LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 30/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
“If I speak in the tongues of mortals and of angels, but do not have love, I am a noisy gong or a clanging cymbal

Have you never read in the scriptures: “The stone that the builders rejected has become the cornerstone; this was the Lord’s doing, and it is amazing in our eyes”? Therefore I tell you, the kingdom of God will be taken away from you and given to a people that produces the fruits of the kingdom. The one who falls on this stone will be broken to pieces; and it will crush anyone on whom it falls.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 21/33-46/Listen to another parable. There was a landowner who planted a vineyard, put a fence around it, dug a wine press in it, and built a watch-tower. Then he leased it to tenants and went to another country. When the harvest time had come, he sent his slaves to the tenants to collect his produce. But the tenants seized his slaves and beat one, killed another, and stoned another. Again he sent other slaves, more than the first; and they treated them in the same way. Finally he sent his son to them, saying, “They will respect my son.”But when the tenants saw the son, they said to themselves, “This is the heir; come, let us kill him and get his inheritance.”So they seized him, threw him out of the vineyard, and killed him. Now when the owner of the vineyard comes, what will he do to those tenants?’ They said to him, ‘He will put those wretches to a miserable death, and lease the vineyard to other tenants who will give him the produce at the harvest time.’Jesus said to them, ‘Have you never read in the scriptures: “The stone that the builders rejected has become the cornerstone; this was the Lord’s doing, and it is amazing in our eyes”? Therefore I tell you, the kingdom of God will be taken away from you and given to a people that produces the fruits of the kingdom. The one who falls on this stone will be broken to pieces; and it will crush anyone on whom it falls.’ When the chief priests and the Pharisees heard his parables, they realized that he was speaking about them. They wanted to arrest him, but they feared the crowds, because they regarded him as a prophet.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 29-30/2019
Report: Aoun Wants Govt. on Monday but Shiite Duo Prefers to Wait
Raad Warns 'Strong' Parties to Control Lebanon if Chaos Prevails
Lebanese Judiciary Probing Reported Transfer Abroad of $2 Billion
Protesters Scuffle with Choucair’s Guards in Hamra
Al-Rahi Warns against Marginalizing 'Any Main Component in Lebanon'
Choucair comments on today's events
Progress Reported in Govt. Formation Talks
Protesters Rally at Diab's Home, Demand He Quits
Scandal of Lebanese Politicians’ Transfer of Billions of Dollars abroad ‘Confuses’ Banks/Youssef Diab/Asharq Al Awsat/December 29/2019
Lebanon’s vital tourism industry takes huge hit amid turmoil/Aj Naddaff /AP /December 29/2019
Endeavor Lebanon and LIFE leverage Lebanese diaspora to support high-impact entrepreneurs/Maysaa Ajjan/Annahar/December 29/2019

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 29-30/2019
US hits Iran-backed militia in Syria and Iraq in response to Kirkuk base attack
U.S. Strikes Kill 15 Pro-Iran Fighters in Iraq
US carries out ‘defensive strikes’ in Iraq, Syria against Iran-allied militia
Iraq beefs up security around air base in country’s west
Greece proposes World Court if maritime dialogue with Turkey fails
Two men shot dead in eastern Saudi city were driving car bomb, SPA says
Syrian fighters being recruited by Turkey to fight in Libya
Turkey’s top military advisor proposes mercenary force
Turkey to evacuate wounded after deadly Mogadishu blast
Turkey speeds up Libya troop deployment deal to prevent slide into 'chaos'
Iraq’s exports, production not affected by halting Nassiriya oilfield: ministry
Turkey Says Will Not Withdraw from Army Posts in Syria's Idlib
Stabbing at New York Rabbi's Home an 'Act of Terrorism'

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 29-30/2019
In Iran, It Is a Crime to Be a Christian/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/December 29/2019
Turkey’s Libyan adventure must be stopped to prevent war in the Mediterranean/Cyril Widdershoven/December 29/2019
Why is Iran silent on Israel’s attacks?/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/December 29/2019
Anti-Daesh coalition’s progress threatened by unilateral moves/Hafed Al-Ghwell /Arab News/December 29/2019
2020s global leadership: The future is young and female/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/December 29/2019
Turkey’s canal obsession could upset regional stability/Yasar Yakis/Arab News/December 29/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 29-30/2019
Report: Aoun Wants Govt. on Monday but Shiite Duo Prefers to Wait
Naharnet/December 29/2019
President Michel Aoun is insisting that the government line-up should be announced Monday, a day before New Year’s Eve, but the “Shiite duo”, especially Hizbullah, prefers to hold further consultations, MTV has reported. The TV network added that Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab’s talks over the past few days have led to some progress and that he has proposed that the new ministers be “non-prominent political party figures or figures close to these parties.”“An agreement has been reached on merging four ministerial portfolios and Diab does not want figures from the previous government, but this point is yet to be finalized,” MTV added.

Raad Warns 'Strong' Parties to Control Lebanon if Chaos Prevails
Naharnet/December 29/2019
The head of Hizbullah’s parliamentary bloc MP Mohammed Raad warned Sunday that the “strong” parties would control the country should chaos prevail. “Some want to implicate the Resistance is something it does not want, but it wants to practice a positive role so that the country does not collapse over the heads of everyone,” Raad said. “Those who want to be afraid must be afraid of the failure to form a government, because this would lead to chaos, and when the country descends into chaos, the strong parties will control it,” he warned.“We are trying to repair the falling wall but there are individuals who are still pushing this wall so that it falls, and this is our story with the government that is being formed,” Raad went on to say.

Lebanese Judiciary Probing Reported Transfer Abroad of $2 Billion
Naharnet/December 29/2019
The Lebanese judiciary has launched an investigation into reports claiming that nine Lebanese politicians have transferred $2 billion abroad over the past 15 days, a media report said. The judicial probe got underway simultaneously with the investigations that are being carried out by the central bank, Asharq al-Awsat newspaper reported Sunday. “Intensive investigations were launched Friday by the Central Criminal Investigations Bureau, under direct supervision by State Prosecutor Ghassan Ouweidat,” a senior judicial official told the daily. Authorities “listened to the testimony of the person who disclosed the information, financial expert Marwan Iskandar, who provided them with the information he knows,” the source added. “Things are being followed up and require further investigations in cooperation with the central bank and the Banking Control Commission of Lebanon,” the source said.
Iskandar meanwhile told Asharq al-Awsat that the money “was normally transferred and not smuggled as being rumored.”Faced with a grinding U.S. dollar liquidity crisis, Lebanon's banks have since September imposed increasingly tight restrictions on dollar withdrawals and transfers abroad in an attempt to conserve dwindling foreign currency reserves. Activists say ordinary depositors are footing the bill for a liquidity crisis worsened by politicians, senior civil servants and bank owners who used their influence to get their hefty savings out of the country. Iskandar revealed that a Swiss official has told him that the transferred money amounts to $2 billion and that it belong to “nine Lebanese politicians.”“What’s dangerous is that the sums were transferred over the past 15 days, during the peak of the liquidity crisis,” Iskandar explained. “The Swiss parliament has started a serious probe into the issue and it will publicize the results of this investigation once it is finished, and I don’t believe that the Lebanese side will obtain information before the end of the Swiss probe,” Iskandar added. “There is major difficulty in recovering funds sent abroad,” Iskandar said, reminding that the Philippines has failed to retrieve $2.5 billion transferred by a president who died 30 years ago and that Egypt has also failed to recover the funds sent abroad by ousted president Hosni Mubarak.

Protesters Scuffle with Choucair’s Guards in Hamra
Naharnet/December 29/2019
Anti-corruption protesters on Sunday scuffled with the guards of the house of caretaker Telecom Minister Mohammed Choucair in Beirut’s Hamra area. Protesters said the guards beat up a number of young men who tried to enter the building. Videos circulated online showed the presence of anti-riot police at the site. Protesters meanwhile shouted slogans through megaphones outside the building. According to the National News Agency, the protesters rallied to reject the extension of the contracts of Lebanon’s mobile telecom operators – touch and Alfa. “No Extension No Renewal”, they shouted.
A decision by Choucair to impose a tax on calls via internet apps such as WhatsApp was the spark that on October 17 ignited unprecedented street protests in Lebanon against the entire political class. The protests are still ongoing despite the swift reversal of the decision and the eventual resignation of Saad Hariri’s government.

Al-Rahi Warns against Marginalizing 'Any Main Component in Lebanon'
Naharnet/December 29/2019
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Sunday warned against “the exclusion or marginalization of any main component in Lebanon,” amid ongoing negotiations to form a new government. “Lebanon cannot be ruled through hegemony, confrontation or a one-sided government,” al-Rahi cautioned in his Sunday Mass sermon. “The sacrifices of the young men and women of this positive national uprising should be given their real value so that we don’t push them into despair,” the patriarch said. Despair would lead to “a negative and destructive revolt,” he warned. “That’s why we reiterate their demand for the formation of a government independent from the political parties which would bring together a harmonious team of competent and upright experts,” al-Rahi said. Such a government would “devise and implement a salvation plan under the supervision of parliament, which represents all the components of the Lebanese society,” he added.

