LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
February 14/19

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
God gave them a sluggish spirit, eyes that would not see and ears that would not hear, down to this very day
Letter to the Romans 11/01-12: “I ask, then, has God rejected his people? By no means! I myself am an Israelite, a descendant of Abraham, a member of the tribe of Benjamin. God has not rejected his people whom he foreknew. Do you not know what the scripture says of Elijah, how he pleads with God against Israel? ‘Lord, they have killed your prophets, they have demolished your altars; I alone am left, and they are seeking my life.’ But what is the divine reply to him? ‘I have kept for myself seven thousand who have not bowed the knee to Baal.’ So too at the present time there is a remnant, chosen by grace. But if it is by grace, it is no longer on the basis of works, otherwise grace would no longer be grace. What then? Israel failed to obtain what it was seeking. The elect obtained it, but the rest were hardened, as it is written, ‘God gave them a sluggish spirit, eyes that would not see and ears that would not hear, down to this very day.’And David says, ‘Let their table become a snare and a trap, a stumbling-block and a retribution for them; let their eyes be darkened so that they cannot see, and keep their backs for ever bent.’ So I ask, have they stumbled so as to fall? By no means! But through their stumbling salvation has come to the Gentiles, so as to make Israel jealous. Now if their stumbling means riches for the world, and if their defeat means riches for Gentiles, how much more will their full inclusion mean!

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on February 13-14/19
Lebanon Government to Win Confidence Vote in Parliament
US Reaffirms Commitment to Lebanon By Delivering Missiles to Army
Saudi Arabia Ends Travel Ban against Lebanon
U.S. Delivers Laser-guided Rockets to Lebanese Army
Saudi ambassador says Kingdom to lift travel warning for Lebanon
Aoun: Financial markets healthier since govt formation
Saudi Envoy Congratulates Aoun, Berri, Hariri on Govt. Formation
Hariri on Feb. 14 Eve: 'I Have Not Changed'
Bukhari Says Hariri Lebanon 'Guardian', PM Says KSA Will Always Back Lebanon
Rampling Urges 'Impactful Reforms', Adherence to Dissociation Policy
Musawi-Gemayel Engage in Heated Debate in Parliament
Nadim Gemayel: 'We're Willing to Take Up Arms'
Sami Gemayel: No Confidence in Govt. 'Architected by Hizbullah'
Israel Resumes Installation of Concrete Blocks on Border
Geagea Says Iran Didn't Record a 'Victory' in Lebanon
Al-Sayyed Clashes with Khalil, Withholds Confidence as Hariri Walks Out
Hezbollah has plans for Israel on the Golan
Un survol de la conjoncture présente au Liban

Litles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 13-14/19
Iran Holds US ‘Mistakes’ Responsible for Its Mounting Regional Power
Iran's Zarif Says Warsaw Meeting 'Dead on Arrival'
Suicide attack kills 20 members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards
U.S., Israeli Leaders in Poland to Press Iran
U.S. Fails to Halt Iran Bid to Free Frozen Billions
Iran could get nuclear weapon within two years, intel assessments find
Israel might expand covert war against Iran beyond Syria in coming year
Israel Confirms Latest Strikes on Syria
ISIS Defends Last Syria Redoubt, as Family Members Flee
Shanahan in Baghdad to Address Concerns over US Troops
UAE Interior Minister: The People of Iran Deserve a Dignified Life, Tehran Must Abandon Delusions
Egypt Parliament to Vote on Extending President's Term
Trump Mulling 'All Options', Warns Maduro against 'Terrible Mistake'

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 13-14/19
Hezbollah has plans for Israel on the Golan/Yossi Yehoshua/Ynetnews/February 13/19
Un survol de la conjoncture présente au Liban/Dr. Toufic Hindi/February 13/19
Iran could get nuclear weapon within two years, intel assessments find/Anna Ahronheim/Jerusalem Post/February 13/19
Israel might expand covert war against Iran beyond Syria in coming year/Anna Ahronheim/Jerusalem Post/February 13/19
Israeli Intelligenc Estimate: New Iranian threat from Iraq. Gaza escalates. Moscow jumps on Palestinian issue/Debeka File/February 13/19
Islam: The West’s “Most Formidable and Persistent Enemy”/Raymond Ibrahim/American Thinker/February 13/19
In Finland, Money Can Buy You Happiness/Leonid Bershidsky/Bloomberg/February,13/19
The Kurds and the Iranian Revolution: An Endless Series of Tragedies/Erbil - Ihsan Aziz/Asharq Al Awsat/February, 13/19
From Warsaw to Tehran, Will Freedom Ring/Dr. Walid Phares/AMCD/February 13/19
Warsaw Summit Will Test U.S. Gamble on Israeli-Arab Pact Against Iran/Amir Tibon/Haaretz/February 13/19
When Will the World's Largest Sunni Religious Institution Disavow Colonization/Saied Shoaaib/Gatestone Institute/February 13/19
Germany: Number of Foreign-Born Prison Inmates at Record High/Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/February 13/19
Hamas, Islamic Jihad War Crimes Against Children and Women/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/February 13/19

Latest LCCC English Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on February 13-14/19
Lebanon Government to Win Confidence Vote in Parliament
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 13 February, 2019/The new government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri is expected to receive Wednesday Parliament’s vote of confidence with the majority of blocs supporting him, except for the Kataeb party and some independent deputies. During the first parliamentary session that kicked off Tuesday to discuss the ministerial statement, Hariri said: “We want this government to be one of actions and not just words.”The PM said the cabinet “is committed to the quick and active implementation of an economic program that should focus  n reforms and investments, and on providing services. The program is also based on the government’s vision that was presented to the CEDRE” conference held in Paris last April to support the country’s economy and infrastructure. The PM said his new government would commit to fighting corruption. “Lebanese officials do not have the luxury of time amid the challenges that are facing the cabinet.” Some 66 deputies are expected to speak during four parliamentary sessions, chaired by Speaker Nabih Berri, on two consecutive days. To gain confidence, the cabinet must win the vote of at least 65 MPs, or half of Parliament’s 128 members plus one. Hariri’s government is expected to clinch that number. On Tuesday, former Prime Minister Tamam Salam said the reforms would not succeed, unless corruption was eradicated, calling for the activation of control bodies and to remove any power that politicians might have over the judiciary. MP Hassan Fadlallah stole the limelight with his long presentation on corruption in the public sector. He claimed that if some documents on alleged deals worth millions of dollars were exposed, this would land some ministers in jail. The deputy called for lifting bank secrecy off the new government's ministers. "There are ministers who, in their private meetings, talk about money and deals that amount to up to USD400 million,” he said.

US Reaffirms Commitment to Lebanon By Delivering Missiles to Army
Beirut- Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 13 February, 2019/The United States delivered laser-guided rockets valued at more than $16 million to the Lebanese military on Wednesday, demonstrating what it said was Washington's "firm and steady commitment" to Lebanon's army. The United States has supplied the Lebanese military with more than $2.3 billion in assistance since 2005, aiming to support it as "the sole, legitimate defender" of a country where the heavily armed, Iran-backed Hezbollah holds major sway. A statement from the US embassy in Beirut said the missiles, delivered in a US military transport plane, were a key component for a previously supplied fleet of A-29 Super Tucano attack aircraft. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, during a visit to Lebanon this week, reiterated his country's long-standing offer of support to the Lebanese army but said Lebanon had first to show "a desire" to accept it. The leader of Hezbollah, which is listed as a terrorist group by Washington, said last week he was ready to secure air defense systems for the Lebanese army from Iran and to bring it "everything it wants to be the strongest army in the region". Hezbollah's Secretray-General Hassan Nasrallah asked why Lebanon was "ignoring" Iran while "offering our necks to others" - an apparent reference to the United States, which has tightened sanctions against his group. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif offered Lebanon on Monday an open-ended proposal for receiving economic, health and security support from Tehran, asserting that no international law prevents the two sides from cooperating. On Monday, the Iranian official met with several Lebanese leaders, including President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri, Prime Minister Saad Hariri, and Nasrallah.

Saudi Arabia Ends Travel Ban against Lebanon
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 13 February, 2019 /Saudi Arabia announced on Wednesday that it was lifting its travel ban against Lebanon. Saudi Ambassador Walid Bukhari made the statement in Beirut following a meeting between royal court envoy Nizar al-Aloula and Prime Minister Saad Hariri. Aloula had also met with President Michel Aoun. “Given that the security conditions, which prompted the warning, have improved and given the reassurances we have heard from officials, we decided to end the ban,” he said.“We are working on forming a joint committee to bolster bilateral ties,” revealed Bukhari. In November 2017, Saudi Arabia advised its citizens not to visit Lebanon and those already in the country to leave.The lifting of the Saudi warning comes two weeks after a new cabinet was formed in Lebanon.

U.S. Delivers Laser-guided Rockets to Lebanese Army
أميركا تزود الدجيش اللبناني بصواريح موجهة بالليزر
Reuters/February 13/19
The United States has supplied the Lebanese military with more than $2.3 billion in assistance since 2005.
The United States delivered laser-guided rockets valued at more than $16 million to the Lebanese military on Wednesday, demonstrating what it said was Washington's "firm and steady commitment" to Lebanon's army.
The United States has supplied the Lebanese military with more than $2.3 billion in assistance since 2005, aiming to support it as "the sole, legitimate defender" of a country where the heavily armed, Iran-backed Hezbollah holds major sway.
A statement from the U.S. embassy in Beirut said the missiles, delivered in a U.S. military transport plane, were a key component for a previously supplied fleet of A-29 Super Tucano attack aircraft. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, during a visit to Lebanon this week, reiterated his country's long-standing offer of support to the Lebanese army but said Lebanon had first to show "a desire" to accept it. The leader of Hezbollah, which is listed as a terrorist group by Washington, said last week he was ready to secure air defence systems for the Lebanese army from Iran and to bring it "everything it wants to be the strongest army in the region". The leader of Hezbollah, which is listed as a terrorist group by Washington, said last week he was ready to secure air defence systems for the Lebanese army from Iran and to bring it "everything it wants to be the strongest army in the region".
Hezbollah's Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah asked why Lebanon was "ignoring" Iran while "offering our necks to others" - an apparent reference to the United States, which has tightened sanctions against his group. Hezbollah's direct role in government has expanded in the new cabinet led by the Western-backed Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, assuming control of three portfolios including the health ministry, which has a major budget.

Saudi ambassador says Kingdom to lift travel warning for Lebanon
Arab News/February 13/19/JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia will lift its warning against citizens travelling to Lebanon, its ambassador to Beirut was cited as saying by Lebanese Al-Jadeed television on Wednesday. "Given that the previous security reasons have ended and based on reassurances from the Lebanese government to Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia then is lifting its travel warning for its citizens," Al-Jadeed cited Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid bin Abdullah Bukhari as saying. The announcement came after Lebanese President Michel Aoun on Wednesday said his country is keen to strengthen relations with Saudi Arabia. The comments came during a meeting in Beirut between the president and advisor to the Saudi Royal Court, Nizar Al-Aloula and Bukhari. Al-Aloula told Aoun that King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman welcomed the recent formation of the Lebanese government. The Saudi envoy also expressed: "Saudi Arabia's support for Lebanon’s security and stability, and the brotherly ties between both countries.”Aoun said Lebanon is keen to bolster ties with Saudi Arabia in all fields.

Aoun: Financial markets healthier since govt formation
The Daily Star/February 13/19/BEIRUT: President Michel Aoun said Wednesday that Lebanon’s financial markets were healthier than they were before the government was formed, during his first meeting with the new head of the U.N.'s Arab countries agency. “We have made it through the dangerous stage. With the formation of the government, the situation has improved, but the economic crisis of course will not go away overnight,” Aoun told Rola Dashti, the new executive secretary of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, according to a statement from his office. Reforms that would enable Lebanon to unlock the more than $11 billion in soft loans and grants that were pledged at the CEDRE conference last year came one step further to being realized when the government was formed on Jan. 31, after almost nine months of gridlock.
The Cabinet’s proposed policy statement, which was announced in full on Tuesday, commits to important reforms in areas such as the electricity sector, economics and finance, and the environment. Aoun said that “restoring confidence is the first step to improving Lebanon’s economic situation,” and expressed hope that Lebanese markets would flourish in the near future as more “fellow Arabs start visiting the country.” He referenced the 2019 draft budget, saying it “would send signals to countries that want to help Lebanon’s economy.” The draft budget was delivered to Cabinet in September last year, but must go through the new Cabinet and Parliament before it is passed. The head of Parliament’s Finance and Budget Committee Ibrahim Kanaan said earlier this month that the budget must be the top priority of the new Cabinet. During her meeting with Aoun, Dashti congratulated Lebanon on its appointment of four women to the Cabinet and said that she looks forward to greater female representation in Lebanese political life. Dashti emphasized ESCWA’s commitment to strengthening cooperation with Lebanon and neighboring countries, adding that “our main goal is to ensure the peaceful and sustainable existence of Arab citizens in light of economic concerns and political challenges.”

Saudi Envoy Congratulates Aoun, Berri, Hariri on Govt. Formation
Naharnet/February 13/19/President Michel Aoun received Saudi envoy Nizar al-Aloula on Wednesday accompanied by Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid al-Bukhari, the State-run National News Agency reported.NNA said the envoy has conveyed congratulations of Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on the formation of Lebanon’s government. Al-Aloula expressed the Kingdom’s continued support for Lebanon. Aoun for his part asked the envoy to convey his salutation to the Saudi monarch and crown prince, underscoring "Lebanon's keenness on boosting cooperation between the two countries in all fields.""The meeting tackled means to activate the bilateral agreements between the two countries with the aim of developing relations between them," NNA said. "Discussions also addressed the Lebanese presidential suggestion to establish the "Human Academy for Rapprochement and Dialogue" and the contacts that Lebanon has made to provide Arab and international support for it, the agency added. Later in the day, al-Aloula held talks at Parliament with Speaker Nabih Berri. NNA said talks tackled the bilateral relations and the current developments and that the envoy relayed the Saudi king's congratulations on the formation of the new government. Al-Aloula later held talks with Prime Minister Saad Hariri at the Grand Serail. “We offered congratulations to PM Saad Hariri and discussed a host of decisions, most importantly the joint committee between the two countries and sending a committee of Lebanese experts to meet their counterparts in Saudi Arabia,” Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid al-Bukhari said after the meeting. “Convening the joint committee will boost ties between the two countries,” Bukhari added.

