LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
February 18.2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
When you give a dinner or a banquet invite the poor, the
crippled, the lame, the blind and you will be blessed, because they cannot repay
you.
Luke 14/01014/One Sabbath, when he went to dine at the house of a ruler
of the Pharisees, they were watching him carefully. And behold, there was a man
before him who had dropsy. And Jesus responded to the lawyers and Pharisees,
saying, "Is it lawful to heal on the Sabbath, or not?" But they remained silent.
Then he took him and healed him and sent him away. And he said to them, "Which
of you, having a son or an ox that has fallen into a well on a Sabbath day, will
not immediately pull him out?" And they could not reply to these things. Now he
told a parable to those who were invited, when he noticed how they chose the
places of honor, saying to them, "When you are invited by someone to a wedding
feast, do not sit down in a place of honor, lest someone more distinguished than
you be invited by him, and he who invited you both will come and say to you,
'Give your place to this person,' and then you will begin with shame to take the
lowest place. But when you are invited, go and sit in the lowest place, so that
when your host comes he may say to you, 'Friend, move up higher.' Then you will
be honored in the presence of all who sit at table with you. For everyone who
exalts himself will be humbled, and he who humbles himself will be exalted. "He
said also to the man who had invited him, "When you give a dinner or a banquet,
do not invite your friends or your brothers or your relatives or rich neighbors,
lest they also invite you in return and you be repaid. But when you give a
feast, invite the poor, the crippled, the lame, the blind, and you will be
blessed, because they cannot repay you. For you will be repaid at the
resurrection of the just."
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News & Editorials published on February 17-18/2020
Larijani in Beirut for Senior Talks
Larijani says Lebanon endures critical stage, confirms Iran ready to cooperate
with new government
Larijani Tells Aoun Iran Ready to Help Lebanon Economically
Lebanese President Aoun meets with Iran Parliament Speaker Larijani
President Aoun meets Chairman of Arab Banks' Executive Committee
Berri Stresses Arab and Islamic Unity in Talks with Larijani
Larijani Discusses Developments with Nasrallah
Geagea: Only Hizbullah Can Now Stop Country's Collapse
Diab Chairs Electricity Meeting Attended by World Bank Team
8 Activists Charged with Bank Torching, Referred to Criminal Court
Fahmi Vows ‘No Leniency’ in His Ministry
Lebanon, Greece, Cyprus to Discuss Oil, Tourism at Upcoming Summit
Palestinian-Lebanese Scholar Ali Al-Yousuf: We Will Rip Out The Israelis'
Spleens And Livers; We Refuse To Accept Repatriation In Lebanon
Iraqi Shiite Militia Leader Sheikh Akram Al-Kaabi: We Have Resumed Covert
Operations against U.S. Forces; Our IEDS, Rockets Will Chase America out Once
Again
Lebanon could implode without serious government reforms, warns World Bank
Iran throws support behind Lebanon's government
Wazni holds financial talks with foreign diplomats, Kubis
Israeli enemy patrol violates technical fence east of Mays alJabal
Abdul Samad, Kubis discuss role of media facing crises
Yammine meets Turkish ambassador, ILO delegation, Federation of Building and
Wood Workers delegation
Protesters march through Hamra Street, deplore Central Bank's financial policy
Launching RISE2030: Featuring first all-women solar crew in Lebanon
Ministry of Public Health, Lebanese Pediatric Society urge parents to get
children vaccinated against measles
Snubbed by Gulf, Lebanon's PM Diab hosts Iranian official/Reuters/Ynetnews/February
17/2020
Hezbollah’s Soleimani statue draws ire/The Arab Weekly/Monday 17/02/2020
Negative response to Larijani’s offer of economic assistance to Lebanon/Najia
Houssari/Arab News/February 17/2020
Why we should sell Lebanon's state-owned power company and how?/Rabih Sfeir/Annahar/February
17/2020
Save me! Lebanese man caught spying on Hezbollah begs Israel not to abandon
him/Judah Ari Gross/Times Of Israel/February 17/2020
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
February 17-18/2020
Gunmen kill 24 in attack near church in Burkina Faso
If Russia can’t curb Iran in Syria, the Saudis ask: How can Israel?/DEBKAfile/February
17/2020
UN: Northwest Syria crisis reaches horrifying new level, 900,000 displaced
Syria’s al-Assad says gains against opposition not yet the end of conflict
Trump demands Russia stop supporting Syria regime’s ‘atrocities’
Syria will reopen Aleppo airport to civilian flights
Syrian Kurdish Party Denies Providing Military Support to Damascus
Trump, Turkey Call for Russia to Stop Backing Syrian Regime 'Atrocities'
UN envoy condemns use rifles loaded with birdshot against Iraqi protesters
Egypt, Kuwait Reject Threats Against Gulf States
Iranian Researcher Ali Akbar Raefipour: Iran Will Empty Its Missile Stockpile on
Israel’s Head if it Faces Collapse; Environmentalists Arrested in 2018 Were
Spies Searching for Our Secret Missile Cities
Under 25 percent of people in Tehran plan to vote in Iran’s elections: Poll
Imprisoned Iranian women call for boycott of upcoming elections in Iran
Larijani Meets Assad in Damascus, Travels to Beirut
Iran speaker Larijani: Iranian businessmen will reconstruct Syria
Palestinian Authority Says Ready for Direct Negotiations With Tel Aviv
Tebboune Calls On Local Officials to Build ‘New Algeria’
Israeli Aircraft Flies over Sudan for First Time, Says Netanyahu
Sudan information minister says trial in The Hague one option for Omar al-Bashir
Omani FM Warns Against Military Confrontation in Strait of Hormuz
Minor Cabinet Reshuffle in Kuwait
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on February 17-18/2020
Is Putin the Solution… or the Problem?/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/February
17/2020
Moqtada al-Sadr and Women/Hazem Saghiehl/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 17/2020
The Future of Syria: We Talk, While Others Think/Eyad Abu Shakral/Asharq Al-Awsat/February
17/2020
Israel’s new strategy in the war with Iran/Yochanan Visser/INN/February 17/2020
Canada: A Totalitarian State-in-Progress/David Solway/American Thinker/February
17/2020
Abbas’ UN speech and the breakdown of Palestinian politics/Ramzy Baroud/Arab
News/February 17/2020
Obstacles to displaced Syrians returning home pose challenge for recovery/Kerry
Boyd Anderson/Arab News/February 17/2020
Why oil rebounded last week despite coronavirus doom/Cornelia Meyer/Arab
News/February 17/2020
Peace deal with the Taliban becoming a reality/Ajmal Shams/Arab News/February
17/2020
One step closer toward achieving compliance with international law/Chris
Doyle/Arab News/February 17/2020
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News &
Editorials published on February 17-18/2020
Larijani in Beirut for Senior Talks
Naharnet/February 17/2020
Leading a delegation of lawmakers and politicians, Iranian parliament speaker
Ali Larijani arrived in Beirut on a two-day visit to meet with senior Lebanese
officials. Upon his arrival at the Rafik Hariri International Airport late on
Sunday, Larijani praised relations between the two countries. “As you all know
Iran is always striving to see brethren Lebanon a free and independent country,”
said Larijani, as he congratulated Lebanon on the formation of a new government.
“We will always strive for excellent bilateral relations between the two
brotherly countries," he told reporters. Larijani is scheduled to meet with
President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri, PM Hassan Diab and Hizbullah leader
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. Larijani’s visit came one day after Hizbullah -Iran’s
ally- unveiled a statue of slain Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in the
southern Lebanese village of Maroun al-Ras.
Larijani says Lebanon endures critical stage, confirms Iran
ready to cooperate with new government
NNA/February 17/2020
President of the Iranian Shoura Council, Ali Larijani, on Monday indicated in a
press conference held at the Iranian Embassy in Beirut that Lebanon was
undergoing a sensitive stage. "We hope that the new government headed by Dr.
Hassan Diab will be able to overcome all difficulties, and we are fully prepared
to cooperate with the Lebanese government in all fields," Larijani said. "Our
support to the Resistance is no secret, and today we have discussed all the
areas of support for Lebanon during meetings with Lebanese officials,
industrialists, economists, and agriculturalists," the Iranian official said.
He dismissed the assassination of Quds Force Commander, Qassem Soleimani, a
terrorist crime. "It is a cowardly and reprehensible operation, and the method
indicates the weakness of the United States, which has not been able to achieve
its goals in any other way.""The US should be aware that we have become more
determined to achieve our goals; mass rallies in Iran have confirmed their
support for the Islamic regime," he added.
Larijani Tells Aoun Iran Ready to Help Lebanon Economically
Naharnet/February 17/2020
Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani held talks Monday with President Michel
Aoun in Baabda and relayed to him a message from Iranian President Hassan
Rouhani. Lebanon’s National News Agency said the message tackled “means to
develop the Lebanese-Iranian relations and involved an invitation to President
Aoun to visit Tehran.”During the meeting, Larijani congratulated Aoun on the
formation of the new government and wished it “success in enhancing stability
and security in the country,” expressing Iran’s willingness to “help improve the
economic situations in Lebanon.”NNA said Aoun and Larijani also “evaluated the
current regional situations and the developments of events in Syria and the
region.”“They also tackled the situations of Syrian refugees in Lebanon and the
need for their return to their country after stability and security returned to
most Syrian regions,” the agency added.
The president also discussed with Larijani the situations in Iran, NNA said.
Larijani had arrived in Lebanon overnight for talks with the country’s top
leaders. The new Lebanese government was born after weeks of negotiations over
its line-up, including with Iran-backed Hizbullah.
Tehran has already expressed willingness to assist Lebanon's economy, including
by supporting the moribund electricity sector. The lack of electricity and other
basic services was one of the reasons why protesters of all ages, sects and
regions took the streets in mid-October to demand the wholesale removal of a
political elite they see as corrupt and incompetent. Offers of support from Iran
-- itself in a difficult economic situation due to Western sanctions -- are met
with suspicion among Lebanon's deeply divided ruling class. "Iran's cash can
help resolve the crisis of a party but not that of a country," Saad Hariri, who
resigned as prime minister under pressure from the street last year, said on
Friday. To rescue the country's economy, the new government has requested the
advice of the International Monetary Fund on what measures to take. The next
major date in Lebanon's economic calendar is March 9, when a $1.2 billion
Eurobond is due to mature. Lebanon can either try to restructure its debt, repay
the Eurobond -- but the cash-strapped state can scarcely afford to -- or default
on its debt.
Lebanese President Aoun meets with Iran Parliament Speaker
Larijani
Al Arabiya English/Monday, 17 February 2020
Lebanese President Michel Aoun is meeting with the Iranian Parliament Speaker
Ali Larijani, who heads a delegation that includes a number of parliamentary and
political figures, according to a post on the Lebanese Presidency official
Twitter account. Larijani's visit to Lebanon comes after new Prime Minister
Hassan Diab formed a government last month. Diab's government is supported by
Hezbollah, which has close links to Iran and is fighting alongside Iranian
troops in Syria. He reportedly wished the new government success and said Iran
is ready to help improve Lebanon's economic situation, according to a tweet from
the Lebanese Presidency Twitter account. Earlier, Larijani visited Damascus,
where he said that Iranian businessmen would help rebuild Syria. Much of the
country has been damaged as the Iran-backed Syrian regime extends its control
over largest swaths of the country.
President Aoun meets Chairman of Arab Banks' Executive
Committee
NNA/February 17/2020
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, received the Chairman of the
Executive Committee of the Union of Arab Banks, Dr. Joseph Tarabay, in the
presence of Former Minster, Salim Jreisatti, this morning at the Presidential
Palace. Tarabay said that he conveyed, to President Aoun, the Arab Banks'
solidarity, and continued cooperation with Lebanese banks, despite the current
crisis which Lebanon is going through. "I conveyed, to his Excellency, the Arab
Banks' experience regarding similar cases, focusing on the call to avoid
judicial pathways and using negotiation with creditors. This is because there is
no dispute over the amount of bonds or maturity dates, rather it can be
requested that the payment would be postponed due to financial circumstances,
which is normal in financial cases" Tarabay stated. ----Presidency Press Office
Berri Stresses Arab and Islamic Unity in Talks with
Larijani
Naharnet/February 17/2020
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri held talks Monday in Ain el-Tineh with his
Iranian counterpart Ali Larijani. “Strength lies in unity and the Lebanese and
the peoples of the region and the Arab and Islamic nations have no choice but to
resort to the approach of unity, rapprochement and dialogue,” Berri told his
visitor. The National News Agency said the talks tackled the bilateral talks
between Lebanon and Iran and that the meeting was attended by the accompanying
Iranian delegation and Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Mohammad Jalal Firouznia.
The 90-minute meeting was followed by a lunch banquet thrown by Berri in honor
of Larijani and the Iranian delegation. The Iranian visitor later left without
making a statement. Larijani had arrived in Lebanon overnight for talks with the
country’s top leaders.
Larijani Discusses Developments with Nasrallah
Naharnet/February 17/2020
Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani held talks Monday in Lebanon with
Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah. A statement issued by Hizbullah’s media
department said the talks tackled “the latest situations in the region, the
ongoing developments and means to confront the political, security and economic
challenges.”Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Mohammad Jalal Firouznia attended the
meeting. Larijani also held talks on Monday with President Michel Aoun, Speaker
Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Hassan Diab.
Geagea: Only Hizbullah Can Now Stop Country's Collapse
Naharnet/February 17/2020
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said Monday that “only Hizbullah can now
stop the country’s collapse” and that “it can pull it out of the current
situation if it implements three steps.”“Hizbullah must remove the cover off its
allies, combat corruption in action not in words, withdraw from the region’s
problems, end its interference in Yemen and other countries, and hand over its
weapons to the Lebanese state, which must regain control of the strategic
decision,” Geagea told MTV. Commenting on Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah’s latest remarks about the country’s crisis, Geagea said Nasrallah’s
call for forming a panel comprising all forces to seek a solution for the
economic crisis is an “attempt to dodge responsibility.”“The decisions are
required from the government,” he said. He added that the call for early
elections will be the main demand of the coming period “once it is confirmed
that the current government will fail in taking the necessary rescue
steps.”“This can be confirmed through its first practical step,” Geagea noted.
Separately, Geagea said talk of an opposition alliance between the LF, al-Mustaqbal
Movement and the Progressive Socialist Party seems to be “premature,” noting
that Mustaqbal and the PSP have not yet decided to engage in a “confrontation”
against the new government. He, however, noted that should Mustaqbal leader
ex-PM Saad Hariri decide to “put his rhetoric into action and go to opposition,
the only party he can rely on is the LF.”
Diab Chairs Electricity Meeting Attended by World Bank Team
Naharnet/February 17/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab on Monday presided over a meeting dedicated to
discussing the country’s electricity file. The Grand Serail meeting was attended
by a World Bank delegation led by regional chief Saroj Kumar Jha. It was also
attended by Deputy PM and Defense Minister Zeina Akar, Energy Minister Raymond
Ghajar and Economy Minister Raoul Nehme. A dated electricity grid, rampant
corruption and lack of reform has left power supply lagging way behind rising
demand since Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war. Government subsidies to state-run
EDL electricity firm have also worsened the cash-strapped government’s budget.
EDL receives one of the largest slices of the government's budget after debt
servicing and salaries. According to the World Bank, government transfers to EDL
averaged 3.8 percent of gross domestic product from 2008 to 2017, amounting to
about half of Lebanon's fiscal deficit. Lebanon is one of the world's most
indebted countries. Lebanon had committed itself to overhauling the electricity
sector during the 2019 CEDRE conference in Paris.
8 Activists Charged with Bank Torching, Referred to
Criminal Court
Naharnet/February 17/2020
Mount Lebanon Examining Magistrate Bassam al-Hajj on Monday issued an indictment
in the file of protest movement activist Rabih al-Zein and seven others. The
indictment says al-Zein “incited to the felony of the premeditated torching of
banks.”He was referred along with seven others to the Mount Lebanon Criminal
Court. Al-Hajj had issued an in-absentia arrest warrant for al-Zein in recent
days.
Fahmi Vows ‘No Leniency’ in His Ministry
Naharnet/February 17/2020
Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmi expressed determination to fight corruption and
counter all kinds of challenges he might face in his ministry, al-Joumhouria
daily reported on Monday. “I will never succumb to pressure or orders that
contradict with my convictions,” said Fahmi, “there are 300 stitches in my body
as a result of injuries suffered during my service in the military, which is
enough to make everyone realize that I am ready to confront all kinds of
challenges I may encounter in the ministry,” said Fahmi in an interview with the
daily.
The Minister said a circular was distributed to civilians and military personnel
at the ministry affirming that “any kind of mediation or unlawful requests will
not be tolerated,” even if it came from his late father. “Even if my late father
came out of his grave to ask me for an unlawful request, I will apologize and
say no I can not do it,” said Fahmi. He concluded saying: “I am keen to push
towards achieving the utmost discipline and regularity in the work of the
ministry."
Lebanon, Greece, Cyprus to Discuss Oil, Tourism at Upcoming Summit
Beirut - Khalil Fleihan/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 February, 2020
Preparations are underway to hold a Lebanese-Greek-Cypriot summit in Nicosia
next March, after it was delayed from June 2019 due to political developments in
Greece. Diplomatic sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that contacts are currently
being led by foreign ministers of the three countries to coordinate between
Beirut, Nicosia and Athens over issues expected to be tackled during the summit,
particularly oil, tourism and security. Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias is
expected to visit Beirut Wednesday to meet with his counterpart Nassif Hitti and
address the agenda and final date of the summit. Dendias’ Cypriot counterpart
Nikos Christodoulides had visited Beirut two weeks ago for the same purpose.
Lebanon had first proposed holding this trilateral summit, which according to
the sources, aims to reach cooperation in tourism, commerce and culture, in
addition to protecting the democratic model in the region.
In the past weeks, the foreign, economic and tourism ministers of Lebanon,
Greece and Cyprus held several meetings to examine these issues. During the
discussions, Lebanon strongly spoke about the issue of Syrian refugees, which
has up until now cost the country $25 billion, in addition to straining the
health, environment, employment and housing sectors. Reports in Beirut revealed
that both Cyprus and Greece said they understood the challenges Lebanon is
facing due to the refugees. They are exerting efforts within the European Union
to provide financial aid for securing their return home.
Palestinian-Lebanese Scholar Ali Al-Yousuf: We Will Rip Out
The Israelis' Spleens And Livers; We Refuse To Accept Repatriation In Lebanon
MEMRI TV/February 17/2020
Palestinian-Lebanese Islamic scholar Sheikh Ali Al-Yousuf, who is a member of
the International Union for the Support of Jerusalem and Palestine, said in a
February 6, 2020 interview on Channel 9 (Turkey) that the Palestinians will rip
out Israel's livers and spleens and deliver a "mighty and deadly" blow to its
heart in a fashion similar to how Israeli forces shot Muhammad Salman Al-Haddad,
a Palestinian 17-year old who was killed by Israeli forces during a February 5
protest in the West Bank. Sheikh Al-Yousuf said that the Palestinians in Lebanon
still "erupt like a volcano" and fight on the Palestinian front while
simultaneously fighting on the Lebanese front against injustice, tyranny, and
oppression and against those who want to "restrain" and "neuter" the
Palestinians by getting them to accept repatriation in Lebanon. He added: "We
continue saying: No to repatriation, no to deportation, yes to returning to
Palestine."
