LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
February 09/19

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Those who were not my people I will call my people, and her who was not beloved I will call beloved
Letter to the Romans 09/19-29: “You will say to me then, ‘Why then does he still find fault? For who can resist his will?’ But who indeed are you, a human being, to argue with God? Will what is moulded say to the one who moulds it, ‘Why have you made me like this?’Has the potter no right over the clay, to make out of the same lump one object for special use and another for ordinary use? What if God, desiring to show his wrath and to make known his power, has endured with much patience the objects of wrath that are made for destruction; and what if he has done so in order to make known the riches of his glory for the objects of mercy, which he has prepared beforehand for glory including us whom he has called, not from the Jews only but also from the Gentiles? As indeed he says in Hosea, ‘Those who were not my people I will call “my people”, and her who was not beloved I will call “beloved”. ’‘And in the very place where it was said to them, “You are not my people”, there they shall be called children of the living God.’ And Isaiah cries out concerning Israel, ‘Though the number of the children of Israel were like the sand of the sea, only a remnant of them will be saved; for the Lord will execute his sentence on the earth quickly and decisively.’And as Isaiah predicted, ‘If the Lord of hosts had not left survivors to us, we would have fared like Sodom and been made like Gomorrah.”’

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on February 08-09/19
Iran to Propose Providing Air Defense System to Lebanese Army
EU Supports Lebanon's 'Only Legitimate Force'
Lebanon: Growing Political Dispute Over Refugees
Lebanese father sets himself on fire over unpaid school fees
Maronite Patriarch Calls for Revolution amid Rampant Corruption
Ghosn ready to repay cost of Versailles wedding: lawyer
Bassil chairs workshop for enhancing Lebanon's economic relations with Diaspora
Berri meets Future Movement delegation, Zasypkin
Kataeb Leader Hands Aoun Invite to Party Congress
Najarian: Kataeb to Remain Steadfast in Face of Hardships
Zarif to Visit Beirut
Gharib: Coordination with Syria Obligatory on Refugees Return
Hariri to Visit UAE for Summit
Saniora Warns Hizbullah over Coming Period
Sethrida Geagea to Sue Jamil al-Sayyed
Hariri’s Focus: Economy Not Hezbollah

Litles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 08-09/19
Joint Statement on Syria
US vows to remain ‘relentless’ to deter Iran missile program
Jubeir Says Saudi Leadership a 'Red Line'
New Pressure over Khashoggi Death, Trump Silent at Deadline
Italy Deputy PM Defends French Visit as Ties Hit Post-War Low
Maduro Vows to Block 'Fake' Aid 'Spectacle'
French Minister in Iraq Warns 'Work Not Over' in IS Fight
Ready to bring down Netanyahu, ex-general stirs hope of change
Report: US Military to Withdraw from Syria in April
Cavusoglu: US-Turkish Task Force to Coordinate Withdrawal from Syria
Report: Baghdadi Fled Coup Attempt by ISIS Militants
Iran Political Parties Shaky as Revolution Turns 40
Warsaw Summit to Set Up 6 Committees to Deal with Iran’s Behavior
Leaked Files Reveal Iran's Crackdown on Journalists
Iran’s Second Attempt to Launch Satellite Fails
Egypt’s Army Chief Lauds Anti-Terror Efforts in Sinai
Al-Azhar's Imam Warns of 'Malicious Terrorist Agenda' to Weaken Palestinian Cause
Nuclear First Strike Should Still Be an Option for America

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 08-09/19
Hariri’s Focus: Economy Not Hezbollah/Ghassan Michel Rubeiz/Lobe Log/February 08/19
Has Turkish President Erdoğan Distanced Himself from the Muslim Brotherhood/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/February 08/19
Get China and Russia Out of Venezuela - and the Western Hemisphere/Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/February 08/19
Are the US and Other Democracies in Trouble/Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/February 08/19
Syria: French Count Returns as Russian Apparatchik/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 08/19
Analysis/Russia May Call Shots in Syria, but U.S. Mideast Dominance Remains Unchallenged/Amos Harel/Haaretz/February 08/19
Turkey and Jordan united by regional crises/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/February 08/19

Latest LCCC English Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on February 08-09/19
Iran to Propose Providing Air Defense System to Lebanese Army
Beirut - Khalil Fuleihan/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 8 February, 2019/Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif is expected to pay a two-day visit to Lebanon later this week to meet with senior officials, as well as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The trip comes in wake of Nasrallah’s recent announcement that Tehran was ready to offer Lebanon arms and funds. He did not disclose further details about the proposal. A diplomatic source said that Zarif would discuss with officials a proposal to provide the Lebanese army with an Iranian air defense system, which according to Nasrallah would make the military “the strongest in the region.” The minister is scheduled to hold talks on Sunday and Monday with President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri, Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil. The source said that Zarif will also explain to officials Tehran’s stance on its conflict with the United States, saying that any American attack on Iranian positions will incur a violent retaliation. Nasrallah had said: “We will be involved in any war on Iran.” Asharq Al-Awsat approached Defense Minister Elias Bou Saab to comment on Nasrallah’s speech. He revealed that he had not yet had the time to address it because he had just returned to Lebanon from a trip to Washington. “At any rate,” he added, “I support anyone who helps in arming the military if it is needed.” Iran had originally officially proposed arming the military in 2014 during a trip by then Defense Minister Samir Moqbel to Tehran where he visited weapons factories. Iranian officials had suggested that the minister list the needs of the Lebanese military so that they could be provided by Tehran. Indeed, Moqbel presented a report on the matter to cabinet, but discussions over the issue came to halt after the US threatened to halt its armament and training to the Lebanese army. An informed minister expected that Beirut will take its time in responding to Zarif’s proposal should he present it. He may, on the other hand, renew his country’s offer to provide Lebanon will electrical power. Nasrallah had addressed this issue during a speech Wednesday when he revealed that Tehran could provide Lebanon with its power needs in less than a year and at low costs.

EU Supports Lebanon's 'Only Legitimate Force'
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 8 February, 2019/The European Union called on Lebanon to begin implementation of the reforms adopted by the CEDRE Conference, to maintain the dissociation policy and to commit to all UN resolutions. Minister Saad al-Hariri received on Thursday at the Grand Serail the head of the EU delegation to Lebanon, Ambassador Christina Lassen, and the ambassadors of EU member states in Lebanon. According to a statement issued by the EU following the meeting, the delegation congratulated Hariri on the formation of the new government, emphasizing the need to “resume the efforts to strengthen state institutions to ensure governance and reaffirm the independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity and exclusive authority of the Lebanese State.”“The European Union is standing ready to provide support to handle these challenges,” the statement read. The European diplomats also urged the government to start implementing the reforms stipulated by the CEDRE Conference, pledging “large-scale support if necessary measures are taken.” Acknowledging “Lebanon’s extraordinary and exceptional effort in hosting more than 1 million refugees,” the EU stressed the need to “work together for an informed discussion regarding the return of Syrian refugees to their home country, which is the ultimate objective.”The EU urged the new government to maintain its policy of dissociation from regional conflicts and to fulfill the implementation of the UN Security Council resolutions. “Lebanon’s stability remains of paramount importance to the European Union. Therefore, we encourage a renewed commitment of the Council of Ministers on disassociation from any regional conflicts and wars and from internal affairs of Arab countries. It is crucial that Lebanon continues to fully implement its international obligations outlined in the relevant UN Security Council resolutions,” according to the statement. The EU also stressed its recognition of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) as “the only legitimate armed forces of Lebanon, as enshrined in the Lebanese constitution and in the Taif agreement.”“The European Union continues its support to the LAF and to implement our commitments undertaken at the Rome II conference… and encourages the Government of Lebanon to resume a national dialogue for a National Defense Strategy,” it noted.

Lebanon: Growing Political Dispute Over Refugees
Beirut - Caroline Akoum/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 8 February, 2019/The controversial issue of Syrian refugees has returned to the spotlight in Lebanon after a member of the Lebanese Democratic Party, a close ally of the Syrian regime, was tasked with heading the ministry concerned with the affairs of the displaced. The first political figure warning from the gravity of the situation was former MP and head of the Progressive Socialist Party Walid Jumblat. “We will not give up on protecting the refugees and we will not be dragged into the pro-Syria camp's wishes to send them to the holocaust and torture in Syria,” Jumblat said a few days ago. Following Jumblat’s statements, former Minister of the Displaced Moeen Merehbi refused to attend the handover ceremony, saying such a move would be tantamount to putting the fate of the refugees in the hands of a Syrian regime ally. In the newly formed 30-member cabinet, the Ministry of Refugee Affairs was handed to Saleh Al-Gharib, a representative of LDP Chairman Talal Arslan, who is Jumblat’s rival in the Druze community and a close ally of Syria. Therefore, the Lebanese government’s management of Syrian refugee affairs in Lebanon will now shift from the hands of the Mustaqbal Movement to the allies of the Syrian regime in Lebanon. Gharib told Asharq Al-Awsat that “coordination with Syria is mandatory for any solution to the file of the displaced,” while respecting the Russian initiative and coordination with the international community. A ministerial committee tasked with drafting the new government’s ministerial statement concluded its mission on Thursday. Parliament should convene next week to discuss and approve this statement. After reading its final draft, Information Minister Jamal Jarrah said all Lebanese agree on the return of the refugees to safe areas. “We did not mention the words political solution or voluntary return. We said the return to safe areas, and we adopted some wordings that will be approved by the Council of Ministers and we will talk about them in due time,” the minister told reporters. Last month, the Arab Economic and Social Development Summit held in Beirut issued a statement calling on the international community to support Arab countries hosting Syrian refugees and encourage Syrian refugees to return to their country.

Lebanese father sets himself on fire over unpaid school fees
Agencies/BEIRUT: A Lebanese man set himself on fire in a schoolyard in Bkeftine in northern Lebanon after a dispute over unpaid tuition fees. George Zureik doused himself in gasoline and set himself alight following a meeting on Thursday with administrators at his daughter’s private school. The father of two died before he could be taken to hospital. Zureik is believed to have asked the school for documents to transfer his daughter to a semi-free public institution, but was refused because of outstanding tuition fees. He had previously transferred his other daughter from the same school to a public facility. Zureik’s death sparked angry responses on social media with many comments critical of high school fees and Lebanon’s worsening economic situation. MPs from North Lebanon joined the online protests, describing Zureik as “a martyr of taxes and the high cost of living.”
MP Sami Gemayel said Zureik was “a martyr to irresponsibility and lack of accountability,” while MP Michel Moawad said: “His suicide is an unprecedented Lebanese tragedy that reflects the worsening economic and social conditions in the country.” The school administration denied responsibility for the incident and said in a statement that “due to the deceased father’s economic situation, the school had shown sympathy since his two children enrolled in 2014/2015 and exempted him from paying fees except for transportation, stationary and extracurricular activities.”However, Lebanon’s Ministry of Education has announced an investigation into the circumstances of the incident. Education Minister Akram Shahib said that public schools in the country this year have accepted thousands of students who were transferred from private schools because of the tough economic conditions. The minister said he will ensure Zureik’s children continue their education and will provide them with the necessary scholarships. “I hope that this painful incident will be an incentive for the government to make improving the difficult economic and living conditions a priority,” he said. Economist Louis Hobeika described the incident as “a sad situation.”“The Ministry of Labor has estimated the unemployment rate in Lebanon at 25 percent — and it might be higher,” he said. “We have noticed a fall in the number of parents who can pay university tuition fees, prompting students to work at restaurants and other places. But the problem with schools is that parents are the only ones who can pay for their children’s tuition.”

Maronite Patriarch Calls for Revolution amid Rampant Corruption
Kataeb.org/Friday 08th February 2019/Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rahi blasted the destructive practices of the political class, saying that the alarming economic reports on Lebanon prove the presence of rampant corruption. "Throughout history, Lebanon has never reached this level of corruption. There are corrupt officials who are legitimizing corruption and giving the people scraps to keep them silent," Al-Rahi said in an interview with Al-Joumhouria newspaper. "The public debt is nearing the $100 billion threshold and no one is moving a finger to deal with it, as if the goal is to leave the State go into bankruptcy and end the Lebanese entity." "What is needed is a popular revolution against corruption and the corrupt officials, or else the country will collapse," he warned. The patriarch said that the new government has tremendous challenges to deal with, demanding that the ministers would manage public funds properly and work on eradicating corruption and stopping squandering in their ministries. Al-Rahi voiced utter rejection of plans to introduce a tripartite power system in Lebanon, assuring that the Maronite Patriarchate will stand against such dubious and malicious schemes. On the eve of Saint Maroun Day, the patriarch affirmed that the Maronite are still holding fast to their land despite hardships, dismissing fears over the Christians' presence in Lebanon. "We are the guardians of this land. There is no power in the world that can uproot us," he stressed.

