LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
August 31/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
‘Every kingdom divided against itself becomes a desert, and house
falls on house/Whoever is not with me is against me, and whoever does not gather
with me scatters
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 11/14-23:”Now he was casting
out a demon that was mute; when the demon had gone out, the one who had been
mute spoke, and the crowds were amazed. But some of them said, ‘He casts out
demons by Beelzebul, the ruler of the demons.’Others, to test him, kept
demanding from him a sign from heaven. But he knew what they were thinking and
said to them, ‘Every kingdom divided against itself becomes a desert, and house
falls on house.If Satan also is divided against himself, how will his kingdom
stand? for you say that I cast out the demons by Beelzebul. Now if I cast out
the demons by Beelzebul, by whom do your exorcists cast them out? Therefore they
will be your judges. But if it is by the finger of God that I cast out the
demons, then the kingdom of God has come to you. When a strong man, fully armed,
guards his castle, his property is safe. But when one stronger than he attacks
him and overpowers him, he takes away his armour in which he trusted and divides
his plunder. Whoever is not with me is against me, and whoever does not gather
with me scatters.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News published on August 30-31/2019
IDF identifies Iranian officers behind Hezbollah’s secret missile project
Lebanese Bank Denies Doing Banking Activities for Hizbullah
US sanctions Jammal Trust Bank in Lebanon for financial ties to Hezbollah
Sfeir from Baabda: U.S. Sanctions Won't Target Other Banks
Finance minister: Lebanon banking sector can withstand US sanctions
Salameh Reassures Customers of Sanctioned JTB: Deposits are Secure
Lebanon not informed about route of Iranian tanker: Finance minister
Iran tanker released by Gibraltar headed to Lebanese waters, not port: Turkey
UN renews peacekeeping mission amid Israel-Lebanon tensions
Lebanon’s Hezbollah hands two crashed drones to Lebanese army
Hizbullah Official Says Group to Respond Deep inside Israel
Hariri Calls Guterres, Sees 'Important Message' in UNIFIL Term Extension
Hasan Discusses Syrian Regugee Births with UNHCR
From Latin America to West Africa, Hezbollah’s complex web of connections is
fuelling its terrorist activity
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on August 30-31/2019
Netanyahu tells Macron timing wrong for Iran talks on nuclear deal
Bolton: Iran will be held accountable for actions harming FDD
Trump says US not involved in Iran satellite launch failur
Iran’s enriched uranium stock grows well past deal’s cap: IAEA report
Britain, France, Germany to Hold Iran Talks
Iraq Probes Find Israel behind 'Some' Militia Base Attacks
Satellite photos show burning Iran space center launch pad
US Treasury sanctions 4 Iran-linked financiers for moving mlns to Hamas in Gaza
EU’s Mogherini welcomes any progress beyond preserving Iran’s nuclear dea
Turkey’s FM: Turkish forces will leave Syria only after political agreement
Syria, Russia step up assault on opposition stronghold: Opposition, residents
UN to ‘facilitate’ evacuations from Syria desert camp
Russia says Syrian army will unilaterally cease fire in Idlib on August 31
UN envoy hopes for Syria constitution committee next month
Iranian tanker Adrian Darya again says it will go to Turkey
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on August 30-31/2019
IDF identifies Iranian officers behind Hezbollah’s secret
missile/project/Jerusalem Post/August 30/2019
From Latin America to West Africa, Hezbollah’s complex web of connections is
fuelling its terrorist activity/Emanuele Ottolenghi/Foundation for Defense of
Democracies/August 30/2019
French and Iranian masks slip with G7 trap/Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/August
30/2019
Why Russia shouldn’t be allowed back into the G7/Luke Coffey/Arab News/August
30/2019
Actions speak louder than words for Erdogan, Putin/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/August
30/2019
The flaw in Trump’s maximum pressure campaign toward Iran/Dennis Ross and Dana
Stroul/The Washington Post/August 30/2019
Is Iran Negotiating Its Way to Negotiations/Omer Carmi/The Washington
Institute/August 30/ 2019
Despite Talk of Trump-Rouhani Summit, Treasury Imposes New Sanctions on Iran/Behnam
Ben Taleblu/Foundation for Defense of Democracies/August 30/2019
Stop Indulging Javad Zarif/There’s nothing ‘moderate’ about the Iranian foreign
minister, who is now threatening our think tank./Mark Dubowitz/Foundation for
Defense of Democracies/August 30/2019
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News
published
on August 29-30/2019
IDF identifies Iranian officers behind Hezbollah’s secret missile project
Jerusalem Post/August 30/2019
Israeli military identifies Iranian officers behind clandestine missile project;
Lebanese government held responsible for project despite being unaware of it
A Hezbollah member for over 30 years who reportedly replaced Mustafa Badreddine
after he was killed in 2016, is wanted by the US government for his role in
planning and executing the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing that killed 307 people.
On the Hugh Hewitt Show, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo spoke globally about
Israel’s right to defense in the context of a conversation about Iran.
“Each time Israel has been forced to take actions to defend itself, the United
States has made very clear that that country has not only the right but the duty
to protect its own people, and we are always supportive of their efforts to do
that,” Pompeo said. “And so with respect to ensuring that Israel is treated
fairly at the United Nations, Israel can certainly count on the United States of
America.”
Hezbollah has over 130,000 rockets and missiles of all sorts of ranges and
payloads, and while the group has been working on this project since 2013, they
have only several dozen precision missiles.
The IDF in the past few months noticed an increase in attempts by the group to
import Iranian-made components for the project, which would have allowed the
group to accurately strike within 10 m. of its intended target.
The terrorist group first tried to bring in ready-to-use precision missiles from
Iran to Lebanon overland via Syria in 2013. But when the majority of those
attempts were thwarted by alleged Israeli airstrikes, Hezbollah decided in 2016
to take “dumb” missiles from Syria and upgrade them to precision missiles.
But continued airstrikes forced the group to move their project to Lebanon,
where Israel has not acted since 2006.
The move by the group was nevertheless noticed three years ago by the
Intelligence Directorate, and over the years there were leaks to the media and
speeches by Netanyahu and Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon in an attempt to push
the international community to act.
In mid-July, Danon warned that Israeli intelligence had uncovered evidence
showing that Iran had been smuggling equipment for the project by sea into the
port of Beirut since last year.
Netanyahu warned in December that the Lebanese Shi’ite group has been trying to
build near the city’s port and Hariri Airport an infrastructure to convert
ground-to-ground missiles into precision missiles.
And last October, Fox News reported that GPS components that can be installed on
unguided rockets were being flown into Beirut on civilian airliners.
Israel, which continues to monitor those sites with a variety of capabilities,
noticed that Iran began moving production material to Lebanon by land through
the Masnaa border crossing with Syria as well as by sea and air, in an attempt
to place Hezbollah’s missile arsenal on another level.
Nevertheless, Hezbollah has been unable to build operational factories to
produce precision missiles for use against Israel.
While the Lebanese government – including Prime Minister Saad Hariri and
President Michel Aoun – are unaware of the project, the IDF sees them as
responsible for any attacks against Israel.
Israel declassified the intelligence on the active project in an attempt to push
Beirut and the international community to take action and put a stop to the
project. Additional intelligence will be released in the coming days.
Early Saturday, a central component of the group’s project was hit by an alleged
Israeli drone in the heart of the group’s stronghold of Dahiyeh.
The alleged attack on Saturday, which marked the first such “hostile action” by
Israel in Lebanon since the 2006 Second Lebanese War, was carried out by two
armed drones allegedly carrying 5.5 kg. of C4 explosives each. The attack
seriously damaged an industrial-sized planetary mixer that is needed to create
propellants to improve the engine and accuracy of missiles.
It was hit before it was moved to a secure site in the Bekaa Valley.
The tailor-made Iranian mixer, which is one of the key parts of
precision-missile technology, was seriously damaged, and the computerized
control mechanism that was in a separate crate was totally destroyed in the
blast.
Had the mixer become operational, it would have allowed Hezbollah to produce
large quantities of precision-guided long-range missiles that would pose a
serious threat to Israel.
Due to the increased tensions along the border the head of the Northern Command
Maj.-Gen. Amir Baram met with heads of regional government in the north along
with Northern District commander in the Home Front Brig.-Gen. Itzik Bar and
other senior officers.
“I am indebted to the local leaders for their cooperation, discussion, and for
the reasonable responses, which show a strong civilian leadership,” he said.
“Maintaining civilians’ lives and routines does not contradict the fact that we
need to prepare for emergencies and be connected with the commanders and units
in the region. I emphasize that tourist attractions, parks, and events are all
operating as usual. We are preparing for every possibility, and if we need to,
we will respond. For that reason, I can not meet with local leaders to discuss
this.”
Due to the tensions, farmers were asked to refrain from approaching the border
fence area on Thursday and troops in several combat brigades in the North will
be confined to their bases until further notice.
The IDF began limiting traffic on roads along the Lebanese border Tuesday
morning, ordering all units in the area to restrict travel up to 5 km. from the
border and ordering all troops to carry weapons and wear protective equipment
should their request to drive on the border roads be approved.
The army’s Northern Command has been on high alert since Saturday night
expecting a limited strike against military targets after the Israeli Air Force
carried out strikes against a cell belonging to the IRGC in Syria, which was on
its way to launch armed drones to attack targets in northern Israel. The
explosive-laden drones crashed and exploded in Beirut several hours later.
*Tovah Lazaroff contributed to this report.
Lebanese Bank Denies Doing Banking Activities for
Hizbullah
Associated Press/Naharnet/August 30/2019
A Lebanese bank targeted by the U.S. Treasury Department for "knowingly
facilitating banking activities" for Hizbullah denied the charges Friday, saying
it abides by international laws. The Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control
sanctioned Jammal Trust Bank on Thursday and added it to its list of global
terrorist organizations. Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil tweeted that the
country's banking sector will be able to overcome the repercussions of the
Department of Treasury's decision, adding that deposits of the bank's clients
will be safe. The bank said it learned about the sanctions "with great surprise"
and "denies each and every allegation" on which the Treasury based its action.
The statement also said the bank is committed to "abiding strictly by Central
Bank of Lebanon rules and regulations, as well as all international rules and
regulations on countering money laundering and financing of terrorism."
The bank said it shall take appropriate steps in order "to clear its good name,"
adding that it would appeal the Treasury's decision. The Association of Banks in
Lebanon said in a statement Thursday night that it regrets the decision adding
that this will not have any effects on the country's banking sector.
The U.S. has been imposing sanctions on officials from Hizbullah that Washington
considers a terrorist organization for years. The Treasury Department last month
targeted a Hizbullah security official and two members of Lebanon's parliament
suspected of using their positions to further the aims of the Iran-backed
militia and "bolster Iran's malign activities."In 2011, the Treasury Department
accused the Lebanese Canadian Bank of laundering money from drugs and other
operations for clients tied to Hizbullah. Two years later, the bank agreed to
pay U.S. authorities $102 million to settle the charges.Most of the assets of
the Lebanese Canadian Bank were later acquired by the Lebanese subsidiary of
France's Societe General.
US sanctions Jammal Trust Bank in Lebanon for financial
ties to Hezbollah
Reuters, Washington/Thursday, 29 August 2019
The United States on Thursday sanctioned Lebanon-based Jammal Trust Bank SAL and
its subsidiaries for allegedly facilitating the financial activities of
Hezbollah, according to the Treasury Department, which said the bank funnels
money to the families of suicide bombers. The United States is determined to cut
off support in Lebanon for the group, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a
statement, adding that “Jammal Trust’s misconduct undermines the integrity of
the Lebanese financial system.” Since 1997, the United States has labeled
Hezbollah a terrorist group, saying it threatens the peace and stability of the
Middle East and is backed by Iran. Jammal Trust is a 50-year-old commercial bank
with branches throughout Lebanon, according to its website. A senior
administration official told reporters in a conference call laying out the
sanctions that “we do have a very good relationship with the central bank of
Lebanon and we have confidence that they'll take the right action here.” “It
sends the message loud and clear that the United States is very serious about
disrupting terrorist activity and will continue to take action where we believe
it’s warranted,” the official said. But the Lebanese association of banks said
it regretted the decision. In a statement cited by local media, the association
said the move would not affect Lebanon’s banking sector and reassured depositors
their money in the bank would be fine. Separately, the United States also
sanctioned four individuals for moving money from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps to Hamas through Hezbollah.