Ali Al-Yousuf: "We will strike a mighty and deadly blow to the heart [of
Israel]. Just as they shot a bullet into the heart of Muhammad Salman [in
Hebron], we will strike their hearts and tear out their livers and spleens,
Allah willing.
"The Palestinians in Lebanon still erupt like a volcano. If you follow events in
Lebanon, you know what the Palestinians there do for their people inside
Palestine. Whenever the winds of resistance blow inside Palestine, all the
refugee camps [in Lebanon] erupt. We erupt and fight on two fronts: We fight on
the Palestinian front, which is the main front for us, and on the [Lebanese]
front, which is the front of injustice, tyranny, and oppression and in which
they want us to be under siege and be denied our rights. This front is no less
important than the front of confrontation because it supports the people of
Palestine.
"They want to restrain us and to neuter us. They want us to give up and accept
repatriation [of refugees in Lebanon], but we continue saying: No to
repatriation, no to deportation, yes to returning to Palestine."
Iraqi Shiite Militia Leader Sheikh Akram Al-Kaabi: We Have
Resumed Covert Operations against U.S. Forces; Our IEDS, Rockets Will Chase
America out Once Again
Al-Nujaba TV (Iraq)/MEMRI/February 17/2020
Sheikh Akram Al-Kaabi, the Secretary-General of the Iraqi Shiite Al-Nujaba
Movement militia, said in a February 15, 2020 speech that aired on Al-Nujaba TV
(Iraq) that following the death of IRGC Qods Force commander General Qasem
Soleimani, the resistance has gone from defense to offense in order to show the
American forces that the road to Baghdad Airport, where Soleimani was killed, is
the Americans' "road to Hell." He said that the resistance has resumed its
covert modus operandi and that it will once again carry out operations against
U.S. forces and document these operations on video. Sheikh Al-Kaabi said that a
decisive, high-profile attack will be carried out, that the Americans will lose
the upcoming war of attrition, and that the IEDs, rockets, and bullets of the
resistance will chase the American forces out of Iraq like they had in 2011.
Lebanon could implode without serious government reforms,
warns World Bank
The New Arab & agencies/February 17/2020
Lebanon could implode unless it develops a new governance strategy with less
corruption and more transparency, a senior World Bank representative told
Bloomberg on Sunday. Marred by a continously deteriorating economic crisis and
widespread corruption, Lebanon has been rocked by protests since October. The
government of current Premier Hassan Diab is looking to the International
Monetary Fund for technical help on handling the country's heavy debt, one of
the highest rates in the world. "Politicians need to stop and listen," Ferid
Belhaj, the World Bank's most senior MENA official, said in Dubai on Sunday.
"You cannot continue doing what you've been doing for years when you see what
the reaction on the street is and when you see what the state of the economy
is."In addition to sending a team to Lebanon, the IMF will also consider
financial assistance "if we are convinced that there is a seriousness in the
approach the government is taking", Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told
Bloomberg TV.
Iran throws support behind Lebanon's government
Annahar Staff/Annahar/February 17/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab, along with President Michel Aoun, met with the
Iranian Shura Council Speaker at the Baaba Presidential Palace. BEIRUT: Prime
Minister Hassan Diab held his first meeting with a foreign official Monday,
garnering support from Iran who pledged to "fully cooperate" with the Lebanese
government. Diab, along with President Michel Aoun, met with the Iranian Shura
Council Speaker at the Baaba Presidential Palace. “We, as a friendly country
toward Lebanon, express our total readiness to support it in all fields,” Ali
Larijani said, adding that he met with leaders of "the resistance" in Syria
before landing in Beirut. Following his meeting with Aoun, Ali Larijani said
that the Islamic Republic stood ready to support Lebanon as it battles with its
most severe economic crisis in decades. According to a statement from the
presidential palace, the two also discussed "the bilateral relations between the
two countries, regional developments, the situation in Syria and the importance
of the return of Syrian refugees to their country." Larijani also extended Aoun
with an invitation to visit Iran's capital Tehran. Diab's newly formed
government recently secured a vote of confidence from parliament but has
received a lukewarm reception from regional allies. Western-allied Arab Gulf
states have held back from inviting Diab to a visit. His government is mostly
made up of Hezbollah backed ministers and its Christian allies.
Wazni holds financial talks with foreign diplomats, Kubis
NNA/February 17/2020
Minister of Finance, Dr. Ghazi Wazni, on Monday held a series of diplomatic
meetings with a number of European and foreign ambassadors to discuss the
country's financial conditions in line with the current circumstances. Wazni met
with Swiss Ambassador to Lebanon, Monika Schmutz Kirgِz, and Norwegian
Ambassador to Lebanon, Leni Stenseth, and discussed with them their countries'
support to Lebanon, its people, and institutions to enhance its economic,
social, and political stability. The Minister also met with Japanese Ambassador
to Lebanon, Takeshi Okubo, and Australian Ambassador to Lebanon, Rebekah
Grindlay, and discussed with them bilateral relations between Lebanon and both
countries, and ways of enhancing them in all fields. As for French Ambassador to
Lebanon, Bruno Foucher, he stressed during his meeting with Minister Wazani
France's support to Lebanon. The French diplomat also called on the government
to implement the required reforms. Minister Wazani concluded his meetings by
meeting with United Nations Special Coordinator in Lebanon, Jan Kubis, who
stressed that the United Nations would exert all the necessary efforts to
support Lebanon under these circumstances. He finally expressed hope that the
Lebanese government would put in place clear procedures to thrash out the crises
taking place in the country, especially in the financial and economic fields.
Israeli enemy patrol violates technical fence east of Mays
alJabal
NNA/February 17/2020
An Israeli enemy infantry patrol, comprised of 14 soldiers with a police dog,
has violated the technical fence in the Kroum al-Sharaqi area in the town of
Mays al-Jabal, National News Agency correspondent reported on Monday.
The enemy patrol backed up by a Merkava tank and another military vehicle,
carried out combing and search operations in this spot for about half an hour,
only to withdraw later without violating the Blue Line. A state of mobilization
and alertness dominates along both sides of the border, with the Lebanese army
and UNIFIL forces running observation patrols in the area.
Abdul Samad, Kubis discuss role of media facing crises
NNA/February 17/2020
Information Minister, Manal Abdul Samad Najd, on Monday welcomed at her
ministerial office with UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jan Kubis, with whom
she discussed the positive role that the media could play in confronting the
prevailing crises and challenges. Kubis confirmed herein keenness on preserving
the rights of journalists to be able to transparently purvey the image on the
ground away from political pressure or any sort of personal threats. "The United
Nations' role in Lebanon is not limited to supervision, as it has been
endeavoring to push matters to a better end whilst steering clear from
intervening in the country's internal politics," Kubis added.
Yammine meets Turkish ambassador, ILO delegation,
Federation of Building and Wood Workers delegation
NNA/February 17/2020
Labor Minister Lamia Yammine on Monday welcomed in her office at the Ministry,
International Labor Organization's Regional Director for Arab States, Dr. Ruba
Jaradat, along with a delegation from the Organization. Discussions reportedly
touched on issues of joint concern. Dr. Jaradat briefed Minister Yammine on the
projects undertaken by the Organization in Lebanon and what it can offer in
light of the existing circumstances. On the other hand, Minister Yammine
received Turkish Ambassador to Lebanon, Hakan Cakil, with whom she discussed the
bilateral relations between the two countries and the importance of bolstering
them for the benefit of the two peoples in Lebanon and Turkey. Yammine later met
with a delegation of the Geneva-based International Federation of Building and
Wood Workers (IFBWW), with talks reportedly touching on means of cooperation
between the Ministry and the Federation with regard to exchanging expertise and
regulating the country's building and wood sector.
Protesters march through Hamra Street, deplore Central
Bank's financial policy
NNA/February 17/2020
Protesters have marched through Hamra Street, chanting slogans deploring the
Central Bank's financial policy, NNA Correspondent reported on Monday.
Protesters have chanted slogans against Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh and
the Association of Banks in Lebanon.
Launching RISE2030: Featuring first all-women solar crew in
Lebanon
NNA/February 17/2020
"RISE2030" is a community-led initiative that focuses on women and youth
empowerment, aiming at building capacity & improving living conditions of those
living in deprived areas, through education, employment, and empowerment. The
initiative includes different components designed together to achieve rural
development, individual empowerment, and decentralization of power. RISE2030 is
built on three major pillars: Empowerment, Equality, and Sustainability. Hence,
Rise2030 launched the first all-women solar team in this cohort to challenge the
gender stereotypes in male-dominated sectors.
The initiative implemented a community installation activity at the material
recovery facility in Qaroun, serving Al Bohaira Federation of Municipalities.
The facility receives municipal solid waste from 6 municipalities, and performs
a range of activities to recover material and achieve higher recycling rates.
This includes waste sorting, baling, storing, and moving.--RISE 2030 Initiative
Ministry of Public Health, Lebanese Pediatric Society urge
parents to get children vaccinated against measles
NNA/WHO/February 17/2020
The recent measles vaccination campaign launched back in December following the
outbreak that has spread across Lebanon have many parents concerned. The
Ministry of Public Health, along with the Lebanese Pediatric Society, WHO and
UNICEF are very concerned about certain misconstrued comments expressed over the
last few weeks by parents on social media and WhatsApp messages. These comments
are found to be wrong and misleading, while the only way to protect the child
against measles is the vaccination.
Since onset in early 2018, the measles outbreak has spread to all eight Lebanese
governorates, counting more than 2,000 reported cases, most prominently among
children less than 10 years of age.
"Choosing to not vaccinate your children during the campaign not only leaves
them susceptible to measles, but also exposes other children to measles," said
Dr. Walid Amar, Director General of the Ministry of Public Health. "The Ministry
of Public Health, with the support of the World Health Organization and UNICEF,
provides safe and effective vaccines free of charge to children through trained
teams of health workers in all institutions. We urge all parents to take advice
from health professionals on health issues because health policies and practices
are evidenced based and not based on rumors".
Measles is a serious and highly contagious disease. If not prevented, measles
can cause serious complications including meningitis, severe diarrhea and
dehydration, pneumonia and ear infections and even death. Measles survivors are
often left with life-long disabilities, such as blindness, deafness and brain
damage. "It is important to vaccinate your children during the campaign. The
third additional dose of the measles containing vaccine is crucial for optimal
immunity and it is safe," explained Dr. Bizri, Head of National Certification
Committee (NCC). "The cold chain at the MoPH Central Drugs Warehouse and the
primary health care facilities are of optimal quality and ensure safe storage of
vaccines. Finally, it is important to note that MoPH provides free vaccines to
some major private sector health facilities".
"The measles vaccine is safe and effective. A child to be better protected needs
to receive at least two doses of Measles, and there is no harm in receiving an
additional dose. There are no reasons children should still be dying of this
disease," added Dr. Majdalani, Head of Lebanese pediatric society.
"Immunizations can save a child's life and vaccines are only given to children
after a long and careful review by scientists, doctors, and healthcare
professionals. The only way to halt the epidemic currently is to vaccinate all
children, between the age of 6 months and 10 years. The Measles vaccine protects
children against avoidable lifelong complications and potentially death. No
child should be left behind" said Dr Shankiti, representative of WHO office in
Lebanon.
The measles vaccine is procured by UNICEF through its Global Supply Division who
is responsible for buying all vaccines and related items for global campaigns to
eradicate polio, eliminate neonatal and maternal tetanus, and control measles.
All vaccines procured through UNICEF are WHO pre-qualified and follow strict
safety standards and quality control. WHO and UNICEF promote vaccine security by
working with manufacturers to ensure there is a reliable supply of quality,
affordable vaccines, and with governments to assess their vaccine requirements.
"UNICEF has a key role in vaccine procurement and procuring immunization
supplies on behalf of around 100 countries annually," said Yukie Mokuo, UNICEF
representative in Lebanon. "For the past 25 years UNICEF has brought quality
vaccine to the Ministry of Public health to vaccinate all children in Lebanon.
Parents and communities are urged to take part in the upcoming measles
vaccination campaign to reach every child."
WHO and UNICEF are working with the ministry of Public Health to support vaccine
supply and cold chain management, on-the-ground coordination, operations support
and monitoring. WHO and UNICEF are also working with the MOPH to ensure clear
communication to mobilize the general public aiming to achieve high turnout of
all children under 10 years old for vaccination.
Representatives from the Ministry of Public Health, WHO, UNICEF, the Lebanese
Pediatric Society regional delagates and the heads of other medical societies,
stressed during the meeting on the need for commitment and active participation
in the campaign, and the need to urge parents and advise them to give their
children the extra dose during the campaign regardless of previous doses and
that the vaccines provided by the Ministry of Public Health are safe and
effective and that the cold chain in its central warehouse and in primary health
care centers are of ideal quality and are subject to safe storage conditions .
The second phase of the national immunization campaign will be launched in April
2020 targeting children aged between 6 months to less than 10 years old. All
children will also receive vaccination with bivalent Oral Polio Vaccine.
Children will be reached in primary healthcare centers/dispensaries, schools,
nurseries and private clinics, as well as in Informal settlements.--WHO
Snubbed by Gulf, Lebanon's PM Diab hosts Iranian official
Reuters/Ynetnews/February 17/2020
Experts say the Iranian-backed terror group Hezbollah's role in helping Diab
form a government could impede securing Western and Gulf aid to solve the
country's financial woes
Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab, who is getting the cold shoulder from Gulf
Arab states, on Monday met Iran's parliament speaker, the first senior foreign
official to visit since Diab's government took office. Gulf states had long
channeled funds to Beirut but have grown alarmed by the rising clout of
Iran-backed terror organization Hezbollah. Lebanon's rich Gulf neighbors
now appear to loathe to help it out of an unprecedented economic and financial
crisis. The heavily armed Hezbollah backed Diab's cabinet after efforts failed
to strike a deal with Saad al-Hariri, a traditional Western ally who stayed out
of the new government. The economic crisis came to a head last year as slowing
capital inflows led to a liquidity crunch and protests erupted against the
ruling elite. Banks are curbing access to cash, the Lebanese pound has slumped
and inflation has spiked. Foreign donors have said they will only help after
Lebanon enacts reforms. However, analysts say Hezbollah's role in forming the
government, which took office last month, could impede securing Western and Gulf
aid. Iranian speaker Ali Larijani said in a news conference that Iran stood
ready to help Lebanon. In response to a question on whether this would close the
door to any Western aid, he said: "We express our full readiness to support but
we do not force this on anyone." Mohanad Hage Ali, a fellow at the Carnegie
Middle East Center, said his visit may not help bolster the new Lebanese
government's image. "It's not very helpful at this stage as Lebanon seeks
foreign aid and a bailout and the help of Gulf Arab states. This is the not
message you want to send," he said. Diab has said his first trip abroad would be
to the Arab region, particularly the Gulf monarchies. But none of them have
officially commented on the government nor extended public invitations to Diab.
An Arab diplomat in the Gulf said only Qatar had invited Diab to visit so far.
"No other government in the Gulf will invite him," the diplomat said. Qatar did
not immediately respond to a request for comment on whether it had sent an
invitation. Lebanese President Michel Aoun's office said he received an
invitation to Tehran during his meeting with Larijani on Monday. Hezbollah
leader Hassan Nasrallah said on Sunday that the cabinet was not "Hezbollah's
government" and that opponents who described it that way were damaging Lebanon's
ties to foreign states and making it harder to combat the crisis. A team of IMF
experts will begin consultations with Lebanon's government in Beirut on
Thursday, a source familiar with the matter said. The heavily indebted
state formally requested the Fund's technical help last week. On the parallel
market - now the main source of hard currency - the price of U.S. dollars
hovered around 2,400 Lebanese pounds on Monday, 60% beyond the official peg of
1,507.5 in place since 1997.
Hezbollah’s Soleimani statue draws ire
The Arab Weekly/Monday 17/02/2020
Analysts warn that perceptions that Beirut is moving closer to Tehran could hurt
Lebanon’s foreign ties
LONDON – Hezbollah’s unveiling of a statue of slain Iranian General Qassem
Soleimani on Saturday drew widespread criticism at a time that many in Lebanon
have expressed fears about the country moving closer to Tehran.
The statue, which is located on a hill in the southern Lebanese border town of
Maroun Al-Ras and features Soleimani pointing his finger towards Israel, was
roundly criticised by many in Lebanon who viewed it as an indication of
increased Iranian influence over the small Mediterranean country. The hashtag
‘#Lebanon is greater than your Soleimani’ was trending in Arabic hours after the
unveiling of the statue, with many twitter users expressing discontent about the
new statue and what it meant for Lebanon. Former Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi
said: “The establishment of the Soleimani statue in the south has nothing to do
with the confrontation with Israel, but rather with the assertion of Iran’s
mandate over Lebanon.” Rifi, who served as the general director of Lebanon’s
Internal Security Forces before being appointed Justice Minister in 2014, added:
“The Quds Forces did not fight for Jerusalem, but rather destroyed Syria and
Iraq and transformed Lebanon into a failed state.” “Are we in Lebanon or Iran?”
asked May Chidiac, a former minister for administrative development. “Why insist
on changing the identity of Lebanon? Every day, Hezbollah confirms that it is a
branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC)… and not a Lebanese
party,” she tweeted. Regional and international commentators also questioned the
wisdom behind the unveiling of the statue. Soleimani was killed on 3 January in
a US drone strike on Iraqi soil which resulted in Tehran retaliating by firing
ballistic missiles at the Ayn AL-Asad airbase in Iraq, raising tensions between
Tehran and Washington to their highest levels in years. “Due to the act that
Iran and Lebanese backed by Iran have extra cash… is it more humane to spend the
money on building a statue of Qassim Soleimani instead of feeding the hungry,”
asked Saudi political commentator Abdulateef Al-Mulhim. “What a waste,” he
tweeted. The unveiling of the statue came just one day before Iranian
parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani arrived in Beirut for a two-day visit to meet
with senior Lebanese officials, another indication of growing ties between
Beirut and Tehran.
“As you all know Iran is always striving to see brethren Lebanon a free and
independent country,” Larijani told reporters after his arrival at the Rafik
Hariri International Airport. “We will always strive for excellent bilateral
relations between the two brotherly countries,” he added.
Lebanon is facing a major economic crisis with banks continuing to curtail
access to deposits and the Lebanese pound slumping, leading to huge inflation
and a rise in unemployment. There are hopes that a new cabinet, led by Prime
Minister Hassan Diab, could bring in much needed investment and international
aid, but analysts warn that Hezbollah’s role in forming the cabinet and a
perceived move closer to Tehran could stymie this. In a televised speech on
Sunday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that supporting the new
government was a “national duty,” adding that opponents who describe the new
cabinet as “Hezbollah’s government” were harming Lebanon’s “Arab and
international ties.”