Ghosn ready to repay cost of Versailles wedding: lawyer
Fri 08 Feb 2019/NNA - Detained former Renault boss Carlos Ghosn is ready to repay a 50,000-euro ($57,000) bill for his wedding party at the Palace of Versailles which was waived under a sponsorship deal with the French car group, his lawyer said Friday.
Renault said Thursday that it would report the incident to prosecutors after learning that the famed chateau on the outskirts of Paris had waived its usual rental fee under a sponsorship deal signed in 2016. Ghosn's lawyer in France, Jean-Yves Le Borgne, told AFP that the executive "stands ready" to repay the money, adding that his client was "not aware he owed it because he had not been billed". "He thought it was free," Le Borgne added. The waived bill could amount to the misuse of company resources, as well as tax evasion, if the benefit-in-kind was not declared to French authorities. Ghosn's tenure as CEO has come under the microscope since his arrest last November in Japan on charges he under-reported millions of dollars in pay as head of Nissan, Renault's alliance partner. His subsequent indictment on three charges of financial misconduct has led to renewed scrutiny of his management and lifestyle at both companies while he sits in a Tokyo jail awaiting trial. Ghosn and his second wife Carole threw a Marie Antoinette-themed dinner and party at the former royal residence at Versailles, complete with entertainers in period costumes, on October 8, 2016. In a statement, the Chateau de Versailles said Renault had signed a 2.3-million-euro sponsorship deal with the palace in June 2016, a few months before Ghosn's wedding. Under the terms of the deal, Renault could benefit in return from Versailles access and other services worth a maximum 25 percent of the deal, in this case around 575,000 euros, it said.—France24

Bassil chairs workshop for enhancing Lebanon's economic relations with Diaspora
Fri 08 Feb 2019/NNA - Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil on Friday chaired a workshop to discuss means of enhancing economic and trade relations between Lebanon and the Lebanese emigrants across the world, held at the Royal Hotel in Dbayeh. The workshop was attended by newly appointed Minister of Economy and Trade, Mansour Bteish, and Minister of State for Foreign Trade Affairs Hassan Murad, in addition to the new economic attachés appointed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for the first time. The Director of Economic Affairs at the Foreign Ministry, Ambassador Bilal Qabalan, said that "the consecration of economic diplomacy requires a clear strategy at the level of missions abroad taking into account the internal conditions, national potentials and partnership with the Lebanese emigrants." In his delivered word, Minister Bassil underscored the paramount importance of cooperation between the ministries of foreign affairs, economy and foreign trade affairs in boosting the Lebanese economy and achieving its advancement, notably the increase of Lebanese exports. Addressing the newly appointed economic attachés, Bassil the significant role they shall play in boosting Lebanon's foreign trade.

Berri meets Future Movement delegation, Zasypkin
Fri 08 Feb 2019/NNA - House Speaker Nabih Berri on Friday received at his Ain El Tineh residence, a delegation from the Future Movement command, including the Movement's Secretary General Ahmad Hariri, MP Nazih Najem, Fadi Tamim and Jalal Kabrit. Speaking on emerging, Ahmad Hariri said the purpose of the visit was to extend to the Speaker an invitation to the February 14 commemoration ceremony, in the name of Prime Minister Saad Hariri. Hariri added that the visit was a chance to exchange with the Speaker viewpoints over the current matters in Lebanon notably in the wake of the new government formation.  Hariri underlined that the current difficult stage can be overcome through serious actions including law endorsement and combating corruption. On the other hand, Speaker Berri met with the Russian Ambassador to Lebanon, Alexander Zasypkin, with whom he discussed most recent developments and the bilateral relations. This afternoon, Berri welcomed in Ain El Tineh head of the "Popular" bloc Miriam Skaff.

Kataeb Leader Hands Aoun Invite to Party Congress
Kataeb.org/Friday 08th February 2019/A Kataeb delegation on Friday met with President Michel Aoun at the Baabda Palace to hand him an invitation to the opening session of the party's congress. The delegation, headed by the Kataeb leader Samy Gemayel, included former Minister Alain Hakim and the party's Secretary-General Nazar Najarian. The Kataeb party is set to hold its 31st congress on February 15 to 17.

Najarian: Kataeb to Remain Steadfast in Face of Hardships
Kataeb.org/Friday 08th February 2019/Kataeb's Secretary-General Nazar Najarian assured the party's steadfastness in the face of dubious campaigns and plots to isolate it, stressing the incontestable link that binds the Kataeb and Lebanon together. "Lebanon will never be the same if the Kataeb ceases to exist. Lebanon is strong as long as the Kataeb is strong," he told Addiyar newspaper. Asked about the Kataeb's current political positioning, Najarian stressed that it was never the party's target to be part of the ruling authority, noting that it has rather played the role of a support force for the State and its institutions, as well as for the president of the Republic. "We are a party that has values which, sometimes, may have caused us political losses. However, we don't mind losing posts because principles are more important to us."Najarian echoed Kataeb leader Samy Gemayel's stance on the party's role as an opposition force, stressing that it will deal objectively with the new government. "We will praise it whenever good things are made, and oppose it whenever shady deals and corruption are suspected," he pointed out. Najarian stressed upon the significant importance of the Kataeb's upcoming 31st congress, saying that it will herald the start of a new phase in the party. I promise the Kataeb partisans that they will witness the beginning of the renewal of the party they have always loved and sacrificed for its sake," he assured. Najarian refuted claims about the dismissal of MP Nadim Gemayel, saying that such thing is totally out of question.

Zarif to Visit Beirut
Naharnet/February 08/19/Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Jawad Zarif is expected to visit Beirut to meet with senior Lebanese officials, media reports said. Zarif will reportedly arrive on Sunday, but will hold his meetings with the officials on Monday, they said. His two-day visit comes after the formation of Lebanon’s government.

Gharib: Coordination with Syria Obligatory on Refugees Return
Naharnet/February 08/19/State Minister for Refugee Affairs Saleh al-Gharib said that coordination between Lebanon and Syria on the return of refugees is “compulsory,” the Saudi Asharq al-Awsat daily reported on Friday. “Coordination between Lebanon and Syria is a compulsory path to return the refugees back to their homeland,” Gharib told the newspaper. He said he had asked for the inclusion of a phrase stating “coordination with the Syrian state” in the government’s Policy Statement -- approved by the Council of Ministers on Thursday-- but was rejected by several ministers. While acknowledging that he is not fully acquainted with the file so far, he confirmed in a statement to the newspaper that to manage the file, it would be “necessary to coordinate with Syria in line with the Russian initiative, and to communicate with the international community.” Gharib added: “The humanitarian situation of these people remains a priority. Our goal is to ensure the comfort of displaced people living in difficult conditions in Lebanon.”Lebanese parties are divided over the controversial file of refugees and whether a coordination with the Syrian government is best for the country to facilitate their return. March 8 alliance camp believes “direct dialogue” between the Lebanese and Syrian governments is the only means to address the issue. Meanwhile, March 14 alliance including support the immediate return of the displaced on condition it is a safe one.

Hariri to Visit UAE for Summit
Naharnet/February 08/19/Prime Minister Saad Hariri is bound to travel to the UAE over the weekend to participate in the World Government Summit in Dubai, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Friday. The two-day visit will be an occasion for the Premier to discuss with his counterparts participating in the three-day forum, several files related to Lebanon and the region. Lebanon’s parliament is expected to hold confidence sessions Tuesday and Wednesday for Hariri’s newly formed government. The World Government Summit is an annual event held in Dubai, UAE. It brings together leaders in government for a global dialogue about governmental process and policies with a focus on the issues of futurism, technology and innovation, as well as other topics.

Saniora Warns Hizbullah over Coming Period
Naharnet/February 08/19/Ex-PM Fouad Saniora on Friday warned Hizbullah to be “more prudent and aware of the nature of the coming period.”“There is no doubt that Hizbullah had started its work for the sake of liberating Lebanon from Israeli occupation, but since the year 2000, Hizbullah's weapons have been directed towards the inside and are tampering with the domestic balances,” Saniora said in an interview with the Anatolia news agency in Turkey on the sidelines of his participation in the 22nd Eurasian Economic Summit. “This has affected the state's role and prestige, but we hope Hizbullah will be more prudent and aware of the nature of the coming period, and the pressures that Lebanon might face,” the former premier added. “Hizbullah should abide by what it has pledged to commit to, which is the dissociation policy, which means that Lebanon should not interfere in the affairs of others and should not send forces from Lebanon into Syria under any slogan nor interfere in the internal affairs of a number of Arab countries,” Saniora went on to say. He added that Hizbullah and its regional backer Iran should be very careful that their stances “do not lead to further conflict between Lebanon and the international legitimacy.”

Child Found Hanged in Refugees Encampment
Naharnet/February 08/19/A 12-year old child was found hanged from a rope inside a tent for Syrian refugees in the town of Ibl al-Saqi, in Marjayoun district, south east Lebanon, the National News Agency reported on Friday. The child, Syrian, identified by his initials as M.H. was found in a Syrian refugee encampment of Marj al-Khouj, said NNA. He was rushed to a hospital in Marjayoun but died shortly after.

Sethrida Geagea to Sue Jamil al-Sayyed
Naharnet/February 08/19/Lebanese Forces bloc MP Sethrida Geagea on Friday announced that she intends to file a lawsuit against MP Jamil al-Sayyed, who was Lebanon's General Security chief between 1998 and 2005. “I deeply regret the lack of morals of some people, such as Maj. Gen. Jamil al-Sayyed. I deeply regret Maj. Gen. al-Sayyed's insolence when he was asked by a journalist about the fate of our comrade Ramzi Irani and he answered: 'Ask Mrs. Sethrida and the Yassouh al-Malak group!'”“Maj. Gen. al-Sayyed was a general director of General Security in Lebanon at the time, but in practice he was the chief of the country's entire security... whereas I, Sethrida Geagea, was under semi-house arrest. I was at my home in Yassouh al-Malak under strict surveillance and round-the-clock pursuit,” she said in a statement. She added that she intends to sue al-Sayyed on charges of “criminal defamation.” Ramzi Irani, 36, was a well-known Lebanese Forces student representative at the Lebanese University in Beirut. He was abducted and later found killed in 2002, following a series of events marking the eighth anniversary of the imprisonment of LF leader Samir Geagea.

Hariri’s Focus: Economy Not Hezbollah
غسان ميشال ربيز: تركيز الحريري هو على الإقتصاد وليس على حزب الله
Ghassan Michel Rubeiz/Lobe Log/February 08/19
After a nine-month deadlock, the Lebanese have a new but predictable cabinet of ministers. Rotation of leadership is rare in the Middle East. Both Prime Minister Saad Hariri (a pro-Saudi Sunnite leader) and Gebran Bassil (the pro-Hezbollah foreign minister) were part of the previous cabinet.
Nepotism is an endemic problem in Lebanon. Saad Hariri replaced his father Rafic Hariri as the leader of the Sunni community when the latter was assassinated in 2005. Bassil is the son-in-law of President Michel Aoun. Aoun’s second son-in-law is the chief of the armed forces. This government is, in other words, old wine in new jugs.
There is a notable exception, however. Four women with impressive backgrounds are members of the new cabinet, and they are holding important portfolios.
Critics claim that the government will be dominated by Hezbollah. This is not the case. Only three ministers out of 30 are from Hezbollah, and eight are sympathetic to what they call the “resistance.” True, many in Lebanon consider this movement merely a “Shiite militia,” not a “resistance.” But the United States and Israel consider Hezbollah a “terrorist group” to be sanctioned and eliminated at all costs.
Regardless of what Hezbollah stands for, its electoral bloc won 70 percent of the parliamentary seats of last year’s national election. This bloc represents Muslims of all backgrounds and a sizable section of the Christian community.
Prime Minister Hariri and President Aoun proudly describe this cabinet as a “national unity” government. A “unity” government in this case implies a balance of party power, proportional sectarian representation, and a many-sided foreign policy. For better or worse, Prime Minister Hariri serves the interests of Saudi Arabia and Western powers while Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri does the same for Iran and Syria.
High on the domestic agenda of the new cabinet is reduction of public spending and provision of essential public services. Hariri has been warned by international donors and global credit-rating authorities that the national debt is dangerously high: $84 billion or 150 percent of GDP. Fighting corruption is also a priority. The latter is a tall order.
The prime minister has promised to initiate radical political reform and has promoted “solidarity” to avoid the impact of “regional tension.” In this case, “regional tension” is code for the explosive conflict between Saudi Arabia (and its allies) and Iran over Hezbollah’s ascendancy in Beirut and its military role in Syria.The Lebanese have thought hard and long about how to live with Hezbollah as a “state within a state.” Finding no solution to the overwhelming threats their country faces—refugees, the possible return of civil war, the Islamic State, Israel’s recurrent incursions—the Lebanese have partially adapted to the bitter status quo. Hariri’s previous government officially endorsed Hezbollah in its policy statement in 2016: “the Lebanese people have the right to resist Israeli occupation, repel its aggressions and regain all occupied (Lebanese) lands.” Hariri will show the same degree of tolerance for Hezbollah in the coming policy statement, to be approved soon by the new parliament.
In his new provocative book The New Rules of War, Sean McFate reports that 70 states have learned to live with militias of one sort or another in a new era of “durable disorder.” As McFate points out, the Middle East is fertile ground for many such non-state entities. As a result of this widening turmoil, countries in the region may tacitly adapt to Hezbollah. Out of desperation, Saudi Arabia is now more worried about Yemen’s protracted war on its borders than it is about the civil war in Syria or Lebanon’s internal politics. The reopening of the UAE embassy in Damascus is one of many signs of this regional trend of adaptation to the new situation in Syria and Lebanon. The significant latitude of freedom that Riyadh recently gave to Hariri in negotiating with Hezbollah to form his cabinet may be another sign of this trend.
For Lebanon, the road to normalization is filled with landmines. Opposition to Hezbollah and its Iranian ally is growing in Israel, in the U.S. Congress, and within the Trump administration. The State Department has been closely monitoring the formation of the Lebanese government out of a deep concern over Hezbollah’s role. Immediately after the cabinet was announced, Washington sent a mixed message to President Aoun: greetings accompanied by words of “regret” about Hezbollah’s participation in the government. Washington has warned Hezbollah not to “divert resources” to its own constituencies from the three ministries it “controls,” particularly the Ministry of Health. But this kind of bullying has not proven successful in other realms of U.S. foreign policy under Trump.
Despite the complications ahead, the Lebanese are much better off with a new government. The new cabinet will not be earth-shaking. Its focus must be on the economy, particularly the national debt and efficient provision of electric power. A stable Lebanon would attract tourists and create jobs. And if the four women in the cabinet are successful, Lebanon will send a strong message about women’s empowerment to the region.
Hezbollah’s leadership is smart enough to keep the delicate balance of power among the three main religious communities, a balance without which Lebanon cannot survive. In a world of “durable disorder,” the coexistence of states and sub-states is the norm rather than the exception. Sadly, in a post-Arab Spring Middle East, pure state sovereignty is a shrinking privilege. In this context, Hariri would be best to focus on the economy.
**Ghassan Rubeiz is an Arab-American writer, journalist, and commentator on issues of development, peace, and justice. He is the former Middle East Secretary of the Geneva-based World Council of Churches.