Choucair comments on today's events
NNA/December 29/2019
The media office of the caretaker Minister of Telecommunications, Muhammad Choucair, condemned in a statement issued on Sunday "the way in which a group of demonstrators entered the building, where Minister Choucair resides," deeming it an attack on the sanctity of the building and its residents. The statement pointed out that "Choucair tried very hard to speak to this same group, when they entered in the same way to the meeting of economic bodies, but the way they follow and the difference in their opinion and the issues raised prevented the continuation of the dialogue." Finally, the statement indicated that "Minister Choucair called on the demonstrators to dialogue if they wanted, but on the basis of compliance with the law and the principle of respect."

Progress Reported in Govt. Formation Talks
Naharnet/December 29/2019
Progress has been made in the ongoing negotiations to form a new government, media reports said. An-Nahar newspaper said the progress was especially reported following PM-designate Hassan Diab’s meetings with President Michel Aoun and the political aides of Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Speaker Nabih Berri. “But the conferees decided to wait until after the New Year holiday to allow for further consultations, whether with those who have objections or with the components who back an agreement on the shape, shares and candidates of the government,” the daily added.

Protesters Rally at Diab's Home, Demand He Quits
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 29/2019
Dozens of protesters gathered outside the Beirut home of Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab overnight, calling for his resignation less than 10 days after he was appointed. Lebanon is without a cabinet and in the grips of a deepening economic crisis after a two-month-old protest movement forced Saad Hariri to stand down as prime minister on October 29. Anti-government protests continued after Hariri's resignation, while political parties negotiated for weeks before nominating Diab, a professor and former education minister, to replace him on December 19. Echoing protester demands, Diab promised to form a government of independent experts within six weeks -- in a country where appointing a cabinet can take months. But protesters on Saturday were unconvinced by his promise. "We're here to bring down Hassan Diab. He doesn't represent us. He's one of them," said one young demonstrator, referring to the country's ruling elite, who protesters despise collectively. Lina, another protester agreed, saying: "It's the revolution that must name the prime minister, not them."The 60-year-old Diab, who has a low public profile and styles himself as a technocrat, last week called protester demands legitimate but asked them to give him a chance to form "an exceptional government.""We are willing to give him a chance, but let us at least give him a roadmap," Lina told AFP. "The names don't matter to us, we want policy plans, what is his program?" she asked. Protesters decry Diab's participation as a minister in a government deemed corrupt. The support given to him by powerful Shiite movement Hizbullah also angers many protesters and pro-Hariri Sunnis. Protesters also gathered in the northern Sunni majority city of Tripoli on Saturday, an AFP photographer said. The protests and political deadlock have brought Lebanon to its worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war. The international community has urged a new cabinet to be formed swiftly to implement economic reforms and unlock international aid.

Scandal of Lebanese Politicians’ Transfer of Billions of Dollars abroad ‘Confuses’ Banks
Youssef Diab/Asharq Al Awsat/December 29/2019
Statements by financial expert, Dr. Marwan Iskandar, in which he revealed that Lebanese politicians transferred billions of dollars abroad, created confusion among the political, banking and even judicial circles and increased the anger of the popular uprising against Lebanon’s ruling class. This information has caused great resentment in Lebanon, especially as it comes at a time when banks are imposing tight restrictions on depositors’ withdrawals and prohibiting them from transferring any amount in foreign currencies abroad. This has affected merchants, who have to pay for imported goods, and even citizens who need to transfer money to their children studying abroad. In this regard, an emergency meeting of the Finance and Budget parliamentary committee was held on Thursday, in the presence of Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh, who announced after the talks that “investigations will be conducted in reports about officials and bankers making transfers abroad this year.” “We will do whatever the law allows us to, to check all the transfers that occurred in 2019 abroad, and whether there are suspicious funds,” he vowed. Meanwhile, a judicial source told Asharq Al-Awsat that intense investigations began on Friday by the Central Criminal Investigation Department, under the direct supervision of Beirut First Investigating Judge Ghassan Oueidat. The source explained that the investigation “began by listening to Iskandar’s statements about the information he revealed.”“The matter is being followed up and needs further investigations in cooperation with the Central Bank and the Banking Supervision Committee,” according to the source. In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Iskandar noted that “the amounts were transferred normally and not smuggled.”He revealed that a Swiss official informed him that the transferred funds amounted to two billion dollars, and they belonged to nine Lebanese politicians. “What’s dangerous is that the sums have been transferred in the last 15 days, at the height of the liquidity crisis,” Iskandar noted. He stressed that the Swiss parliament has begun a serious investigation into this matter, and it would publish the results once it is completed.