Negative response to Larijani’s offer of economic
assistance to Lebanon
Najia Houssari/Arab News/February 17/2020
Iranian offer sparks debate as acceptance will be considered a challenge to US
sanctions on Iran
BEIRUT: Iran’s Speaker Ali Larijani’s visit to Lebanon was not welcomed by
political leaders opposing Hezbollah, in what was the first official foreign
visit by a senior politician to Beirut since the formation of a new government
led by Prime Minister Hassan Diab. Apart from Diab, Larijani met with Lebanese
President Michel Aoun and Speaker Nabih Berri. “He (Larijani) conveyed to Aoun a
letter from the Iranian President Hassan Rouhani regarding Iranian-Lebanese
ties, and invited him to visit Tehran,” said Aoun’s media office.
“Lebanon is an influential country in the region. The relations between our two
countries have always been based on friendship and goodwill. Iran is continually
seeking to see the brotherly Lebanon as a free, sovereign and independent
country,” said Larijani at Rafic Hariri International Airport.
Reacting to his visit, former Minister Ashraf Rifi said: “Keep your hands away
from Lebanon for it to stay free, sovereign and independent. The project of
Iranian hegemony and trusteeship will fall sooner or later because it opposes
the people’s freedom and dream of a better future.
“Liberating Lebanon from your hegemony is the gateway to salvation. Iran has
only offered Lebanon destruction and blood. Do not believe the delusion of
dominating over Lebanon through your tool’s weapons,” he added.
Member of Parliament Nadim Gemayel, who is a member of the Kataeb Party, said:
“Welcome to your mini-state and thank you for your wishes. Start by keeping your
hands and evil away from Lebanon. Tell that to Hassan Nasrallah, the chief of
Wilayat Al-Faqih in our country.
“Our situation today is a direct result of Hezbollah’s corruption, illegal
weapons and indiscriminate wars. They led investors and the international
community to lose confidence in the country and brought economic pressures and
sanctions,” he added.
Keep your hands away from Lebanon for it to stay free, sovereign and
independent. The project of Iranian hegemony and trusteeship will fall sooner or
later because it opposes the people’s freedom and dream of a better future.
Ashraf Rifi, Former Lebanese minister
Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hezbollah, had previously given a speech
calling for a boycott of US goods in Lebanon. In it, he had stated his
confidence that Iran would make up any shortfalls, and was ready to provide
Lebanon’s armed forces with necessary arms and equipment.
The offer was echoed by the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammad Javad
Zarif during an official visit to Beirut.
“My country is ready to provide assistance and cooperate with the Lebanese
government in all fields. We are waiting for this desire to be shared by the
Lebanese side,” he said. The Iranian offer sparked a debate in Lebanon, as
acceptance would be considered a challenge to US sanctions on Iran and a
deviation from Lebanon’s disassociation policy.Nasrallah reiterated the offer
and suggested resorting to China to resolve the country’s chronic crises in a
speech last November. Larijani’s visit on Sunday coincided with another move by
Hezbollah, to unveil a monument dedicated to Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani,
killed in a US drone strike in January, on the Southern Lebanese border with
Israel. Former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora reacted by saying: “The unveiling of
the monument is an unhelpful move and an unwise action.”
Why we should sell Lebanon's state-owned power company and
how?
Rabih Sfeir/Annahar/February 17/2020
If these measures are implemented, EDL will become efficient and profitable
instead of costing $1.5 billion in subsidies each year.
Privatization plans can expect opposition from politicians, hostility within the
industries to be privatized, resistance from the financial community, and
bewilderment in the population as a whole, argues John Moore in an article
published in the January–February 1992 issue of Harvard Business Review.
Moore, a minister for ten years in Margaret Thatcher’s government, explains that
when his party took office in 1979, the UK economy was in "serious trouble."
Yet, the government's privatization plans were met with stiff opposition back
then, even by Britain's financial community.
But history proved them wrong.
On that premise, let’s head straight to why we should sell the state-owned
Electricité Du Liban and how.
EDL has long depleted and drained the Lebanese treasury for a myriad of reasons
while its performance leaves much to be desired.
- It costs the government an average of 1.5 billion US dollars a year.
- It has failed to provide round the clock electricity supply for over 30 years.
- It is causing severe pollution in several areas.
- No Lebanese government was able to devise a proper plan to manage the power
sector, let alone execute it.
Now, let’s move to the rationale of politicians, who have always argued against
privatization.
- We should fix and revamp EDL before selling it to fetch a better price.
- Why should we sell government properties when Lebanon can benefit from these
assets if they are well managed?
- Our country’s properties are not for sale; they are our "pride”.
- Corrupt politicians’ companies will buy it for pennies.
- Once EDL is privatized, the cost per KWH will increase tremendously on
citizens.
What our politicians really mean, however, is the following:
- If we sell EDL, we lose all personal and party benefits.
- If we privatize EDL, we won't be able to ensure jobs to our constituents, just
before the elections.
- I (a politician) own a private generator business in my district.
Choosing what to privatize is crucial, for instance, EDL's value is capped by
Lebanon's population size and economic diversity when compared to Beirut port,
which can theoretically grow in value if Lebanon assumes the role of a regional
and global trade hub.
That said, the privatization of EDL comes with its own set of challenges in
terms of methods (DCF, Multiples, and comparables). To derive EDL's value, I
will use two approaches, assuming an interest from Electricité De France. EDF is
83% owned by the French government which announced its intention to
conditionally assist Lebanon.
The comparable per capita approach
France's per capita electricity consumption is 6,900KWH/year while Lebanon's
consumption currently stands at 2,600. The difference is mainly due to France
having longer winters and being home to energy-intensive industries.
So, let us assume that we will reach France's economic sophistication (taking
the best scenario in our sell-side analysis), Lebanon's total need for energy
would reach 34.5 billion KWH given a population of 5 million excluding Syrian
refugees.
Whether applying peak vs off-peak electricity rates or the current tranches
system being applied in Lebanon, EDF can easily deliver the KWH at around USD
0.26 (Note that EDF delivers the KWH in the UK at a flat rate of £0.19 and €0.18
in France). While a flat rate is cheaper for industries, our politicians are
likely to opt for the populist peak vs off-peak electricity approach. Either
way, the total cost will drop for consumers after accounting for the fees
charged by private generators.
Since mature energy companies trade at a price to sales ratio of 0.45 (EDF case)
to 1, with EDL generating estimated revenues of USD9 billion, it can have a
value of USD6.75Billion.
The comparable per user approach
Using EDF revenue per customer of around $2,200/year, EDL, which at best can
have 2 million subscribers, would generate revenues of $4.4 billion.
EDL in this scenario can have a market value of ($4.4 billion x 0.75 P/S) $3.3
billion.
An average of both methods gives a best-case market value estimate of around $5
billion. My best unorthodox estimate would be USD3 billion.
Regardless of EDL’s valuation, the privatization of the state-owned power
company must be coupled with terms and conditions, to name a few:
- Layoffs, if needed, have to be fair and agreed upon before EDL is sold.
- EDF’s future purchase of properties to build new power plants must be approved
by the Lebanese government within a certain deadline.
- A clear and reasonable timeline must be outlined to upgrade the power grid and
boost energy supply.
- If EDL generates higher revenues than estimated within the first 10 years,
more value should be returned to the government either in the form of higher
taxes or a share in the company (never an influential share).
- In case EDL shares are to be floated on the stock market, the government
should require equity ownership but not a controlling stake.
- The decision to float EDL's shares on the market should lie only in the hands
of the company's management and board.
-While EDL should remain the sole electricity provider for several years, the
government must later open the electricity sector to competition while capping
the price of the kWh.
If these measures are implemented, EDL will become efficient and profitable
instead of costing $1.5 billion in subsidies each year. Simply put, we are
selling the good future of a bad company at a good price with upside protection
should the sector show more potential.
I say forget the haircut, the tough measures our populace must bear or any other
intimidation; sell smartly, improve the service and cut their sources of
corruption which is the root cause of the evil we are living in.
*Rabih G. Sfeir is a chartered financial analyst with 17 years of experience in
commercial credit analysis, private equity, and capital markets.
Save me! Lebanese man caught spying on Hezbollah begs
Israel not to abandon him
Judah Ari Gross/Times Of Israel/February 17/2020
https://www.timesofisrael.com/save-me-lebanese-man-caught-spying-on-hezbollah-begs-israel-not-to-abandon-him/
‘Benjamin Philip’ says he worked for the Mossad for 9 years, helping to fight
the Iran-backed Hezbollah; now he faces deportation to Lebanon and says Israel’s
nowhere to be found.
EXCLUSIVE'THEY THINK I'M A DUMB ARAB, BUT I STILL LOVE ISRAEL'
Benjamin Philip decided to help Israel and the Mossad fight Hezbollah in 2011,
gathering intelligence on the Lebanese terror group’s activities and recruiting
additional assets within the organization, including, he says, a member of one
of its most elite units. His work, he says, has ruined his life and the lives of
his family members in Lebanon.
After being found out as a Mossad asset and incarcerated in a Hezbollah prison
for two years, Philip fled his native Lebanon in 2015, eventually winding up in
East Asia, where he lived for approximately two years until he was forced to
flee late last year as he was facing deportation. Now seeking asylum in Europe,
he says Israel — the country he’s helped in its fight against the Iran-backed
terrorist organization since 2011 — is refusing to take him in or even respond
to his phone calls and emails.
The Prime Minister’s Office, which is responsible for the Mossad, refused to
comment on the case.
Philip says he contacted The Times of Israel out of a sense of desperation,
hoping — as a last-ditch effort — that by making his case public, he could
pressure Israel and the Mossad to help him, as he says they promised to do.
Benjamin Philip is not his real name; it is a pseudonym. The Times of Israel is
legally barred from publishing his true identity or any identifying details,
despite Philip explicitly requesting that we name him, believing that it will
help him in his effort to seek asylum, and despite the fact that Hezbollah and
the Lebanese government already know who he is, having incarcerated him and
indicted him, respectively.
Philip has tried to contact any Israeli official possible, emailing virtually
all public email addresses for the Prime Minister’s Office, the Mossad, the
military, the Foreign Ministry and nearly every other government office. In
December, he received a response from the office of Israel’s ombudsman, saying,
“We brought your complaint to the attention of the security forces.”
A former Israeli defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said he
was unfamiliar with Philip’s case, but explained that there were several reasons
why the Mossad might cut ties with one of its assets, including questions about
their trustworthiness, security concerns, or whether or not they were still
valuable to the organization, regardless of their contributions in the past.
“It’s a cold, cold world out there,” the former official said.
Philip maintains that while he is frustrated and disheartened by the actions of
his Mossad handlers and the Israeli government, he feels no ill will toward the
State of Israel.
“My complaints against the Mossad are like a lover blaming a lover. It’s not a
blame with hate,” he said. “I’m not speaking out to do something against Israel.
I’m doing this to correct how the government handles these things. Why do you
have to be like the KGB? You finish with someone and you throw him away.”Most of
the things that the Israeli government brags about, the attacks in Syria and
attacks in Gaza, the attacks on Iranian targets. It doesn’t happen because the
Mossad is sitting at home and a fairy tells them the Iranians are moving weapons
here or there.
Officially labeled a traitor and a spy for Israel, Philip says he will likely
face decades of imprisonment if he’s deported back to Lebanon — a scenario that
he, a gay man, cannot accept, knowing that such a sentence in a Lebanese prison
would mean rape and torture.
He is now seeking asylum in Europe, having scraped together enough money for a
plane ticket from East Asia by selling some of his electronic devices. He is
receiving assistance from a local LGBTQ organization, including therapy for the
trauma and abuse he experienced throughout his life, and believes he has a good
chance of being granted asylum. However, if this fails and it appears he will be
sent back to Lebanon, Philip says he is seriously considering suicide.
“Of course I’m not going to go to Lebanon. I’ve already ordered carbon monoxide
gas. I’ve been looking for the least painful ways to commit suicide. I’ve
already spent two years in prison. I know that humiliation. I can’t imagine what
would happen if I went back to Lebanon,” he said over the phone late last year.
Avi Katz
Philip first contacted The Times of Israel in August 2019, after he says the
Mossad broke contact with him and stopped providing him with living expenses.
(Under the visa for the country where he lived in east Asia, which he says
Israel paid for, he was not able to legally work, forcing him to be further
dependent on Israel.) In September, I traveled abroad to meet Philip, speaking
to him three times in person, in addition to many conversations over the
internet, using encrypted applications, in the interim months. The location of
these meetings is also legally barred from publication.
In the hours of interviews and conversations with Philip, he was calm, collected
and forthcoming. His recollections were consistent, but did not appear to be
rehearsed. He provided many screenshots of emails and WhatsApp conversations
that he said were with representatives of the Mossad with whom he’d been in
contact. The Times of Israel could not independently verify that these were in
fact from Israeli agents, but was able to corroborate certain parts of Philip’s
story. Some pieces of evidence that Philip provided, which were used to validate
portions of his story, are also barred from publication.
‘Like stray dogs’
Philip hopes that Israel will intervene on his behalf and save him from
deportation, but is growing increasingly doubtful that this will occur.
“Israel, a country that is capable of sending a drone into Dahiya, it can’t save
me?” he asked, referring to a drone attack on a Hezbollah target inside Beirut
in August that was attributed to Israel.
“They’re treating us like stray dogs,” Philip said of the Mossad and the Israeli
government.
Philip’s mother in Lebanon is already being harassed by Hezbollah, with members
of the terror group breaking into her house and trashing it in December; and his
father has effectively been excommunicated from his religious community, he
says.
Israel, a country that is capable of sending a drone into Dahiya, it can’t save
me?
Philip is not the first Lebanese asset of the Mossad to accuse the organization
of abandoning him. In 2014, Amin al-Hajj, codenamed Rummenigge, a longtime
Israeli agent who gathered critical intelligence on Palestinian terror groups in
Lebanon beginning in the 1980s, went public about his disappointing interactions
with Israel’s security services, which ended with him stuck in Israel with an
expired temporary residence permit, no health care and no job.
“It’s a little hard for me to understand why I’m being treated like this; why,
after everything I did, everything I provided, all those who were caught thanks
to me, they’re tossing me aside like a used rag,” al-Hajj told Yedioth
Ahronoth’s intelligence correspondent Ronen Bergman.
Al-Hajj, at least, successfully made it out of Lebanon and into Israel.
According to Philip, one of the people he helped the Mossad recruit as an asset
was a former member of Hezbollah’s crack Radwan Unit, allowing the intelligence
service to gather critical information about the Shiite terror group, an Iranian
proxy. The former Hezbollah member agreed to have his story included here, but
asked that his name not be published, instead asking to be referred to by the
pseudonym “Gabriel.”
Earlier this year, Gabriel was also imprisoned for approximately two months by
Hezbollah for being an Israeli spy. He was released in August, after his family
convinced the terror group that he was mentally ill — indeed he has been
diagnosed as bipolar — Philip says. Upon release, Gabriel was placed under house
arrest.
In late September, Hezbollah officials told Gabriel that he was going to be
exiled from Lebanon and forced to remain outside the country for at least five
years. At the end of October, he fled the country to be with Philip. He plans to
seek asylum elsewhere.
To keep himself relevant, Philip even now maintains contact with other Hezbollah
operatives and their relatives through social media — without them knowing he’s
an Israeli asset — in order to gather intelligence about the terror group. In
many cases, he makes contact with homosexual Hezbollah members through Tinder,
Grindr and other relationship smartphone applications. Despite ostensibly being
a strict Shiite Muslim organization, Hezbollah has a “surprising” number of gay
members, Philip says.
I know that they just think I’m a dumb Arab. But I still have an Israeli flag in
my house. I love Israel. I do love the country. It’s a principle. I felt my
identity was closer to Israel than to Lebanon.
Philip acknowledges that he has not been a “perfect person” in his interactions
with Israel, having initially lied to the Mossad about aspects of his past and
also using the threat of exposing the identities of agents in order to pressure
the organization into providing him with the resources that he says they have
promised. The Times of Israel made it clear to Philip that it would not
participate in such an exposure as it would potentially put lives and Israeli
national security at risk and would serve no concrete benefit to the public.
“I was just trying to provoke a response,” he said. “I would never sell them
out. I could go to the Iranians or Hezbollah and make a deal, but I would never
do this. It goes against my principles. I fucking hate Hezbollah and Iran — I
wish to see their end.”
Philip maintains that the level of assistance he and Gabriel provided Israel are
worth far more than what the Mossad has given them. He routinely expresses
frustration, anger and deep disappointment at his situation and the Israeli
officials responsible for it, but speaks of the Jewish state with admiration.
“I know that they don’t give a shit about my life. I know that they don’t give a
shit about my future. I know that they just think I’m a dumb Arab. But I still
have an Israeli flag in my house,” he said. “I love Israel. I do love the
country. It’s a principle. I felt my identity was closer to Israel than to
Lebanon.”
A desperate childhood
Philip does not look like the type of person who has dedicated their life to
fighting an international terror group. He is short and wiry, with striking
bright blue-green eyes, a meticulously sculpted beard and dangling earrings. In
all of our interactions, he sported pristine tight black clothes, tinted
glasses, silver jewelry and wide-soled black platform sneakers. He looks more
like a chief graphic designer for a slick new startup than a globetrotting spy.
He speaks impeccable English, Arabic and French and sprinkles his discussions of
Israel with Hebrew words and phrases. On Fridays he wishes me a “Shabbat
shalom.” He curses liberally, but always apologizes for it. He prides himself on
his ability to read and manipulate people, which routinely led me to question
his motives, perhaps unfairly. When he interrupted one of our interviews to give
money to a homeless man outside the cafe where we met, was that altruism or a
performance for my benefit? I’ll never know for sure. I’m not sure the homeless
man cares.
Philip was born to Lebanese parents elsewhere in the Middle East. The family
later returned to Lebanon, living in the area of Nabatieh, a city known to be a
Hezbollah stronghold.
The Hezbollah terror group was created in 1985 in response to Israel’s
then-occupation of southern Lebanon, which began three years earlier following
the First Lebanon War. In the ensuing 35 years, the Iran-backed group has
swelled into a massive militia with thousands of fighters and an arsenal of some
120,000 rockets and missiles of varying sizes and explosive capabilities. Israel
fought Hezbollah in the 2006 Second Lebanon War, and the organization is
currently considered the Jewish state’s primary military foe in the region.
Philip recalls having “a desperate childhood in a really beautiful village” in
southern Lebanon. As a child, he joined Hezbollah’s youth scouts, and it was
during that time that his hatred toward the group developed, he says.
When he was four years old, Philip says, he was sexually abused by the son of a
senior Hezbollah commander. “That went on for 11 years.”
Throughout that period, he says he was routinely humiliated, bullied and raped
by the senior Hezbollah commander’s son and others. Philip recalls that one of
the few bright points of his childhood was watching cartoons on Israel’s Channel
1, whose broadcast signal reached their home in southern Lebanon.
“My brother’s favorite show was ‘Moomins,'” Philip said, referring to a Japanese
cartoon based on a Finnish book series and dubbed into the Hebrew, about a
family of hippopotamuses.
As a teenager, he denounced his abuser in his hometown mosque, noting the
hypocrisy in the fact that while he was insulted for being homosexual, the
person raping him was not. “They said, ‘He’s not gay, he’s ill. You’re gay, and
a person like you should be killed and burnt,'” Philip recounted.
The next day he was picked up by members of Hezbollah and threatened: “They told
me, ‘If you ever speak about what you said yesterday, you will disappear.'”
After a suicide attempt, Philip’s parents decided he should leave their hometown
of Nabatieh and study in a boarding school in Beirut.