Latest LCCC English Miscellaneous Reports & News published on February 08-09/19
Joint Statement on Syria
US Department Of State/Office of the Spokesperson
Washington, DC
February 6, 2019
We, the Foreign Ministers and representatives of Egypt, France, Germany, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America, met today in Washington to continue our work in support of the UN’s efforts to achieve a political solution to the conflict in Syria on the basis of UN Security Council Resolution 2254. here is no military solution for Syria and no alternative to a political solution, thus there is a concerted need for diplomacy and international political will to end the Syrian conflict and alleviate the continued suffering of the Syrian people. We affirm in the strongest terms that those who seek to destabilize the region or seek a military solution will only succeed in increasing the risk of a dangerous escalation and wider conflagration in the region. We are determined to focus our efforts and move forward with a political solution consistent with UN Security Council Resolution 2254.
We reiterate our support for the United Nations and UN Special Envoy for Syria Pedersen’s efforts. We underscore the Office of the UN Special Envoy’s clear mandate from the Secretary-General and the UN Security Council to move forward with these objectives and encourage all sides to engage substantively to end the Syrian conflict.

US vows to remain ‘relentless’ to deter Iran missile program
AFP/February 08/19/WASHINGTON: The United States on Thursday vowed to remain "relentless" in pressuring Iran to deter its missile program after the country unveiled a new ballistic weapon days after testing a cruise missile. Iran's Revolutionary Guards unveiled a new ballistic missile with a range of 1,000 kilometres (620 miles), their official news agency Sepah News reported. The move was the latest show of military might by the country as it celebrates the 40th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution at a time of heightened tensions with the United States. "Iran's blatant disregard for international norms must be addressed," State Department deputy spokesman Robert Palladino said in a statement. "We must bring back tougher international restrictions to deter Iran's missile program," he added. "The United States will continue to be relentless in building support around the world to confront the Iranian regime's reckless ballistic missile activity, and we will continue to impose sufficient pressure on the regime so that it changes its malign behavior - including by fully implementing all of our sanctions." Tehran reined in most of its nuclear program under a landmark 2015 deal with major powers but has kept up development of its ballistic missile technology. President Donald Trump pulled the US out of the nuclear accord in May and reimposed sanctions on Iran, citing the program among its reasons. "Iran's latest missile launch again proves the Iran deal is doing nothing to stop Iran's missile program," Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted late Thursday. Iran and the other signatories have stuck by the 2015 agreement, although some European governments have demanded an addition to address Tehran's ballistic missile program and its intervention in regional conflicts. Meanwhile, UN Security Council Resolution 2231 - adopted just after the nuclear deal - calls on Iran "not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons". Tehran insists that its missile development program is "purely defensive" and compliant with the resolution.

Jubeir Says Saudi Leadership a 'Red Line'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 08/19/ Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was "not involved" in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and blaming him would be crossing "a red line," Saudi Arabia's minister of state for foreign affairs said Friday.
"For anyone to think that they can dictate what we should do, what our leadership should do, is preposterous," Minister Adel al-Jubeir told reporters in Washington, where many U.S. lawmakers have stated they believe Prince Mohammed is responsible for Khashoggi's killing last year at a Saudi consulate in Istanbul. "Our leadership is a red line," al-Jubeir added.

New Pressure over Khashoggi Death, Trump Silent at Deadline
President Donald Trump appeared prepared to ignore the U.S. Congress' Friday deadline to determine who ordered the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi amid new revelations that Saudi Arabia's crown prince spoke of threatening the journalist with a "bullet."With pressure mounting in Washington and Riyadh, the US president theoretically had until Friday to designate those responsible for the murder of Khashoggi, who was strangled and dismembered by Saudi agents in the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul on October 2. The deadline was imposed by Democratic and Republican senators, who wrote the president on October 10 calling for an investigation into the apparent extra-judicial killing. Under an existing human rights accountability law the letter gives the president 120 days to designate and punish those responsible. But no definitive action was expected Friday from the administration. The State Department said Thursday that Washington had already taken action over Khashoggi's killing. A department spokesman pointed to last year's revocation of visas for nearly two dozen Saudi officials and the freezing of assets of 17 others after Khashoggi's murder. Some members of the U.S. Congress have publicly stated that they suspect the powerful Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was directly responsible for the killing, based on the CIA's conclusions. The murder was met with international outrage and considerably hurt the image of the crown prince. In December, the Senate, controlled by Trump's Republican Party, unanimously adopted a resolution naming the crown prince "responsible" for the slaying. The Trump administration claims it has no compelling evidence of the direct involvement of the young and powerful Saudi leader, although the senators -- briefed by intelligence leaders behind closed doors -- stressed they remained convinced that the prince known as "MBS" was responsible. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo raised Khashoggi's killing among other issues during a meeting Thursday with Adel al-Jubeir, the Saudi minister of state for foreign affairs, according to the State Department. Al-Jubeir reiterated Friday that the prince was not involved in the murder and blaming him would be crossing a "red line.""For anyone to think that they can dictate what we should do, what our leadership should do, is preposterous," al-Jubeir told reporters. "Our leadership is a red line."
New revelations
Trump has publicly said that he is not concerned whether Prince Mohammed was involved, saying the Saudi alliance benefits Washington due to the kingdom's major purchases of weapons and its hostility to regional rival Iran. The deadline coincides with new embarrassing developments for the prince. The New York Times, citing officials who had seen US intelligence, said that Prince Mohammed had warned in an intercepted conversation to an aide in 2017 that he would go after Khashoggi "with a bullet" if he did not return to Saudi Arabia from the United States. U.S. intelligence understood that the ambitious 33-year-old heir apparent was ready to kill the journalist, although he may not have literally meant to shoot him, according to the newspaper. Special U.N. rapporteur Agnes Callamard said Thursday after a visit to Turkey that the killing of Khashoggi, who had written critical pieces on Saudi Arabia in The Washington Post, had been "planned and perpetrated" by Saudi officials. In light of the revelations, Khashoggi's Turkish fiancee said Friday she hoped pressure from U.S. lawmakers would encourage the Trump administration to take a tougher stance on the killing. Speaking at a press conference in Istanbul, Hatice Cengiz left the door open to a meeting with Trump if certain conditions were met, a softening of her position in December when she rejected an invitation from the U.S. president. "A visit to the United States could take place in March," Cengiz said, adding she hoped Trump would have a change of "attitude" about the murder. "I have hope, not necessarily regarding Trump, but about the fact that the new Congress will follow this case more closely," she said.

Italy Deputy PM Defends French Visit as Ties Hit Post-War Low
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 08/19/Italy's deputy prime minister on Friday defended his unannounced trip to meet with anti-government protesters in France this week, which has sparked fury in Paris and the biggest diplomatic crisis between the allies since World War II. Luigi Di Maio accused French governments on both the left and right of pursuing "ultraliberal" policies that have "increased citizens' insecurity and sharply reduced their spending power" in a letter to French daily Le Monde on Friday. "This is why I wanted to meet with 'yellow vest' representatives... because I don't believe that Europe's political future lies with parties on the right or left, or with so-called 'new' parties that in reality follow tradition," he said. The latter reference was a dig at Macron's new centrist Republic on the Move party, which was formed by the 41-year-old French leader in 2016. "We have never stopped extending a hand to France," Di Maio added at a campaign event later Friday in Roccaraso, Italy. "But if extending a hand means not being able to talk with any political force besides Republic on the Move, then I think this is a mistake."Di Maio's meeting with candidates in the upcoming European Parliament elections was the latest in a string of slights in a row between Italy's populist leaders and President Emmanuel Macron. The surprise trip drew a sharp rebuke from Paris, which on Thursday recalled its ambassador to Rome -- a move not seen between the two neighbors since the war when Italy invaded. "He will return to Italy. We're not suspending diplomatic relations with Italy," a senior French diplomat told AFP on Friday. But he warned that "there could still be difficult moments ahead in the French-Italian relationship."
'Playtime is over'
The escalating war of words began last year after Di Maio's Five Star Movement and Salvini's far-right League won elections and formed a populist and euroskeptic government. When Italy began preventing charity rescue boats with migrants on board from docking at Italian ports, Macron blasted the government's "cynicism and irresponsibility" and then compared the rise of far-right nationalism in Europe to leprosy. With the European Parliament vote looming in May, the Italian leaders have mounted a series of increasingly personal attacks on Macron in recent months, with Salvini denouncing him as a "terrible president."They have encouraged the yellow vest protests, which emerged in November over fuel taxes before ballooning into a widespread and often violent revolt against Macron and his reformist agenda. France's Europe affairs minister, Nathalie Loiseau, said the decision to recall France's envoy was meant to signal that "playtime is over." "What I see is an Italy in recession, an Italy in trouble; I don't rejoice over this because this is an important partner for France, but I do think the first thing for a government to do is to look after its people's welfare," she told Radio Classique.
Di Maio did seek to play down the spat in his letter, saying "the political and strategic differences between the French and Italian governments should not impact the history of friendly relations that unites our peoples and our nations."And Salvini, who is also Italy's interior minister, revealed Friday that he had invited his French counterpart Christophe Castaner to Rome for talks, in particular on how to handle the influx of migrants crossing the Mediterranean for Europe. But Loiseau had already warned last month that working meetings and visits by officials between the two countries were, for the moment, out of the question.
'The Alps are higher'
Italian newspapers on Friday described the crisis as the most serious since the declaration of war between the two countries in 1940. "From today, the Alps are higher," wrote Lucio Caracciolo, director of the Limes geopolitical review, said in La Repubblica newspaper. "The recall for consultations of the French ambassador to Rome, Christian Masset, is a sign of an unprecedented crisis in Italian-French relations." For La Stampa newspaper, the tensions "could in some ways be expected given how insistent the M5S (Five Star Movement) has been in its approach to the yellow vests." But one columnist in Corriere della Sera wrote: "Italy has a lot to lose over this confrontation, by adopting a policy of proud isolation at a time when relations between Paris and Berlin are ever tighter."

Maduro Vows to Block 'Fake' Aid 'Spectacle'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 08/19/Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro vowed on Friday not to let in "fake" aid from the United States requested by opposition leader Juan Guaido, which is being stockpiled at the border with Colombia. "Venezuela won't allow the spectacle of fake humanitarian aid because we're no-one's beggars," Maduro said at a press conference in Caracas. He also hit out at European and Latin American ministers who called on Thursday for a new presidential ballot. Meeting in Uruguay's capital Montevideo, the International Contact Group had urged "free, transparent and credible presidential elections" in crisis-wracked Venezuela "as soon as possible" to find a peaceful solution to the power struggle between Maduro and Guaido. Under Maduro's guidance, Venezuela has descended into economic crisis marked by hyperinflation, recession and shortages of basic necessities including food and medicine. Guaido has claimed 300,000 people could die if Maduro doesn't allow the humanitarian aid to enter. Over the border, Venezuelan troops are blocking the road that trucks carrying the aid would have to travel on. Bringing in aid is central to National Assembly President Guaido's challenge to Maduro's authority. Guaido caused shock waves in Venezuelan politics on January 23 when he declared himself acting president, a move quickly backed by the US and subsequently around 40 countries. Speaking on Friday, Maduro said Venezuela's humanitarian crisis has been "fabricated by Washington" to justify "intervention" in the South American country. He blamed shortages of food and medicine on US sanctions, which mostly target regime individuals as well as state oil company PDVSA. "Liberate the money that has been blocked and sequestered," said Maduro. "This is a macabre game: we squeeze them by the neck and make them ask for crumbs."He said the aid offer was "a message of humiliation for the people."Earlier on Wednesday morning, a Venezuelan military boat carrying 100 tons (tonnes) of aid landed in Havana. Cuba was recently hit by a tornado. Turning his ire on the Contact Group, Maduro aimed a message at the European Union. "You don't listen to the truth in Venezuela. You're deaf... They've taken extremist positions," he said. The Contact Group had urged Maduro to allow in aid and said it would send a mission to Venezuela to discuss how to "establish the necessary guarantees for a credible electoral process, as soon as possible."The group, which says it includes countries with a "neutral" perspective on the Venezuela crisis, chided Maduro over the deaths of 40 opposition protesters last month. It also told the socialist leader to "restore full democracy, the rule of law, the separation of powers and respect for the constitutional mandate of the country's institutions, particularly the democratically elected National Assembly."The opposition-controlled legislature has been powerless since 2016 after it was stripped of its powers by the Supreme Court, made up of regime loyalists.

