LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 22/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
The parable of the sower: But as for what was sown on good soil, this is the one who hears the word and understands it, who indeed bears fruit and yields, in one case a hundredfold, in another sixty, and in another thirty.’”.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 13/18-23/:”‘Hear then the parable of the sower. When anyone hears the word of the kingdom and does not understand it, the evil one comes and snatches away what is sown in the heart; this is what was sown on the path. As for what was sown on rocky ground, this is the one who hears the word and immediately receives it with joy; yet such a person has no root, but endures only for a while, and when trouble or persecution arises on account of the word, that person immediately falls away. As for what was sown among thorns, this is the one who hears the word, but the cares of the world and the lure of wealth choke the word, and it yields nothing. But as for what was sown on good soil, this is the one who hears the word and understands it, who indeed bears fruit and yields, in one case a hundredfold, in another sixty, and in another thirty.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 21-22/2019
Paris Urges 'Competent' Lebanese Govt. to Implement Reforms
Diab Vows No Time Waste, Intensification of Consultations
Lebanon’s new PM-designate confident his government will get Western support
Diab Begins Non-Binding Consultations to Form Government
Lebanon PM-designate begins tough talks to form government/The country has not had a government since October
Lebanon’s new PM-designate begins consultations over next Cabinet
Berri Says Delay in Govt. Formation Accelerates ‘Economic Bankruptcy’
Diab at the end of consultations: We will form a mini government of independent experts as soon as possible; Dar AlFatwa's visit will be after the government formation
Bassil after meeting Diab: We need clean and honest ministers
Hariri's Press Office: Rebuttal of Al-Liwaa
Makhzoumi: It is not possible to facilitate the affairs of the Lebanese without a government
Salam says every person keen on preserving his homeland will not place obstacles
Mountain Guarantee Bloc expresses readiness to aid the PM-designate to succeed in his mission and meet the demands of the Lebanese people
Armenian Bloc: We will participate in the government according to its form
Demerjian: We count on the wisdom of the PMdesignate to bring in specialists who respect the law
Adwan after meeting with Diab: We do not have any demands as a Party; we are interested in a government of specialists
Ferzli after meeting Diab: We called for a reform government
Kataeb Bloc says the only solution today lies in early parliamentary elections
Development and Liberation Bloc after meeting Diab: For a rescue emergency government
Raad says government will not be confrontational
Jisr says Future Bloc will not participate in government
Berri insists on including all parties in cabinet after meeting with Diab
Geagea wishes 'success' to new government
Al-Rahi: We pray for the success of the PM-designate's mission
Bassil Meets Hale at His Residence
S&P Rates Lebanon at CCC/C with Negative Outlook
Scuffles continue in Lebanon between Hariri supporters and security forces
Clashes Renew between Army, Mustaqbal Supporters in Corniche al-Mazraa

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 21-22/2019
Egyptian tanks sent to Libya to thwart Turkish intervention in battle for Tripoli
New Iranian drone base destroyed near Abu Kamal. First Saudi unit lands at Syrian oil field
Tens of Thousands of Civilians Flee Renewed Syria Violence
Syria Says Possible Drone Attacks Hit 3 Oil, Gas Facilities
Russia, China have blood on their hands after veto on Syria aid: Pompeo
Iran’s Rouhani welcomes Japan opt-out of US-led naval mission in Gulf
Airstrikes on rebel-held northwestern Syrian town kill 7
Thousands flee bombardment in northwest Syria, head to Turkish border
US removes Sudan from religious freedom blacklist

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 21-22/2019
The International Republican Institute understands the issues in Lebanon well/John Hajjar/Face Book/December 21/2019
Samir Geagea despite everything remains for me the most credible current political leader/Roger Bejjani//December 21/2019
New Lebanon PM meets with parliamentarians on road ahead/Associated Press/December 21/2019
Hezbollah-backed PM-designate faces backlash from Sunnis/Samar Kadi/The Arab Weekly/December 22/2019
Naming of prime minister-designate adds to Lebanon unrest/Simon Speakman Cordall/The Arab Weekly/December 22/2019
Beirut Christmas carolling comes with a revolutionary twist/Samar Kadi/The Arab Weekly/December 22/2019
*Egyptian tanks sent to Libya to thwart Turkish intervention in battle for Tripoli/DEBKAfile/21 December/2019
New Iranian drone base destroyed near Abu Kamal. First Saudi unit lands at Syrian oil field/DEBKAfile/December 21/2019
Unanswered Iranian provocations in Iraq undermine US influence/Tallha Abdulrazaq/The Arab Weekly/December 22/2019
Changing the relationship with Morocco should be part of Tebboune’s quest for ‘New Algeria/Mohamad Kawas/The Arab Weekly/December 22/2019
The Turkish decade that will live in infamy/Stephen Starr/The Arab Weekly/December 22/2019
Migrants will always be with us — and so they should/Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/December 22/2019
The curious diplomacy of US sanctions on allies/Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/December 22/2019
US troop reduction in Afghanistan will have great significance/Rustam Shah Mohmand /Arab News/December 22/2019
Turkey Pivots to Tripoli: Implications for Libya’s Civil War and U.S. Policy/Soner Cagaptay and Ben Fishman/The Washington Institute/December 21/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 21-22/2019
Paris Urges 'Competent' Lebanese Govt. to Implement Reforms
Naharnet/December 21/2019
The French foreign ministry on Friday said that it is “up to the Lebanese officials” to form the new government, refusing to comment further on the appointment of Hassan Diab as PM-designate. A spokeswoman for the ministry however said that the formation of the new government should respect “the public interest of all Lebanese.”“The only criterion should be the competence of this government in order to serve the reforms that the people are awaiting,” she added.

Diab Vows No Time Waste, Intensification of Consultations
Naharnet/December 21/2019
Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab on Friday warned that the situation in Lebanon “does not allow for any waste of time,” vowing to “intensify consultations to reach the result that the Lebanese are hoping for.”“The responsibility for Lebanon’s rise is huge and everyone is aware of the economic and financial challenge that the country is going though. Let us begin a new journey that resembles the will of the people,” Diab tweeted. “Your demands are rightful and they represent a groundwork for building a new state,” Diab added, addressing citizens and protesters. Diab’s non-binding consultations with the parliamentary blocs on the shape and line-up of the new government are scheduled for Saturday. Earlier on Friday, Diab said that he plans to form a government of experts and independents to deal with the country's crippling economic crisis. Diab spoke to reporters following a meeting with caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri, a day after he was asked by the president to form the country's next government. Diab, a university professor and former education minister, won a majority of lawmakers' votes after receiving backing from the powerful Hizbullah and its allies. However, he lacks the support of major Sunni figures, including the largest Sunni party headed by Hariri. That is particularly problematic for Diab, who as a Sunni, lacks support from his own community. Diab, however, emerged from Friday's meeting with Hariri saying the atmosphere was "positive." "As an expert and an independent, my inclination is to form a government that is truly made up of experts and independents" Diab said. Shortly after he spoke, scuffles broke out between Hariri's supporters protesting on a Beirut street and army units, underlying the tension on the ground. "I ask them (protesters) to give us a chance to form an exceptional government" that can work on resolving the country's many problems, accumulated over the past 30 years, Diab said. Diab faces a huge challenges in trying to form a consensual government that would also satisfy protesters who have been on the streets since mid-October, seeking to sweep away an entire political class they deem as corrupt. He also faces a mammoth task of dealing with the country's economic and financial crisis in one of the most indebted countries of the world. Support from the Iran-backed Hizbullah guarantees Diab a thorny path, potentially inviting criticism from Western and Gulf nations that had supported Hariri. Friendly nations, including France, have made clear they will not support the heavily indebted nation before a reform-minded Cabinet is formed.

Lebanon’s new PM-designate confident his government will get Western support
Al Arabiya English/Saturday, 21 December 2019
Lebanon’s new Hezbollah-backed Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab said in an interview with Al Hadath that his appointment was constitutional and that he would not have trouble receiving Western support if the government is from independent “specialists.” Diab also added that he will be meeting with all parties and denominations, including the Sunnis. Diab’s nomination was rejected by the Sunnis after he failed to receive the support of former prime minister Saad Hariri and his party. Under the Lebanese sectarian political system the seat of the prime minister is left to a Sunni Muslim. Diab, an academic and former education minister, was designated on Thursday as the country’s next prime minister with the support of the heavily armed Shiite Muslim Lebanese Hezbollah and its allies. The US, UK, and Arab League have designated Hezbollah a terrorist organization. Analysts say Diab faced obstacles due to his reliance on Hezbollah’s support and a lack of real support from his Sunni sect or the protest movement. “Diab is already presented as a pro-Hezbollah PM which kills any possibility to get the international financial aid which is the only chance to get out of the crisis,” said Sami Nader, head of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs. Lebanon, in its worst economic crisis since the 1975-90 civil war, has been seeking a new government since Prime Minister Hariri resigned on October 29 in response to protests against the ruling elite.
With Agencies

Diab Begins Non-Binding Consultations to Form Government
Naharnet/December 21/2019
Lebanon's premier-designate Hassan Diab begins Saturday non-binding consultations with heads of parliamentary blocs in order to form Lebanon’s much-delayed government amid wide protests rejecting his designation. Diab, a university professor and former education minister, will have to steer Lebanon out of its worst economic and financial crisis in decades. He's also taking office against the backdrop of ongoing nationwide protests against the country's ruling elite. Diab began his meetings Saturday at parliament with Speaker Nabih Berri, then held talks with former prime ministers, including caretaker premier Hariri. Berri did not make any statement to reporters after the meeting. Later a statement was released by Berri's media office, he said the “new government is an opportunity for reunion” and should “represent all political parties starting with the protest movement, al-Mustaqbal Movement (of resigned PM Saad Hariri), the Lebanese Forces and the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP).”The PSP's Democratic Gathering bloc of ex-MP Walid Jumblat officially announced non-participation in the consultations and the new government.
After holding talks with Diab, Hariri did not comment on the government formation, but urged his supporters to “express their opinion peacefully without assaulting the Lebanese army and security forces," after Friday's clashes between the two in Corniche al-Mazraa. “When PM Rafik Hariri was assassinated, we did not hurl stones at anyone. You can express your opinion peacefully and the Lebanese army is our army.”After meeting Diab, Hariri and Berri held talks on the sidelines of the consultations. Former PM Tammam Salam said after meeting the PM-designate: “We are in the midst of an uncomfortable situation in the country, especially that a large group does not agree with what is happening. What we witnessed yesterday in the streets is not permissible.” On Friday, scuffles broke out in Beirut and other areas between supporters of Hariri, and Lebanese troops and riot policemen. The ex-premier's supporters were protesting Diab's nomination. The scuffles left at least seven soldiers injured. “We look forward to forming an effective government of experts,” said Deputy Speaker Elie Ferzli, adding “we called for a small government, implementation of reforms and fighting corruption.” Al-Mustaqbal Movement bloc told Diab that it will not take part in the new government, and urged the PM-designate for a “swift government formation.”Development and Liberation bloc met Diab and called for an “emergency cabinet representing all parties and the popular movement ​in order to rescue the country from the current crisis.”
Hizbullah’s Loyalty to the Resistance bloc voiced calls for “serious dialogue in order to rescue the country,” said MP Mohammed Raad. “No one wants a government of confrontations. Rather, it must present the correct approach to energize the financial and economic situation.”
The Kataeb bloc said: "Staging early parliamentary elections is the only solution for the crisis paving way for the people to choose their representatives." Lebanese banks have imposed unprecedented capital controls over the past weeks. Thousands have lost their jobs, while the economy is expected to contract in 2020. The new prime minister won a majority of lawmakers' votes after receiving backing from Hizbullah and its allies, which have a majority of seats in parliament. However, he lacks the support of major Sunni figures, including the largest Sunni party headed by Hariri. That's particularly problematic for Diab, who, as a Sunni, doesn't have the backing of his own community. And under Lebanon's sectarian power-sharing agreement, the prime minister must be Sunni. Hizbullah had backed Hariri for prime minister from the start, but the group differed with him over the shape of the new government.
Lebanon's sustained, leaderless protests erupted in mid-October, and forced Hariri's resignation within days. But politicians were later unable to agree on a new prime minister. The ongoing protests and paralysis have worsened the economic crisis.