Hariri on Feb. 14 Eve: 'I Have Not Changed'
Naharnet/February 13/19/On the eve of the 14th anniversary of the assassination of ex-PM Rafik Hariri, Prime Minister Saad Hariri has stressed that he has not “changed” his political views and stances. “I believe in moderation and I believe that countries can only be built through moderation and that extremism is the enemy of any progress,” Hariri said in an interview with An-Nahar newspaper's editor-in-chief, ex-MP Nayla Tueni. Acknowledging that political disputes have “undermined people's confidence in the state,” Hariri told those who have lost confidence in him that he has not “changed.”“I'm the same person who sought to continue Rafik Hariri's journey with the people in 2005,” he said. “But the region has changed and so did politics and the divisions... We returned backwards while I'm trying to look forward. We ran into violent events in the region that divided the country and today we are coming out of them,” Hariri added. “I have not changed my camp, but the regional disputes will not push me to paralyze the country,” he said. Asked whether Hizbullah is trying to impose its will on the country, Hariri said: “Hizbullah is trying to impose some things in the country, but if the parties do not cooperate with each other, there will be no solution to the country's problems.”And insisting that “no one can eliminate anyone in Lebanon,” the premier emphasized that “the Lebanese are the ones who choose the axis they want to be in.”As for his relation with President Michel Aoun, Hariri said: “The President has not abandoned his allies and I have not abandoned mine, but the President and I have decided that it is necessary to find consensus among the three presidents (Aoun, Hariri and Speaker Nabih Berri) for the sake of the country.”“The foundation of the executive authority is the relation and partnership between the President and the Premier,” Hariri added. As for his relations with the other political leaders, the premier said he has “excellent” ties with Aoun, Berri, Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil, Progressive Socialist Party leader ex-MP Walid Jumblat and Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea.
Asked about the recent deterioration in the relation with Jumblat, Hariri said: “The relation with him is good and I understand his fears, but I lament that he does not know how much I am with him.”And reassuring that the latest row between them has been resolved, the PM added: “There is also a war on me, not only on Walid Jumblat.” “Discord between us strengthens the others and accord between us deters them,” he noted.

Bukhari Says Hariri Lebanon 'Guardian', PM Says KSA Will Always Back Lebanon
Naharnet/February 13/19/Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid al-Bukhari on Wednesday described Prime Minister Saad Hariri as an “extension” of his father, slain ex-PM Rafik Hariri, and as a “guardian of the approach of protecting Lebanon.”“We are people who defend Lebanon's independence and sovereignty because we consider ourselves to be from Lebanon and that Lebanon is a part of us,” Bukhari said at a forum at Beirut's Seaside Arena. The forum titled “Taef Accord: Achievements, Numbers and Partners” was organized by the Hariri Foundation for Sustainable Human Development in cooperation with the Saudi embassy in Beirut to commemorate the 14th anniversary of Rafik Hariri's assassination. “They assassinated him because they wanted to bury the Taef Accord,” Bukhari noted. “We congratulate on the formation of the government and we hope it will be a gateway for prosperity and we are fully confident that Lebanon will rise anew,” the ambassador added, stressing that “Saudi Arabia is keen on Lebanon's safety, stability and national unity.”Hariri meanwhile delivered an address in which he thanked Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for the participation of Saudi royal envoy Nizar al-Aloula in the forum.He added that “Saudi Arabia and its leadership and people will always stand by the Lebanese,” noting that the Taef Accord has turned into “a model for a lot of the region's countries that are aspiring to restore civil peace through a political settlement.”

Rampling Urges 'Impactful Reforms', Adherence to Dissociation Policy
Naharnet/February 13/19/British Ambassador to Lebanon Chris Rampling on Wednesday urged Lebanon to implement “impactful” economic reforms and to abide by its self-declared policy of disassociation. Rampling voiced his remarks after talks with Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil. “The Foreign Minister and I had a positive meeting just now, and I handed over a letter of congratulations on the formation of the new government from the Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt,” the ambassador said. “I congratulated his excellency on the formation of a new cabinet and his reappointment as foreign minister. This is an important moment for Lebanon’s stability and the economy,” he added. Rampling said that he agreed with Bassil that UK-Lebanese relations “have never been stronger,” noting that London is currently spending $200m+ to contribute to “Lebanon’s security and prosperity.”
“We also agreed that we should further deepen our partnership over a range of areas,” the ambassador said. “I reiterated to the Foreign Minister that the UK was planning on increasing our assistance on economic development in particular, in support of CEDRE plan and that is to provide over £90m in support and that will help to leverage much more. We want to see a vibrant and resilient Lebanese economy, with more UK firms investing here,” Rampling added. “And to support that vision, I welcomed the commitment of the new Lebanese government moving forward swiftly with credible and impactful economic reforms,” he went on to say. Turning to the situation in the region and its impact on Lebanon, including the huge refugee burden, Rampling said that the United Kingdom will “continue to support Lebanon” in this regard. He added: “The UK will also continue to support Lebanese sovereignty and stability, both through assistance and through diplomacy. And at the time of increased regional uncertainty I welcome in particular the new government’s commitment to the policy of disassociation, and to the relevant U.N. Security Council resolutions, including 1701 and 1559.”

Musawi-Gemayel Engage in Heated Debate in Parliament
Naharnet/February 13/19/A heated debate erupted on Wednesday between Hizbullah MP Nawaf Musawi and Kataeb MP Nadim Gemayel when MP Sami Gemayel was delivering his speech during a Parliament session dedicated to discussing the government's policy statement. Loyalty to the Resistance bloc deputy, Musawi, said his bloc has the right to reply to any remarks that target his bloc or Hizbullah. He added that President Michel Aoun was elected as President “thanks to the Resistance’s (Hizbullah’s) arms.”“President Michel Aoun is in Baabda Palace thanks for the Resistance’s rifle. He did not arrive via Israeli tanks,” in an indirect reference at late President Bashir Gemayel. This prompted an angry intervention from MP Nadim Gemayel, son of Bashir. “This rhetoric is unacceptable. You have all voted for Bashir as president in this very parliament,” said Nadim Gemayel.

Nadim Gemayel: 'We're Willing to Take Up Arms'
Naharnet/February 13/19/Kataeb bloc MP Nadim Gemayel on Wednesday lashed out at Hizbullah, after MP Nawwaf al-Moussawi voiced remarks against slain president-elect Bashir Gemayel -- Nadim's father and the founder of the Lebanese Forces. “They have insulted our most important icon – Bashir Gemayel,” the lawmaker said at Ashrafieh's Sassine Square, where Kataeb and LF supporters held a sit-in to denounce Moussawi's remarks. “If we want to build a strong state we must respect each other. If they don't respect us, we won't respect them. The arms with which they are threatening us do not scare us and their words do not scare us,” Gemayel added. “We are ready to take up arms to stand in your face, but we don't want to reach this situation. But do not try to corner us and do not attack our icons. Bashir Gemayel is a red line!” the MP went on to say. During a speech by MP Sami Gemayel in parliament earlier in the day, Moussawi said “it honors the Lebanese that President Michel Aoun was elected through the rifle of the resistance while others reached the presidency on an Israeli tank.”Nadim Gemayel hit back during the session, saying “no one reached the presidency on the top of an Israeli tank.”“You were throwing rice on the Israelis and most of you voted for President Bashir in this parliament,” he added, apparently referring to some Shiite citizens and ex-MPs. Moussawi snapped back, saying: “Your size is equivalent to an Israeli tank.”

Sami Gemayel: No Confidence in Govt. 'Architected by Hizbullah'
Naharnet/February 13/19/Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel on Wednesday lashed out at Hizbullah during his debate of the Cabinet's Policy Statement in parliament, describing it as the “architect” of the new government. “The wooden rhetoric is of no use and no government can succeed without an opposition. We will not grant this government our confidence and we hope it will gain our confidence if it works in the right way,” Gemayel said. “We will not give the government our confidence in advance, because what we have witnessed does not call for confidence in a government that took nine months in the making for the sake of splitting shares. We will not give confidence to a government that lacks confidence among its ministers,” the MP went on to say. “Is there confidence between the ministers of al-Mustaqbal Movement and Hizbullah or between the Free Patriotic Movement and the Lebanese Forces or between the Progressive Socialist Party and the FPM?” he asked. And noting that Hizbullah has “architected the government,” Gemayel called for “acknowledging that Hizbullah imposed its Druze and Sunni allies and stripped the President of the one-third-plus-one veto power.”“We will not accept religious 'dhimmism' and we will not accept political 'dhimmism'. A party should not be allowed to implicate a state and this flaw cannot continue,” Gemayel added. A dhimmi is a historical term referring to non-Muslims living in an Islamic state with legal protection. The word literally means "protected person", referring to the Islamic state's obligation under the Islamic sharia law to protect the individual's life, property, and freedom of religion, in exchange for loyalty to the state and payment of the jizya tax. “We are not aggressing against anyone but are rather trying to create the minimum foundations for the rise of the state and we want the army to be the sole protector,” Gemayel said. “Why didn't you stop arbitrary employment before? What has changed? In the statement you said that you will provide 24/7 electricity, will you bring new (power generating) ships?” the MP added, addressing the parties represented in the government.

Israel Resumes Installation of Concrete Blocks on Border
Naharnet/February 13/19/Israeli troops on Wednesday resumed the installation of a controversial concrete barrier wall on the border between Lebanon and occupied Palestine opposite the village of Kfarkila, LBCI television reported. Israel is building a massive wall along its northern border, saying the barrier is needed to protect civilians from Hizbullah attacks. New threats emerged between Lebanon and Israel over several issues, including the wall the Jewish state is building that Beirut says may jut into Lebanese territories, as well as plans for oil and gas exploration in the Mediterranean.

Geagea Says Iran Didn't Record a 'Victory' in Lebanon
Naharnet/February 13/19/Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea considered as “unfounded” the claims that Iran has “triumphed” in the region and is trying to reflect that in Lebanon, noting that the “unwillingness of parties to engage in a confrontation does not mean that Iran has won,” the Saudi Asharq al-Awsat newspaper reported on Wednesday. In remarks Geagea made to the daily in an interview, and whether Iran is trying to invest its alleged “regional victory” in Lebanon, Geagea said: “I totally oppose this theory.” “First, the confrontation in the region is in full swing. Some tactical victories here and some tactical defeats elsewhere,” said Geagea. He added: “For those who say that Iran has taken control of Lebanon, I will refer to (Hizbullah leader Sayyed) Nasrallah's proposal that Iran is ready to arm the Lebanese army and provide Lebanon with medicines. But all these suggestions arrived nowhere, and they won’t? Hence it is not true that Iran has taken control. At the moment no one wants a confrontation but that does not mean that Iran has won.” Geagea expressed regret that some “allies” did not stand with the LF regarding the issue of Hizbullah’s arms in the government policy statement, and the way it was addressed. But he said that "Prime Minister Saad Hariri expressed his appreciation for our position in the government, but the other team must hear other voices to know that it is not right,” he said. “Of course, the Lebanese citizens have to right to resist the Israeli occupation, we all believe in this within the framework of the legitimate institutions of the Lebanese state, but they do not want to, why? Here you realize that it is not a question of Israel's resistance as much as it is about creating a framework outside the state, and we do not accept that,” he added.On the LF’s relations with the Free Patriotic Movement and its founder President Michel Aoun, Geagea said: “They are not well at the moment,” but hoped they would grow better after the elections and the formation of the government.

Al-Sayyed Clashes with Khalil, Withholds Confidence as Hariri Walks Out
Naharnet/February 13/19/Firebrand lawmaker Jamil al-Sayyed on Tuesday engaged in a verbal dispute with Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil as he addressed Parliament during a session to debate the new government's Policy Statement. The minister said that “the state's treasury was empty and then it turned out that there were 600 billion liras and that the state did not pay the wheat farmers in the Bekaa,” al-Sayyed said, drawing a swift and angry response from Khalil, who interrupted his speech. “This is not true,” Khalil shouted. He later repeated his interruption of al-Sayyed several times, especially when the latter mentioned the issue of borrowing money from the social security fund. Speaker Nabih Berri then intervened and asked Khalil to write his remarks and announce them later. Prime Minister Saad Hariri had walked out of the session as al-Sayyed began his address before eventually returning. Al-Sayyed criticized Hariri for walking out, describing him as the “disappeared premier” and noting that “the PM should be present because he is requesting confidence in his government.”“I want to say that the disappeared premier has appeared,” Hariri told Berri upon his return to the session. Al-Sayyed had earlier announced that he was withholding confidence from Hariri's government. “Confidently and with a clear conscience, I say that I will not grant this government my confidence,” the MP said. “If I find out after several months that this government has served the people, I will grant it my confidence before the media outlets but today I will not grant confidence in advance,” he clarified. Noting that the new ministers “should submit criminal records,” al-Sayyed accused Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh of “wasting $5.5 billion,” lamenting that “the state today has borrowed billions to ensure continuity.”Al-Sayyed also called for the rotation of security and judicial posts among sects and said Hariri should “apologize over the four years that the four officers spent in jail,” referring to himself and three other former chiefs of security agencies who were jailed in connection with the 2005 assassination of ex-PM Rafik Hariri before being cleared of any charges.