French Minister in Iraq Warns 'Work Not Over' in IS Fight
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 08/19/France's defense minister warned Friday in Baghdad that "the work is not over" in the fight against the Islamic State group, despite the jihadists facing the loss of their last scrap of territory. "The territorial caliphate, which has not yet been wiped out, is being defeated," minister Florence Parly said in the Iraqi capital. "We must continue the fight against IS and terrorism in the region because IS is probably in the process of reorganizing underground and spreading out." U.S.-backed fighters in neighboring Syria are gearing up for a final push to oust IS from the sole village it still holds, all that remains of a proto-state that once spanned swathes of both countries. President Donald Trump, who committed late last year to pulling U.S. troops out of Syria, has said he expects a final declaration of victory over IS next week. Parly called for France "to strengthen the relationship of cooperation and partnership with Iraq," both as part of a U.S.-led coalition and bilaterally, to face the "persistent threat" of IS. Trump sparked the ire of Iraqi officials last week when he said he plans to keep American forces in their country to keep an eye on neighboring Iran, also a major power-broker in Baghdad. Defense ministers from the anti-IS coalition, of which France is a central member, are set to meet soon to determine how it can maintain a regional "presence," Parly said. "It is a proposal that will be made subject to Iraq accepting the conditions of this presence. We are on sovereign territory."

Ready to bring down Netanyahu, ex-general stirs hope of change
AP/February 08/JERUSALEM: Former military chief Benny Gantz has burst onto Israel’s political scene as the great hope of the country’s shrinking “peace camp” with a message that is anything but dovish. The retired general, who wants to topple Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in April 9 elections, boasts of killing Palestinian militants and aligns himself with political hard-liners. He fires back at Netanyahu’s criticism with scathing counterattacks. In today’s Israel, Gantz’s ready-to-rumble rhetoric appears to be the only way to bring down the long-serving Netanyahu. That is turning him into an unlikely source of hope for Israelis who view ending their country’s rule over the Palestinians, now in its 51st year, as a priority. Yossi Beilin, an architect of the 1993 interim peace accords with the Palestinians, said fear of another Netanyahu term is driving much of the support for Gantz. He called Gantz a “black dove” — an imperfect but tolerable alternative to Netanyahu. “Not that I agree with everything he says, but many of the things he is saying are OK from my point of view,” Beilin said. Opinion polls forecast victory for Netanyahu’s Likud Party. But since Gantz’s recent maiden political speech, his new “Israel Resilience” party has emerged as No. 2. The race could swing in the challenger’s favor. Netanyahu faces possible indictment in a series of corruption investigations, perhaps before the elections. Meanwhile, Gantz is reportedly exploring mergers with other centrist parties. Gantz appears to be modeling himself after Ehud Barak and the late Yitzhak Rabin — former military chiefs-turned-prime ministers. Both used military credentials to lead security-obsessed Israel to peace negotiations with the Palestinians. Wary of being branded a “leftist,” considered a put-down by many Israelis, Gantz has said little about his vision of peace with the Palestinians. He dresses his rhetoric in security terms as he tries to win support from Netanyahu’s nationalist base. In his January speech, Gantz bragged about assassinating Ahmed Jabari, a former Hamas military commander whose death in an Israeli airstrike in the Gaza Strip sparked an eight-day war in 2012. “The heads of the terrorist organizations need to know that Ahmed Jabari was not the first, nor may he be the last,” Gantz warned. Without giving details, he vowed to “strive for peace” and — if that is impossible — to shape a “new reality.” He said he’d strengthen West Bank settlement blocs and retain control of the Jordan Valley, a strategic section of the occupied West Bank the Palestinians seek as the heartland of a future state. The UN has said about two-thirds of more than 2,100 Palestinians killed in the 2014 war were civilians.

Report: US Military to Withdraw from Syria in April
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 8 February, 2019/The US is planning to pull out its troops from Syria at the end of April, revealed the Wall Street Journal. A US official confirmed the April target to Reuters, saying the withdrawal included a pullout from the US military base at Tanf, near the Syrian border with Iraq and Jordan. Asked about the WSJ report, a spokesman for the US-led coalition fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq referred Reuters to comments by Pentagon spokesman Commander Sean Robertson, who declined to discuss the pull-out timeline. A Turkish official said the United States had not signaled to Ankara a date when the US withdrawal from Syria would be completed. An official from the Syrian Democratic Forces, the US-backed alliance which is spearheaded by the YPG, told Reuters: "What we know is that so far there is no withdrawal, and the situation on the ground is unchanged. There is no discussion to set any date or time ceiling (for a withdrawal)". President Donald Trump announced in December he was pulling all 2,000 US troops out of Syria, saying the battle against ISIS there was almost won. The president's sudden decision surprised many in his own administration as well as coalition allies such as Turkey and an alliance of Kurdish and Arab factions that fought ISIS with US military support. Washington has been trying to reach agreement with Turkey, which considers the US-backed Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) a terrorist organization, for the safety of the YPG fighters after it pulls out. It is also discussing setting up a safe zone along the border to address Turkish security concerns.

Cavusoglu: US-Turkish Task Force to Coordinate Withdrawal from Syria
Ankara - Saeed Abdelrazek/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 8 February, 2019/ Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced the formation of a joint US-Turkish task force to coordinate the US pullout from Syria. “I suggested to my US counterpart, Mike Pompeo, the idea of establishing a joint task force to coordinate the US withdrawal from Syria, and he agreed to my proposal,” said the minister. “This force will only be concerned with the withdrawal issue," he stressed. In remarks on the sidelines of a meeting of foreign ministers in Washington as part of the global coalition to defeat ISIS, Cavusoglu considered the US pullout from Iraq without coordination or planning as the source of problems in the Middle East. He said such a withdrawal was a "real mistake.""When Washington withdrew from Iraq, the country was handed over to former Premier Nouri al-Maliki, who had marginalized a large segment of the Iraqi society, leading to chaos,” he explained, adding that ISIS elements benefited from the situation and managed, within a short period of time, to gain control over 40 percent of Iraqi territory. "During the US withdrawal (from Syria) there should not be a vacuum that could be filled by terrorists or pro-regime elements," Cavusoglu stressed. "Avoidance of power vacuums that could be exploited by terrorists to undermine Syria’s territorial integrity and neighbors’ national security will be essential," he said. The Turkish minister said he met during his stay in Washington with Chairman of the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations James Risch and a number of other members to discuss the latest developments in northern Syria. He also stressed his country’s rejection of forming a safe zone in Syria that would provide protection for “terrorists.”“It is important what we understand about a safe zone. That is, if a buffer zone that will safeguard terrorists is envisaged or desired, we are against that," said Cavusoglu, referring to US demands to ensure protection of Kurdish fighters from the People's Protection Units (YPG) who are allied with Washington in the war against ISIS.He noted that Turkey will support the formation of a safe zone that will contribute to ending Turkish security concerns, stressing that the idea was first suggested by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Report: Baghdadi Fled Coup Attempt by ISIS Militants
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 8 February, 2019/ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has survived a coup attempt by foreign militants in his eastern Syrian hideout, intelligence officials believe, and the extremist organization has since placed a bounty on the main plotter’s head, The Guardian reported. The incident is believed to have taken place on January 10 in a village near Hajin in the Euphrates River valley, where the extremist group is clinging to its tiny last pocket of land, the UK newspaper said. It quoted regional intelligence officials as saying that a planned move against Baghdadi led to a firefight between foreign fighters and the fugitive terrorist chief’s bodyguards, who spirited him away to the nearby deserts. ISIS has offered a reward to whomever kills Abu Muath al-Jazairi, believed to be a veteran foreign militant, one of an estimated 500 extremists thought to remain in the area. “They got wind of it just in time,” an intelligence official said. “There was a clash and two people were killed. This was the foreign fighter element, some of his most trusted people.”But The Guardian said that while rumors of unrest within ISIS have swirled in recent months, there has been little – until now – to suggest a serious threat from within to Baghdadi’s leadership or life. UN sanctions monitors said Wednesday that the group has not been defeated in Syria and continues to pose by far the most significant threat of any terror group. There are between 14,000 and 18,000 ISIS militants in Syria and in Iraq, including up to 3,000 foreign militants, according to a report by the sanctions monitoring team presented to the Security Council. The report contradicted US President Donald Trump's claims that ISIS is nearly wiped out.

Iran Political Parties Shaky as Revolution Turns 40
London//Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 8 February, 2019/Iran's main political parties are on rocky ground as the Islamic Republic marks its 40th birthday, with reformists in disarray and conservatives seeking a new identity. Even though key reformist leaders have been forcibly sidelined, Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a former reformist vice-president in the 1990s, still believes gradual change is the only option for his country. Since mass protests against alleged election-rigging in 2009, his former boss, ex-president Mohammad Khatami, is barred from appearing in the media, and presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have been under house arrest for the last eight years. There are also few signs of a new generation emerging to succeed them, not least because Iran's influential Guardian Council has the power to reject any election candidates it deems unqualified, AFP quoted Abtahi. "The candidates that can pass the Guardian Council's vetting are low-level," he said. "You can't expect much from them."
The reformists instead pinned their hopes on President Hassan Rouhani, a political moderate who sought conciliation with the West through a landmark nuclear deal in 2015. Yet their hopes have proven ill-founded. Since the United States unilaterally withdrew from that deal last year, Iran's economy has been in a tailspin, adding to popular anger that burst onto the streets in violent protests across dozens of towns and cities a year ago. "When the demonstrators shouted 'Reformists, conservatives: the game is over', they were not wrong," said conservative analyst and politician Amir Mohebbian. "The fact is the (political) game has changed." "Until now, voters would go for the candidate they thought would do the least harm ... but now they have taken as much as they can stand. Now the people want someone who can actually solve their problems."Mohebbian did not elaborate on potential candidates as jockeying for the next presidential elections, due to take place in 2021, has not yet started. But the decision to back Rouhani has "bankrupted" the reformists, he claimed. Journalist and activist Ahmad Zeidabadi, who has been arrested several times, goes further, saying the reformists' plans to try to change the very nature of the state "reached a dead end" some time ago because of the system's lack of "flexibility". The disarray among the reformist camp however does not mean the conservatives will benefit, said Mohebbian, who believes they first need to "redefine their relationship with the establishment."
For decades, the conservatives have been closely associated with the establishment, many of them holding key unelected positions. But for them to survive the changing political environment, they "must move closer to the people" since the people "don't trust" them now, Mohebbian said.
And it is not just mainstream political factions who are demanding change. Ardent supporters of the revolution believe its original values -- such as policies in favor of the poor -- have been largely forgotten, pointing to widespread allegations of corruption to back their claims.
Concern over corruption by successive governments has become a "powderkeg," believes Nader Talebzadeh, a film-maker who advised Ebrahim Raisi, the preferred candidate of ultraconservatives in the 2017 presidential election.
The whole issue of corruption "makes the Iranian people very angry," he added. But for all the popular disillusionment, former vice-president Abtahi said Iranians are still "wise enough to know that regime change will destroy their future" -- especially if it is coordinated by the United States. "Maybe if the US had turned Iraq and Afghanistan into an economic heaven, a heaven of social freedoms... maybe things would be very different," he said with a wry smile. The authorities have always boasted of high election turnouts as evidence of their legitimacy. In 2017, more than 73 percent of eligible voters took part in the presidential election. Looking ahead, Mohebbian believes "the next five years or so are going to be important," pointing to the fact that Iran will need at some point to choose a successor to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who turns 80 this year. "This is the general period in which there could be changes in the country's leadership," Mohebbian said. "The important issue is whether a shift at the top of the state will lead to a paradigm shift or not," he added. "Will it lead to a change of things that we currently consider sacrosanct? Or will these elements be kept but the direction change, leaving only a shell of what was?"