Sfeir from Baabda: U.S. Sanctions Won't Target Other Banks
Naharnet/August 30/2019
The head of the Association of Banks in Lebanon, Salim Sfeir, on Friday
reassured that “no other Lebanese banks” will be targeted by U.S. sanctions,
after Washington sanctioned Lebanon’s Jammal Trust Bank over alleged Hizbullah
transactions. Speaking after a meeting with President Michel Aoun in Baabda,
Sfeir said the Association is “studying the U.S. decision regarding Jammal Trust
Bank,” while stressing that “the interests and rights of all depositors will be
preserved.” “I have met with the Americans and they confirmed that no other
banks will be targeted with sanctions, especially that all banks are abiding by
the applicable laws and regulations,” Sfer added.
Finance minister: Lebanon banking sector can withstand US
sanctions
Agencies/Friday, 30 August 2019
Lebanon’s banking sector can handle the impact of the US sanctions against
Jammal Trusk Bank and guarantee the money of depositors, the finance minister
said on Friday. Ali Hassan Khalil said on Twitter he was confident “of the
banking sector’s ability to absorb the implications...and guarantee the money of
depositors...and the central bank is doing what is necessary.” Earlier on
Friday, Jammal Trusk Bank denied the US charges, saying it abides by
international laws. The Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned
Jammal Trust Bank on Thursday. The bank said it learned about the sanctions
“with great surprise” and “denies each and every allegation” on which the
Treasury based its action. Friday’s statement also said the bank is committed to
“abiding strictly by Central Bank of Lebanon rules and regulations, as well as
all international rules and regulations on countering money laundering and
financing of terrorism.”The bank also said it shall take appropriate steps in
order “to clear its good name,” adding that it would appeal the Treasury’s
decision.
Salameh Reassures Customers of Sanctioned JTB: Deposits are
Secure
Naharnet/August 30/2019
Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh stressed on Friday that BDL is closely
following the issue of Jammal Trust Bank sanctioned by the US treasury and
reassured its customers that their deposits were “secure.”Salameh said: “BDL has
a presence in (Jammal Trust Bank) the bank and all legal deposits are secure and
guaranteed during their time of maturity in order to preserve the interests of
customers.”“Liquidity is secured in order to meet the requirements of the bank’s
depositors,” he told Arab Economic News in an interview. The U.S. administration
imposed sanctions Thursday on Lebanon’s Jammal Trust Bank over transactions
allegedly linked to Hizbullah. The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of
Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) said the bank “knowingly facilitates banking
activities for Hizbullah.”The Association of Banks in Lebanon meanwhile voiced
regret over the sanctions on Jammal Trust Bank, reassuring that the measure will
not affect the banking sector or JTB’s clients.
Lebanon not informed about route of Iranian tanker: Finance
minister
Reuters, Beirut /Friday, 30 August 2019
Lebanon has not been informed whether an Iranian oil tanker, at the center of a
US-Iran confrontation, was heading to one of its ports, the finance minister
told Reuters on Friday. “We have not been informed of the Iranian oil tanker
Adrian Darya heading (here),” Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil said.
Turkey’s Foreign Minister said earlier that the tanker was headed for Lebanon.
Iran tanker released by Gibraltar headed to Lebanese
waters, not port: Turkey
AFP/Arab News/August 30/ 2019
*Iran said it has sold the oil in the tanker
*The tanker holds 2.1 million barrels of oil worth more than $140 million.
OSLO: Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Friday he wanted to
clarify that an Iranian tanker at the center of a dispute between Washington and
Tehran was headed towards Lebanese territorial waters, not a Lebanese port.
Earlier on Friday, the minister told Reuters the ship was headed to Lebanon's
main port. "I didn't mean that this tanker is going to a Lebanese port, but
according to the information coordinates it is heading to the territorial waters
of the country," he told reporters later at an Oslo forum.
"It doesn't mean that it is going to reach a Lebanese port. But for sure...it is
not coming to Turkish ports either. “This tanker is not heading actually to
Iskenderun (in Turkey), this tanker is heading to Lebanon,” Cavusoglu had said,
referring to the Adrian Darya 1 vessel. The ship was suspected of transporting
crude oil to Syria, in violation of European sanctions against the country, and
the US has called for it to be seized. Later, a Lebanese minister denied
receiving any docking request. “We still buy gas from Iran, but we don’t buy
oil,” he stressed, adding that Turkey was monitoring the vessel’s progress “very
closely.” A court in the British territory ordered the tanker’s release on
August 15 despite a last-minute legal bid by the United States to have it
detained. The Adrian Darya 1 set sail three days later for the eastern
Mediterranean, carrying 2.1 million barrels of oil worth more than $140 million.
Iran said on Monday it had sold the oil, but did not name the buyer.
UN renews peacekeeping mission amid Israel-Lebanon tensions
AFP, United Nations, United States/ Friday, 30 August 2019
The UN Security Council on Thursday voted to renew its long-running peacekeeping
mission in Lebanon for a year, warning of a “new conflict” with neighboring
Israel. The draft resolution, written by France and approved unanimously, would
allow for the approximately 10,000 members of the United Nations Interim Force
in Lebanon (UNIFIL) -- which was created in March 1978 -- to stay in place.
According to the draft text, the Security Council warned that “violations of the
cessation of hostilities could lead to a new conflict that none of the parties
or the region can afford.” It “condemns all violations of the Blue Line” between
Lebanon and Israel, “both by air and ground, and strongly calls upon all parties
to respect the cessation of hostilities.”The Lebanese army fired on an Israeli
drone in the southern part of the country on Wednesday. That incident came just
days after Shiite movement Hezbollah blamed an armed drone attack in its south
Beirut stronghold on Israel -- an incident that President Michel Aoun said
amounted to a “declaration of war.”“Urging all parties to make every effort to
ensure that the cessation of hostilities is sustained,” the Security Council
called on all sides to “exercise maximum calm and restraint.”The resolution
includes a requirement -- on the insistence of the United States, diplomats said
-- for the UN secretary general to perform an evaluation on the UNIFIL mission
and its staff before June 1, 2020. Washington was unable, however, to reduce the
maximum allowed number of peacekeepers deployed to 9,000. Also at the US’s
request, the Security Council resolution calls for UNIFIL to have full access to
the Blue Line. It expresses “concern that UNIFIL still has not been able to
access all relevant locations north of the Blue Line related to the discovery of
tunnels crossing the Blue Line.” Israel has said it discovered and destroyed a
series of cross-border Hezbollah tunnels since late last year.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah hands two crashed drones to Lebanese
army
Reuters, Beirut/Friday, 30 August 2019
Lebanon’s Hezbollah group on Friday handed over two drones that crashed in
Beirut to the Lebanese army, Hezbollah’s al-Manar news channel and Lebanese
military sources said. The army and Hezbollah have said the two drones, which
went down on Sunday, were Israeli. They said one exploded and one crashed in the
Hezbollah-dominated southern suburbs of Beirut, causing damage to the group’s
media center. A security official in the region has described the target of the
drone strikes as linked to precision-guided missile projects. Israel on Thursday
accused Iran of stepping up efforts to provide Hezbollah with precision-guided
missile production facilities.
Hizbullah Official Says Group to Respond Deep inside Israel
Naharnet/August 30/2019
A Hizbullah official said Friday that his group’s anticipated retaliation
against Israel will take place deep inside Israel. “The stance of Hizbullah
Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has pushed the Zionist enemy to live
in a state of extreme terror, panic and caution, to an extent that it has
started hiding behind dummies in its military vehicles,” ex-MP Mohammed Yaghi,
who is Nasrallah’s executive aide, said. He was referring to Nasrallah’s
announcement on Sunday that Hizbullah will retaliate to the death of two
Hizbullah members in an Israeli airstrike in Syria and to an Israeli drone
explosion over Hizbullah’s stronghold in Beirut’s southern suburbs. "I say to
the Israeli army along the border, from tonight be ready and wait for us,"
Nasrallah said. "What happened yesterday will not pass."Addressing Israeli
residents, Nasrallah added: "Do not rest, do not be reassured, and do not bet
for a single moment that Hizbullah will allow... aggression of this kind."But
Yaghi hinted Friday that the response will not be on the border but rather deep
inside Israel. “Our decision is to strike this enemy, which has launched a
direct attack on us, on a normal house in (Syria’s) Aqraba and in Beirut’s
southern suburbs (through a drone explosion). This is not a mere threat but a
real action after which the enemy will learn not to commit new follies,” Yaghi
said. “We have prepared equipment, weapons and personnel to confront the enemy
and the resistance is today much stronger than the pre-2006 aggression era. We
will let the enemy taste the bitterness and it will regret its deed and
aggression very much. They struck deep inside and we will respond deep inside
and we will have another response for their drones,” Yaghi added. One drone came
down and another exploded early Sunday in the southern Beirut suburb of Mouawad,
damaging a Hizbullah media center and lightly injuring three people who were in
the building. Nasrallah vowed in a pre-scheduled speech on Sunday evening to "do
everything" to thwart Israeli drone attacks in Lebanon, threatening to down any
unmanned aircraft that violates Lebanon’s airspace. He also pledged to retaliate
from Lebanon against the Israeli airstrike that killed two Hizbullah members in
Syria.
Hariri Calls Guterres, Sees 'Important Message' in UNIFIL
Term Extension
Naharnet/August 30/2019
Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Friday held phone talks with U.N. chief Antonio
Guterres over the latest Israeli drone attack in Beirut’s southern suburbs, his
office said. “He stressed to him that Israel bears the full responsibility for
its unjustified attack on a densely inhabited area in Beirut’s suburbs, which is
the first of its kind since 2006, in addition to its repeated violation of U.N.
Security Council Resolution 1701,” Hariri’s office said in a statement. “PM
Hariri stressed to the U.N. secretary general that this unacceptable act
threatens the stability and calm that have engulfed the international border for
the past 13 years, warning that any escalation by Israel might drag the region
into an uncalculated conflict, which doubles the need for all the possible
international pressures on Israel,” the statement added. At the end of the
talks, the two men agreed on the need to “maintain communication between them to
follow up on the efforts that are being exerted to prevent any escalation.”Later
on Friday, Hariri thanked the U.N. Security Council member states for "voting
unanimously to extend the mandate of the U.N. forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL)." "This
is also an occasion to thank the UNIFIL forces and the countries contributing to
these forces for the sacrifices of their troops and their services for the sake
of preserving peace," Hariri added. He also noted that "the unanimity in the
U.N. Security Council reflects the international community's unity over
supporting Lebanon and its stability and security and represent an important
message in this regard at this very moment."
Hasan Discusses Syrian Regugee Births with UNHCR
Naharnet/August 30/2019
Interior Minister Raya el-Hasan discussed, with a delegation from the UN High
Commissioner for Refugees led by Mireille Girard, issues related to Syrian
refugees in Lebanon particularly birth registration for the displaced, the
National News Agency reported on Friday. Hasan told the delegation that she
would issue a circular to local mayors urging them to put more effort in
registering the births of displaced children, as per the relevant cabinet
decision, according to NNA. The delegation, in turn, told the Minister that
cooperation between the Commission and the Ministry of Interior have recorded an
improvement in birth registrations for Syrian children born in Lebanon from 21
percent to 50 percent in one year. It was decided to make greater efforts to
speed up the registration to include current births.