Hezbollah has plans for Israel on the Golan
يوسي يهوشوا من يدعوت احرونوت: حزب الله لديه خطط لإسرائيل في الجولان
Yossi Yehoshua/Ynetnews/February 13/19
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/72155/yossi-yehoshua-ynetnews-hezbollah-has-plans-for-israel-on-the-golan-%d9%8a%d9%88%d8%b3%d9%8a-%d9%8a%d9%87%d9%88%d8%b4%d9%88%d8%a7-%d9%85%d9%86-%d9%8a%d8%af%d8%b9%d9%88%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%88/
Analysis: Israel had better pay attention to the emerging reality on its Syria border in the Golan Heights, where the Lebanese terror group is attempting to get a foothold; the Iranian-backed organization is up to its neck in problems at home and finds the Syrian frontier to be a more comfortable location from which to take on the Jewish state.
While Hamas attempts to incrementally turn up the heat in the riots among Israel’s Gaza border, the "Palestinian night squads" have resumed their evening protests along the security fence, disrupting the Israel Defense Forces' routine activity. But Israel had better pay attention to the emerging reality on its Syria border in the Golan Heights where Hezbollah has been attempting to tighten its grip exactly as it did four years ago.
According to Syrian reports, IDF tanks on Monday evening fired artillery rounds at "a demolished hospital" in Syria's southern Quneitra province near the border with Israel, causing material damage. It was also reported that Israel hit a military observation post in the border village of Jabta Elhashab. Some reports say the post belonged to "local activists," but it more likely belonged to Hezbollah, which is trying to regain its hold in the Syrian Golan Heights.
While the IDF maintained a policy of ambiguity over Monday's strike, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did confirm that Israel had attacked Iranian targets in Syria, just he assumed responsibility for previous attacks over the few past weeks.
Hezbollah is trying to entrench itself in Syria, after Syrian President Bashar Assad has reclaimed the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, precisely as it did between 2014-2015. This was when one of the terror organization's more prominent members, Jihad Mughniyeh, was appointed by Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force to be in charge of the Golan Heights area and planning terror attacks against Israeli civilians.
But Jihad was killed in a 2015 airstrike attributed to Israel. His father, Hezbollah military and intelligence chief Imad Mughniyeh, was who also killed in an alleged Israeli operation in 2008.
In retribution for Jihad's death, Hezbollah staged an ambush of an IDF convoy near the Har Dov area, in close proximity to the Lebanese border, firing Kornet anti-tank missiles at the passing troops. The strike was followed by mortar fire coming in from Lebanon onto Mount Hermon after the IDF responded to the attack. Giva'ati Company Commander Major Yohai Kalangel and Sergeant Dor Nini were killed and seven others were injured in the incident.
Hezbollah has recently announced it intends to release footage of that incident, which is considered the gravest since the 2006 Second Lebanon War.
The IDF has yet to comment on the terrorist group's announcement, however, the army has confirmed Hezbollah's attempts to base itself across Syrian villages over the past few months, operating against Israel in an area that is not bound by UN resolutions, unlike the Israel-Lebanon border.
In addition, an increase in the number of incidents along the Syrian border was noted over the past two months, with the Israeli strikes in Syria for which no one assumed responsibility meant to signal the enemy that it is best not cross any red lines. This is similar to the message Jerusalem conveyed to Iran when it attempted to entrench itself in Syria and was pushed out of there after a series of Israeli airstrikes.
Unlike the situation of four years ago, Iran has a rare presence along the Syrian border, while Hezbollah is working to resume its confrontations with Israel. But since the organization is up to its neck in domestic problems and cannot allow itself to face Israel on the Lebanese front, it finds Syria to be a more comfortable staging ground from which to take on the Jewish state.
Israel must therefore act with the same determination it demonstrated in 2015, which ultimately ruined Hezbollah's plans.
https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5462852,00.html

Un survol de la conjoncture présente au Liban
Dr. Toufic Hindi/February 13/19
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/72135/%d8%af-%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%81%d9%8a%d9%82-%d9%87%d9%86%d8%af%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%8a%d9%86%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%88%d8%b6%d8%b9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%a7%d9%86-dr-toufic-hind-un-sur/
Le président Michel Aoun est l’allié stratégique et tactique du Hezbollah, aux dires du secrétaire général du Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah.
Le gouvernement est aussi, par excellence, celui du Hezbollah. Son bloc élargi compte 20 ministres : 3 à lui, 3 à Berry, 1 à Frangié, 1 sunnite du 8 Mars, 10 à Aoun-Bassil, et 2 à Joumblatt (qui, depuis le 7 mai 2008 ne rentre pas en contradiction avec le Hezbollah surtout concernant les questions qui lui sont importantes). Les 10 autres sont des adversaires dont la fonction, à la vue du Hezbollah, est de lui assurer une couverture politique face à ses ennemis régionaux et internationaux.
Kassem Suleimani avait bien déclaré à l’issue des élections législatives que le Parlement comptait 74 députés du camp de la « résistance ». C’est vrai aussi.
Ainsi, le Hezbollah détient directement et indirectement le pouvoir dans les trois institutions constitutionnelles du pays.
De plus, tout responsable dans n’importe quelle institution étatique qu’elle soit administrative, militaire ou sécuritaire, soit reçoit ses directives du Hezbollah, soit il est naturellement enclin à prendre des décisions en harmonie avec ce qu’il croit être les intérêts et les desiderata dudit parti, réel détenteur du pouvoir.
Ses armes, même s’il ne les utilise pas à l’intérieur, lui permettent d’y exercer son hégémonie. Ainsi, il est le plus fort à l’intérieur de l’État comme à l’extérieur. L’État est virtuel et son pouvoir est réel.
Mais, ce n’est pas un secret que le Hezbollah depuis ses débuts est le membre principal de la légion du Qods, responsable de l’exportation de la révolution islamique au sein des pasdaran. De ce fait, il est partie intégrante de la République islamique d’Iran.
Sans aucune exagération et en toute objectivité, on peut donc dire que le Liban est sous une occupation iranienne via le Hezbollah.
La gente politique libanaise « au pouvoir », toutes tendances confondues, occulte sciemment cette réalité évidente et amère.
Sa composante appartenant à l’ex-14 Mars se réfugie dans le mirage d’une illusoire libanité du Hezbollah ou la possibilité de sa libanisation qui lui ferait perdre sa raison d’être.
Elle murmure tout bas son attachement aux principes de liberté, de souveraineté et d’indépendance de l’État pour concilier l’inconciliable : ménager sa base populaire et les susceptibilités du Hezbollah.
À l’opposé, elle met en exergue la nécessité de l’édification d’un État « au véritable sens du terme », donne le prima à la ridicule « politique de distanciation », totalement bafouée par la vadrouille régionale du Hezbollah, à une stabilité tributaire de son bon désir, à la lutte contre la corruption par les corrompus eux-mêmes, à la sortie de la crise économique
qui ne peut être que temporaire et partielle tant que le Liban est sous occupation iranienne et qui se ferait avec elle ou sans elle… autant de subterfuges pour cacher les véritables raisons de sa participation aux miettes du pouvoir.
Elle dénomme la soumission cohabitation. Elle justifie sa cohabitation aujourd’hui par le fait qu’elle a été pratiquée par le 14 Mars depuis 2005, oubliant que les rapports de force ont substantiellement changé depuis, en nette faveur du Hezbollah. De plus, l’accord quadripartite et la cohabitation ont été deux énormes bourdes stratégiques du 14 Mars. Elle découvre tardivement que le réalisme et pragmatisme politique est la bonne voie à suivre.
Le rapport de force régional qui, certes, influence le rapport de force intérieur, demeure jusqu’à l’heure en faveur de l’Iran. Il est difficile d’estimer qu’elle a perdu la bataille au Yémen où les houthis se sont imposés face l’État. En Irak, l’influence iranienne prédomine face à l’influence américaine. En Syrie, Assad a été maintenu au pouvoir et la présence militaire iranienne assurée à travers la légion du Qods, demeure massive avec une Russie qui ne veut et qui ne peut les retirer de Syrie. Au Liban, elle est maître du pouvoir. Son influence sur les Palestiniens va grandissante.
D’aucuns clament le contraire pour justifier leur participation au gouvernement en se targuant de faire contrepoids au Hezbollah. Il est vrai que l’Iran est ciblé par ses ennemis. Mais rien n’est dit pour le moment quant à l’éventualité et l’issue de la confrontation en cours qui pourrait se développer en guerre partielle ou totale ou pas. En dernière instance, tout dépendrait du degré d’engagement américain.
Tenant compte de la nature théocratique du pouvoir en Iran, la politique américaine basée sur son encerclement, son étouffement économique et sa déstabilisation résulterait vraisemblablement en un surplus de politique iranienne agressive et expansionniste.
En conclusion, il aurait mieux valu pour la sauvegarde du Liban que les partis de l’ex-14 Mars participant au gouvernement ne se fourvoient pas dans ce deal inégal avec le Hezbollah, de le laisser former son propre gouvernement et de participer à la réunification des forces souverainistes qu’ils ont disloquées, exhibant ainsi la volonté des Libanais de résister pacifiquement à la mainmise iranienne sur le pays du Cèdre et lui permettant de minimiser les dégâts dans l’éventualité d’une guerre régionale dont un des terrains serait inévitablement le Liban.
Malheureusement, on ne peut que déplorer que leur appétit de pouvoir et d’argent ait eu le dessus sur leur devoir national.
Cela dit, un mauvais gouvernement, avec ou sans la participation de l’ex-14 Mars, est mieux que l’absence de gouvernement.
Ce texte est le courrier d'un lecteur. A ce titre, il n'engage que son auteur et ne reflète pas nécessairement le point de vue de L'Orient-Le Jour.

Latest LCCC English Miscellaneous Reports & News published on February 13-14/19
Iran Holds US ‘Mistakes’ Responsible for Its Mounting Regional Power
London- Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 13 February, 2019/Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohamad Javad Zarif has reacted to US President Donald Trump’s tweet criticizing Iran’s government on the 40th anniversary of the 1979 revolution and calling on Trump to rethink the US policy. Trump had tweeted late Monday, “40 years of corruption. 40 years of repression. 40 years of terror. The regime in Iran has produced only #40YearsofFailure. The long-suffering Iranian people deserve a much brighter future.” Zarif, in response, tweeted, “#40YearsofFailure to accept that Iranians will never return to submission. #40YearsofFailure to adjust US policy to reality. #40YearsofFailure to destabilize Iran through blood & treasure.”“After 40 years of wrong choices, time for Trump to rethink failed US policy,” he said. Zarif considered that Iranian power is linked to Western mistakes. The reason behind Iran's power is the Western support to Saddam Hussein and to ousting ruling regimes. During the commemorations of the 40th anniversary of the revolution, Zarif said: “People are the pillar of this establishment’s power, that is why respecting the rights of people is not only a moral issue but a necessity for national security.”He also said foreign pressure has failed to bring the Iranian government to its knees.Moreover, Iran's armed forces chief of staff Major General Mohammad Baqeri said: “Whether or not anything is said against Iran during the Warsaw meeting, it will fail to affect the Islamic Republic’s policy and power. We will wait and see if the Polish officials will stick to their word.”

Iran's Zarif Says Warsaw Meeting 'Dead on Arrival'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 13/19/Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Wednesday that a two-day conference being co-hosted by Washington in Warsaw on Iran and the Middle East was "dead on arrival.""It is another attempt by the United States to pursue an obsession with Iran that is not well-founded," Zarif told a Tehran news conference."The Warsaw conference, I believe, is dead on arrival."Zarif said not even Washington had any interest in the conference as a forum for an exchange of views among the 60 participating countries. "I think the fact that they are not aiming to issue any agreed text but rather are just attempting to use their own statement on behalf of everybody else shows they don't have any respect for it themselves," he said. "You usually don't bring 60 countries and states together in order to speak for them. That indicates to you that they don't believe they have anything to gain from this meeting." Zarif said most of the states going to the conference were doing so due to pressure from the United States. "They used their money, they used their influence, they used the military might of the United States," he said. "They used the leverage they have with various countries in order to attract more people to this conference. "Many (countries) going there have told us that (they) don't have any other choice," the foreign minister added.Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also spoke out against the conference, citing it as an example of U.S. failure against the Islamic republic."Today they feel they need a coalition of dozens of hostile or  daunted states to confront the Islamic republic politically and militarily," his official website quoted him as saying, adding that they would fail. Much of the schedule for the conference remains vague amid deep divisions over policy towards the region, where Washington has adopted the deep hostility towards Iran of its allies Israel and Saudi Arabia. Washington will be represented by both Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, but major European allies are sending low-profile delegations amid unease over President Donald Trump's strident calls to strangle Iran's economy. The main session will take place on Thursday when Pence, Pompeo and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are all scheduled to address the conference. Netanyahu, who has vowed to keep striking Iranian forces until they leave war-torn Syria and has not ruled out a military strike to destroy Iran's remaining nuclear facilities, is likely to deliver a fiery address. But outside of Israel, Iran's Arab rivals and the Trump administration, nearly all countries still back an accord negotiated under previous U.S. president Barack Obama under which Iran agreed to accept tight limits to its nuclear activities in return for the easing of crippling economic sanctions.

Suicide attack kills 20 members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards
The attack comes as the US and other countries are attending meetings in Warsaw that are widely seen as part of an attempt to confront Iran in the region
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/February 13/19/Iranian state media said that up to 20 members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were killed when a terrorists carried out a suicide bombing of bus in southeast Iran. Video showed a bus mangled alongside a road at night. There were up to “thirty martyrs,” Fars News said as the casualties appeared to increase throughout the evening. The attack comes as the US and other countries are attending meetings in Warsaw that are widely seen as part of an attempt to confront Iran in the region.The southeastern area of Iran has suffered a wave of attacks by various armed groups, such as Jaish Al-Adl, a group based in Sistan and Baluchestan province. In September gunmen attacked a military parade in Ahwaz, an area in southwestern Iran. Other attacks by Kurdish groups in northeastern Iran have also targeted the IRGC.