Warsaw Summit to Set Up 6 Committees to Deal with Iran’s Behavior
London - Ibrahim Hamidi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 8 February, 2019/The Polish-US sponsored ministerial meeting scheduled in Warsaw on Feb. 13-14 to promote peace and security in the Middle East is expected to create six different committees tasked with “changing Iran’s behavior” in the region. The committees are expected to implement recommendations on fighting terrorism and extremism, cyber security, the development of ballistic missiles, the protection of the safety and security of naval passages, and human rights issues, all of them files directly affecting Iran’s behavior in the Middle East. Representatives from 79 states would participate in the conference, and all EU members are invited to attend. New UN Special Envoy Geir Pedersen should present a summary on the situation in Syria at the opening session of the international gathering. Last month, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox news that the gathering would “focus on Middle East stability and peace and freedom and security,” including “an important element of making sure that Iran is not a destabilizing influence.”Last year, US President Donald Trump withdrew his country from the 2015 Iran nuclear accord. Washington deliberately planned to hold the meeting next week to coincide with the 40th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution. Also, the summit takes place amid an expected meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Three workshops will be held at the Polish capital: The first to discuss ballistic missiles, another to tackle cyber security and the third is expected to focus on terrorism, including the financing of terrorist groups, which threaten international security and peace. Meanwhile, reports published on Thursday said Iran transferred its operations at the Damascus airport, also known as the “Glass House,” to the T-4 base in central Syria, after the airport has come under Israeli strikes in the past months. It is believed that Moscow contributed to such a move following military talks led by a Russian delegation that visited Tel Aviv last week.

Leaked Files Reveal Iran's Crackdown on Journalists
London/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 8 February, 2019/The Iranian government arrested, imprisoned or executed at least 860 journalists between 1979 and 2009, according to documents leaked to media monitoring group Reporters Without Borders (RSF).
At a news conference in Paris, RSF said whistleblowers had passed on 1.7 million records detailing judicial proceedings against an array of citizens, including minorities, government opponents and journalists. RSF Secretary-General Christophe Deloire said the group had spent months cross-checking the records with its own documented cases and those of other NGOs, and had established that hundreds of journalists had been targeted by the state. "The file is a register of all the arrests, imprisonments and executions carried out by the Iranian authorities in the Tehran area over three decades," RSF said. Deloire told the press conference that the findings would be submitted to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet. "The very existence of this file and its millions of entries show not only the scale of the Iranian regime's mendacity for years when claiming that its jails were holding no political prisoners or journalists, but also the relentless machinations it used for 40 years to persecute men and women for their opinions or their reporting," he said. Prominent journalists in the file include Farj Sarkhohi, editor of a political magazine who Tehran said disappeared en route to Germany in 1996. "The regime staged a press conference at the airport at which it produced Sarkhohi and claimed he had just returned from Turkmenistan. In reality, he had just spent two months in prison," the report said. It also said Iranian-Canadian photographer Zahra Kazemi died of beating injuries at Tehran's Evin prison in 2003, after taking pictures of families waiting outside the facility. Iran has denied her killing, with an official report on her death failing to disclose the cause of death. In its analysis, RSF also identified another journalist who was executed. Simon Farzami, a Swiss-Iranian of Jewish origin was bureau chief of French news agency Agence France-Presse when he was arrested in 1980. Iranian human rights lawyer Shirin Ebadi, recipient of the 2003 Nobel Peace Prize, and several other activists and journalists attended Thursday's conference in Paris.

Iran’s Second Attempt to Launch Satellite Fails
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 8 February, 2019/Satellite images revealed on Thursday a second failed attempt by Iran to launch a satellite into orbit, despite US and European warnings that its space program helps the country develop ballistic missiles. Iranian Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri said that his country would “not fear threats” aimed at forcing it to negotiate its defense and missile capabilities. While Iran issued a statement confirming the launching operation, the Associated Press (AP) reported that images released by the Colorado-based company DigitalGlobe showed a rocket at the Imam Khomeini Space Center in Iran’s Semnan province on Tuesday. Images from Wednesday showed the rocket was gone with what appears to be burn marks on its launch pad. According to the AP, the images showed words written in Farsi in large characters on the launch pad, saying in part “40 years” and “Iranian made,” in different sections. The agency said it was possibly a reference to the 40th anniversary of Iran’s Revolution, which authorities have been celebrating this month. A few days ago, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had tweeted sharp criticism against the Iranian regime’s policies. Adding the hashtag “Forty Years of Failure”, he said “Iran's corrupt regime has delivered nothing but broken promises”, sparking widespread disaffection among Iranians. In a strongly-worded statement earlier this month, European countries condemned Iran’s missile activities that contradict UN Security Council Resolution 2231. The United States says the launches are contrary to a UN Security Council resolution banning any activities related to the development of ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Although Iran denies possessing a nuclear weapon, the country has missile launchers and sometimes conducts missile tests that do not include military components. Iran also asserts it does not violate the UN resolution, which only prohibits conducting any nuclear tests, according to Tehran.

Egypt’s Army Chief Lauds Anti-Terror Efforts in Sinai
Cairo - Walid Abul Rahman/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 8 February, 2019/Egyptian Chief of Staff Mohamed Farid lauded the anti-terror operations in Sinai. He made his remarks during his inspection of each of the Suez Canal security task forces and Second field army units deployed in Sinai. Farid also reviewed the implementation of tactics and plans to counter terrorism in Sinai. He praised the high morale of the forces, stressing that the armed forces will always serve as Egypt's protective shield. Speaking to attending officers and soldiers, Farid reviewed performance and sat for a briefing on first-response mechanisms for dealing with emergencies. According to a statement by military spokesman Colonel Tamer Rifai, Farid stressed the importance of vigilance and awareness of officers on duty, and the protection of the Suez Canal in particular as a key strategic waterway. He also praised the progress made in performance and training, despite the difficult weather conditions. Farid ended his inspection tour by joining one of the training drills. Since February 2018, the army and police have been carrying out a major security operation in northern and central Sinai to purge the area of terrorists.
During a visit to the Second Field Army units deployed in Sinai, Farid met a number of commanders, officers, non-commissioned officers, military personnel and deployed soldiers. The meeting began by paying respects for the lives of fallen armed forces and police members, who were killed on duty. Rifai said Farid conveyed the greetings and appreciation of President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi to the Second Field Army units for their great efforts in protecting national security. Meanwhile, Interior Minister Mahmoud Tawfik awarded 286 policemen working in security departments in North Sinai, Cairo, Alexandria, Beheira, Dakahlia, Kafr El Sheikh, Sohag, Assiut, Beni Suef, Qena, Luxor and Port Said for their outstanding public service.

Al-Azhar's Imam Warns of 'Malicious Terrorist Agenda' to Weaken Palestinian Cause
Cairo - Waleed Abdul-Rahman/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 8 February, 2019/Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb, the Grand Imam of Egypt’s al-Azhar mosque, affirmed that terrorist movements have a malicious agenda to distance Muslims from the Palestinian cause and involve them in internal conflicts that serve the occupation's interest. As he received Hamas delegation headed by the movement's chief Ismail Haniya in Cairo on Thursday, he said that Palestine is a key national cause and therefore al-Azhar is keen to back it and remind the nation of Palestine's history and Arabism. Haniya, in his turn, expressed gratitude to the tremendous support shown by al-Azhar towards the Palestinians, especially through "al-Azhar International Conference to Support Jerusalem", which restored the nation’s awareness towards the Palestinian cause. The Hamas chief showed appreciation to the medical and aid convoys sent by al-Azhar to the Gaza Strip, adding that the crisis requires returning to al-Azhar's moderate intellect.In March, al-Azhar decried the Israeli occupation forces' suppression of peaceful marches on the 42nd occasion of the Land Day and the Great March of Return. Back then, the Palestinians' right to determine their fate and struggle to restore their occupied land were highly stressed by al-Azhar. Earlier, al-Azhar warned of consequences of the US decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

Nuclear First Strike Should Still Be an Option for America
Tyler Cowen/Bloomberg/February, 08/19/Democrats in the US House and Senate introduced legislation last week to prevent the US from using nuclear weapons unless first attacked by nuclear weapons from another country. Ideally, the bill will induce a long-needed reconsideration of US nuclear weapons policy — and lead to the conclusion that “The No First Use Act” would hobble US national interests and make the world a more dangerous place. First, let us assume that the bill, one of whose sponsors is senator and presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren, actually would have binding force in some of the emergency cases where this might be an issue to begin with. Otherwise, it is an empty declaration. What might be some possible occasions on which the US would entertain a nuclear first strike? Say a president received intelligence reports that the North Koreans were planning either a nuclear attack themselves, or to sell some of their weapons to hostile terrorist groups. Assume also that a direct ground invasion was infeasible (likely) and that bunker-buster bombs would not suffice to take out the regime (also likely). In that situation, the US might well entertain the notion of a limited nuclear strike on North Korea, if only to forestall an even greater catastrophe. This is not to say that such a strike is actually a good idea, as in the abstract it is impossible to know (intelligence can be wrong, for one thing), and if the US actually carried out the strike, the alternative scenario would never materialize. Still, the possibility of such a strike — even if it is irrational or too destructive — might deter the North Koreans from going down this path to begin with.Or, if you prefer, take a hypothetical from history. Say Nazi Germany still was fighting World War II when the Manhattan Project succeeded in building a few nuclear bombs. If the Germans were on the verge of getting their own nuclear weapon, would you have wanted America to have the freedom to take out the Nazi bomb? It is hard to see why the US should voluntarily surrender this capability. And if the fear is a truly rogue American president, that seems to be exactly the case where the law would be ignored and a unilateral attack would proceed anyway. Maybe you think the bill will limit the risk of a miscalculation. But the most likely scenario for miscalculation is one in which the US has concluded (mistakenly) that another nation has already launched nuclear weapons. The bill would not prevent this scenario. Countries have different uses for their nuclear weapons. In the case of the hypothetical involving North Korea, for example, few would expect India to have either the desire or the capacity to solve the North Korea problem. A “no first strike” nuclear policy thus might make sense for India, and indeed the country has adopted a version of such a policy. But as the world’s dominant military power, the U.S. is in a fundamentally different position. Furthermore, how exactly would it be determined that another nation had launched nuclear weapons first? There are plenty of unambiguous cases (e.g., Hiroshima), but also numerous intermediate scenarios requiring judgment. What if a missile is launched and then crashes, without delivering its payload? What if US forces knock out a missile site while a nuclear launch is underway? What if the near future brings very small tactical nuclear weapons, with more discrete impacts than current tactical nukes? What if some other weapon of mass destruction, for example a bioweapon that is far more lethal and dangerous than a nuke, were deployed? In those cases, does a commander in chief first have to obtain permission from Congress before ordering a nuclear strike? The bill itself is short on details, but a recent and comparable bill stated the logical alternative that a first-use nuclear strike would be prohibited “unless such strike is conducted pursuant to a declaration of war by Congress that expressly authorizes such strike.” What if a devastating cyberattack rendered such a vote impossible? What if a hypersonic nuclear weapon were launched against Washington, giving the president only minutes to make a decision? This debate is not entirely new. President Barack Obama considered a no-first-use declaration, but it was strenuously opposed by top cabinet officials and US allies in both Asia and Europe. Obama wisely dropped the idea. Nothing in the basic calculus of the situation has changed since then. The use of nuclear weapons remains the most important issue we face as a civilization. It is thus especially important that US policy both engage with allies and reflect the lessons of game theory and nuclear weapons. Analytically speaking, the No First Use Act is weak. For the US, first-strike capability remains a valuable option.