Lebanon PM-designate begins tough talks to form government/The country has not had a government since October
Agence France Presse/December 22/2019
Lebanon's prime minister-designate on Saturday launched consultations to form a desperately-needed government for a protest-hit country facing economic collapse, saying political leaders are warming up to a line-up of independent experts. Debt-burdened Lebanon has been without a fully functioning government since former prime minister Saad Hariri resigned on October 29 in the face of nationwide protests. Demonstrators are demanding an overhaul of the political establishment which they deem corrupt and inept, insisting on a government of independents and experts with no ties to the country's sectarian parties.
But Shiite groups Amal and Hezbollah have been demanding a government that includes representatives of established parties. "Lebanon is in intensive care," prime minister-designate Hassan Diab told reporters after meeting several political leaders on Saturday.
"All (political) sides are in line with my (proposal) for a government of independents and experts, including Hezbollah," he said.
Mr Diab, a 60-year-old engineering professor and self-styled technocrat, said he is hoping to set up a 20-member government within four to six weeks. He said he would start talks with representatives of the popular movement on Sunday to form such a government. But the challenges he must overcome became clear however from the onset of Saturday's talks with various officials and lawmakers. Parliament speaker Nabih Berri said he "insists on securing representation for all parliamentary groups," in the next government -- a position shared by his Shiite Amal party. Hezbollah MP Mohammad Raad after meeting Mr Diab said "wider representation" would help accelerate the formation of a government.
Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, who heads the Hezbollah-allied Free Patriotic Movement, said he would prefer a government that did not include high-profile political figures, but said that parliamentary blocs should be represented in some form. Mr Diab was designate prime minister on Thursday with backing from the Iran-backed Hezbollah, Amal and Bassil's FPM. But Mr Hariri's Sunni bloc did not endorse his nomination, along with other key Christian and Druze Muslim parties and all have said they will not take part in Diab's government. Samir al-Jisr, an MP from Hariri's Future Movement, said the government Diab would set up would be "supported by only one political stripe".
On the ground, Sunni supporters of Hariri have blocked roads with burning tyres and scuffled with security forces in Beirut and other cities for the past two consecutive nights to voice their opposition for Diab. Hezbollah sought to appease the anger of the protesters on Saturday, insisting that the next government will not be lopsided. "No one should think the government will be one of confrontation or one endorsed by only one political stripe," said Raad. The new government, he said, will seek to "revitalise" the economy that has taken a beating since the unprecedented protests began on October 17.
Since then, tensions have been heightened by the looming bankruptcy of the debt-burdened Lebanese state.
A dollar-liquidity crisis has pushed banks to impose informal capital controls on dollar deposits and the Lebanese pound, officially pegged to the US dollar, has lost around 30 percent of its value on the black market. The faltering economy has pushed several companies to close, while surviving businesses try to stay open by paying half-salaries and laying off employees. A recession of more than 0.2 percent is expected for this year, the World Bank says. The international community, donors, and financial organisations have warned that debt-saddled Lebanon could ill afford any delay in getting a new government. The United States, France and other allies of Lebanon have warned they would withhold financial support until a government that can demonstrate willingness to reform can be formed. Multi-confessional Lebanon is ruled by a complex political system that seeks to maintain a fragile equilibrium between political parties representing the country's major confessional sects. It usually takes months to form a government as political groups haggle over the allocation of cabinet seats and the distribution of ministerial portfolios.

Lebanon’s new PM-designate begins consultations over next Cabinet
The Associated Press, Beirut/Saturday, 21 December 2019
Lebanon’s newly designated prime minister began his consultations on Saturday with parliamentary blocs to discuss the shape of the future government. Hassan Diab, a university professor and former education minister, will have to steer Lebanon out of its worst economic and financial crisis in decades. He’s also taking office against the backdrop of ongoing nationwide protests against the country’s ruling elite. The consultations began a day after scuffles broke out in Beirut and other areas between supporters of the outgoing prime minister, Saad Hariri, and Lebanese troops and riot policemen. The ex-premier’s supporters were protesting Diab’s nomination. The scuffles left at least seven soldiers injured. Diab began his meetings Saturday at parliament with Speaker Nabih Berri, then held talks with former prime ministers, including caretaker premier Hariri. The two men had also met the previous day, when Diab said he plans to form a government of experts and independents to deal with the country’s crippling economic crisis. Lebanese banks have imposed unprecedented capital controls over the past weeks. Thousands have lost their jobs, while the economy is expected to contract in 2020. Hariri cautioned his supports Saturday against violent protests, saying: “The army is ours and police forces are for all Lebanese.” A lawmaker from the bloc led by the Shia Amal group - headed by parliament speaker Berri - said the incoming government should focus on fighting corruption. “It should be an emergency government that works on solving the economic, financial, social and banking crisis,” said Anwar al-Khalil after the meeting with Diab. The new prime minister won a majority of lawmakers’ votes after receiving backing from Hezbollah group and its allies, which have a majority of seats in parliament.
However, he lacks the support of major Sunni figures, including the largest Sunni party headed by Hariri. That’s particularly problematic for Diab, who, as a Sunni, doesn’t have the backing of his own community. And under Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing agreement, the prime minister must be Sunni. Hezbollah had backed Hariri for prime minister from the start, but the group differed with him over the shape of the new government. Lebanon’s sustained, leaderless protests erupted in mid-October, and forced Hariri’s resignation within days. But politicians were later unable to agree on a new prime minister. The ongoing protests and paralysis have worsened the economic crisis.

Berri Says Delay in Govt. Formation Accelerates ‘Economic Bankruptcy’
Naharnet/December 21/2019
Speaker Nabih Berri said on Saturday that protest-hit Lebanon faces the risk of “economic and financial bankruptcy” if the formation of a new government is not accelerated amid an unprecedented economic crisis gripping the country, al-Joumhouria daily reported. “After the designation (of PM Hassan Diab) the main efforts must focus on forming a rescue government to salvage the stifling economic and financial crisis,” said Berri in remarks to the daily. He warned that Lebanon faces a major risk if the formation is delayed further. “We are inevitably heading to economic and financial bankruptcy if we do not accelerate the formation of a government that rushes to take the necessary measures and reforms," he said. Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned on October 29, two week into nationwide protests demanding an overhaul of Lebanon’s entire political class. Diab’s designation on Thursday was met with dismay. Protesters who say he has the support of Hizbullah rallied and blockaded roads with burning car tyres to protest his nomination. Over the past two months, the Lebanese pound, officially pegged to the US dollar, has lost around 30 percent on the black market, while many companies have slashed wages and laid off staff. Diab himself suggested a timeframe of four to six weeks after consultations were due to begin on Saturday.

Diab at the end of consultations: We will form a mini government of independent experts as soon as possible; Dar AlFatwa's visit will be after the government formation
NNA/December 21/2019
Prime Minister-designate in charge of forming the new government, Hassan Diab, announced at the end of the non-binding parliamentary consultations today, that he would work to "form a mini government comprised of independent specialists.""The prime minister is the one who forms the government, and I will not apologize," he said. "Hassan Diab is a Lebanese citizen who loves his country and wants nothing for himself, but wishes to play a role in this difficult stage with the participation of all parties who have expressed their willingness to cooperate," vowed the PM-designate. "The time for action has come, and in this delicate and sensitive stage we need every effort possible," he emphasized, adding that "in light of the useful advice I have heard from the blocs and parliament members, we will work to form a government as soon as possible."Responding to a question, Diab said: "I agree with all that is voiced by the popular movement in terms of forming a government of independent specialists and clean figures, who would seriously work on urgent files, especially the economic dossiers."On his visit to Dar Al-Fatwa, the PM-designate announced that it would be in "due time", and then specified that it would be "following the government formation."

Bassil after meeting Diab: We need clean and honest ministers
NNA/December 21/2019
Caretaker Foreign Affairs and Expatriates Minister Gebran Bassil stressed Saturday on the need for "clean and honest" ministers, known for their good merit and competence, to be part of the next government.
Speaking on behalf of the "Strong Lebanon" Parliamentary Bloc after meeting with Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab, Bassil said: "We did not make any demands to the PM-designate...What we are asking for is the availability of elements of success and effectiveness for the new government."“This is the government of all Lebanese, not against anyone,” Bassil reassured, adding, “The issue of our participation is not important, the important thing is for this government to succeed and that we all contribute to its success.”

Hariri's Press Office: Rebuttal of Al-Liwaa
NNA/December 21/2019
The Press Office of Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri, has issued the following: "Al-Liwaa" newspaper issued today a report alleging "a complete settlement between caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri and the Shiite duo that ended with the designation of Dr. Hassan Diab and the non-designation by the Future bloc of Ambassador Nawaf Salam" and other things attributed to the alleged settlement. The Press Office confirms that everything stated in the report is incorrect and consists of analyses and predictions, and that the only thing that has been agreed upon between Prime Minister Hariri and the Shiite duo is to work by all means to prevent sedition and protect civil peace."

Makhzoumi: It is not possible to facilitate the affairs of the Lebanese without a government
NNA/December 21/2019
After meeting with Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab this evening, MP Fouad Makhzoumi stressed that "the goal is to facilitate the affairs of the Lebanese, and of course we know that this cannot be feasible without a government.""Our objection was due to the fact that we did not hear of a clear and frank program and rescue project prior to the parliamentary consultations, and therefore, we did not name a prime minister," Makhzoumi said. "We are awaiting the proposed program," he added. Makhzoumi hoped that the new Prime Minister would succeed in addressing all the issues at stake, most prominently in combatting corruption and implementing a rescue plan.

Salam says every person keen on preserving his homeland will not place obstacles
NNA/December 21/2019
Former Prime Minister Tamam Salam stressed Saturday that every Lebanese keen on preserving his homeland will not place any obstacles. "We voice our position and our opinion, taking into account the most important factor, which is the street. We hope that the street's expression of its dissatisfaction or anger will not disturb the civil peace in the country nor target the army and security forces," Salam underscored. His words came following his meeting today with Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab, within the framework of the non-binding consultations prior to forming the new government. Salam indicated that the binding consultations will take place, stating that he has no personal demand other than that of all the Lebanese, which is "to stop the deterioration, malpractice and mismanagement" prevailing in the country. He hoped for a suitable way out through forming a government that can carry the heavy weight, and be at the level of the aspirations of every citizen sincere to his country. "Today, we are in the context of the binding consultations. I would like to say that we are still in the midst of huge challenges and in the midst of an uncomfortable situation in the country, especially since a basic and large team does not agree to what is happening and has clearly expressed that," added Salam. He noted that the peaceful demonstration is correct, while criticizing yesterday's witnessed events which he deemed "harmful"."

Mountain Guarantee Bloc expresses readiness to aid the PM-designate to succeed in his mission and meet the demands of the Lebanese people
NNA/December 21/2019
Members of the "Mountain Guarantee" Parliamentary Bloc, led by MP Talal Arslan, met this afternoon with Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab, whereby they expressed their full readiness to provide any assistance needed to ensure the success of his mission, within the framework that meets the demands of the Lebanese people. "We wished the PM-designate success in forming the government, and we hoped that this circumstance would be one that imposes complete national unity in the country, for the prevailing economic and financial situation is not a circumstantial stalemate condition, and does not entail only group of Lebanese citizens...Hence, everyone is required to strive so we can put a limit to the collapse that has occurred, and which might have huge repercussions on the social, economic and financial levels, shouldered by the entire Lebanese," Arslan said on emerging.
He hoped that the new government would "meet the requirements of the civil movement in the country, which reflect our sufferings as Lebanese in general, namely in combatting corruption and the corrupt and approving the reform paper, which was previously agreed upon," he added.
"The delicate phase that Lebanon has reached requires a rescue policy, par excellence," underlined Arslan.

Armenian Bloc: We will participate in the government according to its form
NNA/December 21/2019
MP Agog Pakradounian announced, following the meeting of the Armenian Deputies Bloc with Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab this afternoon, that they will participate in the next government "according to its form."He added: "The Bloc informed Diab of the need to form a government as soon as possible, and to pave the way for economic and social solutions to break the current impasse."

Demerjian: We count on the wisdom of the PMdesignate to bring in specialists who respect the law
NNA/December 21/2019
Following his meeting with the Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab over the new government formation, Deputy Eddy Demerjian said that hopes are pinned on the wisdom of the PM-designate to bring in specialists who set their sights on the law and respect its proper implementation. "There is no salvation for Lebanon except through implementing and respecting the laws," Demerjian emphasized.
He stressed before the PM-designate that "the social, financial and educational situation cannot bear any waiting period, because the whole economy is threatened."Demerjian hoped that the new PM would accord immediate attention to the issue of justice implementation, so as to put an end to the selective unjust actions taking place in the country. Additionaly, he urged the PM-designate to rapidly intervene with the banking sector to ensure that the principle of free economy, enshrined in the constitution and laws, is not disrupted and that depositors' rights are well-preserved.