From Latin America to West Africa, Hezbollah’s complex web
of connections is fuelling its terrorist activity
إيمانويل أوتولينغي/مؤسسة الدفاع عن الديمقراطية: من أمريكا اللاتينية إلى غرب
إفريقيا، تعمل شبكة اتصالات حزب الله المعقدة على تغذية نشاطها الإرهابي
Emanuele Ottolenghi/Foundation for Defense of Democracies/August 30/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/78021/%d8%a5%d9%8a%d9%85%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%88%d9%8a%d9%84-%d8%a3%d9%88%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%84%d9%8a%d9%86%d8%ba%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%a4%d8%b3%d8%b3%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af%d9%81%d8%a7%d8%b9-%d8%b9%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84/
Despite efforts to curtail the group, its fundraising apparatus continues to
thrive, thanks to strong loyalty and family bonds.
When Paraguay announced it was designating Hezbollah as an international
terrorist organisation last week, it created a new legal basis to take action
against the Lebanese group’s money laundering and terror-financing activities.
These fundraising operations criss-cross the globe, from Latin America and the
US to West Africa. Hezbollah exploits existing smuggling routes and links to
cartels and relies on large family networks to boost its coffers, without having
to develop a criminal infrastructure. Latin America is just starting to wake up
to the threat.
With Hezbollah’s proscription, Asuncion can help reduce the group’s pervasive
and destabilising influence, across Latin America. The fight against Hezbollah
needs to be global and Latin America, where much of the group’s illicit
activities are concentrated, is a good place to start.
Until recently, Latin American governments were unwilling to label Hezbollah a
terrorist organisation. Last month, however, Argentina took the unprecedented
step of doing so, noting Hezbollah’s responsibility for terror attacks against
an Israeli embassy and a Jewish community centre on Argentinian soil in 1992 and
1994 respectively. The designations followed Argentina’s creation of a public
registry for terror entities and individuals.
Argentina’s actions clearly influenced Paraguay, its neighbour to the north,
whose government previously refused to acknowledge the obvious. In January,
Paraguay’s then foreign minister Luis Castiglioni publicly denied that Hezbollah
had engaged in illicit finance activities in the country. Paraguay’s director of
the National Intelligence Secretariat Esteban Aquino Bernal echoed his claim,
suggesting that the main challenge for financial authorities was not money
laundering but tax evasion. Interior minister Juan Ernesto Villamayor also
downplayed the issue. Even the Supreme Court’s then president Victor Manuel
Nunez Rodriguez weighed in, saying he had no evidence Hezbollah was financing
terrorism.
The Trump administration urged Paraguay to reconsider. Multiple visits by senior
officials – including by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Paraguay in April and
Argentina in July – ultimately persuaded Paraguay’s government that it needed to
get tougher on Hezbollah.
Even before the Hezbollah designation, Paraguay extradited a handful of
suspected Hezbollah operatives to the US. However, the creation of a new legal
instrument was necessary, given that Paraguay has for years been a key hub of
Hezbollah’s illicit finance operations. Over the course of four decades, the
terrorist organisation has built extensive infrastructure in the Tri-Border Area
(TBA) of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay.
The TBA is a metropolitan centre, home to nearly one million residents and a
well-developed tourism infrastructure, including three international airports
and a high-quality service industry. It is also an ideal place for Hezbollah to
establish roots and raise funds, given the pervasive corruption in Paraguay’s
government, not to mention its weak and overburdened judicial system. The TBA is
shared by three countries, with two languages, three currencies, weak border
controls and well-established smuggling routes that have contributed to a
thriving illicit economy, which Brazilian authorities have assessed to be worth
$18 billion a year. Hezbollah has taken its share of that economy through a
network of local residents; the area has one of the largest Shia Lebanese
communities in Latin America.
Hezbollah’s modus operandi in the TBA is a miniature version of what it does in
Lebanon to control and co-opt the Shia population. As in Lebanon, Hezbollah has
funded the establishment of Shia communal institutions across Latin America.
Where those institutions already existed, it has offered its support to sustain
them. The result is that clerics of local mosques and cultural centres,
instructors of local youth movements such as the scouts, and teachers at local
schools are imparting Hezbollah dogma to local communities.
Hezbollah’s modus operandi in the TBA is a miniature version of what it does in
Lebanon to control and co-opt the Shia population.
The results are very visible. Communities in Latin America regularly mark May
25, the day Israel withdrew from south Lebanon, with carefully choreographed
communal events. They frequently welcome Hezbollah and Iranian clerics as
speakers. They support Hezbollah’s media machine with local correspondents and
get support, in turn, from Hezbollah’s publications to advance their agenda. For
example, via the Lebanese embassy in Paraguay, Hezbollah mounted a pressure
campaign to prevent the extradition to the US of a suspected Hezbollah
financier, Nader Mohamad Farhat. Moreover, Shia communities in the TBA join in
mourning Hezbollah’s fallen, especially when they have a family connection to
the deceased.
Last week, for example, Lebanese residents of the TBA took to social media to
mourn the death of two Hezbollah operatives, Yasser Ahmad Daher and Hassan Zbeeb,
killed in southern Syria in the recent Israeli airstrikes. Israel claimed the
two had travelled to Iran to train with drones before being dispatched to
southern Syria and had been planning to mount an attack across the border.
Hezbollah can also leverage its followers in the TBA for fundraising purposes.
In recent years, given Hezbollah’s growing need to generate revenue over and
above the annual group’s subsidy from Iran, its financial backers and
facilitators overseas escalated their involvement in illicit activities. In
Latin America, this included drug trafficking and money laundering on behalf of
local criminal syndicates.
For cartels, Hezbollah offers an opportunity to expand their markets without
having to build a criminal infrastructure in far-flung places. After all,
Hezbollah can leverage supporters in expatriate communities across the globe.
Access to this global network offers the cartels efficient channels to
distribute merchandise to distant markets as well as repatriate revenue through
complex trade-based money-laundering schemes.
In the Lebanese-Canadian Bank case of 2011, US authorities accused Hezbollah
facilitators of laundering drug money for Mexican and Colombian cartels to the
tune of $200 million a month by channelling it through West African used-car
businesses that imported their inventory from US-based dealers. The money, once
laundered through the bank, would then be repatriated to Colombia, minus a hefty
commission.
The complex web of connections necessary to run these schemes is rooted in the
large family networks that run through Hezbollah-linked expatriate communities.
For example, the Barakat family, the most identified with Hezbollah in the TBA,
has multiple members and businesses, not only across Latin America but in West
Africa as well, an important area for Hezbollah’s money laundering and
drug-trafficking operations.
The US is not immune to such influence. Many of Hezbollah’s schemes run through
Miami and other American commercial hubs, as evidenced by a string of recent
cases involving TBA businesses trading with front companies in both Miami and
New York. Such schemes often triangulate with Hong Kong and mainland China,
where Hezbollah operatives have an established commercial presence, thus
ensuring they control virtually every step of the trade.
The size and complexity of these operations has until now ensured that
Hezbollah’s terror-financing operations continue to thrive, despite the
occasional setback caused by criminal investigations into drug trafficking and
money-laundering schemes.
If Hezbollah’s sources of funding outside Tehran are to dry up, the Trump
administration and its allies, especially in Europe and the Gulf, need to
aggressively expand investigations to halt Hezbollah’s fundraising.
So far, the signs are not encouraging. The Trump administration has certainly
used its political influence to get other countries to impose sanctions against
Hezbollah, including in Latin America. Yet much more needs to be done.
Hezbollah’s fundraising apparatus continues to thrive, thanks to the strong
loyalty and family bonds that tie local communities to the terror group.
Prosecuting illicit finance schemes and disrupting their chain of supply is a
vital component of any successful strategy. Ultimately, though, unless the
social, educational, religious and cultural infrastructure of these communities
is permanently severed from Hezbollah’s control, the group’s nefarious influence
and ability to indoctrinate, radicalise and recruit among those communities will
ensure continuity of commitment to its fundraising efforts.
*Emanuele Ottolenghi is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defence of
Democracies
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on August 30-31/2019
Netanyahu tells Macron timing wrong for Iran talks on nuclear deal
Reuters, Jerusalem/Friday, 30 August 2019
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged French President Emmanuel Macron on
Friday to avoid new talks with Israel’s regional arch-foe Iran, his office said,
as European leaders pushed to save the 2015 nuclear deal. “This is precisely the
wrong timing to hold talks with Iran, while it is increasing its aggression in
the region,” Netanyahu told Macron in a telephone conversation that was
initiated by the French leader, according to the Israeli statement. Macron on
Sunday paved the way for a potential breakthrough in the standoff between
Washington and Tehran over the nuclear deal after Iran’s foreign minister made a
flying visit for talks with host France at the G7 summit. On Monday, at the G7
summit, U.S. President Donald Trump said that he would meet Iran’s president
under the right circumstances and that talks were underway to see how countries
could open credit lines to keep Iran’s economy afloat. The nuclear deal has been
in jeopardy since the United States withdrew from it last year and re-imposed
economic sanctions, seeking to push Tehran into wider security concessions
including curbs on its ballistic missile program. Netanyahu, who sees Iran as a
mortal threat and has long opposed the nuclear deal, has urged that sanctions be
re-imposed on Tehran. He has so far been in lockstep with the Trump
administration over its Iran policy. On Tuesday, Iranian President Hassan
Rouhani said the Islamic Republic would not talk to the United States until all
sanctions imposed on Tehran are lifted. Rouhani said Iran was always ready to
hold talks. “But first the US should act by lifting all illegal, unjust and
unfair sanctions imposed on Iran,” he said. EU foreign policy chief Federica
Mogherini said on Friday that the European Union will work to preserve the
nuclear deal and would welcome any moves to add to its conditions. Macron’s
diplomatic moves came as Israel-Iran tensions flared. Last Saturday, Israel’s
military struck in Syria in what it described as the thwarting of an Iranian-led
killer-drone attack on Israeli targets. On Thursday, Israel accused Iran of
stepping up efforts to provide the Lebanese Hezbollah militia with
precision-guided missile production facilities.“Israel will defend itself
against any attacks and prevent enemies that seek its destruction from obtaining
nuclear weapons,” Netanyahu told Macron, according to the statement. Israel and
the Iranian-backed Shi’ite Hezbollah are on high alert after drones were used on
Sunday to attack what a security official in the region described as a target
linked to precision-guided missile projects. Hezbollah has blamed Israel for the
rare strike in Beirut, and said it will retaliate. The heavily armed group has
denied harboring such missile facilities.
Bolton: Iran will be held accountable for actions harming
FDD
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 30 August 2019
US National Security Adviser John Bolton said on Friday that Iran will be held
accountable for any action taken to harm the Foundation for the Defense of
Democracies (FDD) or that of any American. “Iran threating a US think tank & its
CEO is beyond the pale. @FDD has done great work to expose Iranian corruption &
malicious activities, & I doubt this spurious action will deter them,” Bolton
said in a tweet. Iran had announced on Thursday it is preparing to implement
sanctions on the American think tank by soon releasing a list of blacklisted
people related to the organization. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas
Mousavi said that a list of people accused of working with FDD will be given to
Iran’s judiciary branch to be added to the country’s sanctions list. Mousavi
added that the list consists of “people from different nationalities who have
effective roles in the foundation’s measures against the Iranian people,”
according to the official Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA).
Trump says US not involved in Iran satellite launch failure
Reuters, Washington/Friday, 30 August 2019
US President Donald Trump said on Friday that the United States was not involved
with a failed Iranian rocket launch, and he wished Tehran luck at finding out
what went wrong. “The United States of America was not involved in the
catastrophic accident during final launch preparations for the Safir SLV Launch
at Semnan Launch Site One in Iran,” Trump said on Twitter. The rocket exploded
on its launch pad at a space center in northern Iran on Thursday, an Iranian
official said. A US official also said Iran suffered a satellite launch failure.