Lebanon’s vital tourism industry takes huge hit amid turmoil
Aj Naddaff | AP /December 29/2019
BEIRUT — Lebanon’s unprecedented economic and financial crisis has taken a huge toll on the hospitality sector, a mainstay of the Lebanese economy, with hundreds of restaurants closing and hotel occupancy plummeting.
In recent years, there has been talk about the tiny Mediterranean country heading toward economic bankruptcy akin to Greece’s 2009 crisis. But business owners said they really began to feel the economic crunch after protests swept the country in mid-October, paralyzing businesses with road closures and strikes as the crisis intensified.
The protests were initially ignited by new proposed taxes, but are largely about the three-decades long corruption and mismanagement stemming from the ruling political elite.
At a news conference in Beirut on Thursday, Pierre Achkar, president of the Lebanese Hotel Federation for Tourism, said more than 150,000 hotel owners, partners, employees and their families face an imminent threat due to the economic crisis.
“We dropped overnight from 100% to 4% occupancy (in October). November was the first full month after the unrest started, and we ended up with 10%,” Rami Sayess, regional vice president of Four Seasons Hotel, told The Associated Press.
Since 1997, the Central Bank had maintained a fixed exchange rate of 1,500 pounds to the U.S. dollar. But since the protests erupted, dollars have grown increasingly scarce as anxiety over political instability has caused more people to withdraw their money from the banks, fueling the worst financial crisis since the 1975-90 civil war. The dollars were often brought into the country by affluent investors who made large deposits for high interest rates and have been used interchangeably with the Lebanese pound. Local banks have also imposed unprecedented capital controls, exacerbating the economic condition and making it difficult for businesses to transfer salaries to employees.
As prices have risen amid the liquidity crisis, many business owners who used to pay their employees in U.S. dollars have switched to the Lebanese pound, or have cut back on their employees’ salaries.
“We have a lot of foreigners and expats working here and we couldn’t pay them in U.S. dollars, so they’ve been suffering a lot. There’s been a reduction in tips, too,” said Henri Farah, owner and CEO of Japanese sushi restaurant Kampai. Farah’s restaurant has dropped 50% in revenue over two months.
Today’s climate is starkly different compared to the “golden period” from 2009-2011, when the hospitality sector boomed and the number of tourists and revenues soared, according to Tony Ramy, president of Lebanon’s Syndicate of Owners of Restaurants, Cafés, Night-Clubs and Pastries in Lebanon.
Since then, instability related to the Syria war which started in 2011 has contributed to the country’s ailing economy. Tense ties between Lebanon and the Gulf countries who banned their nationals from visiting Lebanon for extended periods of time on various occasion since then, also negatively affect business.
In September, 130 businesses permanently closed, while in October, the number increased to 135 shutdowns. November witnessed another 200, said Ramy, citing the restaurant aggregator and food delivery startup Zomato, with whom he has a partnership.
December is typically a busy month for the tourism industry because of Christmas and holiday festivities. Many Lebanese expatriates who typically flock to Lebanon at this time of year are now reluctant because of the unrest. And because of the lack of bookings, brand hotels in Lebanon, such as Sheraton and Four Seasons, have begun sending Lebanese staff to other hotels in the region to lower expenses.
In the restaurant sector, business was down 70% in recent weeks, according to Maya Noun, general secretary of the syndicate of restaurant owners. Middle-end and high-end restaurants have been most damaged. Some outlets in the higher end Beirut districts of Gemmayzeh and Mar Mikhael are still making it because their clients are mainly youths who go out on a low budget for a drink or for a wallet-friendly meal.
Low-end restaurants are sustaining the least amount of losses largely because of delivery services, which many people consider less expensive.
Itidal al-Batal, owner of a small bakery in Beirut, said she’s “surviving” but had to cut her employees salaries by as much as 60% since the protests started. She said she has never seen so many hungry people. She put out bread and a sign on her restaurant’s doorstep that reads: “If you don’t have money don’t be embarrassed and leave your family without food. You’re welcome to take what you need.”
Soon after, people have been coming and making donations to the bakery for those in need.
*Copyright 2019 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Endeavor Lebanon and LIFE leverage Lebanese diaspora to support high-impact entrepreneurs
Maysaa Ajjan/Annahar/December 29/2019
The initiative, held in Beirut Digital District (BDD), seeks to bridge between the high potential of Lebanese scale-up companies and the opportunities for growth beyond the local market.
BEIRUT: The recent economic crisis has had crushing repercussions on Lebanon’s entrepreneurial ecosystem. Startups are finding it harder than ever to access local markets and expand to regional ones.
In an effort to alleviate the effects this crisis has had on the entrepreneurial sector, Endeavor Lebanon and Lebanese International Finance Executives (LIFE) organized a speed mentoring session targeting 15 high-growth companies Friday, 27 December, 2019.
The session was a joint effort to enhance the business opportunities between high-impact entrepreneurs and Lebanese investors, and strengthen the ties between the local entrepreneurial community and the Lebanese diaspora.
“Today, Lebanon's dim economic outlook poses a range of new challenges on these Lebanese scale-ups,” Endeavor Lebanon’s managing director, Christina Chehade, said in her opening remarks. “Hence our constant endeavor to pave the way for new openings that ensure continuity of this most active economic engine for the multiplier impact it generates.”“This form of networking would engender new avenues and draw on a wide range of perspectives for the growth to our entrepreneurs,” she added.
The initiative, held in Beirut Digital District (BDD), seeks to bridge between the high potential of Lebanese scale-up companies and the opportunities for growth beyond the local market.
Through the active involvement and shared expertise of the LIFE global business network, the focused networking discussions aim to actively support Endeavor Lebanon network companies
with business introductions and mentoring opportunities.
“We are delighted to avail our global network towards mentoring local enterprises and creating investment and employment opportunities, and most importantly, access to international markets,” LIFE board member and chair of the Promote pillar, Paul Raphael, said. “We believe in Lebanese human capital and we are committed to promoting the Lebanese brand equity beyond the borders of Lebanon.”The companies participating from within the Endeavor Lebanon network included major game players in the industry such as Arabnet, Flyfoot, FOO, HiCart, Neotic, NymCard, Royal Gourmet, SE Factory, Synkers, Topotrade, Toters, and Zima.The sessions featured 40 mentors from LIFE network, and participants were divided into work groups, each of which comprised one Lebanese company and three of LIFE’s specialist mentors.
The groups focused on ways to confront the challenges faced by these companies in light of the present economic circumstances in Lebanon. Sessions highlighted the significant role such companies play in catalyzing the local economy, particularly given the fact that they generate 60% more revenues and jobs on average than small and medium-sized local firms. The format of the event allowed the participating companies to interact directly with LIFE mentors who shared their global experience and outlook, reflecting on the companies’ plans and challenges, particularly with regards to attracting capital and scaling and developing expansion prospects outside the country.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 29-30/2019
US hits Iran-backed militia in Syria and Iraq in response to Kirkuk base attack
The National/December 29/2019
Strikes on five Kataib Hezbollah locations
The US has struck five Kataib Hezbollah targets in Iraq and Syria in response to recent attacks on its personnel in bases in Iraq, the Department of Defense said on Sunday. Kataib Hezbollah has "strong links" with Iran's Quds Force and "has repeatedly received lethal aid and other support from Iran that it has used to attack [Operation Inherent Resolve] coalition forces", said a statement from Jonathan Hoffman, Assistant to the Secretary of Defense. Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) is the American-led coalition to fight ISIS. One US civilian contractor was killed and four American forces were wounded on Friday in a multiple rocket attack on a joint base in Kirkuk. The US said on Sunday that the five targets struck included three Kataib Hezbollah locations in Iraq and two in Syria, including weapon storage facilities "and command and control locations that KH uses to plan and execute attacks on OIR coalition forces".
The US also warned that if Iran and its proxies do not stop their attacks then there could be additional actions by its forces.US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has previously blamed Iranian proxies in the country for launching an attack at a joint facility in Baghdad on December 9. No group claimed responsibility for the Kirkuk base attack but US officials speaking anonymously to Reuters stated they were looking into the “possible involvement” of Kataib Hezbollah. The group is led by Iraqi-Iranian Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a leader within the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) who previously worked with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard in opposition to Saddam Hussein. ISIS operates in the area neighbouring the site of the military base, and have increasingly been using insurgency in as it attempts to regain a foothold in the province. US Defense Secretary Mark Esper had also expressed concern about the attacks on bases in Iraq where US troops and material might be, to the outgoing Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi. "Secretary Esper and Prime Minister Mahdi have shared with each other their commitment to see these KH attacks on ISF and OIR forces cease once and for all," the defence department said on Sunday.

U.S. Strikes Kill 15 Pro-Iran Fighters in Iraq
Agence France Presse/Annahar/December 29/2019
Fifteen fighters, including commanders, were killed Sunday night in U.S. strikes against a pro-Iran armed group in western Iraq, an official from the Tehran-backed Hashed al-Shaabi paramilitary told AFP. The official said several fighters were also wounded in the strikes, which the Pentagon said targeted the Iraqi Kata'ib Hezbollah in response to a barrage of 30 or more rockets that was fired on Friday at an Iraqi military base, killing a U.S. civilian contractor. Repeated mortar and rocket attacks have since late October targeted American interests in the country, where the U.S. has 5,200 troops deployed as part of the international coalition against the Islamic State jihadist group. The Pentagon said in a statement it had carried out strikes against five Kata'ib Hezbollah facilities -- three in Iraq and two in neighboring Syria. U.S.-Iran tensions have soared since Washington pulled out of a landmark nuclear agreement with Tehran last year and imposed crippling sanctions. Baghdad -- which is close to both countries -- risks being caught in the middle. In Iraq's neighbor Syria, Shiite powerhouse Iran backs the government of President Bashar al-Assad in an eight-year civil war.

US carries out ‘defensive strikes’ in Iraq, Syria against Iran-allied militia
Reuters/Sunday, 29 December 2019/
The US military has carried out “defensive strikes” in Iraq and Syria against Kataib Hezbollah militia group, American officials told Reuters. The US strikes in Iraq and Syria targeted five Kataib Hezbollah facilities, including weapon storage facilities and command and control locations, the US military statement said. Several militia fighters were killed in the air strike on western Iraqi base, according to Iraqi military and militia sources. The air strike, likely carried out using drones, targeted Iran-allied Kataib Hezbollah militia, the sources said.A US official had said on Friday the United States was looking into the possible involvement of Kataib Hezbollah in a rocket attack on an Iraqi military base that killed a US civilian contractor and wounded US service members and Iraq personnel.

Iraq beefs up security around air base in country’s west
The Associate Press, Iraq/Sunday, 29 December 2019
An Iraqi general said Sunday that security has been beefed up around the Ain al-Asad air base, a sprawling complex in the western Anbar desert that hosts US forces, following a series of attacks. Maj. Gen. Raad Mahmoud told The Associated Press that investigations were still underway to determine who was behind the unclaimed attacks on bases across Iraq, including one earlier this month in which five rockets landed inside Ain al-Asad. A US defense contractor was killed Friday in a rocket attack at a different Iraqi military compound near Kirkuk where US service members are based. Several American and Iraqi troops were also wounded. US officials said the attack involved as many as 30 rockets. US officials have for the most part blamed Iran-backed fighters for these attacks. Iraq has been roiled since October 1 by anti-government protests that have left more than 450 people dead. The vast majority of those who died were demonstrators killed by security forces firing tear gas and live ammunition. The mass uprisings prompted the resignation of former Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi late last month. Meanwhile, the Iraqi Joint Operations Command announced Sunday the start of a military operation to pursue the remnants of ISIS in five different areas in the country. The eighth phase of the operation, code named “Will of Victory,” would cover areas in Mosul, Kirkuk, Diyala, Salahaddin, and al-Jazeera provinces. The paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces and local tribal militias are also participating in the operations, with air cover from the Iraqi air force and the Coalition air force, according to a statement issued Sunday. Iraq declared victory over ISIS two years ago, but they still carry out sporadic attacks in parts of the country.

Greece proposes World Court if maritime dialogue with Turkey fails
Reuters, Athens/Sunday, 29 December 2019
Greece’s Prime Minister said in remarks published on Sunday that if Athens and Ankara cannot solve their dispute about maritime zones in the Mediterranean they should turn to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague to settle the disagreement. Turkey signed an accord with Libya’s internationally recognized government last month that seeks to create an exclusive economic zone from Turkey’s southern Mediterranean shore to Libya’s northeast coast. Greece and Cyprus, which have long had maritime and territorial disputes with Turkey, say the accord is void and violates the international law of the sea. They see it as a cynical resource-grab designed to scupper the development of East Mediterranean gas and destabilize rivals. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, in an interview with weekly newspaper ‘To Vima’, said his intention is for Greece and Turkey to discuss their differences about maritime zones in the Aegean and east Mediterranean on a political and diplomatic level. “But we should say clearly that if we can’t find a solution then we should agree that the one difference that Greece recognizes (over maritime zones) must be judged in an international body like the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in Hague.” Earlier in December, Cyprus petitioned the ICJ to safeguard its offshore mineral rights. There has been no response so far from Turkey to that initiative. Cyprus’s internationally recognised government discovered offshore gas in 2011 but has been at loggerheads with Turkey over maritime zones around the island, where it has granted licenses to multinational companies for oil and gas research. Turkey, which does not have diplomatic relations with Cyprus’s government, says that some areas Nicosia operates in are either on the Turkish continental shelf, or in areas where the breakaway Turkish Cypriot state has rights over any finds. It has sent its own drill ships to the island.

