LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
February 28.2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Enter through the narrow gate. For wide is the gate and broad is the road that leads to destruction, and many enter through it. But small is the gate and narrow the road that leads to life, and only a few find it
The Narrow and Wide Gates
Matthew07/13-27: “Enter through the narrow gate. For wide is the gate and broad is the road that leads to destruction, and many enter through it. But small is the gate and narrow the road that leads to life, and only a few find it.
True and False Prophets
“Watch out for false prophets. They come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are ferocious wolves. By their fruit you will recognize them. Do people pick grapes from thornbushes, or figs from thistles? Likewise, every good tree bears good fruit, but a bad tree bears bad fruit. A good tree cannot bear bad fruit, and a bad tree cannot bear good fruit. Every tree that does not bear good fruit is cut down and thrown into the fire. Thus, by their fruit you will recognize them.
True and False Disciples
“Not everyone who says to me, ‘Lord, Lord,’ will enter the kingdom of heaven, but only the one who does the will of my Father who is in heaven. Many will say to me on that day, ‘Lord, Lord, did we not prophesy in your name and in your name drive out demons and in your name perform many miracles?’ Then I will tell them plainly, ‘I never knew you. Away from me, you evildoers!’
The Wise and Foolish Builders
“Therefore everyone who hears these words of mine and puts them into practice is like a wise man who built his house on the rock. The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house; yet it did not fall, because it had its foundation on the rock. But everyone who hears these words of mine and does not put them into practice is like a foolish man who built his house on sand. The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house, and it fell with a great crash.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 27-28/2020
Third Coronavirus Case Confirmed in Lebanon
Hassan: Lebanon Strengthens Health Control at Border
Lebanese Embassy in Tehran Calls on Nationals to Travel Back
U.S could sanction corrupt politicians, says Schenker
Lebanon begins ‘historic’ offshore oil drilling amid crisis
Suspected Israeli strike 'kills senior Hezbollah official' in Syria
Aoun Discusses Monetary Situation with Salameh
Bassil Calls for Protecting Oil from Domestic Corruption, Foreign Greed
Aoun Launches Drillship Work, Diab Says Economic Hope Grows
Sayegh on Exploratory Oil Drilling: Do Not Exaggerate
Lebanon to Request 7-day Grace Period for March Eurobonds
Syrian Linked to Hizbullah Killed near Golan Heights
No More Dollars … Lebanon’s Migrant Workers Hit by Financial Crisis
Watani: a Lebanese exhibition for local brands
Berri invites House committees for joint session Wednesday
Bahrain: Suspension of all flights to and from Iraq and Lebanon until further notice
Diab launches Twitter account for citizens to share proposals on confronting challenges
Army chief meets Ambassadors O'Neill, Lamoureux
Rahi, Ferzli talk latest developments
Rampling from Baalbek: Economic times are tough, UK delivering further support
Activists stage sit in outside Justice Palace in soildarity with Raidy, Sadek
Bukhari meets with US Ambassador
Audeh meets UAE ambassador, Hasbani
Borrell upon world NGO Day: EU committed to the protection and empowerment of civic actors
Moucharafieh meets French Foreign Ministry delegation
Lebanon crisis: the Maronite church is at odds with the state/Michael Young/The National/February 27/2020
USA Treasury Designates Martyrs Foundation Companies and Officials as Global Terrorists

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 27-28/2020
Israeli Sources: Netanyahu Did Not Heed Oman's Proposal to Meet Abbas in Muscat
Days before Poll, Israel Approves Nearly 1,800 New Settler Homes
Russia Accuses Turkey of Violating Syria Deal, Supporting Rebels with Artillery
Iraq Parliament Postpones Confidence Vote over Quorum
Turkish army firing on Russian planes in Syria’s Idlib, says Russian state TV
Three more Turkish soldiers killed in Syria’s Idlib: Erdogan
Qaeda, ISIS Affiliates Team Up in West Africa
German President Heads to Khartoum Amid Investment Promises
US blacklists Iraqi Shiite paramilitary chief after base attacks
New Leader Takes Helm of Iranian Proxy Forces in Iraq
Rocket Fire Hits Libyan Capital's Airport
Saudi Arabia halts entry for Umrah in Mecca, tourism from coronavirus-hit states
Iranian Vice President Masoumeh Ebtekar tests positive for coronavirus: Report
1,296 Coronavirus Cases Recorded Globally in 24 Hours
WHO Says Virus at 'Decisive Point' as World Battles Spread

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 27-28/2020
The Iran nuclear front: From deterioration to deadlock/Jerusalem Post/February 27/2020
Israel's Election: What Do the Iranians and Palestinians Want?/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/February 27/2020
Iran's Election Result Has Seriously Undermined the Ayatollahs' Credibility/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/February 27/2020
Islamic Jihad rises with Iranian-Syrian support/Sami Moubayed/The Arab Weekly/February 27/2020
The unintended consequences of Khamenei’s latest power grab/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/February 27/2020
Qatar’s role deepening the Palestinian political crisis/Dr. Hamdan Al-Shehri/Arab News/February 27/2020
Mubarak’s positive traits worth remembering/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/February 27/2020
Why Germany’s political machinations matter to the world/Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/February 27/2020
Turkish-Russian tensions over Syria about to come to a head/Talmiz Ahmad/Arab News/February 27/2020
Coronavirus calculus: Unpacking the economic costs of pandemics/Omar Al-Ubaydli/Al Arabiya/February 27/2020
Lessons from Warren Buffet’s ‘urgent zone’ and managing coronavirus risk/Oliver Schutzmann/Al Arabiya/February 27/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 27-28/2020
Third Coronavirus Case Confirmed in Lebanon
Naharnet/February 27/2020
Lebanon on Thursday confirmed its third coronavirus case, saying the person infected is an Iranian man. A statement issued by the Health Ministry said the 77-year-old Iranian had arrived in Lebanon aboard an Iranian plane that landed in Beirut on February 24. “He was brought from his home via the Lebanese Red Cross once he showed minor symptoms and he is currently in an isolation room at the Rafik Hariri University Hospital,” the statement said, adding that his condition is “stable.”Lebanon’s first two infected people – two Lebanese women -- had arrived aboard another Iranian plane earlier this month.
Thousands of Lebanese travel to Iran every year to visit Shiite holy sites in Qom and other cities. The Rafik Hariri University Hospital, a state-run hospital in Beirut, meanwhile announced Thursday that it examined 40 people for the virus over the past 24 hours, keeping nine of them in the coronavirus ward and asking the others to isolate themselves at home. “35 people meanwhile underwent lab tests and tested negative as eight people were discharged from the coronavirus isolation ward and asked to stay home for 14 days after they tested negative twice,” the hospital added. “Until the moment, there are 12 cases in the quarantine zone, knowing that they have tested negative,” the hospital said, adding that the three infected people in the isolation unit are “in a stable condition and are receiving the necessary treatment.”

Hassan: Lebanon Strengthens Health Control at Border
Naharnet/February 27/2020
Health Minister Hamad Hassan stressed on Thursday that strict measures have been imposed on Lebanon’s land borders to counter the deadly Coronavirus threat that killed thousands globally. “Lebanon is strengthening measures on the border to confront the virus. Today, we will inspect the measures in place at the Masnaa border crossing (with Syria) to protect the Lebanese community,” said Hassan speaking during a visit to Baalbek Government Hospital. On the measures taken at Beirut’s Rafik Hariri International Airport, Hassan said the measures were “highly praised by international sides. Some mishaps must not label the whole process as negative. The health situation in Lebanon is a red line.”A viral Coronavirus outbreak that began in China has infected more than 82,000 people globally. Lebanon has recorded two cases in one week.

Lebanese Embassy in Tehran Calls on Nationals to Travel Back
Naharnet/February 27/2020
The Lebanese Embassy in Iran urged Lebanese nationals there to take “caution” against Coronavirus risks and to book tickets back to Lebanon “as soon as possible.”The embassy asked Lebanese nationals in “various provinces and cities of Iran to exercise the utmost caution because of the Coronavirus threat, and to follow the medical and health instructions announced by the Iranian Ministry of Health and the World Health Organization.”It also called on “Lebanese in Iran who wish to return back home, to book tickets on the next two flights directly from Tehran to Beirut scheduled on March 2 and 4.”The coronavirus epidemic in Iran has cost 26 lives, and 106 more cases of the disease had been confirmed on Thursday, raising the tally of infections to 245, the highest outside China where COVID-19 originated. Lebanon recorded two cases of the disease in one week in Lebanese women who had traveled from Qom in Iran.
Lebanese had asked authorities to ban flights coming from infected countries and to follow suit the measures adopted in other states. On Tuesday, the Cabinet decided to restrict travel to countries witnessing major coronavirus outbreaks and to order a halt to pilgrimage trips.
The viral outbreak began in China and has infected more than 82,000 people globally. The World Health Organization has named the illness COVID-19, referring to its origin late last year and the Coronavirus that causes it.

U.S could sanction corrupt politicians, says Schenker
Annahar Staff/ February 27/ 2020
Speaking to The National, Schenker said that targetting corrupt members of Lebanon's political class is a possibility under the Global Magnitsky Act.
BEIRUT: Assistant Secretary of State David Schenker hinted Wednesday at anti-corruption sanctions targetting Lebanese politicians, as his government intensified pressure on the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah's financial network. Speaking to The National, Schenker said that targetting corrupt members of Lebanon's political class is a possibility under the Global Magnitsky Act. “It is something important for us and something we are working through right now,” he said.  The U.S Treasury had earlier slapped sanctions on 15 Lebanese entities and individuals linked to the group’s Martyrs Foundation. “Hezbollah profits from the sale of goods vital to the Lebanese peoples’ health and economy, such as pharmaceuticals and gasoline,” said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. “The Trump Administration stands with the Lebanese people, and we are committed to exposing and holding accountable Hezbollah’s terror-funding business schemes.”The companies targetted are Atlas Holding, Medical Equipment and Drugs International Corporation (MEDIC), Shahed Pharm, Amana Fuel Co., Amana Plus, Al Kawthar, Amana Sanitary and Paints Company LTD, City Pharma SARL., Global Touristic Services SAL., Sanovera Pharm Company SARL, Mirath and Capital SA.  Three Hezbollah affiliates were also sanctioned: Kassem Mohamad Ali Bazzi, identified as a leader or official of Atlas Holding; Jawad Nur Al Din, identified as a leader or official of the Martyrs Foundation and Sheikh Yusuf Aasi, identified as a leader or official of the Martyrs Foundation. According to the US Treasury, Atlas Holding “banked freely at [the now liquidated] Jammal Trust Bank (JTB), despite their open affiliation with previously designated Hezbollah entities”.
JTB was targetted late last year and is currently undergoing liquidation. The bank denied all charges.

Lebanon begins ‘historic’ offshore oil drilling amid crisis
Aassociated Press/February 27/2020
Experts say it would be years before the country could start extracting and reaping the benefits of any oil found in its waters, should any be found.
Beirut: Lebanon’s president Thursday inaugurated the Mediterranean country’s first offshore exploratory drilling for oil and gas, calling it a “historic day” for the cash-strapped country. Michel Aoun spoke aboard the drillship Tungsten Explorer, which will be conducting the drilling operations of the first exploration well, located approximately 30 kilometers (18 miles) offshore from the capital Beirut. “Today is a happy day for us and for all Lebanese, and we hope the dream we’ve all imagined is realized today. It is a historic day,” he said. The ceremony at sea contrasted sharply with Lebanon’s crippling financial and economic crisis, including a deepening liquidity crunch and soaring public debt. The limits have prompted protests against the financial institutions — including violent attacks on ATM machines and some bank branches. Lebanon has one of the highest debt to GDP ratios in the world, standing at about $87 billion or more than 150% of the country’s GDP. Teetering on economic and financial collapse, the Lebanese government is now considering whether to pay or default on its $1.2 billion Eurobond debt, which matures next month. Lebanon has never defaulted on its debt payments. Defaulting could be costly to the national economy and banking system, which until the recent financial crisis was one of Lebanon’s most profitable and reputable sectors. Experts say it would be years before the country could start extracting and reaping the benefits of any oil found in its waters, should any be found. On the ship, Prime Minister Hassan Diab said the exploratory drilling “offered a ray of light amid the darkness” and hoped it was the beginning of a transformation that would see Lebanon become an oil country. The media office of Lebanon’s Energy Minister said the excavation work will start in a few days, after receiving drilling equipment and supplies from the logistics base at Beirut port. In 2017, Lebanon approved the licenses for an international consortium led by France’s Total, Italy’s ENI and Russia’s Novatek to move forward with offshore oil and gas development for two of 10 blocks in the Mediterranean Sea, including one that is partly claimed by Israel. Total said the first well will be drilled at a depth of 1,500 meters (4,920 feet). The exploration well aims at exploring targets located more than 2,500 meters (8,200 feet) below the sea bed. The drilling of the well is estimated to last two months, after which the drillship will leave Lebanon, Total said. At a later stage that hasn’t yet been scheduled, drilling should begin in Block 9, part of which Israel also claims. A major find in Lebanon’s southernmost waters could raise the possibility of a dispute with Israel.
The U.S. has been mediating between Lebanon and Israel over the nearly 860 square kilometers (330 square miles) of the Mediterranean Sea claimed by both countries.

Suspected Israeli strike 'kills senior Hezbollah official' in Syria
The New Arab/February 27/2020
A suspected Israeli missile strike on a car near the occupied Golan Heights in Syria has reportedly killed a senior Hezbollah official, media reported on Thursday. Syrian state TV reported that an Israeli drone targeted the vehicle near the southern village of Hader in the Quneitra region.
There was no immediate comment from Israel about the attack. Israeli media reported that Aymad Al-Tawil, a senior Hezbollah member, was travelling in the car when it was targeted by the drone. He was involved in organising Hezbollah cells in Syria to launch cross-border attacks on Israel, Channel 13 reported. Israel has repeatedly struck Iran-linked targets in Syria in recent years including militia targets in the east of the country, warning it will not allow the Islamic Republic to build a permanent military presence in the country. A Syrian military statement reported this week that an Israeli attack near Damascus International Airport had taken place and that its air defences confronted fire coming from the direction of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. It said the defenders intercepted or shot down most of them. In a rare acknowledgement of operations in neighbouring Syria, Israel said its warplanes attacked targets late Sunday of the Palestinian militant Islamic Jihad group, south of Damascus, in addition to sites in the Gaza Strip. It said the sites attacked were used for "research and development of armaments" manufactured in Syria and Gaza and had allegedly produced dozens of kilograms (pounds) of rocket fuel each month.