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 08-09/19
Has Turkish President Erdoğan Distanced Himself from the Muslim Brotherhood?
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/February 08/19
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13704/turkey-erdogan-muslim-brotherhood
The picture sent shockwaves through the Turkish grassroots: A poor Egyptian member of the Muslim Brotherhood, handcuffed by the Turkish police, put aboard a Turkish Airlines plane to fly back to Cairo, to be tortured and eventually executed. Is President Erdoğan not a staunch supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood? Is he not an eternal enemy of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who came to power after toppling the Muslim Brotherhood man, former president Mohamed Morsi, a darling of Erdoğan?
The "mistake" was that the Erdoğan administration was not expecting Hussein, so the immigration officers treated him as just another illegal entry. He would not have been arrested and extradited if the Turkish authorities had known he was a member of the Ikhwan.
False alarm. Erdoğan apparently has not changed, after all.
An Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood member was deported by the Turkish police back to Cairo, to be tortured and eventually executed. But isn't Turkey's President Erdoğan a staunch supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood and an eternal enemy of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi? (Image sources: Elif Sogut/Andrew Burton/Getty Images)
The picture sent shockwaves through Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's grassroots: A poor Egyptian member of the Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan in Arabic) handcuffed by the Turkish police, put aboard a Turkish Airlines plane to fly back to Cairo, to be tortured and eventually executed. Is President Erdoğan not a staunch supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood? Is he not an eternal enemy of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who came to power after toppling the Ikhwan man, former president Mohamed Morsi, a darling of Erdoğan? Did Erdoğan not freeze diplomatic relations with el-Sisi's Egypt?
In August 2013, about a month after el-Sisi toppled Morsi, Erdoğan appeared on television. In an unusually soft voice he read a letter written by the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed al-Beltagy to his daughter Asmaa, a 17-year-old girl who had been killed in Cairo when security forces stormed two protest camps occupied by supporters of the deposed president, Morsi. Poor Asmaa was shot in the back and chest.
"I believe you have been loyal to your commitment to God, and He has been to you," Asmaa's father wrote in the letter. "Otherwise, He would not have called you to His presence before me." You could see Erdoğan's tears. In later days, Asmaa became another symbol of Turkish Islamists; Erdoğan cheered party fans with the four-finger Rabia sign, a reference to his solidarity with the Muslim Brotherhood, and a sign of his endearment to the unfortunate girl.
El-Sisi ran for president and won the elections, which Erdoğan then declared "null and void." Erdoğan vowed never to recognize the regime that seemed to have come to power in Egypt through a coup, and called el-Sisi "an illegitimate tyrant" and a "coup-maker".
Who, then, is Mohamed Abdelhafez Ahmed Hussein, the Muslim Brotherhood member deported to Egypt presumably for capital punishment, and why would the Turkish regime, which one would expect to be his staunchest savior, extradite him to a hostile regime?
Hussein, born on February 14, 1991, is an agricultural engineer, and widely known for his close links with the Muslim Brotherhood since the days of his youth. Hussein is one of the 28 people convicted in 2017 by an Egyptian court for the June 29, 2015 assassination of Prosecutor General Hisham Barakat.
Hussein, convicted in absentia, fled to Somalia via Sudan. His first plan was to fly to another friendly country, Malaysia, to seek refuge there. His friends suggested a flight to Kuala Lumpur via Istanbul. No, that ticket would be expensive. Someone else suggested a cheaper ticket ($860) to Cairo via Istanbul, but he did not take the Cairo flight. He did NOT want to go back to Egypt, but because he could not obtain a Turkish visa in Mogadishu, he wanted to pretend he was going to Cairo. He was, in fact, planning to stay in Istanbul with the help of his friends in the Ikhwan: his friends in Turkey might help him slip into Turkey illegally.
As an Egyptian citizen, he had to be younger than 18 or over 45 to qualify to apply for a Turkish e-visa. He failed to qualify. The Turkish embassy in Mogadishu did not have the authority to issue this Egyptian citizen a visa.
On the evening of January 16, 2019, Hussein arrived in Istanbul, with a ticket for a connecting flight to Cairo on the 17th -- a trip he did not intend to take. At the Turkish immigration counter, he said he wanted to apply for an e-visa. Turkish authorities told him that due to his age, he is not entitled to apply for an e-visa. Helpless, Hussein tells Turkish authorities that he cannot take the flight to Cairo because an execution order is waiting for him there.
Turkish officials tell him they do not have any evidence of a court decision about him, execution or not, and no legal documents to prove that he was in danger of execution in his own country. So, the plan to smuggle Hussein into Turkey fails at the immigration desk. The Turkish passport police, unaware of the political troubles awaiting them, put him on a flight to Cairo on January 18. Upon his arrival, Egyptian authorities placed him under arrest.
By now, Hussein's Egyptian and Turkish "brothers" are shocked and enraged, and launched a campaign to alert President Erdoğan and other government officials of the "grave mistake."
The "mistake" was that the Erdoğan administration was not expecting Hussein, so the immigration officers treated him as just another illegal entry. He would not have been arrested and extradited if the Turkish authorities had known he was a member of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Müfid Yüksel, an Islamist columnist in Turkey wrote: "Those [officials] who extradited him should be probed." Another Turkish journalist, Adem Özköse, wrote: "Our brother Hussein has been extradited to the Sisi administration. Those who are responsible should be held to account".
Kenan Alpay, from the militant Islamist daily Yeni Akit, appealed to Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu: "Why are you still silent [on the Hussein affair]?" This, said Rıdvan Kaya, head of an Islamist NGO, Özgür-Der, is providing a bloodthirsty dictator with new blood.
Is this a subtle step taken by the Erdoğan administration to offer an olive branch to his arch-enemy, el-Sisi of Egypt? Is Erdoğan changing course and abandoning his ideological love affair with the Muslim Brotherhood? Is Hussein's extradition an initial sign of a Turkish plan to normalize ties with Egypt, after six years of explicit hostilities? Why did Erdoğan extradite a 28-year-old member of the Ikhwan to the el-Sisi's Egypt, while knowing that he would likely be executed? Is this a signal that there is a major policy change in Ankara?
To reach any of those conclusions would be a bit naïve. There are a number of reasons to believe that Hussein was not extradited to Egypt as part of a Turkish policy re-calibration or of a decision slowly to distance itself from the Islamist cause.
First, Erdoğan seems too ideologically rigid to make fundamental policy moves away from political Islam -- his whole reason for being.
Second, he is heading toward critical municipal elections on March 31 and therefore not in a position to offend his Islamist grassroots supporters. As in every pre-election period, this, for Erdoğan, is the time to bash Israel and tone up pro-Hamas, pro-Ikhwan rhetoric as strongly as possible.
Third, there is Qatar, Erdoğan's staunchest regional ally and the patron of Yusuf al-Qaradawi, a Qatari-based nonagenarian cleric wanted in Egypt in connection to the violent protests that followed the ouster of Morsi.
In a 2016 speech, al-Qaradawi praised "Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdoğan" as a man "who defends the nation in the name of Islam and the Quran and the Sunnah, and Sharia, and he speaks of standing in front of the tyrant." The man did not say which tyrant, but in the jihadist lexicon, "the tyrant" usually refers to "infidels": Christians and Jews as well as secular Muslims.
Fourth, the way Hussein was deported to his home country looks very much like a typical Turkish bureaucratic mishap. He was probably not expected to arrive in Istanbul with the intention of staying. He would most probably have been given preferential treatment by the Turkish embassy in Mogadishu had his friends not thought they could smuggle him into Turkey without a visa. It is most likely that the Turkish immigration officers in Istanbul were confused over whether he was a member of their president's favorite organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, or if he was an Islamic State jihadist. As Hussein did not have valid papers for entry, they most likely did not want to take the risk.
The Istanbul governor's office denied that Hussein had requested asylum. A statement from the office said on February 4:
"According to Turkish law, the foreign individual was sent back to his country with inadmissible passenger (INAD) status ... There wasn't any notice by the individual to airport staff or police force about an international asylum request, there is no information whether he is on trial in Egypt or any other country."
On February 5, apparently panicked by the political repercussions of what would normally be a simple deportation, the governor's office released a new statement saying that eight police officers working for Turkey's passport control office were suspended, pending an investigation. That confirms that Hussein was not "politically extradited to Egypt".
Erdoğan has always argued that Muslim Brotherhood is not a terror organization, but rather an "ideological organization". His "ideological" kinship with the Brotherhood remains in place. Early in January, DITIB, the Turkish government-backed Islamic organization operating in Germany, invited two Brotherhood members to its conference in Cologne. Henriette Reker, a spokesperson for Cologne's mayor, said "there was no place for radicalism in Cologne". The Cologne conference confirms that Turkey is still officially supporting the Muslim Brotherhood: a Turkish government agency invited two Brotherhood members to its event in the German city.
Erdoğan's feud with Egypt's El-Sisi runs deep. Erdoğan has a kind of emotional, ideological attachment to the Ikhwan which, after having deposed its president, Mohamed Morsi, el-Sisi views as an existential security threat to his country.
Starting in 2015, Turkey provided safe haven to Muslim Brotherhood members, including broadcasting their messages from Turkish territory.
Just last year, a celebration in Istanbul brought together like-minded Islamists, including former Hamas political bureau chief, Khaled Mashaal, to celebrate the Muslim Brotherhood's 90th anniversary. At the same conference, Yasin Aktay -- a professor and MP from Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party as well as a senior advisor to Erdoğan – said, rather inaccurately, "Ikhwan has never diverted from the path to peace ... it has never resorted to violence".
According to the Syrian journalist based In Turkey, Hüsnü Mahalli, "most influential Brotherhood members in the world reside in Turkey." Mahalli says there are 2,000 Brotherhood media members in Turkey, 10 television stations and several radio stations. Altogether, Mahalli says, there are more than 5,000 Ikhwan members given refuge in Turkey thanks to Turkish and Qatari money.
False alarm. Erdoğan apparently has not changed, after all.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Get China and Russia Out of Venezuela - and the Western Hemisphere
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/February 08/19
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13700/venezuela-china-russia
The partnership of Beijing and Moscow is certainly up to no good. As an initial matter, the duo, powers from the other side of the world, are in Venezuela to take on the United States, not help it.
It is doubtful, as Matt Ferchen of the Leiden Asia Center in the Netherlands suggests, that Beijing can help another society transition to democracy. The same, of course, can be said about Vladimir Putin's Russia. After China and Russia worked to turn Venezuela into "the Syria of the Western Hemisphere," they are not about to democratize it.
An outreach from Washington "would legitimize the concept that Russia and China have a constructive role to play in Western Hemisphere security... the U.S. has everything to lose from inviting China and Russia to the table, and no realistic prospect of gains." — Robert Evan Ellis of the U.S. Army War College, to Gatestone.
China and Russia make no global problem better. The only sensible approach, therefore, is to remove them from our hemisphere, and the place to begin to do that is Venezuela.
Juan Gerardo Guaidó Márquez appears to be the legitimate president of Venezuela, and his claim to the presidency has been recognized by the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Peru, Colombia, and a slew of European countries. Pictured: Guaidó (center, waving) on February 2, 2019 in Caracas, Venezuela.
"What are our national security interests in Venezuela?" Adam Smith, the Washington Democrat who chairs the House Armed Services Committee, asked Erin Burnett on January 29 during her CNN primetime show. "The idea that we're going to go in and do battle in Venezuela over who should be running that country, I don't see a single U.S. national security argument for doing that."
Not a single interest, Chairman Smith? In December, two Russian Tu-160 Blackjacks landed near Caracas. The Mach 2, nuclear-capable bombers can launch cruise missiles with a range of 3,410 miles, putting the U.S. homeland at risk from the airspace over Venezuela. The Blackjack bombers also buzzed America's West Coast as they left the region last month.
Representative Smith charged President Trump with making Venezuela policy "on whims and fantasies and no reality behind it."
On the contrary, Trump policy is based on the reality that the U.S. must be involved in the resolution of the Venezuelan crisis and not on the whims or fantasies that bad actors on their own will produce constructive solutions.
Unfortunately, there is no shortage of misguided ideas when it comes to Venezuela. Tony Blinken, for instance, deputy secretary of state in the Obama administration, told Kate Bolduan on her CNN show on January 28 that Washington should bring China and Russia into discussions about the crisis.
Why, you may ask, is this a less-than-brilliant idea?
First, there is a crisis in Venezuela because there are two figures claiming to be the legitimate leader of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro Moros and Juan Gerardo Guaidó Márquez.
Maduro's re-election in May of last year was marred by charges of widespread vote-rigging, vote-buying, and other irregularities, but more fundamentally it failed to meet constitutional requirements. As such, Guaidó, due to his role as head of the National Assembly, appears to be the legitimate president.
The 35-year-old Guaidó has been recognized by the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Peru, Colombia, and a slew of European countries.
He is not, however, recognized by either China or Russia. They back Maduro to the hilt because they have much to lose if his leftist government falls. Both maintain crucial military facilities in the country, such as China's satellite-tracking facility inside the Capitan Manuel Rios Air Base in Guarico, and have substantial investments and financial ties.
China, for example, has lent Maduro and his predecessor, the infamous Hugo Chávez, over $62 billion, perhaps as much as $70 billion. Of that amount, somewhere between $10-$25 billion remains outstanding. In recent months, China, the regime's largest creditor, has been digging itself in deeper. In September, Beijing extended Venezuela another $5 billion in credit. Russia has also loaned the country billions.
Second, the partnership of Beijing and Moscow is certainly up to no good. As an initial matter, the duo, powers from the other side of the world, are in Venezuela to take on the United States, not help it.
As Joseph Humire of the Center for a Secure Free Society told Fox News, "Russia and China are using Venezuela as a proxy conflict to challenge the U.S." Venezuela, like, Cuba, is a base. Moscow and Beijing, he notes, are providing "economic support to establish a military-industrial presence in Venezuela."
"We can try to negotiate with Moscow and Beijing," Humire told Gatestone Institute, "but for them to help the U.S. resolve the Venezuela crisis they would have to leave Latin America alone, something that almost two decades of regional escalation by Russia and China tells us is unlikely to happen." Their projects in Venezuela are an extension of a continent-wide effort. They want, he points out, to turn Latin America "into a contested theater for military and intelligence operations."
Moreover, there are other objections to asking for Chinese and Russian assistance. It is doubtful, as Matt Ferchen of the Leiden Asia Center in the Netherlands suggests, that Beijing can help another society transition to democracy. The same, of course, can be said about Vladimir Putin's Russia. After China and Russia worked to turn Venezuela into "the Syria of the Western Hemisphere," they are not about to democratize it.
Furthermore, Robert Evan Ellis of the U.S. Army War College told Gatestone that an outreach from Washington "would legitimize the concept that Russia and China have a constructive role to play in Western Hemisphere security."
The Obama administration officially renounced the Monroe Doctrine in 2013, but five years later, then secretary of state Rex Tillerson resurrected it -- and not a moment too soon. There is real danger to the U.S. and Latin America if any state outside the region is allowed to establish colonial or neo-colonial relations here.
In particular, China's ties with Caracas are the essence of neo-colonialism. Historically, the commercial dealings between the two have not been at arm's-length. These dealings have benefited Chávez, Maduro, and their cronies, a "criminal syndicate collaborating with extra-hemispheric authoritarian regimes" as Ellis wrote in a note to security professionals last month.
Beijing has been extending loans and investment on favorable terms to entice Venezuela's leaders into dependence.
Beijing often talks about "South-South solidarity" and a "new era" in China-Latin America ties, but others see "debt-trap diplomacy" or "debt servitude." As a debt slave, Caracas cannot ignore Beijing's geopolitical demands. Some would call this debtor-creditor relationship the foundation of "neo-colonialism," but this debt-trap diplomacy may be even more sinister than that.
Venezuela's subservience should be viewed in the context of Beijing's longer-term goals. Xi Jinping, the extraordinarily ambitious Chinese ruler, seems to be trying to recreate the imperial-era tributary system, in which others were required to acknowledge Chinese supremacy. Xi has been dropping hints that China is the world's only sovereign state, and that bold notion, in turn, suggests he believes in formal colonialism, namely, having China dominate the world.
Whatever form of colonialism China is promoting at the moment, Ellis was correct when he told Gatestone that "the U.S. has everything to lose from inviting China and Russia to the table, and no realistic prospect of gains."
China and Russia make no global problem better. The only sensible approach, therefore, is to remove them from our hemisphere, and the place to begin to do that is Venezuela.
*Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China and a Gatestone Institute Distinguished Senior Fellow.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Are the US and Other Democracies in Trouble?
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/February 08/19
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13680/democracies-trouble
It is apparent that, over time, Jewish American Democrats will find themselves the voters and donors of a party that will initially seek to marginalize them, then ostracize them, and finally, demonize them.
With the last election cycle putting Islamists, who are openly hostile to Jews, in the House of Representatives, the Democratic Party has jettisoned even the pretense of repudiating their anti-Semites.
This transformation will be brought about by a group of new leaders who will have the means effectively to rebrand their emerging power base, either implicitly or explicitly, as the Neo-Islamic Democratic Party, thereby asserting a dominance that will make today's political landscape unrecognizable.
It is more than painful, as anti-Semitic libels are whitewashed by the media or risk becoming part of the Congressional Record, to watch the American Jewish community being played by the political party that many have called "home."
Are democracies in trouble?
As someone outside the world's most powerful democracy, the United States, it is concerning to see how many countries in the West are being transformed. In Europe, free speech continues to be seriously eroded, churches are desecrated, and religious Europeans murdered.
There are signs that the same transformation is beginning in the United States, as well.
International observers have begun asking if the US has a problem. Additionally, according to the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, released on January 29:
"Global jihadists in dozens of groups and countries threaten local and regional US interests, despite having experienced some significant setbacks in recent years, and some of these groups will remain intent on striking the US homeland. Prominent jihadist ideologues and media platforms continue to call for and justify efforts to attack the US homeland".[1]
The report adds: "Homegrown violent extremists (HVEs) are likely to present the most acute Sunni terrorist threat to the United States, and HVE activity almost certainly will have societal effects disproportionate to the casualties and damage it causes"[2].
Late last year, a synagogue in Pittsburgh was attacked. In Ohio, another attack was being planned, "inspired by the mass shooting" in Pittsburgh.
Threats are, of course, directed against Christians as well as Jews.
Abroad, the US is being mocked, and Europe has set up a payment channel to enable trade with Iran that evades US sanctions.
The American Jewish community seems to be facing a threat that it appears quite content to ignore. Not since the aviator legend Charles Lindbergh gathered fellow American Nazis together and others condemned American Jews as being a "fifth column" has the American Jewish community faced such a threat as it does today from openly anti-Semitic candidates recently elected to Congress.
If the past is any way to predict how Jews will respond to this threat, sadly, the vast majority will probably remain indifferent to the ominous political changes now taking place around them. Their indifference, however, is likely to come with an eventual cost.
Today's Congressional freshmen class includes Democrats who clearly seek to upend the belief held by members of the Jewish community that they are a respected minority within the American society. These newly elected members seem to be trying to isolate the Jewish community from their political base by engaging in the traditional canard used by past demagogues, from Rep. Rashida Tlaib's tweet accusing Jews of dual loyalty to the age-old lies that Jews conspire to control the media and finance.
These anti-Semitic falsehoods are being promoted against a backdrop of increased assaults on members of the Jewish community at a rate not seen in generations (most recently here and here). A new report from the UK-based Institute for Jewish Policy Research, and most likely also applicable in the US, has established "a clear link between antisemitism and hostility towards Israel, finding that the strongest holders of antisemitic views tend to support boycotts of Israel or consider it an apartheid state."
"Jonathan Boyd, executive director of the Institute for Jewish Policy Research and the report's co-author, said that people who hold 'traditional antisemitic views' about divided Jewish loyalties or the nefarious use of power are more likely to back ideas of boycott or apartheid than those who do not hold them."
The report was based on a survey of 4,000 people in Britain carried out by Ipsos Mori between late 2016 and early 2017.
The threat emerging from within the Democratic Party is not without irony. The party has been the traditional home of the majority of American Jews since the days of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt. (His studied indifference to chilling evidence of the Holocaust -- that was smuggled out to the Allies -- is a topic for another day.) However, with the last election cycle putting Islamists, who are openly hostile to Jews, in the House of Representatives, the Democratic Party has jettisoned even the pretense of repudiating their anti-Semites. As of this writing, not one Democratic Congressional leader has called for disciplinary action in the wake of recent anti-Semitic slurs by Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib. Rather, there are Republicans who have called out Tlaib.
These emerging political threats to the Jewish community come at a time when social media has totally altered how, where and by whom political positions are communicated throughout American society. They also come at a time when radical Islamists, who have assumed seats in Congress, are seeking to stoke the fires of anti-Semitism and anti-Zionism. Further, it comes at a time when a legitimate women's rights movement has been hijacked by an anti-Semitic leadership. Expect the Democratic Party to be pushed further into the Islamist camp in the months to come.
An entire generation of liberal Democratic leadership that at least recognized Israel's right to exist is being pushed aside. The leaders that remain (such as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi) had been "assaulted" daily with online tweets, trolls and bots launched by younger, aggressive and thoroughly committed Democratic socialists who seek to reinvent the party in their own image, sometimes by using sophisticated online tactics that seemed unstoppable, until Pelosi awarded them plum positions on the prestigious House Oversight and Foreign Relations Committees.
The Jewish American experience in standing with the Civil Rights movement of the 1960s is in the process of being relegated either to ancient history, or the realm of fiction, or discarded as inconsequential.
As an observer far from the U.S., perhaps it is easier to see, and call attention to, this threat. In Israel, for instance, the Jewish community may quarrel and debate among itself but it always appreciates the precarious nature of its survival. Today's American Jewish community, however, remains blind to the threat, repeating the mantra of the German Jews of the early 1930s that there has always been anti-Semitism and, aside from some uncomfortable moments, it is not really an existential threat.
A retired attorney, Pete Cohon, noted:
"Democrats were presumed to be for the little guy, and Republicans were assumed to be rich, white men. The Jewish community (other than the Orthodox) and the Democrats became joined at the hip. The majority of Jewish families taught its kids to vote Democrat for justice for the little guy. Voting Democrat became a part of Jewish culture in America...
"These Jews just can't let anything disturb the comfortable delusion that they inherited from their parents and grandparents that the Democrats are for the little guy, especially the Jews.
"But times have changed, and they are wrong. Today, the big issue is the survival of Israel, and it is the Republicans, not the Democrats, who are on our side."
From this offshore observation post, however, it is apparent that, over time, American Jews who are Democrats, and most apparently are, will find themselves the voters and donors of a party that will initially seek to marginalize them, then ostracize them, and finally, demonize them. This transformation will be brought about by a group of new leaders, who will have the means effectively to rebrand their emerging power base, either implicitly or explicitly, as the neo-Islamic Democratic Party, thereby asserting a dominance that will make today's political landscape unrecognizable.
It is more than painful, as anti-Semitic libels are whitewashed by the media or risk becoming part of the Congressional Record, to watch the American Jewish community being played by the political party that many have called "home."
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
[1] Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community p 10.
[2] Ibid. p 12
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Syria: French Count Returns as Russian Apparatchik
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 08/19
Had I believed in the transmigration of souls I might have thought that the spirit of a French aristocrat from some 100 years has slipped into the body of a Russian apparatchik today.
The Frenchman was the Viscount Robert de Caix de Saint-Aymour. His Russian reincarnation is Alexander Lavrentiev. What links them is Syria, a land under French occupation 100 years ago and now partially occupied by Russia.
Caix was sent to Syria as Consul General with a mission to decide what to do about a chunk of territory, some 200,000 square kilometers to be exact, snatched from the crumbling Ottoman Empire. Within weeks Caix had concluded that the territory in question had no distinct identity in terms of nationhood as defined by the Westphalian Treaties that midwifed the birth of modern European nation-states. In other words, the territory was a blank page on which the French could draw whatever shape they liked. The solution he came up with was to rename the territory as Syria, a term dug up in Byzantine history, replacing the term Shaam under the Ottomans.
Then he asserted that “Syria does not exist, and will never exist.”
The reason, he argued, was that the estimated 1.8 million people who inhabited the area were divided into “countless ethnicities, languages and faiths”. The best, not to say the only, way would be to carve the area into two states plus three mini-states built around one of the larger ethnic and/or faith communities.
Caix’s plan was sidelined by a secret accord between France and Great Britain that led to the creation of Lebanon as a state for Christians and Syria as a kingdom for one of London’s exiled Hijazi allies. In the process, a piece was also handed back to the Turks who, having been enemies in the First World War, had become potential allies against Bolshevism in former ally Russia. Despite revolts and years of insurgency by the local population, the carve-up went relatively easily because Syria, like any other area emerging from any imperial rule, did not have a national identity in the modern sense of the term.
Had Caix studied history he would have learned that his own country, France, had had a similar experience after the disintegration of the Holy Roman Empire and the emergence of a Frankish kingdom. On the eve of the French Revolution in 1789 only 12 per cent of the population of the kingdom, divided into over 30 different ethnicities, spoke French.
Like other modern European countries it took centuries for a French nation to be formed and centuries more for that nation to express itself in the form of a state.
In Syria the path to nationhood and, later, statehood was different.
In Europe the nations had created their states. In post-Ottoman Levant, the creation of a state preceded the birth of a nation. That is not so unusual.
The United States is, perhaps, the best example of the birth of a state preceding that of the nation that it is supposed to represent. There are numerous other examples including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and virtually all African and Latin American states. Over the past 100 years the many peoples of the “area” that Caix had treated as a jumble of conflicting identities have blended together to create a Syrian nation with its own identity. Regardless of ethnic, religious and, in a few cases, even linguistic differences, they all share a certain Syrian-ness, to coin a phrase, which would be wrong to ignore. That Syrian-ness is a tangible reality in every walk of life that expresses distinct nationhood, including a desire for self-determination. Fast forward to gospadin Lavrentiev who, like Caix, seems to believe that there is no Syrian nation and that he and his partners from Ankara, not to mention second fiddles from Tehran, have the right, indeed the duty, to decide the future of Syria, starting with the writing of a new constitution.
In the Russian resort of Sochi next week, Lavrentiev is to present his report to President Vladimir Putin flanked by his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Iranian partner Hassan Rouhani. Curiously, even the Assad regime, now a ghost of its past, is not invited to Sochi to at least show the flag. For Russia, Turkey and Iran, the terrible troika, just as Caix thought in his time, Syria is an ungoverned territory the future of which must be decided without its “inhabitants.”Factually, if not symbolically, it is true that Syria no longer has a legitimate government. That, however, does not mean that it has ceased to be a nation-state and thus deserving treatment as such. Taking into account obvious differences between the two situations we have a similar configuration in Venezuela which has ceased to have a legitimate government but has not disappeared as a nation-state.
To complicate matters, the self-styled troika is divided by their recipes for Syria.
All three wish to dilute the Arab aspect of Syria’s identity. The official media in the troika is full of supposedly learned papers claiming that only 50 percent of Syrians are Arabs. All three oppose naming the future state as Arab Republic of Syria. Iran is campaigning for the term “Islamic Republic” which is also used in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sudan and Mauritania. Erdogan prefers the term “Syrian state” while Putin would be happy with “Federal Republic of Syria”. The Russians exaggerate the number of Christians whom they claim to protect. The Turks have all but invented a Turkic community that is supposed to seek a leading role in Syria’s future. The Iranians are making an amalgam of many communities under the label of “fatimiyoun” to claim that their brand of Shiism is bigger than one percent it really is.
The Russians want a federal system that would enable them to hang on to their enclave on the Mediterranean regardless of what happens to the rest of Syria. The Turks and Iranians oppose federalism because they fear Syrian Kurds might end up with an autonomous state of their own.
Like 100 years ago, Syria is under foreign occupation- this time by Russians, Iranians and their mercenaries, Turks and, until they leave, Americans. The comparison with Germany and Japan after the Second World War, where the American occupier imposed constitutions of its choice to create new nation-states, is disingenuous. Germany and Japan had been at war with America and, by surrendering to it, had ceased to be independent nation-states. This is not the case in Syria today. Syria isn’t a blank page on which the Russo-Turco-Iranian wannabe empire builders could draw whatever they dream of. The international community should not accept the re-emergence of a 100-year old colonial monster.