Adwan after meeting with Diab: We do not have any demands as a Party; we are interested in a government of specialists
NNA/December 21/2019
Members of the "Strong Republic" Parliamentary Bloc met today with Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab, within the context of the non-binding consultations to form the new government.
Following the meeting, MP George Adwan spoke on behalf of his colleagues, saying: "The Lebanese Forces Party has no demands as a party. Rather, we are interested in a government of specialists who enjoy high morals and transparency and who are independent, meaning that their decision is not party-driven."

Ferzli after meeting Diab: We called for a reform government
NNA/December 21/2019
Deputy House Speaker Elie Ferzli met today with Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab, following which he indicated that talks centered on the next cabinet, saying: "We called for a government that takes into account the demands that have long been echoed, and whose program implements the needed reforms."Ferzli hoped that the new government would be formed the soonest possible away from any shallow obstacles. "I also insisted on deepening dialogue, again and again, with Prime Minister Saad Hariri to take matters in the right direction," Ferzli added. We are looking forward to an effective government of specialists," he emphasized. "We insist that the Prime Minister-designate exerts all required efforts to reach a common logic and a mutual relationship with the parliamentary blocs, for this is the duty of the PM-designate even if they [blocs] do not participate in the parliamentary consultations," Ferzli corroborated.

Kataeb Bloc says the only solution today lies in early parliamentary elections
NNA/December 21/2019
Kataeb Party Chief, MP Sami Gemayel, announced today on behalf of his Bloc members, following their meeting with Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab, that the sole solution at this stage is through holding early parliamentary elections. "We have reiterated our position to the PM-designate, and we consider that there is a total estrangement between the largest part of the Lebanese people who have joined the uprising for the past 60 days, and the political forces who did not wish to hear their voices, which has served to widen the rift between the constitutional institutions and the people," said Gemayel. "It is critical when the state is on one side while the people are on the other side. Unfortunately, there is a team that still imposes its will on the Lebanese people, and still wants, after facing their uprising in the street and trying to abort it on several occasions, to continue to impose its will through constitutional institutions. This is something we reject, and this path is wrong and will lead to more crises," he underlined. Consequently, Gemayel affirmed his Party's "full solidarity with the people's uprising," vowing to "continue together the struggle towards achieving real change."

Development and Liberation Bloc after meeting Diab: For a rescue emergency government
NNA/December 21/2019
Prime Minister-designate, Hassan Diab, met on Saturday with members of the "Development and Liberation" Parliamentary Bloc, within the context of the non-binding consultations for forming the new government. On emerging, the Bloc's Secretary-General, MP Anwar El-Khalil, stressed that "all efforts should be focused on forming a rescue emergency government" to help the country out of its suffocating economic, financial, social and banking crisis. El-Khalil highlighted the need for a cabinet that includes all parties in the country, calling on the PM-designate to also seek the representation of the civil movement which has become a necessity, so the latter would be a partner in the comprehensive rescue operation. "There are basic matters that the PM-designate should be concerned with, such as fighting corruption," he added, noting that "combatting corruption begins with the process of implementing laws."
"We wished the Prime Minister-designate all success in reaching the aspired goals," said El-Khalil, noting that talks during the meeting did not dwell on any portfolio request, but merely focused on the exchange of views and perspectives on various dossiers.

Raad says government will not be confrontational
NNA/December 21/2019
"The more the government includes the participation of political counterparts, the more successful it will be," Loyalty to the Resistance Parliamentary Bloc Head, Mohammad Raad, said after the meeting with Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab today.
He added: "We do not want a confrontational government or a "one-sided government."

Jisr says Future Bloc will not participate in government
NNA/December 21/2019
MP Samir al-Jisr announced on Saturday after the Future Bloc's meeting with Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab, that the Future Bloc will not participate in the new government, whether directly or indirectly.
“We hope that it would be composed of independent specialists,” al-Jisr said. “We consider that forming the cabinet of independent specialists can rebuild confidence between people and the authority, and we believe that this is the desire of all people, not just those who are in the civil movement," he underlined. MP Jisr hoped that the PM-designate would form the new government in less time than he had declared; especially that it would be backed by “one-color” so there is no reason for any delay in its formation, as he explained.

Berri insists on including all parties in cabinet after meeting with Diab
NNA/December 21/2019
"I discussed with the Prime Minister-designate the government's framework, in terms of its nature, size and distribution of portfolios, and I confirmed the program, especially with regard to fighting corruption and working on developing economic and financial issues," House Speaker Nabih Berri said after meeting Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab this morning. ​​​​​Berri stressed the importance of representing all parliamentary blocs in the next government, in addition to the members of the civil movement activists.

Geagea wishes 'success' to new government
NNA/December 21/2019
"We don't want anything from the government, and the Lebanese Forces will not be part of it, yet we hope it will succeed and be productive," LF Party Leader Samir Geagea said Saturday after meeting with US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, David Hale.
He added: "The international community has bad experiences with Lebanon and therefore, will not contribute a single penny if it is not sure that the money will reach the Lebanese people.""We must save the country's social and economic situation," Geagea concluded.

Al-Rahi: We pray for the success of the PM-designate's mission
NNA/December 21/2019
"We pray for the success of the new Prime Minister's mission in forming the new government," said Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Mar Beshara Boutros al-Rahi, as he presided over this evening's prayers in Bkiriki marking the holy season. "We call on politicians to remove obstacles and difficulties that stand in the PM-designate's way, because people are tired and can no longer hear the politicians whose interests have brought the country to the bottom, politically, economically and financially," said the Patriarch.
"Therefore, we pray for the Prime Minister-designate to form the government as soon as possible, and for it to gain confidence, and we appeal to politicians to put the interests of Lebanon and its people above all personal, factional, sectarian, or partisan considerations," al-Rahi underlined. Meanwhile, the Patriarch regretted "the recent events in Beirut," saying that "the right to opinion expression in a peaceful manner is sacred, but it is unacceptable to hit the army and security forces with stones."
"We pray for the army and security forces that are carrying out their huge responsibilities patiently and enduringly, in maintaining security and preserving the squares and the freedom of movement on the roads," said al-Rahi.

Bassil Meets Hale at His Residence
Naharnet/December 21/2019
Caretaker Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil on Saturday held talks with visiting U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, David Hale, at his residence in al-Bayyada. Reports said Bassil invited the U.S. envoy for dinner. Hale had earlier in the day met with Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea in Maarab. On Friday he met with President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri and caretaker PM Saad Hariri. Hale had said that Washington was ready to help -- provided Lebanon forms a new government marked by "good governance and freedom from corruption."

S&P Rates Lebanon at CCC/C with Negative Outlook
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 21/2019
International ratings agency Standard & Poor's confirmed Lebanon's rating at CCC/C with negative outlook for the country's economy, reports said Saturday. The agency stated that “Lebanon may eventually face difficult political options regarding monetary and banking systems in the future.” It pointed out that “the dangers of the prolonged political vacuum increase the ambiguity over the policies,” noting that “the system of power-sharing based on religion in Lebanon can delay any political solution regarding the formation of the government.”“Standard and Poor's,” noted that “potential reforms may not be sufficient to find a fundamental solution to the great financial and economic pressures.”

Scuffles continue in Lebanon between Hariri supporters and security forces
The Associated Press, Beirut/Saturday, 21 December 2019
On Friday night, the Lebanese army used tear gas to disperse hundreds of supporters of the outgoing Prime Minister, Saad Hariri, protesting the assignment of the new Prime Minister, Hassan Diab, who is supported by Hezbollah. The clashes between the army and the demonstrators took place in the Corniche of Mazraa, in the, Beirut. Scuffles on the major avenue in Beirut intensified after Sunnis who apparently support Hariri closed it to protest Diab’s nomination. When the army worked on opening the road in Beirut’s western Mazraa neighborhood, the protesters hurled stones and fire crackers at troops and riot policemen, injuring at least seven soldiers, the Lebanese army said. The scuffles had begun on Friday morning when protesters first closed the avenue in Mazraa where Hariri enjoys wide support. Hours after the avenue was reopened, protesters closed it again leading to the intense scuffles that lasted until shortly before midnight. Outgoing Interior Minister Raya El Hassan, a member of Hariri’s Future Movement, issued a statement urging protesters to leave the streets “to avoid dangers and strife.” The protesters had earlier blocked the main highway linking Beirut with southern Lebanon with burning tires, causing a miles-long traffic jam. The army opened the road briefly in the town of Naameh before protesters closed it again with flaming tires. The road closures in Beirut and Naameh were carried out by protesters angered by what they said was Hezbollah and its allies deciding who takes the country’s top Sunni post. Hezbollah has backed Hariri for prime minister from the start, but they differed over the shape of the new government. “I ask (protesters) to give us a chance to form an exceptional government” that can work on resolving the country’s many problems, accumulated over the past 30 years, Diab said.
It was not immediately clear if the riots that broke out in Beirut will affect Diab’s consultations with members of parliament scheduled for Saturday in preparation for the formation of the Cabinet. Diab faces huge challenges in trying to form a consensual government that would also satisfy protesters. Demonstrators have been on the streets since mid-October, seeking to sweep away an entire political class they deem as corrupt.

Clashes Renew between Army, Mustaqbal Supporters in Corniche al-Mazraa
Naharnet/December 21/2019
Fresh clashes erupted Friday evening between the army and Mustaqbal Movement supporters in Beirut’s Corniche al-Mazraa area. The confrontation erupted after troops reopened a key highway in the area. The protesters then retreated to the area’s internal streets and started hurling stones and firecrackers at the soldiers. They also started burning tires. The army responded by firing tear gas and was chasing the pro-Mustaqbal protesters. The road had been blocked since morning and minor scuffles had erupted in the afternoon. An army statement said seven soldiers were injured in the afternoon confrontation after protesters pelted them with stones. The army said the protesters sought to empty a truckload of rocks and sand to block the road but were prevented by the military. Clashes ensued afterwards which resulted in the injuries. The Mustaqbal supporters are protesting the appointment of Hassan Diab as PM-designate.

The International Republican Institute understands the issues in Lebanon well
John Hajjar/Face Book/December 21/2019
The International Republican Institute understands the issues in Lebanon well. The need to protect the protestors and ensure US aid helps them and not our enemies is paramount.
Dr.Walid Phares/December 19 at 10:44 PM
I had a good meeting at the International Republican Institute IRI headquarters in Washington DC today with the Middle East team, and John Hajjar of the AMCD regarding policies towards Lebanon. We discussed the US position regarding the Lebanese protests, Hezbollah, the newly appointed PM, the Lebanese Army, and US Aid. The Administration's officials dealing with the Lebanon file are focusing on the most appropriate steps to be taken in the near and medium futures.
My suggested priority is the protection of the protesters, who are the only factor that can move the country toward change at this point. Everything else will depend on the willingness of the "Hirak" to continue its peaceful efforts. Short of which, Lebanon will fall back into the pre October 17 mode, which had lasted for 30 years or so.

Samir Geagea despite everything remains for me the most credible current political leader
Roger Bejjani//December 21/2019
Samir Geagea despite everything remains for me the most credible current political leader. He acts like a man of state without being. He has a sense of public responsibility. He tries to contain populism as much as possible in front of the most populists and cheap party in Lebanon's history.
However, he has made 7 DRAMATIC MISTAKES IN THE LAST 4 years.
1. He joined the President's theory "strong and representative" in a republic of the parliamentary system. The President in such a regime must be a judge and guardian of the constitution. The very idea of a representative President (leader of a political party) is a breach of the spirit of the constitution.
2. He ran for the presidential election with a program! A great mistake thus challenging the constitution.
3. the vile agreements of me3rab. Although Aoun would have been elected to wear with or without the fl, this agreement on a cult basis that developed into (Non-Fair) Power-sharing has turned out to be a disaster. Without this agreement, aoun would have been elected with the membership (sooner or later of mustaqbal) without the vote fl (6 MPS).
4. He turned his back on his natural allies of March 14, promising mountains and wonders with the orange idiots. (although he was the last of the tenor to leave on March 14).
5. The vote of the electoral law that already guaranteed a parliamentary majority to hizbollah on paper. This law would have been voted without the fl. Why vote for this hybrid and hezbollahi law?
6. Participation in government post parliamentary elections. Knowing that the government will be controlled by hizbollah, why do it? The place des fl should have been the lead of the political opposition.
7. Abstention to nominate hariri on 18 December 2019. If he had done so hariri would have been nominated with more than 70 votes. He is said to have removed the Prime Minister's card from hizbollah and bassil. In the event that hariri has joined the concept of a national salvation cabinet of independent, it would have been stopped by Aoun / hezb. What would have reinforced the opposition around hariri, FL, kataebs etc.... The 1 Prime Minister nominated cannot be challenged, this card would have been in our hands.
With 7 BIG MISTAKES IN 4 years, Samir, who has the gift of the organization, should rethink the policy of the fl. Unfortunately I don't see any other person able to take over this party.