Aoun Discusses Monetary Situation with Salameh
Naharnet/February 27/2020
President Michel Aoun met with Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh at Baabda Palace where discussions focused on the monetary situation in Lebanon, the National News Agency reported on Thursday. The meeting comes as Lebanon grapples with means to address its spiraling economic crisis, a debt burden among the largest in the world and a liquidity crunch that made banks impose tough restrictions on dollar withdrawals. Lebanon’s government faces a $1.2 billion debt payment on Eurobonds that reach maturity on March 9. Economists, investors and government officials are divided over what to do with the March bond payment. Prime Minister Hassan Diab met last this week with a delegation from the International Monetary Fund to discuss how to tackle the country's spiraling economic crisis.

Bassil Calls for Protecting Oil from Domestic Corruption, Foreign Greed
Naharnet/February 27/2020
Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil on Thursday called for protecting Lebanon’s oil and gas resources from “domestic corruption and foreign greed.” Reminiscing the efforts of ten years that eventually led to the launch of offshore oil and gas drilling, Bassil said some parties “ridiculed” the endeavor and voiced skepticism “but the dream has become reality.” Noting that some had sought to “obstruct” the exploration efforts, Bassil stressed in a tweet that “entire Lebanon will benefit” from the development. Earlier in the day, President Michel Aoun inaugurated the country's first offshore exploratory drilling for oil and gas, calling it a "historic day" for cash-strapped Lebanon. Experts say it would be years before the country could start extracting and reaping the benefits of any oil found in its waters, should any be found.

Aoun Launches Drillship Work, Diab Says Economic Hope Grows
Associated Press/Naharnet/February 27/2020
President Michel Aoun on Thursday launched the work of a French ship that will drill for oil and gas in block 4 of Lebanon’s Exclusive Economic Zone. “Today is a happy day for us and for all Lebanese. We hope the dream which we sought to achieve will be realized. Today is a historic day,” Aoun said at the ceremony. Thanking the Total, Eni and Novatek firms for their efforts, the president hoped there will be “cooperation with them in other fields in Lebanon’s Exclusive Economic Zone.”Prime Minister Hassan Diab for his part said that “from the middle of complete darkness, today a large window of light is being opened.”“It increases hope that Lebanon would overcome the severe economic crisis,” he said. “It is a historic day on which we start drilling offshore to turn Lebanon into an oil producing country,” the premier added.
The ceremony at sea contrasted sharply with Lebanon's crippling financial and economic crisis, including a deepening liquidity crunch and soaring public debt. The limits have prompted protests against the financial institutions -- including violent attacks on ATM machines and some bank branches. Lebanon has one of the highest debt to GDP ratios in the world, standing at about $87 billion or more than 150% of the country's GDP. Teetering on economic and financial collapse, the Lebanese government is now considering whether to pay or default on its $1.2 billion Eurobond debt, which matures next month.
Lebanon has never defaulted on its debt payments. Defaulting could be costly to the national economy and banking system, which until the recent financial crisis was one of Lebanon's most profitable and reputable sectors. Experts say it would be years before the country could start extracting and reaping the benefits of any oil found in its waters, should any be found. The media office of Lebanon's Energy Minister said the excavation work will start in a few days, after receiving drilling equipment and supplies from the logistics base at Beirut port. In 2017, Lebanon approved the licenses for an international consortium led by France's Total, Italy's ENI and Russia's Novatek to move forward with offshore oil and gas development for two of 10 blocks in the Mediterranean Sea, including one that is partly claimed by Israel. Total said the first well will be drilled at a depth of 1,500 meters (4,920 feet). The exploration well aims at exploring targets located more than 2,500 meters (8,200 feet) below the sea bed. The drilling of the well is estimated to last two months, after which the drill ship will leave Lebanon, Total said. At a later stage that hasn't yet been scheduled, drilling should begin in Block 9, part of which Israel also claims. A major find in Lebanon's southernmost waters could raise the possibility of a dispute with Israel. The U.S. has been mediating between Lebanon and Israel over the nearly 860 square kilometers (330 square miles) of the Mediterranean Sea claimed by both sides.

Sayegh on Exploratory Oil Drilling: Do Not Exaggerate
Naharnet/February 27/2020
Democratic Gathering Parliamentary Bloc MP Faysal al-Sayegh downplayed what he said are “exaggerations” that Lebanon can be listed among oil- producing countries, saying it is still early to know that.
“What is happening today off the Lebanese coast is exploratory drilling operation to know whether there is gas in commercial quantities or not! Lebanon is still in a ‘Fish in the Sea’ stage,” said Sayegh. The MP was referring to President Michel Aoun’s announcement on Wednesday that Lebanon will witness a “historic day” Thursday with the official launch of offshore oil and gas drilling. Sayegh said Lebanon still has “about $ 50 billion lost in depositors' money, billions of Eurobonds due within 10 days, an international monetary fund shocked by our inability to draw a rescue plan, and indifference to our support by the Gulf brothers, adding to Coronavirus from Iran, and escalating US sanctions.”“So please do not exaggerate the Lebanese way, but instead start devising realistic solutions to our problems with the available practical capabilities, do not trade and mortgage our oil wealth have mercy on our children and future Lebanese generations,” he concluded.

Lebanon to Request 7-day Grace Period for March Eurobonds
Naharnet/February 27/2020
Lebanon plans to request a seven-day grace period to decide on restructuring a plan for it Eurobond debt maturing on March 9, media reports said on Thursday. The government is weighing whether to pay or default on its $1.2 billion Eurobond debt, which matures next month, amid an economic crisis that has sparked months of unrest. A government source who spoke on condition of anonymity said Lebanon is entitled to ask for grace period to give financial advisers more time to devise a restructuring plan for the debt.

Syrian Linked to Hizbullah Killed near Golan Heights
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 27/2020
A Syrian linked to Lebanon's Hizbullah was killed in a cross-border Israeli drone strike Thursday that targeted his car in a village near the annexed Golan Heights, a war monitor said. Syrian Observatory for Human Rights head Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP that the man was killed in Haidar village in Quneitra province of southern Syria. An informed source named the man as Imad Tawil, while Syria's official news agency SANA said he was a civilian resident of Haidar. On Sunday night, Israeli air strikes near Damascus killed six pro-regime fighters, according to the Britain-based Observatory, which relies on a network of sources inside Syria. Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes on regime targets as well as forces of the government's Iranian and Hizbullah allies since the Syrian conflict erupted in 2011.

No More Dollars … Lebanon’s Migrant Workers Hit by Financial Crisis
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 27 February, 2020
Eighteen-year-old domestic worker Mary came to Lebanon to help support her family, but now a financial crisis is preventing her from sending money home to Ethiopia. A crippling liquidity crunch in the Mediterranean country has drastically limited access to dollars, and tens of thousands of migrant workers toiling for remittances in the hard currency are suffering the backlash. On a recent Sunday, Mary strolled down a bustling street in the capital Beirut with her girlfriends, dressed in an elegant outfit of skirt, jacket and ballerinas for her day off.
"I used to earn 400 dollars ... but today I get my salary in Lebanese pounds," she told Agence France Presse. "I can't send money to Ethiopia anymore."Around her, migrant workers of all ages flocked to shops that sell imported food or clothes from home, the women in their Sunday best. Young men sat on the pavement outside calling centres and restaurants, music spilling out onto the street.
The Lebanese pound used to be easily exchangeable for dollars at a fixed rate, but now banks have capped withdrawals of the US currency and its value has plummeted on the parallel market. The de-facto devaluation means Mary has lost at least a third of her salary. But she insisted her employees were not to blame. The problem, she said, "is from the state". In a wave of mass street protests since October 17, Lebanese have railed against what they condemn as a corrupt political class that has mismanaged the country. An estimated quarter of a million domestic workers live in Lebanon, many in conditions that have repeatedly been condemned by their countries of origin and rights group, who point to the fact that many are underage. The large majority of foreign workers hail from Ethiopia, but many also come from the Philippines, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. A sponsorship system known as "kafala" leaves maids, nannies and carers outside the remit of Lebanon's labor law, and at the mercy of their employers. Thousands more foreign men work petrol pumps, clean the streets or labour in private businesses and restaurants.
Before Lebanon's economy went into meltdown, most of these workers earned the equivalent of 150 to 400 dollars a month, often according to nationality. But their salaries have now been de facto slashed. With access to dollars severely limited and the value of the local currency tumbling, many employers have decided to pay their employees in Lebanese pounds. Migrant workers are then forced to exchange their local wages into foreign currency at a substantial loss on the black market. "What will I do?" Mary asked. "My siblings are in school and I'm supposed to help my family, but now I can't."
After years of political turmoil, Lebanon's economy is collapsing, prices have soared, and businesses are struggling to stay open. Amandeep Singh, 23, has been working for four years in a plant nursery north of Beirut and sent money home to India.
He says his salary has suddenly been slashed from 500 to 360 dollars after his employer decided to pay him half in pounds. He was told the situation would improve soon. "I'll wait and see," Singh said. But "if there are no more dollars, there will be nothing left for me in Lebanon. I will go home to India."The crisis saw more than 1,000 Filipinos flock to their embassy in December to sign up for free repatriation. The mostly female domestic workers, some with children in tow, signed up for the free flight. Jasmin Bighoun, 32-year-old female domestic worker from Bangladesh, said she used to be able to send 300 dollars home to the family, but now that has dropped to just 150. "There are no more dollars and everything is more expensive. It's not the same as before, life is hard," she said. If necessary, she and her husband will pack up and return to Bangladesh, she said. Other migrant workers have already made up their minds.
Nav, an 18-year-old from Ethiopia who works as a cleaner for hourly wages, said the sacrifices are no longer worth it. "They pay me in pounds," she said. "What's the point of staying? I want to leave."

Watani: a Lebanese exhibition for local brands
Annahar/February 27/2020
the crisis has certainly left the country deeply ravaged. This is especially true when it comes to local brands and businesses.
BEIRUT: Lebanon has been facing a deteriorating economic crisis that has affected all of its industries. Whether it’s the dismissal of thousands of employees in the service industry, or the shortage in pharmaceuticals and food staples like bread, the crisis has certainly left the country deeply ravaged. This is especially true when it comes to local brands and businesses. However, Lebanese brands are taking action. For the first time in Lebanon, an all-Lebanese. Exhibition named Watani is taking place to showcase Lebanese brands from various sectors and highlight their achievements. Organized by AR Events in collaboration with the Association of Lebanese Industrialists (ALI), Watani will gather over 100 Lebanese brands including big names like Ghandour, Poppins, Snips, Cosmaline, and Fattal group. “The idea of [Watani] came out of the need of the market,” Rouwayda Tahtouh, one of the organizers, told Annahar. “When we saw that we had problems importing products and were thus suffering a shortage of supplies and raw materials, we knew it was time to rely more on local production.”Watani will be a three-day exhibition taking place on 6,7,8 March at AVA Venue Achrafieh, and will include specific-themed conferences organized by the showcasing brands. Entrance fee is 7,000LL, and attendees get a 5,000LL voucher that allows them to buy any item they want. “This way, we guarantee that every attendee will be purchasing an item no matter how cheap it may be and directly support the economy,” said Tahtouh.

Berri invites House committees for joint session Wednesday
NNA/February 27/2020
Speaker of the House, Nabih Berri, has called the parliamentary committees of Finance, Foreign Affairs, Economy, Defense, and Energy, to convene in a joint session at 10:00 am on forthcoming Wednesday.

Bahrain: Suspension of all flights to and from Iraq and Lebanon until further notice
NNA /February 27/2020
The Civil Aviation Affairs (CAA) in the Kingdom of Bahrain has declared the suspension of all flights to and from the Republic of Iraq and the Lebanese Republic until further notification, with immediate effect.
The CAA asks all citizens and residents of Bahrain who are at present in regions influenced by the Coronavirus (COVID 19) and who were planning to come back to the Kingdom of Bahrain to call the accompanying number +973 17227555. The CAA attests that it is liaising with all authorities to take the vital measures considering COVID-19. All arrivals and appearances to Bahrain International Airport suspected of infection will be tested and, if seen as experiencing the condition, are instantly shifted to assigned centers for segregation and treatment.
The Civil Aviation Affairs placed emphasis on the need to abide by established health guidelines in order to battle against COVID-19. ----Bahrain News Agency

Diab launches Twitter account for citizens to share proposals on confronting challenges
NNA/February 27/2020
Prime Minister, Dr. Hassan Diab, has launched a new Twitter account for the Lebanese citizens to communicate their suggestions and ideas on confronting challenges and building a better Lebanon, as aspired by all.
The page entitled "Hassan Diab Official Team for Plans & Suggestions" holds the motto "Communciate with us to Make Your Voice Heard."

Army chief meets Ambassadors O'Neill, Lamoureux
NNA/February 27/2020
Army Commander Joseph Aoun on Thursday welcomed at his Yarzeh office Women Affairs, Peace and Security Ambassador, Jacqueline O'Neill, accompanied by Canadian Ambassador to Lebanon, Emmanuelle Lamoureux, and Canadian Military Attaché David Jones. Discussions reportedly touched on the cooperation relations between the armies of both countries.

Rahi, Ferzli talk latest developments
NNA/February 27/2020
Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Beshara Rahi received Thursday in Bkerki Deputy House Speaker, Elie Ferzli, with whom he discussed the current general situation and latest developments. Speaking to reporters following the meeting, Ferzli said talks featured high on the economic condition in the country, as well as on the independence of the judiciary and the recovery of stolen funds.

Rampling from Baalbek: Economic times are tough, UK delivering further support
NNA/February 27/2020
During his fourth visit to Baalbek, British Ambassador Chris Rampling toured ongoing UK funded projects, and inaugurated new ones, underlining the UK's unswerving support to Baalbek and its surrounding areas. Accompanied by Governor Bashir Khodr, Ambassador Rampling attended the Lebanese Enterprise and Employment Programme's 'UK Support To Baalbek' event for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) at the Palmyra hotel, where he also announced the launch of a new mobile tourism application for Baalbek. Both projects - funded by UK aid - are aimed at creating economic opportunities and jobs, and boosting tourism to the City of the Sun, and the surrounding areas.
Under the UK-Lebanon Year of Education 2020 launched in October 2019, Ambassador Rampling visited Al Bashaer High School run by Al Mabarrat Association to see the impact of UK support designed to raise the quality of education delivered to students. The British Council has been supporting Al Mabarrat through the Connecting Classrooms programme since 2009. Received by Col Salman Salman, Ambassador Rampling visited Four Land Border Regiment and a Forward Operating Base in Baalbek and saw how UK support to the Lebanese Army is securing the borders with Syria, as the sole legitimate defenders of Lebanon. Since 2019, Lebanon had complete authority over its border with Syria. UK support to the Lebanese Army since 2011 has reached over $92 million.
At the end of his visit, Ambassador Rampling said: "I am pleased to be in Baalbek again, my fourth visit since I arrived, a testimony of the importance we place to support the city and surrounding areas. Baalbek represents a breadth of our UK aid programmes: through education, supporting the economy, boosting tourism and above all security which is key to the success of all our projects.
The UK recognises the deep economic challenges facing local businesses and municipalities here in Baalbek and across Lebanon. We recognise the need for urgent action by the Government of Lebanon to address urgent and mounting economic pressures. We know the economic challenges are stark, and we recognise the burden of refugees that Lebanese communities continue to bear. Since 2014, UK aid's contribution to the Baalbek-Hermel region has been over $3.5 million, reaching over 125,000 beneficiaries.
We are here to deliver more. Today we are investing further in Baalbek and surrounding areas, through the Lebanon Enterprise and Employment Programme to introduce grants to SMEs, the backbone of Lebanon' economy and crucial to the country's economic recovery. We are keen to work more closely with its residents to improve access to services, and to create further job opportunities.
I'm also delighted to launch with Governor Bashir Khodr a new mobile tourism application for Baalbek to further support the economy, boost tourism to this spectacular city, and encourage more tourists whether from Lebanon or abroad to learn about its remarkable history. The new app can be downloaded by Android users, and will be available on the Apple Store in due course.
We will continue to support Lebanon through our programmes that have achieved a great deal reaching over $250 million in 2019 - in security, prosperity, education and stability."
*British Embassy Press Release

Activists stage sit in outside Justice Palace in soildarity with Raidy, Sadek
NNA/February 27/2020
A number of protesters on Thursday gathered outside the Justice Palace, in solidarity with activist Gino Raidy and Media Figure Dima Sadek, NNA field reporter said. MP Paula Yaacoubian and several social media activists were also present.