Becoming a target for Hezbollah harassment
Philip graduated from high school, studied in the American University of Beirut
and then started working in a variety of non-governmental organizations in
Lebanon.
Philip said that during that time he also worked as an observer for the Lebanese
Association For Democratic Elections group.
“These were the golden years of my life. I was in my country, doing what I
loved,” Philip said.
The following year, everything changed. “The year 2010 was the worst year of my
life,” he said.
While working as an observer during the country’s national elections in 2009,
Philip reported on illegal activities by Hezbollah at polling places in the
village of Houmine el Faouqa, near Nabatieh.
“After I did that, I was put on a list,” he said.
Suddenly, he says, friends would get phone calls from blocked numbers, asking
why they would want to “hang out with a gay guy”; the principal of a school
where Philip was working was told to fire him; and his boyfriend at the time was
outed as a homosexual to his conservative Sunni Muslim family.
I decided — this is a war, literally a war. And those shitty people, I want to
make them fucking pay for everything they did
“They went to his family and told them, ‘Your son is gay and he’s dating
someone.’ His family beat him up, a lot,” Philip said.
At that point, he said, he decided to change his life’s purpose to fighting
Hezbollah.
“When this happened, I decided — this is a war, literally a war. And those
shitty people, I want to make them fucking pay for everything they did,” he
said.
First the CIA, then the Mossad
Philip was initially wary of reaching out to Israel and so instead, he says, he
contacted the CIA and offered to give the Americans information about Hezbollah.
“I was afraid of contacting the Mossad because I thought then that the Mossad —
they use you and then they kill you. That’s what you used to hear in Lebanon,”
he said.
Somehow Hezbollah discovered that Philip was working with the Americans and
arrested him in 2011, imprisoning him for a few months, before releasing him on
condition that he become a double agent, providing the terror group with
intelligence on the CIA.
Fearing that he would again be arrested by Hezbollah since he had no intention
of acting as a double agent, Philip fled Lebanon with his mother, traveling
first to Syria — before the civil war began there in earnest — and then to
Turkey.
In Turkey, he says, he made his first contact with the Mossad, eventually
meeting with agents of the organization abroad, in a number of countries around
the world that do not require visas for Lebanese citizens. Philip says that at
this point the US cut ties with him.
In December 2012, Philip says, his problems with the Mossad began. He had never
told the Israeli spy service that he had previously been imprisoned by
Hezbollah, and the Mossad wanted him to return to Lebanon and gather
intelligence about the terror group from there, he says. Fearing that he would
be again sent to prison, Philip took off, traveling around the world in order to
avoid returning to Lebanon.
The Mossad caught up with him in East Asia and he confessed to his Israeli
handlers that he had not told them of his first incarceration by Hezbollah.
He then traveled to Europe and sought asylum in Switzerland. According to
Philip, Swiss officials denied his request, saying they couldn’t independently
verify that he was gay and at risk of abuse for his sexual orientation in
Lebanon, adding that since Israel was the cause of his problems, it should take
him in.
He was put on a plane and flown back to Beirut. “After all this, I had no choice
but to go back to Lebanon,” Philip said.
The second arrest
Hezbollah officials assured his parents that Philip would not be abducted or
immediately imprisoned, but would be required to speak with them. Panicking,
Philip tried to make contact with Israel in order to leave Lebanon on October 7,
2013.
“I went to an internet cafe and I did the most stupid thing ever — I was afraid
and I opened the Mossad website and I messaged them: I’m in Lebanon and I might
be arrested. Please help me. At least let me jump over the border,” he recalled.
“While I was writing the message, they arrested me.”
According to Philip, a group of young men entered the internet cafe, hit him and
then took him away. He assumes that the owner of the cafe saw what he was doing
on the computer and contacted Hezbollah.
Philip says he was taken back to a Hezbollah prison, put in a cell a few doors
down from where he’d been put the first time. “The first time I was in cell 13;
the second time it was 17,” he said.
Back in Hezbollah prison
Philip was imprisoned for two years before his family was able to convince
Hezbollah to release him, with his mother threatening to go public on the years
of rape and sexual assault he faced at the hands of a senior Hezbollah leader’s
son.
Philip says he was not subjected to physical torture during his time in prison,
but was psychologically abused and subjected to weeks of intense interrogation.
But, he says, he never broke.
“I didn’t tell them I worked for the Mossad. I told them I’d just written them
that I wanted to work with them, that it was my first contact with them. I’m not
sure if they believed me. After 15 days, they got bored with me, so they left me
in prison,” he said.
I got a small, thin mattress in the corner where I can sleep and sit. A blanket,
a spoon, a plate that looks it it’s a dog bowl — for more humiliation. A water
bucket. Three small plastic cups with toothpaste, soap and shampoo; a Quran and
a prayer book — and that’s all that you have
Philip says he believes if he were to return to Lebanon now, Hezbollah would not
refrain from torturing him as they did the last time.
“It will be totally different this time. This time, I’m accused of recruiting
someone from Radwan,” he said, referring to Gabriel, whom he recruited from the
Hezbollah crack unit.
From his two years in prison, Philip recalls the minutiae of prison life, the
day-to-day indignities, how everything was painted a blinding white “to drive
you crazy,” he said.
“I got a small, thin mattress in the corner where I can sleep and sit; a
blanket, a spoon, a plate that looks it it’s a dog bowl — for more humiliation;
a water bucket, three small plastic cups with toothpaste, soap and shampoo; a
Quran and a prayer book — and that’s all that you have,” he recalled.
With a sad smile and a glazed look in his eyes, he added, “It was the worst
shampoo I have ever tried in my entire life.”
Two years, a month and a day after he was sent to prison — on November 8, 2015 —
Philip was released. “You have no idea, it was an overwhelming day. For two
years you don’t see the sun,” he said.
When I expressed surprise that he was released from prison after only two years
for what seemed like a serious crime of cooperating with Hezbollah’s sworn enemy
Israel, Philip said the sentence was relatively common for the terror group.
“Hezbollah doesn’t keep people in prison forever. Standard is two years then
exile, unless you’re a member of the Islamic State or a murderer,” he said.
Upon his release, Philip was told to leave Lebanon. He says he traveled to
Turkey, Dubai and Hong Kong, among other countries, working odd jobs. “I was a
photographer, I did some translations, I helped with Syrian refugees in Turkey,”
he said.
Recruiting a Radwan fighter
In February 2017, when he was living in Dubai, he decided to again visit Lebanon
in order to see his family. Philip’s parents reached out to the terror group for
permission, and he was allowed to return.
He says that during this trip, he recruited Gabriel, the Hezbollah Radwan
commando, as a Mossad asset.
“He and I went camping for two days, and I convinced him to work with the Mossad,”
Philip said.
“I traveled back to Dubai, and I sent a message to the Mossad. They answered and
they were really interested because he was in the Radwan unit.”
The Radwan unit is one of Hezbollah’s most elite forces. Had Israel not
succeeded in locating and destroying the terror group’s attack tunnels into
northern Israel last winter, Radwan fighters would have been the ones coming
through them to massacre and pillage Israeli border towns.
Getting a member of the unit to defect represented a significant coup for the
Mossad.
In 2017, Philip says, the Mossad told him to move to East Asia. He assumes this
was because of the relative ease with which he could get a visa.
Later that year, he met Mossad agents in Asia, received a special communication
device from them and was instructed to return to Lebanon in order to deliver it
to Gabriel, which he says he did in September 2017.
From that time, Gabriel was able to directly provide the Mossad with detailed
evidence on Hezbollah’s activities.
This continued until May 2019, when Gabriel was arrested suddenly by Hezbollah
and imprisoned. Philip says he does not know how the terror group came to
suspect that Gabriel was spying for Israel. He says he immediately contacted his
Mossad handlers with news of the arrest and warned them that the communication
device had also fallen into Hezbollah’s hands.
This is when his relationship with the Mossad again took a turn for the worse.
According to Philip, despite his warning, the Israeli spy service sent a message
to the communication device identifying him as the person who recruited Gabriel.
He was later informed that the Mossad did this deliberately as a way to ensure
that Hezbollah wouldn’t recruit him and Gabriel as double agents.
Despite his arrest and two-year imprisonment by Hezbollah for being an Israeli
spy, Philip says this message effectively sealed his fate with the terror
organization and ensured that he could never safely return to his native
Lebanon.
What next?
Philip is now seeking refuge in Europe, where he has some friends. However, this
process is expensive and it may fail, as did his last attempt in Switzerland,
though Philip hopes that publishing his story will make his asylum request more
viable.
“Seeking asylum is risky,” he said. “If it doesn’t work, which it might not, I
could again be deported [to Lebanon].”
Philip says he’s also considered working with other intelligence services,
including Kuwait’s, but ultimately decided against it because “they’re against
Israel. I don’t want to be with the other side.”
His relationship with Israel and the Mossad is complicated. He’ll rail against
the government and his handlers and how they’ve abandoned him one minute, and a
moment later, refer to the Jewish state with admiration and a sense of devotion.
In the Mossad, they told me, Israel is a nation of laws. Where is the law? What
is the law?
He acknowledges that he never signed an agreement with the Mossad or otherwise
made a formal arrangement about his future, but said he believed there was a
“moral contract” that Israel should honor.
“In the Mossad, they told me, Israel is a nation of laws. Where is the law? What
is the law?
Philip says he believes that if he is deported back to Lebanon, Hezbollah — a
terror group known for its adept public relations abilities — would use him to
set an example for what happens to people who cooperate with the Mossad, which
could dissuade others from helping Israel in its fight against the terror group.
Hopefully one day, Lebanese will have hummus in Haifa and swim in Tel Aviv and
eat shakshuka at Dr. Shakshuka in Jaffa; and Israelis will go to Faraiya to go
skiing. I hope that day will come.
“If I go back to Lebanon, they’ll use it against Israel. I came to work with the
Mossad because I believe in peace and love and living together for a prosperous
future as neighbors. I love Israel and I have been fighting for peace my whole
life,” he said.
“Hopefully one day, Lebanese will have hummus in Haifa and swim in Tel Aviv and
eat shakshuka at Dr. Shakshuka in Jaffa; and Israelis will go to Faraiya to go
skiing. I hope that day will come.”
Philip says he has largely accepted that he may eventually commit suicide in
order to avoid returning to Lebanon and facing rape and torture there. But he is
concerned about what will happen after his death.
“I don’t want my body to be sent back to Lebanon. The same people who raped me,
the same people who bullied me, the same people who sexually harassed me —
they’ll see my naked body being washed and put in a coffin and a tomb. I’m just
afraid that even my death won’t be with dignity,” he said.
“Regardless of how things end, I do feel proud. I feel proud that I am from a
country where I could have been a terrorist, where I could have been a member of
Hezbollah, but I chose not to be part of this fucking terrorist organization,”
he said. “I’m not a killer, I’m not a terrorist.”
Despite feeling abandoned and scorned by Israel, Philip says he still believes
people in Lebanon should cooperate with Israeli intelligence.
“I personally encourage people to keep working with the Mossad. It’s a real way
to stop Hezbollah, and we really need to stop Hezbollah,” he said.
Philip notes that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior Israeli
officials routinely boast of the country’s military prowess, but that they
rarely if ever acknowledge the sources of the intelligence that makes this
possible.
“Most of the things that the Israeli government brags about, the attacks in
Syria and attacks in Gaza, the attacks on Iranian targets — it doesn’t happen
because the Mossad is sitting at home and a fairy tells them the Iranians are
moving weapons here or there. It’s because there are people like me, choosing to
work and putting their lives at risk,” he said.
“All the steps on this pyramid are part of this victory. The people at the
bottom shouldn’t be left out.”
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on February 17-18/2020
Gunmen kill 24 in attack near church
in Burkina Faso
NNA/Associated Press/February 17/2020
Gunmen killed 24 men and kidnapped three others on Sunday in Burkina Faso, an
official said. The mayor of Boundore commune, Sihanri Osangola Brigadie, said
the attack occurred in the town of Pansy in Yagha province. The roughly 20
attackers separated men from women close to a Protestant church. Those killed
include the church's pastor, Brigadie said. At least 10 other people were
injured. "It hurt me when I saw the people," Brigadie said after visiting some
of the victims in the hospital in Dori town, 180 kilometers (110 miles) from the
attack. The gunmen looted oil and rice from shops and forced the three youth
they kidnapped to help transport it on their motorbikes, he said. Both
Christians and Muslims were killed before the church was set on fire, said a
government security official in Dori who spoke on condition of anonymity because
they weren't authorized to speak to the media.
Attacks have targeted religious leaders in the area in the past. Last week, also
in Yagha province, a retired pastor was killed and another pastor was abducted
by gunmen, according to an internal security report for aid workers seen by The
Associated Press. Extremist violence has dramatically escalated in once-peaceful
Burkina Faso. Analysts are concerned that attacks against civilians, including
against Christians, are increasing "at an alarming rate," said Corinne Dufka,
West Africa director for Human Rights Watch. "Perpetrators use victims’ links to
government or their faith to justify the killings, while others appear to be
reprisal killings for killings by the government security forces," she said.More
than 1,300 civilians were killed in targeted attacks last year in Burkina Faso,
more than seven times the previous year, according to Armed Conflict Location
and Event Data Project, which collects and analyzes conflict information. The
insecurity has created a humanitarian crisis. More than 760,000 people are
internally displaced, according to the government. ----
If Russia can’t curb Iran in Syria, the Saudis ask: How can
Israel?
DEBKAfile/February 17/2020
The Saudi paper Sharq al-Awsat reported on Feb. 15 that the Russians had given
up on curbing Iran’s military presence in Syria. It cited Saudi intelligence
sources in eastern Syria where the Saudis took control of Syria’s eastern oil
region in December under the US aegis. Those sources wonder how Israel can hope
to succeed where the Russians have failed. On Thursday, Feb. 13, they note,
Israel took out four Iranian officers in an attack on a new Iranian weapons
consignment delivered in the Damascus area. Two of the dead were Revolutionary
Guards generals – Riday Mahmadi, commander of Iranian forces in the Damascus
region, and Haj Hossein, who was in charge of arming Iranian forces in Syria.
While this was yet another impressive Israeli intelligence feat, its impact will
be short-lived, say DEBKAfile’s military sources. Tehran will rapidly replace
the two officers, in the same way as it quickly slotted a Hizballah loyalist
close to Hassan Nasrallah into the vacancy left by the US assassination of Al
Qods chief Qassem Soleimani on Jan. 3. The Guards don’t leave missing links in
their chain of command – either in Syria or in Iraq. The systematic destruction
by Israeli missiles of Iran’s weapons consignments landing in Syria is likewise
of provisional value. While the IDF is exceptionally effective in spotting and
targeting the incoming arms shipments, a certain quantity must be presumed to be
getting through to destination, else how account for periodic reports on the
rising numbers of precision missiles in the hands of Iran’s proxy, the Lebanese
Hizballah? This question also applies to the Palestinian Hamas in the Gaza
Strip.
IDF commander Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi addressed the Iranian and other threats to
Israel’ security when he presented his new multi-year military program last
week, He pointed out in his preamble that Israel’s armed forces must contend
with “surrounding terrorist armies in Syria, Lebanon, the Gaza Strip and Sinai,
which are not under state control,” as well as Iran, which “currently holds a
stock of 1,000 precision missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv, some of which
have multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV) that are
difficult to intercept.” He stressed too that “Hizballah is advancing in its own
precision rockets project.”Our military sources pose this question. How can
Hizballah make such advances after three years of constant Israeli attacks? And
how come that terrorist groups from the Gaza Strip and Sinai are still allowed
to pose a strategic threat to national security?
The new IDF plan, dubbed “Momentum,” speaks of “strengthening the capabilities
of the ground forces, and taking advantage of aerial range to enable combat
units to attack and destroy a maximum number of targets in as short a time as
possible.” However, say DEBKAfile’s sources, one lesson learned from long
experience of wars is that no-one can predict how a conflict, once started, will
end. None can be counted on to achieve a rapid in-and-out bang-bang victory. In
countering Iran, Israel is more likely to come up against the same obstacles as
Russia encountered in Syria – a lingering, constantly evolving presence that is
hard to pin down. There is nothing innovative about Gen. Kochavi’s decision to
establish an Iran Command headed by a general. IDF generals have filled this
position in the past, the last appointee was Maj. Gen. NItzan Alon, after whom
the position vanished without explanation.
While “Momentum” was approved by the prime minister and defense minister, PM
Binyamin Netanyahu added a rider criticizing the plan as needing a sharper
offensive strategy.
Naftali Bennett returned last week from his first Washington visit and talks in
the Pentagon as defense minister. He reported an agreement for a division of
labor to push back Iranian expansion: the Americans would operate in Iraq, while
the IDF would continue to take on the Iranians in Syria.
No US officials has confirmed or, for that matter, denied the existence of this
deal. Neither has any reference been made any other competent Israeli official
in the caretaker government that is officiating in Jerusalem up until the March
2 general election.
UN: Northwest Syria crisis reaches horrifying new level,
900,000 displaced
AFP/Monday, 17 February 2020
A Russian-backed regime offensive in northwest Syria has displaced 900,000
people since the start of December, and babies are dying of cold because aid
camps are full, the UN said Monday. That figure is 100,000 more than the United
Nations had previously recorded. “The crisis in northwest Syria has reached a
horrifying new level,” said Mark Lowcock, the UN head of humanitarian affairs
and emergency relief. He said the displaced were overwhelmingly women and
children who are “traumatized and forced to sleep outside in freezing
temperatures because camps are full. Mothers burn plastic to keep children warm.
Babies and small children are dying because of the cold.” The Idlib region,
including parts of neighboring Aleppo province, is home to some three million
people, half of them already displaced from other parts of the country. The
offensive that began late last year has caused the biggest single displacement
of people since the conflict began in 2011. The war has killed more than 380,000
people since it erupted almost nine years ago, following the brutal repression
of popular demonstrations demanding regime change. Lowcock warned Monday that
the violence in the northwest was “indiscriminate.”“Health facilities, schools,
residential areas, mosques, and markets have been hit. Schools are suspended,
many health facilities have closed. There is a serious risk of disease
outbreaks. Basic infrastructure is falling apart,” he said in a statement. “We
are now receiving reports that settlements for displaced people are being hit,
resulting in deaths, injuries and further displacement.”He said that a massive
relief operation underway from the Turkish border is has been “overwhelmed. The
equipment and facilities being used by aid workers are being damaged.
Humanitarian workers themselves are being displaced and killed.” US President
Donald Trump on Sunday called for Russia to end its support for the Syrian
regime’s “atrocities” in the Idlib region, the White House said.
Syria’s al-Assad says gains against opposition not yet the
end of conflict
Reuters, Amman/Monday, 17 February 2020
Syrian President Bashar al Assad said on Monday his forces’ rapid recent gains
in their Russian-backed military offensive presaged the eventual defeat of the
nine-year insurgency that sought to oust him from power. But Assad, in an
appearance televised by state media, also cautioned that the conflict was not
yet over. “We know this liberation does not mean the end of the war or the
crushing of all plots or the end of terror or the surrender of the enemy but it
definitely rubs their noses in the dirt,” Assad said. “This is a prelude to
their (opposition forces’) final defeat, sooner or later,” he added. The renewed
Russian-backed offensive, aided by pro-Iranian militias, to regain the last
opposition bastion in the northwest of Syria has allowed Assad’s forces to seize
control of much of the countryside near Aleppo and to push deeper into the
opposition-held and densely populated province of Idlib. “The battle to liberate
Aleppo and Idlib will continue as will the battle to liberate all of Syrian
soil,” Assad said. The offensive has uprooted hundreds of thousands of Syrian
civilians who have fled towards the border with Turkey in the biggest single
displacement of the nine-year-old war.