Iran’s enriched uranium stock grows well past deal’s cap: IAEA report
Reuters, Vienna/Friday, 30 August 2019
Iran has gone further in breaching its nuclear deal with world powers,
increasing its stock of enriched uranium while still refining to a greater
purity than allowed, a UN atomic watchdog agency report shows. The International
Atomic Energy Agency, which is policing the 2015 deal, said in July that Iran
had exceeded both its 202.8 kg limit on enriched uranium stock and its 3.67% cap
on the fissile purity to which Tehran is allowed to refine uranium. Almost two
months after it overshot those limits, Iran has accumulated 241.6 kg of enriched
uranium and is enriching up to 4.5%, still far short of the 20% it reached
before the deal and the roughly 90% that is considered weapons-grade material,
the quarterly IAEA report to member states seen by Reuters showed.
Britain, France, Germany to Hold Iran Talks
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 30/2019
Britain, France and Germany will hold talks Friday on how to preserve the
beleaguered Iran nuclear deal and protect shipping in the Gulf. Tensions have
spiked recently in the strategic shipping lane where Iran has seized Western
tankers as Tehran and Washington have locked horns over the 2015 deal. US
President Donald Trump last year unilaterally pulled out of the accord that
handed Iran relief from sanctions in return for curbs on its atomic programme.
The move alarmed European powers, which see the deal as the best way to stop
Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, and infuriated the Islamic republic. The foreign
ministers of Britain, France and Germany -- the three European parties to the
deal -- will be joined by EU diplomatic chief Federica Mogherini for talks on
the sidelines of an EU meeting in Helsinki. All have repeatedly said they are
committed to saving the deal, but efforts to shield Iran's economy from the
reimposition of US sanctions have so far borne little fruit. The G7 summit last
weekend brought a glimmer of hope as Trump indicated willingness to talk to Iran
and Mogherini said the EU would support such a move -- provided the current deal
was preserved. 'Build on momentum' Ahead of the meeting, British foreign
minister Dominic Raab said they would aim to "build on the momentum of the
positive G7 talks on Iran". As well as mooting the summit with his Iranian
counterpart Hassan Rouhani, Trump also appeared open to a French suggestion that
Iran be given a line of credit to help stabilise its economy. "The nuclear deal
is the only deal on the table that prevents Iran from getting a nuclear weapon
and we will continue working together to encourage Iran to uphold the agreement
in full," Raab said. "We also need the broadest international support possible
to tackle the threats to international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz."
Britain, along with Australia and Bahrain, has joined Washington's Operation
Sentinel mission to protect commercial shipping on the crucial oil trade routes
through the Gulf, in particular at the Strait of Hormuz. Other European
countries have been cool on the idea, fearing greater naval presence in the
region could risk escalating an already febrile situation still further. The
idea has been floated of a European observation mission in the Strait of Hormuz,
a strategic choke point at the mouth of the Gulf, but a number of EU countries
have voiced reservations. Mogherini on Thursday gave a cautious welcome to the
idea of US-Iran talks but stressed that "first and foremost what is existing
needs to be preserved" -- including the 2015 deal. In response to the US pulling
out of the deal and reimposing sanctions, Tehran has breached certain limits on
its nuclear production imposed by the accord, but the EU insists Iran has so far
not taken any irreversible steps.
Iraq Probes Find Israel behind 'Some' Militia Base Attacks
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 30/2019
Iraq's government is preparing a complaint to the U.N. after finding Israel is
"certainly" behind several attacks on Hashed al-Shaabi bases, a parliamentarian
and leading member of the paramilitary force said. The Hashed has blamed both
Israel and the US for a string of blasts and drone sightings at its bases in
recent weeks, but Baghdad has thus far refrained from making accusations. Ahmad
al-Assadi, a Hashed official and spokesman for its parliamentary bloc "Fatah",
told journalists on Thursday in his office in central Baghdad that government
probes would name Israel. "Some of the government investigations have reached a
conclusion that the perpetrator behind some of the attacks is absolutely,
certainly Israel," he said, declining to provide details on the evidence. "The
government is preparing sufficient evidence and documents to complain to the
(U.N.) Security Council. It won't submit a complaint against an unknown entity."
The Hashed was established in 2014 from mostly-Shiite armed groups and
volunteers to fight the Islamic State group and is now formally part of Iraq's
armed forces. But the US and Israel fear some units are an extension of their
arch-foe Iran and have been equipped with precision-guided missiles that could
reach Israel. Since mid-July, five Hashed arms depots and training camps have
been targeted in apparent attacks. The group said it had also fired at
surveillance drones over two other bases. Hashed top officials have said the US
is broadly "responsible" but specifically blamed Israeli drones for the latest
strike on Sunday, which killed a Hashed fighter near Iraq's western border with
Syria. The Pentagon has denied responsibility and said it is cooperating with
Iraq's investigations, but Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its role.
Assadi told reporters the US involvement remained unclear, dulling the group's
earlier accusations. "Israeli planes supported by the U.S.? We can't make that
accusation. Did America give a green light? We can't make that accusation," he
said. But, he added, the Hashed had been expecting an attack amid rising
US-Iranian tensions since Washington withdrew from the landmark nuclear deal
with Tehran last year. The U.S. has since imposed tough sanctions on Iran's top
officials, its energy and financial sectors, as well as a host of Iraqi,
Lebanese and Palestinian firms and people allegedly tied to Tehran. "Are the
attacks that happened surprising for the Iraqi government, the Hashed, or other
factions? Of course not," Assadi said. "It's clear. The Hashed is being
specifically targeted."
Satellite photos show burning Iran space center launch pad
The Associated Press, Dubai/Friday, 30 August 2019
A rocket at an Iranian space center that was to conduct a satellite launch
criticized by the US apparently exploded on its launch pad Thursday, satellite
images show, suggesting the Islamic Republic suffered its third failed launch
this year alone.
While Iranian state media did not acknowledge the incident at the Imam Khomeini
Space Center in Iran’s Semnan province, a top official wrote on Twitter early
Friday that a satellite Tehran planned to launch was safe in a lab. Satellite
images by Planet Labs Inc. and Maxar Technologies showed a black plume of smoke
rising above a launch pad there, with what appeared to be the charred remains of
a rocket and its launch stand. In previous days, satellite images had shown
officials there repainted the launch pad blue. This satellite image from Planet
Labs Inc., that has been annotated by experts at the James Martin Center for
Nonproliferation Studies at Middlebury Institute of International Studies, shows
a fire at a rocket launch pad at the Khomeini Space Center in Iran's Semnan
province, Thursday Aug. 29, 2019. (Planet Labs Inc, Middlebury Institute of
International Studies via AP)
On Thursday morning, half of that paint apparently had been burned away.
“Whatever happened there, it blew up and you’re looking at the smoldering
remains of what used to be there,” said David Schmerler, a senior research
associate at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. Schmerler told
The Associated Press that the images of the space center suggested that the
rocket could have exploded during ignition or possibly briefly lifted off before
crashing back down on the pad. Water runoff from the pad, likely from trying to
extinguish the blaze, could be seen along with a host of vehicles parked nearby.
NPR first reported on the satellite images of the apparent failed launch at the
space center, some 240 kilometers southeast of Iran’s capital, Tehran.
Iranian satellite launches had been anticipated before the end of the year.
In July, Iran’s Information and Communications Technology Minister Mohammad
Javad Azari Jahromi told the AP that Tehran planned three more launches this
year, two for satellites that do remote-sensing work and another that handles
communications.
The Nahid-1 is reportedly the telecommunication satellite. Nahid in Farsi means
“Venus.” The satellite, which had Iran’s first foldable solar panels, was
supposed to be in a low orbit around the Earth for some two-and-a-half months.
The semi-official Mehr news agency quoted Jahromi on Aug. 13 as saying that the
Nahid-1 was ready to be delivered to Iran’s Defense Ministry, signaling a launch
date for the satellite likely loomed. Iran’s National Week of Government, during
which Tehran often inaugurates new projects, began Aug. 24. On Twitter early
Friday, Jahromi did not discuss the apparent rocket explosion, but asserted the
Nahid-1 was safe.“Apparently, some reports say the third attempt for putting a
satellite into orbit have been unsuccessful,” he wrote. “Nahid-1 is fine,
indeed. It is now in a laboratory and reporters can come and see it.”Jahromi’s
claim, if true, could suggest something went wrong in fueling the rocket prior
to launch.
Earlier on Thursday, Iran’s Defense Minister Gen. Amir Hatami told the state-run
IRNA news agency that the country’s satellite activities were “being done in a
transparent way,” responding to AP and other foreign media reporting on activity
at the space center.
“Whenever activity and research bear successful results, we will announce the
good news,” Hatami said. Iran at times in the past hasn’t acknowledged failed
launches. The apparent failed rocket launch comes after two failed satellite
launches of the Payam and Doosti in January and February.
A separate fire at the Imam Khomeini Space Center in February also killed three
researchers, authorities said at the time. “I think it is certainly an image
problem,” said Michael Connell, an Iran analyst at the Arlington, Virginia-based
nonprofit research organization CNA. “I think it’s going to embarrass the
Iranian space agency. On the other hand though, getting a satellite into space
... takes time.”Over the past decade, Iran has sent several short-lived
satellites into orbit and in 2013 launched a monkey into space. The US alleges
such launches defy a UN Security Council resolution calling on Iran to undertake
no activity related to ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons.
Iran, which long has said it does not seek nuclear weapons, maintains its
satellite launches and rocket tests do not have a military component. Tehran
also says it doesn’t violate the UN as it only “called upon” Tehran not to
conduct such tests.
The tests have taken on new importance to the US amid the maximalist approach to
Iran taken by President Donald Trump’s administration. Tensions have been high
between the countries since Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from Iran’s
nuclear deal over a year ago and imposed sanctions, including on Iran’s oil
industry. Iran recently has begun to break the accord itself while trying to
push Europe to help it sell oil abroad. The State Department did not respond to
a request for comment.
US Treasury sanctions 4 Iran-linked financiers for moving
mlns to Hamas in Gaza
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 30 August 2019
The United States sanctioned on Thursday four Iran-linked individuals for moving
money from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to the Palestinian
militant group Hamas. The four were accused of being at the center of a criminal
funding network, connecting the Iranian regime with Hamas’ military arm the al-Qassam
Brigades via Lebanon’s Hezbollah. The US has designated both Hamas and Hezbollah
as terrorist groups. Muhammad Sarur, Kamal Abdelrahman Aref Awad, Fawaz Mahmud
Ali Nasser, and Muhammad Kamal al-Ayy were sanctioned for providing support for
Hamas. The US Treasury, in partnership with the Sultanate of Oman, sanctioned
the four under Executive Order 13224, which targets terrorists and those
providing support to terrorists or acts of terrorism. The US Treasury alleges
that Beirut-based Sarur has played a central role as a middle-man transferring
money from the IRGC – Quds Force (QF), also designated as a terrorist
organization by the US State Department, to the al-Qassam Brigades. The Treasury
identified Sarur as “in charge of all money transfers” between the two
organizations as of 2014, totaling tens of millions of dollars each year. Awad
has been sanctioned for his involvement in the same financial process, as well
as other support for Hamas including giving the Hamas official Salih al-Aruri,
who is also a US-designated terrorist, information regarding Hamas prisoners.
Al-Ayy and Nasser are both accused of working as financial facilitators to
transfer funds to Hamas. Under EO 13224, the US prohibits any dealing with all
four designated individuals or their property. The sanctions come alongside
sanctions against Lebanon’s Jammal Trust Bank SAL and its subsidiaries for
allegedly facilitating the financial activities of Hezbollah and promoting
suicide bombers as part of a wider Iranian terror network. “The key to
understanding these targets is their financial ties to Iran. To be clear: Hamas
must be seen as an Iran proxy, just like Hezbollah, PIJ or Shiite militias,”
said Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president at Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD), in a tweet.