Bukhari meets with US Ambassador
NNA/February 27/2020
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon, Walid bin Abdullah Bukhari, on Thursday welcomed at his Yarzeh residence, US Ambassador to Lebanon, Elizabeth Richard, upon the end of her diplomatic mission in Lebanon.
Both Ambassadors reportedly broached the most recent developments on the regional and international scenes, as per a statement by the Saudi Embassy Press Office. The pair also seized the occasion to exchange views on a number of issues of mutual concern. Ambassador Bukhari wished the outgoing US Ambassador success in her future mission.

Audeh meets UAE ambassador, Hasbani
NNA/February 27/2020
Greek Orthodox Archbishop of Beirut and its Suburbs, Elias Audeh, on Thursday met with UAE Ambassador to Lebanon, Hamad Saeed Al Shamsi, with whom he discussed the current situation in the country. Archbishop Audeh then welcomed former Vice Prime Minister, Ghassan Hasbani.

Borrell upon world NGO Day: EU committed to the protection and empowerment of civic actors
NNA/February 27/2020
Upon the world day of non-governmental organisations, High Representative of the European Union, Josep Borrell, maintained that the EU is committed to the protection and empowerment of civil society actors, and lauded their contributions to human rights and democracy.
Following is Borrell's statement:
"On world Non-Governmental Organisation Day, celebrated on 27 February, the European Union applauds the fundamental contribution made by civil society organisations to the promotion of human rights, good governance, democracy and the rule of law. As such, they are key partners for the successful implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. We are witnessing an unprecedented crackdown on civil society in many countries - restrictive legislation on foreign funding, restrictions for registration or association of civil society organisations, anti-protest laws, gagging laws, laws that criminalise online dissent and expression, the blocking of access to websites and social media and, in some cases, violent attacks and harassment.
This trend needs to stop.
The EU is committed to the protection and empowerment of civic actors, including human rights defenders, and to the promotion of space for civil society. We will continue to meet with human rights defenders, monitor their trials, visit them in detention, and raise their cases with governments. The EU also supports key international actors, such as UN Special Rapporteurs on human rights defenders, freedom of association, and freedom of expression. The EU is the world's largest donor to civil society. The European Instrument for Democracy and Human rights (EIDHR) is one of the largest EU instruments dedicated to supporting civil society. Testament to its importance, the European Commission has proposed to keep its level of funding under next financial framework at a high level, with €1.5 billion for 2021-2027. This instrument facilitates direct cooperation with isolated or marginalised civil society actors, including through the allocation of direct grants to those operating in particularly difficult human rights and democracy contexts. Since 2005, the EU has supported more than 30, 000 human rights defenders. Today and every day, the EU stands up for a strong and pluralistic civil society. We will continue to promote a safe and enabling environment, in which civil society can operate free from hindrance and insecurity."

Moucharafieh meets French Foreign Ministry delegation
NNA/February 27/2020
Social Affairs Minister, Professor Ramzi Moucharafieh, received this Thursday in his office at the ministry, a delegation from the French Foreign Ministry, chaired by the Director General of the French Office for the Protection of Refugees and Stateless Persons, Julien Boucher, with whom he discussed the current situation of refugees in Lebanon and the work of the Ministry with the concerned international and local organizations in this dossier.

Lebanon crisis: the Maronite church is at odds with the state
Michael Young/The National/February 27/2020
Beirut bishop's terse exchange with the country's Maronite president echoes the Christian community's unhappiness with the elite
In early February, on the occasion of Saint Maron’s Day – celebrating the founder of Lebanon’s Maronite Church, the spiritual authority of the country’s largest Christian community – the bishop of Beirut Paul Abdel-Sater, spoke at a mass in the presence of President Michel Aoun and other senior officials. The bishop’s remarks said a great deal about how the Maronite religious hierarchy views the months-long protests against the political class and its endemic corruption.
“Do the tens of thousands of Lebanese who elected you not deserve a correction to the political, economic and financial imbalance?” Bishop Abdel-Sater asked officials at the ceremony. “Does your conscience not move you at the sight of a mother wailing over her son, who committed suicide because he was unable to provide for his children?” He requested that the officials “work with the true revolutionaries [protesting the current situation] day and night" to resolve Lebanon’s crisis, “otherwise, the most honourable thing to do is to resign".
The bishop’s remarks echoed widespread popular disgust with Lebanon’s politicians. Yet it was still unusual to see a Maronite clergyman so boldly take officials to task in public, in particular Mr Aoun, who is himself Maronite.
The irony is that Mr Aoun and his son-in-law Gebran Bassil have always portrayed themselves as purveyors of a Christian revival in Lebanon
Yet there was good reason for Bishop Abdel-Sater doing what he did, at a time when the Maronite patriarch, Bishara Al Rai, has also supported Lebanon’s protest movement. The church is alarmed that the catastrophic social and economic situation the country’s political elite has caused is driving youths to leave the country. As a minority, Christians will be hit particularly hard by this trend.
The church is correct in regarding Lebanon’s problems as having existential implications for the country's Christians, but also in many ways for Lebanon itself. Even the most optimistic estimates suggest that it will take years for the country to begin emerging from its current predicaments, which means many more young people will leave to go abroad – a process already well under way before the crisis began.
The irony is that Mr Aoun and his son-in-law Gebran Bassil have always portrayed themselves as purveyors of a Lebanese Christian revival. Yet a cursory look at the presidents’ record would indicate a very different reality. When he headed a military government in 1988-1990, Mr Aoun embarked on a pair of conflicts with the Syrian military, then with the Christian Lebanese Forces militia, which provoked a mass migration of Christians at the time.
Since then, the president and Mr Bassil have also contributed to creating a highly negative climate in the country that has again undermined confidence. With Hezbollah’s support, they blocked parliament and much of the political system for more than two years between 2014 and 2016 as blackmail for Mr Aoun to be elected president. That period was one in which the country was dangerously adrift, economic conditions deteriorated, and institutions ceased to function effectively.
Mr Aoun has rarely allowed Lebanon’s interests to interfere with his personal ambitions. However, for a president who has claimed to be a champion of Christians to be so explicitly criticised by a senior member of the Maronite clergy only confirmed the extent to which Mr Aoun’s presidential mandate has been perceived as a fiasco by all but the president’s most credulous supporters.
Christians are estimated at roughly 30 per cent of the Lebanese population, though a census has not been held since 1932. Some figures go higher. However, the reality is that the dysfunctional Lebanese system, dominated by a corrupt sectarian political class and a militarised party, Hezbollah, which follows an Iranian agenda, offers no appeal to many young Lebanese. When youths graduate, their first impulse is to leave the country to find work elsewhere.
These dynamics have been particularly damaging to Christians, given their lower demographics. The reason is that those who leave Lebanon usually do so permanently, because there are few interesting job opportunities open to them at home and the economy often fails to reward innovation and initiative. Moreover, given the sectarian leaders’ predatory lock on the political system, it is virtually impossible to break the prevailing status quo.
The Maronite church, though often seen as a bastion of rigid conservatism, has been an instrument of profound change in Lebanon’s history. During the 18th and 19th centuries, the church’s educational institutions were responsible for creating a class of educated people willing to challenge the prominent lordly families, thereby injecting social dynamism into the community against a feudal order.
The Maronites were not the only church to do so, but the reality is that the clergy has not been systematically aligned with the political elite, or even with the Maronite president. For instance, during the civil war of 1958, the patriarch at the time, Paul Peter Meouchi, strongly opposed the president, Camille Chamoun. In other words, the Maronite church has a legacy of opposition to the political elite on which to build as it seeks to defend its community’s presence in Lebanon.
In his remarks, Bishop Abdel-Sater was making a fundamental point, namely that the Maronite community is not defined by the whims of its politicians. Yet all the signs today are that it is threatened by the folly of its most dominant leaders.
**Michael Young is editor of Diwan, the blog of the Carnegie Middle East programme, in Beirut

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY
PRESS RELEASES
USA Treasury Designates Martyrs Foundation Companies and Officials as Global Terrorists
5182
February 26, 2020
Washington – The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) today designated as Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs) three Lebanon-based officials and 12 Lebanon-based entities linked to the Martyrs Foundation, part of Hizballah’s support network. Specifically, OFAC designated Atlas Holding for being owned or controlled by the Martyrs Foundation, as well as senior Atlas official Kassem Mohamad Ali Bazzi, and ten Atlas-affiliated companies. Jawad Nur-al-Din and Sheikh Yusuf Aasi were also designated, pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13224, as amended, for being leaders or officials of the Lebanon-based Martyrs Foundation, which was designated for supporting terrorism in July 2007. Mirath S.A.L., which is owned or controlled by Jawad Nur-al-Din, was also designated today.
“Hizballah profits from the sale of goods vital to the Lebanese peoples’ health and economy, such as pharmaceuticals and gasoline,” said Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin. “The Trump Administration stands with the Lebanese people, and we are committed to exposing and holding accountable Hizballah’s terror-funding business schemes.”
Hizballah put the Lebanese banking sector at risk through its deep coordination with Jammal Trust Bank, which was designated as an SDGT in August 2019. Atlas Holding — a company controlled by the Martyrs Foundation and subordinate to Hizballah’s Executive Council — along with several of its subsidiaries banked freely at Jammal Trust Bank despite their open affiliation with previously designated Hizballah entities. In fact, Jammal Trust Bank facilitated hundreds of millions of dollars in transactions through the Lebanese financial system on behalf of Atlas Holding and its subsidiaries, and aided Hizballah officials in evading scrutiny on these accounts from Lebanese banking authorities.
Hizballah was designated by the Department of State as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in October 1997 and as an SDGT pursuant to E.O. 13224 in October 2001. As noted in previous Treasury actions, the Lebanon office of the Martyrs Foundation acts as an Iranian parastatal organization and is an integral element of Hizballah’s global terror support network. It provides services such as financial support to the families of killed or imprisoned Hizballah members, as well as to families of suicide bombers from HAMAS and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
ATLAS HOLDING
Atlas Holding is owned or controlled by the Martyrs Foundation.
Atlas Holding owns or controls at least ten companies in numerous sectors in Lebanon, including fuel, pharmaceuticals, tourism, and clothing. According to corporate registration information, the Martyrs Foundation and its senior official Sheikh Yusuf Aasi are listed as founders of Atlas Holdings. As of late 2017, Atlas was among several entities identified as being subordinate to Hizballah’s Executive Council, which takes advantage of its entities’ legitimate and civilian appearance to conceal money transfers for Hizballah’s military use. Although the funding from these Executive Council companies went into Hizballah’s coffers and military activities, Hizballah hoped that the seemingly legitimate business funds could protect Hizballah from sanctions.
KASSEM MOHAMAD ALI BAZZI
Kassem Mohamad Ali Bazzi is a leader or official of Atlas Holding.
Kassem Mohamad Ali Bazzi serves as the CEO and Chairman of the Board of Atlas Holding as of 2019, and is the company’s largest shareholder. Additionally, according to corporate registration information, he serves as an official for several of Atlas Holdings’ subsidiaries, including Amana, Amana Plus, Medic, Shahed Pharm, City Pharma, al Kawthar, and Global Touristic Services.
JAWAD NUR-AL-DIN
Jawad Nur-al-Din is a leader and official of the Martyrs Foundation.
Jawad Nur-al-Din serves as the Director General of the Lebanon-based Martyrs Foundation. In this capacity, he oversees payments to the families of Hizballah fighters who have been killed, and has coordinated these payments with senior Hizballah officials such as SDGT Hashim Safi al-Din. As a senior official of the Lebanon-based Martyrs Foundation, he works closely with senior Hizballah officials and publicly represents the Martyrs Foundation alongside senior Hizballah officials including Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Hashim Safi al-Din was designated pursuant to E.O. 13224 in May 2017. Hassan Nasrallah was designated pursuant to E.O. 12947 in January 1995, pursuant to E.O. 13582 in September 2012, and pursuant to E.O. 13224 in 2018.
SHEIKH YUSUF AASI
Sheikh Yusuf Aasi is a leader or official of the Martyrs Foundation.
In his role with the Martyrs Foundation, Sheikh Yusuf Aasi has publicly advocated for the foundation in light of U.S. sanctions against Hizballah and the rising number of Hizballah operatives killed in Syria. Additionally, Sheikh Yusuf Aasi is one of the founders of Atlas Holdings, which is being designated today for being owned or controlled by the Martyrs Foundation.
MEDICAL EQUIPMENT & DRUGS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (MEDIC)
Medic is owned or controlled by Atlas Holding. According to corporate registration information, founders of Medic include both Atlas and Bazzi. Atlas is the majority shareholder for the company, and Bazzi, who holds fewer shares, serves as the Director General, Chairman, and authorized signatory for the company.
SHAHED PHARM
Shahed Pharm is owned or controlled by Atlas Holding. According to corporate registration information, senior Martyrs Foundation official Jawad Nur-al-Din is listed as one of its founders, along with Atlas Holdings, and Kassem Mohamad Ali Bazzi is listed as a shareholder, director, and authorized signatory for the company.
AMANA FUEL CO.
Amana Fuel Co. is owned or controlled by Atlas Holding. According to corporate registration information, Atlas Holdings controls the majority of shares in the company, and Kassem Mohamad Ali Bazzi is listed as a founder, director, and authorized signatory for the company.
AMANA PLUS CO.
Amana Plus Co. is owned or controlled by Atlas Holding. According to corporate registration information, Atlas Holdings is a founder of, and the largest shareholder for, Amana Plus Co. Jawad Nur-al-Din and Kassem Mohamad Ali Bazzi are also listed as company founders, with Bazzi also serving as the Director General, Chairman, and authorized signatory of the company.
AL KAWTHAR
Al Kawthar is owned or controlled by Atlas Holding. Also of note, corporate registration information lists Atlas Holding and Martyrs Foundation CEO Jawad Nur-al-Din as founder of Al Kawthar, and Atlas is a majority shareholder in the company.
AMANA SANITARY AND PAINTS COMPANY L.T.D.
Amana Sanitary and Paints Company L.T.D. is owned or controlled by Atlas Holding. According to corporate registration information, Atlas and Jawad Nur-al-Din are both founders of the company, with the majority of the company’s stock being allocated to Atlas.
CITY PHARMA S.A.R.L.
City Pharma S.A.R.L. is owned or controlled by Atlas Holding. According to corporate registration information, Atlas is a founder of the company along with Jawad Nur-al-Din, and Kassem Mohamad Ali Bazzi was the authorized signatory for the company.
GLOBAL TOURISTIC SERVICES S.A.L.
Global Touristic Services S.A.L. is owned or controlled by Atlas Holding. According to corporate registration information, the company was founded by Atlas, Kassem Mohamad Ali Bazzi, and Jawad Nur-al-Din. Additionally, Atlas is the majority shareholder in the company, Kassem Mohamad Ali Bazzi is the authorized signatory, and Jawad Nur-al-Din and Kassem Mohamad Ali Bazzi are members of the board of directors.
MIRATH S.A.L.
Mirath is owned or controlled by Jawad Nur-al-Din. According to corporate registration information, Jawad Nur-al-Din is the chairman of the board, majority shareholder, as well as a founder of, and authorized signatory for, Mirath S.A.L.
SANOVERA PHARM COMPANY SARL
Sanovera Pharm Company SARL is owned or controlled by Atlas Holding.
CAPITAL S.A.L.
Capital S.A.L. is owned or controlled by Atlas Holding.
SANCTIONS IMPLICATIONS
The Treasury Department continues to prioritize disrupting the full range of Hizballah’s illicit financial activity, including its financial support network.
As a result of today’s action, all property and interests in property of these targets that are in the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons must be blocked and reported to OFAC. OFAC’s regulations generally prohibit all dealings by U.S. persons or within the United States (including transactions transiting the United States) that involve any property or interests in property of blocked or designated persons. In addition, persons that engage in certain transactions with the individuals and entities designated today may themselves be exposed to sanctions or subject to an enforcement action.
Furthermore, the individuals and entities designated today are subject to secondary sanctions pursuant to E.O. 13224, as amended. Pursuant to this authority, OFAC can prohibit or impose strict conditions on the opening or maintaining in the United States of a correspondent account or a payable-through account by a foreign financial institution.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 27-28/2020
Israeli Sources: Netanyahu Did Not Heed Oman's Proposal to Meet Abbas in Muscat
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 27 February, 2020
An Israeli diplomat revealed that Oman's late Sultan Qaboos bin Said suggested on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to host a secret summit with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. This came during Netanyahu's visit to Muscat in October 2018, however, the latter did not approve the proposal. The source told Channel 13 that Netanyahu was aware that his invitation to Oman was to discuss Sultan Qaboos's initiative but he had no plans to approve it. He took advantage of the invitation to take pictures with Qaboos and also took his wife Sara with him, breaking Muscat's protocol on foreign leaders' visits. According to Israeli officials, Netanyahu listened to Qaboos's plan but did not give a firm commitment to it–yet, Abbas had agreed to the proposal a few days earlier during his trip to Muscat. In Feb. 2019, Netanyahu met Omani Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi, on the sidelines of the conference organized by the US in Warsaw to mobilize global opinion against Iran. During the event, Bin Alawi presented clarifications on the proposed plan, however, Netanyahu showed no positive response.