Trump demands Russia stop supporting Syria regime’s
‘atrocities’
AFP/Monday, 17 February 2020
President Donald Trump has called for Russia to end its support for the Syrian
regime’s “atrocities” as he expressed US concern over violence in the Idlib
region, the White House said Sunday. In a call with Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan, Trump “expressed concern over the violence in Idlib, Syria
and... conveyed the United States’ desire to see an end to Russia’s support for
the Assad regime’s atrocities,” the White House said. President Bashar
al-Assad’s forces made new gains Sunday in their offensive against the last
major rebel bastion in the northwest region of Idlib.
Syria will reopen Aleppo airport to civilian flights
AFP, Damascus/Monday, 17 February 2020
The airport in Syria’s northern hub of Aleppo is to reopen to civilian flights
this week for the first time since the war forced its closure in 2012, state
media said Monday. The SANA agency quoted Transport Minister Ali Hammoud as
saying that “Aleppo International Airport has resumed operations.”
The first flight -- from Damascus to Aleppo -- is scheduled for Wednesday, with
more flights to Cairo and Damascus lined up in following days, it said. The
announcement comes days after Damascus secured the perimeter around Aleppo
during a broad offensive against rebels in the north of the country.
The offensive against the last rebel bastion in Syria has also seen government
troops and allied forces retake significant ground in neighboring Idlib
province. The assault, which has displaced more than 800,000 people in less than
three months, allowed the government to secure the M5 highway connecting Aleppo
to Damascus. Read: Syrian President al-Assad vows to defeat opposition, as
forces gain new ground. Civilian flights had stopped completely at Aleppo
airport when rebels fighting to topple President Bashar al-Assad seized control
of large parts of the city in 2012. Trial flights took off from Aleppo in 2017,
days after the end of a devastating siege that ended rebel groups’ hopes to
taking over Syria’s second city. With its troops engaged on several fronts, the
government took time to secure areas around Aleppo and to reopen trade routes
from the city. Regime forces are still sweeping areas west of Aleppo from which
rebels have chronically fired rockets at the city.
Syrian Kurdish Party Denies Providing Military Support to
Damascus
Cairo, London – Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 February, 2020
The Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) denied on Sunday that it was
providing military support to the Syrian regime in its ongoing offensive against
opposition factions in the northwestern Idlib province. Member of the party’s
foreign relations committee, Dara Mustafa denied that regime forces had launched
their operation from PYD-controled regions in the Afrin countryside. The regime
is using its regions and the Turkish facilitations as stipulated in the Sochi
agreement to attack opposition in Idlib and the Aleppo countryside, he added.
Military cooperation with the Syrian state to resolve the crisis is linked to
the political solution, especially in northern parts of the country, he went on
to say. Until now, the state, with all of its institutions, is being run by one
party, not the people, and therefore, there can be no cooperation or military
assistance to the regime in any operations in Idlib or elsewhere, Mustafa
stressed. He made his remarks in response to claims by opposition media that
said the PYD was backing the regime and its allied militias to attack opposition
positions in the country’s northwest.
Trump, Turkey Call for Russia to Stop Backing Syrian Regime 'Atrocities'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 February, 2020
President Donald Trump has called for Russia to end its support for the Syrian
regime's "atrocities" as he expressed US concern over violence in the Idlib
region, the White House said Sunday. Turkey's foreign minister also pressed his
Russian counterpart over the attacks by Damascus on the last opposition-held
bastion in the country. Backed by Russian air power, Syrian regime leader Bashar
Assad made fresh gains Sunday as he intensified his assault on the holdout
northwestern province of Idlib. In a call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, Trump "expressed concern over the violence in Idlib, Syria and...
conveyed the United States' desire to see an end to Russia's support for the
Assad regime's atrocities." Turkey has 12 observation posts in Idlib as part of
a 2018 deal reached between Ankara and Moscow to prevent a regime offensive, but
Syrian regime forces have pressed ahead regardless. Four of the Turkish posts
are believed to be encircled by Syrian forces, and Ankara has threatened to
attack Damascus if they do not retreat by the end of February. "I stressed that
the attacks in Idlib must stop and it was necessary to establish a lasting
ceasefire that would not be violated," Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu
told journalists at the Munich Security Conference, after he met with Russian
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Opposition supporter Turkey and Damascus ally
Russia have worked closely on Syria in recent years despite being on opposing
sides of the nine-year conflict. A Turkish delegation will head to Moscow on
Monday, after Russian officials visited Ankara last weekend but failed to reach
a concrete deal. War monitor the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights on Sunday
said regime forces "were in control of all the villages and small towns around
Aleppo for the first time since 2012."Regime forces have for weeks been making
gains in northwestern Syria and chipping away at territory held by extremists
and allied opposition factions, focusing their latest operations on the west of
Aleppo province. The Russian-backed offensive has triggered the largest wave of
displacement in Syria's war, with 800,000 people fleeing since it began in
December, the United Nations has said. Backed by Russia, Iran and the Lebanese
movement Hezbollah, Assad's forces now control more than 70 percent of Syria and
the president has repeatedly vowed to retake the entire country.
UN envoy condemns use rifles loaded with birdshot against
Iraqi protesters
Reuters/Tuesday, 18 February 2020
The top United Nations envoy to Iraq condemned on Monday the use of hunting
rifles loaded with birdshot against peaceful protesters in Baghdad and urged the
government to ensure those demonstrating are not harmed. The UN Assistance
Mission for Iraq said it had received credible allegations of protesters being
targeted with hunting rifles, stones and firebombs on the nights of February
14-16, leading to at least 50 injuries. At least 150 people were injured in the
Shia Muslim holy city of Karbala in January alone due to similar tactics, UNAMI
said in a statement. “The continued pattern of the use of excessive force, with
ambiguously identified armed groups and unclear loyalties, is a grave security
concern that must be tackled urgently and decisively. Peaceful protesters should
be protected at all times,” said Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, Special
Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General for Iraq. There was no
immediate comment from Iraqi authorities. Iraq is facing an extraordinary
domestic crisis as nearly 500 people have been killed since October in protests
demanding the ouster of what demonstrators see as a corrupt ruling elite and an
end to foreign interference mainly by Iran and the United States. At least nine
people were wounded on Monday in Baghdad during renewed clashes between
protesters and security forces, police sources said. Two were wounded because of
birdshot and the rest suffered teargas-related injures. Prime Minister-designate
Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi said on Saturday a new government would be formed in the
coming week. Allawi appealed to Iraqis for their support hours after his
appointment by President Barham Salih earlier this month, but protesters have
already rejected him as a stooge of the political elite.
Egypt, Kuwait Reject Threats Against Gulf States
Cairo- Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 February, 2020
The foreign ministers of Egypt and Kuwait voiced their rejection of regional
interventions in the affairs of Arab countries and threats facing Gulf States,
stressing that recent developments should not be allowed to “negatively affect
the security and stability of the Arab Gulf.” Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh
Shoukry met with his Kuwaiti counterpart, Ahmed Nasser Al-Mohammad Al Sabah, on
the sidelines of the 56th Munich Security Conference (MSC) on Sunday. Ahmed
Hafez, the spokesperson for the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, said that Shoukry
emphasized the depth of the strategic relations and the historical and brotherly
ties between the two countries. According to the spokesman’s statement, the two
officials reiterated their firm stance on the Palestinian file and discussed
regional developments, including the situation in Syria and continued tension in
Libya. The two ministers stressed their rejection of regional interventions in
other states’ affairs and threats to the Arab Gulf states, noting that efforts
should be deployed to maintain the security and stability of the Arab Gulf in
light of regional developments. On the sidelines of the Munich conference,
Shoukry also met with the foreign ministers of Denmark, Latvia, and Bulgaria,
the British National Security Adviser, and other top officials.The Egyptian
Foreign minister took the opportunity to underline the need to confront
terrorist financing operations and the importance of holding the concerned
countries accountable, according to a statement by the ministry.
Iranian Researcher Ali Akbar Raefipour: Iran Will Empty Its
Missile Stockpile on Israel’s Head if it Faces Collapse; Environmentalists
Arrested in 2018 Were Spies Searching for Our Secret Missile Cities
The Internet - "Raefipour on YouTube"MEMRI TV/February 17/2020
Iranian researcher Ali Akbar Raefipour, the founder of the Masaf Institute, said
in a lecture that was uploaded to the Internet on January 13, 2020, that Iran's
accurate missiles are on the cutting edge of technology and that Israel is
within range of Iran's missiles. He said that since nobody knows where Iran's
missile cities are, Iran's enemies would be unable to strike them or take
control of them even if Iran collapses. In addition, he said that Iran would
empty its missile stockpile on Israel's head before this could happen. Later in
his address, Raefipour said that the environmentalists who were arrested by the
IRGC in 2018 and accused of espionage were spies who used the pretext of
protecting cheetahs to install GPS trackers on the cheetahs' collars and to
search for Iran's missiles using telemetric devices. Furthermore, he warned that
Americans will die every day as long as the U.S. stays in the Middle East, and
he said that Qasem Soleimani had previously restrained the people who will be
targeting Americans, but that Iran will now not know who these people are. For
more from Raefipour, see MEMRI TV Clip No. 7757.
Ali Akbar Raefipour: "Our missiles are not precision cruise missiles. Cruise
missiles can easily be intercepted. They are like planes. Consider a pilot who
decides to crash with precision into a building... [Cruise missiles] have no
pilot, but they can be intercepted. However, they failed to intercept a single
one of the missiles we used to strike [the American bases]. They are fast and
accurate, which means we are on the cutting edge of technology in the world.
"So they have to take this away from us. Why? Because they know that if they
want to attack, we will strike their bases and kill people.
"[Khamenei] said: 'if you make the slightest mistake, we will raze Tel Aviv and
Haifa to the ground.' Israel is the bottle that contains the life of the Zionist
giant. It is within range of our [missiles]. You may have noticed that we always
declare that our missiles have a range of 2,000 kilometers. This is enough. If
we say more, or if we work to increase the range – we will arouse Europe's
sensitivities and they will say that we can strike Europe, as well. There is no
need for this. The Zionist regime is what's important. We have no problem with
others. That is the danger in our region.
"Let's say Iran collapses, like they imagine in vain. Let's say Tehran and
Mashhad collapse. The missile cities are not located in these places. People
don't even know where they are. Let's say they want to attack and take over
them. Where will they strike? At most, they would be able to take over some
police station. Do you really think that the Iranians will see that everything
is going to Hell and give you these missiles on a silver platter? Certainly,
before [Iran's] collapse, we would empty our stockpile on Israel's head. "Their
plan was to strike our missiles before we place them on the launchers. What
would they have to do to achieve this? They would have to find their locations.
[This is the mission of the] network of environmentalist spies. "They were
looking for the missiles, under the pretext of protecting the cheetahs. "They
used this pretext to install GPS [trackers] on the cheetahs' collars and they
started searching for the missiles using telemetric devices. "America should
know that if it wants to stay in the region, some of its people will be killed
every day – and we won't know who will be striking them. In the past, Hajj Qasem
[Soleimani] had restrained these people, but now, we will not know who they are.
Wherever they find Americans, they will 'take care' of them."
Under 25 percent of people in Tehran plan to vote in Iran’s
elections: Poll
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 17 February 2020
Over 75 percent of Tehran’s population will not vote in the parliamentary
elections scheduled for later this week, according to a poll conducted by the
University of Tehran. Only 24.2 percent of the Iranian capital’s population will
vote in the parliamentary elections on Friday based on the poll, the head of the
University of Tehran's Social Studies and Research Institute Ahmad Naderi said.
Of those surveyed, 93 percent said they are unhappy with the state of things and
the government’s performance, the semi-official Fars news agency cited Naderi as
saying.
Imprisoned Iranian women call for boycott of upcoming
elections in Iran
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 17 February 2020
Iranian female political prisoners have called on their compatriots to boycott
the parliamentary elections scheduled for later this week, saying that those who
vote would be “endorsing the regime and its crimes.” Fearing a low turnout in
the parliamentary elections scheduled for Friday, President Hassan Rouhani urged
Iranians once more on Sunday to vote. “Anyone who goes to the polls will be
complicit in the regime’s killing of the revolutionary youth and would be
endorsing the regime and its crimes,” said 12 female activists, imprisoned in
Tehran’s notorious Evin prison, in a joint statement published on Monday.
Larijani Meets Assad in Damascus,
Travels to Beirut
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 February, 2020
Iranian parliament Speaker Ali Larijani arrived in the Syrian capital Damascus
on Sunday for talks with regime leader Bashar Assad. Assad relayed to his guest
the regime’s determination to “liberate all Syrian territories,” reported the
SANA news agency. For his part, Larijani stressed Iran’s ongoing support for
Syria “in its efforts to eliminate terrorism throughout its territories.” He
said he was confident the Syrian people will be able to liberate all of their
country and restore Syria’s standing in the region. Larijani had arrived in the
city at the head of a parliamentary delegation. He also met with his Syrian
counterpart.
On Sunday night, Larijani and the Iranian delegation arrived in Lebanon for
two-day talks with officials. .
Iran speaker Larijani: Iranian businessmen will reconstruct Syria
Tommy Hilton, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 17 February 2020
Iranian businessmen are willing to be involved in reconstructing Syria, said
Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, speaking alongside his Syrian
counterpart in Damascus on Monday according to Iran’s official IRNA news agency.
Iran has played a key role in supporting the regime of President Bashar al-Assad
in the war in Syria since 2011, with slain Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani
involved in coordinating military campaigns against opposition forces and
civilians that left much of the country in ruins. Larijani described Syria as an
“important pivot of Resistance” and praised Syrian-Iranian relations. Larijani
is a veteran politician in Iran who was previously an Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps commander. He followed his visit to Damascus with a trip to Lebanon
on Monday.
Palestinian Authority Says Ready for Direct Negotiations
With Tel Aviv
Ramallah, Tel Aviv- Kifah Zboun and Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17
February, 2020
The Palestinian Authority is ready to sign a peace agreement within two weeks
only if Israel agrees to establish a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its
capital, announced Presidential spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeineh. “The Israeli
government does not want a peace agreement with us. If there really was an
interest in having real negotiations based on our demands, it could have been
finalized in two weeks,” Abu Rudeineh told Israeli journalists in Ramallah
during a meeting organized by an official Palestinian committee. He indicated
that the US government is pushing Israel and the Palestinians into a permanent
conflict. He asserted that the conflict will be resolved through negotiations
between Palestine and Israel and not through a deal presented by Washington. The
spokesman asserted that President Mahmoud Abbas wants peace, but it is difficult
to find a leader ready to sign the US terms.
“We want the Israeli people to know that we are serious in fighting terrorism,
otherwise, we would have allowed the people to arm,” Abbas said, asserting that
security coordination with Tel Aviv continued. The Authority is now seeking to
launch negotiations with the presence of a multilateral mechanism, with the US
as one of its parties, however it remains a proposal until a major power adopts
it. Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh called on Germany and Europe in general to
exert all efforts to come out with a clear vision on terms of references for the
peace process based on a multilateral mechanism, particularly the resolutions
and standards internationally endorsed.
Shtayyeh was speaking during his meeting with German MP and Chairman of the
Foreign Affairs Committee Norbert Rottgen at the sidelines of the Munich
Security Conference (MSC). The Prime Minister also stressed the importance of
international and European interference to stop Israel from obstructing
elections in Jerusalem and all Palestinian territories. Fatah movement said that
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plan summarizes the reality of the
‘deal of the century’ and confirms it as a plan aimed at extending Israeli
hegemony to include all of historic Palestine, rather than a plan that seeks to
establish peace based on the principles of justice and respect for international
law. Netanyahu announced Sunday that a team began its work to annex areas in the
West Bank, in reference to Israel’s decision to annex the border area of the
Jordan Valley and West Bank settlements.
The committee has started preparing the organizational arrangements, including
sending Israeli members to Washington or US members to Israel. It will have to
arrange the participation of experts, engineers, and all stakeholders because
the discussion is about delineating the borders of Israel for the first time in
its history, according to sources in Israel. In addition, they will discuss the
maps laid out in the original plan published by US President Donald Trump. Other
sources confirmed that the composition of the committee may change after the
Israeli elections, which will take place after two weeks. In the event that a
government headed by Benny Gantz is formed, he will make sure to include the
Israeli army in this committee, knowing that Netanyahu has excluded the army
from it. The announcement came to serve Netanyahu in the elections, as he wanted
to prove that he was serious in carrying out the annexations after settlers
accused him of hesitation. Settlers want the PM to ignore the US
administration’s decision not to announce the annexation, claiming that if
annexation doesn’t occur before the elections, it will never take place.
Netanyahu and White House officials have claimed that postponing the annexation
until after the Israeli elections was due to the need of developing accurate
maps of the borders and the areas that would be annexed in the Jordan Valley,
the Dead Sea, and other parts of the West Bank.
Tebboune Calls On Local Officials to Build ‘New Algeria’
Algiers - Boualem Goumrassa/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 February, 2020
Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has called on executives from all around
the country’s provinces to complete building a “new Algeria” and “stop making
false promises” to citizens. His remarks were made during a meeting in the
capital, Algiers, in which government officials, governors, and a large number
of local elects. “You are all obliged to make changes at the local level, in
light of what Algeria is currently facing,” Tebboune said in his addressing
speech, adding that officials shall also approach citizens to break the barrier
built during the former ruling era between the citizens and the state in order
to restore the lost trust. The President was referring to the 20-year ruling
period of the ousted President, Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Tebboune was a minister
and then prime minister during this period, and for many years. His rivals say
he is “part of Bouteflika’s regime.” He stressed on countering indifference and
the belittling of citizens’ issues, noting that this can only be possible by
relying on competent cadres. Commenting on the ongoing popular uprising despite
electing a new president, Tebboune said the peaceful popular movement in the
country represents people’s will. He said Algerians went to transparent and fair
elections in December and reaffirmed their adherence to radical change. It has
been one year since the popular movement, under the protection of the National
Army, he said, adding that people have been demanding change and rejecting the
adventure that almost led to the collapse of the state and its pillars.
With the term “adventure”, Tebboune was referring to Bouteflika’s running for a
fifth term despite his illness. He asserted that the presidential elections,
which brought him to power “were transparent and reflected people’s will.”
This meeting coincided with the preparations by the popular movement to
commemorate the first anniversary of the protests that toppled Bouteflika’s
regime. A number of demonstrators still confirm in their continuous protests
every Friday and Saturday that nothing has fulfilled their demands, especially
those related to freedoms, the release of detainees, and democratization.
According to protesters, nothing has changed since Bouteflika’s era as media
outlets are still exposed to security harassment and opposition parties are
prevented from meeting in public places.