U.S., Israeli Leaders in Poland to Press Iran
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 13/19/U.S. and Israeli leaders gathered Wednesday in Warsaw for a conference they hope will pile pressure on Iran, as Britain held out hope for progress on Yemen's humanitarian crisis. Starting with a dinner at the Royal Castle in Warsaw's old town, the two-day meeting has set a vague goal of promoting "peace and security in the Middle East" but is as notable for its absences as its attendees. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Vice President Mike Pence will headline the conference Thursday but few prominent European officials have come to fellow EU member Poland amid unease with the strident U.S. line on Iran. Tehran branded the conference a failure even before it started, saying that the United States was trying to speak on behalf of other countries rather than exchange views. "It is another attempt by the United States to pursue an obsession with Iran that is not well-founded," Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told a news conference in Tehran. "The Warsaw conference, I believe, is dead on arrival," he said. Iran earlier summoned the ambassador of Poland, which is eager to please the US amid worries over a resurgent Russia. Poland has since taken pains to say that the conference is not directed at Iran and that it joins the European Union in supporting a 2015 agreement under which Tehran constrained its nuclear program in return for promises of sanctions relief. President Donald Trump bolted last year from the deal negotiated by his predecessor Barack Obama, calling it "terrible," and instead reimposed sweeping sanctions aimed at strangling the Iranian economy. Netanyahu, speaking as he headed to Warsaw, said that Israel launched new military strikes Monday against Iranian-linked sites in Syria, where Israel is adamant about eliminating the presence of Tehran and its ally Hizbullah. "We are operating every day, including (Monday), against Iran and its attempts to establish its presence in the area," said Netanyahu, a longtime hawk against the clerical regime which refuses to recognize Israel's existence.
Guarded hopes on Yemen
The sole senior official from a major European power to attend is British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, who said he wanted to focus on ending the crisis in Yemen. Several million Yemenis are on the brink of starvation and the country has suffered one of the worst cholera outbreaks in modern times as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates -- backed by the United States -- seek to bomb and blockade Iranian-linked Huthi rebels into surrender. Hunt -- whose country is also a major arms supplier to Riyadh -- met Tuesday evening in Warsaw jointly with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and senior officials from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Hunt said he hoped to expand on a seven-week ceasefire that has largely held in the crucial port city of Hodeida. "We now have a shortening window of opportunity to turn the ceasefire into a durable path to peace -- and stop the world's worst humanitarian crisis," Hunt said. "Real progress has been made to reach a political solution but there are also real issues of trust between the two sides," he said.
Trump ally seeks regime change
Russia -- a major player in Syria as Trump withdraws U.S. troops -- is shunning the conference and will hold parallel talks Thursday in the resort of Sochi with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In Warsaw, Turkey said it will only send embassy staff to the conference among its NATO allies. The Trump administration has insisted that it wants changes in Iran's policies in the Middle East but that it is not looking to topple the regime -- which began to emerge 40 years ago this week when the Islamic revolution toppled the pro-U.S. shah. Yet former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani -- who serves as Trump's personal lawyer but does not represent the U.S. government -- openly called for regime change at a rally in Warsaw with Iran's exiled opposition. "We shouldn't be doing business with a nation that supports terrorism," Giuliani told the rally of the People's Mujahedin, which is close to U.S. conservatives. "They should be ostracized. That's what we've done with countries like that," he said. "I know we're united in that we want to see a regime change in Iran, so that there's a regime that is democratic, that's lawful." The formerly armed opposition group, whose members fervently back their leader Maryam Rajavi, has carried out attacks inside Iran but was delisted as a terrorist group by the United States in 2012.

U.S. Fails to Halt Iran Bid to Free Frozen Billions
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 13/19/An international court Wednesday ruled Iran can proceed with a bid to unfreeze assets in the United States, rejecting Washington's claims the case must be halted because of Tehran's alleged support for international terrorism.Washington had argued that Iran's "unclean hands" - a reference to Tehran's suspected backing of terror groups -- should disqualify its lawsuit to recover $2 billion in assets frozen by the U.S. Supreme Court in 2016. But the International Court of Justice in The Hague threw out the U.S. challenges, and said that it had the right to hold full hearings at a later date as to whether Tehran will get the money back. Chief judge Abdulqawi Ahmed Yusuf said the U.N.'s top court "unanimously rejects the preliminary objections to admissibility raised by the United States of America."The court also "finds that it has jurisdiction" in the case, Yusuf said at the end of an hour-long reading of the decision. Tehran said the United States had illegally seized Iranian financial assets and those of Iranian companies -- and with Iran's clerical regime facing economic difficulties after sanctions and a fall in its currency resolving the case remains crucial. The U.S. Supreme Court had said Iran must give the cash to survivors and relatives of victims of attacks blamed on Tehran, including the 1983 bombing of a U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut and the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia. Iran said the freezing of the funds breached the 1955 Treaty of Amity with the United States, an agreement signed before Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution severed relations between the countries. The United States announced in October that it was pulling out of the Treaty of Amity after the ICJ in a separate case ordered Washington to lift nuclear-related sanctions on humanitarian goods for Iran. The ICJ is the top court of the United Nations and was set up after World War II to resolve disputes between member states. Its rulings are binding and cannot be appealed, but it has no means of enforcing them.
'Unclean hands'
Tensions between Tehran and Washington are already high around the 40th anniversary of the Iranian revolution and a Middle East meeting in Warsaw starting Wednesday where the United States aims to pile pressure on Iran. Relations have been strained ever since U.S. President Donald Trump's decision last year to pull out of a "terrible" international nuclear deal with Iran and reimpose sanctions. The 2015 nuclear deal had unblocked billions of dollars in other Iranian funds. Iran first lodged the lawsuit in June 2016, accusing Washington of breaking the decades-old amity treaty dating from the time of the Shah, who was deposed in the revolution. Judge Yusuf noted that at the last hearing on Iran's funds in October, the United States had argued "that Iran's 'unclean hands' preclude the court from proceeding with this case." But he added that "even if it were shown that (Iran's) conduct was not beyond reproach, this would not be sufficient" on its own to throw out the case. He also said the fact that the U.S. had now pulled out of the amity treaty with Iran "has no effect on the jurisdiction of the court" and that it now needed to hold detailed hearings. U.S. officials including U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton have previously called the ICJ's legitimacy into account, and were incensed by October's ruling by the court that Washington must drop sanctions on humanitarian goods. In Poland this week, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will use a two-day conference of foreign ministers to try to rally the world behind increasing pressure on Iran and supporting Israel, although turnout could be thin. The Trump administration has also found itself at odds with its European allies over the nuclear deal, with EU powers launching a mechanism to bypass sanctions.

Iran could get nuclear weapon within two years, intel assessments find
Anna Ahronheim/Jerusalem Post/February 13/19
Israeli intelligence assessment finds if Tehran leaves JCPOA it would have enough fissionable material within a year.
Iran is capable of producing a nuclear weapon within two years if it steps up work on its nuclear program and violates the 2015 deal with the West, according to a recent Israeli intelligence assessment.  Israel considers Iran’s nuclear program as the nation’s No. 1 concern, and, according to the assessment, if the Islamic Republic does decide to renege on the agreement, it would take it one year to produce enough fissionable material to make a nuclear bomb and then another year to actually make the weapon device. According to the assessment, Iran is contemplating how to deal with American sanctions in the hope that President Donald Trump will not be reelected in 2020 and a new and more pragmatic president would be elected, or to signal to the West that if the current status quo remains, it, too, will leave the agreement and return to enriching uranium. The assessment was released as a US-led summit against Iran opened in Warsaw, where Israel is expected to pressure the European Union against trying to prop up the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action following the American withdrawal last May. Under the JCPOA, Tehran is prohibited from transferring any weapons to third countries, but Iran, which possesses more than 1,000 short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, is suspected of continuing to smuggle weapons to countries and non-state actors such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Nevertheless, it is believed that Iran is continuing to develop the capabilities to produce a nuclear weapons arsenal as well as produce ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, despite new US sanctions placed on Iran meant to pressure Tehran over its military activity in the Middle East.
Iran has always denied seeking nuclear weapons, and agreed to curb its nuclear program in return for the lifting of sanctions as part of the JCPOA signed in 2015 between Iran and the US, Russia, China, the UK, France and Germany. While US sanctions have largely succeeded in convincing Western businesses to cut ties with Iran, countries such as France, Germany and Britain have begun non-dollar trade with Iran to avert US sanctions, to keep the deal with Iran alive. Though Iran’s economy has improved since the signing of the deal, the average Iranian has not felt it, with high unemployment and growing inflation due to the sanctions, with a rise in the prices of bananas over the past year by 165%, 50% in meat prices, 103% tomato prices, and 15% for housing. While the spark for the protests has been the economy, protesters have also taken to the street denouncing the Islamic Republic’s role in conflict zones such as Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza, burning pictures of the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, Maj.-Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who is in charge of Iran’s policy in those countries.

Israel might expand covert war against Iran beyond Syria in coming year
Anna Ahronheim/Jerusalem Post/February 13/19
A reduction has noted in weapons shipments, funds to Iran’s Syria project.
With Iran continuing to entrench itself throughout the Middle East, Israel might have to consider expanding it’s covert war against the Islamic Republic over the next year in order to prevent harm to the Jewish State. Israel has repeatedly warned that it would not allow Iran to establish a presence in Syria and has claimed responsibility for hundreds of airstrikes in the country aimed at preventing the transfer of weapons - such as surface-to-air missile kits - to Hezbollah in Lebanon as well as the entrenchment of Iranian forces on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights. Due to recent Israeli strikes, the defense establishment has noticed a reduction in Iranian weapons shipments through Syria, a decrease of funds available to Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Qud’s Force Commander Qassem Soleimani for his project in Syria and a decline in militia fighters in the war-torn country.
Iran has also began moving its assets from areas repeatedly struck by Israel to locations closer to the border with Iraq, specifically the T4 Airbase located between Homs and Palmyra. It is believed that Iran will attempt to entrench itself in Iraq, a mainly Shia Muslim country, as it did in Syria where they have managed to establish, shape and consolidate a solid parallel security structure in the country. Israel has until recently refrained from commenting on military activities beyond its borders, believing that by neither confirming or denying the strikes Iran would be less likely to retaliate, but in recent months officials have begun openly discussing the attacks. Before taking off for an international conference in Warsaw on Tuesday night, Prime Minister Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel was “operating every day, including yesterday, against Iran and its attempts to establish its presence in the area.” His comment referred to a strike the day before against Iranian positions in Syria’s Quinetra, right along the border with Israel. With the help of the Russians, Iranians and Hezbollah, Assad has regained control over the majority of Syria and is rebuilding his army, it is assumed to be focusing first on intelligence and air defense divisions which could pose a threat to Israeli aircraft.
According to Israeli intelligence assessments, the Syrian military might take part in a war against Israel if one were to break out along the northern border. While there are no reports of strikes in Iraq attributed to Israel, the Jewish State is reported to be behind an airstrike on the Syrian-Iraqi border last year near the town of Al-Bukamal which killed 22 members of a Shiite militia. In September, Reuters reported that Iran had transferred ballistic missiles to Shiite proxies in Iraq over the course of several months and that it is developing the capacity to build more there. The missiles that were said to have been transferred include the Fateh-110, Zolfaqar, and Zelzal types, which have ranges of 200-700 km allowing them to be able to threaten both Saudi Arabia and Israel. Iraq and Israel are officially in a state of war, and Iraqi forces have participated in the 1967 and 1973 wars against Israel. In 1981 Israel destroyed a nuclear reactor in Osirak and ten years later in 1991 troops belonging to Iraqi president Saddam Hussein Scud missiles into Israel. But Israeli strikes in Iraq could get complicated, with American forces deployed in the country working side-by-side by Iraqi troops and Iraqi troops working with the Hashd al-Shaabi (also known as Popular Mobilization Forces) militia fighters. The PMF, militias who were incorporated into Iraq’s security apparatus in 2016 to fight against the Islamic State group along with Iraqi and Kurdish forces, are directly financed and equipped by Iran.
While the war against the Islamic State in Iraq has been a success with the group’s territorial caliphate wiped from the map, if Iran turns it’s neighbor into a no-man’s land with missiles which can threaten the Jewish State, Israel will likely expand its operations

Israel Confirms Latest Strikes on Syria
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 13 February, 2019/Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed Tuesday that his country had carried out more air strikes against targets in Syria. Syrian regime forces had announced Monday that an Israeli drone had fired missiles near a demolished hospital and a military observation post in the southern Quneitra province. “We are operating every day, including yesterday, against Iran. All the time. Against Iran and against its attempt to entrench itself in the area,” Netanyahu told reporters before flying to Poland for a Middle East conference. A Syrian military source was quoted by state news agency SANA as saying that the “Israeli enemy” also hit several sites along border villages close to a 1974 demilitarized zone on the Golan frontier, which with Russian support, the regime regained control from opposition factions last year. Residents familiar with the area said that the sites targeted fall within the strategic area known as the “Triangle of Death” connecting the southern Damascus countryside with Daraa and Quneitra provinces. The area is a bastion of Iranian-backed militias led by Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Israel is trying to counter the influence carved out in Syria by Iran, which has supported Bashar Assad’s regime in the war that erupted in 2011. Israel has been increasingly open about carrying out air strikes in Syria with an election looming in April. Netanyahu has said in recent weeks that Israel has carried out hundreds of attacks in Syria over the past several years and would ramp up its fight following the planned withdrawal of US troops from the country. A senior Israeli official said in September Israel had carried out more than 200 attacks against Iranian targets in Syria in the last two years.

ISIS Defends Last Syria Redoubt, as Family Members Flee
Baghdad- Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 13 February, 2019/Radical fighters made a desperate last stand in eastern Syria on Wednesday, while their wives and children fled the final, blood-soaked implosion of the ISIS group's "caliphate".The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces on Saturday launched a final push to expel ISIS fighters from the sole remaining morsel of the proto-state they declared in 2014 across parts of Syria and Iraq. Thousands of people have flooded out of the so-called "Baghouz pocket" near the Iraqi border in recent days -- mostly women and children, but also suspected militants.
Several dozen people fled Baghouz on Wednesday afternoon, walking to an SDF-held position four kilometers (two miles) away from the village. As they approached, the SDF rushed down to filter out the men. They separated 15, all with long beards, and took them one by one behind a rock to search them. Afterwards, they loaded them into a truck to take them to a gathering point where coalition troops were present. In an open field serving as the main civilian reception location, about 300 women and children, almost all of them Iraqi, sat in small groups. After fleeing Baghouz on foot on Tuesday afternoon, most had spent the night out in the open. "I tried to go get a blanket for my kids but there weren't enough," said Umm Ayham, a young Syrian woman from the northern province of Raqqa. "Some people had lit a fire, burning plastic they found on the ground and baby diapers, so I went by it to get warm."
Retina scan
Hundreds of people fled the ISIS holdout in the night of Tuesday to Wednesday, SDF spokesman Mustefa Bali said. Inside on Wednesday, the Kurdish-led SDF fighters were advancing slowly against hundreds of militants. "We have retaken positions lost in a counterattack launched two days ago by ISIS. We have progressed and taken new positions," Bali said. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights also said the SDF fighters were making painstaking progress. "There are mines throughout the sector," said Rami Abdel Rahman, the head of the Britain-based war monitor. "The SDF are firing rockets," he said, and both sides were locked in heavy clashes on the edges of Baghouz village. Since December, more than 38,000 people, mostly wives and children of ISIS fighters, have fled into SDF-held areas, the Observatory says. That figure includes around 3,500 suspected militants detained by the SDF, according to the monitor. In SDF-held territory earlier Wednesday, two dozen members of the coalition forces searched men who had escaped. About five waited in line to be patted down, including one man in a rickety wheelchair. A coalition force member led one of the younger men to a subsequent point for a retina scan. Further on, those that had been searched were kneeling on the ground with coalition troops circling around them. The alliance launched a military offensive to expel ISIS from the eastern banks of the Euphrates in the oil-rich province of Deir Ezzor in September.
Since then, more than 1,300 militants, as well as 650 SDF fighters, have been killed, while more than 400 civilians have lost their lives, the Observatory says.
Foreign militants
Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi said on Tuesday that Iraq was willing to repatriate Iraqi ISIS members held by US-backed fighters in Syria as well as thousands of their family members. Abdul-Mahdi told reporters that families of those fighters will also be brought back and that tent settlements will be prepared to host them. Abdul-Mahdi's announcement came a week after the US called on other nations to repatriate and prosecute their citizens who traveled to Syria to fight with ISIS and who are now being held by Washington's local partners.Abdul-Mahdi's comments came after a meeting he held in Baghdad with acting US Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan. Shanahan on Tuesday made an unannounced visit to Baghdad. A senior Pentagon official told reporters traveling with Shanahan that Washington was pressing its allies to repatriate their nationals. The SDF say they detained more than 900 foreign fighters during their US-backed campaign against ISIS in northeastern Syria. US President Donald Trump on Monday said the coalition may declare victory over IS in Syria within days. A victory in Baghouz would allow the United States to withdraw all its 2,000 troops from Syria, as announced by Trump in December. The pullout announcement shocked Washington's allies, as well as US military commanders. In a report last week, the US Department of Defence warned that without sustained counterterrorism pressure, ISIS could resurge within months. Syria's Kurds hold hundreds of suspected foreign ISIS fighters and have long urged their home countries to take them back, but these have been reluctant. Syria's civil war has killed 360,000 people since it started in 2011 with the brutal repression of anti-government protests. It has since spiraled into a complex conflict involving world powers and militants.