Days before Poll, Israel Approves Nearly 1,800 New Settler Homes
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 27/2020
Israel approved nearly 1,800 new homes in settlements in the occupied West Bank Thursday, the country’s right-wing Defense Minister announced, four days ahead of a general election.The ministry said a planning committee "approved the construction of 1,800 housing units, according to the proposal of the Minister of Defense Naftali Bennett", in a statement that quoted figures adding up to slightly below this amount.

Russia Accuses Turkey of Violating Syria Deal, Supporting Rebels with Artillery
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 27/2020
The Russian defense ministry on Thursday accused Turkey of violating a peace deal for Syria's Idlib by supporting rebels with artillery fire and drones. "In violation of the Sochi agreements in the Idlib de-escalation zone the Turkish side is continuing to support illegal armed groups with artillery fire and the use" of drones to target the Syrian troops, the ministry said, quoting the head of the Russian Reconciliation Center for Syria, Oleg Zhuravlev.

Iraq Parliament Postpones Confidence Vote over Quorum
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 27/2020
Iraq's divided parliament Thursday postponed a confidence vote for the government of prime minister-designate Mohammad Allawi over lack of quorum, plunging the country deeper into political uncertainty. The vote has been a key demand of Allawi as well as well populist cleric Moqtada Sadr who had threatened to organize mass protests outside parliament unless lawmakers backed the government in a vote this week. After multiple meetings between parliamentary groups and key officials, including Allawi, parliament speaker Mohammed Halbusi postponed the session until Saturday. The political wrangling coincides with unprecedented protests since October 1 in the capital and Iraq's south, demanding a complete government overhaul. Prompting objections from protesters, political parties nominated Allawi as a consensus candidate this month, after President Barham Saleh threatened to unilaterally choose a premier if they failed to agree. But two months after outgoing premier Adel Abdel Mahdi's government resigned under pressure from the street, lawmakers remain divided over the distribution of cabinet posts. Another bone of contention is the fate of the 5,200 U.S. troops stationed in Iraq, which Shiite lawmakers have voted to expel, over objection from their Sunni and Kurdish counterparts.

Turkish army firing on Russian planes in Syria’s Idlib, says Russian state TV
Reuters, Moscow/Thursday, 27 February 2020
Russian state television said on Thursday Turkish military specialists in Syria’s Idlib region were using shoulder-fired missiles to try to shoot down Russian and Syrian military aircraft. The assertion, aired during a report from Idlib on the Rossiya 24 channel, came as Turkish and rebel officials said Syrian rebels, backed by the Turkish military, had seized the town of Nairab in Idlib.“Their own and Russian planes are saving the lives of Syrian troops in a literal sense,” said the Rossiya 24 report. “Syrian and Russian planes are stopping the rebels again and again. But the sky above Idlib is also dangerous. The rebels and Turkish specialists are actively using portable air defense systems.”It said Russian and Syrian planes were therefore being forced to take counter-measures after carrying out bombing runs on rebel positions.

Three more Turkish soldiers killed in Syria’s Idlib: Erdogan
Reuters/Thursday, 27 February 2020
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday three more Turkish soldiers had been killed in Syria’s Idlib region, where Turkey’s military is backing Syrian opposition fighters against government forces, but that developments there were turning in Ankara’s favor.
“We have three martyrs, let them rest in peace. But on the other hand, the regime’s losses are very big,” Erdogan said in a speech. Including the latest three deaths, 21 members of the Turkish forces have been killed in Idlib this month.

Qaeda, ISIS Affiliates Team Up in West Africa
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 27 February, 2020
The only place in the world where militants linked to al-Qaeda and ISIS are cooperating is in West Africa's sprawling Sahel region, giving the extremists greater depth as they push into new areas, according to the commander of the US military's special forces in Africa. "I believe that if it‘s left unchecked it could very easily develop into a great threat to the West and the United States,” US Air Force Brig. Gen. Dagvin Anderson told The Associated Press in an interview this week. The leader of US Special Operations Command Africa described the threat even as the Pentagon considers reducing the US military presence in Africa. Experts have long worried about collaboration between al-Qaeda and ISIS. While the cooperation in the Sahel is not currently a direct threat to the US or the West, “it’s very destabilizing to the region,” Anderson said.
He spoke on the sidelines of the US military's annual counterterrorism exercise in West Africa, currently the most active region for extremists on the continent. The alarming new collaboration in the Sahel between affiliates of al-Qaea and ISIS is a result of ethnic ties in the region that includes Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. "Whereas in other parts of the world they have different objectives and a different point of view that tends to bring ISIS and al-Qaeda into conflict, here they’re able to overcome that and work for a common purpose,” Anderson said, emphasizing that it's a local phenomenon.
The cooperation allows the extremist groups to appeal to a wider audience in a largely rural region where government presence is sparse and frustration with unemployment is high. The past year has seen a surge in deadly violence in the Sahel, with more than 2,600 people killed and more than half a million displaced in Burkina Faso alone. Al-Qaeda is the deeper threat both in the region and globally, Anderson said. The French lead the military effort in the Sahel with more than 5,000 forces and they hope to bring in more European partners. But the French have urged the US to reconsider any cuts to its already small military footprint of about 1,400 personnel in West Africa. The US has about 6,000 personnel on the continent. Anderson countered that the US is already doing a lot in the Sahel through the State Department, a large USAID presence and investment. “Instead of looking at the size of the presence, I think we should look at what is the appropriate engagement across the government, from all levels,” he said. With very small engagement, the US can still help countries develop the capabilities to build coalitions and share intelligence, Anderson said. “It’s going to take all these nations working together, but also it’s going to have to be African solutions to an African problem,” he said.

German President Heads to Khartoum Amid Investment Promises
Khartoum - Ahmed Younis/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 27 February, 2020
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will arrive in Sudan's capital Khartoum on Thursday in a visit for which the Sudanese transitional government has prepared a rich agenda. This will mark the first visit of a high-level European official in decades. Steinmeier will arrive at the head of a delegation of businessmen, investors and German Development Minister Gerd Muller who visited Sudan earlier this month. Germany sees that ‘time should not be wasted’ and investments in Sudan must kick off the soonest, especially with the German parliament (Bundestag) laying grounds for these plans through annulling a law that prohibited German investments after the coup that brought Omar Bashir to the presidency. The German delegation will seek investment opportunities without wasting time, stressed Muller before his visit. Earlier, Germany announced allocating EUR80 million to assist the transitional government in Sudan. The aid will be invested in energy, fuels, infrastructure, training, agriculture, water and fields that empower women and youths. Sudan pins high hopes on German investments and sees them as a key to more western and European investments. They may even pave the way to removing sanctions hindering economic development. Information Minister Faisal Saleh told Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper that the government is interested in the president’s visit because it is the first for a high-level European official in years. Saleh described Germany as a significant state and its importance is reinforced with its presence in the EU. He highlighted the historic ties between Germany and Sudan in diverse fields. He added that when Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok visited Germany, the two discussed electrical energy and renewable energy in Sudan. Hamdok also expressed the will to revive vocational training centers in Germany. In this context, Head of Delegation of the European Union to Sudan Robert van den Dool announced that EU High Representative Josep Borrell will arrive in Sudan next Saturday on an official two-day visit. Borrell will attend a ministerial meeting of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in Khartoum. Sudan is chairing the IGAD, the head of the delegation revealed in a press released that Asharq Al-Awsat received a copy of. He will also hold meetings with Sudanese leaders including President of the Sudanese Sovereign Council Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and Hamdok. He will also visit Al Fashir, where he will meet international organizations, UN agencies, internally displaced people, women and young leaders in Sudan. He will also deliver a speech at the University of Khartoum on the anticipated EU role in the country and meet with Sudanese young men and women who led the Sudanese peaceful revolution.

US blacklists Iraqi Shiite paramilitary chief after base attacks
AFP/February 27/ 2020
Washington (AFP) - The United States on Wednesday declared a powerful Iraqi Shiite paramilitary leader to be a terrorist after a series of rocket attacks, vowing to step up pressure on his ally Iran.
The State Department listed Ahmad al-Hamidawi, secretary general of armed faction Kataib Hezbollah, as a "specially designated global terrorist," freezing any US assets he may hold and making US transactions with him a crime.
The group as a whole, which has a close relationship with Iran, has been designated as a terrorist group by the United States since 2009.
"Today we are intensifying our pressure on this terrorist group," Nathan Sales, the State Department counterterrorism chief, told a news conference. He charged that the group's goal is to "advance the Iranian regime goal of turning Iraq into a vassal state."
The State Department pointed to Kataib Hezbollah's series of rocket attacks including fire on December 27 against an Iraqi base that houses US troops which killed a US citizen contractor.
The incident sent tensions soaring, with the United States bombing paramilitary targets and eventually killing Iran's most powerful general, Qassem Soleimani, in a drone attack at the Baghdad airport.
The State Department also pointed to indications that the group was behind deadly sniper attacks against demonstrators in October in Baghdad.
Nationwide protests, triggered by economic concerns, brought down a government that had close ties with Iran.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Sunday spoke by telephone with Iraq's designated next prime minister, Mohammad Allawi, and urged the government to protect US forces.
The Soleimani killing led the caretaker government to seek the departure of the US military, a request rejected by President Donald Trump who threatened sanctions if troops are forced out.