Israeli Aircraft Flies over Sudan for First Time, Says
Netanyahu
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 17/2020
An Israeli aircraft has flown through Sudanese airspace for the first time, in
what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called another example of warming ties
with formally hostile states. Israel remains technically at war with Sudan,
which supported hardline Islamists -- including, for a period, Al-Qaeda --
during the rule of president Omar al-Bashir. Bashir was ousted by the army last
April following months of mass anti-government demonstrations. "The first
Israeli airplane passed yesterday over the skies of Sudan. This is quite a
change," Netanyahu told American Jewish leaders in Jerusalem on Sunday evening,
without offering further details. Israeli daily Haaretz quoted an Israeli
government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, saying that the plane
was "a private Israeli executive jet". Netanyahu met Sudan's leader Abdel Fattah
al-Burhan two weeks ago for what the Israeli premier's office described as talks
aimed at normalizing ties. A Sudanese government spokesman said later that
Burhan "did not give a promise of normalizing or having diplomatic relations."
Sudan has been part of a decades-old Arab boycott of Israel over its treatment
of the Palestinians and its occupation of Arab lands. In the wake of the Six-Day
War of 1967 in which Israel occupied the Palestinian territories and seized the
Golan Heights from Syria, Arab leaders gathered in Khartoum to announce what
became known as the "three nos": no peace, no recognition and no negotiations
with Israel.
Netanyahu said Sunday that visible signs of a thaw in relations with Sudan and
other Muslim-majority countries were only the tip of the diplomatic iceberg.
"How much is above the surface in an iceberg? It's about 10 percent, he said.
"What you're seeing is about 10 percent. Vast changes are coming." There are
only a handful of "Muslim or Arab countries around the world that we don't have
deepened ties with," the prime minister added. "Sometimes it comes out in the
open." Gulf Arab countries have made a number of recent moves hinting at warmer
ties with the Jewish state, prompted largely by a shared enmity towards Iran.
Netanyahu visited Oman in 2018 and he frequently says the boycott of his country
is ending, despite the absence of a peace deal with the Palestinians. Egypt and
Jordan are so far the only Arab states to have full diplomatic relations with
Israel. Netanyahu was speaking two weeks ahead of a March general election, the
third in 12 months. He has twice failed to form a government after inconclusive
polls.
Sudan information minister says trial in The Hague one
option for Omar al-Bashir
Reuters/Monday, 17 February 2020
Sudan could send former leader Omar al-Bashir and other suspects to The Hague
for trial before the International Criminal Court, but any decision would need
approval from military and civilian rulers, the information minister said on
Monday. “One possibility is that the ICC will come here so they will be
appearing before the ICC in Khartoum, or there will be a hybrid court maybe, or
maybe they are going to transfer them to The Hague...That will be discussed with
the ICC,” Information Minister Faisal Salih told Reuters.
Omani FM Warns Against Military Confrontation in Strait of
Hormuz
Dammam- Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 February, 2020
Oman works for easing of tension in the Arab Gulf region, however, a military
confrontation in the region is not likely to happen now, announced Omani Foreign
Minister Yusuf bin Alawi. The Minister warned that a military confrontation is
more likely to happen in the Strait of Hormuz than any other region in the Gulf,
partially due to the increased number of military vessels. In a dialogue session
dedicated to addressing tension in the region on the sidelines of Munich
Security Conference (MSC), Alawi said, “We keep contacts with the United States
and Iran as part of our relations with the two countries. We feel that it is
possible for the two to engage in dialogue. We work to ease tension in the
region and we do not expect the occurrence of any military confrontation in the
region at present.”The Ministry’s official twitter account quoted Bin Alawi as
saying: “Some have a right to feel anxious about the escalation of tension in
the region,” adding that Iran is a “great country and a neighbour, and if we
regulate our interests, that would give us a feeling of peace.”Alawi pointed out
that the massive presence of military vessels in the Strait might lead to the
occurrence of any mistakes and increase tension. He called upon friends to
consider the present risks to the security of navigation. “There are a lot of
military ships in the Hormuz (area) and our concern is there could be a
mistake,” bin Alawi was quoted by Reuters. The Strait of Hormuz is between Iran
and Oman, with 33 km width at its narrowest point, and is the conduit for some
30 percent of all crude and other oil liquids traded by sea. Friction between
Iran and the West had led several nations to send task forces to guard shipping
there, and Washington has blamed Tehran for attacks on international merchant
vessels in or near the area, something Tehran denies.
Minor Cabinet Reshuffle in Kuwait
Kuwait- Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 February, 2020
Kuwait’s Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah issued Sunday evening a royal
decree for a minor cabinet reshuffle. Under the decree, a new finance minister
was appointed, along with a new minister for electricity and water. It also
stipulated dividing the ministry of oil and electricity to two separate
portfolios.
Finance Minister Mariam Oqeil al-Oqeil in the government formed last December
was appointed as minister of social affairs and the minister of state for
economic affairs. Barrak Ali has replaced her as finance minister, and Khalid
Mohammad al-Fadhel has maintained his post as minister of oil, while Mohammad
Hajji Busheheri was appointed as the new minister of electricity and water. In
other news, Kuwait has announced suspending the activity of three real estate
companies and four money exchange companies. It also requested the approval for
suspending the activity of 18 companies, including six real estate, eight money
exchange companies, and four jewelry companies, for violating the Anti-Money
Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism Law. The country’s Ministry
of Trade and Industry affirmed that its Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the
Financing of Terrorism Department has issued 1,001 precautionary measures in
2019 on companies that violate provisions of the law. In a statement on Sunday,
the Ministry said these measures included sending written warnings to 200 real
estate companies, 77 jewelry companies, 37 money exchange companies, and 13
insurance companies. It also ordered 364 real estate companies, 139 jewelry
companies, 17 money exchange companies, and 13 insurance companies to follow
specific procedures to comply with the law.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on February 17-18/2020
Is Putin the Solution… or the Problem?
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 17/2020
Years ago, the Munich Security Conference (MSC) turned into an indicator of the
level of international concern. Its platforms and side talks witness
contradictory positions, open conflicts, implicit and explicit fears about
ascending and declining roles in the absence of a serious and effective
mechanism to control confrontations and rifts.
The MSC’s 56th session, which concluded on Sunday, was undoubtedly the most
important since the launch of the conference in 1963.
Speeches, discussions, and sideline talks have reflected the amount of concern
haunting many participants. Many are convinced that the specter of a new form of
Cold War is no longer just pessimistic speculation.
Moreover, the continent, in which the conference is being held, looks like a
frightened old ship sailing in the waves of the American “reclusion” and the
Russian “aggressiveness”, without a unified response from the sailors. This is
without forgetting that Britain resigned from the European Union and that the
German chancellor is preparing for retirement, leaving the Old Continent in the
custody of the master of Elysée, who did not hesitate to say that his patience
is running out of the German and European slowdown.
Europe is worried about its role, stability, and model. NATO’s European wing is
no longer fully confident of its ability to take shelter under the US umbrella
in difficult times.
The disagreement between the two shores of the Atlantic is not only the result
of presidential moods. Rather, it has turned into divergence in the vocabulary
and interests and the burden of the alliances.
It is obvious that Donald Trump’s America does not maintain the role of the
guardian of the international system. Despite Pompeo’s reassurances about the
power of the West, the Europeans seem unconvinced that the Atlantic spirit had
not collapsed.
The Munich Conference revealed that the world’s decision-makers are infected
with the viruses of anxiety and doubt, and haunted with interferences and coups
that often take place through proxies.
Many Europeans believe that the Russian leader is at the forefront of those
responsible for the deteriorating conditions in the adult’s club, for many
reasons. In fact, Vladimir Putin has proved to be carrying a great revenge
project against the West, which dismantled the Soviet Union and locked it in
museums. In addition, he annexed Crimea, destabilized Ukraine and revived the
tradition of punishing spies, even if they tried to defend themselves in this
European country or that.
Moreover, he insisted on punishing the colored revolutions, and flexing his
muscles in an area like the Middle East, through military intervention in Syria
and later in Libya.
European rulers feel that their predecessors have failed to understand Putin,
who emerged in the Russian and international scenes at the beginning of this
century.
They thought that the man would be busy preventing the disintegration of the
Russian Federation itself, and then would launch a modernization project,
keeping space with European countries.
These people misunderstood the mysterious man, who was able to show feelings of
friendliness, while concealing his true intentions, pending the opportunity to
strike a painful blow.
At the Munich conference, Putin was physically absent. But the words of Emmanuel
Macron were the greatest evidence of the presence of his shadow. The man was
represented by his Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, who has been living for many
years in the Stalinist building of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
Macron, who had long supported dialogue with Putin, talked about Russia’s
aggression, its adherence to a policy of destabilization, and its use of
communication technology to interfere in elections in other countries’ soil and
to move through proxies.
Putin’s shadow, strongly present in Munich, was also lingering over the rapid
developments in and around Syria’s Idlib.
The rift between Ankara and Moscow escalated to an unprecedented level, while
Turkey sent troops into Syrian territory.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan made explicit accusations against Russia of abandoning its
obligations under the Sochi Agreements and the Astana process. Moscow responded
by accusing the Turkish president of not fulfilling his pledges and by sending
weapons into Syria, part of which ended up in the hands of the terrorist Al-Nusra
Front.
The region witnessed for the first time bloody encounters between the Syrian and
Turkish armies, and Erdogan hinted at targeting the regime of President Bashar
al-Assad.
Shortly after the Russian military intervention in Syria, many parties believed
that Putin, who had saved the regime, would push it to accept a certain
political process, which would lead to a kind of involvement of the moderate
opposition in drafting a new constitution, especially after the decline in the
demand to remove Assad from the balance of power.
There are those who believed that Putin would seek to gradually curb Iranian
influence in Syria, to convince the people of the region and the major countries
that Russia’s Syria is the alternative to Iranian Syria.
Once again, Putin’s policy seemed complicated and mysterious. It was not clear
whether he was willing to curb the Iranian role or whether he was able to do so.
On the other hand, he did not try to prevent Israel from launching raids on
Iranian military bases in Syria, and he established with Benjamin Netanyahu, a
long-term and intensive consultative relationship.
At the same time, he was interested in deepening the distance between Turkey and
the West, introducing Russian missiles to the arsenal of this Atlantic country,
while giving it a green light to intervene militarily on Syrian soil and to
dismantle the Kurdish rope.
Then, it became clear that Turkey wanted more than that, and that Russia had
undeclared intentions. Lavrov was able to summarize this fact, when he said in
Munich: “Russia, Turkey, and Iran don’t have unified goals in Syria.”
In parallel, Putin’s shadow appeared in Libya, and talks emerged about “Russian
mercenaries” and Syrian guerillas classified as “friends of Russia”, who are
opposed to Syrians brought by Erdogan, and who are considered as Turkey’s
friends.
From Munich to Idlib to Libya, Putin’s shadow remained present. But those who
thought that Putin was the solution, today believe that he is the problem, due
to his calculations that keep surprising local, regional, and international
players.
Moqtada al-Sadr and Women
Hazem Saghiehl/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 17/2020
When modern political parties started being established in the Arab world,
traditionalists drew the sword of morality in their faces because members of
political parties are immoral, as demonstrated by the intermingling of men and
women within them.
The insult predictably continued: in those mixed parties, heinous things happen,
including incest.
Moqtada al-Sadr, nearly two thirds of a century later, has brought this
critique, which the old world that lacked strong arguments used to rebuke the
ideas, organizations and institutions of the new world, back to the fore.
However, instead of directing his attacks on political parties, he is targeting
the protests and sit-ins of the Iraqi revolution. He says, along with a few of
his friends through their tweets, that gender intermingling contradicts
morality, religion and national values, and that it is necessarily accompanied
by taking drugs and drinking alcohol. He warns of Iraq’s transformation… into
Chicago!
Of course, Moqtada lacks the intellectual tools of theorists, like Leo Strauss,
who put forward a radical criticism of modernity in which he relied on a wide
range of philosophers that begin with Plato and does not end with Maimonides.
Moqtada’s thoughts, on the other hand, can be identified by referring to two -
and there are many others - stunning examples: once, he attacked youths for
playing football and chasing a ball instead of fencing or riding horses. He
didn’t stop there, going on to say that the west, “especially Israel and the
Jews”, left these games to us in order to distract us as they focused on science
and progress.
Another time, he issued a fatwa - one of the “decisive” fatwas that were meant
to prepare for the battle with the Americans - sanctioning theft and looting
provided that one-fifth of the money is given to him and his institutions.
However, Sadr’s thought can only be dealt with when examined over a long period.
With regard to the ongoing revolution, he called on people to take part in it,
withdrew from it and then returned to participate in it before proceeding to
suppress it more violently than any of those who had supressed it before him.
The same applies to his relationship with Iran, which he supported, then
criticized and attacked and now praises. He currently resides in Iran until
further notice.
As for his relationship with Sunnis, he was heavily involved in the 2006 civil
war and the “death squads” loyal to him would leave Sadr City to go on killing
and kidnapping sprees. However, he later showed solidarity with Sunnis
protesting in Anbar against Nuri al-Maliki’s government. He then went much
further than that, recognizing the legitimacy of the Rashidun, or
Rightly-Guided, Caliphs' mandate and denying that Yazid bin Muawiyah had
murdered Hussein bin Ali.
The same could be said about the many organizations he established, the most
recent of which is the “Blue Caps”. He goes on to disband and even defame some
of them. He does the same with some of his advisors, expelling and insulting
them, then bringing them back to his side.
Still, Moqtada cannot be understood from his thoughts, his turbulent
neurological and psychological make-up or even his love of tumult. The entry
point to understanding him, especially after the outbreak of the Iraqi
revolution, is two-sided:
On the one hand, he is no longer able to maintain the unity of his impoverished
supporters whom the economic crisis impacts more than others. Since the Sunni
and Kurdish “enemy” is almost absent on the political scene, it is impossible to
incite and mobilize against it in order to preserve the cohesion of his popular
base. The moral question is now being used to perform this function.
Women, in the sayyed’s eyes, are weak opponents whom he aspires to rally his
conservative and traditional base against.
On the other hand, the blind loyalty that traditionally linked his base to him
does not apply to Iraq’s youth, especially women. Their sentiments and tastes
have become globalized, and they are demanding rights, equality and
transparency. This heightens his anger and apprehension, especially given the
revolution’s persistence despite his recent withdrawal from it just as it had
persisted following the killing of Soleimani before that.
The bottom line is that, in contrast to the image of the neutral actor he is
trying to project about himself, Sadr sits at the heart of the regime that he
wants to preserve. Without him, neither would Adel Abdel Mahdi have been able to
form his government nor would Mohammed Toufiq Allawi have been appointed to form
a new government. As for Sairoon’s (Moqtada’s parliamentary bloc) alliance with
the Fateh bloc, it keeps the reins of power in assured sectarian hands.
What he wants, at the end of the day, is to ensure that he maintains a share of
the booty from a strong position, while preserving his "right" to seem like a
whiny member of the opposition who loves to play the victim.
The women of Iraq, however, will not be the bridge that he crosses to arrive at
that goal. They are no longer the weak opponent that Sadr imagines them to be.
Some of the bravest of Iraq’s women and girls were killed during the protests.
Some have been assaulted, even stabbed, and, they turned out in large numbers to
protest in Baghdad and provinces in the center and south of the country like
Babel and Dhi Qar. Sadr should be a little cautious when speaking about Iraqi
women.
The Future of Syria: We Talk, While Others Think
Eyad Abu Shakral/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 17/2020
Late last month the INSS (Institute for National Security Studies), which is a
research institute affiliated with the University of Tel Aviv in Israel, hosted
a panel discussion about the future of Syria.
Those present were Israeli expert Dr. Carmit Valensi, Turkish academic Dr. Can
Kasapoglu whose field of interest is security and military matters, the
British-Israeli Middle East expert, Dr. Jonathan Spyer, and Jennifer Cafarella,
the Research Director at the Institute the Study of War (ISW).
The four panelists touched on various interesting issues expected in Syria
during the next ten years.
Valensi said, among other things, that while the Syrian civil war has ended, the
country faces another kind of war. She said that Assad will reclaim 90% of
Syrian territories but he will not be able to truly govern; adding that he will
control the major cities but not the peripheries, which is why he has to
negotiate with other foreign and local players.
The Israeli expert, expected that Assad’s ‘saviors’ may also become his
problems; Although he will retain power during the next decades, and officially
return to the Arab ‘family’, his behavior is not going to change as he will
continue his suppression, violence, and persecution, with even more dependence
on the intelligence apparatus.
Demographically, Valensi said the war brought down Syria’s population from 21
million inhabitants to 17 million; and although during the next decade the
population will creep up again to around 25 million, such increase is not going
to be as a result of the return of the displaced. Only 1% of the 6.5 million of
the displaced will return because the Assad regime does not want the return of
‘disloyal Sunnis’ anyway.
As for the economy, Valensi expects Syria to suffer badly from acute economic
crises, poverty and brain drain; noting that rebuilding Syria would require
between 250 and 300 billion dollars, which is a huge sum that is not going to
come.
Kasapoglu discussed the military dimension in detail. He said that there are two
plans for Syria; one Russian the other Iranian. The Russians want the
reconstruction of the Syrian state, including its armed forces ‘along Russian
lines’ and Russian political-military doctrine; however, the Russian plans face
many problems including paramilitary groups (and their economies), ‘military
districts’, and the privileged Alawite-led units.
The Iranian plan, on the other hand, is totally different. Tehran’s strategy
seeks to make Syria a ‘geographic expression’ with demographic dimensions. The
Iranians desire to change Syria’s fabric, its environment, ‘ecosystem’ and
demographics; which is much more ambitious than the military and political
arrangements that rank high in Moscow’s considerations.
Detailing Iran’s priorities, Spyer said that Iran’s involvement in Syria is
deep, serious, ambitious and multi-faceted, and has to be seen in terms of “five
dimensions of Iranian penetration”.
1- Direct Iranian presence and construction of infrastructure in Syria.
2- The presence of IRGC (The Revolutionary Guards) proxies.
3- Iranian military and built-in structures within the Syrian army.
4- Iran’s formation of local militias such as Hezbollah-Syria.
5- Iran’s efforts to change Syria itself ideologically and demographically.
Indeed, Tehran is applying in Syria the model of the IRGC within Iran; i.e.
changing the whole society. The Iranians, according to Spyer want to stay in
Syria, and are in ‘considerable’ control of its whole southeast; i.e. Al Mayadin
and Albu Kamal districts in Deir Ezzor Province.
The expert then turns to the question as for who would be interested in getting
the Iranians out of Syria, Here, he says that that there are intersecting
interests, and despite having different strategies, the Russians, at least now,
have no interest in pushing the Iranians out. As for Israel, according to Spyer,
it will never be able, through the might of its airforce alone, to destroy the
‘five dimensions’ of Iranian penetration. He, then rounded up by saying that
Russia was now the ‘key arbiter’ in every issue connected to Syria, and its
strategic interests in the eastern Mediterranean will keep it so; while the
Assad regime remains and will continue to be weak and hostage to its protectors.
The final speaker, Cafarella, disagreed strongly with the notion that ‘Assad has
won the war’, and anticipated that Syria will be a war zone throughout the next
decade. She claimed that the Damascus regime control on the map hides its actual
‘fragility’, and that the regime does not have enough resources to defend its
apparent control of the territories it has won. Cafarella, also expected things
to get much worse militarily and economically, pointing out to how bad the
Lebanese economic and financial crisis affected Syria.