Shanahan in Baghdad to Address Concerns over US Troops
Baghdad - Hamza Mustafa/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 13 February, 2019/Acting US defense chief Patrick Shanahan made a surprise visit to Baghdad on Tuesday, as several Iraqi parliamentary blocs have proposed a draft-law that would set a timetable for a US troop withdrawal from the country. "We are in Iraq at the invitation of the government and our interests are to build Iraqi security capability," Shanahan told reporters traveling with him on his first trip to Iraq. "I want to hear first-hand from them about concerns, the political dynamics that they are facing and then based on that we will obviously factor that into our planning,” Reuters quoted him as saying. Shanahan is the third high-ranking official to come to Baghdad after President Donald Trump’s visit to Al Asad Air Base in western Iraq last December and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit in January. Shanahan’s trip comes after Trump caused anger in Baghdad this month when he said it was important to keep a US military presence in Iraq so that Washington could keep a close eye on Iran. Several blocs in Iraq's parliament used the uproar to reiterate their demand that the US mission in Iraq be restricted and troop numbers reduced. In their first reaction to Shanahan’s visit, Iraqi parliament Speaker Mohamed al-Halbousi and the leader of the National Wisdom Movement in Iraq, Ammar al-Hakim, expressed rejection to the presence of foreign ground troops on Iraqi territories. A statement issued by Hakim’s press office said the two sides stressed it was important for the Iraqi government to clarify its position from the US presence in Iraq. The statement is a clear indication on the dispute among Iraq’s parliamentary blocs, with some calling for an unconditioned US pullout, while others preferring for American troops to remain in the country over fears of an ISIS comeback. The US has about 5,200 troops in Iraq as trainers and advisers to Iraqi security forces in their battle against insurgent elements of ISIS that once controlled large swaths of Iraqi territory. MP Siham al-Moussawi, who is a member of the Fatah Alliance which fully rejects the US presence in Iraq, told Asharq Al-Awsat that Shanahan’s visit to Baghdad “aims at pressuring some blocs and lawmakers not to adopt the draft-law on the withdrawal of foreign forces” from the country.

UAE Interior Minister: The People of Iran Deserve a Dignified Life, Tehran Must Abandon Delusions
Dubai – Mosaeed Al Zayani/ Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 13 February, 2019/UAEs’ General Sheikh Saif bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior, urged the Tehran regime to abandon its delusional of regional hegemony. The official blasted Iran’s coercive policy-- rooted in the oppressive history of the Persian Empire-- especially at a time the Iranian people are suffering instead of enjoying the dignified life they deserve. In a keynote session titled "Journey of Wisdom" during the 7th World Government Summit, the UAE Interior Minister said that his country has maintained a balance between power and tolerance as two sides of one coin. He added that the wisdom and future vision of His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, have strengthened the UAE’s journey and soft power through his projects and initiatives, and the world has attested the country’s pioneering, wisdom and future vision. During the second part of his speech, titled, "The UAE’s Wisdom," Sheikh Saif affirmed that wisdom combines goodness and positivity, and the Wise Man of the Arabs, the late Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, combined wisdom, justice and rational thinking, which have enabled the UAE to become a leading nation, through his legacy of goodness, love and peace that placed him in the hearts of everyone. Sheikh Saif mentioned examples of the UAE’s wisdom, which include its political wisdom and its long history in the region while highlighting the wisdom of Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed and his ability to solve regional conflicts with his wisdom and faith, and pointing out that Sheikh Mohamed’s policies attract good people and achieve advancement and international stature. During the next part of his speech, titled, “Wisdom of Balance between Strength and Tolerance,” Sheikh Saif stressed the importance of maintaining a balance between strength and tolerance because they are two sides of one coin, which is a form and reflection of wisdom while giving relevant examples from Arab history.
"It is wise to balance your defensive power, to protect your security and the security of your neighbors, and building your country on the principles of tolerance and peaceful coexistence," he stated. On economic development, Sheikh Saif said: “the economic wisdom lies in not standing in the way of success and progress for the better. He also noted that the UAE cherishes hosting 200 diverse nationalities living in harmony and peace according to their religion and culture. Calling diversity a source for strength, Shiekh Saif pointed out that UAE leadership had a vision anchored in human tolerance and coexistence.

Egypt Parliament to Vote on Extending President's Term
Cairo- Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 13 February, 2019/Egypt's Parliament began deliberations Wednesday over constitutional amendments that could allow President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi to stay in office till 2034 - 12 more years after his current, second term expires in 2022. Lawmakers are expected to vote later in the day or on Thursday, after which the text of the amendments would be finalized by a special legislative committee and sent back to the assembly for a final decision within two months. The 596-seat assembly, which is packed with Sissi's supporters, has already given its preliminary approval to the changes last week. The amendments are almost certain to be overwhelmingly approved by the legislature, but will also need to be put to a national referendum to become law. The referendum is likely to take place before the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which is expected to start in early May this year.
Parliament Speaker Ali Abdel-Al opened Wednesday's session, telling lawmakers in the packed chamber that there will be a "national dialogue" and that "all opinions and trends will be included in the discussions." The vote had initially been scheduled for next week, but was moved up. Sissi, who previously held the office of military chief, led the military's 2013 overthrow of Mohammed Morsi, after protests against his rule. Sissi was elected president the following year. Along with extending a president's term in office from four to six years, the amendments include a special article that applies only to Sissi and allows him to run for two more six-year terms after his current term expires in 2022. The amendments also envisage the office of one or two vice presidents, a revived Senate, and a 25 percent quota for women in parliament. They call for "adequate" representation for workers, farmers, young people and people with special needs in the legislature. The president would have the power to appoint top judges and bypass judiciary oversight in vetting draft legislation before it is voted into law. The amendments declare the country's military "guardian and protector" of the Egyptian state, democracy and the constitution, while also granting military courts wider jurisdiction in trying civilians.

Trump Mulling 'All Options', Warns Maduro against 'Terrible Mistake'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 13/19/ U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Venezuela's leftist leader Nicolas Maduro is "making a terrible mistake" by blocking U.S. humanitarian aid. Trump said it was "sad" that the oil-rich Latin American country is in "turmoil" and said Washington has still not ruled out sending troops to the region. "We look at all options," he said. "You'll see," he said when asked if thousands of U.S. troops could deploy. Trump was meeting with Colombian President Ivan Duque at the White House to discuss the crisis in Venezuela. Maduro accuses the United States of using the blocked aid shipments as part of a plot to overthrow his government.But Duque, whose country has taken in large numbers of Venezuelan refugees, said "obstructing the access of humanitarian aid is a crime against humanity."

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 13-14/19
Israeli Intelligenc Estimate: New Iranian threat from Iraq. Gaza escalates. Moscow jumps on Palestinian issue
من موقع دبيكا: المخابرات الإسرائيلية تقدر أن هناك خطر إيراني من العراق/غزة تصعد/وموسكو تدخل على خط المسألة الفلسطينية
Debeka File/February 13/19
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/72155/yossi-yehoshua-ynetnews-hezbollah-has-plans-for-israel-on-the-golan-%d9%8a%d9%88%d8%b3%d9%8a-%d9%8a%d9%87%d9%88%d8%b4%d9%88%d8%a7-%d9%85%d9%86-%d9%8a%d8%af%d8%b9%d9%88%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%88/
Iranian forces are moving back from Israel’s border to northern and eastern Syria and arming Shiite proxies with surface missiles. This is reported in the Israeli Military Intelligence (AMAN) Estimate 2019, laid before the government two weeks ago and divided into two sections: pre- and post-election. The document foresees heightened tensions on the Gaza and northern fronts in the coming months.
After the April 9 general election, the next government will have to take a stand on President Donald Trump’s ”Deal of the Century” for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a challenge which does not figure in any party campaign.
In the run-up to the election, AMAN predicts the following events:
The Gaza Strip will heat up. Already this week, thousands of Palestinians are gathering night after night on the Gaza border to attack Israeli troops with explosive devices and hand grenades. The explosions cause alarm in neighboring Israeli communities.
The northern front, including the Golan, will see escalating violence from across the Syrian border. The Iranian Al Qods Brigades and Hizballah will be choosing their moment to fire missiles into Israel, taking advantage of the Russian presence somewhat inhibiting Israeli payback.
Palestinian terrorists will raise the stakes in Judea and Samaria so as to cast a pall on Israel’s election, encouraged by Moscow’s first supportive intervention in the Palestinian arena. The first Palestinian unity conference is taking place this week with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in the chair. DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources report that the Palestinians reckon that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, when he arrives in the Russian capital on Feb. 21, will find in the Kremlin a newly friendly face for the Palestinian cause. Therefore, Iran and Syria won’t be the only items on the agenda of his talks with President Vladimir Putin.
The Intelligence Estimate points to changes in Iran’s Syrian deployment. Its forces are described as pulling away from proximity with Israel’s northern border and regrouping in northern and eastern Syria. This redeployment is cause for concern in Israel. Rather than being driven back under the pressure of Israel’s aerial and missile assaults, Tehran aims to take advantage of the coming withdrawal of US troops from Syria to extend its strategic depth into Iraq, from which Iranian missiles can reach Israel. The Iranians are expected to leave their Shiite militias behind for dealing with the Israel front and arm them with ground-to-ground, short-range ballistic missiles. Israel’s northern front is therefore not moving farther away, it is expanding into Iraq and, in addition to the rockets piled up by Hizballah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Israel is now faced with ballistic missiles from Iraq and close by.