New Leader Takes Helm of Iranian Proxy Forces in Iraq
Behnam Ben Taleblu/FDD/February 27/2020
Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs) – the paramilitary organization that encompasses the country’s pro-Iran and Shiite militias – named Abdulaziz al-Mohammadawi, also known as Abu Fadak, as its new leader last week. Like his late predecessor, Abu Fadak is loyal to the interests of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRGC-QF).
Abu Fadak replaces Jamal Jafar al-Ibrahimi, known by his popular nom de guerre, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who was killed in January by a U.S. drone strike, along with IRGC-QF commander Qassem Soleimani. Muhandis’ career personified Iran’s goal of exporting its Islamic Revolution abroad. He fought with Iran against Ba’athist Iraq during the 1980–1988 Iran-Iraq War; participated in Iran-backed terror operations in Kuwait in the 1980s; targeted U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq after 2003; and provided material support to designated terrorist groups, such as the IRGC-QF, Lebanese Hezbollah, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Prior to becoming a PMU commander, Muhandis founded one of the most lethal pro-Iran militias in Iraq, Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH), which carried out the December 2019 round of military provocations that culminated in the U.S. killing of Soleimani. Muhandis was a close associate of Soleimani, having fought in numerous conflicts with the Quds Force leader. Similarly, photos can be found on social media showing Abu Fadak leading Soleimani in prayer as well as being held and kissed by him.
Like many Shiite Islamists, Abu Fadak was an opponent of the Saddam Hussein regime, and as early as 1983, reportedly began to work in an intelligence capacity in Iraq for the Badr Corps, Iran’s oldest proxy. During the 2003–2011 U.S. war in Iraq, Abu Fadak joined Iran’s effort to bleed American and coalition forces. The limited open-source material available claims Abu Fadak was part of KH during this time and later followed in Muhandis’ footsteps to become leader of the organization.
Abu Fadak and the PMU are also reported to have played a role in IRGC-directed military campaigns to save the Assad regime during Syria’s civil war. He also reportedly oversaw the domestic production of rockets and missiles in Iraq, likely by copying Iran-provided systems.
In 2009, KH became the first pro-Iran Shiite militia in Iraq to be placed on the State Department’s Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list. Given his leadership position in this FTO, in addition to his links with Muhandis and Soleimani, Abu Fadak should be sanctioned.
The administration could impose sanctions on Abu Fadak under two different executive orders: Executive Order 13438, which punishes those who threaten peace and stability in Iraq, and Executive Order 13224, which sanctions terrorists and their financial backers. Last year, President Trump expanded Executive Order 13224 to authorize secondary sanctions against targets as well.
Hopefully, designating Abu Fadak can help Washington regionalize its maximum pressure policy toward Iran. Imposing sanctions on Abu Fadak can signal to the Iraqi people, who are increasingly dissatisfied with the Iraqi political class and increased Iranian meddling, that Washington will not sit by as Iran seeks to reconstitute and grow its networks abroad at the expense of Iraqi and American interests.
*Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he also contributes to FDD’s Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP) and Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). For more analysis from Behnam, CEFP, and CMPP, please subscribe

Rocket Fire Hits Libyan Capital's Airport
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 27/2020
The Libyan capital's only working airport was hit by rocket fire Thursday, aviation officials said, in the latest violation of a ceasefire between warring sides vying for control of Tripoli. Flights to and from Mitiga International Airport were suspended for more than four hours after what authorities said in a Facebook post was "continuous bombing" of the facility's perimeter. The U.N. mission in Libya (UNSMIL) reported "repeated bombings over the past two days" targeting Mitiga, in a Twitter post. The U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), based in the capital, blames such strikes on forces of its rival Khalifa Haftar, an eastern strongman who launched an offensive to take the capital last April.  Pro-Haftar forces say the GNA has been using the airport for military purposes. The two sides agreed to a ceasefire brokered by Turkey and Russia -- the former backing the GNA and the latter pro-Haftar -- that went into effect on January 12, but there have been repeated violations. The strikes on Mitiga come a day after political talks were due to have started in Geneva, but the rival parties said they were staying away. The talks are to run in tandem with military and economic negotiations as part of a U.N.-sponsored dialogue aimed at resolving the conflict. A joint military commission wound up talks in Geneva last Sunday with a "draft ceasefire agreement" to be finalized in March, according to UNSMIL. The U.N. mission "strongly condemned" Thursday's rocket attacks. "These violations are taking place at the moment when Libyans are working with the U.N... to put an end to the conflict and the suffering of the Libyan people, which worsens by the day," it tweeted. The fighting since April has left more than 1,000 people dead, according to the UN. Libya has been rocked by violence since a NATO-backed uprising in 2011 overthrew and killed the country's veteran leader Colonel Moammar Gadhafi.

Saudi Arabia halts entry for Umrah in Mecca, tourism from coronavirus-hit states
Tuqa Khalid, Al Arabiya English/Thursday, 27 February 2020
Saudi Arabia temporarily suspended entry for individuals seeking to perform Umrah pilgrimage in Mecca or visiting the Prophet's Mosque in Madina, as well as tourists traveling from countries where the coronavirus poses a risk as determined by the Kingdom’s health authorities. The new precautions are “based on the recommendations of the competent health authorities to apply the highest precautionary standards and take proactive preventive measures to prevent the emergence of the coronavirus in the Kingdom and its spread,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement on Twitter. These measures come at a time when has been a sharp increase in the number of cases reported in the Middle East, where most of the individuals infected had traveled from Iran which has a reported death toll standing at 19, the highest outside China. This pushed several countries to suspend flights and most of its neighbors to close their borders. Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Lebanon, Iraq, and the UAE have all reported coronavirus cases who had traveled to Iran recently.
Exceptions to the ban
The Minister of Health Tawfiq al-Rabiah confirmed on Wednesday that there were no coronavirus cases detected in the Kingdom so far. Saudi Arabia is also suspending the use of the national identity card by Saudi national and citizens of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states to travel to and from the Kingdom. However, there are exceptions: Saudis who are abroad and wish to return home if their exit from the Kingdom was with the national identity card, and citizens of the GCC countries currently inside the Kingdom who wish to return to their countries if their entry was with the national identity card. This allows the authorities at entry points to “verify from which countries visitors came before their arrival to the Kingdom and apply health precautions to deal with those coming from those countries.”“The Kingdom affirms that these procedures are temporary, and are subject to continuous evaluation by the authorities,” the ministry said.

Iranian Vice President Masoumeh Ebtekar tests positive for coronavirus: Report
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Thursday, 27 February 2020
Iranian Vice President for Women and Family Affairs Masoumeh Ebtekar has tested positive for coronavirus, the state-run daily IRAN reported. Ebtekar is the first member of President Hassan Rouahni’s cabinet to be infected with the novel coronavirus. Earlier today, the chairman of the Iranian parliament’s national security and foreign affairs committee Mojtaba Zolnour announced in a video that he had also been infected with the disease. Two other Iranian officials – Member of Parliament Mahmoud Sadeghi and Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi – have also previously confirmed that they have been infected with the disease. State media also reported on Thursday that Iranian cleric Hadi Khosroshahi died from coronavirus in Qom. Khosroshahi served as Iran’s ambassador to the Vatican following the 1979 revolution.

1,296 Coronavirus Cases Recorded Globally in 24 Hours
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 27/2020
The number of new coronavirus cases in the world rose to 82,560, including 2,813 deaths, across 50 countries and territories by 1700 GMT on Thursday, according to a report gathered by AFP from official sources.
In the 24 hours since the previous count at 1700GMT on Wednesday, 1,296 new contaminations were identified. China -- excluding the territories of Hong Kong and Macau -- where the epidemic emerged at the end of December, had 78,497 cases, of which 2,747 were fatal. There were 433 new infections between 1700GMT Wednesday and 1700GMT Thursday. A further 4,063 cases had been recorded around the world, including 66 deaths and 863 new cases. The most affected countries after China are: South Korea (1,766 cases, 13 deaths, 505 new cases), Italy (528 cases, 14 deaths, 128 new cases), Iran (245 cases, 26 deaths, 106 new cases) and Japan (187 cases, 8 deaths, 17 new cases). Japan has also recorded more than 700 cases on the cruise ship Diamond Princess moored off Yokohama. This assessment was carried out using data collected by AFP offices from the competent national authorities and information from the World Health Organization (WHO).

WHO Says Virus at 'Decisive Point' as World Battles Spread
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 27/2020
The World Health Organization declared Thursday that the new coronavirus epidemic was at a "decisive point" as countries across the globe battled to contain the deadly outbreak. Saudi Arabia banned pilgrims from visiting Islam's holiest sites as the number of deaths jumped in neighboring Iran, while Japan and Iraq ordered the closure of schools. Alarm is growing as China is no longer the only breeding ground for COVID-19, with other countries including South Korea and Italy becoming hotbeds of infection, raising fears of a pandemic. "We're at a decisive point," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a press conference in Geneva. "If you act aggressively now, you can contain this virus, you can prevent people getting sick, you can save lives." The virus has already killed more than 2,760 people, mostly in China -- where it first emerged in December -- and infected more than 81,000 in over 45 countries. But there are now more daily cases being recorded outside China, raising fears that poor countries with weak health infrastructures would not be able to cope. "It's what's happening in the rest of the world that's now our greatest concern," Tedros said.
Bracing for economic hit
World financial markets have plunged on fears that widespread lockdowns could hamper business activity and dent global growth, while sports matches and festivals have been cancelled to try to stem infections. The EU said it was bracing for an economic hit, with tourism already feeling the pinch and supply chains reliant on China also being affected. And President Emmanuel Macron said France, the world's most visited country which has recorded two deaths, was preparing for a jump in cases. "We are facing a crisis, an epidemic that is coming," he said.  With COVID-19 spreading in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia suspended visas for visits to Islam's holiest sites for the "umrah" pilgrimage, an unprecedented move, raising questions over the hajj which starts in July. The kingdom -- which hosts millions of pilgrims every year -- said it was also suspending visas for tourists visiting from countries where the virus is a "danger". Neighboring Iran reported seven new deaths over 24 hours, taking the overall toll to 26, the highest outside China. Tehran also imposed domestic travel restrictions for confirmed or suspected cases and slapped curbs on visits to major Muslim pilgrimage sites, while Iran's neighbors have shut their borders. The first cases in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Estonia involved people who had been in Iran. In Japan, schools were ordered to close for several weeks, after the government struggled to deal with the fallout of infections from a cruise ship it quarantined off the coast. Japan has seen at least 186 cases of infection among the general population, with four deaths. Worryingly, one woman was found to be positive again after initially contracting the virus, then being released from hospital after treatment and a negative test.
'Nothing's inevitable'
Several governments have also advised against travel to Italy -- Europe's epicenter with 528 cases and 14 deaths. In Latin America's first case, a 61-year-old patient in Brazil had traveled to Italy. Other countries including Algeria, Denmark, Romania and Spain have also reported infections linked to Italy. But Rome hit back, with Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio slamming "false reports" abroad about panic, cities in lockdown and runs on supermarkets, saying they were "doing more damage than the risk of an epidemic". The U.S. and South Korean militaries announced the postponement of joint exercises planned for this spring after Seoul declared its highest "severe" alert level over the virus which has claimed 12 lives out of almost 1,600 cases, the highest number outside China. Even China itself -- which sealed off an entire province and shut down cities across the country -- is now worried about importing cases and ordered people arriving in Beijing from affected countries to go into 14-day self-quarantine. China reported 29 more deaths Thursday -- its lowest daily tally since January -- and 433 new cases. But President Donald Trump has played down fears of a major outbreak in the United States, the world's largest economy. "I think that there's a chance that it could get worse, a chance it could get fairly substantially worse, but nothing's inevitable," Trump told reporters Wednesday. U.S. public health officials confirmed a coronavirus case in California, the first of unknown origin out of about 60 cases, and have told Americans to be ready to cancel mass gatherings and work from home. The virus is believed to have originated in a market in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, where it is suspected of having hopped from animal to human. Zhong Nanshan, a respected scientist who advises the government, said China would have had far fewer cases if action had been taken as early as December -- a rare critique from a prominent insider. Hubei officials have been accused of initially covering up the outbreak and silencing a whistleblowing doctor who later died from the disease.
WHO's Tedros said all countries should ensure their health systems were prepared. "We are actually in a very delicate situation in which the outbreak can go in any direction based on how we handle it."

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 27-28/2020
The Iran nuclear front: From deterioration to deadlock - analysis
Jerusalem Post/February 27/2020
Why did nothing come out of the European Union's meeting on Wednesday with Iran?
The parties to the Iran nuclear deal met late Wednesday for the first time since several crucial changes took place, with the surprising signal being that the trajectory of the US-Iran standoff has cooled off a bit from deterioration to deadlock.
This is surprising because it would seem to be the opposite of the worsening deterioration that has taken place over the last two months.
First, the US killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani on January 3.
In response to that and to US sanctions, Iran shortly afterward announced it would no longer abide by any of the nuclear deal’s limitations.
There are debates about the exact numbers, but Iran likely has gone from less than 300 kilograms of low-enriched uranium to about the 1,000 kg. needed to make a nuclear bomb.
The EU-3 (France, Germany and Italy) responded with its first sign of life to exercise its enforcement ability by formally declaring that Iran may be in fundamental violation of the deal. It invoked a clock that could tick down to UN-enforced global sanctions more serious than the American ones.
Last Friday, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), a powerful international banking organization, blacklisted Iran for the first time since the nuclear deal was signed, because it had failed to pass anti-terrorism financing and anti-money-laundering legislation despite years of warnings to do so. Importantly, the FATF is viewed as heavily influenced by Europe, and no one thinks the blacklist decision could have happened without European support.
Also on Friday, Iran’s hard-liners swept reformists out of parliament in an election, seizing virtually all levers of power in the Islamic Republic other than the presidency, held by now-isolated Hassan Rouhani.
In addition, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently has made repeated statements that Iran violated the nuclear deal by concealing nuclear material from inspectors at the Turquzabad nuclear site discovered by the Mossad.
An explosion could have been expected at Wednesday’s meeting. But it did not happen. In fact, it seems all the sides have taken their “pound of flesh” and now want to calm down, slow down and see what happens in the November US elections.
SINCE MAY 2019 when the US ended waivers from its Iran sanctions, Tehran had grown more violent against the US and its allies and had violated the nuclear deal more and more.
But after announcing in January it was no longer bound by the nuclear deal and deeply violating the low-enriched uranium threshold of around 5%, something surprising happened. Iran ceased additional violations.
Alternately, it had threatened to begin enriching uranium to the much more threatening midpoint of 20%, throw IAEA inspectors out of the country or leave the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. It has done none of the above.
The bottom line is that Iran moved months closer to being able to manufacture a nuclear weapon. But by stopping where it is, it has still kept itself at least several months or more away from one.
So maybe Iran had acted up enough and is now ready to wait on US elections.
The EU-3 has always been desperate to keep Iran within the limits of the nuclear deal and has been ready to twist and turn in Iran’s favor to maintain that.
So while some might have though that Wednesday’s meeting would lead to the EU-3 leaving the deal, moving to snap back UN global sanctions or at least issuing a new ultimatum deadline, such consequences reportedly were not even discussed.
On the one hand, this completely erodes the EU-3’s credibility, if it had any, about confronting Iran.
On the other hand, maybe the triumvirate succeeded if its purpose in threatening Iran was to get it to halt its violations where they stood when the Eu-3 issued the snap-back sanctions threat. Also, it did give Iran a bloody nose with the FATF blacklist decision.
So it is clear that the EU-3 is ready to wait indefinitely on pressuring Iran with such sanctions – as long as Tehran does not move closer to a nuclear bomb than it already has.
And US President Donald Trump’s plan, despite killing Soleimani, is very clearly an economic sanctions marathon against Iran.
There is no other plan. If it works and Iran changes its behavior, great. If not, then at least as long as Tehran does not move to get a nuclear weapon, the US is not going to up the stakes with a use of military force as things stand.
This does not mean everything will be smooth sailing from now until November.
But if May 2019 until February 2020 was a time of extreme instability in the nuclear standoff, we may now have entered a “time-out” and wait-and-see period of sorts – pending the big contest in November.