Two men shot dead in eastern Saudi city were driving car bomb, SPA says
Reuters/NNA/Sunday, 29 December 2019
Two Saudi men shot dead last week in the eastern city of Dammam were driving a car loaded with explosives and were planning an "imminent terrorist operation," the SPA state news agency said Sunday, citing security forces. The two were found with explosive paste in the car, SPA said. They started shooting at security forces when they were approached on Wednesday and were shot dead. Five kilograms of paste was taken from the car and found later to contain the explosive RDX, SPA said. Police named the two men and said a third unnamed man had been arrested. ---

Syrian fighters being recruited by Turkey to fight in Libya
Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 29 December 2019
Turkey is recruiting Syrian-based militia to fight in Libya under the command of Turkish and Syrian officers, the Syrian Observatory reported. Recruitment centers in the Afrin region to the north of Aleppo were set up by pro-Turkish Syrian factions to register names of those interested in fighting in Libya, the non-government group said on Sunday. The factions offered salaries ranging from $1,800 - $2,000 a month, in addition to “providing services that the host country guarantees,” it added. Opposition figures, including a leading member of the opposition Syrian National Council Berhan Ghalyoun, said in a statement they condemned any Syrian who agrees to fight abroad regardless of the temptations. “Syrians revolted for their freedom and dignity and to build their national democratic system… The Syrians did not take up arms to turn into mercenaries fighting in the wars of others outside their land and outside the foundations of their revolution,” the statement said. Turkey’s embattled President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced Thursday plans to send troops to Libya in response to a request from the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), which is backed by a plethora of militias including groups linked to Al Qaeda.
The Turkish move raises the stakes in Libya’s civil war, where the Libyan National Army, led by General Khalifa Haftar, launched an offensive against the GNA in April. Backed by several European powers and moderate Gulf Arab states, Haftar vows to end the rule of militias.

Turkey’s top military advisor proposes mercenary force
Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 29 December 2019
Turkey’s top military advisor has suggested that the government should establish a private military company to train mercenaries, according to the Independent’s Turkey edition. His remarks came days after Turkey signed a military pact with Libya. The proposal adds to concerns about Turkey’s intentions in Libya, where Ankara has proposed sending troops to fight alongside the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) and a plethora of militias including extremist groups associated with Al Qaeda. The GNA is fighting against the forces of General Khalifa Haftar, from the east of the country, who receives support from several European powers and moderate Gulf states opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood and other radical Islamist groups.Chief military advisor and retired Gen. Adnan Tanriverdi, owner of the private military contractor SADAT, supported the idea of establishing a mercenary company that operates abroad, elaborating in an interview with the Independent’s Turkey edition on how such a private army would be formed. “Absolutely, Turkey needs a private company like Blackwater or Wagner,” Tanriverdi was reported as saying, indicating that it would be a new tool in Turkey’s foreign policy. Wagner is a paramilitary group whose contractors have reportedly taken part in conflicts including the Russian occupation of eastern Ukraine, Syria and elsewhere. Blackwater contractors supported the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and subsequently was found guilty of shooting unarmed civilians.
Libya has been divided since 2014 into rival military and political camps based in the capital Tripoli and the east. The Libyan National Army, backed by the government based in Benghazi, has been prosecuting an offensive on the capital Tripoli.
Earlier this month, Erdogan announced that he would send troops to support the GNA defend Tripoli. Tanriverdi said the deployment could bypass any kind of international agreement. The combat power of the proposed private army would be significant since it would consist of experienced retired soldiers, provided that it was properly commanded, he was reported as saying. According to Tanriverdi, materiel and weapons would be provided by the Turkish army. Tanriverdi likened sending mercenaries abroad to exports, something also good for the economy, rather than deploying troops and officers from the Turkish army. Turkish lawmaker and former Ambassador to Italy Aydin Adnan Sezgin opposed the Libya deal in a debate in parliament, saying it was designed to bypass the legislature in sending troops abroad. Sezgin also accused the Erdogan government of looking for ways to transfer terrorists in Syria’s Idlib region to Libya, the Times reported. Another Turkish lawmaker and former ambassador to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Ahmet Ahmet Kamil Erozan, spoke at the same parliamentary session and pointed out that there were differences in the agreement’s wording in Turkish, English and Arabic that could be deceptive. Turkey signed an accord with GNA Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj last month that seeks to create an exclusive economic zone from Turkey’s southern Mediterranean shore to Libya’s northeast coast. According to the United Nations, Turkey has already supplied military equipment to forces loyal to the GNA, including tanks and drones.

Turkey to evacuate wounded after deadly Mogadishu blast
Reuters, Mogadishu/Sunday, 29 December 2019
A Turkish military cargo plane landed in the Somali capital on Sunday to evacuate people badly wounded in a devastating truck bombing in the city a day earlier that killed at least 90 people including two Turkish nationals. The plane also brought emergency medical staff and supplies, according to a tweet from the Turkish embassy, adding these had been transferred to a Turkish-run hospital in Mogadishu. Somali Information Minister Mohamed Abdi Hayir Mareye told state media that 10 badly injured Somalis would be evacuated to Turkey. He added that Turkey had sent 24 doctors to treat those wounded who would not be evacuated. Saturday’s blast, at a busy checkpoint during rush hour in Mogadishu, was the deadliest in war-torn Somalia in more than two years. No-one immediately claimed responsibility, although the city’s mayor blamed al-Qaeda-linked extremist group al Shabaab. The dead included many students from a university in the city, authorities said. A Reuters witness at Mogadishu airport saw 10 injured Somalis and the bodies of two dead Turks loaded on the plane. The bombing was the 20th vehicle-borne explosives attack of 2019 in Somalia and the year is ending with more deaths from such attacks than 2018, according to the Hiraal Institute, a Mogadishu-based security-think tank. Grieving families on Sunday arranged burials and funerals for their loved ones, having endured the anguish of identifying charred corpses and body fragments at the blast site and at hospitals around the city.

Turkey speeds up Libya troop deployment deal to prevent slide into 'chaos'
Reuters, Ankara/Sunday, 29 December 2019
Turkey's foreign minister warned that the Libyan conflict risks sliding into chaos and becoming the next Syria, as he sought to speed up legislation to allow it to send troops to the North African country. Libya'sUN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli has been struggling to fend off Libyan General Khalifa Haftar's forces. “If today Libya becomes like Syria, then the turn will come for the other countries in the region,” Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Saturday at a meeting of the governing AK Party. “We need to do whatever is needed to prevent Libya from being divided and slide into chaos, and that is what we are doing. It is the legitimate government there that we deal with,” he said, stressing the military and security deal signed with Libya is important. Cavusoglu will meet with three opposition party leaders on Monday and the government is expected to discuss the motion within the coming week.

Iraq’s exports, production not affected by halting Nassiriya oilfield: ministry
Agencies/Sunday, 29 December 2019
The halting of output from the Nassiriya oilfield in Southern Iraq will not affect the second-largest OPEC producer’s exports and production, the country’s oil ministry said.To compensate for the lost output, Iraq will pump more oil from fields in the Basra province, the ministry said. Protesters broke into the Nassiriya oilfield on Saturday and forced employees to cut off electricity from its control station, taking the field offline until further notice, a security source and two oil sources told Reuters.The oilfield produces 90,000 barrels a day (bpd) of crude. The incident marked the first time protesters shut an entire oilfield, though they have blocked entrances to refineries and ports in the past. Iraq’s economy depends on oil exports which make up more than 90 percent of its revenues.--With Reuters

Turkey Says Will Not Withdraw from Army Posts in Syria's Idlib
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 29/2019
Turkey will not withdraw from its observation posts in Syrian rebel bastion province of Idlib which has seen an increase in violence carried out by regime forces supported by Russian airstrikes, the defense minister said. The posts were established under a September 2018 deal between Syrian regime ally Moscow and Ankara, which backs the rebels, to avert an all-out Syrian government onslaught in Idlib. Government forces surrounded one of 12 Turkish observation post in Idlib province on Monday after overrunning nearby areas in a push to take the last opposition holdout, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. "We respect the agreement reached with Russia and we expect Russia to abide by this agreement," Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said in comments published on Sunday on the defense ministry's Twitter account.
"We will by no means empty those 12 observation posts, we will not leave there," Akar said. His comments came during a visit together with top army commanders to the southern province of Hatay on the Syrian border to inspect Turkish troops on Saturday.
Turkey, worried over a new wave of refugees from the Idlib region, is pressing for a fresh ceasefire deal, as it sent a delegation to Moscow on Monday. Akar's visit to soldiers on the border region comes as Turkey is also readying to send troops to support the U.N.-recognized government in Tripoli against strongman Khalifa Haftar's self-styled Libyan National Army. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday said Ankara would respond to an invitation from the Libyan national unity government and Turkish parliament would vote on a motion to send troops as soon as it returns from recess as early as next month. Ankara signed in November a security and military cooperation deal with the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) but in order to send troops, parliament needs to vote a motion like it does for Iraq and Syria. The official Anadolu news agency, citing sources in Erdogan's ruling party, reported that the timetable could be brought forward and the motion could be presented to parliament speaker's office on Monday. The General Assembly could vote the measure in an extraordinary session on Thursday, it said.