As for the Russian role, the American expert argued that the Russians have
limited capabilities in trying to solve Assad’s political and military problems;
claiming that although the Russian airforce has been devastating in destroying
and killing, but Moscow will be ‘limited in its ability’ to help the regime
militarily or financially. Reiterating that the Damascus regime’s control is
weak, Cafarella said that there are ‘other’ players who were capable of
preventing the regime’s hegemony, including ISIS ‘which is down but not out’,
other Islamist groups despite their differences, and Kurdish militias; before
saying that despite the fact that American presence is ‘not sufficient’ to help
US interests, the Damascus regime is in a very bad shape.
Perhaps, the best part in the sum up was what the Israeli expert, Dr. Valensi,
said about how Israel views the Assad regime. She said that Israel decided
against intervening in the early phases of the Syrian war in 2011 – indeed, with
an interest in him to remain in power – for several considerations, including:
1-The devil you know, 2-The Assad regime kept the borders quiet, 3-That Assad
will have enough problems to think of threatening Israel.
I believe it is of utmost importance that we get to understand how serious
political analysts deal with Middle East politics, regardless of their national
identities or political views.
What is at hand is far greater slogans, wishes or pointless arguments, and more
important than being fascinated by stances that we convince ourselves that
others expect us to applaud and support.
I hope we show more awareness and less fascination.
Israel’s new strategy in the war with Iran
With Iran closing the military gap with Israel, IDF launches new ‘Iran Command’
and strategic plan to counter Tehran.
Yochanan Visser/INN/February 17/2020
Last week, two important events regarding Israel’s struggle against Iran
occurred.
The first was the roll-out of the Israel Defense Forces new multi-year strategic
plan dubbed ‘Momentum’, and the second was the announcement that the IDF now has
a special Iran Command that will focus on detecting and analyzing threats posed
by the Islamic Republic.
The plan was drawn up by Aviv Kochavi, the IDF’s Chief of Staff, and approved by
Defense Minister Naftali Bennett. It is now awaiting final approval by the
Israeli cabinet.
A part of the plan has already been carried out and it will significantly
improve the capabilities of the Israel military versus the Iranian axis in the
field of lethality, intelligence, cyber-warfare and, aerial superiority.
“After a thorough and in-depth process with the chief of staff, IDF commanders
and the defense establishment, I endorsed the Momentum Plan that will allow the
IDF to strike at the enemy faster, with greater force, with greater lethality
and thus defeating the enemy and achieving victory,” Bennett said on Thursday.
Gaps between the Israeli military and the Iranian axis are closing rapidly
according to the IDF, while Kochavi said that “the threats are not waiting for
us” and if Israel now not “presses on the gas hard” it will not reach a
situation where it can win a war with Iran and its allies as quickly as is
required.
To achieve the goals of Momentum the IDF will close down a tank battalion and
establish a new rapid movement infantry division which will have units that can
operate deep inside enemy territory.
The existing 900th Kfir Brigade will also be turned into a rapid movement lethal
force and the IDF will purchase much more precision weapons such as attack
drones and missile interception systems.
The Israeli army will also improve the operational capabilities of existing
corps regarding asymmetrical warfare and will improve communication between
these different corps including communication between commanders of ground
forces and pilots of IAF warplanes.
To achieve this better comprehensive communication the Israeli military will use
“a computer program that the military refers to as the “Waze of War,” a play on
the name of a popular navigation app, which will allow commanders to easily see
targets on a map as well as the various methods they could use to strike them —
artillery, ground troops, fighter jets, drones, etc,” according to Israeli
journalist Judah Ari Gross.
Bennett said that the Israeli military will be more lethal, fast and strong and
as we will see it will be necessary because Iran hasn’t changed her behavior
after the assassination of its star-strategist Quds Force commander Qassem
Soleimani who was killed by an American drone on January 3rd this year.
The second event regarding Iran’s growing threat to Israel took place on
Thursday night.
That night between 11 and 12 PM IAF warplanes launched Delilah cruise missiles
at Iranian military facilities near Damascus and killed seven Iranians and
Shiite fighters while destroying new advanced weapons which were delivered by an
Iranian Boeing 747 shortly before the Israeli missile strikes.
Sources inside Syria reported furthermore that Ishmail Ghaani the new commander
of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps arrived on the same
plane in Damascus but apparently he wasn’t among the seven victims who died as a
result of the Israeli strikes.
The same Syrian sources claimed that at least ten Delilah cruise missiles were
launched by the IDF jets from the Golan Heights something that seems to be true
because shortly before the new Israeli attack on the Iranian axis IAF warplanes
were spotted flying over the Sea of Galilee in the direction of the Golan
Heights.
It could be the IAF decided to launch the missiles from the Golan Heights
because of the presence of two Russian Sukhoi SU-35 fighter jets in the skies
above southern Syria at the moment the Israeli air force wanted to strike the
new delivery of Iranian sophisticated weapons to the Quds Force.
Asked about what exactly happened during an interview with the Haifa local radio
station Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu ducked the question and claimed that
maybe “the Belgian air force” had become active in the Syrian fray.
“I don’t know what happened at night. Maybe it was the Belgian air force,”
Netanyahu quipped.
The IAF action against the new weapon delivery to the Quds Force came after
Bennett addressed the growing Iranian threat last Tuesday and warned Iran that
it had “nothing to look for in Syria.”
“For generations, we have been constantly fighting the arms of the Iranian
octopus in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza, and we have not focused enough on the
weakening of Iran itself,” the Israeli DM said adding that Israel should
strangle the head of the Octopus, meaning the regime in Tehran.
“We are in a continuous campaign to weaken the Iranian octopus. On the economic
level, political, intelligence, military, and others,” he explained. “When [an]
octopus’s arms beat you, don’t fight back with only your arms, but strangle the
head. And so it is with Iran,” Bennett explained.
He and Kochavi think Iran will one day try to do what Mohsen Rezaei a former
IRGC commander said on Lebanese TV last week.
“You should have no doubt about this. We would raze Tel Aviv to the ground for
sure. We have been looking for such a pretext,” Rezaei told his interviewer.
Another Iranian commander, Brig. Gen. Amir-Ali Hajizadeh, who heads the aerial
division of the IRGC, again threatened Israel with annihilation and now openly
said that Iran controls a 3000 km-wide Axis of Resistance from Yemen next to the
Red Sea to Lebanon via Iraq and Syria.
“Today we are not only an Iranian Axis of Resistance. Rather, the scope of the
Axis of Resistance extends from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean and from
Yemen’s Ansar Allah (Houthi) movement to Lebanon’s Hezbollah,” according to
Hajizadeh.
Apparently, the Iranians have come to the conclusion that it no longer makes
sense to deny their support for Ansar Allah and their intention to hit Israel
with missiles from Yemenite territory after the US Navy last week seized a giant
weapon transport bound for Ansar Allah in the Red Sea.
The USS Normandy, a Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser, seized 150
‘Dehlavieh’ anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM), which are Iranian-manufactured
copies of the Russian Kornet ATGM and a large number of other missiles and
weapons, according to the US military.
Hezbollah in Lebanon, meanwhile made another provocative move on Saturday and
revealed a giant statue of slain Quds commander Qassem Soleimani who points to
the Israeli border near the village of Maroun al-Ras.
A video of the inauguration of the statue showed Hezbollah terrorists cheering
Allah Hu Akbar as they stood along Hezbollah and Lebanese flags while a
Palestinan Authority flag accompanied the Soleimani statue.
Canada: A Totalitarian State-in-Progress
David Solway/American Thinker/February 17/2020
To describe Canada as a totalitarian state-in-progress sounds like a gross and
indeed absurd exaggeration. Yet many premonitory signs are present. In the words
of political philosopher William Gairdner, author of The Book of Absolutes, The
Great Divide and The Trouble with Canada, Canada “has just crossed the red line
between soft-socialism and soft-totalitarianism.”
Gairdner has assembled a virtual mountain of evidence for his claim: Bill C-25
seeking to impose “diversity” on all corporations; financial penalties against
organizations that do not comply with government programs; a teeming brigade of
government surveillance “Inspectors,” that is, spies — wage spies, speech spies,
feminist spies, pay-equity spies, Human Rights spies; paralegal bodies known as
Human Rights Tribunals with the power to levy crippling fines, bankrupt families
and shut down businesses, to impose prison time for contempt of court, and to
compel conformity via “re-education.”
The list goes on. Bill C-16 prohibits discrimination on the basis of gender
identity and gender expression, which sounds unexceptionable except for the
obvious fact that “discrimination” is in the eye of the offended beholder and
the government enforcer. The bill effectively mandates that citizens must
address others by their preferred pronouns and transgender fantasies — or else!
It’s “zir,” “ze,” “zem” or “zeir” or you’re done for. It’s Emily, not Brian, or
your job’s in peril. The Ontario Human Rights Code stipulates that “refusing to
refer to a trans person by their chosen name and a personal pronoun that matches
their gender identity… will likely be discrimination” in social areas like
employment, housing, education and so on. As Queen’s University law professor
Bruce Pardy writes, “human rights have become a weapon to normalize social
justice values and delegitimize competing beliefs.” There are other laws on the
books, bills such as C-59, C-75 and C-76 that reduce and even criminalize
freedom of expression, infringe on privacy rights, compromise due process and
render government transparency a thing of the past.
The assault against normalcy, common sense, civil rights and charter freedoms
gives no indication of relenting. Bill S-202, an act to amend the Criminal Code
now before Parliament, would outlaw what the government misleadingly calls
“Conversion Therapy,” that is, by criminalizing parents, lawyers, physicians and
church leaders who object to state-compelled sex-reassignment procedures, the
bill would effectively prevent minor children undergoing forced transgender
operations, surgical and hormonal, from receiving the help they need. “This
whole agenda to sterilize and mutilate children,” write the editors of
Action4Canada “is pure evil and in violation of…the Charter of Rights and
Freedoms, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, The International Covenant
on Civil and Political Rights, as well as a physician’s ethical commitment
promising to ‘First, do no harm.’”
In an article for the National Post, columnist Rex Murphy, one of that rare
breed of truth-telling Canadian journalists, writes: “This government, or the
agencies of this government, are establishing a pattern of misusing the
authority of the law.” Among other instances of official malfeasance, Murphy
skewers the Liberal government’s fraudulent case against Rebel News founder Ezra
Levant for publishing and promoting a book critical of Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau, The Librano$, during the October 2019 election without “registering”
the book with a government agency. “Can anybody name any other book, ever,”
Murphy asks, “which has been the subject of an investigation by the Commissioner
of Canada elections?…Will PEN Canada, defender of authors and journalists, take
up the banner for Mr. Levant?” Rhetorical questions, obviously.
As of this writing, new developments have come to the fore. Not satisfied with
relying on the misapplication of electoral law or conducting dodgy prosecutorial
attacks on individuals whom the party wishes to intimidate, silence or arrest,
Trudeau’s Liberals are considering a motion requiring all news content creators
to procure a government licence for approved content, thus controlling public
access to information. “These are autocrats that Canada has empowered,” writes
spokesman for Canadians for Language Fairness Gordon Miller; “Now we will pay
the price.” (personal communication.)
Not content with such despotic measures, the CRTC (Canadian Radio-Television and
Telecommunications Commission) proposes to identify news sites that are
“accurate, trusted, and reliable” with the intent to enhance the ‘diversity of
voices.’” Truth be told, there are precious few “accurate, trusted and reliable”
news sites in Canada. As in the U.S., they are almost all parabellum outfits,
taking dead aim at honest reporting. Moreover, we know that emphasizing
“diversity of voices” is equivalent to the imposition of the grievance-driven
identity-group and social justice model on public broadcasting while
constraining factual reporting and bridling the dissemination of genuine news.
It is, in effect, tantamount to a government monopoly on information which, as
Conservative shadow minister for industry and economic development Michele
Rempel Garner rightly warns, “puts us in league with countries that control the
media.”
That the warning comes from a Conservative MP who, like the majority of her
colleagues, has embraced many of the Liberals’ woke policies and progressivist
attitudes, shows how far gone we are. Indeed, the contagion has spread
throughout the House. All of Canada’s political parties signed on to Bill C-76,
which received Royal assent in December 2018 and which imposes further
restrictions on third party speech during extended election periods. This is to
be expected. Every political party steers to the Left including, as noted, the
Conservatives who are essentially Liberal Lite. Trudeau is simply the most
visible embodiment and effective bellwether of the political virus infecting the
country.
The treatment of Omar Khadr is another case in point. A Canadian citizen and
youngest son of an Al-Qaeda terrorist family who was detained at Guantanamo Bay
for “violations of the laws of war” in Afghanistan, including killing American
combat medic Christopher Speer, Khadr was repatriated to Canada and awarded a
$10.5 million compensation settlement by Trudeau. Although the issue is clouded
and precise information is difficult to find, it appears likely that he remains
on a no-fly list. No matter, Khadr recently flew first class to keynote a panel
discussion at Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia.
The beleaguered Levant confronted him with a series of questions — was he aware
of a no-fly list? Did he donate a portion of his cash windfall to the widow of
Dr. Speer? (Levant did not mention that Khadr has purchased a strip mall in
Edmonton for a substantial portion of his payout.) Khadr, of course, is regarded
as a Canadian hero who suffered at the hands of the dastardly Americans while
Levant is nothing but a troublemaking gadfly, so it was no surprise to see
Levant grilled by four policemen and unceremoniously escorted from the airport.
They got the wrong guy, as the expression has it, but that’s how things happen
in a nascent police state.
Canadian combat veteran Jeremy MacKenzie who attended the event — or tried to —
was livid with righteous fury, recalling his buddies who gave their lives in
Afghanistan fighting the Taliban and the likes of the extended Khadr family.
Responding to Trudeau’s excuse in reference to military veterans’ pensions that
veterans “are asking for more than the federal government can afford,” MacKenzie
fumes that notwithstanding, “we will make Omar Khadr, the Taliban terrorist, a
multi-millionaire.” Canada, he proclaims, “is not the country that I signed up
to fight for and it is certainly not the country that those men and women died
for.” Like Levant, he was escorted from the premises — an analogy for the
dwindling remnant of patriotic Canadians being escorted from their country.
These are developments that should not be dismissed as mere desultory details.
They add up. As Gairdner points out, soft totalitarianism is a considerable way
from hard totalitarianism. “But it all starts somewhere, and this week, the road
got shorter.” There is a sort of political Martini curve at work as Canada races
to keep up with the Leftist conformity of the modern international elite.
Regrettably, Canada has no Donald Trump or Viktor Orban or Boris Johnson on the
current political horizon. Nor is there a term limit on the office of Prime
Minister, which suggests that a socialist troll and ideological jamoke like
Justin Trudeau may be in power for years to come. The one Party that promised a
return to social, political and fiscal sanity, Maxime Bernier’s The People’s
Party of Canada, was deep-sixed by the media and wiped out at the polls. That
tells us all we need to know.
To say it can’t happen here — the title of Sinclair Lewis’ 1935 novel, though he
targeted the wrong constituency — is an expression of overweening confidence and
lack of historical awareness. One does not have to think back to the demise of
the Weimar Republic in Germany. A mere glance at the European Union’s unelected,
bureaucratic authoritarianism, or a recognition of what the Democrat Party is
demonstrably planning for the United States, should awaken us to the danger. To
be awakened, we might remark, is the opposite of being woke. Canada stands as a
vivid illustration of what would be in store for the U.S. under a Democrat
administration.
It can happen here, and it is happening right now, right here, in Canada.
*David Solway’s latest book is Notes from a Derelict Culture, Black House
Publishing, 2019, London. A CD of his original songs, Partial to Cain, appeared
in 2019.
Abbas’ UN speech and the breakdown of Palestinian politics
Ramzy Baroud/Arab News/February 17/2020
A precious moment has been squandered; Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas had
the chance to right a historical wrong, by reinstating Palestinian national
priorities at the UN Security Council on Feb. 11, through a political discourse
that is completely independent of Washington and its allies.
For a long time, Abbas has been a hostage to the very language that designated
him and his Palestinian Authority (PA) as moderates in the eyes of Israel and
the West.
Despite the Palestinian leader’s outward rejection of the US “Deal of the
Century” - which practically rendered Palestinian national aspirations null and
void - Abbas is keen to maintain his “moderate” credentials for as long as
possible.
He has given many speeches at the UN but, on just about every occasion, has
failed to impress Palestinians. This time, however, things were meant to be
different.
Not only did Washington disown Abbas and his authority, it also scrapped its own
political discourse on peace and the two-state solution altogether. Moreover, US
President Donald Trump’s administration has now officially given its blessing to
Israel to annex nearly a third of the West Bank, taking Jerusalem off the table
and discarding the right of return for Palestinian refugees.
Instead of directly meeting with leaders of the various Palestinian political
parties and taking tangible steps to reactivate dormant but central political
institutions such as the Palestinian National Council (PNC) and the Palestine
Liberation Organization (PLO), Abbas preferred to meet with former Israeli
right-wing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, in New York, and to carry on
regurgitating his commitment to a bygone era.
In his UN speech, Abbas said nothing new which, in this instance, was worse than
not saying anything at all.
“This is the outcome of the project that has been introduced to us,” Abbas said,
while holding a map of what a Palestinian state would look like under Trump’s
deal. “And this is the state that they are giving to us,” he added, referring to
that future state as a “Swiss cheese,” meaning it would be fragmented by Jewish
settlements, bypass-roads and Israeli military zones.
Even the term Swiss cheese, which was reported in some media as if a new phrase
in this ever-redundant discourse, is actually an old coinage that has been
referenced repeatedly by the Palestinian leadership itself, starting with the
onset of the so-called peace process a quarter of a century ago.
Abbas labored to appear exceptionally resolute as he emphasized certain words,
like when he equated the Israeli occupation with the system of apartheid. His
delivery, however, appeared unconvincing, lacking and, at times, pointless.
Abbas spoke of his great “surprise” when Washington declared Jerusalem as
Israel’s undivided capital, subsequently relocating its embassy to the occupied
city, as if the writing was not already on the wall and that, in fact, the
embassy move was one of Trump’s main pledges to Israel even before his
inauguration in January 2017.
“And then they cut off financial aid that was given to us,” Abbas said in a
lamenting voice with reference to the US decision to withhold its aid to the PA
in August 2018. “$840 million are held from us,” he said. “I don’t know who is
giving Trump such horrid advice. Trump is not like this. Trump that I know is
not like this,” Abbas exclaimed in a strange interjection as if to send a
message to the Trump administration that the PA still had faith in the American
president’s judgement.
“I would like to remind everyone that we have participated in the Madrid peace
conference, and the Washington negotiations and the Oslo agreement and the
Annapolis summit on the basis of international law,” Abbas pointed out,
signaling that he remained committed to the very political agenda that reaped
the Palestinian people no political rewards whatsoever.
Abbas then went on to paint an imagined reality, where his authority was
supposedly building the “national institutions of a law-abiding, modern and
democratic state that is constructed on the basis of international values; one
that is predicated on transparency, accountability and fighting corruption.
“Yes,” he emphasized, looking at his audience with theatrical seriousness, “we
are one of the most important countries (in the world) that is fighting
corruption.”
He then called on the Security Council to send a commission to investigate
allegations of corruption within the PA, a bewildering and unnecessary
invitation, considering that it is the Palestinian leadership that should be
making demands on the international community to help enforce international law
and end the Israeli occupation.
It went on like this, as Abbas vacillated between reading pre-written remarks
that introduced no new ideas or strategies and unnecessary rants that reflected
the PA’s political bankruptcy and Abbas’ own lack of imagination.
Abbas, of course, made sure to offer his habitual condemnation of Palestinian
“terrorism” by promising that Palestinians would not “resort to violence and
terrorism regardless of the act of aggression against us.” He assured his
audience that his authority believed in “peace and fighting violence.” Without
elaborating, Abbas declared his intention of continuing on the path of “popular
and peaceful resistance,” which, in fact, does not exist in any shape or form.
In his UN speech, Abbas said nothing new which, in this instance, was worse than
not saying anything at all.
This time around, Abbas’ speech at the UN was particularly inappropriate.
Indeed, it was a failure in every possible way. The least the Palestinian leader
could have done would have been to articulate a powerful and collective
Palestinian political discourse. Instead, his statement was merely a sad homage
to his own legacy, one that is riddled with disappointments and ineptitude.
Expectedly, Abbas returned to Ramallah to greet his cheering supporters once
more, who are always ready and waiting to raise posters of the ageing leader, as
if his UN speech had succeeded in fundamentally shifting international political
momentum in favor of Palestinians. It has to be said that the real danger in the
“Deal of the Century” is not the actual stipulations of the sinister plan, but
the fact that the Palestinian leadership is likely to find a way to co-exist
with it, at the expense of the oppressed Palestinian people, as long as donors’
money continues to flow and Abbas continues to call himself a president.
*Ramzy Baroud is a journalist, author and editor of The Palestine Chronicle. His
latest book is “The Last Earth: A Palestinian Story” (Pluto Press, London).
Baroud has a Ph.D. in Palestine studies from the University of Exeter. Twitter:
@RamzyBaroud
Obstacles to displaced Syrians returning home pose
challenge for recovery
Kerry Boyd Anderson/Arab News/February 17/2020
The fighting in Idlib has displaced 800,000 people since December, with more
than 100,000 in the last week alone. The International Rescue Committee has
called it “the largest civilian displacement since the war started nine long
years ago.” This says a lot, since the Syrian civil war already has created at
least 5.6 million refugees and 6.6 internally displaced — totaling more than
half the pre-war population.
With neighboring countries hosting thousands to millions of refugees, there is
growing pressure for them to return to Syria. Within Syria, many displaced
Syrians face extreme difficulties and long for a return to normality. Over the
last few years, thousands of Syrian refugees have voluntarily returned to their
country, though this represents a very small minority of the overall refugee
population. Smaller numbers have been forcibly returned from Turkey and Lebanon,
according to media and human rights groups’ reports. The experiences of these
returnees are often not encouraging to others who might consider going home, and
there are enormous obstacles in the way of Syrians who may wish to return to
their former homes.
The most fundamental challenge is a lack of basic security. This stems from two
trends: Ongoing conflict and the Assad regime’s reprisals. As events in the last
week demonstrated, with continued fighting in Idlib and an unusual case of
direct conflict between US troops and Assad loyalists near Qamishli, the war is
not over. Even in areas that now are relatively calm, Syrians have expressed
concerns that Daesh could re-emerge or that the types of grievances that led to
the war remain unaddressed and could re-ignite conflict.
In regime-controlled areas, returnees — or anyone associated with opposition to
Assad — are at risk of detention, often subject to torture and even death.
Multiple studies of Syrian refugees and media reports have made it clear that
security is most refugees’ primary concern and that many cannot imagine
returning to live under the same government that has killed many thousands of
civilians and often targeted their communities. This is a widespread problem,
preventing refugees in many countries from considering return and hampering
Turkey’s efforts to create a “safe zone” in northeastern Syria. Many Syrians do
not trust the Assad regime or any other actors involved in the conflict to
ensure their safety.
Another major obstacle is Syria’s housing crisis. The war has caused extensive
damage to residences and infrastructure throughout the country. Beyond
destruction due to fighting, many areas experienced looting that badly damaged
homes, with robbers sometimes going so far as to strip wire to sell the copper.
The lack of housing combined with internal displacements that have led to
crowding in many areas has helped to create a competitive, expensive and often
corrupt rental and housing market. In some cases, returnees find other displaced
Syrians living in their former homes and have limited options for reclaiming
their property.
The Syrian authorities have exacerbated the housing crisis through several
means, including ones designed to make it difficult for members of communities
that opposed the regime to return to their former homes. While it is
understandable that a government would want to use extensive damage as an
opportunity to create new and improved development, the Syrian government has
gone far beyond that, including demolishing undamaged properties; the motivation
ranges from profiteering to punishing anti-regime communities to ensuring regime
control over strategic areas in the future. The government has passed laws that
make it more difficult for people to reclaim properties. In some cases, the
regime has refused permits for repairs to communities that were seen as opposing
Assad. The authorities have allowed — and sometimes participated in — networks
of fraud and scams designed to profit off of property owners who are displaced
or who lack regime connections. Many of these policies appear designed to
reshape Syria’s future demographics in ways that consolidate the regime’s
control.
Related to the housing crisis is the widespread destruction of infrastructure
and the decline in available services. In many areas, hospitals and medical
facilities particularly were targeted in the war. Returnees often would face a
lack of basic services.
Insufficient jobs and economic opportunities are other obstacles. Many refugees
and displaced people face very difficult economic circumstances and might be
willing to return home if there was sufficient security. However, the
combination of security concerns and economic difficulties are major factors
discouraging return. In regime-controlled areas, returnees — or anyone
associated with opposition to Assad — are at risk of detention, often subject to
torture and even death.
Other obstacles include reported increases in crime, corruption and extortion
within a traumatized populace. Many Syrians have noted the deep distrust that
now runs throughout Syrian society. If the conflict had ended with some form of
transition government that represented different parts of society and sought
reconciliation, there would be some hope for creating security and beginning to
restore trust. However, since the regime has mostly won the war through a
combination of brutality and external alliances, and appears to have little
interest in reconciliation, it is difficult to see how the society can move
beyond deep divisions. Given the scale of displacement, Syria’s future
demographics will be fundamentally different. Many refugees will never return
home, as past refugee crises in other parts of the world have demonstrated.
Society may be increasingly segmented by class and sect and very likely will be
more urbanized. Unfortunately, these trends are unlikely to lay a foundation for
a stable future Syria.
*Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 16
years' experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and
Middle East political and business risk. Her previous positions include deputy
director for advisory with Oxford Analytica and managing editor of Arms Control
Today. Twitter: @KBAresearch
Why oil rebounded last week despite coronavirus doom
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/February 17/2020
Last week proved once more that markets often react on sentiment and perceived
outlook rather than to cold, hard facts.
The coronavirus outbreak severely impacted oil demand, a situation underlined by
forecasts released last week by both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The IEA downgraded its demand predictions for this year by 365,000 barrels per
day (bpd) to 825,000 bpd, the lowest since 2011. It even expected oil demand to
fall by 435,000 bpd during the first quarter of 2020.
OPEC’s downward revisions were less hefty. The organization predicted oil demand
to grow by 990,000 bpd in 2020, which included a downward revision of 230,000
bpd.
The two reports were published amidst negative news of the coronavirus. Its
impact on Chinese oil demand has been severe, reducing the run rates of
refineries by as much as 3 million bpd. The impact of the virus will take 1.1
million bpd out of the market during the first quarter of this year and 344,000
bpd during the second in China – all according to the IEA.
The situation has become so grave that several suppliers are willing to discount
the oil price for their eastbound cargo in order to retain market share.
According to S&P Global, this mainly affected Brazil, Russia and Angola.
These numbers make sense when looking at the impact the spread of coronavirus
has had on global supply chains, especially in the automotive and technology
sectors. Hyundai closed factories in Korea, and Chrysler Fiat in Serbia. General
Motors is worried about its production lines in the US and several factories in
the UK have shortened their hours due to a lack of parts.
Apple has been particularly impacted, with several of its factories in China
manufacturing parts or assembling iPhones having been slow to reopen after the
lunar new year — if at all.
The outlook on the global economy is bleak. In January the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded global economic growth for 2020 by 0.1 percent to
3.3 percent. That was before worries about the coronavirus emerged.
On Sunday the IMF’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, floated a further
reduction in the growth rate by 0.1 – 0.2 percentage points. At the same time,
she warned about making hasty predictions, because too little was known at this
point about how the virus would develop.
Depending how the economic impact of the coronavirus unfolds, the 600,000 bpd
might well do the trick and balance markets.
The impact of the virus is twofold, one lasting and the other one resulting in a
rebound after the worst is over. The former is the loss in consumption, travel
and tourism during the Chinese lunar new year, constituting a one-time hit,
which cannot be recovered.
The second effect is the loss of production in the global supply chain. Industry
will, over time, make up for the backlog that creates. Down the line it will
probably even result in greater-than-expected demand for oil – the premier fuel
for transport – because shipments will resume, and factories will need to
compensate for the backlog.
So why then was there a hike in the oil price while the short-term outlook was
so bleak? The development ran against what was seen in most other commodities,
especially copper. Brent was up by more than $3.60 per barrel or close to 7
percent on the week. The price has dropped a little bit since then, reaching
$57.39 per barrel for Brent in early Asian trading on Monday.
The answer is simple. While the short-term outlook is negative, analysts and
traders pin great hopes on the upcoming meeting of OPEC+, a grouping of the OPEC
member countries and their 10 allies lead by Russia.
Ministers will gather in Vienna on March 5 and 6 and most analysts expect them
to follow the recommendations of a technical meeting held earlier this month,
which stipulated that the grouping should cut production by an additional
600,000 bpd. That would go beyond the 1.7 million bpd by which OPEC+ reduced
production in December of last year. The full 2.3 million bpd should remain off
the market until June, when another meeting is scheduled.
Depending how the economic impact of the coronavirus unfolds, the 600,000 bpd
might well do the trick and balance markets. There are, however, other factors
that could influence developments.
For one, political and internal tensions in Libya have grinded to a halt the
country’s oil exports. If the Berlin process achieves its desired results later
this quarter, Libyan production, and with it exports, could resume adding to the
supply glut.
Secondly, analysts will observe how OPEC+ interacts in March. Saudi Arabia
wanted to bring the March meeting forward, but Russia denied the urgency. Russia
has so far, many times talked tough ahead of OPEC+ meetings. In the end Moscow
relented and consented to play its part in doing what was required to balance
markets.
The odds are that the March meeting will be no different and that is clearly
what traders anticipate. Should that not be the case, expect the price of oil to
slide after March 6.
*Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macroeconomist and energy expert.
Twitter: @MeyerResources
Peace deal with the Taliban becoming a reality
Ajmal Shams/Arab News/February 17/2020
After months of negotiations, ups and downs and frustrations, the US and the
Taliban have finally agreed on the reduction of violence to eventually pave the
way for a formal peace agreement between the two sides.
If everything goes well, the peace deal will lead to the end of almost 18 years
of US war in Afghanistan and nearly four decades of conflict in the country.
American President Donald Trump has already indicated that the US is very close
to reaching a deal with the Taliban. However, the story does not end there. Any
possible agreement would have to be followed by an intra-Afghan dialogue in
which the Taliban enters into negotiations with the Afghan government and
representatives of the Afghan political intelligentsia to negotiate the terms of
the political settlement.
It has not yet been confirmed when the partial truce leading to the reduction of
violence by both sides will begin. However, there is a high level of optimism
that things may be moving quite rapidly.
Despite the fact that there are some concerns within the Afghan government about
a clear definition of the reduction of violence, the recent developments are
highly significant, having raised the hopes for an enduring peace in the
war-ravaged country after decades of bloody conflict that has taken the lives of
almost 2 million Afghans.
The US has also lost more than 2,000 of its soldiers and servicemen during the
past 18 years of war against terrorism, while spending billions of dollars on
the military campaign and reconstruction.
Just days before the Munich Security Conference, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani
tweeted that he was called by the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo informing
him about notable progress in the talks between the Americans and the Taliban
about significant reduction in violence.
The prospective US-Taliban deal will pave the way for the gradual withdrawal of
US troops from Afghanistan, one of Trump’s major foreign policy objectives and a
move, if it materializes, that will boost his chances of re-election in the 2020
presidential election. Trump has repeatedly promised the American people a
military pullout from Afghanistan and a halt to endless wars, reiterating these
pledges in his recent State of the Union address.
Afghans are both optimistic and concerned about the reality of the potential
peace deal.
Just a about a week ago, Kabul was witness to a horrific suicide attack that
claimed the lives of two civilians and four military personnel. The much talked
about reduction in violence must mean a genuine decline in hostilities to allow
confidence building between the two warring parties. If fully complied with and
respected, there would be high optimism for the anticipated peace agreement to
be inked leading to an intra-Afghan dialogue and eventual political settlement.
It is also extremely important for the Afghan government to build national
consensus about the roadmap for peace in the country. Although, there have been
efforts in the recent past to build such consensus, the attempts have been
sporadic and fragmented.
There is a need for a broad-based dialogue among all the political forces and a
wide spectrum of Afghan society in the country to bring the hoped-for peace in
Afghanistan.
Clearly, it is the government that must take the lead in this regard. It has
already established a state ministry of peace for all related matters including
coordinating efforts for potential negotiations with the Taliban. Yet, the
ministry is an organ of the government and will have limited legitimacy without
taking all the major political parties and representatives of the broader Afghan
society on board in any peace initiative.
Despite the fact that there are some concerns within the Afghan government about
a clear definition of the reduction of violence, the recent developments are
highly significant, having raised the hopes for an enduring peace.
One thing is for sure though; all Afghans regardless of political, ethnic and
sectarian affiliation put enduring peace in Afghanistan above everything else.
Afghanistan’s ambitious agenda for development and prosperity cannot be
accomplished without lasting and sustainable peace in the country. Every Afghan
expects the government to set peace-making its top priority through genuine
efforts aimed at reaching out to the wider Afghan public as well as regional and
international partners. Recent developments have raised hopes that peace may be
closer than ever before. Let us make it a reality.
*Ajmal Shams is president of the Afghanistan Social Democratic Party. He was a
deputy minister in the national unity government and served as a policy adviser
to Ashraf Ghani before his presidential bid. Twitter: @ajmshams
One step closer toward achieving compliance with
international law
Chris Doyle/Arab News/February 17/2020
Almost 53 years into the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, the
UN, after resisting considerable bullying, has finally published a list of those
companies reportedly doing business with illegal Israeli settlements. Such a
database may not have seen the light of day but for the diplomatic reaction to
the publication of the Trump plan in January, as many states wanted to send a
message of opposition. This is then largely a response to that plan, which
envisages Israeli annexation of much of the West Bank including East Jerusalem.
The UN Human Rights Council published a list of 112 companies allegedly involved
in business in settlements, 18 of which were international, the rest Israeli.
Some of them are major brand names such as TripAdvisor, Airbnb, Booking.com,
Motorola, Expedia and Opodo. Amazon, for example, started business in Israel in
November and offers free shipping to settlements if listed as Israel.
Palestinians in the West Bank can receive the same terms but only if they state
they live in Israel. Palestinian postal services are hampered by the occupation
and, unlike settlers, they typically have to travel miles to get their post.
Back in 2018, Airbnb took the decision following extensive campaigning to cease
operations in the illegal settlements but then rescinded this in 2019 under
massive counterpressure. The company did at least declare it would not make any
profits from settlements but donate them to charitable activities.
Inaction has been the hallmark of the international community’s response over
decades yet even this mini-step toward accountability has met with the usual
cackles of outrage from the anti-Arab voices.
To be clear, the transfer of civilian population into or out of occupied
territory is illegal. It is a violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949,
and a war crime under the Rome Statute. Israel does both, by implanting its own
citizens into occupied territory, and by imprisoning Palestinians, including
children, inside Israel. All of this is reinforced by UN Security Council
Resolutions and the 2004 ruling of the International Court of Justice. In legal
terms, it is as much of a slam dunk as you get.
It is illegal but immoral too. The rationale for such a prohibition is clear. It
is to prevent ethnic cleansing and colonization. It is to protect the victims of
aggression. It is no coincidence that such prohibitions were introduced so soon
after World War II.
Rhetorically the world was united until 2017. In December 2016, the UN Security
Council passed Resolution 2334 reconfirming this consensus. It also emphasizes
the obligation on states to differentiate in their dealings between the state of
Israel and the territories it occupied in 1967.
Yet for all this, a sum total of nothing has been done. Israeli settlers number
an eye-watering 610,000 in more than 150 settlements and 100 outposts scattered
across the West Bank. Settlers are represented at the very highest levels of the
Israeli government, judiciary and business world. In effect the settlements were
de facto annexed to Israel years ago.
One could argue that if state actors have done so little then why should
international companies be forced to do more than governments. Trade with
settlements should be banned. That is the logic of declaring them illegal.
However, the UN did not call for a boycott nor did it express a view as to
whether the companies were violating international law. This database does not
mean companies have to stop business with settlements but consumers can
determine if they wish to continue to use their services. Companies will have to
consider whether they wish to continue to aid in the commission of war crimes.
All of this is not specific to Israel. The UN Human Rights Commission as part of
its human rights due diligence has, for example, warned companies about how to
avoid assisting in the genocide of the Rohingya in Myanmar. It did the same in
the past for companies involved in conflicts in South Africa and the Congo. It
released a list last August of 59 companies that have links to the Myanmarese
army. Companies should not be investing in enterprises that prolong and abet any
military occupation anywhere. This is a vital principal of international law
that protects us all.
Anti-Arab coverage referred to it as a “black list,” as if producing the list
was the issue, not the systematic violation of international law and how
companies profited from them. Many senior Israelis reacted in the usual
off-the-chart fashion, ranging from anti-Semitism, to “economic terror attack”
to President Rivlin declaring it to be a “shameful initiative reminiscent of
dark periods in our history.” Upholding international law and justice is now
being compared implicitly to the Holocaust and pogroms.
The Trump administration was swiftly out of the blocks too. Secretary of State
Mike Pompeo said: “The United States has long opposed the creation or release of
this database. Its publication only confirms the unrelenting anti-Israel bias so
prevalent at the United Nations . . . Attempts to isolate Israel run counter to
all of our efforts to build conditions conducive to Israeli-Palestinian
negotiations that lead to a comprehensive and enduring peace.”
Inaction has been the hallmark of the international community’s response over
decades yet even this mini-step toward accountability has met with the usual
cackles of outrage from the anti-Arab voices.
Alarmingly, it is not just the US. Many leading European states including
Germany and the UK, who unlike the US still consider the settlements to be
illegal, worked hard to delay the publication of the database.
Ultimately the publication of this limited database is a miserly step toward
achieving compliance with international law. If the international community will
not even stand together on this minimal step, what chance will there be to stop
Israeli expansionists from fulfilling their annexationist dreams in the next few
months? Others with territorial ambitions will be licking their lips as the
clear lesson is that international law simply does not matter anymore.
*Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British
Understanding. Twitter: @Doylech