Israel's Election: What Do the Iranians and Palestinians Want?
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/February 27/2020
Hebrew
The Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank and Hamas in the Gaza Strip seem to have endorsed the banner of Netanyahu's political rivals in Israel: "Anyone but Bibi (Netanyahu's nickname)." The two Palestinian groups ' perceive Netanyahu as a major threat to their dream of destroying Israel and as someone who has further strengthened Israel's standing in the international arena.
The Palestinians are apparently convinced that it would be easier to extort concessions from inexperienced politicians such as Benny Gantz, Moshe Ya'alon and Gabi Ashkenazi. For the Palestinians, Netanyahu is a hard nut to crack. His strong stance against their tactics of intimidation have been, for them, a source of concern.
Abbas and his officials, in short, are telling the Israelis: "Look, we have a problem here. This man, Netanyahu, will not surrender to us -- and that is why you need to elect a new leader."
Abbas, not surprisingly, would doubtless prefer Israelis to replace Netanyahu with a weak leader who would comply with all his demands and take Israel back to the indefensible pre-1967 armistice lines -- a move that would most likely result in the militias of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Iran sitting on the West Bank hilltops overlooking Israel's Ben Gurion International Airport.
The Palestinians are doing their absolute utmost to ensure that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud Party do not win in Israel's general election on Monday, March 2.
The Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank, and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, seem to have endorsed the banner of Netanyahu's political rivals in Israel: "Anyone but Bibi (Netanyahu's nickname)." The two Palestinian groups perceive Netanyahu as a major threat to their dream of destroying Israel and as someone who has further strengthened Israel's standing in the international arena.
In a last-minute, apparently desperate attempt to undermine the current Israeli prime minister's chances of winning another election, the PA has launched a public relations campaign to explain to the Israeli public why they should not vote for Netanyahu.
The campaign, orchestrated personally by PA President Mahmoud Abbas, aims to scare Israeli voters by warning them that casting their ballots for Netanyahu would mean the end of the Middle East "peace process" -- a euphemism for Palestinians retaking territory "from the [Jordan] River to the [Mediterranean] Sea " -- or, in other words, all of Israel, as set forth in the 1974 Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) Phased Plan, which advocates accepting any land one can and then using that as a base from which to acquire the rest.
Abbas's latest attempt to scare the Israeli public began earlier this month, when he dispatched 20 Palestinian officials to a meeting with Israeli "peace activists" in Tel Aviv. Organized by a left-wing anti-Netanyahu group called the Israeli Peace Parliament, the meeting was held under the banner: "Two States for Two People" and "No to Annexation." (The "annexation" refers to Netanyahu's plan to apply Israeli law to some parts of the West Bank, particularly the Jordan Valley and several Jewish communities).
Abbas sent his officials to Tel Aviv for the meeting not to promote peace with Israel, but evidently to convince Israelis not to vote for Netanyahu. That is what one concludes by listening to the statements of the Palestinians who attended the "peace" gathering. These officials included former Palestinian cabinet ministers and parliament members, as well as senior officials of Abbas's ruling Fatah faction.
Although the meeting in Tel Aviv was also held under the banner, "Yes to Peace," the Palestinian (and Israeli) speakers devoted most of their speeches to condemning US President Donald Trump's recently unveiled plan for Middle East peace.
The speakers also spent much of their time bad-mouthing Netanyahu and depicting him as a "threat" to peace and stability in the region. The Palestinians who attended the meeting did not offer an alternative to the peace plan. The only "plan" they came with to Tel Aviv is one that sees Israel submit unconditionally to all of Abbas's demands: for the present, a full Israeli withdrawal to the armistice lines of 1949, the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital.
The message the Palestinians were hoping to send to Israeli voters through the meeting seemed to be: "Vote for a candidate who will accept all of our demands and dictates, or else we, the Palestinians, will make you sorry that you didn't."
In yet another attempt to influence the upcoming Israeli election, Abbas ordered his so-called Palestinian Committee for Interaction with Israeli Society, a group consisting of several PLO and Fatah officials and pundits, to invite prominent Israeli (Jewish) journalists to Ramallah, the present de facto Palestinian capital in the West Bank, for a tour of the city and meetings with senior Palestinian officials.
Abbas and his associates went out of their way to pamper the journalists and make sure they felt happy and comfortable in Ramallah, to a point where religiously observant journalists were even offered kosher food ordered from a nearby Jewish village.
Why did Abbas invite the journalists to Ramallah? To inform them that Palestinians want peace -- and are even ready to sign a peace agreement with Israel within the next two weeks! Ready, that is, if -- and only if -- the Israeli government agrees to Abbas's demands and retreats to the pre-1967 lines, where in 1949, fighting had stopped. Abbas and his officials, in short, are telling the Israelis: "Look, we have a problem here. This man, Netanyahu, will not surrender to us -- and that is why you need to elect a new leader."
Although Palestinian officials have not said so openly, they have made it clear that they would prefer to see Netanyahu's rivals in the Blue and White Party in power.
The Palestinians are apparently convinced that it would be easier to extort concessions from inexperienced politicians such as Benny Gantz, Moshe Ya'alon and Gabi Ashkenazi.
For the Palestinians, Netanyahu is a hard nut to crack. His strong stance against their tactics of intimidation have been a source of concern.
Abbas and his officials have made it clear that they want nothing to do with any Israeli leader who calls them out for their lies and double-talk.
Abbas, not surprisingly, would doubtless prefer Israelis to replace Netanyahu with a weak leader who would comply with all his demands and take Israel back to the indefensible pre-1967 armistice lines -- a move that would most likely result in Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Iran sitting on the West Bank hilltops overlooking Israel's Ben Gurion International Airport.
The Palestinians appear to want an Israeli leader who will also not call them out for paying salaries and stipends to Palestinian terrorists and their families for murdering Jews, and who will not call them out for their continued hostile incitement against Israel. They also appear to want an Israeli leader who will not have such strong and close relations with the US.
The Palestinians, in addition, seem to be hoping for an Israeli leader who will not be able to promote normalization between Israel and diverse Arab states -- as Netanyahu has successfully managed to do in the past few years, and who will not boost Israel's standing in the international community or hold close ties with world leaders such as Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, as Israel's current prime minister does.
Similarly, Iran and its Palestinian proxies, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, appear desperate to see Netanyahu voted out of office. For them, Netanyahu is a nightmare: he actively and effectively blocks their ongoing attempts to extend their control over the region, in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq. The Iranians are angry about Israeli airstrikes on their bases and those of their Hezbollah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad allies in Syria. Netanyahu has been doing his utmost to prevent Iran from taking over Syria and bringing its threat against Israel closer to Israel's border.
Iran, it seems, has ordered Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad to resume their terror attacks against Israel from the Gaza Strip one week before the election. The terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip and their masters in Tehran seem persuaded that upgrading their attacks against Israel will terrorize Israelis into voting Netanyahu out of office.
By firing dozens of rockets at Israel this week, the Palestinian terrorists apparently sought to send a message to Israeli voters that they need to elect a new leader because Netanyahu cannot provide them with security and calm.
Iran and its Palestinian and Lebanese allies in the Middle East appear to think that if a weak leader replaces Netanyahu, they can continue to amass weapons and complete their scheme of expanding their control over Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. They seem to view Netanyahu as an obstacle to achieving these objectives.
Like many Arabs, Palestinians clearly consider Netanyahu a tough leader who stands up to terrorists' threats and attacks, but they dislike that he has managed to garner a great deal of respect in the international community -- even the President of the Sovereignty Council of Sudan, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, openly met with him in public.
The terrorists of the Middle East have always despised Netanyahu. They pray for the day that he is ousted from office -- whether by the ballot box or by the courts, for accepting cigars and champagne from his friends. If that happens, Iran, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah will no doubt celebrate -- publicly passing out candies, as they often do each time a Jew is killed or injured in a terrorist attack.
The Palestinians' attempt to influence Israeli voters is not only a bid at meddling in the internal affairs of Israel, but also a dangerous attempt to persuade Israelis to choose a weak and inexperienced leader whom they believe they can play for a fool and control through terrorism and threats.
It is up to Israel's voters which way they will go.
*Bassam Tawil is based in the Middle East
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Iran's Election Result Has Seriously Undermined the Ayatollahs' Credibility
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/February 27/2020
In many respects the ayatollahs only have themselves to blame for this dire outcome. Prior to the poll they attempted to fix the election in their favour by refusing to allow large numbers of potential candidates, many of whom were highly critical of how the country is being run, even to contest the election.
This maneuver meant that around half of all candidates, including 90 serving members of the outgoing parliament, were disqualified prior to the election, prompting a nationwide boycott over what many Iranians regarded as a sham election.
The result is, as the outcome from the parliamentary elections has graphically illustrated, that growing numbers of ordinary Iranians are now desperate to see fundamental changes in the way their country is run, changes that can only take place when the ayatollahs finally admit that they can no longer have the support they need to keep their repressive regime in power.
Iran's ruling regime is facing a credibility crisis in the wake of this week's parliamentary election results, as the vast majority of Iranians demonstrated their contempt for the way their country is being run through the simple expedient of refusing to vote. Pictured: An Iranian man casts his ballot at a polling station in Tehran on February 21, 2020. (Photo by Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images)
Iran's ruling regime is facing a credibility crisis in the wake of this week's parliamentary election results, as the vast majority of Iranians demonstrated their contempt for the way their country is being run through the simple expedient of refusing to vote.
Prior to the vote, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's Supreme Leader, made an impassioned plea to voters to demonstrate their support for the regime by casting their vote for the regime's designated candidates, warning that boycotting the election would provide US President Donald Trump with a propaganda victory.
"Anyone who cares about Iran's national interests should participate," he declared, adding that Iran's "enemies want to see what the results of the US maximum pressure are" -- a reference to the punitive sanctions regime that has been imposed on Tehran by the Trump administration.
To judge by the eventual outcome, though, the Iranian public had other ideas and, instead of responding to Mr Khamenei's rallying cry, chose to vent their deepening anger at the hardliners' responsible for running the country by opting not to vote.
While the hardliners tried to put a brave face on Sunday's result by claiming that the conservatives, who already run the legislature, had achieved an overwhelming victory, a closer inspection of the vote told a very different story, revealing that the country had experienced its lowest turn-out in an election since the 1979 Islamic revolution, with just 42 percent of the voters bothering to participate.
The result indicated that turnout had dropped by a third since the last parliamentary elections in 2016, which saw the victory of supposedly moderate politicians.
Perhaps the biggest embarrassment for the ayatollahs came in Tehran where, while the hardliners were able to claim victory by winning all 30 of the city's seats, they were able to achieve this feat because 75 percent of the city's registered voters decided not to cast their ballot.
Thus, far from securing the unequivocal declaration of support the ayatollahs had been seeking, Mr Khamenei and his acolytes have been left with a large amount of egg on their faces, as the decision by the overwhelming majority of voters not even to participate in the vote now raises serious questions about the entire credibility of the country's present ruling class.
In many respects the ayatollahs only have themselves to blame for this dire outcome. Prior to the poll they attempted to fix the election in their favour by refusing to allow large numbers of potential candidates, many of whom were highly critical of how the country is being run, even to contest the election.
This maneuver meant that around half of all candidates, including 90 serving members of the outgoing parliament, were disqualified prior to the election, prompting a nationwide boycott over what many Iranians regarded as a sham election.
The other factor that has played a significant role in the development of the increasingly hostile attitude that many Iranians apparently have towards their rulers is the regime's woeful record on a number of key issues, from its disastrous handling of the economy to, more recently, its hapless response to the assassination by a US drone strike of the country's notorious terrorist mastermind, Qassem Soleimani.
Having vowed to avenge the terrorist's demise, the regime then managed further to increase its international ostracism by accidentally shooting down a Ukrainian civilian aircraft, with the loss of all 176 passengers and crew on board.
The result is, as the outcome from the parliamentary elections has graphically illustrated, that growing numbers of ordinary Iranians are now desperate to see fundamental changes in the way their country is run, changes that can only take place when the ayatollahs finally admit that they can no longer have the support they need to keep their repressive regime in power.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Islamic Jihad rises with Iranian-Syrian support
Sami Moubayed/The Arab Weekly/February 27/2020
With support from Tehran and Damascus, Islamic Jihad might surprise everybody and perform well in elections this year.
Mourners carry the flag of the Islamic Jihad group during the funeral of two members, killed in Israeli air strikes near Damascus, at a mosque in the Palestinian camp of Yarmuk, south of Damascus, February 24. (AFP)
Less costly to fund. Mourners carry the flag of the Islamic Jihad group during the funeral of two members, killed in Israeli air strikes near Damascus, at a mosque in the Palestinian camp of Yarmuk, south of Damascus, February 24. (AFP)
BEIRUT - Israel carried out air strikes February 24 over Damascus, killing at least two people. The intended target, it seems, was Ziyad Nakhaleh, the 57-year-old head of the Islamic Jihad movement in Palestine.
Last November, the Israeli Defence Forces tried to assassinate Akram al-Ajouri, another leader of Islamic Jihad, striking at his home in the upmarket residential neighbourhood of West Mezzeh, also in Damascus.
Both men are part of Islamic Jihad’s leadership elected in September 2018. Five of them are based abroad, commuting between Syria, Lebanon and Iran.
Nakhaleh spent 14 years in Israeli prisons and, upon his release, was one of the co-founders of Islamic Jihad. He was appointed to its first Shura Council by founder Fathi Shaqaqi. He was also tasked with laying the groundwork for Saraya al-Quds, the military wing of Islamic Jihad, with which he remains a very prominent and influential figure, explaining why Israel wants him dead.
Nakhaleh played a critical role in the first intifada in 1987 and was arrested one year later and banished to southern Lebanon, where he lived until 1994. He moved to Beirut after the election of Hassan Nasrallah as secretary-general of Hezbollah, who was and remains a good friend of his, and finally to Damascus.
Unlike Hamas’s Khaled Meshaal, Nakhaleh did not voice opposition to the Syrians and refused to follow the Muslim Brotherhood in Cairo after the 2012 election of Muhammad Morsi. In 2014, he played an important role in the Gaza ceasefire talks in Egypt. The same year he was placed on the US terrorist list with a $5 million bounty on his head.
Nakhaleh is on Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s hit list, accused of being behind the latest escalation in Gaza. He has revived Islamic Jihad after seven years of slumber, restoring its previous aura on the Palestinian street and reviving its status as a strategic partner of Hamas, rather than a subordinate.
Diminishing Iranian influence in Gaza
“Iran, rather than Syria, is the real patron of Islamic Jihad,” said Tareq Baconi, a Palestinian analyst at the International Crisis Group in Belgium. “Syria, however, is one of the few countries that allows the movement to be located above ground.”
That was done mainly to keep a Syrian back channel open with the Palestinian territories after relations with Hamas were suspended in 2012, when they packed up and left Syria, snuggling up instead to the Muslim Brotherhood government in Cairo and setting up base in Doha, which was actively pursuing regime change in Damascus.
Hamas bankrolled the armed opposition in the Yarmouk Camp, providing it with weapons and mines, and Meshaal raised the tricolour flag of the Syrian opposition, making rapprochement with Damascus virtually impossible.
The Iranians tried hard to mend relations between Hamas and Syria, after it became clear to them that Bashar al-Assad was going nowhere, as did Hezbollah. But the Syrian government demanded a complete break between Hamas and Qatar, along with the toppling of Khaled Meshal, refusing to restore any Hamas' assets that they had seized.
When rapprochement failed, Iran and Hezbollah settled for a Damascus-Islamic jihad axis instead, one that would keep the so-called “Axis of the Resistance” intact to serve Iranian interests in the Arab world.
The money for Islamic Jihad would come from Iran but Islamic Jihad bases, training camps and senior leadership would be in Syria, upholding a long-held Palestinian tradition of waging war against Israel from “countries of the necklace” (duwal al-tawq) that surround Israel, namely Jordan, Lebanon or Syria.
That made more sense after Hamas slipped out of Iranian control, as Iranian money stopped entering the Gaza Strip. Iranian patronage of Hamas dates to 1993 when its leadership was invited to open an office in Tehran after they opposed the Oslo Accords. By 2007, Iran was bankrolling them with $120 million per year, money that Iran no longer has after its resources were stretched thin by the Syrian conflict.
A win-win scenario
Islamic Jihad, with its new leadership, is less costly to fund and more politically rewarding, given Hamas’s collapsing powerbase in Gaza, after years of poor government marred by corruption, lack of basic services and soaring unemployment.
Additionally, Islamic Jihad is “more amenable to Iranian dictates than Hamas,” Baconi said. It is less willing to argue and more willing to accept orders with no questions asked. It will be using Iranian and Syrian support to stand in upcoming Palestinian parliamentary elections, which Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has called for this year, although the precise date has yet to be revealed.
When the Palestinians last voted in 2006, Hamas won 74 out of 132 seats in parliament, a majority it will have a hard time matching in 2020.
With support from Tehran and Damascus, however, Islamic Jihad might surprise everybody and perform well. Unlike Hamas, it carries no burden of poor governance and seems to be gaining new members by the day because of its resumed rocket attacks against Israel and its position on US President Donald Trump’s Deal of the Century.

The unintended consequences of Khamenei’s latest power grab
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/February 27/2020
In yet another authoritarian push, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has scored a victory by consolidating his autonomous rule because his social and political base — the hard-liners — made significant gains in last week’s parliamentary elections.
The triumph of the hard-liners was most likely premeditated and predetermined by the supreme leader. The Guardian Council, whose members are directly or indirectly appointed by Khamenei, disqualified more than 7,000 candidates ahead of the vote. The majority of those who were disqualified were from the reformist, independent, pragmatic and moderate political parties.
From Khamenei’s perspective, pragmatism comes second to the revolutionary ideals of the Islamic Republic, which include anti-Americanism, anti-Semitism, exporting the principles of the revolution to other nations, and pursuing hegemonic ambitions in the region. As a result, the regime made sure that those who qualified and were elected are ideologues, staunchly loyal to the supreme leader and the revolutionary goals of the Islamic Republic.
Khamenei normally instructs the Guardian Council either behind closed doors or by the council taking notes from his public speeches. In the months prior to the elections, Khamenei made several speeches warning the system against allowing some candidates from standing in the elections. In one speech, according to the Middle East Media Research Institute, he called for a “strong Majlis (Iran’s parliament)” and clarified that by saying it must be made up of “courageous, effective, obedient, motivated (candidates) loyal to Islam.” He added: “Anyone who fears speaking out against a certain foreign power (the US) is not fit to represent the honorable, mighty and brave Iranian public.”
The other objective of Khamenei and his hard-line circle is to further undermine the presidential office. By losing the Majlis, President Hassan Rouhani has lost the limited power that he possessed. He is now more like a figurehead who is told exactly what to do, and his function is restricted to setting the tone for Khamenei and the senior cadre of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on the international stage.
This is why the reformists and even Rouhani and his fellow moderates have been infuriated by Khamenei’s actions. Surprisingly, they have even been voicing their criticisms in public. In a recent meeting with Iran’s provincial governors, Rouhani warned that the biggest threat to Iran’s national sovereignty comes when people perceive that elections are totally irrelevant. Rouhani added that the country should not become similar to how it was during the shah’s regime, when, he claimed, “it was determined in Tehran who would be elected and, though the public voted as they pleased, at the end of the election the name of the candidate pre-selected by Tehran was always revealed at the polling places.”
By ensuring the hard-liners dominate the Majlis, Khamenei is using another authoritarian method to silence any opposition
By ensuring the hard-liners dominate the Majlis, Khamenei is using another authoritarian method to silence any opposition to his decisions. He is also stifling one of the few democratic elements left in the system in order to further tighten his grip on power.
Khamenei has been more forcefully pursuing this trend in the last two years, particularly after people began protesting in the streets in large numbers. For example, the Majlis was not involved in the decision to hike gas prices a few months ago — a move that sparked further widespread unrest. In 2018, Khamenei also formed a committee, labeled the economic war room, which consists of two hard-liners and one so-called moderate: The heads of the three branches of government — Rouhani, Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, and Chief Justice Ebrahim Raisi. The committee essentially grants the supreme leader the power to enact any law he desires by skirting parliament and Iran’s lawmakers.
But it is critical to point out that Khamenei, like other autocrats of the past, is failing to recognize that, although he is gaining more power, his actions are ushering in unintended consequences that endanger the survival of the entire theocratic establishment.
While the Iranian people used to believe that they might be capable of changing the regime from within, as well as countering Khamenei’s autonomous rule by voting for reformists and moderates in elections, they now appear to have lost that hope. Large sections of the Iranian populace have come to the realization that it is impossible to change the regime from within. Instead, the only solution is to force the theocratic establishment out. And this is why we are increasingly hearing calls from the people asking Khamenei to step down, while also chanting, “Reformists, hard-liners, the whole game is over.”
While Khamenei is robustly pushing to strengthen his rule by centralizing control and crushing opposition, he is paradoxically endangering the survival of the Islamic Republic by giving the Iranian people no option other than to seek regime change.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is an Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Qatar’s role deepening the Palestinian political crisis
Dr. Hamdan Al-Shehri/Arab News/February 27/2020
Yahya Sinwar, right, Hamas’ leader in the Gaza Strip, with Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh, center, and Head of the Central Elections Commission Hanna Nasser, in Gaza City. (AP Photo)
The world today — including some Arab countries — is searching for a solution to the Palestinian issue that would serve the interests of the Palestinians and all the peoples of the region. Solutions that achieve peace must be based on clear foundations and agreed methodologies, the first of which is the Arab Peace Initiative, which was first presented by Saudi Arabia at the Arab League summit of 2002.
However, there are countries that get involved in the Arab-Israeli conflict and promote work that is in the best interests of the Palestinians on the surface, but ultimately serves Israel and its interests more. Specifically, it makes the Palestinians themselves separated. These countries are Iran, Qatar and Turkey, which magnify the Palestinian dispute and support Hamas over the Palestinian Authority (PA) to weaken the latter’s political position in international forums. Their actions are even supported by Israel. In fact, Yossi Cohen, the head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, recently visited Qatar to request Doha’s continued support for Hamas.
Qatar has periodically provided millions of dollars in cash to Hamas to pay for the Gaza Strip power plant, allow the group to pay its civil servants, and provide aid to tens of thousands of poor families. According to reports, in the years 2012 to 2018, Qatar transferred more than $1.1 billion to Gaza with the approval of the Israeli government. Israel allows this in exchange for Hamas ensuring calm in the south and as part of efforts to reach a long-term cease-fire with the group.
Cohen’s visit to Doha can be considered in the context of calm talks between the Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip, and the fact Qatar plays a major role in this process. Both Cohen and Herzl Halevi, the Israeli military’s chief of southern command, traveled to Qatar via Jordan in a private plane that left Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv on Feb. 4 and returned less than 24 hours later.
Although Qatar supports Iran, Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood, Israel maintains close relations with it through the Qatari envoy to the Gaza Strip, Mohammed Al-Emadi. It was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who asked Cohen to travel to Qatar and ask Doha to continue supporting Hamas, according to former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman.
The return of Qatar to the political scene, especially regarding Israel and Hamas, confirms Hamas’ defection from the PA, deepening the Palestinian political crisis because it gives a justification for Israel to evade any peace plan or initiative that insists on the PA being the sole representative of the Palestinians.
In this way, the Hamas-PA conflict, which does not serve the Palestinian cause, continues. Hamas insists it is the troubled party in the Palestinian equation, but the fact is the group is unable to achieve any victory. Rather, it carries out nothing more than provocations, to which Israel responds with more attacks and which are paid for by the simple civilians.
Hamas’ defection from the PA and the role that it plays in the conflict guarantees that it will be funded by Qatar and that Israel will benefit. Israel is also given intelligence through Qatar and Hamas members, who monitor everyone who threatens Israel’s security. There are many agreements under the table that primarily serve Israel. Paradoxically, Qatar continues to promote, through its Al-Jazeera TV channel, that it stands with Palestine and the Palestinian cause. But we all know that Qatar, Turkey and even Iran do not really want to provide anything real, other than slogans, to Palestine. Indeed, Tehran is today present on the borders of Israel but has not provided any effective assistance to the Palestinians; nothing more than slogans, which will not change anything on the ground.
*Dr. Hamdan Al-Shehri is a political analyst and international relations scholar. Twitter: @DrHamsheri

Mubarak’s positive traits worth remembering
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/February 27/2020
Hosni Mubarak, who passed away on Tuesday at the age of 91, left behind the legacy of a man who ruled Egypt for 30 years, from 1981 until 2011. He had the longest rule over Egypt since Mohammed Ali Pasha, who founded the country as a modern independent state in the 19th century.
During his rule, the economic conditions in Egypt kept on worsening until they led to the uprising that ended his control over the country. However, as the Arab uprisings unfolded further and the world watched other rulers brutally crush protests, one should pay tribute to Mubarak for respecting the will of the people and leaving his seat gracefully.
On this, one should compare Mubarak to Bashar Assad. If we see what Assad did to keep his “seat,” we can appreciate Mubarak. One might argue that internal pressure was applied on Mubarak. The same pressure was exerted on Assad, as well as from the international community, but he snubbed it and held on to power. One might argue that the army did not stand with Mubarak. But again large factions of the army in Syria did not accept Assad’s orders to shoot at protesters, hence the formation of the Free Syrian Army. Nevertheless, the headstrong and arrogant Assad went after the protesters and called on pro-Iranian militias to supplement his forces.
The same happened with Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi. He did not accept that his people did not want him anymore. His arrogance was above everything. He hired mercenaries from Chadto slaughter his own people. He instructed the forces loyal to him to rape women in Misrata to humiliate the peoplewho dared to defy his 40-year-old rule. Qaddafi and Assad are criminals who placed themselves above their people and felt they had the right to be brutal to preserve their power. Qaddafi was toppled only after an intense air campaign by Western forces. Assad is still defiant, despite half a million deaths and half of the Syrian people becoming either internally displaced or refugees. When you see those rulers and how evil and brutal they are, you tend to respect Mubarak. He was the one who preferred to give up power rather than see his country drown in blood.
Nevertheless, one cannot describe Mubarak’s rule as being marked with prosperity. It was more of an era of crony capitalism. His sons partnered with affluent businessmen and controlled the economy. However, today Egypt is not really any better off. The sectors that were once controlled by oligarchs are now controlled by the army and its generals. Therefore, the revolution did not really lead Egypt to a free market economy. Another factor that really did not help Mubarak was population growth, with the rentier economic model brought in by Gamal Abdel Nasser and followed by Anwar Sadat and Mubarak no longer able to cater to the growing population’s basic needs. Hence, the discontent that led to the uprising in Tahrir Square. However, one should recognize that Mubarak, for all his faults domestically, was a skilled mediator. He played a big role in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process. On his death, Palestinian and Israeli leaders alike rushed to praise his role as a regional mediator. He was also able to contain Gaza at the eastern border of his country and preserve the stability of Egypt amid tumult in the region.
He was the one who preferred to give up power rather than see his country drown in blood. Despite preserving Sadat’s peace agreement with Israel, he kept the Israelisat arm’s length. The normalization with Israel was described as a cold peace. He kept interactions to a minimum and did not deepen a relationship that was viewed negatively by a large faction of Egyptian society. At the same time, he did not want to expand ties before Israel granted the Palestinians their legal right, namely an independent and sovereign state.
During Mubarak’s rule, Egypt played an important role in Arab diplomacy. It exercised soft power, juggling between events and managing crises. However, as Mubarak got old, he became more secluded and so did Egypt. In the later years of his rule, Egypt witnessed a disengagement from Arab affairs and the gradual loss of soft power.
Today, as the world says farewell to one of the longest-ruling rulers of modern history, one should also remember his positive traits.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She holds a PhD in politics from the University of Exeter and is an affiliated scholar with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.