New Lebanon PM meets with parliamentarians on road ahead
Associated Press/December 21/2019
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s new prime minister held consultations Saturday with parliamentary blocs in which they discussed the shape of the future government and said afterward that legislators all had one concern: To get the country out of its “strangling” economic crisis.
Hassan Diab, a university professor and former education minister, will have to steer Lebanon out of its worst economic and financial crisis in decades. He’s also taking office against the backdrop of ongoing nationwide protests against the country’s ruling elite.
“Lebanon is in the intensive care unit and needs efforts” by all sides, from political groups to protesters, Diab said.
Consultations began a day after scuffles broke out in Beirut and other areas between supporters of outgoing prime minister Saad Hariri and Lebanese troops and riot police. The ex-premier’s supporters were protesting Diab’s nomination. At least seven soldiers were injured.
Diab told reporters later that all members of parliament encouraged him to form a Cabinet “as soon as possible.” Cabinets usually take months to form in Lebanon because of bargaining between rival groups.
Diab said he hopes to form a government of about 20 ministers made up of independents and technocrats within few weeks. “It’s time to work and we ask God to make us successful.”He added that the situation in Lebanon cannot stand any delays amid its worst economic and financial crisis since the end of the 1975-90 civil war.
Lebanese banks have imposed unprecedented capital controls in recent weeks. Thousands have lost their jobs and the economy is expected to contract in 2020. Diab began his meetings Saturday at Parliament with Speaker Nabih Berri, then held talks with former prime ministers, including caretaker premier Hariri. He later met with blocs at the legislature.
Militant Hezbollah and its allies had previously insisted that a new government consist of politicians and experts but on Saturday, Diab said “all parties agree with me regarding a government made up of independents and experts, including Hezbollah.”
Legislator Paula Yacoubian, who backs the protest movement, said Diab told her “the government will be fully made up of independents and that he will step down if there is going to be members of the state’s political parties.”She added: “I heard very nice talk similar to what the people have been demanding.”
The protesters have been demanding a government that does not include members of political parties whom they blame for widespread corruption. Diab said he will meet with the protesters in the coming days without elaborating.
Earlier on Saturday, Hariri cautioned supporters after meeting Diab against violent protests, saying: “The army is ours and police forces are for all Lebanese.”Shortly before sunset Saturday, scores of protesters including Hariri supporters, closed two major intersections in Beirut demanding that Diab step aside, saying he failed to win wide support from Sunni legislators. Saturday’s protests were peaceful unlike those of the night before when stones and firecrackers were hurled at security forces.
The new prime minister won a majority of lawmakers’ votes after receiving backing from powerful Hezbollah and its allies, which have a majority of seats in parliament.
However, he lacks the support of major Sunni figures, including the largest Sunni party headed by Hariri. That’s particularly problematic for Diab, who, as a Sunni, doesn’t have the backing of his own community. And under Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing agreement, the prime minister must be Sunni.
The head of Hezbollah’s 12-member bloc, Mohammad Raad, said the group wants a government that preserves what the Lebanese have achieved in “victories during the confrontation with the Israeli enemy and to maintain our national sovereignty, our maritime (oil and gas) wealth and land and to prevent the enemy from undermining its sovereignty and the national dignity.”
A lawmaker from the bloc led by the Shiite Amal group — headed by parliament speaker Berri — said the incoming government should focus on fighting corruption.
“It should be an emergency government that works on solving the economic, financial, social and banking crisis,” said Anwar al-Khalil after the meeting with Diab.
Samir al-Jisr of Hariri’s bloc said they will not take part in Diab’s government. Hezbollah’s ally, Gebran Bassil, who heads the largest bloc in parliament, said the future government “is not Hezbollah’s Cabinet but of all Lebanese and it is not against anyone.”
Michel Moawad, a harsh critic of the militant group, said Diab told him the new government will not be controlled by “Hezbollah and will not be confrontational.”
Hezbollah had backed Hariri for prime minister from the start, but the group differed with him over the shape of the new government.
Lebanon’s sustained, leaderless protests erupted in mid-October, and forced Hariri’s resignation within days. But politicians were later unable to agree on a new prime minister. The ongoing protests and paralysis have worsened the economic crisis.

Hezbollah-backed PM-designate faces backlash from Sunnis
Samar Kadi/The Arab Weekly/December 22/2019
BEIRUT - The nomination of Hezbollah-backed Hassan Diab as prime minister-designate to form Lebanon’s so-called “salvation government” will unlikely help the debt-ridden country to overcome its worst socio-economic and financial crisis since the 1975-90 civil war.
Diab’s designation, which came after caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri pulled out of the race, was endorsed by a weak majority in parliament comprising Iran-backed Hezbollah and its allies, Shia Amal Movement and President Michel Aoun’s Christian Free Patriotic Movement.
Hariri’s Future Movement bloc did not nominate a candidate in the much-delayed consultations with the president. Other blocs nominated former Ambassador to the United Nations Nawaf Salam.
Analysts said Diab’s failure to secure a consensus, especially from his Sunni community at exceptionally difficult times, makes it more complicated for him to form an inclusive government.
“Today we have a mobilisation of the Sunni community,” said political analyst Johnny Mounayar. “Whether they like Saad Hariri or not, the Sunnis feel that they have been humiliated and marginalised by Diab’s appointment. The mood is very tense and might be a prelude to Sunni-Shia friction.”Under Lebanon’s sectarian-based political system the prime minister should come from the Sunni community and is usually backed by the community’s main leaders.
“Diab has been stamped in the Western media as Hezbollah’s candidate and his government, regardless of how many ‘technocrats’ it will include, will be regarded as a Hezbollah-dominated administration,” Mounayar said. “A government dominated by Hezbollah, which has been targeted by increasingly biting US sanctions, is unlikely to secure billions of dollars in frozen aid for which Lebanon is in bad need.”
“We are obviously heading towards a polarised government which will not gain any international support because the US-Iran talks have not matured yet and Lebanon will be part of any US-Iran deal. The West wants to make Iran pay a price in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria,” Mounayar added.
Diab, a 60-year-old professor at American University of Beirut largely unknown to the public, served as minister of education from 2011-14 in a government formed after Hezbollah brought down a previous Hariri cabinet. Following Diab’s appointment, protesters gathered in Beirut’s Martyrs’ Square, the epicentre of the protests, and cut off roads. They rejected Diab and cast him as part of the old class of politicians they are revolting against.
“I see the country is going to waste. With this kind of government, no one will deal with it, no Arab, no Europe and no US,” Saeb Hujrat, a protester in the square, told the Associated Press.
In his first public address, Diab, who described himself as an “independent,” said he would work quickly to form a government in consultations with all political parties and representatives of the protest movement.
He said he is committed to a reform plan and described the current situation as “critical and sensitive” requiring exceptional efforts and collaboration. A daunting task awaits Diab and his efforts to form a government will almost certainly hit snags in the deeply divided country, even if Hezbollah and its allies sought to facilitate his mission, journalist Amin Kammourieh said.
“His (Diab’s) appointment could be a test,” Kammourieh said. “If (economic and political) pressures at home and from the international community exacerbated, Hezbollah and its allies might reconsider Diab’s eligibility or they would go for a unilateral government and take all the challenges that come with it.”
Visiting US Under-Secretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale encouraged Lebanese politicians to commit to the necessary reforms that can lead to a stable, prosperous and secure country.
“It’s time to put aside partisan interests and act in the national interest,” Hale said, adding the 2-month-old anti-government protests reflected the Lebanese people’s “longstanding and legitimate demands for economic and institutional reform, better governance and an end to endemic corruption.”
Demonstrators of all sectarian backgrounds have been in the streets every day since October 17 to demand the removal of the entire political leadership, seen as corrupt and incompetent.
Pierre Issa, secretary-general of the National Bloc party, which is participating in the protest movement, said protesters are mostly unhappy with Diab’s appointment and would continue demonstrating.
“We fear Diab might form a cosmetic cabinet of experts who are effectively controlled by political parties and this won’t solve the crisis,” Issa said.

Naming of prime minister-designate adds to Lebanon unrest
Simon Speakman Cordall/The Arab Weekly/December 22/2019
TUNIS - With unrest continuing across Lebanon, the naming of not widely known former minister Hassan Diab as prime minister-designate could open a new chapter in the fraught relations between the government and the country’s increasingly agitated population.
Anti-government demonstrators poured into central Beirut, protesting Diab being chosen for the post soon after the decision was announced. Across Lebanon, the Daily Star reported, roads were blocked as protesters rejected the former education minister’s selection.
For several weeks, protesters called for replacing Lebanon’s confessional system of government with a technocratic one. This would preclude parties representing the countries’ various sects from government.
While those demands were echoed among many senior politicians, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), the Amal Movement and Iran-backed Hezbollah were insistent that any government include a mix of technocrats and politicians. Popular anger was initially triggered by a series of small events, including a proposed tax on the WhatsApp messaging service, it “morphed quickly into protesters demanding a drastic overhaul of the country’s political system,” said Emily Hawthorne, a MENA analyst at risk consultancy Stratfor. “That is much easier said than done in Lebanon, where a complicated confessional system of governance in some ways predates even the modern country’s founding and was reinforced after the civil war’s end in 1990. The entrenched system is trying to defend itself against political reforms that risk eroding their power with sectarian constituencies,” she said.
Diab’s backing by the Shia Hezbollah and Amal, as well as their largest Christian ally, the FPM, could prove problematic. His lack of support from Lebanon’s main Sunni bloc is unlikely to help him form a new government or secure the Western backing that Lebanon desperately needs.
The severity of Lebanon’s financial circumstances is difficult to overstate. The confessional system of government, in which roles and ministries are allocated by sect, has become overwhelmed by corruption and little of the country’s infrastructure is functional.
The Lebanese pound has fallen to one-third of its official rate while banks impose tight capital controls. Across Lebanon, companies are cutting jobs and squeezing salaries.
“A government with a Hezbollah-backed prime minister would be even less likely to secure support from the Gulf countries… and might also potentially reduce the chances of Lebanon getting support from the [International Monetary Fund] if the US raises concerns,” Jason Tuvey, a senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, told Reuters.
The increasingly sectarian nature of the violence in the streets continues, something Diab’s appointment is unlikely to ease.
On December 16, hundreds of men on motorbikes crowded Beirut’s streets, carrying flags of Shia groups as they chanted, “Shia, Shia,” setting tyres on fire, throwing stones at security forces and setting cars ablaze, witnesses said.
The men, reportedly incensed by a video criticising Amal officials, including parliament Speaker Nabih Berry and religious symbols such as Imam Ali, attempted to break through a security cordon around a makeshift campsite erected by anti-government protesters. Security services used tear gas to push them back. The latest violence came after an especially brutal mid-December weekend in which 40 people were injured after police intervened to separate Amal and Hezbollah supporters from attacking protesters in central Beirut. Violence, however, escalated and police resorted to rubber bullets, tear gas and water cannons in an attempt to regain control of Beirut’s city centre.
“From the start, there has always been a concern that the protests could either turn sectarian, violent or both,” said Mouna Yacoubian, a senior adviser at the United States Institute of Peace.
“Indeed, the fact that the protests have still remained relatively peaceful is remarkable in and of itself given Lebanon’s history of civil war and conflict,” Yacoubian said. “The current unrest is largely the result of sectarian actors instigating greater violence by attempting to inject a sectarian element into the protests and by resorting to more aggressive tactics, e.g. throwing stones, in confrontation with security forces.”Little of the violence appears to be directed by any of the parties’ leadership. While Amal and Hezbollah were initially critical of the anti-government protests, their position has become more accommodating, raising questions about the motivations behind the violence. “What is more concerning is the prospect that some of the violence is being generated from the grass roots and that party and religious leaders have less control over these elements,” Yacoubian said.