Islam: The West’s “Most Formidable and Persistent Enemy”
Raymond Ibrahim/American Thinker/February 13/19
At the height of Western dominance over Islam in the early twentieth century, the European historian Hilaire Belloc made a remarkably prescient observation that may have seemed exaggerated at the time:
Millions of modern people of the white civilization—that is, the civilization of Europe and America—have forgotten all about Islam. They have never come in contact with it. They take for granted that it is decaying, and that, anyway, it is just a foreign religion which will not concern them. It is, as a fact, the most formidable and persistent enemy which our civilization has had, and may at any moment become as large a menace in the future as it has been in the past (from Belloc’s The Great Heresies, 1938, emphasis added).
Anyone who doubts that Islam has been “the most formidable and persistent enemy which our civilization has had,” should familiarize themselves with Islam’s long offensive record vis-à-vis the West. A succinct summary follows:
According to Islamic history, in 628, the Arabian founder of Islam, Muhammad, called on the Byzantine Emperor, Heraclius—the symbolic head of Christendom—to recant Christianity and embrace Islam. The emperor refused, jihad was declared, and the Arabs invaded Christian Syria, defeating the imperial army at the pivotal Battle of Yarmuk in 636 (see my MA thesis on this battle, which one prominent historian described as the world’s “most consequential”).
This victory enabled the Muslims to swarm in all directions, so that, less than a century later, they had conquered the greater, older, and richer part of Christendom, including Syria, Egypt, and North Africa.
Their drive into Europe from the east was repeatedly frustrated by the Walls of Constantinople; after the spectacularly failed siege of 717-718, many centuries would pass before any Muslim power thought to capture the imperial city. The Arabs did manage to invade Europe proper through and conquered Spain but were stopped at the Battle of Tours in 732 and eventually driven back south of the Pyrenees.
For more than two centuries thereafter, Europe continued to be pummeled by land and sea—untold thousands of Christians were enslaved and every Mediterranean island sacked—in the ongoing Muslim quest for booty and slaves, as what historians have dubbed “the Dark Ages” descended on the continent.
The vicissitudes of war ebbed and flowed—the Eastern Roman Empire (“Byzantium”) made a major comeback against Islam in the tenth century—though the border largely remained the same. This changed when the Turks, under the leadership of the Seljuk tribe, became the new standard bearers of jihad. They nearly annihilated eastern Anatolia, particularly Armenia and Georgia in the eleventh century and, after the Battle of Manzikert, 1071, overran Asia Minor.
By now, however, Western Europe’s military might had so matured that when the Pope called on the knights of Christendom to come to the aid of the Christian East, the First Crusade was born. Western Christians, led by the Franks, marched into the beast’s lair, defeated their adversaries in several encounters and managed to establish a firm presence in the Levant, including in Jerusalem, which they recaptured in 1099—only to lose it less than one hundred years later, in 1187, after the fateful Battle of Hattin. By 1297, the Crusader presence was eliminated from the Middle East.
But if it failed in the East, the Crusade succeeded in the West. A handful of years after the Muslim invasion and conquest of Spain around 711, fugitive Christians holed in the northern mountains of Asturia began the Reconquista; by 1085 it had proven effective enough to prompt two new Muslim invasions from Africa to counter it. Again, the ebb and flow of war dominated the landscape, but by 1212, at Las Navas de Tolosa, Spain’s indigenous Christians gave Islam its death-stroke, so that by 1252 it was confined to Granada at the southernmost tip of Iberia.
Around that same time, a violent but relatively short-lived Mongolian storm overwhelmed much of the east; both Christians (notably Russians) and Muslims were pummeled. A new Turkish dynasty arose from the Seljuk ashes: the Ottomans—whose identity revolved around the concept of jihad more than any of their predecessors—renewed Islam’s perennial war on Christendom. They managed to enter Eastern Europe, defeated a combined army of Crusaders at Nicopolis in 1396, took much of the Balkans, and crowned their achievement by fulfilling Muhammad’s desire of conquering Constantinople—and enslaving and raping thousands of its inhabitants in ways that ISIS tries to mimic—in 1453.
But mourning was soon tempered by joy: to the west, Spain finally conquered Granada in 1492, thereby snuffing out Islam as a political power; to the east, the most overlooked chapter of Muslim-Christian conflict was also coming to an end. The Russians, who had lived under distinctly Islamic rule for nearly two centuries, finally cast off the “Tatar Yoke” in 1480.
Even so, the Ottomans continued to be the scourge of Christendom; they continued making inroads into Europe—reaching but failing to capture Vienna in 1529—and sponsored the seaborne jihad originating from North Africa. While the Muslims largely failed to capture new European lands, Barbary pirates and Crimean slavers captured and sold approximately five million Europeans.
In 1683, over 200,000 Ottoman jihadis attempted to take Vienna again. Even though their failure marked the Ottoman Empire’s slow decline, Muslim slavers of the so-called Barbary States of North Africa continued to wreak havoc all along the coasts of Europe—reaching even Iceland.
The United States of America’s first war—which it fought before it could even elect its first president—was against these Islamic slavers. When Thomas Jefferson and John Adams asked Barbary’s ambassador why his countrymen were enslaving American sailors, the “ambassador answered us that it was founded on the laws of their Prophet, that it was written in their Koran, that … it was their right and duty to make war upon them [non-Muslims] wherever they could be found, and to make slaves of all they could take as prisoners.”
Europe’s final triumph over the Barbary States in the early 1800s ushered in the colonial era. By 1900, most of the Muslim world was under European control; by 1924, the more than 600 year-old Ottoman caliphate was abolished—not by Europeans but Muslim Turks, as the latter sought to emulate the successful ways of the former. Islam was viewed as a spent force and virtually forgotten, until recent times when it reemerged again.
Such has been the true and most “general” history between the Islamic and Western worlds.
The above map (© Sword and Scimitar) should give an idea of how far reaching and multi-tentacled the perennial jihad was. The darkest green shading represents Western/Christian nations that were permanently conquered by Islam; the lighter green shading represents those Western/Christian nations that were temporarily conquered by Islam (sometimes for many centuries, as in Spain, Russia, and the Balkans); green stripes represent areas that were raided, often repeatedly, though not necessarily annexed by Islam; the crossed swords mark the sites of the eight most landmark battles between Islam and the West.
From a macrocosmic perspective, the consequences of the historic jihad are even more profound than first appears. After writing, “For almost a thousand years, from the first Moorish landing in Spain [711] to the second Turkish siege of Vienna [1683], Europe was under constant threat from Islam,” Bernard Lewis elaborates:
All but the easternmost provinces of the Islamic realm had been taken from Christian rulers… North Africa, Egypt, Syria, even Persian-ruled Iraq, had been Christian countries, in which Christianity was older and more deeply rooted than in most of Europe. Their loss was sorely felt and heightened the fear that a similar fate was in store for Europe.
The “loss” of North Africa and the Middle East “was sorely felt” by premodern Europeans because they thought more along religious and civilizational lines than nationalist ones. And before Islam burst onto the scene, most of Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East were part of the same religio-civilizational block. As such, Islam did not merely invade and eventually get repulsed from Europe; rather, “Muslim armies conquered three-quarters [or 75 percent] of the Christian world,” to quote historian Thomas Madden.
Thus what is now called “the West” is actually the westernmost remnant of what was a much more extensive civilizational block that Islam permanently severed, thereby altering the course of “Western” history. And, once Muslims overran Africa and the Middle East, most of its Christian subjects, to evade fiscal and social oppression and join the winning team, converted to Islam, thereby perpetuating the cycle, as they became the new standard bearers of jihad against their former coreligionists north and west of the Mediterranean.
Such are the rarely noted ironies of history.
Returning to Hilaire Belloc, one can also see how an accurate understanding of true history—as opposed to an indoctrination in mainstream pseudo-histories—leads to an accurate prognosis of the future. For Belloc was not only correct about the past but the future as well: It [Islam] is, as a fact, the most formidable and persistent enemy which our civilization has had, and may at any moment become as large a menace in the future as it has been in the past…. The whole spiritual strength of Islam is still present in the masses of Syria and Anatolia, of the East Asian mountains, of Arabia, Egypt and North Africa. The final fruit of this tenacity, the second period of Islamic power, may be delayed —but I doubt whether it can be permanently postponed (emphasis added).
***Note: The historical portion of this article follows the outline of my recent book, Sword and Scimitar, which, in 352 pages copiously documents—including from little known or previously untranslated primary sources—the long and bloody history between Islam and the West, in the context of their eight most landmark battles. American Thinker reviews of the book can be read here and here.

In Finland, Money Can Buy You Happiness
Leonid Bershidsky/Bloomberg/February,13/19
The first results of Finland’s two-year experiment with a universal basic income are in, and if they’re confirmed by further research, they will probably hurt the unconditional income cause. The trial run showed that “money for nothing” makes people happier but doesn’t inspire them to find work any more than traditional unemployment benefits would.
The Finnish experiment, conducted in 2017 and 2018 by Kela, the country’s social insurance institution, was extremely important for world policy makers looking at variations of unconditional income as a way to offset job losses brought on by technological change. So far, the only other large-scale experiment in a wealthy Western nation that could have rivaled it took place in the Canadian province of Ontario; participants were recruited by April 2018 — but after a change of government, the trial is being wound down prematurely. This means the only solid data for researchers interested in how UBI works in industrialized nations are from Finland.
Perhaps the most important parameters for policy makers in those data concern the unconditional income’s effect on employment and on the government’s social spending. On both these counts, the Finnish experiment failed to produce a breakthrough for UBI proponents, in part because of its flawed design.
Finland paid 2,000 unemployment benefit recipients 560 euros ($635) a month without requiring them to go through the bureaucracy involved in applying for the traditional benefits and regardless of whether they landed a job. Given a median income of 2,900 euros, this is well below poverty level. But recipients didn’t have to give up other social benefits such as social assistance and housing and sickness allowances. They could even continue to apply for unemployment benefits if the amount due to them was higher than the basic income, a frequent situation for families with children. This worked to muddy the UBI’s effect: It didn’t really pull people out of dire poverty or rid them of the cumbersome welfare bureaucracy.
So far, Kela and a group of academics from Finnish universities studying the results of the experiment have only analyzed one full year of data. It’s possible that data for 2018 will alter their conclusions, but, based on 2017, UBI hasn’t increased people’s propensity to find work. People in the treatment group (UBI recipients) worked an average of 49.64 days in 2017, while people in the control group (those on traditional benefits) worked 49.25 days. There were no significant differences in their earnings, either.
The basic income recipients, on average, got 16,159 euros from the government in 2017, including the UBI; people in the control group received 11,337 euros. This means the government spent an additional 5,000 euros per experiment participant to get the same labor market outcome. Few policy makers would be inspired by such a result.
Other parts of the study are less discouraging. The Finnish researchers also did a survey of treatment and control group members at the end of 2018 to assess their subjective sense of well-being after two years of the experiment. The survey showed significant improvements in how people felt about their health and prospects if they received the unconditional income.
The UBI recipients’ self-reporting indicated they were more optimistic, more interested in finding full-time work, and less stressed than their peers on traditional unemployment benefits. They even showed more trust in politicians (although still less than the general population).
The survey results should probably be taken with a grain of salt because of the low response rate to the researchers’ questionnaire — just 31 percent of the treatment group and 20 percent in the control group. It’s possible that self-selection bias interfered: People who were relatively happy with the experiment responded in greater numbers than those who weren’t. For example, 30 percent of the respondents who had received a basic income were working at the time they were surveyed; only 25 percent of the control group respondents were employed.
Intuitively, however, it seems right that people who feel secure about even a small income display more optimism and report they’re functioning better. And some hard data confirm this, too: UBI recipients only claimed an average of 121 euros in sickness allowances in 2017, compared with 216 euros for non-recipients.
The question governments need to ask is whether a “soft” outcome — considerably happier, less depressed people at the bottom of the income ladder — is worth a significant increase in social system costs. Obviously, a decrease in jobless rates or a demonstrable improvement in the quality of jobs the unemployed eventually land would be a much stronger argument for an unconditional income. But in some advanced societies, more happiness also could be judged a desirable enough result to justify an increase in the tax burden.

Exclusive - The Kurds and the Iranian Revolution: An Endless Series of Tragedies
Erbil - Ihsan Aziz/Asharq Al Awsat/February, 13/19
When Iranians rose up against the Shah rule 40 years ago many hoped that the revolution would pave the way for fair rule that would provide the oppressed people with freedom, democracy and a dignified life.
They never imagined that clerics, hiding behind their religious garb, would impose a life that is no better than death. The revolution, according to many Iranians, transformed from a glimmer of hope and salvation to an endless series of tragedies.
After four decades, the majority of the Iranians have come to realize that the revolution did away with real men and that the high hopes they harbored were dashed by the policies of the current regime. The regime abused religious edicts, or fatwas, and Khomeini’s guidance to exploit the political vacuum and chaos caused by the revolution.
Politburo member of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI) Taimur Mustafaei said that the revolt was the fruit of the Iranian people’s struggle against the oppressive Shah regime.
“Khomeini and his officials altered its course, however, to establish a dictatorship, leaving the people in despair about ever achieving freedom, democracy and legitimate national rights,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.
“With time, the regime transformed the country into a large prison that is filled with terror, oppression and fear. Its failed policies have embroiled Iran in a stifling economic crisis that is weighing down on all the people,” he continued.
A vast majority of Iranians, especially Kurds, whom the regime forced out of Iran, believe that the Wilayet al-Faqih system was only good at oppression.
It is now time for change though, they said.
Mustafaei said that the PDKI realized the malicious intentions of the Khomeini regime during the early weeks of the revolution. He explained that the party had dispatched to Tehran a delegation to hold talks with the new regime figures about the Kurdish people’s rights.
These demands were met with crises and bloody clashes in liberated Kurdish regions that were incited by the regime in order to obstruct the talks, he revealed.
“Khomeini went to great lengths to harm the Kurdish people and undermine their rights. He started by creating incitement in several Kurdish cities, such as Naqadeh and Paveh, that led to the arrest of hundreds of unarmed civilians,” he remarked
“He followed this up with his notorious fatwa to his followers to wage jihad against the Kurds,” he said. “He incited them to commit massacres and mass executions against Muslim Kurds.”
“We were therefore, left with no other choice but resistance,” Mustafaei said.
The repercussions of Khomeini’s fatwa persist to this day despite the four decades that have passed. The Kurds are still victim of all forms of oppression, he stressed.
“They are treated by authorities as enemies and dozens of their youth are executed annually for the simple request of demanding their people’s rights,” he lamented.
There is hope, however, he added, saying that “all the factors needed to change the regime are now available.”
He cited the people’s anger against the regime and the protests they staged last year. He noted the regime’s failure in resolving the country’s crises, especially economic ones, as well as the world’s consensus that the regime must be removed.
The main obstacle in achieving change is the lack of a unified political opposition that shares a vision of Iran’s future in the post-Khomeini regime era, Mustafaei said.
He acknowledged that Iran has turned into a source of problems in the region and entire world. It appears that the United States is aware of this danger, but does not seem serious about toppling the regime.
Change should take place from within Iran with foreign support, he stressed. “We are ready to take part in any foreign or internal efforts to eliminate the current regime.”
“The new regime must be based on a federal democratic system otherwise the problems we are suffering from now will arise again in the future,” he warned.