Stabbing at New York Rabbi's Home an 'Act of Terrorism'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 29/2019
A stabbing attack that wounded five people at a rabbi's house in a New York suburb during celebrations for the Jewish festival of Hanukkah was "an act of terrorism," the state governor said Sunday. Local media reported that a man with a machete entered the rabbi's property in Monsey, Rockland County on Saturday evening, knifing several people before fleeing. Police said a suspect was later arrested. "This is an act of terrorism. I think these are domestic terrorists. They are trying to inflict fear," New York Governor Andrew Cuomo told reporters after the latest in a spate of attacks against Jewish targets.
"They're motivated by hate. They are doing mass attacks. These are terrorists in our country perpetrating terrorism on other Americans, and that's how we should treat it." Last year a white supremacist walked into a Pittsburgh synagogue and killed 11 people -- the deadliest attack against the Jewish community in the United States. Earlier this month six people, including two suspects, were killed in a Jersey City shooting at a kosher deli, which authorities said was fueled in part by anti-Semitism. A report in April from the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) stated that the number of anti-Semitic attacks in 2018 was close to the record of 2017, with 1,879 incidents. "I was praying for my life," said witness Aron Kohn, 65, according to the New York Times, comparing the knife used by the attacker to "the size of a broomstick". Kohn also threw chairs and tables in an attempt to head off the attacker, he told CNN.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 29-30/2019
In Iran, It Is a Crime to Be a Christian
د.ماجد رافيزادا: أن تكون مسيحياً في إيران، فهذه جريمة
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/December 29/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/81853/%d8%af-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%ac%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%81%d9%8a%d8%b2%d8%a7%d8%af%d8%a7-%d8%a3%d9%86-%d8%aa%d9%83%d9%88%d9%86-%d9%85%d8%b3%d9%8a%d8%ad%d9%8a%d8%a7%d9%8b-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7/
Three of the Islamist judges known to preside over the trials of Christians are Mashallah Ahmadzadeh, Mohammed Moghiseh, and Ahmad Zargar. The international community needs to consider imposing sanctions on them.
Converts to Christianity from Islam, according the Iran's Islamic law, can face the death penalty. The Iranian Islamist judges generally resort to verses from the Quran and Hadith (Muhammad's sayings and acts) to justify their verdicts.
Iran systematically violates the U.S. International Religious Freedom Act and this is why, since 1999, the U.S. has designated the Islamic Republic as a "Country of Concern."
Under international law, the Iranian government has an obligation to respect freedom of religion. Yet, while Christians are being increasingly persecuted and their rights are violated in Iran at an unprecedented level, the international community still remains silent.
The Islamic Republic of Iran is unleashing a sweeping crackdown on Christians, particularly those who have dared to convert from Islam to Christianity.
Most recently, nine Christians in Iran, possibly converts, have been convicted by the Islamic court, and each sentenced to five years in prison. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) arrested them for attending church services at a private house. According to a report by Article 18, an Iranian NGO which promotes religious freedom:
"The arresting officers introduced themselves as agents from the Ministry of Intelligence (MOIS).
"They stormed the Christians' homes in a coordinated operation at around 9am, confiscating Bibles, Christian literature, wooden crosses and pictures carrying Christian symbols, along with laptops, phones, all forms of identity cards, bank cards and other personal belongings.
"Arresting agents also searched the work offices of at least two Christians and confiscated computer hard drives and security-camera recordings."
Christian families are generally dehumanized and humiliated in the community during the agent's raids. As the Article 18 report explained, "The officers are reported to have treated the Christians harshly, even though small children were present during the arrests."
Across Iran, Christians are being arrested and jailed on trumped-up charges, such as "promoting Zionism", "spreading corrupt Christians beliefs", "propagating against the Islamic Republic in favor of Christianity", "orientation toward the land of Christianity," or "endangering national security". Open Doors USA stated that one particular charge -- "acting against national security" -- is often used by the Iranian authorities "to prosecute Christians for their house church activities."
The claim of Iranian leaders that the peaceful religious practices of a minority group pose a grave a threat to national security is totally unacceptable. Iran's total population is roughly 80 million, with anywhere between 117,000 and 3 million being Christian, according to various estimates. Even though Christians make up an extremely small part of the population, however, they have always been viewed, under the Islamic law of Iran, as a threat to "national security".
The activities of Christians in the Islamic Republic are closely monitored by the Iranian intelligence service (MOIS) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG). They are not permitted to share their faith with others or to conduct church services in Farsi, Iran's national language.
It is important to hold accountable those Iranian individuals and institutions who are responsible for persecuting Christians.
Three of the Islamist judges known to preside over the trials of Christians are Mashallah Ahmadzadeh, Mohammed Moghiseh, and Ahmad Zargar. The international community needs to consider imposing sanctions on them
The NGO International Christian Concern (ICC) submitted the names of these judges to the US Treasury for consideration of sanctions. ICC stated:
"These three Revolutionary Court judges, and Evin Prison, have a long record of human rights abuses toward Iranian Christians. The judges are responsible for convicting Christians on trumped up charges. They wield Iran's legal system as a systemic tool of repression against religious minorities. Often, when Christians stand firm in their faith, Iran's judges send them to the notorious Evin Prison, located on the outskirts of Tehran. Stories of those who survived Evin Prison are heartbreaking; the wide variety of abuse faced by inmates is chilling."
Converts to Christianity from Islam, according the Iran's Islamic law, can face the death penalty. The Iranian Islamist judges generally resort to verses from the Quran and Hadith (Muhammad's sayings and acts) to justify their verdicts. One particular verse in Qur'an states:
"They wish you would disbelieve as they disbelieved so you would be alike. So do not take from among them allies until they emigrate for the cause of Allah. But if they turn away, then seize them and kill them wherever you find them and take not from among them any ally or helper." (Qur'an 4:89)
A hadith attributed to Muhammad says: "Whoever changed his Islamic religion, then kill him".
Even though the international community labels the government of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani as a moderate administration, and even though Rouhani claims that the Islamic Republic treats all religions justly and fairly, Iran is one of the worst places in the world for Christians. According to the World Watch List compiled by Open Doors USA, Iran is currently ranked as the ninth-worst country for faith-based persecution. Iran systematically violates the U.S. International Religious Freedom Act and this is why, since 1999, the U.S. has designated the Islamic Republic as a "Country of Concern."
Under international law, the Iranian government has an obligation to respect freedom of religion. Yet, while Christians are being increasingly persecuted and their rights are violated in Iran at an unprecedented level, the international community still remains silent.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US foreign policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Turkey’s Libyan adventure must be stopped to prevent war in the Mediterranean
Cyril Widdershoven/Sunday, 29 December 2019
The simmering crisis in the East Mediterranean, threatening a military confrontation between Turkey and the littoral states Cyprus, Greece, Egypt and Israel, has taken a perilous new turn with Turkey’s military and political alliance with Libya’s embattled government in Tripoli.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s move to open a new alliance with Tripoli comes on top of his power projection in the resource-rich Eastern Mediterranean, Syria and Iraq. The move to open a maritime bridge from Turkey to Libya comes shortly after Ankara and the UN-recognized Libyan government signed an illegal Economic Exclusion Zone agreement. It is an attempt to split the Eastern Mediterranean region into two blocks, preventing not only the offshore gas developments around Cyprus, Israel, Egypt and Greece, but also the highly anticipated Eastern Mediterranean gas pipeline project to Europe.With one stroke, Erdogan showed not only a willingness to reinforce his claims on already disputed international waters, but also moves into the Libyan conundrum. By setting up a military cooperation with the Government of National Accord, currently fighting a losing game with the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Khalifa Haftar, Ankara has laid a claim to a strategic beachhead in North Africa where regional and global powers are already major players.
Turkey’s willingness to send Turkish troops to support the GNA against Haftar risks a direct military confrontation with Libya’s mighty neighbor Egypt, and Haftar’s supporters include several European powers and moderate Middle Eastern states opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood and other radical Islamist groups. Since Ankara has thrown its weight behind Iran, Qatar, the Muslim Brotherhood and other radical networks, this latest international move poses a serious threat to the interests of moderate Middle Eastern states, Europe and the United States.
The potential for a total regional conflict is there. The stakes have been raised by Ankara again. After confronting international oil companies, such as Italian operator ENI, French partner Total or US-based ExxonMobil in their drilling operations offshore Cyprus, Ankara now has stepped up its power projections even outside the Eastern Mediterranean. Erdogan recently stated that Turkish military drones will be based on the territory of the “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRC)”, which is the Turkish occupied part of Cyprus, while indicating that a larger military base will be built very soon, together with a full-scale naval base.
Ankara’s statements are officially a reaction to lifting of military sales sanctions on Cyprus by the US Congress. A feverish diplomatic and military consultation process is currently underway between the Eastern Mediterranean party countries to block any military Turkish operations in the area. Egypt, Greece and Israel already have committed themselves to take action against Turkey in case of any incursion. American, French and Italian naval forces are also heading to the region to put pressure on Ankara.
Erdogan seems impervious to the threats. On Thursday last week, he threatened to send Turkish troops to fight Haftar and take control of the North African country. Some years ago, such a statement might have been dismissed as a bluff, but looking at Erdogan’s Ottoman dreams, as shown in Iraq and Syria, there is a good chance Erdogan is deadly serious.
The risk Erdogan is taking in Libya is exponentially larger than with his operations in Syria. The US, EU and NATO will be watching with a wary eye, while moderate Arab powers of the Gulf will definitely confront such a movement on the ground. For Ankara, a Libyan operation will be costly, dangerous and not easy to put in place. Arab powers, and even Israel, will be willing to block or confront Turkish movements on the ground, offshore or in the air. NATO will not support Ankara, as it is a unilateral move. A Turkish military presence in the southern core of the Mediterranean would be an unwelcome development for many NATO members including Greece, France and Italy.
The first weeks of January could be crucial. If Ankara goes through with its military plans, the Libyan civil war will take on stronger regional dimensions. It could escalate quickly and also trigger outbreaks of violence in the Eastern Mediterranean. It is time to bring Erdogan back into line. Economic sanctions should be imposed immediately. Erdogan must be forced to acknowledge that his military adventure in Libya is a reckless and irresponsible move.