Beirut Christmas carolling comes with a revolutionary twist
Samar Kadi/The Arab Weekly/December 22/2019
BEIRUT - While the drums of the popular anti-government rebellion were beating in Beirut’s streets during violent clashes in recent days, Christmas carols and Muslim Sufi hymns were sung in churches for the annual Beirut Chants Festival.
The pre-Christmas event, with 28 free concerts over December 1-23, offered the public a much-needed break from the pressures of the political and socio-economic crisis gripping Lebanon as attendees indulged in peaceful and spiritual, yet revolutionary, musical performances.
“We believe that music should be free for all, as we believe in tolerance and coexistence among different cultures and religions because we believe in unity,” said Micheline Abi Samra, founder of Beirut Chants Festival.
“Definitely the intercultural Islamic-Christian aspect is always present in the festival, and every year it is more pronounced and more sophisticated. Quranic chants are being chanted in churches at the same time as Christmas carols to encourage tolerance and mutual acceptance and understanding and to get to know each other better,” Abi Samra said.
Since the festival was founded 12 years ago, Lebanon has united each December for concerts in that very spirit, using culture and music to spread a message of hope for the country. This year it is even more pronounced with the anti-government rebellion that united protesters across Lebanon’s religions and regions. The concerts draw thousands of people to churches around Beirut every night for one or two hours of music — some classical, some religious and some unexpected, such as the revolutionary and nationalistic songs that marked some of this year’s concerts.
“This year, it is a miracle that we are still going on. I myself cannot believe it when I look at the churches and I see that every single night crowds are more numerous with different ages, different backgrounds and yet they are one when they listen to beautiful music,” Abi Samra said.
Beirut Chants is not just about bringing culture to the masses and bonding over beautiful music; it is also about voicing a powerful message.
One of the most acclaimed concerts was a religious event that combined Quranic singing by Muslim cleric Sheikh Ahmad Hawili and soprano Ghada Shbeir at the Saint Joseph Church in downtown Beirut.
Sheikh Hawili, a Lebanese Sufi singer, and Shbeir, who has a doctorate in Syriac chants, the oldest form of Christian singing, enchanted the audience.
“I found it unique and mesmerising,” said audience member Randa Imad. “The fact that there are a cleric and a vocalist singing lyrics from the Quran and the Bible, sometimes as a duo or alternately, was fascinating. The church was packed. The atmosphere was great. They even placed seats in the alleys to accommodate the crowd.”
Beirut Chants began in 2007 when Abi Samra said she wanted to make use of the beautifully renovated churches in Beirut and thought to bring life to those spaces to “feel that the community is participating and living the Christmas spirit in a beautiful way.”
The revolutionary mood prevailing in Lebanon affected this year’s festival, intertwining with the Christmas spirit.
Members of the rebellious young generation seeking change while expressing their attachment to Lebanon were well-served by Lebanese musician, composer and pianist Guy Manoukian, accompanying al Fayha choir, a group of 100 singers from all denominations. National and patriotic songs inflamed the Assembly Hall at the American University of Beirut (AUB), where the concert took place. “What I lived in that particular concert I haven’t lived for 12 years since Beirut Chants started. The national mood and the ambiance were already there… Emotions were high. People sang along and cried,” Abi Samra said. The performance by an ensemble from the Balamand University Choir and soprano Reem Deeb at the Assembly Hall was another highlight of the festival. Deeb presented a surprise song that sounded as a perfect contribution to the revolutionary situation. Some of the lyrics translate as follows: “In times of pain and poverty, Beirut cries for people’s hunger and people’s eyes weep for people’s thirst, yet, the Christmas spirit gives people back their dignity and faith.”An AUB student who attended the performance said the surprise anthem was “a beautiful addition to the festival, especially in times of hopelessness.”The people who gave standing ovations at the concerts understood the message of love and tolerance and the big hope that the differences in the Lebanese society are its strengths, Abi Samra said. “We should work on more projects that make us all one nation,” she added. Lebanon has been rocked by unprecedented popular protests over official mismanagement and corruption since October 17.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 201-22/2019
Egyptian tanks sent to Libya to thwart Turkish intervention in battle for Tripoli
DEBKAfile/21 December/2019
A consignment of Egyptian T-72 tanks and APCs arrived in Libya on Thursday, Dec. 19, to bolster Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), which had just broken through to the southern outskirts of Tripoli. This consignment was personally ordered by Egyptian President Abdel-Fatteh El-Sisi, DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources reveal, along with instructions to a number of Egyptian air force squadrons to stand ready to support Haftar’s push to take the capital from the UN-recognized Government of National Accord.
El-Sisi took those steps in response to the Erdogan government’s reported plan to send over a volunteer force from the Turkish Muslim Brotherhood (SADAT) to help the GNA resist Haftar’s push into Tripoli. SADAT consists of former Al Qaeda and ISIS jihadists recruited in Syria by the Turkish MIT intelligence agency. Our sources add that a number of Hamas activists hosted by Turkey have trained with these units.
It was in reference to this Turkish intervention in the Tripoli battle that El-Sisi declared this week: “The Libyan government has been held hostage by terrorist militias in the capital, Tripoli.”
This week, the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood convinced the Tripoli government to formally apply to Ankara for military assistance to repel the Haftar advance.
Turkish military aid to the GNA thus far consists of 3,000 army “advisers” and a steady supply of weapons systems, including anti-tank rockets and drones.

New Iranian drone base destroyed near Abu Kamal. First Saudi unit lands at Syrian oil field
DEBKAfile/December 21/2019
A new Iranian drone base near the eastern Syrian town of Abu Kamal was flattened early Saturday, Dec. 21 in this month’s fourth unidentified attack in this part of Syria. DEBKAfile military sources report that the target was Hamadan airport, which stood derelict until recently. Iranian forces moved in, carried out repairs and lately installed drones with operational teams there for attacks on northern Israel. Early Saturday, that installation was razed before it became operational.
Our military sources report another significant event which has only just occurred. At week’s end, a Saudi military contingent landed for the first time at the Syrian oil fields in another part of eastern Syria, the Deir Ez-Zour region. The Saudi troops took up positions around the Omar oil field, the largest in the country. They provided security for engineers and technicians of the Saudi State Aramco company who arrived to repair the pumping equipment disabled during the war years. The Saudi oil operation and troops at Omar oil field are being secured in their turn by US military and air units and Syrian Democratic Forces. Although the Saudi contingent is small, is arrival in Syria is a historic event of the highest order. The takeover of Syria’s largest oil field by a Saudi military force under an American umbrella is a regional game changer, which affords both them an advantage against Russia, Iran and Syria.

Tens of Thousands of Civilians Flee Renewed Syria Violence
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 21/2019
Tens of thousands of civilians are fleeing bombardment in Syria's Idlib region, the UN said, as fighting flares in the jihadist bastion fuelling an already dire humanitarian situation. The Idlib region, which is home to some three million people including many displaced by Syria's civil war, is controlled by the country's former Al-Qaeda affiliate, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The Damascus regime has repeatedly vowed to take back control of it. There has been an uptick in violence in Idlib since Monday and, despite UN calls for a de-escalation, major clashes between Syrian regime forces and armed groups has flared in the past 24 hours, killing more than 80 people on both sides, a war monitor said Friday. The fighting raged around the jihadist-held town of Maaret al-Numan in southern Idlib, said the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. It came as warplanes from Syrian regime ally Russia pounded areas around Maaret al-Numan and the nearby town of Saraqeb with a series of air strikes, it added. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA said tens of thousands of civilians have fled southern Idlib since Monday and headed north for safety, while thousands more were waiting for the violence to abate to leave. "Following the intensification of air strikes and shelling since 16 December in southern Idlib, tens of thousands of civilians are reportedly fleeing from Maaret al-Numan area in southern Idlib governorate to (the) north," OCHA said. The UN agency said a shortage of fuel for private vehicles is limiting the movement of civilians while roads leading out of the town are "extremely dangerous" as they are reportedly being hit by air strikes. "Since the evening of 19 December, residents of Maaret al-Numan town... began to communicate to the humanitarian community that they wanted to move to safety, but were unable to move due to the heavy aerial bombardment," the UN agency said. "The numbers of families who already fled in the past 72 hours are estimated to have reached tens of thousands and there are thousands of others who are potentially waiting for the air strikes and bombardment to ease to allow them safety to move," it added.
'Situation is very bad' -
On Friday alone "hundreds of families are reported to have fled north", it said. The UN agency said the displacement of civilians was straining an already dire humanitarian situation, specially because it is happening during the winter. "Displacement happening in winter months is exacerbating the vulnerability of people in need. "Many of those who fled are in urgent need of humanitarian support, particularly shelter, food... (and) non-food items such as winter clothes and health services," it said. OCHA said that some of the displaced who moved north had not eaten in days. "Renewal of intensive fighting in the south-eastern sector of the Idlib province may result in more and more people being displaced towards northern parts of Idlib," OCHA warned. Yasser Ibrahim al-Dandal said he was fleeing with his family to olive groves in northern Idlib, where they would sleep out in the open. "Hundreds of rockets hit Maarat al-Numan," he told AFP. "The situation is very bad." Meanwhile hundreds of people held a protest camp for the displaced near the border with Turkey on Friday, decrying the escalation around Maaret al-Numan. According to the Observatory, fighting over the past 24 hours killed 42 jihadists, nine rebels and 30 Syrian regime loyalists.Pro-government forces launched a blistering offensive against the region in April, killing around 1,000 civilians and displacing more than 400,000 people from their homes. Since August, the area has supposedly been protected by a ceasefire announced by Moscow, but bombardments have persisted. Syria's war has killed over 370,000 people and displaced millions from their homes since beginning in 2011 with the brutal repression of anti-government protests.

Syria Says Possible Drone Attacks Hit 3 Oil, Gas Facilities
Associated Press/Naharnet/December 21/2019
Near-simultaneous attacks believed to have been carried out by drones hit three government-run oil and gas installations in central Syria, state TV and the Oil Ministry said Saturday. No one claimed responsibility for the attacks, which targeted the Homs oil refinery — one of only two in the country — as well as two natural gas facilities in different parts of Homs province. Syria has suffered fuel shortages since earlier this year amid Western sanctions blocking imports, and because most of the country's oil fields are controlled by Kurdish-led fighters in the country's east. State TV said it believes the attacks were carried out by drones and happened at the same time. It said a fire at the Homs oil refinery was soon put under control. The report said the Rayan gas facility and a third installation, also in Homs province, were hit. Syria's Oil Ministry said the attacks damaged some "production units" in the facilities. It said fires were being fought, and that repairs were already underway in some places. The city of Homs and its suburbs have been fully under Syrian government control since 2017. However, some parts of the province near the border with Jordan remain in rebel hands. In June, sabotage attacks damaged five underwater pipelines off the Mediterranean coastal town of Banias in Tartous province. Syria's oil imports dropped in October 2018 and shortages began in early 2019, largely the result of tighter Western sanctions on Syria and renewed U.S. sanctions on key Syrian ally Iran. Before the Syrian conflict erupted in 2011, the country exported around half of the 350,000 barrels of oil it produced per day. Now its production is down to around 24,000 barrels a day, covering only a fraction of domestic needs. In September, a drone and missile attack in Saudi Arabia hit the world's largest crude oil processing plant, dramatically cutting into global oil supplies. Saudi Arabia says "Iranian weaponry" was used. Iran denies its weapons were involved.

Russia, China have blood on their hands after veto on Syria aid: Pompeo
Reuters, Washington/Saturday, 21 December 2019
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Saturday said Russia and China had blood on their hands after the two countries used a veto of a UN Security Council resolution to block cross-border aid deliveries from Turkey and Iraq to millions of Syrian civilians. “The Russian Federation’s and China’s veto yesterday of a Security Council resolution that allows for humanitarian aid to reach millions of Syrians is shameful,” Pompeo said in a statement. “To Russia and China, who have chosen to make a political statement by opposing this resolution, you have blood on your hands,” he added.
Russia, backed by China, on Friday cast its 14th UN Security Council veto since the start of the Syrian conflict in 2011. The resolution, drafted by Belgium, Kuwait and Germany, would have allowed cross-border humanitarian deliveries for a further 12 months from two points in Turkey and one in Iraq. But Syrian ally Russia only wanted to approve the two Turkish crossings for six months and had proposed its own draft text. Russia and China vetoed the text while the remaining 13 members of the Security Council voted in favor. A resolution needs a minimum nine votes in favor and no vetoes by Russia, China, the United States, Britain or France to pass. “The United States will remain committed to helping the voiceless, the hungry, the displaced, and the orphaned receive the humanitarian aid they require to survive no matter where they live,” Pompeo said. Since 2014 the United Nations and aid groups have crossed into Syria from Turkey, Iraq and Jordan at four places annually authorized by the Security Council. In a bid to compromise with Russia, the Jordan crossing was dropped by Belgium, Kuwait and Germany from their draft. The current authorization for the four border crossings in Turkey, Iraq and Jordan ends on January 10, so the Security Council could still attempt to reach an agreement, though some diplomats acknowledged this could now be difficult.

Iran’s Rouhani welcomes Japan opt-out of US-led naval mission in Gulf
Reuters, Dubai/Saturday, 21 December 2019
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Saturday welcomed Japan’s decision not to join a US-led naval mission in the Gulf, in remarks carried by state television. Friction between Tehran and Washington has increased since last year when US President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with six nations and re-imposed sanctions on the country, crippling its economy. Washington proposed the naval mission after several attacks took place in May and June on international merchant vessels, including Saudi tankers, in Gulf waters which the United States blamed on Iran. Tehran denies the accusations. In July, Iranian forces seized a British tanker in the Gulf after British marines captured an Iranian vessel in the Strait of Gibraltar. Both ships were later released. “Japan has announced it will not take part in the Americans’ plans for security in the (Gulf) region ... which is something we welcome,” Rouhani said on state TV after returning from a visit to Malaysia and Japan. “Japan is sending a surveillance vessel but not to the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz,” he added. Japan, a US ally maintaining friendly ties with Iran, is looking to launch its own operation rather than joining the US-led mission to protect shipping in the region. The planned Japanese operation is set to cover high seas in the Gulf of Oman, the northern Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden, but not the Strait of Hormuz. According to a draft plan approved by parties in the ruling coalition, Japan will deploy a destroyer and P-3C patrol aircraft for gathering information in the Gulf region - the source of nearly 90 percent of Japan’s crude oil imports.

Airstrikes on rebel-held northwestern Syrian town kill 7
The Associated Press, Beirut/Saturday, 21 December 2019
Airstrikes on a rebel-held town killed seven people and wounded more than a dozen Saturday in Syria’s northwestern province of Idlib, the last remaining rebel stronghold in the war-torn country, opposition activists said. The attack came amid a government offensive in the region.
The latest casualties in the town of Saraqeb came as government forces captured two new villages on the southern edge of Idlib. The province has been the center point of a government push under the cover of airstrikes, according to opposition activists and pro-government media.
The offensive has already forced thousands of civilians to abandon their homes and flee for their lives. Saraqeb and Maaret al-Numan are two major rebel-held towns that sit on the highway that links the capital Damascus with the northern city of Aleppo, Syria's largest. The opposition’s Syrian Civil Defense, also known as White Helmets, said that both towns are almost empty after most civilians fled. Before this latest bout of violence that began a few weeks ago, the UN reported that some 60,000 Idlib residents had been displaced in recent weeks by the government offensive.
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said seven civilians were killed and more than 20 wounded in the Saturday morning airstrikes on Saraqeb. An activist collective known as Saraqeb Now also reported a similar death toll. Since a cease-fire imposed at the end of August collapsed in the past weeks, the government has been pushing to clear access to the strategic Damascus-Aleppo highway. Syrian troops have been pushing northward toward Maaaret al-Numan in recent days. Idlib, that is dominated by al-Qaida-linked militants, is home to 3 million civilians and the UN has warned of the growing risk of a humanitarian catastrophe alongside the Turkish border.

Thousands flee bombardment in northwest Syria, head to Turkish border
Reuters, Beirut/Saturday, 21 December 2019
Thousands of people have fled to the Turkish border from the last big opposition stronghold in northwestern Syria because of an intensified bombardment by Russian forces and the Syrian army, residents and rescue workers said on Friday. A long line of vehicles was seen on Friday leaving the opposition-held city of Maarat al Numan which has borne the brunt of the attacks, which included air strikes, they said. “The exodus is in the thousands. It’s a humanitarian catastrophe, we are seeing people walking in the streets and people waiting near the homes for cars to take them out,” said Osama Ibrahim, a rescue worker from Maarat al Numan. Air strikes killed six people overnight in Maarat al Numan and 11 were killed in villages in the area, rescue teams said. Hundreds of people have been killed this year in attacks on residential areas in the region, according to UN agencies, though a Syrian and Russian military campaign launched at the end of April had subsided in August under a fragile ceasefire. Syrian state media said the Syrian army had pushed into several villages southeast of Idlib. Rebel fighters, who say the Russian and Syrian forces are implementing a scorched earth policy as they advance, said villages seized included Um Jalal in southern Idlib province and Rabea and Harbiya in eastern Idlib. Russia and the Syrian army, which is loyal to President Bashar al-Assad, deny allegations of indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas and say they are fighting al Qaeda-inspired militants. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who reached an accord last September with Russia to contain the fighting and whose country is seen by many civilians in opposition areas as a protector, has warned of a renewed refugee influx. Erdogan said on Thursday 50,000 people were fleeing Syria’s northwestern region of Idlib. He did not say whether any of the people fleeing had entered Turkey.

US removes Sudan from religious freedom blacklist
AFP, Washington/Saturday, 21 December 2019
The United States on Friday lifted fast-changing Sudan from a blacklist for religious freedom violations as it issued warnings to Nigeria, Cuba and Nicaragua. Sudan was the only nation removed from the State Department's annual list of “countries of particular concern,” which are subject to sanctions if they do not better protect religious liberty. Civilian economist Abdalla Hamdok became Sudan's prime minister in September, pledging national reconciliation after decades of military rule and conflict. But Hamdok’s government is still waiting for a bigger prize from the United States -- removal from a list of state sponsors of terrorism, a designation that has severely impeded investment. Nine countries remained on the blacklist including Pakistan, which was designated in 2018 after years of US hesitation over concerns on the treatment of minorities including through abuse of a blasphemy law, which can carry the death penalty. Also on the list was China, which according to rights groups and US officials, has incarcerated at least one million Uighurs and other Muslims, and US ally Saudi Arabia, which imposes the rigid Wahabi school of Islam. The other countries on the list were Eritrea, Iran, Myanmar, North Korea, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. “No country, entity or individual should be able to persecute people of faith without accountability,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement. “We have acted, and we will continue to do so,” he said, calling religious freedom a priority for President Donald Trump's administration.
The State Department added Cuba, Nicaragua and Nigeria to a watchlist of countries that could face a full designation if they do not improve their records. In Nigeria, the State Department said in its latest report on religious freedom that minorities have reported discrimination including limits on free expression and in obtaining government employment. The State Department pointed to the lack of accountability in violent crackdowns on the Islamic Movement in Nigeria, a pro-Iran Shia group, and the arrest of a Christian man for attempting to covert a Muslim girl. The State Department said that religious groups faced restrictions and harassment in both Cuba and Nicaragua, leftist-led nations that have come under growing pressure from Trump. Russia and Comoros remained on the watchlist. Sudan as well as Uzbekistan, which was removed from the blacklist in 2018, were also on the watchlist.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 21-22/2019
Unanswered Iranian provocations in Iraq undermine US influence
Tallha Abdulrazaq/The Arab Weekly/December 22/2019
The United States reacted angrily to news that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps proxies in Iraq had, yet again, targeted bases housing US troops and military equipment.
The Trump administration issued a stark warning to the Iranians of a “decisive” retaliation should Tehran’s actions bring harm to Washington’s interests in Iraq. It is, however, extremely unlikely that the United States will do anything to bring Iran to heel in Iraq or elsewhere in large part because the mullahs called Uncle Sam’s bluff each time they were threatened and got away with it. In the past five weeks, Iran-backed Iraqi Shia militant outfits have launched ten attacks on US bases and interests, utilising longer-range 122mm rockets. Outgoing Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi received a phone call December 16 from US Defence Secretary Mark Esper, who called on the caretaker Iraqi prime minister to do more to defend American interests in Iraq.
Esper’s call followed comments he made to US lawmakers that “Iran should not mistake the United States’ restraint for an unwillingness to respond with decisive military force.” That, however, is indeed the “mistake” that Iran has been making and is continuing to make without ever being corrected. After all, the spate of rocket attacks is hardly the first such instance of an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) proxy targeting US military deployments and other interests.
Earlier this year, the US State Department evacuated non-emergency staff members from its embassy in Baghdad, citing security concerns and threats from Iran-linked groups. This caused US oil giant ExxonMobil to remove its staff in May as a “precautionary measure.”A month later, IRGC-backed Shia jihadists launched a rocket attack on a compound housing ExxonMobil employees near Basra and the oil company evacuated its staff again. Iran also shot down an American drone over international waters last summer in the Arabian Gulf. US President Donald Trump made a whole song and dance in the US media and on Twitter about how he had been “cocked and loaded,” ready to retaliate against three Iranian military targets but changed his mind at the last second because of the potential for Tehran to lose 150 soldiers.
Such drama hardly holds water, though, particularly when one considers that the United States could have struck any number of IRGC targets, a formation that Washington considers a foreign terrorist organisation.
In sum, and taken with the December 17 announcement that the State Department will decrease its footprint in Iraq 28%, it would appear that Iran was right to call the United States’ bluff.
The US drawdown in Iraq is indicative of its wider policy of disengagement. Iran hardly needs to attack US interests in Iraq at all. If it simply bides its time, it is likely that Washington will all but totally withdraw without much need for further encouragement of the terrorist variety that Tehran is so well known for.
The United States is absolutely not interested in any kind of military confrontation with Iran. The veritable mountain of Iranian provocations that have gone unanswered by the United States has allowed the mullahs to conclude that the White House is all bark and no bite.
This is catastrophic for US influence not only in Iraq, which is arguably already lost to Iran, but it will reduce regional confidence among traditional American allies in the Middle East who may begin to view this as a further manifestation of American indifference to the threats they face daily because of Iran’s belligerence. It is time for the Americans to put up or shut up when it comes to Iran.

Changing the relationship with Morocco should be part of Tebboune’s quest for ‘New Algeria’
Mohamad Kawas/The Arab Weekly/December 22/2019
It will be a pointed and interesting exercise to monitor the performance of Algeria’s new president, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, who won an election that stirred controversy over its merit.
While the new president makes promising statements to reassure the popular movement and calm its passions, it remains to be seen whether Tebboune can take the traditional “deep state” head-on and change Algeria’s hostile foreign policy towards Morocco.
Algeria may have valid and objective reasons to be angry at Morocco, reasons that may be related to its internal affairs that make it reluctant to explore solutions with its neighbour.
Morocco may also have reasons that pushed matters with Algeria to a dead end but it is to the credit of Moroccan King Mohammed VI to have made repeated offers to Algeria to return to dialogue that could result in full normalisation in the two countries’ relations.
Tebboune spoke of a new Algeria and King Mohammed VI found the moment opportune in his congratulatory message to reiterate his offer “for starting a new page in the relations between the two neighbouring countries.”
Tebboune had shown openness for dialogue with Morocco on two occasions. As a candidate, Tebboune called on Rabat to apologise to Algeria for accusing it of having been involved in the bombing of the Atlas-Asni Hotel in Marrakech in 1994. After the election, he declared that certain circumstances had led to the closing of the border between Algeria and Morocco and that “the problem will disappear once its causes are removed.”
It wasn’t expected of the new Algerian president to announce a radical reversal in his country’s stance towards Morocco. However, since Algeria has witnessed a real revolution that led to the removal of the Abdelaziz Bouteflika regime, Morocco became hungry for a shift in Algerian politics that would do away with the old, sterile rhetoric that characterised Algeria’s relationship with Morocco.
While the Bouteflika regime advanced several arguments for not opening borders between the two countries, Moroccans considered the core of the dilemma relates to the question of Western Sahara. Rabat considers it Moroccan territory while Algeria supports the Polisario Front.
A remarkable development occurred two months ago from within the Algerian political class. Ammar Saadani, the former secretary-general of the National Liberation Front Party, acknowledged that “the Sahara is Moroccan,” that “Algeria had paid a high price for its support for the Polisario” and that “the closed borders between the two countries must be reopened.”
Saadani is part of the main ruling circle in Algeria and is described as being close to Algerian military Chief-of Staff General Ahmed Gaid Saleh. Even if Saadani made his declarations in Paris, it can be assumed he was not just “making conversation.”
There is persistent talk about Saadani’s imminent return to assume an important position in Algeria, which raises more questions about the nature of his Western Sahara position and about whether his declarations were a message from within the Algerian regime to major world capitals, especially Paris.
The interview with Saadani was published October 17, before the Algerian elections. At the time, he signalled to the outside world more than to Algeria that “the relationship between Algeria and Morocco is greater than this issue (support for the Polisario),” considering that Algeria, Tunisia and Libya are going through significant changes that could revitalise the Maghreb.
Tebboune and Saadani are two figures from the same regime in Algeria and therefore the “problem and causes” mentioned by Tebboune do not hide an internal debate (expressed by Saadani) in the corridors of power in Algeria.
Some within the circle of power may come out and regard Saadani’s views as a personal opinion that does not bind the state but this would not change the fact that this unprecedented acknowledgement of Moroccan identity of Western Sahara broke down a taboo and gives Tebboune new ground to build on.
Algeria absolves itself from any interference in the affairs of Morocco, considering that it has nothing to do with the matter of the dispute between Rabat and the Polisario Front. It has argued that it is just a member, with Mauritania, of the monitoring team in any talks related to the Western Sahara conflict, while UN Security Council resolutions, especially last October’s Resolution 2494, consider Algeria as involved in the conflict and its solution. So the way to overcome the dispute between Algeria and Morocco requires giving up the old rhetoric.
Morocco cannot expect a major shift in Algeria’s official position, which has been in place since 1975. It would be unfair for Rabat to rush the new Algerian president for a radically new philosophy of his country’s foreign policy before testing the man’s capacity to wage an internal battle that meets the aspirations of the street. The “New Algeria” for which Tebboune is advocating requires that he performs in a way that persuades people at home as well as the world’s capitals, especially Morocco, that the country is shifting to accommodate the effects of the popular earthquake that hit the whole political class.
In his December 19 speech, Tebboune said: “The question of the Moroccan Sahara is a matter of decolonisation and it is an issue in the hands of the United Nations and the African Union and it should remain far from disturbing relations with our brothers in the Maghreb.”
This is an ambiguous position that might be described as both firm and flexible. The big question, however, is this: Isn’t changing Algeria’s relationship with Morocco the strongest message of change for people at home before those outside?

The Turkish decade that will live in infamy
Stephen Starr/The Arab Weekly/December 22/2019
In 2010, Turkey was regarded by some as an exemplary case of economic and internal stability, having weathered the global financial crash better than most other countries. The 2010s were set up for a defining decade as it approached its centenary as a modern state in 2023.
A nascent peace process with Kurdish militants was taking shape and Kurdish civilians enjoyed an unprecedented level of rights with the lifting of restrictions on broadcasting and minority languages, including the opening of a state Kurdish channel — TRT Ses — in 2009.
Istanbul’s Taksim Square was opened for the first time in decades to May Day demonstrators and trade unionists in 2010. “Constitutional amendments granted the right of collective bargaining for public-sector employees,” said Amnesty International, describing it as a major shift towards workers’ rights.
A decade ago, Ankara was beginning to enjoy the keen ties it had worked hard to develop with a host of important regional and international actors (excluding Israel, following a deadly raid on a Turkish-dominated flotilla to Gaza). In 2009, Turkey signed an agreement to open diplomatic relations with Armenia. With Abdullah Gul as president and Recep Tayyip Erdogan as prime minister backed by a fleet of keen, ideological local politicians spread across Anatolia, the future looked good.
By 2013, Istanbul and other cities in Turkey served as sanctuaries for thousands of Syrians fleeing political and other forms of persecution.
On the streets of Istanbul’s Beyoglu district, Syrian Kurds openly wept at hearing traditional songs, banned in their home country, performed in public for the first time. Syrian intellectuals gathered in teahouses giddily imagining a democratic future for their homeland.
On the economy front, Turkey has undergone enormous change with the building of billions of dollars’ worth of infrastructure projects. The Justice and Development Party, which has ruled throughout the decade, is a building party; its mantra: construct new facilities for the masses — trains, housing, bridges, airports and highways — and come election time your seat in parliament will be all but assured. However, the latter half of the decade has seen Turkey slide into an autocratic grip from which there appears no way out.
Tragically miscued policies in Syria, including allowing rebels, who by 2015 morphed into fundamentalist extremists, over the southern border, contributed to a series of Islamic State attacks in Istanbul, Ankara and elsewhere that year. There has been a return of the decades-long war with Kurdish separatists that continues and which has taken thousands of civilian lives in south-eastern Turkey.
The failed coup in July 2016 triggered one of the most widespread human-rights crackdowns the world has seen in recent years, with hundreds of thousands of suspected opponents of the government detained, many without trial. Today, Turkey’s economy is flagging. With Erdogan alone at the helm and with no one to stop him driving the country into the ground from his $615 million, 1,100-room palace in Ankara, its international isolation looks set to continue. Incredibly, GDP per capita stands at less than $9,000, around $1,000 less than in 2010 and a staggering $3,500 less than in 2013, the year before Erdogan took over as president.
That means that, despite the widespread availability of easy credit, Turks today are more than one-quarter less well off than they were the year before Erdogan took complete control of Turkish politics. That’s a staggering indictment of the president and the government’s failures. On the street, people are frustrated and jaded, in part because of the constant rhetoric of conspiracy that dominates newspapers, TV and radio but mostly because there’s less money to go around.
Many observers say the troubles engulfing the country are because of events outside Turkey’s control — the war in Syria and consequent refugee crisis and the broader, global move away from emerging markets by investors. They wouldn’t be wrong.
In truth, however, these are minor factors: Syrian refugees, in fact, fuelled major economic growth and development in south-eastern Turkey and in poorer parts of Istanbul. It was Erdogan’s constant meddling in the country’s monetary policies that saw the lira lose most of its value against major currencies (when I moved to Turkey in May 2013, the lira stood at 2.2 to the US dollar. Today, it’s 5.88 and falling).
In 2010, Erdogan’s leading allies were Ahmet Davutoglu, Abdullah Gul and the other visionaries that transformed Turkish politics. Today, as the president continues his hell-bent mission to retain power, they are his rivals — enemies, even. These days Syrians in Istanbul hide from police charged with relocating them to the Turkish hinterland.
In 2017, academic Howard Eissenstat wrote how “One of the core arguments that President Erdogan has offered for expanding his power through constitutional reforms is that further centralisation of authority will increase stability. Yet the experience of the past ten years has demonstrated that the opposite is true.”Though there are signs that a critical mass may be fed up with the president’s ways, the battle for the future of Turkey has yet to begin and the ten years to come look very grim.

Migrants will always be with us — and so they should
Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/December 22/2019
Any discussion of migrant woes must be prefaced with a simple but often ignored fact; most of the “migrant problems” plaguing the global community are attributable to resistance to a natural and inevitable phenomenon. Migration is as old as the formation of our first societies, but despite centuries of examples of the opportunities it affords, we still have no permanent solutions.
Instead, solutions are subordinated to reactionary nativism, which has led to humanitarian crises and even threatened to destabilize entire countries. To some, migration has become an existential crisis, fueled by spurious allegations, cherry-picked statistics and scapegoating and cultivating fear of the “other” to score political victories. As a result, migration policies are defined more by what countries will not do instead of what can and should be done.
This intense dislike of the “other,” entrenched stereotypes, muted responses to migrant boats in the Mediterranean and caravans in the Americas, are now threatening to color a new generation’s perceptions. Frontlines are drawn between the desperate seeking hope, and those fearful of claims their communities will be overrun by different cultures, languages or religions. These issues are not unique to the wealthier nations. Even in middle-income countries, young people prefer to migrate elsewhere while incoming migrants from low-income nations are relegated to temporary labor without opportunities to settle permanently.
Many forget that the world has always had these flows; people flee war, persecution, poverty, drought, famine and disease, or simply to better their lot. In fact, migration’s predictability, and demonstrable benefits, leave no excuse for not having solutions, even for the occasional migrant surge; in the future, climate migrants will probably face the same issues.
It is harder now with more migration hard-liners winning elections by promising zero tolerance, despite the inevitable consequences of permanently shutting the door on new arrivals.
Migration can be a social good and an economic boon, not just a gateway to hope for the desperate and vulnerable. It is an opportunity for host nations seeking to replenish an aging labor pool and maintain sufficient consumption levels to keep economies growing. After all, as more and more will be drawing on pensions or expecting welfare benefits, it will require maintaining growth and increasing aggregate consumption. Inward migration attracts investment from entities seeking stable economies with the necessary infrastructure for a young, dynamic and diverse workforce to consistently deliver positive returns.
However, controlled migration is too limited, slow and painfully bureaucratic to deliver on these aims, even if that is the intention; and uncontrolled migration is fraught with too many risks, political or otherwise, to guarantee benefit for both migrant and host nation.
Each passing day leaves less time to craft, test, amend and implement cogent migration policies. It is harder now with more migration hard-liners winning elections by promising zero tolerance, despite the inevitable consequences of permanently shutting the door on new arrivals. On the other hand, open borders would cause entire communities to buckle from a sudden surge in dependents in the time between arrival and integration into society as contributors to national income.
It is in any case a morbid endeavor to reduce the case for migration reform to this numbers game. However, hard-liners often emphasize the financial cost of each migrant, often framed as exploitation of existing citizens. Thus, when the Canadian government says each Syrian refugee costs up to $34,000 a year, it is not framed as an investment that will pay for itself many times; instead it is condemned as theft and misuse of public funds, reinforcing resentment that often manifests as swelling ranks of Islamophobes and race supremacists.
As long as there are disparities between nations in wealth, incomes, resources, social advancements and other developmental factors, there will always be migration. No quantity of barbed wire, border walls and makeshift camps will ever stem that tide without instigating newer crises. If anything, these measures serve only to demonstrate the stark contrast between purported humanitarian ideals and the appalling lack of them in addressing self-made humanitarian woes. Now tens of thousands languish in camps and in limbo, behind border fences or barriers, made to feel unwelcome before stepping foot in another land that, despite the cold reception, remains a source of hope.
• Hafed Al-Ghwell is a non-resident senior fellow with the Foreign Policy Institute at the John Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. Twitter: @HafedAlGhwell

The curious diplomacy of US sanctions on allies
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/December 22/2019
US President Donald Trump has signed a defense budget package that includes sanctions against companies and individuals involved in the construction of the Nordstream 2 pipeline.
Nordstream 2 will double the capacity of the existing Nordstream 1 pipeline and transport an additional 55 million cubic meters of gas from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. The complex subsea project will circumvent the traditional surface pipelines via Ukraine. It guarantees better security of supply for client countries no longer at the mercy of annual squabbles over payment between Russia and Ukraine.
The pipeline is owned by the Russian gas company Gazprom, which is financing half of it,
with the rest covered by its European partners — Wintershall and Uniper of Germany, Anglo-Dutch Shell, Engie of France and OMV of Austria.
The US opposes the pipeline, on the ground that it will make Germany and the rest of Europe more dependent on Russia. Germany’s defense budget, which is not expected to reach the NATO-stipulated 2 percent of GDP for some time, has been a thorn in the side of US president. He takes a dim view of the US paying a disproportionate amount to defend a NATO ally against Russia when that ally is dependent on Russia for its gas supply. Moreover, thanks to the shale revolution, the US is an exporter of liquid natural gas, for which US companies need new export markets.
Through the German prism, however, things look different. Germany has imported Russian gas since 1973. Gazprom has been a reliable supplier, and has not missed a single BTU, even during the traumatic break-up of the Soviet Union. The energy connection is advantageous, from both a commercial and a strategic perspective; countries that trade with each other are far less likely to engage in conflict, armed or otherwise.
The US sanctions pose the question of whether energy security is a matter of national sovereignty, or of bowing to the will of allied nations with different priorities.
Germany has furthermore embarked on an “Energiewende” (energy transition), which entails closing down all nuclear power plants by 2022 and reducing carbon emissions by 95 percent by 2050 compared with 1990; the latter goal becomes ever more stringent with every new climate-change or energy law, and in line with the European Commission’s aim for Europe to be the first climate-neutral continent. Nuclear power plants emit zero carbon dioxide. The decision to close down nuclear reactors, which constituted 30 percent of the country’s electricity generation as recently as 2000, was taken after the Fukushima incident in Japan. Triangulating the ambitious climate-change goals with the closure of nuclear power plants is a challenge for the German government, and makes low-carbon-emitting gas an important transition fuel.
Nordstream 1 and 2 are a significant part of Germany’s energy strategy. The US sanctions pose the question of whether energy security is a matter of national sovereignty, or of bowing to the will of allied nations with different priorities.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel reacted calmly, and said she saw “no option but to talk to the US and make it clear that the German government does not approve of extraterritorial sanctions.” Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said European energy policy was decided in Europe, not in the US.
More than 2,000km of Nordstream 2 has been laid, leaving only 300km until the project is complete, but sanctions apply anyway. The Swiss subsea engineering company Allseas has suspended work on the pipeline off the coast of Denmark, effective immediately; so the long arm of US sanctions reaches as far as the Swiss Alps.
However, Maas and Merkel have a point. How a country achieves energy security is an issue for its government, and thus a matter of national sovereignty. Imposing sanctions on allies is an interesting tool of diplomacy. Merkel is right not to adopt a tit-for-tat strategy, which would be futile. Dialogue is the only way these two NATO partners can solve this dispute. Germany has every interest in getting along with the US and vice versa; they are anchor NATO members and important trading partners. However, Germany also has its specific needs when it comes to energy security and getting along with its neighbors.
*Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert.

US troop reduction in Afghanistan will have great significance
Rustam Shah Mohmand /Arab News/December 22/2019
Reports from Washington indicate that the US will announce a partial troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in the next few days. The withdrawal of 4,000 troops is likely to be spread over several months.
The decision comes in the wake of talks with the Taliban now taking place in Doha, Qatar. US chief negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad had several rounds of negotiations with Taliban leaders in Doha last week, though there is currently a pause in talks following deadly attacks by the Taliban.
On Tuesday, US Defense Secretary Mark Esper said the decision to withdraw about 4,000 troops would be made regardless of whether a peace deal was reached with the Taliban. The decision is creating an impression that the reduction in US troop levels is consistent with America’s grand strategy for the area.
Secondly, the move is designed to put pressure on the Afghan government to end its opposition to any deal that is reached with the Taliban. The US wants to convey a clear message: No matter what, Washington wants to end its military involvement in Afghanistan, and Kabul should see the writing on the wall.
Thirdly, Washington believes that its decision will create a conducive environment for a peace agreement that will have both the Afghan government and the Taliban on board.
Currently, there are about 14,000 US troops in Afghanistan. After the partial withdrawal, there will be about 10,000 soldiers left in the country. The commander of US forces in Afghanistan, Gen. Scott Miller, has assured Washington that the withdrawal will not impact the capacity of American forces to launch counterinsurgency attacks or to train Afghan forces. But there are disturbing factors that will weigh heavily on the minds of senior military officers. The training of Afghan forces has not really delivered. The desertion rate from the Afghan military has been rising. The level of devotion to duty has been far from satisfactory. There is considerable disappointment in the US military over the ability of the Afghan Army to withstand the pressure of Taliban attacks across the country. Because it is an unwinnable war, the US has embarked on a strategy of reconciliation, though the realization has come late in the day.
The “Afghanistan papers” — secret memos obtained and published by The Washington Post earlier this month — shed light on how determined efforts were made at the highest levels of the US leadership to hide the facts of the conflict from the American public. The papers also reveal how ignorant American civilian and military leaders were on the objectives of the US involvement in Afghanistan after the toppling of the Taliban government in late 2001.
The partial withdrawal of forces could pave the way for a sustainable peace in the war-ravaged country. All stakeholders should ensure that the opportunity is not wasted.
Another factor is contributing to the US desire to begin withdrawing troops: President Donald Trump is facing impeachment. These are difficult times for a beleaguered Trump, and he would like to show a tangible achievement in ending a long war that has cost the US $1.5 trillion.
The conflict has caused more than 3,000 US military deaths; another 4,000 US military contractors have perished in the 18-year war. In addition, more than 25,000 soldiers have been seriously wounded. These realities are forcing Washington to review its strategy and seek an exit that does not look like a military defeat. The Taliban is speaking from a position of strength. But it would be advised to go along with any deal that promises an end to the foreign military presence in a stipulated period of time with guarantees from regional countries.
Hopefully, the draft that was agreed between the Taliban and US negotiators in Doha in September will be revived and implemented. Washington will have to adopt a tough stance toward the Afghan government, which wants a continuance of the status quo because that ensures its power and privileges.
The issue of a cease-fire will not be easy to handle. Taliban leaders in Doha will perhaps wish to go along with a phased cease-fire in areas vacated by US forces. But Taliban supremo Haibatullah Akhunzada is not fully convinced about the need for a cease-fire at all.
The other formidable challenge is the formation of an interim government that includes the Taliban. Inevitably, the mechanism of a Loya Jirga, or Grand Assembly, will have to be invoked to resolve these complex issues. The partial withdrawal of forces could pave the way for a sustainable peace in the war-ravaged country. All stakeholders should ensure that the opportunity is not wasted.
*Rustam Shah Mohmand is a specialist in Afghan and Central Asian affairs, and was Pakistan’s ambassador to Afghanistan.

Turkey Pivots to Tripoli: Implications for Libya’s Civil War and U.S. Policy
Soner Cagaptay and Ben Fishman/The Washington Institute/December 21/2019
Facing pressure from General Haftar and his foreign military backers, the Tripoli government has welcomed the helping hand extended by Ankara, whose own lack of regional options has drawn it into the middle of another conflict.
On December 10, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that he was willing to deploy troops in Libya if the UN-backed Government of National Accord in Tripoli requested it. He reiterated the offer during a December 15 meeting with GNA prime minister Fayez al-Sarraj in Ankara—a visit that arose after Gen. Khalifa Haftar, who heads the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) and seeks to replace the GNA, renewed his push to take Tripoli by force.
Meanwhile, Turkey signed two controversial agreements with Tripoli over the past month: a memorandum of understanding on providing the GNA with arms, training, and military personnel, formally ratified by Tripoli earlier today; and a November 28 maritime agreement delineating exclusive economic zones in the Mediterranean waters separating the two countries. The latter move drew protests from Greece and Egypt and was condemned “unequivocally” by the European Council.
These and other developments indicate Libya’s emerging status as a focal point of Ankara’s foreign policy, which seemingly regards the country as an arena for Turkish proxy competition with rivals old (Greece) and new (Egypt and the United Arab Emirates). At the same time, Libya’s GNA has become increasingly dependent on Ankara for military reasons—namely, a lack of other allies willing to provide arms capable of countering the LNA’s Emirati-supplied drones, and the arrival of Russian mercenaries who have added new technology and precision to Haftar’s war against Tripoli.
Unless Washington invests more diplomatic energy and fully backs the German-led initiative to implement a ceasefire and return to peace negotiations, the proxy war in Libya will only escalate. In that scenario, Turkey and Russia—not the United States or its European partners—could be become the arbiters of Libya’s future.
TURKEY’S ONLY FRIEND IN THE REGION
Ankara’s Libya policy stems from its isolation in the East Mediterranean, which has gradually worsened since the rupture of Turkish-Israeli ties in 2010 and Erdogan’s regional policy miscalculations during the Arab Spring uprisings. On the latter front, his support for Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood in 2011-2012 cost him dearly after that government was ousted by mass protests and replaced with a military administration. And when he refused to recognize the subsequent government of President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, he alienated powerful members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who supported Sisi and were deeply concerned about the role of the Brotherhood and other political Islamist movements in regional politics. (Qatar was the lone Gulf exception, actively working with Turkey to support Islamist political parties in the Middle East and form de facto alliances against Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia on various fronts.)
Meanwhile, Turkey’s support for rebel groups in the Syria war put it at odds with Damascus and Iran, as well as Tehran’s regional allies inside Lebanon and the Iraqi government. In short, Ankara’s loss of regional partners was nearly total by the time Libya’s civil war erupted in 2014, setting the stage for Turkey’s turn to Tripoli.
At the time, Erdogan threw his support behind the Tripoli/Misratah-based “Dawn Coalition,” which opposed Haftar’s “Dignity Coalition.” For their part, Egypt and the UAE were worried about the ascent of political Islam in Libya and eager to undermine Erdogan, so they quickly backed Haftar and his avowed “anti-Islamist, anti-terrorist” agenda. Among other assistance, they carried out airstrikes on his behalf.
Today, Cairo and Abu Dhabi have vastly increased their support to Haftar’s latest offensives, including through Emirati drone-strike technology and operators. Turkey has sought to counter these moves by providing the GNA with drones of its own (though fewer than the UAE has given Haftar) as well as additional weapons and armored personnel carriers. As noted by a recent UN report, all of these multiparty weapons transfers have been conducted in blatant disregard of the Security Council’s arms embargo in Libya.
COUNTERING THE EAST MED BLOC
Turkey has recently found itself pitted against an emerging coalition of old and new adversaries across the East Mediterranean, mainly Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, and Israel. Given its cool-to-hostile relations with these states, Ankara is alarmed by the rate at which they have come together in strategic cooperation, including joint diplomatic, energy, and military initiatives.
Soon after coming to power, for example, Sisi opened talks with Greece to delineate their maritime economic areas. He then held a three-way summit in November 2014 to promote a deal for supplying natural gas to Egypt from undersea fields off the coast of Cyprus. Cairo also hosted the inaugural meeting of the East Mediterranean Gas Forum earlier this year, notably excluding Turkey.
On the military front, Egypt has been conducting joint air exercises with Greece since 2015. The first of these, “Medusa,” was held on the Greek island of Rhodes just twelve miles from Turkey’s coast. Cypriot forces began participating in Medusa drills in 2018; separately, they carried out three rounds of joint exercises in Israel earlier this year.
Ankara’s new maritime agreement with Tripoli was forged in part to counter such cooperation. The November 28 accord established a virtual maritime axis between Dalaman on Turkey’s southwest coast and Darnah on Libya’s northeast coast (far from the GNA’s practical area of control). In Erdogan’s view, drawing this line will allow him to cut into the emerging Cypriot-Egyptian-Greek-Israeli maritime bloc, while simultaneously pushing back against Egypt and the UAE’s pressure on the GNA.
POTENTIAL REPERCUSSIONS INSIDE LIBYA
Although Europe and the United States have warned the GNA that forming closer relations with Turkey would endanger its support in the West, authorities in Tripoli felt they had no alternative after eight months of renewed fighting. GNA military losses have increased due to Emirati drone strikes and Russian snipers, while conditions in the capital have worsened as tens of thousands of internally displaced persons seek refuge in Tripoli. (GNA supporters in Tripoli and Misratah constitute the majority of Libya’s population, but Haftar and his eastern-based allies control substantially more territory.)
With Haftar showing no interest in political compromise and the international community doing little to pressure his foreign backers, the new Turkish-Libyan defense memorandum could help deter further escalation—particularly since Egypt does not want a military confrontation with Turkey. Further escalation in Libya could open the door to Ankara and Russia supplanting the West and the UN in the battle to determine Libya’s future. Although Erdogan and Vladimir Putin currently back opposing sides in the civil war, their operational track record in Syria speaks volumes about their potential for reaching an understanding in Libya. The two leaders spoke about the Libya situation by phone on December 17, and Putin is scheduled to visit Turkey in January for a meeting focused specifically on that issue.
CONCLUSION
To date, the Trump administration has taken a back seat during Haftar’s offensive. On November 13, it hosted two senior GNA officials in Washington and issued a joint statement opposing the LNA’s military campaign. Yet when a U.S. delegation headed by Deputy National Security Advisor Victoria Coates met with Haftar in the region eleven days later, it issued no such public warning. Two weeks after that, Haftar declared that “Zero Hour has come” for Tripoli, and the LNA reinvigorated its offensive.
U.S. indecision regarding the battle for Tripoli has allowed the Russians to gain influence on the southern flank of NATO. It has also created another unnecessary friction point with Turkey, as well as between Ankara and other U.S. allies in the East Mediterranean. Washington now has a narrow window to prevent further violence in Libya and limit Moscow’s influence there. To do so, it must fully back the German-led effort to convince all relevant outside parties—including Turkey and its regional rivals—to commit to a ceasefire and halt arms transfers. U.S. officials should also threaten to use existing sanctions authorities against violators of a ceasefire once it is signed.
Without U.S. participation, the Berlin initiative will falter as facts on the ground create more violence and stoke tensions between U.S. allies in the region. The best way to curb Moscow’s interference is not by coopting Haftar, but rather by pushing his other backers, mainly the UAE and Egypt. These countries seek positive relations with Washington, and this desire should be used as leverage to extract their support for the Berlin process and a much-needed ceasefire.
*Soner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family Fellow at The Washington Institute and author of the book Erdogan’s Empire: Turkey and the Politics of the Middle East. He would like to thank Deniz Yuksel for her assistance with this analysis. Ben Fishman is a senior fellow at the Institute and former director for North Africa at the National Security Council.