Why Germany’s political machinations matter to the world
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/February 27/2020
What unfolded in Germany on Tuesday was realpolitik at its finest. The leadership race in the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) was flung wide open when Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK) resigned her position a few weeks ago. The usual suspects were expected to throw their hats into the ring, including Health Minister Jens Spahn, North Rhine-Westphalia premier Armin Laschet, and Friedrich Merz, the former chairman of the CDU/Christian Social Union (CSU) parliamentary group, ex-chairman of BlackRock in Germany and erstwhile nemesis of Chancellor Angela Merkel when she assumed the leadership of the party. Then the unexpected happened: Spahn, the right-wing critic of Merkel’s immigration policy, abruptly dropped out of the race and backed the much more liberal Laschet, who is seen as an ally of the chancellor and a supporter of her policies. Spahn is ideologically a lot closer to the conservative Merz, who has no time for Merkel’s immigration policy, is a fiscal hawk and generally feels that the CDU has drifted too far to the left.
While Spahn’s action might look surprising, it is a clever move on the political chessboard. He is just 39 years old and still has time. Rising alongside Laschet as his No. 2 is, therefore, a good option. He will be able to garner the support of some of the membership that is to the right of Laschet, as well as the party’s young Turks. As opposed to Merz, who is a millionaire, a divisive figure and is often seen as out of touch with the daily concerns of the less well off, Laschet is emollient and a bridge-builder. Hence, Spahn backed the horse he felt had the best chance of winning, especially once he adds his right-wing and youth credentials to the mix.This is a blow to Merz’s candidacy and he was quick to assert that the leadership election, set for April 25, will be nothing less than a decision on the soul of the party. Merz is not known for building bridges, which might in the end provide an opening for Markus Soeder, scion of the CDU’s sister party, the Bavarian CSU, to become the candidate for chancellor at the next election. Soeder plays his cards well and knows how to jump on the bandwagon of what is in vogue at any given time — be it immigration or green credentials. He may ooze Bavarian charm but, make no mistake, he is about power at heart.
A Laschet-Spahn union might just ensure that the chancellorship remains within the purview of the CDU, should the conservatives win next year’s federal election. Soeder assured his supporters at an Ash Wednesday rally in Passau that he was able to work with anybody who took the helm of the party come April 25. This all sounds like the intricacies of German politics, so why does it matter to the rest of the world? Germany is the world’s fourth-largest economy and Europe’s biggest. It is flirting with recession, which means it is doubly important there is a functioning government, and who holds the keys to the chancellor’s residence takes on added significance.
The coalition between the Social Democrats and the CDU/CSU is on shaky ground to put it mildly. The decision of Finance Minister Olaf Scholz to bail out heavily indebted communes with federal funds has the fiscally conservative Merz and Spahn up in arms, especially as it might pierce the limit of federal indebtedness, which has its foundations in the constitution. If Merz headed the CDU, it would more than likely sound the death knell for the coalition. Laschet, on the other hand, might just be able to drag the cooperation out.
The coalition between the Social Democrats and the CDU/CSU is on shaky ground to put it mildly.
Merkel is reaching the end of her tenure as the head of government. She is a weakened politician and her party needs to gain a sense of direction, which the outgoing AKK could not provide. Europe needs to know which way Germany is headed. Brexit, immigration and the indebtedness of Italy are all very important issues that will keep the EU busy for the remainder of the year. EU leaders need to get a sense of Germany’s direction in order to calibrate their positions. Many would hold their breath if the coalition government in Berlin fell and there were new elections. Last time around, negotiations took a good six months and a failed attempt by the CDU at working with the Greens and the Liberal Democrats before Europe’s largest economy had a government that was fit for purpose.
A rudderless Germany is not what Europe — or the world for that matter — needs in the face of Brexit, conflicts in the Middle East, and the coronavirus outbreak, which will shave points off global growth forecasts.
*Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert. Twitter: @MeyerResources

Turkish-Russian tensions over Syria about to come to a head
Talmiz Ahmad/Arab News/February 27/2020
Turkey’s brinkmanship, which has characterized its diplomacy in Syria, has exhausted its value. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now has to decide on his crucial next steps: Accommodation with the Syrian government and its ally, Russia, or a war that could alienate Turkey from Moscow, its political, military, energy and economic partner.
Events over the last month have steadily sharpened the divide between Turkey and Russia, reflecting their deep differences about the future scenario in Syria. In this period, Syrian forces, backed by Russian air support and Iran-backed militants, have made remarkable progress in retaking towns and villages in the extended Idlib area; occupying Maaret Al-Numan on Jan. 26 and then Saraqeb, just 10 kilometers from Idlib city, on Feb. 6. Taking Saraqeb, at the junction of both the M5 highway from Aleppo to Damascus and the M4 from Aleppo to Latakia, created the conditions for the reopening of these two economic lifelines. However, Turkey-backed rebels announced they had retaken the town on Thursday.
Several of Turkey’s observation posts are now surrounded by Syrian troops. In sporadic skirmishes, 16 Turkish soldiers have been killed this month. Over the last two months, the fighting has displaced nearly a million Syrians, who have rushed to the Turkish border for safety.
So far, most of the fighting on Turkey’s behalf has been done by the Syrian National Army (SNA), which is made up of elements of the old rebel group, the Free Syrian Army, that has now come under Turkish patronage, augmented by local Turkmen and Arab fighters. There are reports that Turkish forces are also working closely with extremist elements in Idlib, particularly Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) and the National Liberation Front (NLF). HTS is believed to control most of Idlib and, with the NLF, leads the fighting there, including counterattacks against Syrian forces.
Turkey’s ties with HTS are central to its interests in northern Syria and are the source of conflict with the Assad regime and Russia. In terms of the Sochi agreement of 2018, Turkey agreed to separate the extremist fighters from the “moderates,” integrate the latter with the SNA, and open the door for the Syrians and Russians to fight the extremists and take back Idlib. Over the last 18 months, Turkey has not been able to achieve this. HTS refuses to join the Turkey-sponsored “moderate” entity, instead wishing to adhere to its ideals and fight to the bitter end — hence the decision of Syria and Russia to end the impasse and open hostilities.
This is a body blow to Turkish interests. The rebel fighters at Idlib give it the firepower it needs to maintain its presence in northern Syria, keep the Syrian Kurds under control, and remain an influential factor in shaping the future political order in Syria. On the other hand, both Damascus and Moscow are viscerally hostile to the extremists and advocate the withdrawal of Turkish troops to ensure the territorial integrity of Syria.
Putin has made tough statements squarely blaming Turkey for the differences and affirming support for the Assad government
The ground fighting has been marked by parallel diplomatic efforts to bridge differences and avoid escalation. The most important interaction was the one in Moscow on Feb. 18. There, Russia offered the principles of a settlement: The setting up of a 15-kilometer-wide de-escalation zone at the Syria-Turkey border; Russian checkpoints in the Turkish-controlled parts of Idlib and Afrin; and the opening of the M5 and M4 highways, with traffic under joint Russian-Turkish control.
Turkey rejected this plan, since it would deprive it of all its territorial gains in the region. It demanded instead that Syrian forces vacate all the areas occupied in the recent fighting. Ankara has now deployed about 10,000 soldiers on the outskirts of Idlib, facing the Syrian forces and thus setting the stage for a direct conflict between them.
Amid these escalating tensions, Erdogan has continued his brinkmanship — he paid a visit to Ukraine in early February, criticized the occupation of Crimea by Russia, and offered military assistance to Kiev. He then called Vladimir Putin to clear the air. He has also spoken to US President Donald Trump and obtained statements of support on Idlib from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Erdogan has also asked for Patriot missiles, but this request has not been accepted, while the US has refused to join the fighting in Syria.
Putin has responded with tough statements squarely blaming Turkey for the differences and affirming support for the Assad government. Russia has also reached out to the Syrian Kurds, who are feeling betrayed by Trump after he gave Turkey a free hand last October to intervene militarily in their territories east of the Euphrates. Now, under Russian encouragement, they seem amenable to engaging with the Assad government.
Observers are speculating about the next turn of events — an all-out war, a significant Turkish shift in favor of the West, particularly the US, or a compromise arrangement broadly along the lines of what was offered by Russia last week? Erdogan has made some bellicose statements demanding the withdrawal of Syrian troops from around his observation posts by the end of the month, but has also acknowledged he does not control the airspace. It is unlikely that he will jeopardize Turkey’s substantial ties with Russia. Perhaps what the situation needs is a face-saving formula that would appear to serve at least some of Turkey’s interests; possibly Russian support for its outreach to Libya and its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The outcome of this imbroglio should be known over the coming few days.
• Talmiz Ahmad is an author and former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE. He holds the Ram Sathe Chair for International Studies at the Symbiosis International University, Pune, India.

Coronavirus calculus: Unpacking the economic costs of pandemics
Omar Al-Ubaydli/Al Arabiya/February 27/2020
The health threats posed by the coronavirus have dominated media for the last month, and in the Arab world, they have become tangible, with the number of cases rising. While it remains too early to assess the economic impact of the coronavirus, we can draw on studies of previous pandemics to understand the primary channels. The first tranche of economic costs are those caused directly by a pandemic. The loss of life, and the reduced ability of sufferers to work. There is also the treatment cost, which can be considerable: the drugs, the facilities, including elaborate quarantines, the emergency evacuations, the extra staff hours, the masks, the sterilizers, and so on. Moreover, new processes will have to be developed, and people trained under pressure to implement these processes. Saudi authorities will surely be working around the clock preparing for the 2020 Hajj pilgrimage, which represents a massive technical challenge for public health experts. For the most part, this first tranche of economic costs is irrecoverable, though it does confer the benefit of capacity-building for future crises. This silver lining certainly applies to the costs associated with developing a vaccine like the coronavirus vaccine currently under development, and these costs should be classified as an investment.
The second tranche is the first-order indirect effects of the response measures: flight cancelations, border closings, summits postponements, representing foregone economically productive activity. For example, China took the prudent decision of indefinitely postponing its 2020 Formula 1 race. Insurance policies help diffuse these costs, such as the loss of sponsorship and TV revenues, but the costs still have to be borne by society at large. Saudi Arabia’s recent announcement of limits on Umrah pilgrims falls under this category.
These costs are partially recoverable; postponed events can eventually still yield significant benefits. For example, some Umrah pilgrims are likely to reschedule to a future date when travel is safe.
In the long-run, by far the biggest economic impact is in the second-order indirect effects, which refers to the downstream impact of the first-order indirect effects. When schools close, people have to take time off work to supervise their children. Many workers volunteer or are ordered to engage in prophylactic absenteeism from work. That means lower spending on restaurants for business lunches, and less work for taxis that ferry people between work engagements. In China, entire factories are closed for this reason.
More importantly, the widespread disengagement from public life has a large, adverse economic impact. Cinemas sit empty, the ice cream trucks that serve children in the park are idle, and employees in airport gift stores stare at their mobile phones.
Similarly, the Gulf countries are hurting at present due to the sharp decline in oil prices, as Brent has fallen to around $50 per barrel after seemingly stabilizing at $60 for most of 2019. The world is experiencing a large-scale contraction in aggregate demand, and the price of key material inputs, including oil and gas, inevitably suffer.
Again, many of these costs are gone forever. Once authorities contain the coronavirus, and most of the restrictions are lifted, there will be a noticeable boost to consumption: people will be aching for a meal at their favorite restaurant, or a session at their local gym. But it is unlikely that the increase will compensate for the cumulative decrease experienced during the pandemic. For example, workers who are legally required to stay at home do not, upon returning to work, set about working double shifts to compensate for the lost hours; they just resume normal service, meaning that several days of output are simply gone.
Naturally, with the advent of the internet, children can continue to engage in distance learning during the pandemic, and many workers can work well from home. But for chemistry students in a laboratory, or constructions workers in a building site, there is no substitute for the hours put in on site.
In a 2009 paper in the UK’s leading medical publication, the British Medical Journal, Prof. Richard Smith and his colleagues developed a model that accounted for these various channels, and used it to estimate the impact of an influenza pandemic on the UK. Their estimates varied from around 1 to 5 percent of GDP, depending on the level of fatalities. These figures likely underestimate the impact of a global pandemic, which is what the coronavirus is threatening to become.
But one should not fixate on the economic costs. Given that China has been at the center of the unfolding crisis, it is worth closing with a quote by former US president, John F. Kennedy: “The Chinese use two brush strokes to write the word ‘crisis.’ One brush stroke stands for danger; the other for opportunity. In a crisis, be aware of the danger – but recognize the opportunity.”

Lessons from Warren Buffet’s ‘urgent zone’ and managing coronavirus risk
Oliver Schutzmann/Al Arabiya/February 27/2020
Warren Buffett, the “Oracle of Omaha” and one of the world’s most successful investors, published his annual letter to shareholders a few days ago. While the coronavirus, also known as COVID-19, was not mentioned, his thoughts on managing risk provide valuable lessons for businesses during the disease’s deadly outbreak.Whether or not the coronavirus plays out to become a global pandemic remains to be seen, but it has so far spread to dozens of countries outside of China, including almost all the G20 countries, with over 80,000 confirmed cases. It is worth analyzing Berkshire Hathaway’s approach to risk, and trying to find some cues there. Buffet’s focus on risk in his letter centered on a topic of huge importance to Berkshire Hathaway investors: Buffett and his partner Charlie Munger’s age. Buffett is 89; Munger is 96. Buffett addresses this risk by writing:
“Charlie and I long ago entered the urgent zone. That’s not exactly great news for us. But Berkshire shareholders need not worry: Your company is 100 percent prepared for our departure.”He then proceeds to list the succession planning and structural safeguards that exist to mitigate the risk (actually, a certainty) that both of them will not be around for too many more years. In light of the progress of COVID-19, and the impact it is having on business and markets, the virus could also be said to have entered the urgent zone.
Of course, Berkshire Hathaway, is heavily invested in the insurance sector, so risk assessment and management are very much part of everyday business. But this focus on risk informs the entire portfolio, valued at some $560 billion, and Buffett underlines the criticality of risk management at every stage of his communication.
With decades of experience, he has been around long enough to understand that risk can become reality in a heartbeat, and that good investors should plan for that, not ignore it. “A major catastrophe that will dwarf hurricanes Katrina and Michael will occur – perhaps tomorrow, perhaps many decades from now. “The Big One” may come from a traditional source, such as wind or earthquake, or it may be a total surprise involving, say, a cyber-attack having disastrous consequences beyond anything insurers now contemplate,” Buffett said in his 2019 annual letter.
In other words, if you accept that disruption and crisis are inevitable, you are more likely to respond in the right way for staff, shareholders and society. COVID-19 may become what Buffett refers to the “The Big One.” The shipping industry, often the forerunner of macro trends, has taken a significant hit due to the coronavirus. Tim Huxley, founder of Mandarin Shipping, an Asian operator, recently noted that the oil tanker market has “really fallen off a cliff” as consumption in China dropped significantly in response to the virus dampening demand. “There was one report of 600,000 barrels a day being cut from Sinopec’s daily refinery production, which is about 12 percent of their capacity. You have earnings on VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) – which were pretty good at the start of the year at $100,000 a day – dropping back to $25,000 now,” Huxley said.
And it is not only the demand side that is suffering. China provides 14 percent of all container shipping crews in the world. When those crew are unavailable, there is an impact on the supply side. Meanwhile, factory closures have forced companies including Apple to issue a rare profit warning on product availability and product demand in China. While markets had shrugged off the risk of a pandemic, on Monday they fell in unison as the impact of the virus began to materialize. When the Italian authorities took drastic measures, the west took fright. Closer to home, investment firm EFG Hermes canceled next week’s flagship frontier and emerging markets investor conference in Dubai.
All of which comes together to force some hard questions in the boardroom: Are we prepared for a major public health crisis? Is our disaster recovery plan robust? How will we safeguard our people? What do we do if major disruption occurs? Do we have a crisis communications plan?
While the fallout from COVID-19 continues to grow, there are more unknowns than knowns on the investment landscape. Risk has risen, stock prices have fallen, and many investors will continue to position themselves accordingly, moving portfolios into safe haven assets. Companies need to be urgently addressing this new risk. Management and investor relations teams need to be planning and preparing to explain the situation and actions taken to their shareowners.
The single most important factor in any successful investment strategy is the prudent management of risk. Investors take a risk with every asset class; the only difference is degree.
As the world faces up to the shocking scale of COVID-19’s public health risk, businesses, investors and market participants need to remain calm as they factor this new element into their strategies. However, they also need to focus on preparation, planning and risk mitigation should the global economy wake up one morning and find itself in the urgent zone.