Analysis/Russia May Call Shots in Syria, but U.S. Mideast Dominance Remains Unchallenged
عاموس هاريل/هآرتس: قد تكون الكلمة الآن في سوريا هي لروسيا لكن سيطرة أميركا على الشرق الأوسط تبقى بلا منازع
Amos Harel/Haaretz/February 08/19
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/71975/amos-harel-russia-may-call-shots-in-syria-but-u-s-mideast-dominance-remains-unchallenged-%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B3-%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%84-%D9%87%D8%A2%D8%B1%D8%AA%D8%B3-%D9%82%D8%AF/
New study suggests U.S. downplays the challenges facing Israel in Syria, while Jerusalem may not fully appreciate the race between the superpowers.
Russia is continuing to maneuver between Israel and Iran. This week, within the space of a few hours, the Kremlin announced a series of planned separate meetings between President Vladimir Putin and Netanyahu – who has been hoping to receive an invitation to Moscow ever since the incident of the downing of the Ilyushin in Syrian airspace last September – and with Iranian President Hassan Rohani. As the separatist sentiments expressed by United States President Donald Trump grow ever louder, so Moscow’s image as being able to dictate processes in the Middle East grows stronger.
The relations between Israel, Russia and the United States, in light of the changes in the region, will be discussed next Tuesday at the Herzliya Interdisciplinary Center’s Institute for Policy and Strategy, headed by Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilad. There will be a presentation at the conference of a joint study by the center and the Kennan Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, which specializes on the topic of Russia, about the implications of Russia’s increased involvement in the Middle East.
Gilad told Haaretz that the two institutes believe Russia aims to return to its historical stature as a global power. According to Gilad, the Russian policy poses a number of challenges both to Israel and to the United States and is threatening their interests and their foreign policy aims. In light of (and perhaps despite) Russia’s intervention in favor of Trump in the 2016 presidential election that is now being investigated by Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s team, the relations between the two countries are at a low point relative to the past several decades.
There was no shortage of other reasons, such as the aggressive Russian policy of the last several years – the invasions in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea, the meddling in internal matters of Western countries and the competition between powers in which Russia is returning to the Middle East, from which it has been pushed out gradually after the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
The Russian move in the region is focusing primarily on Syria but also on Egypt, Libya and the Gulf states. However, according to Gilad, aside from Syria, Russia has not yet succeeded in achieving its aspiration to have veto power over future developments, and it is far from truly threatening American dominance in the region.
Moscow, he says, is positioning itself as a mediator between rival players in the region. Russia’s assertiveness in Syria and its cooperation with Iran are liable to increase in the wake of Trump’s declaration about taking American forces out of Syria. In these circumstances, Israel is facing a strategic challenge of the first degree: On the one hand, an Iranian attempt to establish a second front in Syria, and on the other hand Russian constraints on its ability to prevent development of the strategic threat.
The Israeli researchers and their American counterparts identify differences in approach between the United States and Israel with regard to the current Russian policy. Washington understands Israel’s tactical need for coordination with the Russians, but underestimates the Israeli need to stay in close contact with Russia to maintain its freedom of action in Syria.
Moreover, there are those in Washington who see the chummier relations between Netanyahu and Putin as Israeli aid to Russia’s projection of power in the region, at the expense of the Americans. Gilad says that the Americans tend to underestimate the strength of the needs of small countries to take a pragmatic approach, adding that the strategic challenge that is posed to Israel by the Russian entrenchment is greater than the challenge it poses to the United States.
Israel, adds Gilad, must deal “tactically and strategically with a new force on its border, in a way that is almost incomprehensible to the Americans.” For Israel, he says, the strategic alliance is a cornerstone of its national security. “Israel understands the strategic challenge Russia and China present to the U.S., and limits its relationship with them accordingly. However, it may not be sensitive enough to the centrality of the inter-power competition in the context of the American national security doctrine.”
The Israeli institute recommends strengthening the communication channels between Jerusalem and Washington concerning Russia, and pursuing high-level strategic dialogue on the issue. Gilad warns that if the two countries do not find ways to deepen their discourse regarding Russia, the differences in perception and the gaps in understanding are liable to grow deeper. According to Gilad, Israel must make it clear to all sides that it is determined to prevent the development of a strategic threat from Syria and that thwarting Iran’s efforts while avoiding friction with Russia is a supreme Israeli national interest. Israel has to receive from the Americans freedom to act vis-a-vis Russia in accordance with its security interests and it must aspire to maintain America’s strategic backing for its moves in Syria, with regard to Iran’s activity in the region in general, including in the nuclear arena. At the same time, Israel must continue to show full transparency to the American administration concerning its relations with Russia.
In addition, Gilad proposes considering a deal: Recognition of Russia’s special role in Syria in return for pushing Iran and its extensions from the country. In another matter, which has come up for discussion recently in the Israeli political arena, he recommends refraining from raising the possibility of annexing the Golan Heights to Israel, which is liable, in his opinion, to arouse Russian objections and American discomfort.
Despite its economic weakness, in recent years Moscow has succeeded in leveraging military activity and aggression in various arenas to increase its international power. Is Russia indeed again a nearly omnipotent giant, as it appeared to be in the early days of the Cold War? Journalist Masha Gessen, a native of Russia who has written an excellent biography of Putin, wrote in The New Yorker this week that many Russian citizens are looking on in disbelief at the reports of the progress of the Mueller investigation. The thought that the Kremlin led such a sophisticated move to intervene in favor of Trump is not easy for them to accept because they regularly encounter the Russian authorities’ ineptitude everywhere they look on the domestic front.
Test of values
Perhaps it’s a manifestation of the Israeli public’s general move to the right, which is also reflected in the public opinion surveys, and perhaps it’s a by-product of the election race that is looking to be stormy. The media discussion in recent weeks, as well as some of the statements by politicians, are putting to the test a number of the values professedly held dear by the Israel Defense Forces and other security branches – from the attempt to distinguish between enemy fighters and civilians during battle, to backing the actions of subordinates.
The first target – who will undoubtedly be subjected to many more arrows – is former chief of staff Benny Gantz. Even before stepping into the political arena, Gantz spoke at a conference held by Shurat HaDin Israel Law Center, an organization that specializes in filing civil suits in the United States against terrorist organizations. Gantz spoke there about an incident that occurred in Khan Yunis during Operation Protective Edge: Palestinian snipers fired on Golani soldiers from inside a hospital building. The IDF blew up the building, but only after confirming with the Palestinians that the patients and staff had been evacuated. Gantz said he was proud of his decision, even though the delay entailed endangering the lives of the soldiers. “I feel that I am on the right side morally, not only strategically. It is necessary to continue like this, even if it sometimes makes life difficult for us,” he said.
This decision, which obviously conformed to the rules of international law, was enough to arouse a wave of attacks on him from Likud Knesset members and activists of various right-wing parties. On Channel 20 they decided to ride the momentum and conjured up remarks by another former chief of staff, Gadi Eisenkot, when he was still a major general, at a conference of the Institute for National Security Studies. Eisenkot spoke about similar considerations: Evacuation of Lebanese civilians from Dahiyeh, a Shi’ite neighborhood of Beirut, during the first days of the Second Lebanon War, before the air force knocked down multistory buildings where Hezbollah command centers had been set up. “This testifies to morality,” he argued.
The pair of moderators who related to his remarks disagreed with him. They said his statement testified to “stupidity, lack of morality, hesitancy.” All this has to change, they said. And who knows – maybe it is already changing.
The backing of subordinates has also been eroded to some extent in the fervor of the political disagreements. Every section of the right is trying to depict Gantz as a leftist, a wimpy Arab-lover and a failed commander. His functioning in Protective Edge, which was discussed here extensively last week, is the least of it. Now the denouncers are also harking back to the Joseph’s Tomb affair in Nablus in October 2000. Gantz, at the time the commander of the regional division, is being depicted today as the main person responsible for the abandonment of wounded border policeman Madhat Yusuf, who bled to death while waiting for rescue that did not arrive because the military establishment was expecting help from the Palestinian Authority. This, even though together with Gantz at the lookout post on Mount Gerizim were the IDF chief of staff and head of Central Command, along with a representative of the Shin Bet security service, all of them his superiors in the chain of command.
Avi Dichter, head of the Shin Bet at the start of the second intifada, chalked up a political success this week when he was elected to the 11th spot on the Likud slate for the Knesset. Dichter is definitely one of the more level-headed and fair-minded people on that list. Yet even he lost some self-control during primaries month. It’s not just the ridiculous video in which he dressed up as a Palestinian going back to the Muqata in Ramallah and teaching Abu Mazen – Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas – a lesson. At the height of the controversy over Gantz and Joseph’s Tomb, Dichter took care to clarify over Twitter that it wasn’t he, but rather his deputy, who was on the mountain on the day of the incident at Joseph’s tomb. Is Dichter trying to claim that as head of the Shin Bet, he did not take part at all in the decision-making process? Did his deputy act on his own? This was a demonstration of evasiveness, pretense of innocence and passing the buck that certainly arouses a great deal of discomfort among Shin Bet people, retired and active.