From Warsaw to Tehran, Will Freedom Ring?
Dr. Walid Phares/AMCD/February 13/19
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/72139/dr-walid-phares-from-warsaw-to-tehran-will-freedom-ring%d8%af-%d9%88%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%af-%d9%81%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%b3-%d9%85%d9%86-%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%b3%d9%88-%d8%a5%d9%84%d9%89-%d8%b7%d9%87%d8%b1/
This week, the United States and Poland will jointly host a ministerial meeting to “promote peace and security in the Middle East” with a focus on Iran’s “destabilizing role in the region.” The international gathering to be held in Warsaw on February 13th and 14th has already been portrayed by Tehran as a US led effort to further isolate and crumble the Ayatollah regime. This first of its genre conference, aiming at mitigating both the Iranian regime and all Jihadists in the region, is important and must be successful. Here are my thoughts:
Need for internationalization
Months ago, I proposed via media and social media, both in the United States and the Middle East, that the next stage of pressures on the Iran regime should include internationalization of the response. My proposition was prompted by the Trump administration’s escalation of sanctions and the ongoing debate over the future of pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. My argument was that unless Washington musters a greater coalition to provoke change inside the country, sanctions won’t be enough to cause change. Economic sanctions need time to take effects and many players, including our own European partners, are working on circumventing them.
Poland’s role
In parallel, I was meeting with Polish officials during the Fall of 2018 to discuss new Polish and European policies to defend the small minorities in the Middle East, including Yazidis and Christians. One of the suggestions I made was to hold a conference on Middle East minorities in Warsaw. I argued that Poland’s experience with Soviet totalitarianism would provide insights and perspectives helpful against Jihadi totalitarians, ISIS and al Qaeda. From that angle, I suggested a conference on Middle East global issues, including security, civil societies and terrorism. I was glad to learn few weeks ago that the US and Poland agreed to hold such a conference in Warsaw, looking at the whole region.
Middle East and Iran
I had already argued that it would be preferable to design the summit as focusing on "Middle East Security, Stability, and Human Rights." Though the chief focus—particularly for the United States—would be containing the Iran regime and the threats it poses, the summit would also discuss and address various conflicts such as those in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Libya, as well as tensions and terrorism in Lebanon, Tunisia, and Egypt and Morocco. The summit would discuss the Palestinian-Israeli peace process and the Iran-Saudi and ongoing Turkish-Kurdish conflicts. In sum, it is of great importance that the Warsaw summit is perceived as an international platform, not only for discussion, but for assisting in solving the global crises in the Greater Middle East.
Strategic Messaging
It is important that the strategic messaging for the summit insists that more ideas be added to the existing ones so that the discussions are diversified—thus maintaining the theme of containing radical regime threats, including Iran, while still expanding the scope of the summit to cover a score of issues, including the question of civil societies, minorities, women and energy. I see the Warsaw meeting as a continuation of the Riyadh Summit of 2017. There needs to be a permanent forum tackling the crises of the Middle East. Warsaw is a perfect fit for this role
Participation
The US and Poland are well positioned to invite the largest possible number of governments to attend. Mobilizing Arab participation in the Warsaw Summit—particularly the countries of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, Bahrain, Tunisia, and Jordan—would supplement the strategic messaging of the gathering. As with the coalition to support the Venezuelan parliament, a coalition to contain Iran and counter extremism in the Middle East should be wide and include European Governments, the Arab Coalition, and as many countries as possible from Latin America, Africa and Asia.
Partnering with opposition
However, as I argued in my book The Lost Spring and many articles, it is essential that all international conferences dealing with Iran engage the Iranian opposition, both inside and outside the country. Just as Juan Guaido, the current transitional President of Venezuela, was reached out to by the US and the OAS, the Warsaw conference must identify and connect with moderate democratic leaders of the Iranian opposition.
After Riyadh, the Warsaw summit is another good idea. I hope that after Warsaw, Tehran will feel the winds of change blowing too.
*First published in History News Network.
*Dr. Walid Phares is Co-Secretary General of the Transatlantic Parliamentary Group (TAG), a former foreign policy advisor to Donald Trump and an author.

Analysis/Warsaw Summit Will Test U.S. Gamble on Israeli-Arab Pact Against Iran
تحليل لأمير تيبون من الهآرتس: قمة وارسو هي امتحان لمراهنة أميركا على قيام حلف إسرائيلي عربي ضد إيران
Amir Tibon/Haaretz/February 13/19
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/72127/amir-tibon-haaretz-warsaw-summit-will-test-u-s-gamble-on-israeli-arab-pact-against-iran-%d8%aa%d8%ad%d9%84%d9%8a%d9%84-%d9%84%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d8%aa%d9%8a%d8%a8%d9%88%d9%86-%d9%85%d9%86/
Experts agree that although relations between Israel and Arab Sunni states have improved in recent years, that doesn’t mean the U.S. peace plan has a big chance of succeeding
WASHINGTON - This week’s global summit in Warsaw will test the main pillar of the Trump administration’s policy in the Middle East: The belief that Israel and key Arab states can form an alliance against Iran, even when peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians seem more distant than ever.
According to the Foreign Ministry of Poland, which is hosting the event, at least 10 Arab countries will send representatives to Wednesday and Thursday's summit, called Ministerial to Promote a Future of Peace and Security in the Middle East. The countries expected to attend include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Bahrain. (The Palestinian Authority was invited but is not participating, and has in fact asked other Arab states to boycott the gathering.)
Israel will be represented by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. As for the United States, it will have a number of senior officials present, including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and President Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser, Jared Kushner.
The administration originally characterized the summit as focusing on Iran and the threats it poses to different countries in the region. That description caused some European countries – which are less hostile toward Iran than the Trump administration – to express skepticism about the event. Over time, the description shifted from focusing on Iran to a broader emphasis on peace, stability and security in the Middle East.
For the Trump administration, however, these two topics – stability in the Middle East and confronting Iran – are closely linked. The administration wants to bring Israel and the Sunni Arab states closer to each other and to see them working together against Iran and Hezbollah, two common enemies.
That is one of the main purposes of the administration’s long-gestating peace plan, which could be published after the upcoming Israeli election on April 9.
For years, Israel’s clandestine intelligence and security ties with these Sunni states were kept away from the public eye – mainly because Arab rulers worried about being seen as too close to Israel while the Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem continued to live under an Israeli military occupation, and those in Gaza continued to suffer from Israeli-implemented restrictions.
Yet over the past two years, the Trump administration has closely monitored what it sees as encouraging signs about an Arab willingness to publicly engage with Israel. These include Netanyahu’s visit to Oman last October; a series of tweets and statements by Bahraini officials in support of Israeli actions against Iran and Hezbollah; a statement by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that Israel has the right to exist; and two public meetings between Netanyahu and Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sissi.
At the same time, though, the official statements of all Arab governments have emphasized continued support for the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which calls for the creation of an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza with East Jerusalem as its capital.
That position is the complete opposite of Netanyahu’s right-wing government, and it will be a major surprise if the Trump administration’s peace plan is closer to the Arab Peace Initiative than to Netanyahu’s demands. Unless the Trump administration surprises all of the skeptics who believe its peace plan will be a softer version of the platform of Netanyahu's Likud party, it is all but certain the Palestinians will have an easy time portraying it as too tilted toward Israel, and therefore a “nonstarter” for peace talks.
The main question is whether any Arab countries will take a different position if the Palestinian Authority rejects the peace plan as biased and unfair. White House officials have told Haaretz on two separate occasions over the past year that the plan won’t be a “take it or leave it” document, but rather a potential basis for negotiations.
If Israel accepts that basis (which will probably require a different governing coalition than the outgoing religious, right-wing and pro-settler one) and the PA doesn't, what will the likes of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Egypt say?
While Kushner and Pompeo (together with Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, Jason Greenblatt) discuss the peace plan with Arab representatives in Warsaw, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will speak to Arab leaders around the region and hope to receive assurances that they won’t support it unless it meets the demands of the Arab Peace Initiative.
The last time the Trump administration tried to convince Arab countries to take a position more aligned with the United States than the Palestinians was last December during a UN vote on a resolution denouncing Hamas.
Greenblatt approached nine Arab countries and explained why it was important for them – as countries that suffer from terrorism and extremism – to support the resolution. Eventually, though, all nine voted against it and the resolution fell short of the supermajority needed to pass, to the disappointment of both the United States and Israel.
‘A bridge too far’
David Pollock, a former State Department official and currently a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, tells Haaretz that opinion polls across the Gulf states show a growing willingness to engage with Israel, especially on security issues. Pollock has run polls in several Gulf states through local polling organizations and says his numbers show a constant rise in positive views of Israel over the past five years. There is a clear majority in these countries who support the idea that Arab countries should help promote peace between Israel and the Palestinians, he adds.
However, like most other experts and former U.S. officials who have dealt with the issue, Pollock is skeptical that Arab countries will move further in their relationship with the Jewish state while there is no progress on the Israeli-Palestinian front.
“It’s not as easy as it was in the past for the Palestinians to be spoilers in this relationship, but they can still do it,” he says. “When there is an escalation between Israel and the Palestinians, the level of public sympathy toward the Palestinians in most Arab countries gets larger.”
Expecting Arab countries to adopt the Trump peace plan despite Palestinian opposition to it would be a mistake, according to Pollock. “It could be a bridge too far,” he says. “A safer move would be asking them not to directly oppose it – and perhaps hinting at the importance of conducting negotiations.”
One theory that has been suggested by experts and former officials is that Saudi Arabia could perhaps break away from its traditional positions on the issue thanks to the wide support it received from Trump, Pompeo and Kushner in the aftermath of the murder of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul last October. Former Republican Sen. Bob Corker, who chaired the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations until January, said last year: “A lot of the Middle East peace plan is based upon their support. They feel like they have a lot of equity here.”
Corker was quoted in a Washington Post story on how the Trump administration doubted the Saudi account of Khashoggi’s murder but still defended the monarchy as an “incredible ally.” Tamara Cofman Wittes, a former State Department official and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, wrote in reply to Corker’s statement last October: “That the Trump Admin would roll over for this Saudi ‘investigation’ […] just for the sake of a ‘peace plan’ that is DOA … would be an astonishing political own-goal.”
The summit in Warsaw this week and the diplomacy surrounding it in the region will offer an opportunity for the Trump administration to see whether its “gamble” on Saudi Arabia and Israeli-Arab cooperation against Iran will prove itself.
Even this will only be a partial test of the administration’s worldview, though. The real test will arrive if and when the plan itself is published – and so far there isn’t even a definitive date for its release.
https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-warsaw-summit-will-test-u-s-gamble-on-israeli-arab-pact-against-iran-1.6932889