In addition to Jamaal Trust Bank, Treasury also hit four Hamas financiers. The
key to understanding these targets is their financial ties to Iran. To be clear:
Hamas must be seen as an Iran proxy, just like Hezbollah, PIJ or Shiite
militias. The FDD, Schanzer’s Washington-based think tank, has recently been the
target of Iranian sanctions. Iran accuses the FDD of “trying to harm the Iranian
people’s security and vital interests.”The US has sanctioned the Iranian regime
as part of its “maximum pressure” campaign, aimed at preventing Iran from
continuing to support terrorist and proxy groups across the region. US sanctions
include Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and eight military
commanders of the IRGC. On Wednesday the US imposed sanctions on two networks it
says are linked to Iran’s government and military organizations.
EU’s Mogherini welcomes any progress beyond preserving Iran’s nuclear deal
Reuters, Helsinki /Friday, 30 August 2019
The European Union will continue working to preserve world powers’ 2015 nuclear
deal with Iran but would welcome any progress beyond it, EU foreign policy chief
Federica Mogherini said on Friday. “My role...is to preserve the full
implementation of the existing agreements. Again if something else can be built
on it, this would be welcomed and accompanied by the European Union,” Mogherini
told reporters during a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Helsinki. The deal
has been in jeopardy since the United States withdrew from it last year and
reimposed tough economic sanctions on Iran, seeking to push Tehran into wider
security concessions including curbs on its ballistic missile program. New hope
of unblocking the political impasse emerged after Iran’s foreign minister made a
flying visit for talks with host France at the G7 summit in Biarritz last
Sunday. “If this new momentum is real, this can build on the work that we have
been doing for years,” Mogherini said, referring to the existing treaty with
Iran, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The 2015 nuclear deal
between Iran and international powers aimed to curb Iran’s nuclear activities in
exchange for the lifting of many international sanctions on Tehran. Mogherini
declined to answer directly when asked if the United States now demanded that
Iran does more than just going back in line with the existing deal’s
commitments. “Our work is to continue to ensure that there is full compliance
from the Iranian side to its nuclear commitments,” she said.
Turkey’s FM: Turkish forces will leave Syria only after
political agreement
Reuters/Friday, 30 August 2019
Turkey’s foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Friday in Norway that the
Turkish military would leave Syria when a political solution is found, adding
that the Syrian regime doesn’t believe in political solution for now. He added
that Russia assured Turkey that Syrian forces would not attack its observation
posts in Idlib. Cavusoglu also said an Iranian oil tanker, now in waters south
of Turkey and at the center of a confrontation between Washington and Tehran,
was headed for Lebanon. Tracking site Marine Traffic showed earlier on Friday
that the Adrian Darya, formerly called Grace 1, had changed course again and was
headed for the southeastern Turkish port of Iskenderun. Cavusoglu was speaking
with reporters in Norway.
Syria, Russia step up assault on opposition stronghold:
Opposition, residents
Reuters, Beirut /Friday, 30 August 2019
Syria and its ally Russia have stepped up an offensive against the last big
stronghold of Syrian opposition, mounting more air raids and deploying ground
reinforcements including Iranian-backed militias, army defectors and residents
said on Friday. The Russian-led alliance is pushing into densely populated parts
of Idlib province in the northwest where millions of people who fled fighting
elsewhere in Syria have taken refuge. The northwest offensive has prompted UN
warnings of a new humanitarian crisis amid the gains by Damascus and its partner
Moscow, which has helped President Bashar al-Assad turn the tide in the
eight-year-old conflict since intervening in 2015. Moving deeper into territory
along the Turkish border, the advance took the town of Tamaneh after earlier
capturing Khwain, Zarzoor and Tamanah farms, the defectors and residents said.
They were the first gains since the alliance, battling a coalition of extremists
and mainstream Turkey-backed opposition forces, seized a main opposition pocket
in nearby Hama province last week. The offensive has been reinforced by elite
army units and Iranian-backed militias, the defectors and residents said. “There
are daily reinforcements coming from the Iranian militias, elite Republican
Guards units and Fourth Armored Division,” Colonel Mustafa Bakour, a commander
in Jaish al Izza opposition group, told Reuters. Jets flying at high altitude
dropped bombs on the outskirts of Idlib city, the heavily-populated provincial
capital. The aircraft were believed to be Russian, according to activists who
track the warplanes’ activities.
Air strikes
Opposition forces’ resistance has been eroded by relentless air strikes against
civilian areas since the advance began in late April. The campaign has destroyed
dozens of hospitals, schools and civil defence centers, paralyzing life in
opposition-held areas. Moscow and Damascus deny they have targeted civilians and
say they are responding to militant attacks by the former Nusra Front, an
extremist alliance now known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that is the dominant force
in Idlib. Opposition sources say hundreds of troops from the country’s elite
Republican Guards, which is led by President Bashar al-Assad’s brother Maher
al-Assad, have been deployed on the frontlines of southern Idlib province. The
rapid progress of the last few weeks has been attributed to the new lineup of
Russian backed-forces, an army defector and two senior opposition sources
conceded. “The Russians have now moved to depending on the Iranians and elite
army formations in this campaign,” Bakour added, saying this was a move away
from reliance on the so-called Tiger forces who previously provided most of the
army’s ground troops. Speaking in Oslo, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut
Cavusoglu said Russia had assured Turkey its observation posts in northwest
Syria would not be attacked. Syrian troops taking part in the offensive have
encircled opposition forces and a Turkish military observation post near the
town of Morek. The post is one of 12 that Ankara established in the northwest
under a deal with Moscow and Tehran two years ago to reduce fighting between
Assad’s forces and opposition forces. “Russia gave assurances to us that the
regime would not attack our posts. We have no plan to withdraw military
personnel from those posts,” Cavusoglu said, adding continued attacks by Syrian
forces in Idlib may drive more Syrian refugees to Europe. Since capturing the
strategic town of Khan Sheikhoun nearly 10 days ago, Russian and Syrian jets
were now escalating strikes on the city of Maraat al-Numan that lies further
north. At least 12 civilians, including five children, were killed during raids
on the now ghost city that has seen most of its over 140,000 inhabitants flee in
the last few weeks. More than half a million civilians have now been uprooted in
the course of the offensive. The United Nations says hundreds of civilians have
been killed in the violence, which has resulted in large scale destruction of
civilian areas.
UN to ‘facilitate’ evacuations from Syria
desert camp
AFP, Beirut/Friday, 30 August 2019
The United Nations said Friday it will help evacuate civilians from an “abysmal”
Syrian desert camp near the border with Jordan, after a mission last week
determined who wanted to leave. “We are ready to facilitate” evacuations from
the Rukban camp, said Panos Moumtzis, the UN’s Syria humanitarian chief.
“We want to make sure it happens in a voluntary way,” he told AFP during an
interview in Beirut, describing the situation in the camp as “abysmal.”
According to the UN official, around 12,700 people remain in the isolated Rukban
camp near a base used by the US-led coalition fighting ISIS.
The Syrian government and key backer Russia said in February they had opened
corridors out of the camp, calling on residents to leave. More than half of the
original population has left in the past months, the United Nations says. The UN
and the Syrian Arab Red Crescent sent a mission to the camp last week to
determine how many people remained inside and who wanted to leave, the UN
official said. Also read: UN official says over 100,000 detained and missing in
Syria.,.“A little bit more than a third of them want to leave,” Moumtzis said.
“The vast majority want to go into government-held areas and some others want to
go to the north,” held by the opposition, he added. But the UN is not able to
provide protection guarantees after civilians quit the camp, he said. Some 47
percent of surveyed camp residents said they wanted to stay, citing reasons
including “security concerns” and “fear of detention.” Rights groups have warned
that civilians returning to government-held territory have faced detention and
conscription. Those fleeing to the opposition-held north might face violence in
the Idlib region, where Russian and regime bombardment has killed more than 950
people since April. Also read: UN: More than 400,000 people displaced in 3
months in northwest Syria Although Rukban has not received aid since February,
the latest UN mission did not deliver any relief items beyond “a minimal number
of health supplies”, Moumtzis said. But last week’s visit is only the first part
of a “two-step” plan -- the second of which will involve aid delivery, according
to the UN official. “The next mission -- I hope very quickly -- will go back and
deliver the desperately needed assistance,” he said, without providing a
specific date.
Conditions inside Rukban are dire, with many surviving on just one simple meal a
day, often bread and olive oil or yogurt, according to one resident.
Russia says Syrian army will unilaterally cease fire in
Idlib on August 31
Reuters, Moscow/Friday, 30 August 2019
Syrian government forces will unilaterally cease fire in the de-escalation zone
in Syria’s Idlib region on Saturday morning, Russia’s defense ministry was
quoted by TASS news agency as saying on Friday. The ministry also urged armed
militant groups in the region to join the ceasefire, according to Interfax news
agency. Russia has been the Syrian government’s most powerful supporter in its
eight-year-long war with the Syrian opposition.
UN envoy hopes for Syria constitution committee next month
The Associated Press, United Nations/Friday, 30 August 2019
The UN special envoy for Syria said on Thursday he is “quietly hopeful” the
United Nations can announce agreement to launch a Syrian constitutional
committee before world leaders gather in late September, which could open the
door to a broader political process to end the eight-year conflict.
Geir Pedersen told the Security Council that the package to resolve outstanding
names and terms of reference and rules of procedure “is nearly finalized, and
the outstanding differences are, in my assessment, comparatively minor.”Looking
at Syria today, he painted a grim picture of a country with large areas
fragmented between different parties and called the scale of violence and
instability “extremely alarming.”He cited an ever-rising death toll, millions
displaced, “untold tens of thousands detained or missing,” a resurgent ISIS
extremist group stepping up guerrilla attacks - and no real political process
yet.
Pedersen criticized the Syrian government offensive in the last rebel-held
stronghold in Idlib in northwest Syria that began in late April and has led to
escalating casualties and massive displacement. He also said attacks by
terrorist groups, which the government says it is targeting, must cease. “But
counter-terrorism cannot put 3 million civilians at risk who have a right to
protection” under international law,” Pedersen said.
“The actions that are killing and displacing them must stop now,” he said. “The
situation in Idlib needs a predominantly political solution.”UN humanitarian
chief Mark Lowcock said more than 500 civilians have been killed and many
hundreds injured since the government offensive began. UN health and children’s
agencies report that 43 health facilities, 87 educational facilities, 29 water
stations and seven markets have been affected by the fighting, he said.
UN-supported systems have also recorded the movement of 576,000 displaced people
since May, between three and four times the figure recorded during violence in
Eastern Ghouta last year, Lowcock said. “Many of these people are living in the
open air, frequently protected only by a plastic sheet,” he said.
Russia’s deputy UN ambassador, Dmitry Polyansky, whose country is a close ally
of Syrian President Bashar Assad, said Syria wouldn’t be facing “these terrible
problems and the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people” without “the
terrorists” and efforts by Western powers to overthrow the government.
Syrian Ambassador Bashar Ja’afari told the council that his government and
Russia “do not attack civilian targets” - only “terrorists.”He also denied there
are 3 million Syrians in Idlib, calling it a small province whose population has
now surpassed a million. Polyansky said Moscow is taking “active measures to
promote the political process” and is optimistic the preparations for a
constitutional committee will soon be completed. “A lot has already been done,”
he said. “Any confrontational or unbalanced discussions, including within the
UN, will not help the progress towards a political settlement in Syria.”
Pedersen said there is “a strong understanding” between Syria’s government and
opposition that there be two equal co-chairmen of the constitutional committee,
one from each side. He said there is also such a view about “a 75 percent voting
threshold while striving for consensus” on constitutional provisions as well as
having a large group of 150 members and a small one of 45 members.He said the
Russian and Turkish governments “have been of particular assistance,” and he
told the council he is ready to return to Damascus in the very near future “as
part of completing the work.” He said he also appreciates the strong support
from the US and several European and Arab countries as well as the European
Union.