Turkey and Jordan united by regional crises
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/February 08/19
The Erdogans had breakfast with the royal couple followed by a closed-door meeting at the Vahdettin Pavilion overlooking the Bosporus. (AFP)
On the invitation of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Jordan’s King Abdullah paid a two-day visit to Turkey last weekend to discuss economic, military, cultural and political relations, as well as cooperation between the two countries.
The two leaders, along with their respective spouses, first met over dinner at the Tarabya Presidential Campus in Istanbul. On Sunday, the Erdogans had breakfast with the royal couple followed by a closed-door meeting at the Vahdettin Pavilion overlooking the Bosporus. During the visit, which took place in a warm atmosphere, several issues ranging from Palestine and the status of Jerusalem to Syria, Iraq and other regional developments were discussed, according to official statements. Needless to say, these are general statements that are often released following meetings between foreign leaders. In order to better understand the visit of King Abdullah to Turkey, it is important to look at recent developments in this politically fragile region.
The regional and international developments of the past decade have significantly affected both Turkey and Jordan. During the Arab uprisings, which changed the course of Middle Eastern history, Ankara and Amman found themselves on the same page due to the security threats emanating from the conflict in Syria — an immediate neighbor for both.
Jordan in particular stands at the center of the current regional conflicts, and it remains an essential country for the prospects of stability. It is a relatively small country, but its role in the region is far from negligible as it is a crucial actor in the fight against regional threats. The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE and Egypt met with their Jordanian counterpart in Jordan only last week, when they discussed the region’s crises and the ways they can cooperate to overcome them. A day before these talks, King Abdullah hosted the foreign diplomats in a separate meeting.
Both Ankara and Amman are aware there are several problems in the region that necessitate cooperation. First among them is Syria, where the two countries carry the heavy burden of war taking place on their doorstep. Though one cannot say there is strong cooperation between Turkey and Jordan on Syria, the fact is that they are the two countries most affected by the crisis. Jordan currently hosts almost 2 million Syrians, while Turkey has about double that figure, making it the largest host country for Syrian refugees.
The Palestine issue is something that cannot be ignored in Amman’s regional strategic calculations.
The vacuum that will be created by the US withdrawal from Syria is a common concern for all neighbors of Syria. King Abdullah’s visit came in the wake of Erdogan’s remarks that Turkey has maintained low-level contact with the Syrian regime through its spy agency. It also came at a time when Ankara decided to appoint a special representative to specifically handle the Syrian dossier at the Foreign Ministry, and after it had closed ranks with Russia over Syria’s constitutional committee.
Palestine, the increasing Iranian role in the region and instability in Iraq are the other issues of common concern regarding regional stability and security. Like many Western allies in the region, both Turkey and Jordan consider the rising Iranian influence to be problematic.
With regard to Palestine, the two countries are mostly on the same page. Both Ankara and Amman share a mutual stance in opposition to US President Donald Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as the Israeli capital, and both seek the end of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict through peaceful means.
For Turkey, the Palestinian cause is something far beyond any foreign policy issue and is different from any other Middle Eastern problem. This is due to the deep historical and ideological dimensions of the matter in the eyes of the Turkish people. Thus, Ankara’s Palestinian policy reflects the pulse of domestic politics and societal balances. The same applies to Jordan, as there are large numbers of Palestinian refugees who hold full Jordanian citizenship. Moreover, King Abdullah is officially the custodian of Muslim and Christian holy sites in Jerusalem. The Palestine issue is something that cannot be ignored in Amman’s regional strategic calculations.
In this regard, the Erdogan-King Abdullah meeting was crucial, as it provided a chance for both sides to once more highlight their concerns with the current developments in the region and discuss areas of cooperation. Amid the visit by the Jordanian king, meetings between ambassadors and officials of the two countries took place separately in Ankara and Amman. These meetings indicate that both countries seek to shape their foreign policies on mutual concerns, while also considering several areas of cooperation.
**Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz