LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 01/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
No one tears a piece from a new garment and sews it on an old garment; otherwise the new will be torn, and the piece from the new will not match the old
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 05/33-39/:”Then they said to Jesus, ‘John’s disciples, like the disciples of the Pharisees, frequently fast and pray, but your disciples eat and drink.’ Jesus said to them, ‘You cannot make wedding-guests fast while the bridegroom is with them, can you? The days will come when the bridegroom will be taken away from them, and then they will fast in those days.’ He also told them a parable: ‘No one tears a piece from a new garment and sews it on an old garment; otherwise the new will be torn, and the piece from the new will not match the old. And no one puts new wine into old wineskins; otherwise the new wine will burst the skins and will be spilled, and the skins will be destroyed. But new wine must be put into fresh wineskins. And no one after drinking old wine desires new wine, but says, “The old is good.””.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 01/2019
Uprising Enters Day 45, Police Release Detained Female Protester
Report: Govt. Formation Could Initiate CEDRE Aid at Paris Meeting
Lebanon petrol stations suspend strike
Gas Station Owners Suspend Strike
Petrol station strike paralyses Lebanon as crisis deepens
Students Against Conflicts: A march for peace
Joint women's demonstration from Ashrafieh, Khandak Ghamik
"Lebanon will not be alone," says Zaki
Boustani reiterates pledge to import Fuel on Monday
Rahi upon returning from Cairo: We pray for our officials to abandon their rigid stands, follow the path of virtue and goodness
Qamati: We adhere to Hariri and there are positive windows with the arrival of the international message
Bteich meets with a delegation of bakery owners
Symbolic stand in front of the Iraqi Embassy in solidarity with the Iraqi demonstrators
Protests against refugee integration outside EU Embassy

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 01/2019
Iraq’s protests hold threat of Shiite internecine showdown, key to Tehran’s control of Baghdad
Iraqis Keep Up Anti-Regime Demos despite PM's Vow to Quit
Iraqi cabinet approves PM's decision to quit as anti-government protests continue
Turkey-Libya maritime agreement draws Greek ire
Iranian general Qassem Soleimani visits Baghdad as Iraq PM resigns: Sources
Iranian opposition leader compares Supreme Leader to toppled Shah
Iran disputes ‘exaggerated’ protest death tolls
Macron, Erdogan in war of words ahead of NATO summit
Hundreds march in Sudan capital seeking justice for those killed in protests

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 01/2019
Students Against Conflicts: A march for peace/Paula Naoufal/Annahar/November 30/2019
Iranian regime's priority is ensuring its survival and quashing regional protests/Raghida Dergham/The National/November 30/2019
Time is running out to save Lebanon from disaster/Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/November 30/2019
Enemies of Lebanon 1 of 3: The Monetary System/Elie Aoun/November 30/2019
*Iraq’s protests hold threat of Shiite internecine showdown, key to Tehran’s control of Baghdad/DEBKAfile/November 30/2019
Turkey: Reliving the Glory/Gory Days of Jihad/Raymond Ibrahim/FrontPage Magazine/November 30/2019
China Adopts Malicious "Cybersecurity" Rules/Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/November 30/2019
London terror attack: inadequacies in system proved fatal/National Editorial//November 30/2019
Why Erdogan’s belligerence is out of control/Dr. Theodore Karasik/Arab News/November 30/2019
New EU leaders, same old problems/Cornelia Meyer /Arab News/November 30/2019
Internal rifts behind NATO’s anniversary unity/Andrew Hammond/Arab News/November 30/201
Netanyahu is dividing Israel to save his own skin/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/November 30/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 01/2019
Uprising Enters Day 45, Police Release Detained Female Protester
Naharnet/November 30/2019
Police released on Saturday from the Ashrafieh Police Station in Beirut a female protester detained a day earlier against the backdrop of a dispute with security forces. Dana Hammoud, was released early on Saturday where dozens had gathered outside the station demanding her release.
Her parents, lawyer and a group of activists denounced that she was kept overnight arguing that she did not commit a “major offense.”She was arrested during a confrontation with police near Beirut’s Central Bank in Hamra where a group of protesters were gathering close to a gas station complaining about a fuel shortage. After her release, Hammoud said she had signed a pledge to respect the security forces. She said: “Rest assured that whoever touches me, I will respond. I don't have any regrets about what I have done.”On social media, a video circulated showing Hammoud in a confrontation with an officer who pushed her to the ground and detained her as she resisted back. The Internal Security Forces issued a statement saying that Hammoud was trying to prevent a police vehicle from leaving the area which compelled for their intervention.On the other hand, protests against the political class continue. In the northern city of Tripoli protesters rallied near the Qadisha Electricity company and the Bahsas station, the National News Agency said. Demonstrators also protested against an increase in the prices of goods rallying near the Spinneys supermarket headquarters in Dbayeh.
In Akkar, protesters set up tents in the Akkar plain, at the Kfarmelki junction affirming that their protests will not stop until the uprising meets its demands. More than a month into unprecedented anti-government protests, Lebanon is facing a dual political and economic crisis. The government stepped down on October 29, less than two weeks after the first demonstration, but the country's deeply divided political parties have failed to form a new one.

Report: Govt. Formation Could Initiate CEDRE Aid at Paris Meeting
Naharnet/November 30/2019
France reportedly seeks to call for a conference of the International Support Group for Lebanon before mid-December manifesting readiness to launch the CEDRE grants if Lebanon forms a government, An-Nahar daily reported on Saturday.The daily quoted French “presidential” sources who spoke on condition of anonymity, they said: “The convention aims to urge Lebanese authorities to accelerate the formation of a new government according to the international standards expressed lately, mainly composed of competent specialists and members of the popular movement, and committed to structural reforms and fighting corruption.”The sources pointed out that “if Lebanese parties respond to these proposals, the international support group for Lebanon will provide the financial support and assistance that Lebanon urgently needs and will accelerate the implementation of CEDRE conference decisions.”
Consultations continue between Paris and organizers concerned with the International Support Group to determine the deadline for the meeting, said the daily. The meeting reportedly is to be chaired by French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian in the presence of Secretary Generals of the participating ministries and concerned countries of the group, according to the daily. Donors at the CEDRE conference last year in Paris pledged $11 billion in aid and soft loans to Lebanon which are conditional upon the implementation of reforms that Lebanon committed to. But since October 17, Lebanon has been grappled with nationwide protests over widespread corruption and mismanagement that worsened Lebanon’s worst economic and financial crises since the 1975-90 civil war ended, as did the resignation of the government late last month. Although Hariri resigned his government on Oct. 29, Aoun has not yet set a date for binding consultations with heads of parliamentary blocs to name a new premier.

Lebanon petrol stations suspend strike
ReutersSaturday, 30 November 2019
Lebanon’s petrol stations syndicate chief announced on Friday night that the union will suspend its strike starting tonight, state news agency (NNA) quoted Sami al-Brax as saying. Lebanese daily Al-Nahar cited al-Brax saying the union was suspending its strike to hold talks with authorities and added the syndicate would have a meeting on Monday. The union had called for an open-ended strike starting Thursday because of losses incurred from having to buy dollars on a parallel market, the main source of hard currency during the country’s economic crisis.

Gas Station Owners Suspend Strike
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 30/2019
Owners of gas stations in Lebanon suspended a one-day strike on Saturday that paralyzed the country and drove angry Lebanese to block in protest the highways with their vehicles creating traffic jams. Sami Brax, the head of the Syndicates of Gas Station Owners, announced the “suspension of the strike after holding contacts with the Energy Ministry,” said LBCI. On Thursday, gas stations began an open-ended strike as owners are demanding that they be allowed to hike prices saying they are losing money because of the shortage of dollars in the market. The price of the dollar has dropped 40 percent on the black market after it was stable at 1,507 pounds to the dollar since 1997. In Beirut and several areas across the country, motorists parked their cars in the middle of the road, saying they ran out of petrol. In other areas angry protesters blocked roads to express their anger against closure of gas stations.
The strike came as the nation grapples with nationwide protests that began Oct. 17 over widespread corruption and mismanagement. The protests have worsened Lebanon’s worst economic and financial crises since the 1975-90 civil war ended, as did the resignation of the government late last month.
Although PM Saad Hariri resigned his government on Oct. 29, President Michel Aoun has not yet set a date for binding consultations with heads of parliamentary blocs to name a new premier. The protests were initially sparked by new taxes but quickly evolved into calls for the entire political elite to step aside.

Petrol station strike paralyses Lebanon as crisis deepens
Aljazeera/November 30/2019
Angry motorists blocked roads with their vehicles in Beirut and other parts of Lebanon on Friday, creating traffic jams to protest against a strike by owners of petrol stations demanding an increase in gasoline prices as the local currency drops and the nation slides deeper into a financial crisis.
The road closures around Lebanon came as President Michel Aoun headed a meeting of the country's top economic officials to discuss the rapidly deteriorating economic and financial situation in the country. Nationwide protests that began on October 17 over widespread corruption and mismanagement have worsened Lebanon's most serious economic and financial crises since the 1975-90 civil war ended, as did the resignation of the government late last month. Although Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned his government on October 29, Aoun has not yet set a date for binding consultations with heads of parliamentary blocs to name a new prime minister. The protests were initially sparked by new taxes but quickly evolved into calls for the entire political elite to step aside. Friday's meeting was attended by the ministers of economy and finance, the central bank's chief, the head of the banking association as well as the economic adviser of the outgoing prime minister.
Highly indebted country
Lebanon is one of the world's most highly indebted countries, and the country's banking sector has imposed unprecedented capital control amid a widespread shortage of dollars.
Lebanon protests
Since the protest began in October, the price of the dollar has dropped 40 percent on the black market after it was stable at 1,507 pounds to the dollar since 1997 [Nabil Mounzer/EPA] People have not been allowed in recent weeks to withdraw as much as they want from their bank accounts. The price of the dollar has dropped 40 percent on the black market after it was stable at 1,507 pounds to the dollar since 1997.During the meeting, Aoun put forward suggestions to come out of the crisis and it was decided that the central bank governor would take necessary measures regarding coordination with banks to issue circulars to preserve stability, said a statement read by Salim Sfeir, the chairman of the Association of Banks in Lebanon. "The meeting discussed financial and banking conditions that the country is passing through that has begun to negatively affect most sectors," the statement said, adding that Lebanon will remain committed to its free-market economy. US dollar shortage and Lebanon's economic crisis. The shortage of liquidity has led to the collapse of businesses and over previous months scores of institutions have closed and thousands of employees were either laid off or had their salaries cut.
Petrol stations began an open-ended strike on Thursday, with owners demanding that they be allowed to increase prices, saying they are losing money because of the shortage of dollars in the market. In Beirut and several areas across the country, motorists parked their cars in the middle of roads, saying they had run out of petrol. In other areas angry protesters blocked roads to express their anger against the closure of the petrol stations. Politicians, meanwhile, have failed to agree on the shape and form of a new government. Hariri had insisted on heading a government of technocrats, while his opponents, including Hezbollah, want a cabinet made up of both experts and politicians.
UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jan Kubis said he met on Friday with central bank governor Riad Salameh and discussed with him measures "urgently needed to stop the further deepening" of the economic crisis and to increase the ability of the banking sector to cope with the pressures.
"Formation of a credible and competent government that can regain the trust of the people and of the international partners of #Lebanon is the priority," Kubis posted on social media.

Joint women's demonstration from Ashrafieh, Khandak Ghamik
NNA /November 30/2019
A women's rally set out from Tabaris this afternoon, with most of its participants being mothers from the area of Ashrafieh, carrying roses and chanting the national anthem. "We do not want sectarianism; we want national unity," was one of the prominent slogans raised by the protesters.
The women demonstrators were joined by their fellow protesters who set out in a similar women's march from the area of Khandak el-Ghammik in Beirut.

"Lebanon will not be alone," says Zaki
NNA /November 30/2019
Arab League Assistant Secretary-General, Hossam Zaki, stressed Saturday in an interview with "Sawt El Mada' Radio Station that "Lebanon will not be left alone, and its assistance is based on its readiness to respond."
"Arab funds are ready to help, but there should be a responsible government, for the formation of the government is the platform in this endeavor," he emphasized. "Lebanon is going through a pivotal phase, which we hope will be for the better and that the political step would precede the economic step towards a solution," Zaki corroborated. He added: "The economic situation in Lebanon is very stressful and we are working to monitor the measures that can be taken, and initiatives will be presented when the exploration process is completed." "The Secretary General of the Arab League, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, has asked me to meet with various Lebanese parties in order to help in overcoming the crisis," Zaki concluded.

Boustani reiterates pledge to import Fuel on Monday
NNA /November 30/2019
Caretaker Minister of Energy and Water, Nada Boustani, re-confirmed Saturday her previous promise that "the Lebanese state will import 10% of the market's needs of fuel, which will be sold in Lebanese pounds on Monday."
Boustani blamed the Central Bank's plan for the energy sector, saying: "What is happening today in the hydrocarbon sector is due to a mechanism set by the Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh without coordination with the Ministry of Energy and Water." However, she concluded that "the continued rise of the lira against the dollar will restore the crisis."

Rahi upon returning from Cairo: We pray for our officials to abandon their rigid stands, follow the path of virtue and goodness
NNA /November 30/2019
On his return from the Egyptian capital, Cairo, where he attended the Catholic Patriarchs of the East Council meetings, Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rahi pursued today the Rosary prayer in Bkirki, with the participation of believers in Lebanon and the world, dedicated to Lebanon's salvation from its current crisis. In his homily, the Patriarch prayed for the country's officials to "get out of their state of deadlock, abandon their rigid stances and take the path of goodness and righteousness."
Al-Rahi prayed for the souls of the fallen martyrs to rest in peace and for the Lord to inspire compassion and devotion in the hearts of state officials. "Perhaps this would drive the conscience of those responsible for the growing devastation at all levels...who stand as idols with no feelings and without realizing what is happening," he said. Rahi called for "intensifying prayers for them [officials] so that God can move their consciences and free their wills, so they would understand the meaning of responsibility."
He added: "Responsibility is not a boastful matter, but rather a service and selflessness for the common good."The Patriarch concluded by indicating that the Church is supporting the people's civil movement in wake of its conviction that "from this civic movement, a new Lebanon will be born."

Qamati: We adhere to Hariri and there are positive windows with the arrival of the international message
NNA /November 30/2019
Caretaker State Minister for Parliamentary Affairs, Mahmoud Qamati, expressed Saturday commitment to PM Saad Hariri to head the new government, in light of his Sunni representation and his role in taking responsibility for the crisis prevailing in the country.
"Positive windows to the solution have opened in wake of the international community's message to various political parties in the country, including more than one international side," Qamati said in an interview with "Sawt El Mada" Radio Station earlier today. He stressed that "there will be no street against another; for every street is our street and we agree to all its livelihood demands."Qamati considered that the financial policies that have been adopted for the last thirty years and more are responsible for the crisis we are living today, in addition to the external pressure on Lebanon. "Lebanon is required today to embrace the displaced Syrians and the resettlement of the Palestinians within the deal of the century, whereby Lebanon's rejection of these resolutions does not satisfy Washington, which is why it is putting economic pressure on us," he explained. On the issue of naming the new prime minister, Qamati said: "The decision to postpone the parliamentary consultations is logical and wise, in order to avoid problems." "There are international threats to any government of one color, so we do not want to drag the country towards any risks. We do not deny that the presence of PM Hariri or any figure of his choice helps Lebanon due to international acceptance," he asserted. Qamati reiterated his support for any reform measures by the government, calling on Hariri to convene the cabinet in a session that would help in easing the situation as much as possible, and increase the level of optimism among the Lebanese.

Bteich meets with a delegation of bakery owners
NNA /November 30/2019
Caretaker Economy and Trade Minister, Mansour Bteich, met Saturday with a delegation of bakery owners, who came to raise their demands and discuss the difficulties they are facing due to the rise in cost of products and the existence of a two-dollar exchange rate. Bteich reassured the delegation of finding mechanisms to preserve their rights and to protect citizens in their daily-living needs, without burdening them with additional costs, especially in the price of bread. It was agreed to hold another meeting early next week to look into possible solutions that would ensure a balance between the interests of bakery owners and consumers and their food safety.

Symbolic stand in front of the Iraqi Embassy in solidarity with the Iraqi demonstrators
NNA /November 30/2019
Dozens of protesters gathered outside the Iraqi Embassy in Ramlet al-Baida in Beirut this evening, in a symbolic solidarity stand with the Iraqi demonstrators, holding banners expressing their support and lighting candles for the souls of the fallen martyrs, NNA correspondent reported.

Protests against refugee integration outside EU Embassy
NNA /November 30/2019
Lebanon Uprise" Association organized a rally in front of the European Union Embassy on Saturday, to demand the international community to ensure the return of Syrian and Palestinian refugees to their countries. In this context, the participants sent an open letter to the EU Ambassador to Lebanon, Ralph Tarraf, highlighting "the serious damage this integration can cause to Lebanon". “In fact, with about two million refugees, Lebanon has the highest concentration of refugees in the world (40% of its population), while the Lebanese themselves are no longer able to support themselves," the letter read. "In the midst of the severe economic crisis in Lebanon, where the unemployment rate has exceeded 37% ... the return of refugees to their country has become a necessity," the letter added.

Students Against Conflicts: A march for peace
Paula Naoufal/Annahar/November 30/2019
Such marches are essential because they show the power of the youth and that students are the the root of the revolution.
BEIRUT: From Banque Du Liban to Riad Solh and under the slogan of “students' refusal of strife,” various student organisations and student clubs took part in a march on Saturday, November 30.
Participating groups included: LAU Ghayir movement, ULS civil society, LAU journalism club, LAU social work club, AUB Palestinian cultural club, AUB secular club, MADA network, USJ secular club, LAU human rights network, NDU’s independent list, “Nehna Tollab,” and LAU’s Entrepreneurship club.
They marched with candles and Lebanese flags while chanting anti-corruptions slogans mainly focusing on the economic situation and the central bank’s performance.
Lynn Al Shami, member of LAU’s Ghayir Movement, stated that such marches are crucial to show student’s unity against the government’s actions.
“The future is for the current students and we want to ensure an ameliorated future for ourselves. We do not want to immigrate. Additionally, we are the pulse of the revolution and the ones that are most affected by the consequences of the current economic situation,” she told Annahar. “We do not want to repeat our parent’s mistakes.”
Rami Abu Shakra, NDU student and activist, stated that “the reason for participating is self evident. We all have to be present in the streets. Lots of people were talking about how they thought our uprising was dying out. But around the second week, all the student marches that happened across the country in the streets, squares, and campuses, gave them hope. We convinced people that this uprising was capable of real change because there's an entire new generation that's willing to fight for it stubbornly and relentless”.
Maria Romeo Youssef, activist in “Nehna Tollab,” stated that the group has been participating in this march for many reasons. First, to remind everyone that this revolution did not die and will never die until they get all their demands fulfilled. Second, because they believe that they should stand against the violence they have witnessed on the streets in the past week to prove that their unity and the peacefulness of this revolution conquers everything. And third, because of their hope of a better future in this country.
She also added that “Nehna tollab is a group of students from many universities, backgrounds and religious groups, who happened to meet each other and bounded during this revolution. Uniting and collaborating with other student groups is a goal of ours. We want to peacefully fight for our rights and the right of every lebanese citizen. After all, students are the pulse of the revolution.”Verena El Amil, president of USJ secular club, also said that such marches are essential because they show the power of the youth and that students are the the root of the revolution.

Iranian regime's priority is ensuring its survival and quashing regional protests
Raghida Dergham/The National/November 30/2019
Tehran is banking on Lebanese protesters running out of steam while at home and in Iraq, the situation is more complex
Iranian leaders and their allies are counting on stamina to weather the storm and are hoping demonstrators’ energy and fervour will wane as the year draws to a close. In Iran, Iraq and Lebanon, the Iranian regime’s priority is securing its survival and preventing the three uprisings from bearing fruit by any means necessary – whatever the cost.
Russia remains committed to its Iranian ally and is confident of its promise to stop the spread of instability. What is new is the shift in the European position with regards to Iran. The Europeans have run out of patience with Iran’s violations, not just in terms of the 2015 nuclear deal but also the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps's direct participation in staging riots, and stoking sectarianism and violence against peaceful protests in Lebanon, from its outposts in Syria and the Bekaa Valley.
This has made countries like Germany draw closer to the US position, despite previous opposition, causing concern and anger among the ranks of the Iranian leadership. A few days ago, German daily Der Spiegel reported that the nation’s interior ministry had requested an inquiry into Hezbollah’s activities, with an agreement reached by the government in Berlin to impose a total ban on the organisation in Germany next week. The report said Germany would treat members of Hezbollah members as it treats ISIS.
Iran has decided to take a rigid, escalatory and uncompromising approach
For 18 months, US ambassador to Berlin Richard Grenell sought to persuade European states to adopt the American perspective on Iranian and Hezbollah activities; the new policy in Germany bears his hallmarks. Iran will undoubtedly be furious. The leadership in Tehran spared no effort in convincing the Europeans to push for exemptions from US sanctions but has since been steadily let down as European banks and businesses refused to deal with the regime, fearing they too would be sanctioned. The Iranians have used a combination of blackmail and threats, and a pattern of escalation and de-escalation, aware that a US-European alliance would further increase their isolation. Meanwhile, as protests rage on home turf, sources say the regime in Tehran is determined to reject any dialogue with demonstrators. Iran’s leaders are convinced the protests in Lebanon will die down in a matter of weeks. In short, Iran has decided to take a rigid, escalatory and uncompromising approach.
The Europeans are concerned about a possible Iranian assault of the level and magnitude of the attack on Saudi Aramco facilities. They are also concerned about Iran clamping down on demonstrations at home and dragging the Lebanese uprising into violence by engineering chaos that would consolidate Hezbollah’s control of the country. Such actions would inevitably impact relations.
Berlin is resentful of Iranian threats and blackmails against Germany, France and Britain, all signatories of the nuclear deal. The German government believes the time has come to publicly call out Iranian violations of the deal instead of continuing to try to salvage it. After Us President Donald Trump walked out last year, the deal can no longer be revived, given the inability of European powers to compel businesses to trade under the Instex special purpose vehicle designed to bypass sanctions. Iran’s nuclear enrichment actions and ballistic missile programme have driven another nail into the deal’s coffin. The IRGC’s involvement in the suppression of protests in the region could mobilise public opinion in Europe against the Iranian regime’s authoritarianism and expansionism.
Mr Trump is said to be annoyed by attempts by French President Emmanuel Macron to ingratiate himself as mediator with Tehran while suggesting lifting sanctions. The source said: A US source said the administration was willing to talk but negotiations would not be conditional on lifting or easing sanctions.
The Trump administration will continue using sanctions as a tool to tame, isolate, contain and punish the regime in Iran. If European pressures on the regime increase, its isolation and financial hardship will only deepen. But the question is: what will its leaders then do?
In Lebanon, the Iranian leadership thinks the crisis will not last longer than another month due to fatigue and the impasse that protests have reached
In Iraq, the situation looks extremely complex and difficult for Iran, with no light at the end of the tunnel as protests continue and the death toll rises. Iranians are hurting themselves and their neighbour by refusing to allow Iraq to become a normal country. The regime’s logic does not allow for a withdrawal from Iraq or the disbanding of the Popular Mobilisation Forces. The bloodshed will continue and the risk of a US-Iranian military confrontation will increase, either because of deliberate provocation by the Iranians to draw Mr Trump into conflict or as a result of an incident involving US forces in Iraq.
In Lebanon, the Iranian leadership thinks the crisis will not last longer than another month due to fatigue and the impasse that protests have reached. The Iranian leadership is betting protesters’ endurance will decrease as the ruling class plays a waiting game.
So far Washington has succeeded in ensuring European support for the demands of the uprising, led by the need to form a government of technocrats rather than politicians affiliated to traditional parties under the dominance of Hezbollah and the IRGC.
The situation is now very delicate. If Iran succeeds in suppressing the Lebanese uprising, the ruling class will return with a vengeance and retaliate against those who dared to question them and call for them to be held accountable.
Western powers are waking up to the fact the key to protecting Lebanon from chaos and total collapse is to pressure and punish Iran and its proxies. But accountability will take time. It is therefore necessary to be patient and think pragmatically and strategically if the uprising is to achieve its lofty goals.
*Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute

Time is running out to save Lebanon from disaster
Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/November 30/2019
Crowds swell with boiling frustrations. The tension is palpable. Protesters gather on the streets, peacefully for now. It is happening on almost every continent; in fact, if this year is remembered for anything, it will be the unprecedented number of protest movements illustrating the gaping chasms in our increasingly polarized world. Whether it is climate change, war, human rights, immigration, politics, economics or society as a whole, ever widening gaps in ideology, income, race and religion have served only to incense the marginalized.
Beirut and other parts of Lebanon are awash with some of these themes. Weak but intransigent government and public impatience are now threatening to unleash the true cost of a political class resistant to change, and teetering on the brink of collapse.
A dollar crunch has sent the Lebanese lira into freefall; it has lost about 20 percent of its value on the black market, and the hard currency shortage will lead to greater inflationary pressure on food and essential goods, most of which are imported.
These woes add to a growing list of grievances that have sent many Lebanese pouring on to the streets to demand change. Half-salaries, lost jobs, empty shops and small business owners considering permanent closure combine with frustrations from electricity shortages, poor infrastructure and undrinkable water. Corruption is rampant, exacerbated by grossly unequal wealth distribution; about 3,000 people together take the same share of national income as half the population.
Lebanese banks that were once the pillar of the economy operate under tight restrictions to limit withdrawals of dwindling deposits. Billions in funds have already left the country since protests began in October, compounding a local banking crisis that began in 2011, when the porous border with Syria led to an influx of 1.5 million refugees. That put downward pressure on tourism and created surging demand for public utilities such as water and electricity.
Loan defaults in the private sector have also skyrocketed; the rate is greater than in the US during the 2008 financial crisis. That does not bode well for the third-most indebted country in the world. Interest obligations ultimately consume nearly half of public revenues, which are already squeezed by an enormous payroll covering some 300,000 public employees, about 13 percent of the workforce.
Economic woes add to a growing list of grievances that have sent many Lebanese pouring on to the streets to demand change.
It is not all bad news; Lebanon repaid a $1.5 billion Eurobond this week, buying time to tackle the gigantic tasks of setting the country back on course. However, without a prime minister and politicians unable to agree on who will succeed Saad Hariri, there is hardly enough time until the next mandatory repayment in March 2020. In addition, protesters are unlikely to be assuaged by promises of reform from a political class they wish to remove from the corridors of power in favor of a more technocratic leadership.
Higher bond yields, increasingly illiquid markets, crippled banks, excessive borrowing, an unsustainable public-sector wage bill, corruption, gross wealth inequality and political paralysis are all conspiring to deliver Lebanon a day of reckoning. Half-measures or governing through a crisis with shoddy, ill conceived quick fixes will not work. The average Lebanese will need to trust the government again, meaning the current leadership will have to co-sign their own removal — a non-starter for a political elite not swayed by swelling protests. In addition, any meaningful reform will probably target the ballooning debt and deficit via more taxes on the banks and significant reductions in public sector jobs. This will inevitably pit civil servants, loath to lose precious incomes, and banks, loath to reduce profits, against a public that has run out of patience.
Lebanon’s options are not easy. No amount of populist rhetoric can deliver on much-needed objectives without encountering resistance from entrenched interests. The fact that the prime minister’s office is vacant is unhelpful, but there is a silver lining. Most Lebanese agree that a technocratic, competent, and non-partisan government is needed, not only to craft solutions and implement them, but also to restore trust and faith in public office. Any incoming prime minister must also subscribe to this ideal beyond lip-service, and actually establish the entities to address the crisis and give them the authority to do so. They must also be prepared to face stiff opposition to any plans to rationalize the public sector to cut the deficit. This means having feasible plans for greater privatization, with a special emphasis on leaving as few unemployed former civil servants as possible.
Ultimately, they will also need to address the elephant in the room that is runaway public debt, which will probably not go down well with the local banks. More taxation is one thing, but what is needed is a sustainable approach to servicing outstanding debt, which may require debt restructuring that will allow the government more time to achieve tax revenue goals and get the deficit under control. The latter will certainly reap the benefits of unlocking up to $11 billion in loans and grants pledged to Lebanon by international donors.
However, time is short. The longer it takes to find Hariri’s replacement, the more likely it is that Lebanon faces a worthless currency, runaway inflation and mass protests that would make the Greek debt crisis look like a cakewalk.
Hafed Al-Ghwell is a non-resident senior fellow with the Foreign Policy Institute at the John Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. He is also senior adviser at the international economic consultancy Maxwell Stamp and at the geopolitical risk advisory firm Oxford Analytica, a member of the Strategic Advisory Solutions International Group in Washington DC and a former adviser to the board of the World Bank Group. Twitter: @HafedAlGhwell

Enemies of Lebanon 1 of 3: The Monetary System
Elie Aoun/November 30/2019
The Lebanese government does not own the Lebanese Pound (or Lira). If it owned the currency, it would not borrow it and pay interest on it.
One main reason why the monetary system is an enemy because the Lebanese government abandoned its exclusive privilege to issue money and vested that privilege in the Bank of Lebanon (Decree 13513, Article 47). In other words, the government gave the Bank the right to issue money, loan that money back to the government, and then charge it interest – at a time when the government could have issued its own money without paying any interest.
The “Bank of Lebanon” was created pursuant to Lebanese Law Decree 13513 of August 1, 1963 (Code of Money and Credit). The Decree was signed by President Fouad Chehab and Prime Minister Rachid Karameh (who was also acting as a Finance Minister). The Lebanese Parliament did not vote on or approve the creation of the Bank.
Not only does the Bank charge interest on the Bank’s loans to the State, the Bank does not pay interest to the State on the State’s deposits in the Bank (Article 86).
Not only has the government abandoned to the Bank its exclusive authority to print money, the government has also exempted the Bank from all taxes, imposts and rates whatsoever, already enforced or likely to be enforced for the benefit of the State, municipal corporations or other organizations (Article 118).
WHO OWNS THE LEBANESE CURRENCY?
The name “Republic of Lebanon” is not printed on any of the Lebanese currency notes. What is printed is the name “Banque du Liban” (Bank of Lebanon). Some may ask, is not the Bank owned by the Lebanese government? The answer is no.
Firstly, Decree 13513 does not say that the Bank is a branch of the Lebanese government. Instead, the Decree’s Article 13 states that the Bank is a juridical person of public law (a legal entity similar to a corporation) vested with financial autonomy.
Secondly, the Decree is written in a manner that reflects a relationship between two independent entities (rather than the Bank being a branch of the government). For example, Article 74 requires of the government to provide a protection (military guard) for the Bank’s establishment free of charge. No such language would have been used in the Decree if the Bank is a branch of the government.
Thirdly, Article 113 dictates how net profits are shared between the Bank and the government – such as 50/50 basis on certain occasions and even 80/20 (80% to the Treasury; 20% to the Bank) under some other conditions. It is doubtful that this profit-sharing formula has been properly implemented. If the Bank is a part of the government, all the net profits would have been the government’s share, not divided with the Bank.
The questions are: If the Bank is a legal entity, who owns that entity? In what manner has its profits been used or distributed since 1963 until now? Would the government revoke Article 47 and restore its exclusive privilege to issue money without paying interest for it? Why opening a new bank requires applying for registration with the Central Bank (Article 135) and not with the Ministry of Finance?
Apparently, no politician would have the courage to discuss these issues.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 01/2019
Iraq’s protests hold threat of Shiite internecine showdown, key to Tehran’s control of Baghdad
DEBKAfile/November 30/2019
Adel Abdel-Mahdi’s resignation as Iraq’s prime minister on Saturday, Nov. 30, confirmed that Iraq’s 22 million Shiites (out of a 39 million population) are being torn apart by a potential internal Shiite war. More than 400 people were killed in three months of protest and 16,000 injured. At least 40 died on Friday, most from gunfire.
The protest against corruption and failure of government sweeping the Shiite south and parts of Baghdad is pitting opponents of Iranian influence against the Shiite militias loyal to Iran which defer to Al Qods chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani. By stepping down, the prime minister responded to the demand of Iraq’s top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who condemned the use of force against protesters and called for a new government.
DEBKAfile analyses the root- causes leading up to the current crisis.
1-The last Iran-Iraq war was fought 40 years ago when Saddam Hussein led Sunni rule in Iraq and the Shiites were an oppressed minority.
2-The current crisis finds Baghdad ruled by Shiite politicians. They command Shiite militias of quarter of a million officers and men, which are more powerful than Iraq’s national army and armed with more advanced weaponry.
3-However, the split allegiances of those militias are the cause of the unfolding internecine war, since, through them, Tehran calls the shots for the Baghdad government.
4-Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei entrusted Gen. Soleimani with the “Iraq file.” His task is to employ Iraqi militias to forcibly incorporate Iraq in Iran’s Shiite arc of influence, along with Syria and Lebanon. But the Al Qods chief missed a beat by being too focused on his task to notice the increasing restiveness of a population deprived of proper services and jobs under a failing economy and deep corruption. He first responded by transforming the loyal Badr Brigades militia into a political party, the Badr Organization, which took its place in parliament as one of the largest factions.
5-Officials of the Shiite-led government in Baghdad, meanwhile, instead of developing the war-torn country and its oil-based economy, busied themselves with promoting Iranian influence, while amassing personal wealth and positions of strength for themselves and their personal militias.
6-They took no interest in the quiet competition going forward between the Iraqi and Iranian clerical establishments for control of the world’s 150 million Shiite Muslims. The question of which is superior between Qom in Iran and Najaf and Karbala in Iraq has never been resolved. For now, Iraq’s Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali al-Sistani, aged 90 and 45-year old Moqtada Sadr hold the edge over their Iranian colleagues. And it is they who are most adamantly opposed to Iran’s dominant influence in Baghdad and the machinations of its agent Gen. Soleimani. The motives behind this power contest are therefore both national and religious.
7-The protest demonstrations started out in October under the slogan of “The Iraqi Intifada of 2019” marking them as an uprising against Iran’s dominant footprint in Baghdad as well as their other grievances.
On Saturday, after burning the Iranian consulate in Najaf, they celebrated the prime minister’s resignation, but went on to demand an end to Iran’s interference in Iraq’s internal affairs.
8-The protesters remained defiant amid a bloody crackdown. After the burning of the Najaf consulate, Gen. Soleimani made the huge mistake of ordering Iraqi Shiite militias led by Al Qods officers to suppress the street riots in Najaf and Nasiriya with live ammunition as well tear gas. More than 40 protesters were killed in 24 hours. The Iranian general was reported late on Saturday to be planning to go to the extreme of deploying loyal Iraqi militias to seize control of Najaf in order to silence Ayatollah Sistani.
9-The Iraqi protest movement’s battle with armed pro-Iranian gunmen is fast descending into a showdown that will determine not just who rules Baghdad but the fate of Iran’s influence in Iraq,

Iraqis Keep Up Anti-Regime Demos despite PM's Vow to Quit
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 30/2019
Iraqis kept up their anti-government protests in Baghdad and across the south on Saturday, unsatisfied with the prime minister's planned resignation and insisting "all corrupted people" must step down.
Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi announced on Friday he was planning to submit his resignation to parliament but the following day, protests were still ongoing in his birthplace of Nasiriyah, in Iraq's south. Demonstrations set tyres ablaze on three bridges spanning the Euphrates River as hundreds more converged in the main protest camp in the flashpoint city's centre, according to an AFP correspondent. Their renewed rallies came despite a bloody crackdown by security forces that left more than 40 protesters dead over the past two days in the city. The violence was unleashed after protesters stormed and burned the Iranian consulate in the shrine city of Najaf, accusing Iraq's neighbour of propping up the Baghdad government.
That city, too, saw security forces and armed men in civilian clothes try to snuff out rallies in the aftermath of the consulate torching, leaving more than 20 protesters dead, medics told AFP. Five of them were shot dead by men in civilian clothes who fired on young protesters approaching a revered religious tomb or political party headquarters. The city of Najaf was relatively calm on Saturday, according to AFP's correspondent, but protests there usually swell in the afternoon and evening. Iraq's second holy city Karbala was rocked by overnight clashes between young protesters and security forces trading fire bombs until the early hours of the morning.
And in Diwaniyah, thousands hit the streets early to demand "the downfall of the regime.""We'll keep up this movement. Abdel Mahdi's resignation is only the first step, and now all corrupt figures must be removed and judged," one protester told AFP. The grassroots movement is the largest Iraq has seen in decades and also the deadliest, with more than 420 people killed and 15,000 wounded in Baghdad and the Shiite-majority south, according to an AFP tally.
The rising deaths have sparked global criticism, with the United Nations saying the deaths "cannot be tolerated" and the French foreign ministry saying it "strongly condemns the excessive and disproportionate use of force against protesters".In a written statement on Friday Abdel Mahdi said he would submit a formal letter to parliament "requesting my resignation" in keeping with the wishes of the country's top cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani.The premier did not say give further details but parliament is due to meet on Sunday.

Iraqis Keep Up Anti-Regime Demos despite PM's Vow to Quit
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 30/2019
Iraqis kept up their anti-government protests in Baghdad and across the south on Saturday, unsatisfied with the prime minister's planned resignation and insisting "all corrupted people" must step down. Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi announced on Friday he was planning to submit his resignation to parliament but the following day, protests were still ongoing in his birthplace of Nasiriyah, in Iraq's south. Demonstrations set tyres ablaze on three bridges spanning the Euphrates River as hundreds more converged in the main protest camp in the flashpoint city's centre, according to an AFP correspondent. Their renewed rallies came despite a bloody crackdown by security forces that left more than 40 protesters dead over the past two days in the city. The violence was unleashed after protesters stormed and burned the Iranian consulate in the shrine city of Najaf, accusing Iraq's neighbour of propping up the Baghdad government. That city, too, saw security forces and armed men in civilian clothes try to snuff out rallies in the aftermath of the consulate torching, leaving more than 20 protesters dead, medics told AFP. Five of them were shot dead by men in civilian clothes who fired on young protesters approaching a revered religious tomb or political party headquarters. The city of Najaf was relatively calm on Saturday, according to AFP's correspondent, but protests there usually swell in the afternoon and evening. Iraq's second holy city Karbala was rocked by overnight clashes between young protesters and security forces trading fire bombs until the early hours of the morning. And in Diwaniyah, thousands hit the streets early to demand "the downfall of the regime.""We'll keep up this movement. Abdel Mahdi's resignation is only the first step, and now all corrupt figures must be removed and judged," one protester told AFP. The grassroots movement is the largest Iraq has seen in decades and also the deadliest, with more than 420 people killed and 15,000 wounded in Baghdad and the Shiite-majority south, according to an AFP tally. The rising deaths have sparked global criticism, with the United Nations saying the deaths "cannot be tolerated" and the French foreign ministry saying it "strongly condemns the excessive and disproportionate use of force against protesters".In a written statement on Friday Abdel Mahdi said he would submit a formal letter to parliament "requesting my resignation" in keeping with the wishes of the country's top cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani.The premier did not say give further details but parliament is due to meet on Sunday.

Iraqi cabinet approves PM's decision to quit as anti-government protests continue
The National/November 30/2019
But many are asking why Adel Abdul Mahdi wants to hand his resignation to parliament and not the president
Iraq's Cabinet on Saturday approved Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi's decision to step down following a call from the country's top Shiite cleric for parliament to consider changing the government.
Mr Abdul Mahdi called an extraordinary meeting of the Cabinet on Saturday morning to "discuss the resignation of His Excellency and the Government and submit it to the House of Representatives", a statement from the prime minister's office said. "The prime minister calls on the House of Representatives to find appropriate solutions at its next session, and called on members of the government to continue their work until the formation of the new government," it said. Mr Abdul Mahdi announced his intention to resign on Friday, saying he would submit a formal letter to parliament "requesting my resignation" in keeping with the wishes expressed by Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani in his Friday sermon. His decision did little to appease Iraqis who have staged anti-government protests since early October. Demonstrations continued in Baghdad and across the south on Saturday, with protesters insisting that "all corrupted people" must step down. In Nasiriyah, the prime minister's birthplace, demonstrators set tyres ablaze on three bridges spanning the Euphrates River as hundreds more converged in the main protest camp in the flashpoint city's centre.
Security and hospital officials said two protesters were killed and 15 wounded in the city of Najaf early on Saturday when security forces fired live rounds at them. In Baghdad, at least 11 protesters were wounded near the Ahrar Bridge when security forces fired live ammunition and tear gas to disperse them, the officials said. Parliament is scheduled to meet on Sunday but it is not clear when Mr Abdul Mahdi will present his resignation letter. Two of the largest groups in parliament have indicated they would heed Mr Al Sistani's suggestion to change the government. However, some Iraqis question why the prime minister said he was handing his resignation to parliament rather than the country’s president as would be the norm. Some questioned if Mr Abdul Mahdi was showing unwillingness to leave office by demanding that parliament take a vote on the matter to force him out.
As yet there has been no government roadmap for what will happen next.
The protests in Nasiriyah have continued despite a bloody crackdown by security forces that killed more than 40 people in the city since Thursday.
The violence was unleashed after protesters stormed and set fire to Iran's consulate in Najaf on Wednesday night, accusing Iraq's neighbour of propping up the Baghdad government. Security forces and armed men in civilian clothes tried to snuff out rallies in the aftermath of the consulate torching, leaving more than 20 protesters dead, medics said. An Iraqi boy wearing a makeshift mask flashes the victory gesture during clashes between anti-government protesters and security forces in the Iraqi capital Baghdad's Rasheed street near al-Ahrar bridge. AFP
Five of them were shot dead by men in civilian clothes who fired on young protesters approaching a revered religious tomb or political party headquarters.
The city Karbala was rocked by overnight clashes between young protesters and security forces trading firebombs until the early hours of Saturday.
And in Diwaniyah, thousands hit the streets early to demand "the downfall of the regime"."We'll keep up this movement. Mr Abdul Mahdi's resignation is only the first step, and now all corrupt figures must be removed and judged," one protester said. The grassroots movement is the largest Iraq has seen in decades and also the deadliest, with more than 420 people killed and 15,000 wounded in Baghdad and the Shiite-majority south. The rising deaths have sparked global criticism, with the United Nations mission in Iraq saying the deaths "cannot be tolerated" and the French foreign ministry saying it "strongly condemns the excessive and disproportionate use of force against protesters". The head of the UN mission in Iraq, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, had a meeting with Mr Abdul Mahdi on Saturday, the prime minister's office said.

Turkey-Libya maritime agreement draws Greek ire
News Agencies/November 30/2010
ANKARA: A memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between Turkey and Libya on Wednesday to demarcate maritime zones in the Eastern Mediterranean has sparked condemnation from Greece.
Athens sees the MoU as an attempt to block Greek and Cypriot energy drilling activities in the zone. Turkey and Greece, although allies under the NATO umbrella, have long been at loggerheads over Cyprus and especially about the maritime zones they both claim as their own.
Hailing the MoU as a victory, Ankara claims that the move aims to “protect Turkey’s rights deriving from international law,” while Athens considers it a violation of the sovereign rights of third countries and of the good neighborliness principle. On Friday, the Greek Foreign Ministry summoned Turkish Ambassador Burak Ozugergin. Ahmet Sozen, who chairs the department of international relations at the Eastern Mediterranean University in Nicosia, thinks Turkey is trying to get out of the isolation that it has been facing in the Eastern Mediterranean. “Israel, Egypt, Greece and the Greek Cypriots have been forging bilateral and trilateral agreements keeping Turkey out of the equation for some time. Now, with the MoU with Libya, Turkey has been retaliating to this strategy,” he told Arab News. Libya’s neighbor Egypt has been closely cooperating with Greece and Cyprus on energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean, including a possible establishment of a regional gas market. Egyptian relations with Turkey have been especially frosty since 2013. Cairo condemned the deal as “illegal.” The controversial move came just two weeks after the EU agreed on restrictive measures against Turkey in response to its drilling activities near the Cypriot coast in violation of the established maritime economic zone off the divided island. Mona Sukkarieh, a political risk consultant and cofounder of Middle East Strategic Perspectives, said little regard is given to the presence of a number of Greek islands — especially Crete, located between the coasts of Turkey and Libya — along the corridor between Libyan and Turkish shores. “This is not surprising because Turkey’s longstanding position is that islands’ capacity to generate maritime zones should be limited, compared with states with longer coastal fronts,” she told Arab News.
Turkey is among a handful of countries that did not ratify the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. According to Sukkarieh, Ankara opposed the move “specifically because it opposes provisions governing the regime of islands.”Last year, Wess Mitchell, US assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, sent a message to Ankara over the drilling activities for hydrocarbons underway in Cyprus’s exclusive economic zone. He said that “Turkey’s view is a minority of one versus the rest of the world.” Sukkarieh said: “The deal is significant for Turkey because Ankara was finally able to find a partner in the Eastern Mediterranean that shares its views on the demarcation of maritime areas. On paper, Turkey is no longer alone.”

Iranian general Qassem Soleimani visits Baghdad as Iraq PM resigns: Sources
Staff writer, Al Arabiya EnglishSaturday, 30 November 2019
Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - Quds Force, is currently present in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad, Al Arabiya sources confirmed. His visit on Saturday comes as Iraq’s cabinet approved Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi’s resignation, according to a statement from his office, but parliament has yet to withdraw its support for the prime minister at a session on Sunday, making it official. Soleimani was last in Baghdad earlier this month when sources said he met with commanders of the Popular Mobilization Unit militias and instructed them to support Abdul Mahdi during a secret meeting. At the time, an Iranian security official confirmed Soleimani was present at a meeting in Baghdad and that he was there to “advise.”The current unrest, which has killed more than 400 people, mostly demonstrators, amounts to the biggest crisis confronting Iraq since ISIS seized vast swathes of Iraqi and Syrian territory in 2014.

Iranian opposition leader compares Supreme Leader to toppled Shah
Reuters/Saturday, 30 November 2019
Iranian opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi has compared Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to the Shah, the monarch deposed in a 1979 revolution, following the government’s crackdown on protests this month.The unrest began on Nov. 15 after the government of the Islamic Republic, one of OPEC’s biggest oil producers, announced gasoline price hikes. But the protests quickly turned political, with demonstrators demanding the removal of top leaders. Khamenei has described the violence as the work of a “very dangerous conspiracy.” The Tehran government has blamed “thugs” linked to its opponents in exile and the country’s main foreign foes. Iran has given no official death toll, but Amnesty International has said that at least 161 people have been killed. Tehran has rejected this figure. Mousavi’s comments about Khamenei, the highest authority in the Islamic Republic, were posted in a statement on the opposition Kaleme website. He made a reference to an infamous 1978 massacre which rallied public support and led to the toppling of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. “The killers of the year 1978 were the representatives of a non-religious regime and the agents and shooters of November 2019 are the representatives of a religious government,” he said. “Then the commander in chief was the Shah and today, here, the Supreme Leader with absolute authority.” He called on the government to “pay attention to the repercussions of the Jaleh square killings” of 1978. A spokesman for the Tehran government could not be reached for comment on the remarks outside office hours. Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi ran in a presidential election in June 2009 but lost out to hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The two men became figureheads for Iranians who staged mass protests after the vote, which they said was rigged.Karroubi, Mousavi and Mousavi’s wife Zahra Rahnavard have been under house arrest in Tehran since 2011 after the opposition leaders called on supporters to rally in solidarity with pro-democracy uprisings in Arab countries.

Iran disputes ‘exaggerated’ protest death tolls
News Agencies/November 30/2010
TEHRAN: Iran on Saturday disputed death tolls issued abroad for bloodshed that erupted during protests in the country over fuel prices, after a rights group said over 160 demonstrators were killed. The demonstrations flared in mid-November, after the price of petrol in the Islamic republic went up overnight by as much as 200 percent. Officials in Iran have yet to say how many people died in the ensuing violence that saw banks, petrol pumps and police stations set on fire. London-based human rights group Amnesty International said in a tweet on Friday that the crackdown claimed the lives of 161 demonstrators. But Iran’s deputy interior minister, Jamal Orf, disputed such figures. “Statistics by international organizations on those killed in the recent incidents are not credible,” he was quoted as saying by state news agency IRNA. Orf accused the sources that reported the figures of “exaggerating” them. The prosecution service, he added, was set to announce the figures based on those it receives from the coroner’s office. Prior to its latest tweet, Amnesty International said on Monday that 143 demonstrators had been killed in the crackdown, citing what it called “credible reports.”The governments of the United States, France and Germany have condemned Iran over the bloodshed. The unrest broke out on November 15, hours after it was announced that the price of gas would rise to 15,000 rials per liter (12 US cents) from 10,000 for the first 60 liters, and to 30,000 rials for any extra fuel bought after that each month. Iran’s economy has been battered since last year, when President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from a 2015 nuclear agreement and reimposed crippling sanctions on the Islamic republic. The government in Tehran said proceeds from the fuel price hike would go to the most needy people in the country.
According to IRNA, the payments have since been made in three installations between November 18 and 23.

Macron, Erdogan in war of words ahead of NATO summit
Arab News/November 30/2019
ANKARA: Days before a NATO summit in London on Dec. 3-4, the Turkish and French presidents have engaged in a battle of words.
The exchange of criticism reflects the tension between the two NATO allies before the approaching meeting where they are expected to hold a four-way summit, along with German and British leaders, to discuss the fate of Syria.
With Turkey allegedly testing the Russian-made S-400 air defense system, and reportedly planning to block a NATO project to defend Poland and the Baltics, France has criticized Ankara, saying it cannot expect solidarity from allies over any offensive against Syrian Kurdish forces in Syria.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also recently accused his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron of being a “sponsor of terrorism” after France hosted Jihane Ahmed, the spokeswoman of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, considered by Turkey to be a terror group.
On Friday, Erdogan told Macron “you should check whether you are brain dead first” over the latter’s recent comments about NATO’s inability to prevent Turkey’s Syria incursion. Macron believe his remarks about NATO were a “wake-up call” and he refused to apologize.
Following harsh comments from the Turkish side, France summoned Turkey’s ambassador to Paris to protest over what it viewed as an “insult” rather than a “statement.” A French presidential adviser also criticized Turkey, claiming “Ankara cannot take the defense plans of Poland and the Baltic countries hostage.”According to a recent Reuters report, Ankara has one condition to back the NATO plan: Securing more political support from the alliance over its fight against Syrian Kurdish YPG militia in northern Syria.
French intellectuals also reacted harshly to Erdogan’s remarks about Macron.
“Macron ‘mentally ill’? Indeed, from the point of view of Erdogan, defending the Kurds, leaving its opponents at liberty, respect democracy, be faithful to its international commitments and humanitarian law, it’s pure madness,” French philosopher Bernard-Henri Levy tweeted.
On his side, Roger Karoutchi, a former French minister who now represents Les Republicans in the French senate, said: “For Erdogan, Macron is in a ‘brain dead state.’ The insult insults only the one who utters it. The Turkish ambassador in Paris is summoned, but we must remember our ambassador in Ankara and put a definitive end to the discussions about Turkey’s entry into the EU.”Bill Park, a visiting research fellow at King’s College London, said Macron is not alone in NATO in criticizing Turkey’s actions in Syria, and he did not attack Erdogan in person.
“His wider criticism of NATO was not aimed at Turkey, and has provoked a negative reaction from many of France’s NATO allies. Turkey’s reaction to Macron and the personalized ‘brain dead’ comment is way over the top,” he told Arab News, and added: “Ankara thinks it can extend its suppression of criticism at home to a suppression of criticism from abroad. It cannot. With its actions in Syria, in the eastern Mediterranean, in its agreement with Libya on maritime boundaries that threatens Greece, in its S-400 purchase and wider relationship with Russia, in its threats to weaponize refugees, its arrest of Germany’s lawyer, Turkey is losing and has lost sympathy in Europe.”For Park, the war of words will blow over, but the underlying European discomfort with Erdogan will not. Samim Akgonul, a Turkish political scientist and director of the Turkish studies department of Strasbourg University in France, said that among populist powers like France and Turkey, the “war of words” had become a tool to measure the reaction of the “other.”“Macron is willing to gauge France’s power on the decision-making process of NATO in a possible post-Trump era. That is why the Syrian conflict is a good pretext,” he told Arab News.
“On the other hand, insulting foreign leaders became a well-known characteristic of foreign policy making of the Turkish president. Other leaders know it and they react accordingly, with disinterest or soft reaction. That is the case for the recent insult, too, where Erdogan insinuated that Macron was young, experienced, naive and brainless,” he added. To what extent this latest escalation between the two leaders translates into the Syria- focused discussions between Ankara and Paris remains to be seen. Akgonul said: “NATO members, including France, are witnessing their incapacity to be taken under consideration in the Syrian front by three actors, namely the US, Russia and Turkey, simply because they are paralyzed by Turkey’s threats relating to refugees but also to foreign fighters with European citizenship.” Turkey will soon deport another 11 French citizens suspected of Daesh links. Akgonul believes that during London summit, Ankara’s threats and cynicism will again prevail, and continental Europe will again lower its head. “Otherwise, Macron will again hear similar insults and threats and will be obliged to swallow them,” he said.

Hundreds march in Sudan capital seeking justice for those killed in protests
AFP/Saturday, 30 November 2019
Hundreds of protesters marched Saturday through downtown Khartoum to demand justice for those killed in demonstrations against Sudan’s now-ousted leader Omar al-Bashir. More than 250 people were killed and hundreds injured in the months-long protests that erupted in December 2018, according to umbrella protest movement Forces of Freedom and Change. Bashir, who ruled Sudan with an iron fist for 30 years, was deposed by the army in a palace coup on April 11 after the demonstrations triggered by an acute economic crisis. A crowd of men and women marched from a central Khartoum square to Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok’s offices, demanding authorities deliver justice for those killed and also find out about protesters who went missing. “Blood for blood!” chanted protesters gathered in front of Hamdok’s offices in the capital, an AFP correspondent reported.
Dozens of policemen stood guard as protesters, many whistling, clapping and ululating, belted out revolutionary slogans. “We want justice for martyrs. We are afraid that the criminals might not be judged,” said protester Nizar bin Sufian. He said protesters welcomed Thursday’s decision by the new authorities to dismantle Bashir’s regime and former ruling party. “But we have not seen any moves by the government to find those missing or to begin trials of those responsible for the killing of protesters,” bin Sufian told AFP. Bashir and several senior members of his regime are in prison, while the veteran leader himself is on trial for alleged graft. Since August, Sudan has been ruled by a joint civilian-military sovereign council headed by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. A transitional cabinet led by Hamdok has been tasked with the day-to-day running of the country. The sovereign council is tasked with overseeing an overall transition to civilian rule as demanded by the protest movement.

Israeli army kills Palestinian in West Bank
AFP/Sunday, 1 December 2019
Israeli soldiers shot dead a Palestinian in clashes near the West Bank village of Beit Awwa southwest of Hebron on Saturday, the Palestinian health ministry said. Israel’s military said the man had been throwing petrol bombs. An army spokesman said soldiers on an “anti-terrorist operation” near the village saw three Palestinians throwing petrol bombs at a military vehicle and opened fire, hitting one. Two others were arrested for interrogation. The Palestinian health ministry named the dead youth as 18-year-old Badawee Masalma. Israeli forces carry out frequent raids and arrests in the occupied West Bank, which often lead to clashes. More than 600,000 Israelis live in settlements in the territory and East Jerusalem, which Palestinians see as the capital of their future state. The settlements are in violation of international law, according to multiple UN Security Council Resolutions.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 01/2019
Turkey: Reliving the Glory/Gory Days of Jihad
Raymond Ibrahim/FrontPage Magazine/November 30/2019
Turkey’s little remarked on but ongoing mistreatment of historic churches is increasingly reflective of that nation’s growing sense of Islamic supremacism.
Before the Turks invaded it, Anatolia (present day Turkey) was an ancient Christian region; a large chunk of St. Paul’s epistles were sent to or dealt with its churches, including the seven of the Apocalypse. With the Turks’ conquest, colonization, and subsequent Turkification of Anatolia—hence why it’s now simply called “Turkey”—tens of thousands of churches were systematically desecrated and turned into victory mosques.
Under Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s (d. 1938) secularization program, some of the most historic and significant of these churches-turned-mosques were transformed into neutral museums. Today, however, they are again under assault, again being transformed into Islamic victory mosques.
Most recently, on November 5, the government announced that a fifteen-hundred-year-old church, dedicated to the Holy Savior, is to be transformed into a mosque again, though it had been a museum since 1945. This means that, although it is considered “one of the most splendid examples of Byzantine art, and still preserves mosaics and frescoes,” these will all be destroyed in the cleansing process to make it a mosque.
The Holy Savior is hardly the first church/museum to be transformed into a mosque in recent years. This ongoing phenomenon is a not so veiled threat for the ultimate and much anticipated transformation—that of the Hagia Sophia, Eastern Christendom’s greatest basilica located in Constantinople (modern Istanbul). Although it too has been a museum since the mid-1930s; although it holds an especial place for millions of Eastern Orthodox Christians; and although there are more than 3,000 active mosques in Istanbul alone—more than 97 percent of Turks surveyed in 2013 said they want to see Hagia Sophia turned into a mosque.
Why so many Turks are clamoring for this transformation—that is, to manifest their Islamic sense of supremacism over Christianity (and, ergo, over the West, as their thinking goes)—is apparent in all segments of society, top to bottom. Consider President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who earlier this year made clear that he too means to see Hagia Sophia transformed into a mosque. After reporting that “Turkey’s president has recited an Islamic prayer in the Hagia Sophia, a historic Istanbul landmark that has become a symbol of interfaith and diplomatic tensions,” AP added that Erdoğan also dedicated his prayer to the “souls of all who left us this work as inheritance, especially Istanbul’s conqueror [Sultan Mehmet II].”
Salih Turhan, head of the Anatolian Youth Association, which annually demonstrates around Hagia Sophia, also explained : “As the grandchildren of Mehmet the Conqueror, seeking the re-opening Hagia Sophia as a mosque is our legitimate right.”
In other words, the desire to transform Hagia Sophia into an active mosque is not due to piety or a dearth of mosques, but rather about reveling in the glory—that is, gory—days of jihad, and honor its practitioners.
In what follows, we revisit exactly what Mehmet II, the Conqueror, did to and in Hagia Sophia to prompt so many modern Turks, including their president, to honor him, including by calling for the building’s transformation into a mosque. (All quotes in the following narrative are from primary sources, mostly eyewitnesses, and are documented in Sword and Scimitar: Fourteen Centuries of War between Islam and the West).
After Constantinople had parried centuries of jihadi thrusts, Mehmet—that is, Muhammad (Mehmet is how Turks pronounce the Arabian prophet’s name)—sacked Constantinople on May 29, 1453. Once inside the city, “The enraged Turkish soldiers . . . gave no quarter,” wrote an eyewitness:
When they had massacred and there was no longer any resistance, they were intent on pillage and roamed through the town stealing, disrobing, pillaging, killing, raping, taking captive men, women, children, old men, young men, monks, priests, people of all sorts and conditions… There were virgins who awoke from troubled sleep to find those brigands standing over them with bloody hands and faces full of abject fury… [The Turks] dragged them, tore them, forced them, dishonored them, raped them at the cross-roads and made them submit to the most terrible outrages… Tender children were brutally snatched from their mothers’ breasts and girls were pitilessly given up to strange and horrible unions, and a thousand other terrible things happened. . .
Because thousands of citizens had fled to and were holed up in Hagia Sophia, it offered an excellent harvest of slaves—once its doors were axed down. “One Turk would look for the captive who seemed the wealthiest, a second would prefer a pretty face among the nuns. . . . Each rapacious Turk was eager to lead his captive to a safe place, and then return to secure a second and a third prize. . . . Then long chains of captives could be seen leaving the church and its shrines, being herded along like cattle or flocks of sheep.”
The slavers sometimes fought each other to the death over “any well-formed girl,” even as many of the latter “preferred to cast themselves into the wells and drown rather than fall into the hands of the Turks.”
Having taken possession of one of Christendom’s greatest and oldest basilicas—nearly a thousand years old at the time of its capture—the invaders “engaged in every kind of vileness within it, making of it a public brothel.” On “its holy altars” they enacted “perversions with our women, virgins, and children,” including “the Grand Duke’s daughter who was quite beautiful.” She was forced to “lie on the great altar of Hagia Sophia with a crucifix under her head and then raped.”
Next “they paraded the [Hagia Sophia’s main] Crucifix in mocking procession through their camp, beating drums before it, crucifying the Christ again with spitting and blasphemies and curses. They placed a Turkish cap . . . upon His head, and jeeringly cried, ‘Behold the god of the Christians!’”
Many other churches in the ancient city suffered the same fate. “The crosses which had been placed on the roofs or the walls of churches were torn down and trampled.” The Eucharist was hurled to the ground; holy icons were stripped of gold, “thrown to the ground and kicked.” Bibles were stripped of their gold or silver illuminations before being burned. “Icons were without exception given to the flames.” Patriarchal vestments were placed on the haunches of dogs; priestly garments were placed on horses.
“Everywhere there was misfortune, everyone was touched by pain” when Sultan Mehmet finally made his grand entry into the city. “There were lamentations and weeping in every house, screaming in the crossroads, and sorrow in all churches; the groaning of grown men and the shrieking of women accompanied looting, enslavement, separation, and rape.”
The sultan rode to Hagia Sophia, dismounted, and went in, “marveling at the sight” of the grand basilica. After having it cleansed of its crosses, statues, and icons—the sultan himself knocked over and trampled on its altar—Mehmet ordered a muezzin to ascend the pulpit and sound “their detestable prayers. Then this son of iniquity [Mehmet], this forerunner of Antichrist, mounted upon the Holy Table to utter forth his own prayers,” thereby “turning the Great Church into a heathen shrine for his god and his Mahomet.”
This, then, is what Turkey’s Muslims and president are proud of: the violent conquest of ancient Christian territory, and the atrocity-laden transformation of its greatest cathedral into a mosque; this is what they are eager to honor by turning Hagia Sophia into a mosque again. For make no mistake: if the average Westerner is clueless concerning the aforementioned history, every Turk is taught it in youth.
Openly idolizing Mehmet and trying to do what he did—transform Hagia Sophia into a mosque to honor the “souls of all who left us this work as inheritance, especially Istanbul’s conqueror,” as Erdoğan proclaimed—is tantamount to Turks’ saying, “We are proud of [and seek to emulate?] our ancestors who slaughtered, enslaved, and raped people and stole their lands simply because they were Christian infidels.”
*Note: For a comprehensive account of the siege and subsequent rapine of Constantinople, see Chapter 7 of author’s Sword and Scimitar.

China Adopts Malicious "Cybersecurity" Rules
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/November 30/2019
After all these "cybersecurity" rules are in place, no foreign company may encrypt data so that it cannot be read by the Chinese central government and the Communist Party of China. In other words, businesses will be required to turn over encryption keys.
Chinese officials will be permitted, under Chinese law, to share seized information with state enterprises. This means the enterprises will be able to use that information against their foreign competitors.
The American people have an interest in China not taking control of American companies with operations in China--a probable consequence of the application of the December 1 and January 1 measures.
The American people have a vital interest in the protection of American data. Trump should issue such an order immediately.
On January 1, China's Cryptography Law becomes effective. The legislation follows the December 1 implementation of the Multi-Level Protection Scheme 2.0, issued under the authority of the 2016 Cybersecurity Law.
Together, these measures show Beijing's absolute determination to seize from foreign companies all their communications, data, and other information stored in electronic form in China.
Beijing's complete visibility into the networks of foreign companies will have extremely disadvantageous consequences. (Photo: Wikimedia Commons.)
President Trump should use his emergency powers to prohibit American companies from complying with the new rules or from storing data in China.
After all these "cybersecurity" rules are in place, no foreign company may encrypt data so that it cannot be read by the Chinese central government and the Communist Party of China. In other words, businesses will be required to turn over encryption keys.
Companies will also be prohibited from employing virtual private networks to keep data secret, and some believe they will no longer be allowed to use private servers.
Beijing's system, once implemented, will be so invasive that Chinese authorities will no longer need to ask foreign businesses to turn over data. Chinese officials will simply be able to take that data on their own.
"Once data crosses the Chinese border on a network," writes Steve Dickinson in the China Law Blog, "100 percent of that data will be 100 percent available to the Chinese government and the CCP."
Beijing's complete visibility into the networks of foreign companies will have extremely disadvantageous consequences, Dickinson notes. First, Chinese officials will be permitted, under Chinese law, to share seized information with state enterprises. This means the enterprises will be able to use that information against their foreign competitors.
Second, China's new rules will almost certainly result in foreign companies losing trade secret protection around the world. A trade secret loses its status as such when it is widely disclosed. Once a company allows such a secret to be carried on its Chinese network, the company has to assume Beijing will know it. "Since no company can reasonably assume its trade secrets will remain secret once transmitted into China over a Chinese controlled network, they are at great risk of having their trade secret protections outside China evaporating as well," writes Dickinson.
Third, China's cybersecurity program exposes companies to penalties for violating U.S. tech-export legislation. Businesses have assumed that technology covered by U.S. export prohibitions is not "exported" if it is kept on a Chinese network protected by end-to-end encryption, in other words, not available to Chinese authorities. Because companies will no longer be permitted to encrypt data end-to-end, they will almost certainly be considered as violating U.S. rules for tech stored on a network in China.
Not every analyst is alarmed by China's December 1 measures. James Andrew Lewis, for instance, maintains that Beijing's new rules are a "legitimate effort" to secure networks in China. Moreover, he argues the Chinese do not need the new MLPS 2.0 rules to grab information because they can just steal all they want with their advanced "APT" hacker groups. "Their intent is not to use it for malicious purposes," Lewis argues, referring to Chinese officials.
It is not clear how Lewis, a tech expert at the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, can know the intent of China's officials. Furthermore, portraying that intent as benign seems naive—laughable even—while their country is stealing hundreds of billions of dollars of American intellectual property each year and while Chinese ruler Xi Jinping continues his determined attacks on foreign business. In these circumstances, we have to assume Chinese officials are acting with malign intent.
Lewis also downplays the basic point that China's cyber spies, once they have the encryption keys and access to the China network of a foreign firm, will be in a better position to penetrate the networks of that firm outside China. Therefore, it will only be a matter of time before Beijing steals data and puts companies out of business or ruins them to the point where Chinese entities can swoop in and buy them up cheap. Many allege that China stole data from Canada's Nortel Networks and thereby bankrupted it almost a decade ago. The company was, according to the Financial Post, "hacked to pieces."
Finally, CSIS's Lewis fails to recognize that Beijing's December 1 rules generally legitimize China's regulation and information-custody role--in other words, China's theft.
Senator Josh Hawley is rightly more suspicious of Beijing's intentions. In November, the Missouri Republican introduced a bill, the National Security and Data Protection Act of 2019, prohibiting American companies from storing user data or encryption keys in China. Of course, this bill faces opposition from tech companies doing business in that country.
Yet, there is someone who can, with the stroke of a pen, effectively implement Hawley's bill. President Donald John Trump can use his broad powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to prohibit companies from complying with the pernicious new rules or from storing data in China. The rationale for such a sweeping presidential order is that the American people have an interest in China not taking control of American companies with operations in China--a probable consequence of the application of the December 1 and January 1 measures.
Such an emergency order would effectively force American companies out of China, so this step would be drastic. Yet it is China, with its incredibly ambitious grab of data, that is forcing the issue.
The American people have a vital interest in the protection of American data. Trump should issue such an order immediately.
Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China and a Gatestone Institute Distinguished Senior Fellow. Follow him on Twitter @GordonGChang.
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London terror attack: inadequacies in system proved fatal
National Editorial//November 30/2019
Releasing terrorist Usman Khan into the community early showed gaps in joined-up thinking
Usman Khan was known to police when he stabbed and killed two people on London Bridge in broad daylight on Friday. Khan had been convicted in February 2012 as part of a terrorist cell that had plotted to blow up the London Stock Exchange and the American embassy, among other targets. Three members of the nine-man cell from Stoke-on-Trent in the UK Midlands, inspired by Al Qaeda, were initially supposed to be held in prison indefinitely because of the threat they posed to the public. A year after the sentencing, however, the Court of Appeal relented and gave its three masterminds – including Khan – fixed-term sentences instead. Presiding appeal judge Lord Justice Leveson said at the time: “Terrorism comes in many different forms. This offence [of preparing for acts of terrorism] is particularly wide, covering acts just short of an attempt to conduct that only just crosses the line into criminality.”
On Friday, that deeply troubling decision proved to be fatal. Khan, who was released in December last year after serving exactly half of his 16-year sentence – as the applicable law states – launched a frenzied attack, armed with two knives, killing a man and a woman and injuring at least three others before he was shot dead by police officers.
As London once again contemplates the tragic aftermath of a fatal terrorist attack, questions are rightly being asked about whether there are sufficient measures in place to protect the public. Had the original sentence stood, Khan and his cohort Nazam Hussain, described by the judge as “the more serious jihadists”, would most likely still be behind bars. The new UK Counter-Terrorism and Border Security Act, which came into effect in April this year, gave tougher sentencing powers of up to 15 years for lesser crimes such as collecting or disseminating terrorist material. It also offered judges the opportunity to give indeterminate sentences for crimes such as belonging to a proscribed group, rather than having to wait until suspects had committed violent or terrorist acts before issuing such tough penalties.
Last year more than 80 convicted terrorists were due for automatic release because they had come to the end of their sentences
At the time of the appeal hearing, the criminal landscape in Britain was markedly different. Khalid Masood had yet to drive a rental van at pedestrians on London’s Westminster Bridge in 2017, killing five people. And a terrorist gang had not yet prowled London Bridge and nearby Borough Market, killing eight people and injuring 48. Nor had 23 people – many of them children – died in a suicide bombing at an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester Arena. These fatal incidents had yet to happen when Khan’s sentence was downgraded, but they had already taken place before he was released. The Parole Board said he was released automatically on licence after reaching the midway point in his sentence. It suggests a woefully inadequate system that is still missing essential joined-up thinking that could save lives.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said it is a “mistake to allow serious and violent criminals to come out of prison early”. The Guardian newspaper last year found more than 80 convicted terrorists were due for automatic release because they had come to the end of their sentences, including extremist preacher Anjem Choudary, a close friend of Khan. The threat comes not just from Islamists like Khan but also right-wing extremists; there is extensive evidence of both being radicalised behind bars. Greater provision must be made to monitor such recruitment by extremists in prison and to properly assess convicts before they are released to ensure they will not reoffend. Probation workers have complained they are overstretched. They must receive proper support and training in recognising those who could be a danger if released as it could mean the difference between life and death for potential victims.
London has proven resilient in bouncing back from such attacks and it will undoubtedly do so again. But it should not take yet more fatalities to serve as a reminder of the need for greater vigilance and care in protecting the public. There are currently more than 220 people being held on terrorism-related offences in Britain. It only takes one lone wolf to cause devastation, as Khan proved on Friday. A counter-narrative to his message of hate must be projected loudly before the ideology that he was indoctrinated with strikes again.

Why Erdogan’s belligerence is out of control
Dr. Theodore Karasik/Arab News/November 30/2019
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s behavior is rapidly spinning out of control. His belligerence is creating waves in and around the Mediterranean, dividing Europe and America, and presenting challenges to the West over how to respond.
Emboldened by his military adventures in northern Syria and subservient to Russia’s will, Erdogan is creating heightened tensions at a time when, in French President Emmanuel Macron’s phrase, there are questions about who in NATO is “brain dead” and who is not.
France is looking at events in Syria, and indeed the whole region, from its own strategic viewpoint. Erdogan’s push in several directions is visually problematic, and is upsetting processes in the region to tone down tensions. Instead of being a willing and active participant and sticking to the script, if you will, Erdogan is reaching out in all directions, staking claims. For the West, and the US in particular, the challenge that Erdogan now presents is not only about removing nuclear missiles from Turkey, but questioning the very purpose of Turkey’s NATO membership. This will not end well; Moscow knows that, and is biding its time.
“Brain-dead” NATO began in Ankara with Erdogan’s provocative test of the Russian-made S-400 missile defense system against US-made F-16 fighter jets, in defiance of US requests. A spokesman for Erdogan promised that Turkey would not integrate the S-400 missiles into the NATO security or air defense systems, and instead operate it as a stand-alone platform. But Turkey has broken such promises before; it views the security relationship with the US as a transactional one. The back-and-forth over Ankara’s judicial actions in the US to extradite Gulenists, and now the F-35 program, exposes how such behavior is a key factor in Erdogan’s projection of Turkish power.
Emboldened by his military adventures in northern Syria and subservient to Russia’s will, Erdogan is creating heightened tensions at a time when, in French President Emmanuel Macron’s phrase, there are questions about who in NATO is “brain dead” and who is not.
It seems a long time since US President Donald Trump described as “wonderful” his meeting with Erdogan in November at the White House; even longer since Trump threatened to destroy the Turkish economy and imposed sanctions on Ankara. Moscow was elated by the latter, because the more Trump turned against Ankara, the closer Erdogan shifted toward Russian President Vladimir Putin. The US is also extremely tardy in triggering automatic sanctions, which again benefits Moscow because the lack of US resolve to act on a critical foreign policy security issue involving the sale of advanced Russian weaponry is viewed as weak, particularly with a selective CAATSA, the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act. This policy gap, which Turkey and others are taking advantage of, needs to be sorted out immediately.
Further trauma to the region is caused by Erdogan’s sudden burst of activity to shore up some fronts while expanding in others, including two new agreements with Tripoli on security and military cooperation, and marine jurisdictions. The latter agreement confirms that Turkey and Libya are now maritime neighbors. The delimitation starts from Turkey’s southwestern coast of Fethiye-Marmaris-Kaş and extends to the Derna-Tobruk-Bordia coastline of Libya. In addition, the maritime delimitation agreement also recognizes Turkey’s rights in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) extending into the southeast of the island of Crete, thwarting any illegal attempts to confine the country’s EEZ in the Mediterranean into an area of 41,000 square meters.
This area, which had a potential to be a potential flash point, has just been doused in gas. The agreement also pushes other regional states such as Israel, Egypt, the Greek Cypriot administration, Greece and the EU countries to negotiate with Turkey over any pipeline project to carry Eastern Mediterranean natural gas to European markets. Ankara sees, for example, that when in March 2019, Israel, Greece and the Greek Cypriot government signed a deal in Tel Aviv on the proposed EastMed pipeline with the participation of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, that this project would be running through what are now considered Turkish waters. It is estimated that the $7 billion project will take several years to complete and deliver 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year, but Erdogan’s bold move challenges the Mediterranean littoral states as never before.
The question now is how the US will respond. It seems inevitable that nuclear weapons will be next on the agenda. At issue is the deployment of nuclear weapons throughout Europe, including Turkey. The 50 in Turkey may be out of date in terms of their positioning, with Turkey’s current direction highly disconcerting to European and Arab partners. Erdogan outplayed Trump on Syria, and is now discussing more arms purchases from Russia; clearly Ankara needs to think more clearly about its NATO membership, or it may be shown the door.
*Dr. Theodore Karasik is a senior adviser to Gulf State Analytics in Washington, D.C. He is a former RAND Corporation senior political scientist who lived in the UAE for 10 years, focusing on security issues. Twitter: @tkarasik

New EU leaders, same old problems
Cornelia Meyer /Arab News/November 30/2019
Ursula von der Leyen formally becomes President of the European Commission on Sunday, after a month’s delay and a path to the post that was far from straightforward. She gave an impassioned speech last week in English, German and French, in which she envisioned Europe becoming the first continent with net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, achieved with a new “Green Deal.”
Her predecessor shared her climate vision, but Jean-Claude Juncker failed to implement it in the face of opposition from East European countries such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, which are reluctant to give up their coal. Von der Leyen’s climate plans include a fund for fair energy transition, opposed by several net contributors to the EU budget.
She will, though, have the support of the Left and the Greens, who persuaded the parliament to declare a climate emergency just in time for the 25th UN climate change conference in Madrid this week. She also has support from the new governor of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, who has declared climate change one of her top priorities.
Other agenda points are migration, on which member governments again have opposing views. Even those with sympathy for more relaxed immigration policies continuously need to look over their shoulders at far-right opposition parties such as Germany’s AfD or France’s Front National.
There are also the woes of a slowing global economy hamstrung by trade wars. Germany only just avoided a technical recession in the third quarter, and the debt burden of Italy and France — which breaks ECB guidelines — is bound to be an issue at some point.
Ursula von der Leyen formally becomes President of the European Commission on Sunday, after a month’s delay and a path to the post that was far from straightforward.
Von der Leyen’s second big priority is digitization, and how to finance the roll-out of 5G connectivity. This is a particular dilemma for Germany — the posterchild of a successful industrialized economy, but globally only 38th for digital connectivity.
Another question is whether the EU should expand further, and, if so, how quickly; Macron recently put a spanner in the works of a quick accession for North Macedonia and Albania.
Juncker once said his job was the most difficult in the world, and he was already an EU insider (his successor is not) who did not have to contend with the fractured parliament facing von der Leyen; he had his detractors, but Juncker was an extraordinarily skilful operator on the European and international stages.
Outgoing European Council President Donald Tusk said in his valedictory speech on Friday that his five-year tenure had been dominated by crisis management: First Greece, then Ukraine, then migration, and finally the nightmare of Brexit. The future may not be much different for his successor, the former Belgian prime minister Charles Michel. The Juncker-Tusk duo was extraordinarily effective, and von der Leyen and Michel have big shoes to fill.
The EU’s problems have become neither fewer in number nor less urgent in nature. The deep divisions in the parliament further limit the leadership’s room for maneuver. The most difficult job in the world may just have become even more difficult.
*Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert. Twitter: @MeyerResources

Internal rifts behind NATO’s anniversary unity
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/November 30/2019
Western leaders are preparing for NATO’s 70th anniversary summit in London this week, at which new perceived threats such as China will be discussed for the first time. While the mood should be one of celebration for the anniversary, the alliance is on the back foot amid internal squabbles, notably French President Emmanuel Macron’s assertion that it is “brain dead.”
Macron’s remarkable outburst was prompted by what he sees as the diminished commitment to NATO by the US under the Trump presidency. Looking ahead, however, Macron is aware of wider shifts in the global security environment, including threats and opportunities from China. What is perceived as Beijing’s growing global assertiveness — including its missile systems — is a particular concern in Washington.
Macron’s comments about NATO were also slapped down by European leaders such as Angela Merkel, creating a troubled context for the summit. Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg’s goal this week will therefore be to “steady the ship,” his role for much of this year. In April, for instance, he sought to consolidate bipartisan Washington support for the alliance, after stinging criticism from Donald Trump. Stoltenberg was buoyed by several standing ovations during his joint address to Congress, but his prime audience was Trump, who has since been relatively quiet about NATO.
Nevertheless, few have forgotten the extraordinary scenes at the alliance’s 2018 annual summit, when Trump not only threatened to pull the US out, but then went on to have a cordial meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki.
Stoltenberg will seek this week to underline the continuing relevance of the Western alliance of countries with a collective population of about 1 billion. For all its weaknesses, NATO remains one of the world’s most successful military organizations, and has underpinned the longest period of sustained peace in the West’s modern history.
While the mood should be one of celebration for the NATO anniversary, the alliance is on the back foot amid internal squabbles, notably French President Emmanuel Macron’s assertion that it is “brain dead.”
One of his messages is that the alliance is still needed as a bulwark to Russia. After Moscow’s annexation of Crimea, and the wider destabilization of Ukraine, NATO’s relationship with Moscow remains at one of its lowest points since the end of the Cold War.
Alarm also remains in certain quarters about the West’s ability to respond to what is perceived as a significantly enhanced Russian security threat. Moscow is estimated to have increased defense spending by about 80 percent between 2008 and 2014, while the NATO countries collectively reduced theirs by about 20 percent, although there have been five years of increases since then. In 2019, for instance, spending across European allies and Canada increased in real terms by 4.6 percent.
But this burden-sharing issue remains Trump’s chief gripe about the alliance and a sore spot for the US, which accounts for about two thirds of NATO spending. At last year’s summit, the US president claimed a political victory on the issue; however, while alliance members agreed to reach spending of 2 percent of GDP on the military more quickly than previously planned, the reality is that this would have happened anyway. It is driven more by a combination of Russian military assertiveness and instability in the Middle East and Africa, less by Trump's apparently uncertain commitment to Europe’s security.
This should bring solidarity to the summit after Macron and Trump’s disruptive diplomacy. Nevertheless, Stoltenberg is well aware that, behind the show of unity lie significant and growing concerns about whether the alliance is fit for purpose as it moves into its eighth decade.
*Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics

Netanyahu is dividing Israel to save his own skin
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/November 30/2019
Every further moment that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clings to power by the skin of his teeth and rails against the justice system, without let-up and without compunction, he inexcusably deepens the ruptures in Israeli society. His indictment for bribery, fraud and breach of trust makes grim reading, made worse by his despicable and baseless attacks on the police and the general prosecution, portraying himself as the victim of an “attempted coup.”
Netanyahu may be protesting his innocence with pathos and self-belief, but after four years of police investigation he should be doing so in front of a judge, rather than abusing his power and attempting to undermine the justice system. If he retained the slightest shred of concern for his country and its people, he would have quit public life when Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit first announced the corruption charges.
I have never believed that Netanyahu entered politics to enrich himself, or even solely as a vanity project, but these have become the driving force behind much of his desire to stay in power, in addition to avoiding spending time behind bars. The saga as it unfolds resembles a Greek tragedy in which the personal failures of the hero lead to his inevitable downfall. If, instead of embarking on a catalogue of vile and venomous attacks on his investigators, the general prosecution, the Left and the media, he had looked in the mirror, he would have seen the reflection of someone who has been in power for far too long and as a result has been contaminated with greed, arrogance, and an obsession with every word spoken and written about him and his family.
The long read of Netanyahu’s indictment exposes someone who, even at the height of his power when he faced no serious challenge to his leadership, was already expending considerable time and energy plotting with media moguls to ensure favorable coverage. Every page of the detailed and well reasoned indictment reveals someone who has become, and perhaps deep down has always been, a narcissist; someone who, beyond the self-belief that any leader must possess, nurtures a deep sense of entitlement and disregard for the rules that govern the rest of society.
This narcissism also led him to embark on vicious attacks on his critics and those entrusted with the safeguarding of law and order. Like all narcissists, he has also ended up believing in his own narratives and, worse, his own lies. It is not that he denies that he — and his wife, who has already been convicted of misusing thousands of dollars in public funds — enjoyed expensive presents, about $200,000 worth, mainly in the form of cigars and champagne from wealthy businessmen with strong vested interests in Israel’s media. He would like us to believe that these were innocent gifts from friends
The long read of Netanyahu’s indictment exposes someone who, even at the height of his power when he faced no serious challenge to his leadership, was already expending considerable time and energy plotting with media moguls to ensure favorable coverage.
But how many of us are naive enough to believe that there was not at least an immoral link, or at least expectations, between his acceptance of those gifts and his ministerial role in adjusting government regulations to benefit those who were so generous to him and his wife? Is he simply lying? Or does he believe that he was entitled to such perks because of his service as a prime minister with a relatively modest salary, compared with the wealth of his benefactors, and that this somehow justifies such corrupt behavior? Whether he is detached from reality, corrupt, or both, it makes him unfit to govern.
But this is just the tip of the iceberg of the charges against him. Netanyahu is also accused of blatantly abusing his ministerial power by giving regulatory benefits worth hundreds of millions of Israeli shekels to Israel’s most powerful media moguls in exchange for favorable coverage by their outlets. That he recorded some of the conversations he held with them on this matter is further evidence of his paranoid state of mind regarding his relationship with the media.
With this indictment, one chapter of the Netanyahu corruption chronicles has closed, and now the charges are to be dealt with by the judges, the only people entrusted with ensuring that he will be treated fairly and according to the law. Nevertheless, the prime minister’s venomous reaction against law enforcers is unforgivable, and should itself be the subject of criminal investigation, as would such behavior by any ordinary citizen. In a lengthy and horrifying speech immediately after his indictment, Netanyahu revealed his dark and sinister inner world, portraying himself as the victim of the system, persecuted by the “deep state” and his political rivals, and calling for a move to “investigate the investigators,” with not a word of remorse or of self-reflection, or a shred of acceptance that at the very least he has made some bad calls and demonstrated a serious lack of judgment.
But nothing; he has expressed zero regret, let alone repentance. Instead he has embarked on something that might be considered even worse. He is urging his supporters to take to the streets with placards reminiscent of those once displayed in demonstrations he played a key part in, and which created the atmosphere that led to the assassination of former prime minister Yitzhak Rabin. If, heaven forbid, anything similar should happen to anyone from the police or the legal team who dealt with his case, the responsibility would fall directly on Netanyahu’s shoulders.
The man who likes to portray himself as the defender of Israel is now the one ready to sow the seeds of civil war in order to avoid his corruption trial. To prevent him from doing so, his opponents, as well as his supporters, must unite.
*Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations at Regent’s University London, where he is head of the International Relations and Social Sciences Program. He is also an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media. Twitter: @YMekelberg