International players need to deepen their dialogue and support the
UN-facilitated process, he said. It’s also time for the three countries in the
Astana process - Russia, Turkey and Iran - and the so-called Small Group
comprising Egypt, France, Germany, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom, and
the United States to come together “in a very practical way,” Pedersen said.
Meanwhile, a draft Security Council resolution focused on the humanitarian
impact of the conflict has been circulated by Belgium, Germany and Kuwait.
Belgium’s UN ambassador, Marc Pecsteen de Buytswerve, told the council that the
resolution is in response to the escalating fighting and deteriorating
humanitarian situation in Idlib and will call for a cease-fire, respect for
international humanitarian law and humanitarian access.
Iranian tanker Adrian Darya again says it will go to Turkey
The Associated Press, Dubai /Friday, 30 August 2019
An Iranian oil tanker pursued by the US now again says it is en route to Turkey.
The crew of the Adrian Darya 1, formerly known as the Grace 1, changed its
listed destination in its Automatic Identification System to Iskenderun, Turkey,
on Friday. However, mariners can input any destination into the AIS, so Turkey
may not be its true destination. Previously, the ship said it would head to
Mersin, Turkey, before subsequently removing that destination. The Adrian Darya
was held for weeks off Gibraltar after being seized by authorities there on
suspicion of violating EU sanctions on oil sales to Syria.
The US has a warrant in federal court to seize the ship and has been warning
nations not to accept it.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on August 30-31/2019
French and Iranian masks slip with G7 trap
Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/August 30/2019
Early in my Washington career, I met with a very senior German official to
discuss Europe’s (correct) objections to America’s determination to instigate
the Iraq War. Polished, charming and vaguely condescending, the policymaker
disarmingly suggested that all Europe wanted was for the US to talk to its
allies before acting. I saw through this obvious ruse for what it was, blandly
replying: “Do you want to talk, or do you want to have a veto over our use of
our own army?” Nonplussed at being caught out, the statesmen ended our
conversation, for of course what he wanted was to turn “talking” (endless
negotiations) into power over American decision-making.
This has been declining Europe’s playbook now for a generation, making a fetish
out of diplomacy — talking for talking’s sake — as a subterranean way to stop
its stronger American ally from acting, for good or ill.
In French President Emmanuel Macron, we can see a late flowering of this
particular sort of European diplomat. Poised, confident, charming, driven and
utterly assured of his correctness, Macron has tried to play his country’s
relatively poor diplomatic cards with skill.
In the case of the Iranian nuclear crisis, it is little secret to anyone that
the Elysee Palace (as well as Berlin) sees President Donald Trump’s policy of
“maximum pressure” as the greatest threat to peace in the Middle East, precisely
because the policy has been demonstrably successful in driving the already
mismanaged Iranian economy to its knees, imperiling the sacred (to European
eyes) 2015 nuclear accord with Tehran, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Accordingly, Macron laid his diplomatic trap at the G7 meeting he has just
finished hosting in the south of France. Seemingly unbeknownst to the Americans,
the French president invited a secret guest to the conclave: Iranian Foreign
Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif, a key signatory of the JCPOA. Having Zarif there
allowed Macron the possibility of shuttling between the American and Iranian
camps, placing his stamp on any possible agreement.
Dangling the enticing carrot of a diplomatic breakthrough, Macron noted that
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Trump are both scheduled to be at the UN
General Assembly in New York in mid-September. All that was needed to get these
“historic” talks was for a few simple terms to be agreed.
Of course, as ever in diplomacy, the devil is in the detail. Here Macron’s mask
slipped, revealing the game he was playing, which was to return the world to the
balmy JCPOA days of Barack Obama, making Trump reverse his highly successful,
and highly disruptive, policy toward Iran.
French officials ingratiatingly briefed a willing press corps that the terms
would roughly involve US-Iranian talks being restarted once the US agreed to a
partial rollback of its sanctions in return for full Iranian compliance with the
JCPOA. While this is an exact shopping list of all Europe’s desires regarding
the conflict, it also amounts to a terrible deal for the US, as it is precisely
the White House’s maximum pressure campaign that has finally put the economic
screws to Tehran.
It is precisely the White House’s maximum pressure campaign that has finally put
the economic screws to Tehran.
But the president did not bite. While he agreed to whittle down the US
conditions that Iran had to meet for talks to proceed from the prior 12 to just
three — Iran must not be allowed to possess an active nuclear weapons program,
must have real limits on its ballistic missiles, and must agree to an extension
of the time frames in the JCPOA (presently many of the provisions expire in
2030) so Tehran cannot simply wait the rest of the world out — Trump wisely did
not take the bait.
At the press conference ending the G7 summit, Macron pressed, saying he hoped
that Trump and Rouhani would soon have direct talks. Trump responded, saying it
was “too soon” for such a meeting. The maximum pressure policy, which has been
so successful in denting Iranian economic power, remains in place. But, if the
French mask slipped at the end of the G7 meeting, so too did that of Iran. Last
Monday, playing along with Paris, Rouhani seemingly benignly noted that both
sides “shouldn’t miss an opportunity” for engagement, endorsing the old European
tactic of agreeing to negotiations in return for others making concessions.
Furiously backpedaling in the face of Trump’s polite refusal, Rouhani showed his
true face to the world, saying that the president must first lift all sanctions
on Iran before Tehran will deign to speak with him.
For both Macron and Rouhani — for their own very different reasons — this has
always been about curtailing the highly effective American policy of maximum
pressure toward Iran. Its critics should keep in mind that, if America’s
regional rival is so against what the White House is doing, it stands to reason
that the US is on precisely the right track in balancing against Iranian
delusions of grandeur in the Middle East.
*Dr. John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman
Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consulting firm. He is also
senior columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the City of London. He can be
contacted via www.chartwellspeakers.com.
Why Russia shouldn’t be allowed back into the G7
Luke Coffey/Arab News/August 30/2019
In 2014 Russia was kicked out of the G8 for its invasion of Ukraine and the
subsequent occupation of Crimea. The illegal annexation of Crimea was the first
time since World War II that borders in Europe had been changed by the use of
military force. For the other members of the G8, it was simply too much to allow
Russia sitting at the same table of an organization that’s meant to be of
like-minded democracies. The G8 became the G7.
The G7 consists of seven of the world’s advanced industrialized economies
—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US. What they have in
common is that they are all democracies and, without Russia, they are linked in
some form or another by defense and security treaties. The countries of the G7
are not the world’s seven largest economies — China is not a member — but when
combined these seven countries account for 50 percent of global wealth.
Russia first joined the G8 in 1997. This was at a time when Boris Yeltsin was
still in power and Western relations with Russia looked promising. Since
President Vladimir Putin ascended to power in 1999, relations between Russia and
the other members of the G8 have ebbed and flowed, but have generally been on a
downward trajectory. At almost every opportunity, he has pursued polices that
undermine the interests of the other seven members.
Since being expelled from the bloc, and in an attempt to weather western
economic sanctions, Russia has been forced to look elsewhere. Moscow has been
cozying up to Beijing, looking to China to offset some of the economic activity
lost through western economic sanctions. Major infrastructure projects in
eastern Siberia and in the Arctic have greatly benefited from Chinese
investment. However, this is not a satisfactory solution to Russia’s problems as
Moscow knows that it needs China more than China needs it. China also knows very
well that its newly found investment opportunities in Russia and in Central Asia
(a region until recently in Russia’s implicit sphere of influence) helps to
advance its Belt and Road Initiative. So China is happy to go along.
If Russia wants to be seriously considered for readmission to the G7, it should
use the upcoming talks to announce a series of measures pertaining to Ukraine.
In the run-up to the recent G7 meeting in Biarritz, in France, President Trump
suggested that Russia should be allowed to re-join the grouping. Speaking to
reporters at the summit President Trump said “I think it would be an asset to
have Russia back in. I think it would be good for the world, I think it would be
good for Russia, I think it would be good for the United States, I think it
would be good for all of the countries in the G7.”
It would be incredibly naive and geopolitically inept to allow Russia back into
the grouping at this time.
Next month, officials from Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine will meet again
to hold further peace talks. This is part of the so-called Normandy format which
has met off and on since June 2014, but has failed to deliver any concrete
results to bring the fighting in Ukraine to an end.
If Russia wants to be seriously considered for readmission to the G7, it should
use the upcoming talks to announce a series of measures pertaining to Ukraine.
First, Russia must fully restore Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory.
This includes the Crimean peninsula and the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.
From these two regions, Russia must remove all of its troops, mercenaries, and
security officials.
In addition, before rejoining the G7 Russia should develop a plan to pay full
compensation and economic reparations to Ukraine for its actions since 2014. At
the time of occupation, Crimea accounted for 4 percent of Ukraine’s gross
domestic product.
Other things Russia should do include releasing the almost 70 Ukrainian
political prisoners and the 24 Ukrainian sailors who are being held in Russian
custody, formally apologizing to the Crimean Tatars for their treatment under
the occupation, and acknowledging responsibility for the downing of Malaysia
Airlines Flight 17 in July 2014, suitably compensating the families of the 298
people from 17 countries killed in the incident.
In addition to Russia’s indiscretions in Ukraine, Moscow should also prove that
it can be a constructive partner in other regions of the world where there is
turmoil. One shouldn’t forget that it is Russia that continues to prop up brutal
leaders such as Bashar Assad in Syria and Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela — both of
whom only prolong the suffering of the people living their respective countries.
In many ways Russia is more geopolitically isolated than ever. Its relationship
with China is incredibly lopsided in favor of Beijing. Moscow curries favor with
pariah states such as North Korea, Iran, Syria, and Venezuela. Russian-backed
multilateral organizations such as the Eurasian Economic Union have failed to
deliver any substantial benefits to Russia. President Putin is suffering from
low approval ratings, a stagnant economy and a constant drumbeat of civil unrest
that has recently manifested itself in major protests in Moscow.
The G7 is an organization that allows like-minded democracies to work together
to tackle many of the world’s major problems. Putin has not demonstrated that he
can be a trusted partner, and President Trump is wrong to say that Russia should
be allowed back in the club at this time.
If Russia does change its ways in Ukraine and drops its support for brutal
leaders like Assad, then perhaps Moscow’s membership can be reconsidered.
Russia is a proud country. For better or for worse, it has a history of being at
the center of global affairs. But it can only re-enter the G7 once it
demonstrates that it is a responsible and collegiate actor on the international
stage.
Sadly, for the Russian people this is unlikely to occur while Putin is in power.
*Luke Coffey is director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign
Policy at the Heritage Foundation. Twitter: @LukeDCoffey
Actions speak louder than words for Erdogan, Putin
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/August 30/2019
In diplomatic meetings, body language can play a more important role than the
leaders’ carefully chosen words. This was the case in this week’s meeting
between the presidents of Turkey and Russia.
Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid a one-day visit to Moscow on the invitation
of his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in light of the rising tensions in
Syria. While all eyes were fixed on the developments in Idlib and to the east of
the Euphrates, and how this could affect the delicate cooperation between Ankara
and Moscow through the Astana peace process, the two leaders came together in a
show of strength at a significant venue.
In recent years, Putin and Erdogan have met more often than most foreign
leaders. This time, they met on the sidelines of an important aviation and space
fair, MAKS 2019, where the newest products of the Russian defense industry are
being exhibited. Both leaders attended the event’s inauguration ceremony and
posed for an image of unity and cordiality. During the fair, Putin introduced
the latest developments in Russian aviation and space industries, including the
Su-57 and Su-35 fighter jets, Ka-52 attack helicopter, Mi-38 heavy helicopter
and Ka-62 medium helicopter. He also underlined that Erdogan was the first
foreign leader to see Russia’s “most perfect aircraft.”
With both leaders being aware that their body language counts for a lot, an
interesting conversation took place between them. Erdogan, hinting at buying the
Su-57 — a cutting-edge fighter plane meant to become Moscow’s alternative to the
American F-35 — asked if it was for sale. Putin replied, “You can buy it,” and
then both leaders laughed out loud in front of the cameras. The framing of the
two leaders in front of a Russian Su-57 was intentional. It was not difficult to
understand that this show by the two leaders was a clear and firm message to
Western capitals, particularly Washington. This show of strength was not a
surprise when considering the tension in Turkish-US relations over Syria and the
defense industry.
Although the main reason for Erdogan and Putin to meet was expected to be Syria,
the venue for the meeting was quite meaningful and shifted attention to the
cooperation between the two countries’ defense industries. After the leaders
examined the aircraft, they held a closed-door meeting for more than an hour,
followed by a joint news conference.
This show by the two leaders was a clear and firm message to Western capitals,
particularly Washington.
Two other interesting incidents dominated the meeting. First was the Russian
space agency’s offer to Erdogan to send a Turkish astronaut to the International
Space Station (ISS). Second was when both leaders, who called each other “dear
friend and brother,” enjoyed a selection of vanilla and chocolate ice cream
bought by Putin at a local stand. Maxim Suchkov, an expert on Russian affairs,
described the meeting by saying: “The ice cream was the only thing Erdogan got
for free in Moscow: Other things he had to either pay for, bargain over or
concede.”
Needless to say, Turkish-Russian relations are growing in the fields of energy
and defense; however, regarding Syria, the two countries still sit on opposite
sides of the table. Despite pressure on this relationship emanating from Syria,
the pattern of Ankara-Moscow ties is unlikely to change any time soon. That is
because a determined pragmatism, mutual energy and defense interests, and the
balance of common threats are at the heart of this relationship. The past 10
years, which have seen many ups and downs in their bilateral ties, have made
both sides experienced in navigating the pressure waves that could shake this
relationship.
Russia, by inviting the leader of a NATO country to MAKS 2019, conveyed a
significant message to the world. Erdogan, meanwhile, with his attendance at the
opening ceremony of the defense industry fair, once again showed to his NATO
allies that Turkey is not without alternatives. This meeting was particularly
symbolic as it took place at the same time as the second shipment of the Russian
S-400 missile defense system was being delivered to Turkey. Erdogan will once
again meet Putin, along with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, at a trilateral
summit in Ankara on Sept. 16 as part of the Astana peace process. Needless to
say, this upcoming meeting will also be another chance for actions to speak
louder than the usual cliched words.
*Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s
relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz
The flaw in Trump’s maximum pressure campaign toward Iran
دينيس روس ودانا سترول/ واشنطن بوست/ العيوب في حملة الضغط القصوى لترامب تجاه
إيران
Dennis Ross and Dana Stroul/The Washington Post/August 30/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/78017/%d8%af%d9%8a%d9%86%d9%8a%d8%b3-%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b3-%d9%88%d8%af%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%a7-%d8%b3%d8%aa%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%84-%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%b4%d9%86%d8%b7%d9%86-%d8%a8%d9%88%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d9%8a/
The Trump administration says its maximum-pressure campaign on Iran is working.
If only that were true.
The administration has consistently made the argument that economic sanctions
would deprive the Iranian regime of money and that less money would mean less
bad behavior and more concessions at the negotiating table.
Bargaining with Iran is not the same as a closing a real estate deal, however,
and Iran-sponsored terrorism is not easily reduced to counting dollars and
cents. Less of one does not necessarily correlate to less of the other.
The inescapable conclusion, after surveying the region’s conflicts, is that a
U.S. strategy based exclusively on starving Tehran of money cannot by itself
compel changes in Iran’s regional behavior.
In Syria, Iran-backed Shiite militia groups may be suffering from salary cuts,
but less take-home pay has not led to a reduction in violence, a reversal in
battlefield gains by the regime of Bashar al-Assad, or a willingness by these
foreign groups or Iranian forces to leave Syria. Militia fighters willing to
travel to Syria from Afghanistan, Pakistan or Iraq will continue to answer
Tehran’s call because of ideology or the abysmal economic conditions in their
own countries.
Despite an announcement in March by Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah,
which called for donations from supporters to replace revenue lost to sanctions,
Hezbollah has not called home its fighters from Syria. Nor has the group
diverted funding from its missile arsenal threatening Israel in southern Lebanon
or from digging terror tunnels. Israeli strikes in Lebanon over the weekend
targeting the fabrication of missile components reinforce the point that
economic pressure alone is not preventing Tehran from trying to put precision
targeting capabilities on tens of thousands of Hezbollah rockets.
In Yemen, Iran-supported Houthi fighters are intensifying the pace and
sophistication of attacks against Saudi Arabia. Houthi ballistic-missile and
drone attacks against civilian airports, oil pipelines and pumping stations in
Saudi Arabia continue, with attacks now even in the eastern part of the kingdom.
The evidence suggests that Iran is transforming its relationship with the
Houthis from one of limited support in a local dispute to a regional
partnership.
Sanctions pressure does not always equate to less Iranian cash for terrorism. In
Gaza, Iran is reportedly increasing funding to Hamas from $70 million each year
to $30 million each month, which is separate from the money it is giving Islamic
Jihad.
Testifying to Congress in June, Brian Hook, the U.S. special representative for
Iran, argued that U.S. sanctions have led to cuts in Iran’s military budget in
2018 and again in 2019. But these purported budget reductions did not translate
into reduced threats in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year, when Iran
attacked with mines, attempted to seize commercial vessels and shot down a U.S.
drone. The Pentagon is not counting on the maximum-pressure campaign to reduce
Iran’s military aggression; this month, it issued a year-long warning of Iranian
“aggressive actions” in the gulf region.
Hook also noted that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ cyber command is low
on cash. Yet a pair of cybersecurity firms pointed to Iran this year as the
nexus in a wave of cyberattacks targeting government, telecommunications and
Internet infrastructure entities.
Taken together, the fact pattern does not back up the Trump line that the
maximum-pressure campaign is working. Well before the 2015 nuclear deal, Tehran
had adopted a low-cost, asymmetric strategy because it cannot compete with the
large defense budgets and conventional military capabilities of the United
States, or of regional rivals such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Sanctions alone will not be effective when Iran intentionally executes its
regional terrorism campaign on the cheap.
A successful strategy toward Iran must be based on more than U.S.-imposed
sanctions. Political isolation is also necessary, along with the credible threat
of military force and readiness to offer Iran a way out of the economic pain and
way in from the political cold.
Unfortunately, President Trump has been far better at isolating the United
States than he has Iran. His administration has signaled in both statements and
actions its unwillingness to use military force except in the narrowest of
circumstances, creating a rift between the United States and its partners in the
gulf region. Maximum pressure alienated European allies who have been integral
to every other successful pressure approach imposed against Iran.
Taken together, these strategic missteps have emboldened Iran’s leaders. They
clearly don’t feel the need to talk to the administration, having turned down a
meeting at the White House for their foreign minister and conditioning any talks
on the administration lifting sanctions. And their attempt to use drones to
carry out a terrorist attack against Israel shows their willingness to take
risks.
History tells us that Iran will not be sanctioned into changing its behavior. A
successful policy of leverage comes from collective international pressure, the
prospect that negotiations can offer credible economic gains and the threat of
meaningful consequences for malign actions.
*Dennis Ross, a former special assistant to President Barack Obama, is the
counselor and William Davidson distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute.
Dana Stroul is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and previously a
senior staff member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee covering the
Middle East.
Is Iran Negotiating Its Way to Negotiations?
عمر كرمي/معهد واشنطن: هل إيران تمهد طريقها للتفاوض
Omer Carmi/The Washington Institute/August 30/ 2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/78015/%d8%b9%d9%85%d8%b1-%d9%83%d8%b1%d9%85%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87%d8%af-%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%b4%d9%86%d8%b7%d9%86-%d9%87%d9%84-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%aa%d9%85%d9%87%d8%af-%d8%b7%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%82/
While Tehran’s internal debate about engagement with Washington intensifies, its
words and actions already seem to be shaping—even unintentionally—the terms of
any future talks.
This year’s G7 summit will be remembered for its startling dynamics regarding
the Iranian nuclear issue. At first, the gathering in Biarritz, France, seemed
to be the final act in President Emmanuel Macron’s efforts to mediate between
Tehran and Washington. Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif
surprisingly arrived on August 25 in the midst of the summit; the next day,
President Hassan Rouhani stated, “If I knew that going to a meeting and visiting
a person would help my country’s development and resolve the problems of the
people, I would not miss it”—apparently a reference to possible talks with
President Trump. Since then, however, Iranian officials have issued statements
and preconditions signaling that Western governments may need to do more before
Tehran will reopen negotiations.
ONE STEP FORWARD, TWO STEPS BACK
In an August 26 joint press conference following the summit, Macron noted that
while “nothing is set in stone,” a lot of work has already been done to bring
Tehran and Washington back to the table, and a “roadmap has sort of been set.”
Specifically, he has told Rouhani and Zarif that if they accept a meeting with
Trump, perhaps “in the next few weeks,” then “an agreement can be met.” He added
that the international community would first need to compensate Iran
economically, for example by providing “lines of credit” or reopening certain
economic sectors. During his own remarks alongside Macron, Trump expressed his
readiness to meet with Rouhani “if the circumstances were correct,” and
emphasized that Iran desperately needs such talks because U.S. sanctions have
deteriorated its economic situation.
The positive press conference ignited speculation that a presidential summit
might take place at the UN General Assembly meetings beginning mid-September.
Yet such optimism was premature. Less than twenty-four hours after the G7 summit
ended, Iranian officials took a step back. Zarif dismissed the possibility of
any meetings with U.S. officials unless Washington returns to the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), while Rouhani stated that removing
sanctions is a prerequisite to negotiations.
The same narrative was repeated on August 29, when the weekly magazine of
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s office published an open letter to Rouhani and
Zarif titled “Negotiations with the U.S. are definitely out of the question.”
The editorial emphasized the importance of power manifestation in international
relations, arguing that those who believe negotiations are the only option to
solve Iran’s problems fail to understand that talks do not serve the national
interest unless the republic’s power is “in a good shape.” The article then
declared that no talks will be held on the sidelines of the UN meetings, since
“negotiating with the U.S. has clearly shown that it doesn’t serve Iran’s
interests.” Although Khamenei himself has not publicly spoken since the G7
summit, his office’s editorials usually express his line of thought. This
narrative was later promoted by major Iranian media outlets, some of which
tweeted a year-old video of Khamenei asserting that negotiations with the
Americans are meaningless because U.S. presidents are only interested in showing
that they have dragged Iran to the negotiating table.
INTERNAL CONFLICT OR REACTION TO TRUMP?
The inconsistencies in Tehran’s response may seem confusing at first glance. Yet
they likely indicate that the regime is in the midst of an internal debate about
whether and how to pursue new discussions with Washington. This debate could in
turn wind up shaping the framework of the talks themselves.
Ever since the Trump administration withdrew from the JCPOA last year, Khamenei
has repeatedly lashed out at Rouhani and Zarif, intensifying the perpetual
conflict between the president’s “moderate” camp and the Supreme Leader’s
conservative camp. In particular, he has accused them of being fooled by the
Americans during the nuclear negotiations, arguing that Iran should not have
trusted the Obama administration or held talks with Washington in the first
place. Accordingly, Khamenei may not have been fully aware that Zarif’s G7
overture would turn into a high-profile effort to resume talks.
Whatever the case, once news broke of Trump’s positive reaction to a possible
meeting, the Supreme Leader seemed to push back against Iranian “peacemakers.”
This would hardly be the first time he has reined in an engagement plan led by
one of his presidents. In 2009, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad agreed in
principle to a proposal by the United States, France, and Russia to ship out
nearly 80 percent of Iran’s low-enriched uranium in exchange for reactor fuel.
When details of the agreement went public, however, Khamenei scuttled it,
warning that U.S. negotiators were “hiding a dagger behind their backs.”
Tehran’s latest reversal might also stem from President’s Trump narrative that
Iran will soon be compelled to enter negotiations out of weakness. Such rhetoric
tends to be a red flag for the regime’s leadership, since it plays on the weak
spots in their never-ending battle to maintain domestic legitimacy and prevents
them from saving face. On August 28, for example, Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas
Araqchi declared that “no country under pressure will negotiate,” since doing so
would be more like a surrender than a real discussion. Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps chief Hossein Salami reiterated this idea a day later, claiming that
“the enemy” seeks to pressure Iran into surrender and force it to enter
negotiations.
IRAN’S CURRENT STRATEGY
Whatever happened behind the scenes in Tehran this week, a few things have
become clear about the regime’s latest strategy and its potential implications
for future talks. First, Iran has been steadily working to open channels for
conveying messages to President Trump via his trusted international partners,
most prominently Macron and President Shinzo Abe of Japan. As Macron noted at
the G7 summit, these “mediators” may form part of a coalition of negotiators in
future discussions.
Second, Iran and Rouhani are setting a high threshold for reentering talks with
Washington, at least for the time being. To be sure, Tehran has shown in the
past that it can be flexible on such demands if needed. Yet stating firm
preconditions at the start can help Rouhani achieve two ends. On the domestic
front, it may appease some of its critics—including Khamenei—by reassuring them
that Iran will not take another risky leap forward without major American
concessions (i.e., removing sanctions and rejoining the JCPOA). On the
international front, tough preconditions may push the EU and other parties to
give Iran at least some economic concessions ahead of talks.
Indeed, Tehran has been playing the grievance card with the international
community over and over again since Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, with the main
goal of fully implementing the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX),
the European “special purpose vehicle” established earlier this year to
facilitate trade with Iran. According to Araqchi, Rouhani told Macron that
Europe needs to facilitate a mechanism allowing Tehran to sell oil, either by
obtaining waivers from Washington or providing “credit lines” that Iran can use
to buy goods in return for oil. Macron mentioned this theme in his G7 remarks.
Third, Iran is raising the hypothetical costs of the “no deal” scenario in order
to pressure Europe on expediting INSTEX and providing similar concessions. As
Araqchi explained on August 28, if Iran’s demands are not met, it will take more
steps to reduce its commitments under the JCPOA. The regime has already exceeded
the amount of low-enriched uranium it is permitted to store under the nuclear
deal, and increased its level of enrichment beyond 3.67 percent (see PolicyWatch
3126 for a fuller explanation of these technical issues). It is now threatening
to take another such step on September 6, though officials have yet to specify
what that might be.
As Iranian leaders move forward with this strategy while trying to cope with
growing economic difficulties, one key question stands out: do they truly
believe President Trump will waive major energy sanctions in an election year,
or are they making this extreme demand solely to prod Europe or America into
making lesser concessions on issues like INSTEX? The answer may determine
whether new talks are even feasible, never mind productive.
*Omer Carmi is vice president of intelligence at the Israeli cybersecurity firm
Sixgill. Previously, he was a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute and
led IDF analytical and research efforts pertaining to the Middle East.
Despite Talk of Trump-Rouhani Summit, Treasury Imposes New
Sanctions on Iran
Behnam Ben Taleblu/Foundation for Defense of Democracies/August 30/2019
Amidst reports of a potential summit between the U.S. and Iranian presidents,
the Treasury Department sanctioned two procurement networks this week for aiding
Tehran’s military and missile programs. These designations, the latest in a
steady series of penalties from Treasury, add another vector to the “maximum
pressure” campaign that has already inflicted substantial damage on Iran’s
economy while exposing its illicit conduct.
National Security Advisor John Bolton said this week that sanctions would be
lifted only after, not before, a comprehensive deal with Iran that addresses
terrorism and regional aggression, not just the nuclear issue. Under such an
accord, the U.S. should ease pressure on the persons and entities currently
tasked with improving Iran’s missile capabilities only when there is a
demonstrated change in their behavior. Rewarding anything less would be
tantamount to offering sanctions relief for a photo-op.
According to the Treasury Department, both procurement networks have ties to
sanctioned entities within Iran’s sprawling defense industry through a series of
front companies. Both the U.S. and EU currently maintain sanctions on various
companies that handle production and procurement for the Iranian defense sector
(although the EU sanctions are slated to terminate no later than 2023, as
required by the 2015 nuclear deal). Pursuant to Executive Order 13382, issued in
2005 to counter the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and related
delivery systems, Treasury added five Iranian persons and five companies (four
Iranian, one in Hong Kong) to the blacklist known as the Specially Designated
Nationals list. These entities are part of two groups to which Treasury refers
as the Dehqan and Shariat procurement networks.
The Dehqan network, led by Iranian nationals Hamed and Hadi Dehqan, facilitated
“more than ten million dollars’ worth of proliferation-related transactions” for
Tehran since 2017. The ultimate beneficiaries of their schemes were companies
with ties to Iran’s sanctioned Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as well as
those working to improve Iranian military aptitudes. Treasury noted that this
procurement network ran through Hong Kong, long a problematic jurisdiction in
Iran’s foreign supply chain for missile technology and components.
The Shariat network, led by Iranian national Seyed Hossein Shariat, “procured
large amounts of aluminum alloy products for multiple Iranian entities” that are
subordinate to Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics. Aluminum
alloy has numerous military applications, including, but not limited to seamless
tubes for missiles and rotors for centrifuges. Rolled sheets and plates can also
contribute to defense manufacturing. Aluminum alloy is a Nuclear Supplies
Group-controlled commodity, meaning it cannot be exported to Iran absent a prior
authorization by the UN Security Council, which was likely never sought.
The Iranian press has reported the sanctions imposed against these networks, but
has not confirmed or denied their ties to previously sanctioned entities.
While Iranian officials frequently claim that Iran’s diverse missile arsenal
draws on domestic resources and manufacturing capabilities, the regime continues
to rely on a host of foreign and illicit networks to procure materials and
technology, and sometimes even whole systems. This means that sanctions can have
both a qualitative effect by limiting the kinds of goods Iran procures abroad,
as well as a quantitative effect by slowing the pace of weapons production and
transactions related to such programs. If the Trump administration wants a
better deal with Iran than the 2015 nuclear accord, such penalties and pressure
must be grown.
* Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD), where he also contributes to FDD’s Center on Economic and
Financial Power (CEFP). Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CEFP. FDD is a
Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national
security and foreign policy.
Stop Indulging Javad Zarif/There’s nothing ‘moderate’ about
the Iranian foreign minister, who is now threatening our think tank.
مارك دوبويتز/ مؤسسة الدفاع عن الديمقراطية: كفاكم تدليعاً وتغنيجاً لجواد ظريف
الذي لا يعرف معنى الإعتدال ويهدد مؤسستنا
Mark Dubowitz/Foundation for Defense of Democracies/August 30/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/78019/%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%83-%d8%af%d9%88%d8%a8%d9%88%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%b2-%d9%85%d8%a4%d8%b3%d8%b3%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af%d9%81%d8%a7%d8%b9-%d8%b9%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af%d9%8a%d9%85%d9%82%d8%b1%d8%a7/
Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has often found itself on the regime’s
sidelines. To be sure, its diplomats have done their part: They tirelessly
distribute anti-American and anti-Semitic propaganda, provide diplomatic pouches
and logistical assistance to Iranian operatives, and deny and whitewash deadly
operations. Yet Westerners have usually been willing to exempt Iranian diplomats
from damning censure if they seem “moderate” in manner. Shaking a woman’s hand,
a smile, a bit of wit, a willingness to be in the presence of alcohol—Americans
and Europeans appreciate it when Islamists behave.
That forgiving disposition has never been more egregiously on display than in
the way Western VIPs treat Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, who has proved a
faithful factotum of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a handmaiden to terrorism.
Typical was Mr. Zarif’s response to French accusations that a thwarted bombing
of an Iranian opposition group’s large June 2018 rally in a Paris suburb had
been planned in Tehran. Mr. Zarif claimed the regime “unequivocally condemns all
violence and terror anywhere, and is ready to work with all concerned to uncover
what is a sinister false flag ploy.” This after an Iranian intelligence officer
under diplomatic cover had been arrested for complicity and European security
officials pinpointed the Internal Security Directorate of the Iranian
Intelligence Ministry as headquarters for the operation.
Now we find ourselves in Mr. Zarif’s sights. The Foreign Ministry declared on
Saturday that the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and Mark Dubowitz
personally, are guilty of “designing, imposing and intensifying the impacts of
economic terrorism against Iran” and “seriously and actively trying to harm the
Iranian people’s security and vital interests through measures such as
fabricating and spreading lies, encouraging, providing consultations, lobbying,
and launching a smear campaign.” FDD is “subject to the penalties that are
allowed by the ‘Law on Countering the Violation of Human Rights and Adventurous
and Terrorist Activities of the United States in the Region.’ ” On Wednesday,
the Iranian Foreign Ministry threatened sanctions against people of “various
nationalities who are “working with FDD.” It declared that “this foundation is
in fact the designing and executing arm of the U.S. administration.”
The penalties are unspecified, but the ministry’s first statement adds:
“Needless to say this measure will be without prejudice to any further legal
measures that the other administrative, judicial or security institutions and
organizations may take in order to counter, prosecute or punish the
above-mentioned persons or their other Iranian and non-Iranian collaborators and
accomplices.” We don’t think Mr. Zarif plans to sue FDD or send a letter to
Interpol. Technically, according to the law cited against us, Mr. Zarif has
already coordinated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran’s
Intelligence Ministry in developing sanctions against FDD.
The Islamic Republic isn’t the first dictatorship to try to intimidate think
tanks and scholars. And Mr. Zarif is hardly an all-powerful figure at home. We
suspect his decision to threaten FDD was to show some revolutionary rectitude to
those in the ruling elite who aren’t enamored of him. Many are angered by his
failure to understand the American political system, which knocked down
President Obama’s nuclear deal.
Mr. Zarif and President Hassan Rouhani had sold that accord as a victory: In
exchange for short-term, limited nuclear constraints, the West would lift
sanctions and Tehran would gain immediate access to tens of billions of dollars
in hard currency and longer-term access to global markets worth hundreds of
billions. Ali Akbar Salehi, Iran’s MIT-educated nuclear guru, well understood
the enormous nuclear concessions Washington was making in the agreement, but Mr.
Zarif didn’t understand America and the nature, depth and bipartisan politics of
U.S. sanctions against Tehran.
Since 1979, Democrats and Republicans alike have been confronting and engaging
Iran’s theocracy. If Mr. Khamenei wants Mr. Zarif as his foreign minister, the
U.S. will deal with Mr. Zarif. But it’s long past time for the Washington
foreign-policy community to stop indulging him. Think tanks and other
nongovernmental organizations should stop giving him a podium and refrain from
their see-no-evil, unofficial “Track II” diplomacy with Iranian emissaries.
We remain hopeful. Although many on the left have defended FDD on Twitter and in
the press, for which we are grateful, we haven’t yet seen their dismay focus on
the foreign minister. Too many desperately want a moderate alternative within
the Islamic Republic. They are anxious to avoid war and to thwart President
Trump. So they bend the truth about Messrs. Zarif and Rouhani.
But the foreign minister isn’t their ally or a world-wise fallen revolutionary
quietly trying to advance pragmatism. Real Iranian moderates got stuffed in the
1990s, when the regime beat the Iranian left senseless. Mr. Zarif was then on
the regime’s side, where he has steadfastly remained. When an Iranian foreign
minister threatens an American think tank engaged in national-security research,
analysis and policy recommendations, common sense ought to sound a warning.
Suzanne Maloney of the left-leaning Brookings Institution tweeted that “all
academic and research organizations should seriously reassess their engagement
with Iranian government institutions.” Radioactive conspiracies aren’t the other
side of thoughtful diplomacy. They are sometimes lethal.
*Mr. Dubowitz is chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Mr. Gerecht is a senior fellow at FDD.