Why is Iran silent on Israel’s attacks?
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/December 29/2019
Israel inflicted several blows on the Iranian regime in 2019, including in the last week, with cruise missiles reportedly launched towards Iranian and Syrian military positions near the latter’s capital, Damascus.
In August and November, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck dozens of Iranian targets in Syria, and carried out a series of airstrikes in northern Baghdad a few months ago. According to reports, several Iranians have been killed and wounded in these airstrikes.
The Islamic Republic is known for immediate retaliation, usually resorting to military responses power in such situations. But on these strikes, the regime has remained silent. The only response coming out of Tehran is heightened rhetoric.
Abbas Nilforoushan, the deputy commander of operations of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), threatened in an interview with the Iranian news agency Tasnim: “Israel is not in a position to threaten Iran. Iran has encircled Israel from all four sides. Nothing will be left of Israel.” Another deputy commander, Hossein Salami, called Tel Aviv “vulnerable and bringing itself closer to death.”
This begs the question why Iran has not yet responded militarily to Israel’s airstrikes against its bases and proxies in Syria and Iraq. The main reason lies in the fact that the Iranian authorities are currently fighting for their own survival, as the regime is mired with various problems and has been cornered from every possible direction.
Tehran has not faced so many challenges at once since its establishment in 1979. Domestically speaking, the regime appears to be in a constant state of emergency. For every round of protests that it crushes with brute force, the next one spreads. In the latest demonstration, around 1,500 people were killed by security forces, including, according to Reuters: “At least 17 teenagers and about 400 women, as well as some members of the security forces and police.”
Regionally speaking, the regime is also having a difficult time maintaining its strategic advantage, popularity and influence in the Shiite communities in Arab states, particularly in Iraq and Lebanon, where people have also been protesting against Iranian proxies and interference.
Even some officials and commanders have asserted that the government’s hold on power is in danger. That is why the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called on security forces to crush the protesters: “You have my order. Do whatever it takes to end it.”
Unemployment is high, inflation continues to skyrocket, and the currency is crashing. The Statistical Center for Iran (SCI) reported that the country’s overall inflation rate is 47.2 percent, with the inflation rate for food and fuel as high as 63.5 percent. This means that the cost of living has increased by almost 50 percent in 2019 while wages remained the same, and many out of work.
The Iranian regime has also been closely monitoring social media outlets to detect calls for demonstrations across the country. Last week, the authorities restricted access to the internet and shut down mobile connectivity ahead of potential protests — which, with many wishing to commemorate those who lost their lives in November, are only intensifying.
Regionally speaking, the regime is also having a difficult time maintaining its strategic advantage, popularity and influence in the Shiite communities in Arab states, particularly in Iraq and Lebanon, where people have also been protesting against Iranian proxies and interference. Six Gulf countries have also joined hands to impose sanctions on banks, individuals and dozens of corporations, which are linked to Tehran’s support for militant groups, including Hezbollah.
On the global stage, the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal and the subsequent re-imposition of sanctions on energy, banking and financial sectors have imposed significant pressure on the Islamic Republic. Due to the US policy of “maximum pressure” as well as the Trump administration’s decision not to extend its waiver for Iran’s eight biggest oil buyers — China, India, Greece, Italy, Taiwan, Japan, Turkey and South Korea — Tehran’s economy has taken a major beating. The regime is finding it extremely difficult to pursue its military adventurism and fund its proxies across the region.
European powers have also been mirroring Washington’s campaign. France, Germany and the UK have stepped up pressure on Iran over uranium enrichment and centrifuge development. The EU has also pressured Tehran for its ballistic missile activity, declaring “Iran’s developments of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and related technologies is inconsistent” with its obligations under UN resolution 2231.
In sum, Iran has been silent amid the IDF’s attacks on it because there is little, really, it can do. The regime has to prioritize its resources as it fights for its survival on all fronts, domestically and abroad.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is an Iranian-American political scientist and president of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh.