When Will the World's Largest Sunni Religious Institution Disavow Colonization?
Saied Shoaaib/Gatestone Institute/February 13/19
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13538/al-azhar-islam-colonialism
It is difficult to find today Christian clergy proud of their colonial past. In contrast, many Muslims consider Islamic colonialism and imperialism sacred and part of their religion.
To be sure, the West has committed sins, but it has apologized for them. Meanwhile, Sheikh Ahmed Al-Tayeb, the current Grand Imam of Al-Azhar, says that Islam and Muslims are completely innocent, and that the sole culprit is the West. His position totally ignores the Islamic colonial empire that occupied many countries, looting their wealth and committing massacres.
Sheikh Al-Tayeb not only failed to apologize for the atrocities listed above, but here are a few examples of what is being taught at the university he heads...
The Islamic Umayyad dynasty initiated the invasion of Spain; the Ottoman Turks followed to conquer European lands, including Bulgaria, Serbia, Macedonia, Greece, Montenegro, Croatia, Kosovo, Hungary, Albania, Georgia and the Balkans. They nearly occupied Paris and Vienna, as well. Pictured: The painting "The Turkish Siege of Vienna," in the Vienna Museum. (Image source: Tyssil/Wikimedia Commons)
In Cairo, Egypt, in October, at an international symposium entitled, "Islam and the West: Diversity and Integration," Sheikh Ahmed Al-Tayeb -- the current Grand Imam of Al-Azhar University, the world's largest Sunni religious institution -- pointed to Andalusia (Muslim-ruled Spain) as a model for the peaceful coexistence between Islam, Christianity and Judaism. It was a peculiar choice: Andalusia is not an example of cooperation; it is an example of the Arab colonization of Europe.
Those who occupied Andalusia were the Umayyad branch of the Quraysh tribe (the tribe of the Prophet Muhammad) from the Arabian Peninsula. They initiated the invasion; the Ottoman Turks followed to conquer European lands, including Bulgaria, Serbia, Macedonia, Greece, Montenegro, Croatia, Kosovo, Hungary, Albania, Georgia and the Balkans. They nearly occupied Paris and Vienna, as well.
During the symposium, Sheikh Al-Tayeb, who delivered the keynote address, said that his goal was to build bridges between Islam and the West.
However, if that was his goal, he would have been better off apologizing for the occupation of this part of Europe by Muslim Arabs, who had not faced any Western aggression at the time.
The Vatican, at the symposium, apologized and asked God's forgiveness for the mistakes of the Church over the past 2,000 years, including the wars that were launched in the name of Christianity after the collapse of the Islamic Ottoman colonial empire. There was also a clear apology for the Crusades and for Europe's attempt to reach Jerusalem and its environs -- land that was being taken from Christians and occupied by the Arabs of the Arabian Peninsula, whom the Christians then tried to repel; then later again by those who succeeded them.
It is difficult to find today Christian clergy proud of their colonial past. In contrast, many Muslims consider Islamic colonialism and imperialism a liberation of sacred land and part of their religion. There even seems to be a strong stream of Islam that believes that conquering the lands of others is the path to restoring the power and well-being of Muslims.
It therefore would have been appropriate for Al-Tayeb to use the platform of a symposium on the relations between Islam and the West to apologize for -- rather than to ignore -- the crimes of the Arab-Muslim empire, to "build the bridges" he discussed. Although it is true that in 2016, he stated that "there is not any text in the Qur'an about the Caliphate (the Islamic Empire), and some of Islamic caliphate regimes were not fair," he has never condemned the act of Islamic occupation or its crimes. Instead, he said, "There is no doubt that the caliphate is a beautiful dream that achieves the unity of the Muslims and guarantees their strength."
In other words, instead of using a conference on "Islam and the West" to take responsibility for any past conquests, it was used to accuse the West of being to blame for the East-West conflict.
According to Al-Tayeb, in what sounds like a psychological projection, the West is a "global force filled with arrogance and [claims] the right to control others and harness them to achieve their own interests, out of the feeling that it is a pure civilization [with] the absolute right to lead all peoples." This, he said, "is the pretext invoked by the old colonialist onslaught on other peoples and their wealth."
To be sure, the West has committed sins, but it apologizes for them. Meanwhile, the sheikh of Al-Azhar claims that Islam and Muslims are completely innocent, and that the sole culprit is the West. It is a position that completely ignores the Islamic colonial empire that occupied many countries, looting their wealth and committing massacres. Since the seventh century, and not even including southeast Asia, Muslims have invaded and now control the former great Byzantine Empire (now Turkey, where after the genocide of the Armenians and the Pontic Greeks in the last century there are few remaining Christians today), all of North Africa and the Middle East, Greece, Hungary, the Balkans, northern Cyprus and Spain. The genocide of the Armenians in the early twentieth century, for instance, claimed the lives of between one million and one and a half million innocent people.
In the Muslim conquests of India – between the 12th and 16th centuries -- cities were destroyed, people were slaughtered, and those women and children who survived were turned into slaves.
In the 1821 Constantinople Massacre, the Ottomans conducted mass executions, destroyed churches and looted the property of the Greek population.
Sheikh Al-Tayeb not only failed to apologize for the atrocities above, but here are a few examples of what is being taught at the university he heads:
Jews and Christians... are the enemies of God.
Fighting infidels is a duty for every wise, true, free and capable man.
It is permissible to fight infidels without warning and without inviting them to the religion of Islam.
The building of churches is prohibited in Dar al-Islam [lands occupied by Muslims]. Christians wear a different garment and are prevented from riding horses. Christian women are distinguished by wearing an iron collar around their necks.
Today, the West's main problem with many Islamic organizations -- both armed and unarmed -- is that many still dream of, and plan to implement, an "Islamic state" and subsequently the "Islamic colonial empire," or caliphate, across the globe. Perhaps an apology from the sheikh of Al-Azhar might be seen as a denial of the religious foundation of such an empire. Al-Azhar has 2,383 Egyptian students and 40,000 students from different Islamic countries. The institution trains and dispatches hundreds of imams to teach Islam everywhere in the world. In addition, all major Sunni religious educational institutions, such as Dar al-Ulum in India and the Islamic University of Pakistan, follow the teachings of Al-Azhar.
As long as the sheikh of Al-Azhar continues to herald, rather than disavow, the conquests that took place under the Islamic empire, his institution and those affected by it will not "build bridges" but rather continue to heap blame on the West -- which, passively and oddly, continues to accept it.
Saied Shoaaib is a Muslim writer and researcher, specializing in Islamic movements. He is so-author of the recently published book, Submission: The Danger of Political Islam to Canada – With a Warning to America, co-authored with Tom Quiggin, Tahir Gora, Jonathon Cotler, and Rick Gill with a foreword by Raheel Raza. The book is available on Amazon.com in both paperback and Kindle versions.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Germany: Number of Foreign-Born Prison Inmates at Record High
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/February 13/19
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13711/germany-immigrants-prisons
North Rhine-Westphalia once had 114 prison imams, but now has only 25. The drop occurred after German authorities carried out security checks on prison imams and discovered that 97 imams were Turkish civil servants whose salaries were paid for by the Turkish government. Turkey refused to allow the imams to be interviewed by German officials.
In an article entitled, "German Becomes a Foreign Language in Many Prisons," the Berliner Morgenpost reported on the growing number of conflicts between German prison officers and foreign inmates because of communication barriers
German authorities are also reporting an increase in inmate attacks on prison staff. In North Rhine-Westphalia, for example, since 2016, the number of assaults on prison staff have more than doubled.
A surge in foreign prison inmates in Germany has led to overcrowded prisons and a shortage of staff. Prisons in Baden-Württemberg and North Rhine-Westphalia are currently at 100% capacity. Pictured: Remscheid Prison in Remscheid, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany.
The proportion of foreign-born inmates in German prisons is now at a record high, according to a new survey of the justice ministries in Germany's 16 federal states. In Berlin and Hamburg, for example, more than 50% of inmates are now from abroad, according to the report, which also revealed a spike in the number of Islamists in the German prison system. The data, compiled by the newspaper Rheinische Post, shows that the surge of foreign-born inmates began in 2015, when Chancellor Angela Merkel allowed into Germany more than a million mostly unvetted migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
All of Germany's federal states reported a "very strong increase" of foreign and stateless prisoners in the last three to five years, according to the paper, although a definitive nationwide total is difficult to calculate because of differences in the way federal states compile statistics.
Since 2016, for example, in the western federal states the proportion of foreign inmates increased to 61% from 55% in Hamburg; to 51% from 43% in Berlin; to 48% from 44% in Baden-Württemberg; to 41% from 35% in Bremen; to 36% from 33% in North Rhine-Westphalia; to 34% from 28% in Schleswig-Holstein; to 33% from 29% in Lower Saxony; to 30% from 26% in Rhineland-Palatinate; to 27% from 24% in Saarland. In Hesse, the proportion increased to 44.6%, up slightly from 44.1% three years ago. In Bavaria, the proportion rose to 45% from 31% since 2012.
The number of foreign inmates in the eastern federal states is also on the rise. In Saxony, the number of foreign prisoners has more than doubled since 2016. Most foreign inmates there are from Poland, Tunisia, Libya, the Czech Republic and Georgia. Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania now has 160 foreign inmates from 66 different countries.
German authorities are also reporting an increase in the number of Muslims in German prisons. The proportion of Muslims in German prisons is now significantly higher than their share of the total population.
With the recent mass influx of migrants, the Muslim population of Germany now numbers around six million, or 7% of Germany's overall population of 82 million. By contrast, roughly 20% of the 65,000 inmates in the German prison system are Muslim, according to data collected from regional justice ministries.
Muslim comprise 29% of the inmates in Bremen; 28% in Hamburg; 27% in Hesse (although in some prisons there, 40% of all inmates attend Friday prayers); 26% in Baden-Württemberg; 21% in North Rhine-Westphalia; 20% in Berlin; and 18% in Bavaria.
At least 300 hardcore Islamists are serving time in the German prison system, according to data from regional justice ministries. Another 350 Islamists have outstanding arrest warrants. Most of the Islamist inmates are in Hesse, Bavaria, North Rhine-Westphalia and Berlin. Many are being housed in separate facilities, but there are concerns that those who are not may radicalize other inmates.
In Hesse, for example, the number of Islamists has more than tripled since 2013, while in Baden-Württemberg, the number of Islamist inmates has more than doubled since 2016. "The number of prisoners who have become conspicuous because of their Islamist sentiment has risen sharply in the past two years," said Guido Wolf, the Minister of Justice for Baden-Württemberg. "This presents new challenges for our prison officials, who are already exposed to great burdens. We are doing everything we can to detect signs of Islamist radicalization at an early stage and resolutely to oppose it."
Between 10% and 15% of Muslim inmates in German prisons are at risk of radicalization, according to Husamuddin Meyer, a German convert to Sufi Islam who now works as a cleric in the North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) prison system. He said that the German prison system needs more imams, whom he claims would work to counteract radicalization.
NRW once had 114 prison imams, but now has only 25. The drop occurred after German authorities carried out security checks on prison imams and discovered that 97 imams were Turkish civil servants whose salaries were paid for by the Turkish government. Turkey refused to allow the imams to be interviewed by German officials. "The requirement that these employees should undergo a renewed security check is inappropriate and wrong," the Turkish consulate said. NRW Minister of Justice Peter Biesenbach responded: "The medium-term goal must be to organize religious and pastoral care independent of the Turkish state."In Hesse, meanwhile, the Justice Ministry suspended a prison imam because of his ties to the Muslim Brotherhood.
The surge in foreign inmates has led to overcrowded prisons and a shortage of staff. Prisons in Baden-Württemberg and North Rhine-Westphalia are currently at 100% capacity. In an effort to ease the overcrowding in NRW, more than 500 prisoners recently were released on a "Christmas amnesty." Prisons in Bavaria, Berlin, Bremen, Hamburg and Rhineland-Palatinate are at 90% capacity.
Meanwhile, NRW prison staff logged more than 500,000 hours of overtime during 2018, according to an internal judiciary report leaked to the Rheinische Post. The NRW prison system requires at least 500 new workers to ease staff shortages. Despite good pay and benefits, however, there few applicants due to the physical and emotional strains of the work.
In addition to the staff shortages, many prison facilities are dilapidated. More than 500 inmates at a prison in Münster, for example, were evacuated and transferred elsewhere because the building was in danger of collapsing. In Cologne, 100 detention centers currently are closed due to asbestos exposure. At least three billion euros are needed to rehabilitate ailing institutions just in NRW.
In an article entitled, "German Becomes a Foreign Language in Many Prisons," the Berliner Morgenpost reported on the growing number of conflicts between German prison officers and foreign inmates because of communication barriers. "The need for language courses and interpreting services is rising, as is competence in dealing with other cultures," said Dieter Lauinger, the Minister of Justice for Thuringia.
The GG/BO prisoners' union (Gefangenen-Gewerkschaft / Bundesweite Organisation) has called for prison managers to hire interpreters who can give orders and issue instructions in the mother tongues of the foreign inmates. Although some federal states do use interpreters, the cost is often prohibitive.
German authorities are also reporting an increase in inmate attacks on prison staff. The Prison Staff Union (Bund der Strafvollzugsbediensteten Deutschlands, BSBD) tallied 550 such "special occurrences" in 2017. In North Rhine-Westphalia, for example, since 2016, the number of assaults on prison staff have more than doubled."The numbers are a reflection of our society," said Peter Brock, chairman of the BSBD union. "Insults, threats and attacks are part of everyday life."
*Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Hamas, Islamic Jihad War Crimes Against Children and Women
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/February 13/19
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13710/hamas-war-crimes-children
It is worth noting that the Hamas and Islamic Jihad members who were killed while participating in the violence near the Gaza-Israel border did not come there dressed in military uniforms or carrying their weapons. Instead, the Hamas and Islamic Jihad men participated in the weekly protests dressed in civilian clothes. They pretended they were ordinary and innocent civilians protesting against the economic crisis in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.
While they are in Cairo, the Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders continue to send thousands of women and children to engage in violent attacks on Israeli soldiers. These leaders do not care about the safety or welfare of their women and children. On the contrary; the more dead women and children, the better. That way, they can blame Israel for killing innocent civilians and incite more Palestinians to join the jihad against Jews.
Those who are encouraging women and children to take part in a violent confrontation with the Israeli army should be held accountable for war crimes. It is time for the international community to call on Hamas and Islamic Jihad and the other terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip to stop hiding behind women and children and to stop using them as human shields in their jihad to eliminate Israel.
When Hamas launched its weekly demonstrations along the border between the Gaza Strip and Israel 10 months ago, it first sent its men and their family members to participate in the protests. A few weeks later, however, Hamas instructed its men to stay away from the border after many were detected and killed by the Israeli army. Most of the Hamas men who were killed during the violence belonged to the group's military wing, Izaddin al-Qassam. Others belonged to the military wing of another terrorist group, Islamic Jihad.
It is worth noting that the Hamas and Islamic Jihad members who were killed while participating in the violence near the Gaza-Israel border did not come there dressed in military uniforms or carrying their weapons. Instead, the Hamas and Islamic Jihad men participated in the weekly protests dressed in civilian clothes. They pretended they were ordinary and innocent civilians protesting against the economic crisis in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.
Later, however, Hamas was forced to admit that dozens of its members were killed in the first three months of the protests near the border. Salah Bardaweel, a senior Hamas official in the Gaza Strip, revealed in May 2018 that at least 50 Hamas members were killed during the violent demonstrations, which had begun two months earlier.
Hamas was also forced to admit that most of the victims were "fighters" after their identities were revealed by their families and by hospitals in the Gaza Strip. Hamas was probably hoping that the identities of its men would remain a secret so that the group and other Palestinians could accuse Israel of targeting innocent and defenseless civilians.
After the Hamas ploy was uncovered, the group and its supporters in the Gaza Strip resorted to a different tactic: sending children and women to the Gaza-Israel border. This, of course, is an old tactic that Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist groups have been using for decades. The Palestinian terrorist leaders know that when women and children get wounded and killed near the border, that draws the attention of most foreign journalists and international human rights organizations. Hamas's goal: to depict Israel as a state that deliberately targets Palestinian women and children.
In recent weeks, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other Palestinian terrorist groups have been sending thousands of women and children to the border with Israel to participate in the violence. The groups have been encouraging the children and women to throw rocks, explosive devices and firebombs at Israeli soldiers. They have also been encouraging the women and children to try to infiltrate the border by damaging the security fence.
The latest victim of Hamas's cynical exploitation and brainwashing of children took place February 8, during violent demonstrations along the Gaza-Israel border. Hassan Shalabi, a 14-year-old boy from the Gaza Strip, was among thousands of Palestinian children and women who were dispatched by Hamas to the border to participate in violent attacks against Israeli soldiers.
Like the thousands of other Palestinians sent to the border, Shalabi was told by Hamas that the goal of the so-called "March of Return" is to pave the way for millions of Palestinians to move into Israel. The "March of Return" is not about improving the living conditions of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. It is called the "March of Return" because its main objective is to force Israel to allow Palestinian refugees and their descendants to enter and turn it into a country with a Muslim majority where Jews would be allowed to live only as a tiny minority under Islamic rule.
Like most Palestinian groups and leaders, Hamas lied to the boy when it told him that throwing stones and firebombs at Israeli soldiers would facilitate the "right of return" for millions of Palestinians supposedly to return to their homes from which they fled after five Arab armies attacked on the newly born State of Israel on May 14, 1948.
The boy believed that by trying to destroy the security fence and infiltrate Israel, he and his friends were helping Palestinians achieve their "right of return."
The naive women and children did not know that any army that is confronted with thousands of rioters trying to infiltrate the border would be forced to use all available means to defend its soldiers and civilians. One can only imagine what would have happened had thousands of Palestinian rioters managed to cross the border and reach one of the nearby Israeli towns.
Last week, a 43-year-old woman, Amal al-Taramsi, also fell victim to the Palestinian terrorist groups' exploitation of women and children. The woman, who was among thousands of Palestinians dispatched by Hamas to the border to engage in a violent confrontation with Israeli soldiers, was also killed when rioters tried to infiltrate the security fence.
Palestinians in the Gaza Strip said they have noticed in recent months that Hamas and Islamic Jihad were no longer sending their men to the sites of the clashes. The terrorists prefer to keep a safe distance from the view of the Israeli soldiers, evidently preferring to hide behind women and children. The leaders of the terrorists are also cowards. They often briefly show up at the site of the demonstrations to give statements to the journalists before going back into hiding in their villas and offices.
When Shalabi was killed last Friday, the leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad were visiting Cairo, where they always stay in five-star hotels. They are in Cairo to talk with Egyptian intelligence officials about reaching understandings with Israel concerning a long-term truce along the Israel-Gaza border. While they are in Cairo, the Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders continue to send thousands of women and children to engage in violent attacks on Israeli soldiers. These leaders do not care about the safety or welfare of their women and children. On the contrary; the more dead women and children, the better. That way, they can blame Israel for killing innocent civilians and incite more Palestinians to join the jihad against Jews.
Needless to say, these leaders always make sure that their own wives and children stay away from the combat zone.
What is disturbing is not that Hamas and Islamic Jihad are exploiting women and children as human shields. Rather, what is outrageous is the continued silence of the media and the international community. International human rights organizations and journalists are falling into the terrorists' trap by parroting the blood libel that Israel is "deliberately targeting innocent civilians, especially women and children." If anyone is to be condemned, it is those who are sending women and children to die on the border with Israel.
Those who are encouraging women and children to take part in a violent confrontation with the Israeli army should be held accountable for war crimes. It is time for the international community to call on Hamas and Islamic Jihad and the other terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip to stop hiding behind women and children and to stop using them as human shields in their jihad to eliminate Israel.
*Bassam Tawil is an Arab Muslim based in the Middle East.
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