Anti-Daesh coalition’s progress threatened by unilateral moves
Hafed Al-Ghwell /Arab News/December 29/2019
For the 81-member Global Coalition Against Daesh, the events of March and October delivered on critical objectives, having wrested Daesh’s last territory and killed its notorious leader, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, respectively. At its height, Daesh controlled more than 50,000 square kilometers of territory in Syria and Iraq, covering a population of roughly 4 million people, and boasted pledges of allegiances from sympathetic groups in Africa, Asia and the Caucasus.
Financially, the group operated on an annual budget of some $1 billion, buoyed by illegal oil sales, as well as trafficking people, arms, drugs, and blood antiquities, bringing in revenues of nearly $2 billion a year, which went on supporting a fighting force of some 200,000 men, 15 percent being foreign-born. The scale and complexities of the group’s foundations and ambitions made Daesh a formidable, atypical insurgency group; one that had no qualms broadcasting its aims, justifying them in religious writ, laying the groundwork for them and proceeding to capture those objectives.
In an increasingly non-interventionist, casualty-averse, war-weary world, exhausted by failures in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, tackling the Daesh threat required a different approach beyond bullets, bombs and boots on the ground. Daesh’s emergence revealed a critical flaw in overseas interventions that focused on immediate deliverables at the expense of post-war stabilization efforts that could prevent the creation of power vacuums or cracks that are prized by extremist groups. The resulting strategy left the sophisticated aspects of war to the advanced militaries, while the gritty ground-level fighting was carried out by a loose coalition of armed non-state actors and paramilitary forces operating in Syria and Iraq. It capitalized on a mutual interest — the defeat of a common enemy — by a means that spared Western governments from negative public opinion baths, while inadvertently legitimizing the agendas of local partners, some of whom have controversial notions of political oppression or greater autonomy and even outright secession as their foundational principles.
For now, the global anti-Daesh coalition of countries and organizations from five of the world’s six continents still holds and shows no sign of slowing efforts to counter the terrorist group’s re-emergence. These include stabilizing the regions that made Daesh’s growth inevitable in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, while also denying access to funding for its remnants, countering its poisonous ideology and propaganda, and curtailing recruitment efforts by preventing the movement of foreign terrorist fighters. These goals recognize that extremism does not exist in a vacuum. Failure to mitigate its indirect causes and propagating factors would inevitably lead to a return of a prescient, insidious Daesh (or even other extremist groups), bathed in the knowledge and experiences of predecessors.
Unfortunately, recent moves by the US and Turkey, as well outside interference in Libya’s civil war, threaten to undo all the progress that has been achieved so far. The decision, for example, to recall US military personnel from parts of the region handicaps international efforts aimed at ensuring extremist groups like Daesh, the White Flags, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham and Al-Qaeda are denied opportunities to expand their influence in vulnerable regions. It may even lead to an abrupt end to Combined Joint Task Force — Operation Inherent Resolve training programs for the Iraqi army to enhance security and stabilization. Beyond that, it contravenes the US Department of Defense's Stabilization, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction Operations, which are designed to minimize military interventions by maximizing coalitions, multi-nation cooperation and boosting partners in the host nation. In essence, if Washington is the key to keeping a diverse mix of nations, partners and interests focused on counterinsurgency operations and regional stabilization, this sudden withdrawal will result in a return to the sort of turmoil and instability that birthed Daesh in the first place.
It cannot be stressed enough that America’s involvement is needed now more than ever. Although Daesh has been “defeated” territorially, it remains a potent ideological force that former fighters and detainees are not readily abandoning despite revoked citizenships and horrific conditions in detention camps. Even the death of Al-Baghdadi has not led to a mass appeal for clemency. In fact, recent reports suggest that the camps have become radicalization zones, preying on the young and vulnerable, who are especially susceptible given that such an environment is all they have ever known.
It cannot be stressed enough that America’s involvement is needed now more than ever
Turkey’s recent incursion into Kurdish-controlled Syria and attacks on Kurdish-held positions have already led to escapes at detention facilities in Qamishli and Ain Issa following Turkish airstrikes and bombardments. It has also become challenging to gauge the factual from the exaggerated in the stream of reports emerging from the area. This cripples the counterinsurgency coalition’s information-gathering and dissemination functions, which are critical to keeping all members fully informed with relevant, verifiable information. Failure to do so merely guarantees the coalition’s inability to act when Daesh detainees escape and rejoin with remnants or attempt to re-establish Daesh in the chasm between Kurdish forces now allied with Damascus on one side, and the Turkish forces on the other.
Elsewhere, Daesh sleeper cells, supporters and sympathizers have also gone underground, retaining their capability to cause havoc in areas they are less likely to get tracked or monitored by already over-stretched intelligence and law enforcement agencies. These splinter groups are also critical to the extremist group’s online capabilities, which help spread propaganda and radicalizing content and recruit the disaffected. The aim of recruitment this time is not to join a rebuilt Daesh per se, but to enlist lone wolves to carry out attacks on their homeland in the group’s name. For instance, Daesh radicalization operations have become sophisticated enough to target white supremacists in the US, urging them to exploit loopholes in gun laws in order to inspire more mass shootings.
These developments become even more alarming when accounting for activities on the unmonitored dark web, where unregulated cryptocurrency remains a medium for exchange for trafficking in contraband, stolen goods and information, or as payment for services rendered.
The task before any anti-extremism coalition should go beyond using force to exorcise dangerous ideology. It should also deal with a tendency to dismiss extremist propaganda as merely the work of internet trolls who craft morbid jokes, make crude memes and delight in making a mockery of suffering. The repeated instances of such media and commentaries resonate with many disaffected people who subscribe to a Daesh worldview. To them, the persistence of content glorifying extremism and the spurious justifications that anoint groups like Daesh as the sole fixers of a broken world (or systems) is proof of Daesh's resilience and imminent re-emergence. Worse yet, these online activities lend a sort of “staying power” — a credibility and legitimacy that is assured by the world's inability to eradicate it or its remnants.
Going forward, the world is now faced with a Herculean task. Tens of thousands of Daesh detainees languish in camps, which have become a bargaining chip for larger forces vying for control in the region or merely prioritizing their self-interests. Turkey has begun forcefully repatriating former Daesh fighters back to Europe, while Syrian-Kurdish forces have rejected US offers to take custody of Daesh’s more dangerous members. In the eyes of its allies, America has once again regressed to the familiar pursuit of self-interest over participating in global efforts to pursue the greater good. Any attempt to address future threats from extremist groups or even a re-emerged Daesh will come with a steep price, demanding a deeper commitment by Washington that may not be palatable to a glaringly partisan Congress.
For the Middle East, it will remain challenging to trace out what the future will look like before the dust of Turkey’s Syria incursion settles or Libya’s proxy war ends. If Turkey's aim was to have a buffer between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), merely occupying a narrow stretch of land between the Turkish border and SDF-held territory in Syria is hardly going to suffice. The ensuing aggression has also generated more antipathy against Ankara than it solved the issue of an emboldened PKK allegedly supported by the SDF. Now, the latter has sought to align itself with Russia and the Assad regime, leaving the US supporting a loose coalition of rebel groups that will not survive a joint SDF-Damascus-Moscow offensive on Idlib — the opposition's last major bastion.
Iraq’s own domestic issues are already straining newly established security forces that are still undergoing training, further delaying outcomes from stabilization programs and the rooting out of remaining Daesh cells. In addition, should Baghdad move toward prioritizing US aims, it may face stiff opposition from the Iraqi parties, groups and interests that are aligned with Tehran, threatening further instability.
In Libya, the war on Tripoli launched by Khalifa Haftar has also created a suitable environment for Daesh to re-emerge after it was defeated by the internationally recognized government in Tripoli, with support from the US Air Force. Sleeper Daesh cells now carry out attacks and infiltrate new parts of the country, taking advantage of the chaos created by the civil war and the foreign presence in its midst.
On the world stage, the anti-Daesh coalition may have scored some major victories, but it revealed a major flaw in the preparations to counter the Daesh threat in the Middle East. There was very little post-Daesh planning, especially in regards to dealing with the detainees, and vulnerable children in particular. Revoking citizenships depended heavily on sustained stability in former Daesh territories, as it merely involved waiting for the return of the rule of law and capable judiciaries to adjudicate over the detained and mete out appropriate sentences for terrorism-related charges.
However, it all fell apart with the US’ disinterest, which has thrown the region back into chaos and thus necessitated new arrangements. These have already been overshadowed by Ankara’s intent to forcefully repatriate former Daesh fighters. It does not excuse the poor decision to merely wait out the Syrian civil war and Iraq’s slow transition to stability, or supporting a peaceful solution in Libya — countries should have been better prepared to furnish plans (and their alternatives) to deal with former Daesh fighters who were once citizens. Canceling citizenships and rejecting their repatriation only kicked the can down a dangerous, unpredictable road, with ramifications we are only just beginning to see.
The attraction of Daesh and other radical groups will remain as long as chaos, war, oppression and civil wars continue in the region. The only way to ensure a total defeat of this radical agenda and its ability to appeal to large numbers of the young in the region and globally is to offer an alternative to religious sentiments among populations, especially the young, and satisfy their deep desire to be part of public life by supporting moderate groups that accept the principles of civil states, law and order, elections, and the democratic mechanism. All parties of moderation that reject violence should be given a way to absorb the political aspiration of the young to participate in public life through peaceful means, rather than being excluded and their members being pushed further into the arms of radical groups.
• Hafed Al-Ghwell is a non-resident senior fellow with the Foreign Policy Institute at the John Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. He is also senior adviser at the international economic consultancy Maxwell Stamp and at the geopolitical risk advisory firm Oxford Analytica, a member of the Strategic Advisory Solutions International Group in Washington and a former adviser to the board of the World Bank Group. Twitter: @HafedAlGhwell.

2020s global leadership: The future is young and female
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/December 29/2019
Our transition into a new decade is an apt moment for soul searching — looking at my grandchildren and wondering where the world is going. In every direction there is turmoil and crises of leadership. Is this a symptom of oncoming catastrophe, or the birth pains of a very different kind of world order?
Everywhere there are strong and assertive women challenging the status quo, notably in protests in Latin America, Hong Kong, Algeria, Sudan, Iran and Iraq. Closest to my heart, I am immensely proud to see Lebanese women frequently outshining men; sophisticatedly articulating their demands, and posing a fundamental challenge to a corrupt, sectarian, and yes, patriarchal system.
We Lebanese who lived through the civil war accepted the revised sectarian quota system of governance because it seemed to be the least-worst solution to stop us from killing each other. It puts us to shame that our young people see this corrupt, backward, broken system for what it is. They desire a mature system of governance that doesn’t straitjacket us according to what sect we were born into.
In Saudi Arabia, the rate of change is mind-spinning. Women drive everywhere. I recently found myself with three female leadership figures from the Saudi financial sector — including Lubna Al-Olayan, who chairs the newly merged SABB and Awwal banks, now the third-largest bank in the Kingdom. Over 60 percent of science graduates are women, and the numbers of female lawyers, academics, journalists and health professionals are rapidly increasing. These changes can never be rolled back, but rather will be consolidated as girls grow up confidently expecting to play leading roles.
As refugee-hating, climate-denying, populist regimes pop up everywhere, young women are inevitably on the frontlines, challenging this ugly reality. Recent US polls suggest about 60 percent of women support Donald Trump being impeached and removed from office; most men disagree. Among young, college-educated, suburban women, support for Trump disappears almost completely.
Disproportionate numbers of votes for authoritarian leaders and retrogressive policies come from the oldest generations. In the UK’s 2016 Brexit referendum, 75 percent of those under 24 voted to remain in the EU. Europe and America have not lurched toward ultra-nationalist, populist autocrats because young people are embracing fascism, but conversely because an overwhelmingly progressive younger generation is consistently outnumbered at the polling booths by their reactionary and embittered elders.
Nevertheless, in states such as France, Germany and the Netherlands, extreme-right (and also far-left) parties have made ominous inroads with younger demographics, particularly among working-class and poorly educated communities. Academic research shows close correlations between high unemployment and anti-immigrant sentiments.
When leaders such as Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, Viktor Orban in Hungary, Trump in the US and Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines make crass and uninformed comments about climate change, it is a salutary reminder that we cannot passively expect our rulers to do the right thing. Climate deniers who patronizingly carp that Greta Thunberg is a child, not a scientist, deliberately miss the point. Greta is no more knowledgeable than any of us; she simply followed her conscience and inspired millions of others to demand that we stop choking and burning our planet. It is humbling, but also hope-inspiring, to see our grandchildren, wise beyond their years and far more clear-sighted than our own cynical, self-absorbed generation.
Lebanon, Iraq, Hong Kong and South America are in turmoil because increasingly well educated and broadminded young people fundamentally reject the corrupt, discredited status quo, and are determined to contribute to building something better.
The civilized and democratic city-states of ancient Greece devolved into an irrelevant backwater, while the energetic and militaristic Roman Empire expanded throughout the Mediterranean world. Western global influence has likewise long been ebbing away, and the rise of Trump simply accelerates this tendency. We apparently can no longer expect Western leaders to honor their moral and legal commitments, stand by their allies, or even make truthful, coherent public statements.
China looks set to eclipse the West as the dominant 21st-century power, if its own increasingly authoritarian governing model doesn’t implode. Discreet Chinese influence is visible everywhere throughout Central Asia and Africa. Sometimes Chinese assistance has proved an invaluable motor for infrastructural and economic development; on other occasions, unsustainably indebted governments have been compelled to give away trade and mineral concessions, or surrender control of their ports.
Vladimir Putin is far noisier in his efforts to subvert the old Eurocentric order, with Russia muscling its way to becoming a major Middle Eastern powerbroker in just a few years. But with a dysfunctional economy smaller than that of Italy, Moscow may prove to be merely the opening act for an era of Asian global leadership.
For those of us who report global events, it often feels that everything is going to hell; everywhere civil unrest, regionalized conflict, populist demagogues, intolerance and extremism. Yet a deeper look into this turmoil can elucidate the opposite conclusion: These reactionary, patriarchal and nativist tendencies are the final gasp of a drowning old order. In the heavily gerrymandered US electoral system, Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 by nearly three million votes. Irrespective of whether he retains the presidency next year, he is likely to lose the popular vote by an even greater margin.
Demagogues such as Putin, Ali Khamenei in Iran and Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey thrive when terrorized, impoverished and disaffected citizens lose all hope, suffering their most humiliating electoral defeats in cosmopolitan, youth-dominated cities such as Moscow, Tehran and Istanbul. Just like Muammar Qaddafi in Libya, Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen, these autocrats subsist on the wrong side of history, waiting for the gravitational pull of popular rejection to eventually bring them crashing down to earth.
Along with cracking down on the media and judiciary, autocrats invariably target their education systems, because enlightened and informed young people will never voluntarily lend their support to retrogressive, dishonest and corrupt leaders. Iran and Venezuela have among the highest rates of brain drain in the world, but when educated young people choose to stay and invest their energies at home, change is never far behind.
The coming decade will be one of tumultuous convulsions; as displaced elites struggle to grapple with their diminished status, while emerging powers develop the sense of responsibility that can make their expanded influence sustainable and beneficial. This is not a zero-sum game; all nations benefit from stability, open borders, multilateral cooperation, fair and enforceable rules, and a shared ethos for good governance — even if some nations must learn to live with smaller slices of the cake. Nevertheless, global inequality is rapidly increasing. During 2019 the world’s richest 500 people increased their collective wealth by an astonishing 25 percent, up to $5.9 trillion dollars, in an economic climate where overall growth is stalling.
I remain optimistic, however, because I believe that a world in which more women occupy leadership roles will be more humane and considerate, more mindful of our duty to bequeath the world to future generations in better shape than we found it. Finland’s new prime minister, 34-year-old Sanna Marin; European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde; US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi; and the European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, are a few of the many powerful examples I could cite.
Lebanon, Iraq, Hong Kong and South America are in turmoil because increasingly well educated and broadminded young people fundamentally reject the corrupt, discredited status quo, and are determined to contribute to building something better. They will not always immediately succeed, but that doesn’t mean they were wrong to try, and it doesn’t mean they won’t learn from mistakes and ultimately live to see their dreams become reality.
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

Turkey’s canal obsession could upset regional stability
Yasar Yakis/Arab News/December 29/2019
The Turkish government seems set to dig a canal in Istanbul to link the Black Sea to the Marmara Sea. It will constitute a second link between the two seas in addition to an existing natural waterway, the Istanbul Strait (Bosporus), 30-40 km to the east. The government claims that the main purpose of the project is to alleviate heavy traffic in the Bosporus.
The opponents of the project claim that it is more a pretext to create rent for real estate developers and to further enrich pro-government contractors. They also want to know who purchased real estate in areas along the canal’s route.
The initial estimates say that the construction may cost US$15–20 billion. It also has geological, environmental and social implications, but this article will focus on the international law aspect of the question.
The Black Sea is the only sea whose status is regulated by an international agreement, the Montreux Convention. This convention regulates the passage through the Turkish Straits, that is to say the Dardanelles, Marmara Sea and Bosporus.
As a general rule, merchant vessels are free to use the Turkish Straits, but there are certain restrictions in case of war. These rules vary according to whether Turkey is belligerent or not. If Turkey is a belligerent party, the restrictions apply to merchant vessels according to whether or not they are vessels of countries with which Turkey is at war. If they are registered in countries that are not at war with Turkey, they are allowed to go through the Turkish Straits on condition that they do not in any way assist Turkey’s enemies.
This rule also applies in the event that Turkey considers itself to be threatened with imminent danger of war.
The tightest restrictions concern the tonnage of warships. The maximum aggregate tonnage of all foreign naval forces passing through the Straits shall not exceed 15,000 tons. These forces shall not comprise more than nine ships at the same time.
The aggregate tonnage that non-Black Sea countries may have in those waters cannot exceed 30,000.
If the Montreux Convention comes to an end one way or another, Turkey may not obtain a similar leverage for the protection of the region’s stability, especially in the area covered by the Turkish Straits.
There are other restrictions as well: The warships of non-Black Sea countries are not allowed to stay in that Sea more than 21 days, whatever the reason for their presence there. Submarines must pass through the Turkish Straits in daytime and on the surface of water.
These details give an idea of the central role entrusted to Turkey in the implementation of the convention. This was thanks to the conditions that prevailed in the mid-1930s when the convention was signed. Italy had invaded Abyssinia (Ethiopia) and the predecessor of the United Nations — the League of Nations — could not do anything to prevent it. Nazi Germany had already started to threaten Czechoslovakia. In this precarious environment, Turkey was able to persuade the international community that the best way to maintain stability in the Black Sea region was to regulate the entry of non-coastal countries’ warships.
This was approved and the Montreux Convention largely contributed to the stability of the region for more than 80 years.
If the Montreux Convention comes to an end one way or another, Turkey may not obtain a similar leverage for the protection of the region’s stability, especially in the area covered by the Turkish Straits. In the aftermath of World War I, between 1923 and 1936 this competence was assumed by an agency called the International Straits Commission under the auspices of the League of Nations.
Turkey was able to take over this responsibility from the commission thanks to the circumstances that prevailed in mid-1930s. Such a constellation in the international arena is not likely to happen again.
What does the Montreux Convention have to do with digging a canal in Istanbul?
If a canal is dug, non-coastal countries wishing to maintain a military presence in the Black Sea may approach Turkey and ask to use the canal — rather than the Bosporus — to send their warships to the Black Sea. They may claim that Montreux Convention does not cover the new canal, therefore the restrictions imposed by the convention do not apply.
Russia will probably oppose any relaxation of the measures that restrict the entry to the Black Sea of a large number of warships of non-coastal countries, such as the US navy. Of course, Turkey is not obliged to allow the warships of the non-coastal countries into the Black Sea, but it may find itself squeezed between the applicant countries and Russia. Therefore, if the Montreux regime collapses, it is difficult to predict what type of environment may arise, especially now that Turkey is largely isolated in the international arena.
*Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkey and a founding member of the ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar