LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
August 04/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
I tell you, if two of you agree on earth about anything you ask, it will be
done for you by my Father in heaven. For where two or three are gathered in my
name, I am there among them
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew
18/15-20:”‘If another member of the church sins against you, go and point out
the fault when the two of you are alone. If the member listens to you, you have
regained that one. But if you are not listened to, take one or two others along
with you, so that every word may be confirmed by the evidence of two or three
witnesses. If the member refuses to listen to them, tell it to the church; and
if the offender refuses to listen even to the church, let such a one be to you
as a Gentile and a tax-collector. Truly I tell you, whatever you bind on earth
will be bound in heaven, and whatever you loose on earth will be loosed in
heaven. Again, truly I tell you, if two of you agree on earth about anything you
ask, it will be done for you by my Father in heaven. For where two or three are
gathered in my name, I am there among them.”
’Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News published on August 03-04/2019
Port of Beirut & Hezbollah
Lebanese politicians and head of parties have cowardly succumbed to Hezbollah
Riad Salameh deems talk about Lebanon being threatened with bankruptcy
'unjustified'
Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh: Lira Stable, Talk of Bankruptcy Risk
Unjustified
ISF Intelligence Branch Reportedly Says 'No Ambush' in Qabrshmoun
PSP Says May Quit Govt., Arslan Allies Also Say Ready to Resign
Cautious Calm in Ain el-Hilweh after Islamist Group Routed
Lebanese President Asks Hariri to End Cabinet Paralysis
Terre Liban" Association: We invite municipalities of Beirut and Mount Lebanon
to participate in our proposal on solid household waste management
Bou Saab from Koura: Differences possible in politics but must not reach
hostility
Abdallah says demands for 'Justice Council' aim at political extortion
Jreissati from Zahle: We are part of a project, not special calculations
Finance Minister requests suspension of MTC building purchase decision
Shiite Council: August 12 first Adha Day
Kataeb MP Nadim Gemayel: Presidential Letter Is an Outbidding and Display of
Power
Analysis/Hezbollah Turning Syria Villages on Israel Border Into Fortresses
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on August 03-04/2019
'Multiple fatalities' after shooting at El Paso Walmart in Texas/USA
New Round of U.S.-Taliban Talks Opens in Doha
U.S. Says Wants to Quickly Deploy New Missiles in Asia
4 Dead, Many Hurt after Powerful Quake Rocks Indonesia
Sudan Generals, Protest Leaders Agree Constitutional Declaration
Tunisia Presidential Hopefuls Line Up for September Polls
Russian Opposition to Take to Streets Again, Defying Crackdown
Hong Kong Protesters Seize Roads and Tunnel in Defiance of China Warnings
Erdogan Lays Stone for Modern Turkey's First New Church
Palestinian Labor in Lebanon: Economic, Sectarian Considerations
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on August 03-04/2019
Port of Beirut & Hezbollah/Dr. Walid Phares/August 04/2019
Lebanese politicians and head of parties have cowardly succumbed to
Hezbollah/Elias Bejjani/August 04/2019
Analysis/Hezbollah Turning Syria Villages on Israel Border Into Fortresses/Amos
Harel/Haartz/August 03/2019
France Slowly Sinking into Chaos/Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/August 03/2019
Four Exciting Years in Saudi Arabia/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al Awsat/August
03/2019
UK Must Back US in Tougher Stance Against Iran/Daniel Kawczynski/Asharq Al Awsat/August
03/2019
Qatar’s Constant Attempts to Sow Discord between Riyadh, Abu Dhabi/Abdulrahman
Al-Rashed/Asharq Al Awsat/August 03/2019
Tehran could push Europe closer to the US if it continues its provocation/Raghida
Dergham/The National/August 03/2019
Nigeria has no answer after 10 years of Boko Haram/Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab
News/August 03, 2019
The arms race has new legs/Cornelia Meyer//Arab News/August 03/2019
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News published
on August 03-04/2019
Port of Beirut & Hezbollah
Dr. Walid Phares/August 04/2019
Hezbollah must evacuate the Port of Beirut.
Will they do so by themselves? No
Will the Government evacuate them? No
So it will have to be the Lebanese people. Will they do it? No, the politicians
won't let them do it
Then would it be the international community? Too busy
How about the US? Washington need a request by the Lebanese Government and or by
political leaders. Will they ask for it? No, of course.
So Hezbollah is staying in the Port of Beirut, for now.
Lebanese politicians and head of parties have cowardly
succumbed to Hezbollah
Elias Bejjani/August 04/2019
Sadly all our Lebanese politicians and head of parties have cowardly succumbed
to Hezbollah and instead of struggling to liberate the county they are
distracted, derailed and fighting each other fiercely for personal marginalized
gains and positions. Meanwhile all of them with no shame cajole and appease
Hezbollah and hail its Terrorism and occupation. There is hope in any of them.
Riad Salameh deems talk
about Lebanon being threatened with bankruptcy 'unjustified'
NNA - Sat 03 Aug 2019
Central Bank Governor, Riad Salameh, commented Saturday morning from Bkirki, on
some Lebanese newspaper published news that Lebanon is on the brink of a
financial collapse, saying : "Talking about Lebanon as a country threatened with
bankruptcy is unjustified scientifically and by numbers." Salameh’s words came
during his participation in the works of the Bkirki Socio-Economic Forum which
continued for its second day running, in the presence of Maronite Patriarch
Cardinal Bechara Butros al-Rahi. In his delivered word at the Forum, Salameh
assured that the Lebanese Lira is in a “stable condition”. “As a Central Bank,
we consider that the way out of the current status quo necessitates efforts by
both the public and private sectors. Indeed, we believe that the public sector
has far expanded to become larger than the Lebanese economy can bear. The
private sector, on the other hand, needs to be re-energized and encouraged by
the public sector, and today, whether in terms of budget, the electricity
project or the Cedar Conference, initiatives can create the necessary reforms to
reduce the deficit and to re-activate the spirit of initiative in Lebanon, so
that economic recovery and employment opportunities will be restored,” Salameh
emphasized. “Monetary stability is not enough for the country to grow
economically, socially and ethically,” he went on. Salameh stressed that “the
government is capable of ensuring a rational and rapid policy,” hoping that “it
will resume its meetings and initiatives since the current stage is very
delicate, thus requiring wisdom, boldness and a reasonable approach."
Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh: Lira Stable, Talk of Bankruptcy Risk
Unjustified
Naharnet/August 03/2019
Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh on Saturday reassured that the status of the
Lebanese lira is "stable.""All talk that Lebanon is a country facing the risk of
bankruptcy is unjustified scientifically and in the language of numbers,"
Salameh said during an economic conference in Bkirki. "As usual, there are
always negative rumors in the Lebanese markets, but even if rating agencies
downrate Lebanon's ranking, this will not affect the banking sector, seeing as
its impact would lower the solvency ratio from 16% to 12%, which would still be
above the threshold required internationally," the governor added.
ISF Intelligence Branch Reportedly Says 'No Ambush' in
Qabrshmoun
Naharnet/August 03/2019
The Intelligence Branch of the Internal Security Forces has concluded its
investigations in the file of the deadly Qabrshmoun incident and the president,
the speaker and the PM have become in the picture of its conclusions, media
reports said. The ISF's probe determined that "there was neither an ambush nor
an assassination attempt" against State Minister for Refugee Affairs Saleh al-Gharib,
several newspapers reported on Saturday. Gharib's bodyguards "opened fire first"
and "the men of the area were in a state of self-defense," the probe concluded,
according to the reports. Gharib and his Lebanese Democratic Party have
described the incident as an "ambush" and an "assassination attempt," demanding
that the case be referred to the Judicial Council, a top Lebanese court that
looks into crimes against national security. The Progressive Socialist Party,
whose supporters clashed with Gharib's convoy in Qabrshmoun, has accused the
minister's bodyguards of opening fire on protesters in an attempt to force their
way. Two of Gharib's bodyguards were killed in the incident and a third was
injured. The minister escaped unharmed as a PSP supporter was wounded. The
incident has sparked a poitical standoff in the country and forced the
suspension of cabinet sessions.
PSP Says May Quit Govt., Arslan Allies Also Say Ready to Resign
Naharnet/August 03/2019
The Progressive Socialist Party has threatened to quit government should there
be a vote on "curbing the role of PSP chief Walid Jumblat." "The demand to
resort to the Judicial Council has paralyzed Cabinet, and let them maintain
their demand if they want to freeze Cabinet and halt reforms and the state's
functioning," MP Bilal Abdullah of the PSP said. "If they want to vote in
Cabinet on curbing the role of PSP chief Walid Jumblat, let them tell us because
we might withdraw from the government. But if they want to keep the nationsl
accord government so that we overcome the difficult period, let them also tell
us," Abdullah added. "The judiciary should say its word in the file of the
Qabrshmoun incident, but if they want to target Jumblat's leadership, let them
tell us," the MP went on to say. Lamenting that there is political
"interference" in the work of the Military Court, Abdullah said the court can
reach "final conclusions" if "they let it do its job."Arab Tawhid Party leader
Wiam Wahhab meanwhile revealed that "MP (Talal) Arslan's allies have informed
him that should things reach the extent of Minister Saleh al-Gharib's
resignation, they will also resign."Arslan has insisted that the case of the
deadly Qabrshmoun incident -- in which two of Gharib's bodyguards were killed --
should be referred to the Judicial Council, a top Lebanese court that looks into
matters of national security. Jumblat, who insists that Qabrshmoun's incident
was not an assassination attempt against Gharib, has rejected the calls for
referring the case to the Judicial Council, describing the demand as an attempt
to curb his influence in Lebanese politics.
Cautious Calm in Ain el-Hilweh after Islamist Group Routed
Naharnet/August 03/2019
The Palestinian refugee camp of Ain el-Hilweh was on Saturday witnessing
cautious calm after a Palestinian "security operation" that ended in the
withdrawal of an Islamist group from a camp's neighborhood and the escape of its
leader. Lebanon's National News Agency said the operation was carried out in the
al-Ras al-Ahmar neighborhood, the bastion of "Bilal al-Orqoub's group."NNA said
the group is accused of assassinating Hussein Alaeddine, aka Abu Hassan
Khomeini, on Friday. The fighting had erupted in the wake of the incident. "The
Palestinian National Security forces managed to seize control of the house of
the fugitive Bilal al-Orqoub, amid reports that he fled with his son Youssef to
an unknown destination," NNA said. Several houses were burned during the clashes
and other material damage was recordes. Stray bullets meanwhile reached areas in
the camp's vicinity and damaged the glass facade of a bakery in the area. The
heavy fighting had renewed on Saturday morning after a night thay witnessed
intermittent shooting.
Lebanese President Asks Hariri to End Cabinet Paralysis
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 3 August, 2019
Lebanese President Michel Aoun on Friday telephoned Prime Minister Saad Hariri,
asking him to call for a cabinet session as soon as possible. The call came on
the basis that the government as a whole is the authority tasked with discussing
solutions to political and security disputes in the country. The Lebanese
government has been paralyzed since last month following the deaths of two young
men in the village of Qabr Shmoun in Mount Lebanon’s Aley district. The two
aides to Minister of State for Refugee Affairs Saleh Gharib were killed in a
shooting on June 30 when his convoy passed through the village, an incident that
the Lebanese Democratic Party member declared an assassination attempt by his
rivals. Efforts to mediate a way out of the standoff are deadlocked over which
court should hear the case. LDP leader Talal Arslan has called for referring it
to the Judicial Council, a specialized court that handles highly sensitive
security issues. Informed sources told LBCI TV on Friday that Aoun made his
phone call to Hariri after all initiatives and proposed solutions to end the
stalemate over the Qabr Shmoun shooting have failed. They said the presidential
call is based on item 12 of Article 53 of the Lebanese Constitution. The sources
said that Hariri promised to hold a cabinet session early next week. But
commenting on the president’s initiative, a government source told Asharq Al-Awsat
that “Hariri knows well his constitutional powers. The PM has already sent
direct and indirect messages to concerned parties about the need to hold a
cabinet session and to end the dispute.”The insistence of some parties to link
the fate of the government with the Qabr Shmoun incident, in addition to the
escalatory rhetoric of the past weeks, have been pushing the PM to take a
decision that prioritizes the national interest, they added.
Terre Liban" Association: We invite municipalities of
Beirut and Mount Lebanon to participate in our proposal on solid household waste
management
NNA -Sat 03 Aug 2019
In an issued statement on Saturday, the "Terre Liban" Association called on
heads and members of municipal councils in Beirut and Mount Lebanon regions to
"take the historic responsibility of avoiding a new waste crisis in the streets
a month from now, by participating in its proposed solution to manage 3000 tons
per day of household solid waste.""The proposed solution does not require
funding or establishing new landfills," the statement indicated, outlining a few
required steps in this regards. The Association explained that its proposed
solution "leads to saving $75 per ton of waste, prolonging the capacity
endurance of the Costabrava landfill up to 6 years, and saving the fishermen's
port in Dora - Burj Hammoud area.""Terre Liban" expressed full readiness to
support the municipalities with the necessary training and forums, while urging
those interested to contact the Association in order to sign this initiative in
preparation for presenting it to the concerned government bodies for clearance.
Bou Saab from Koura: Differences possible in politics but
must not reach hostility
NNA - Sat 03 Aug 2019
National Defense Minister, Elias Bou Saab, stated Saturday that differences are
possible in politics but must not reach the level of hostility. "Differing in
politics should not get us to the point of dealing with each other as if we are
enemies. No one can eliminate the other and the fate of all sects is to coexist
with each other in this country," Bou Saab emphasized. Speaking during his tour
in the Koura region earlier, he said: "The President of the Republic today is
acting on the basis of being the President of all of Lebanon and he is the
custodian of the Constitution, executing his powers and adhering to them to
rectify the mistakes and to build the state."Bou Saab continued to stress that
"political reconciliation cannot be made at the expense of the judiciary,"
adding, "In this framework comes President Aoun's demand to resort to the
judiciary and impose security, to be later followed by political
reconciliations."
Abdallah says demands for 'Justice Council' aim at political extortion
NNA - Sat 03 Aug 2019
MP Bilal Abdallah considered Saturday that the demand by certain sides to resort
to the Justice Council in the Qabrshmoun incident actually springs from their
wish for political coercion and blackmail. "Some media outlets portray the
Justice Council as something sacred, disregarding all security and judicial
reports and regular procedures undertaken in any security file," Abdallah told
"Radio Lebanon" earlier today. He pointed out that the Council of Ministers is
not the one to decide on the issue of the Judicial Council, nor is it the one to
determine the circumstances of the Qabrshmoun incident. "It is rather the duty
of the security apparatuses and the judiciary, who in turn can decide on
referring the case to cabinet if they detect the need for a Justice Council,"
explained Abdallah. "Contrary to that, the talk about the Justice Council began
from day one of the incident," he noted. The MP clarified that these calls fall
within "the goal to fabricate news that targets the Progressive Socialist Party
and its Chief by transforming a mere security incident to a global conspiracy
against a minister!" He added: "We will not allow for an outsmarting attempt on
the subject!"Abdallah continued to indicate that certain sides have taken the
cabinet hostage to this issue, which confirms the doubts that some wish to
disrupt the affairs of the entire state. "The Prime Minister is keen on
preventing a rift within the Council of Ministers, besides his lack of
conviction regarding the Justice Council issue," he maintained. The MP concluded
by reiterating confidence in the initiatives undertaken by top state officials
involved in finding a solution to this matter, adding, "We accept any balanced
initiative that is free of political motives, and all investigations have proven
that Minister al-Gharib's bodyguards were the ones to open fire at first."
Jreissati from Zahle: We are part of a project, not special
calculations
NNA -Sat 03 Aug 2019
Environment Minister, Fadi Jreissati, pursued his visit to Zahle on Saturday by
partaking in the cleaning campaign along the banks of the Bardawni River, and
later attending a luncheon in the presence of MP Selim Aoun and Free Patriotic
Movement officials. Jreissati stressed on being part of a project in the country
and not working for personal gains. He asserted that "the battle in the state
continues," stressing that "time is tight and efforts must focus on speeding up
works of reconstruction and damage repairs."Jreissati emphasized that everyone
in the country is responsible for restoring the prestigious image of the state,
vowing to achieve success despite all attempts to trigger frustration in the
hearts and minds of the Lebanese.
Finance Minister requests suspension of MTC building purchase decision
NNA -Sat 03 Aug 2019
Minister of Finance, Ali Hassan Khalil, announced Friday evening the suspension
of the decision to purchase the MTC building until it is decided upon in
accordance with the laws and regulations in force. In this context, the Finance
Ministry sent a letter to the Ministry of Communications on the subject of
spending from the revenues of the Ministry of Telecommunications (communications
sector), saying that: "...According to the provisions of Decree 2868 of
195912-16 (Organization of the Ministry of Finance), we ask that the decision to
purchase the MTC building be suspended until it is decided upon in accordance
with applicable laws and regulations."
Shiite Council: August 12 first Adha Day
NNA -Sat 03 Aug 2019
Head of the Supreme Islamic Shiite Council, Sheikh Abdul Amir Qabalan, announced
in a statement today that the first day of Adha Eid falls on Monday, August 12,
2019.
Kataeb MP Nadim Gemayel Gemayel: Presidential Letter Is an
Outbidding and Display of Power
Kataeb.org/August 03/2019
Kataeb MP Nadim Gemayel on Saturday deemed President Michel Aoun’s letter,
asking MPs to give a clarification on Article 95 of the Constitution, as an
outbidding and a display of power and prerogatives. “This is an outbidding that
neither progresses nor regresses; it is geared towards an exhibition of power
and authority,” Gemayel told Al-Joumhouria newspaper. “I cannot make out any
significance in this letter. Let us see how the “Strong President” will regain
the trust of the Lebanese in the government,” he stated. “The Lebanese citizen
in general and the Christian in particular no longer have faith in his country
or his nation. Let us start resolving the matter from here before we tackle
other issues, seeking fictitious problems that have nothing to do with our
survival in Lebanon,” he added. President Michel Aoun had signed the 2019 state
budget on Wednesday, finalizing the audits of the previous years as stipulated
by the law and providing the necessary resources to the Court of Audit. However,
Aoun addressed a letter to Speaker Nabih Berri, demanding that MPs provide a
clarification on Article 95 of the Constitution, especially paragraph B, which
states that sectarianism must be eliminated in hiring for state jobs, the
judiciary and in military and security institutions, despite the fact that all
sectarian groups should be represented in the cabinet and in senior state posts.
Paragraph B specifies that sectarian hiring shall be replaced by the principle
of expertise and competence. Following Aoun’s request, Speaker Berri scheduled a
Parliament session on October 17 to elucidate the status of Article 95.
Analysis/Hezbollah Turning Syria Villages on Israel Border Into Fortresses
علموس هاريل/هآرتس: حزب الله يحول القرى السورية على الحدود مع إسرائيل إلى قلاع
Amos Harel/Haartz/August 03/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/77227/%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%85%d9%88%d8%b3-%d9%87%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%84-%d9%87%d8%a2%d8%b1%d8%aa%d8%b3-%d8%ad%d8%b2%d8%a8-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%84%d9%87-%d9%8a%d8%ad%d9%88%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%82%d8%b1%d9%89-%d8%a7/
A year ago, Russia promised to keep Iran away from border. We
agreed on Iran, not on its proxies, Moscow tells a concerned Israel.
Compared to Gaza, the Iranian front – which to Israeli eyes stretches from the
Persian Gulf through Iraq and into Syria and Lebanon – is bustling with action.
Throughout July, reports attributed two attacks in Iraq to Israel and at least
three other attacks in southern Syria, which were directed against the military
apparatus Hezbollah is building on the Syrian side of the border on the Golan
Heights – and in one case included the killing of a local activist.
The “campaign between the wars” is continuing with relative momentum, even if
most of it is being conducted under the radar and has not received almost any
detailed coverage in real time. What is going on in Iraq reached the headlines
in Israel with a delay of almost two weeks, and only after Arab media outlets
reported on two attacks by the Israel Air Force in western Iraq. One of the
reports even claimed that the attack was carried out by Israel’s new F-35s.
Even if the information is correct in general, as usual it is recommended to
take the details with a grain of salt. Not every attack needs to be carried out
using the most advanced technological means. The IDF’s military intelligence
directorate highlighted Iraq as the next arena for the military campaign back in
2018.
The Iranians are trying to translate their regional arc of influence into a real
land corridor – along with the arms smuggling network they are operating,
alongside their air and sea efforts, on the Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut line
on the ground.
In addition, it seems Tehran is making an effort to deploy some of its
longer-range missiles in western Iraq with the help of the Shi’ite militias
there, with the goal of distancing them from Israeli capabilities to attack
them, which have been demonstrated in the past in northern and eastern Syria.
At the same time, Israel has continued to fight its holding action near the
border on the Golan Heights. A series of attacks attributed to the IDF there
illustrates again how ridiculous it was to rely on Russia’s promise, about a
year ago, to keep an Iranian presence away from the border in return for Israel
not interfering in the operation by the Assad regime to retake control of
southern Syria.
At the time, the Russians spoke about demilitarization of 70 or 80 kilometers
between Iranian forces and the border with Israel – and Netanyahu supporters
boasted about his “unprecedented diplomatic achievement.” In reality, it was
revealed very quickly that Hezbollah was actually more active in the region and
the organization was reestablishing its terror networks in southern Syria.
The head of the IDF’s Operations Directorate, Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliwa, was in
Moscow in the middle of last month for a work meeting that the IDF described as
excellent. Nonetheless, when Israel came to complain to the Russians about the
Hezbollah presence on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, they were told that
the promises concerned only the Iranians themselves, and not their agents. Given
these circumstances, it seems Moscow has made peace with Israel’s limited
military actions against the Iranians and Hezbollah in Syria, as long as it does
not endanger the stability of the regime in Damascus.
As Haaretz reported in February, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have distanced
themselves for now, under the pressure of the Israeli attacks, from the Damascus
Airport to the T-4 airbase near Homs. But Hezbollah operations in the villages
on the Golan have intensified. The Israeli actions may be only touching the tip
of the iceberg, while Hezbollah worked very hard to turn these villages into
fortified military compounds, as it has done since 2006 in the Shi’ite villages
in southern Lebanon.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
August 03-04/2019
قتلى وجرحي في عملية اطلاق نار داخل
محلات ولمارت في تاكسس/اميركا
'Multiple fatalities' after shooting at El Paso Walmart in Texas/USA
https://ca.yahoo.com/news/photos-multiple-fatalities-after-shooting-at-el-paso-walmart-203101238.html
Yahoo/August 03/2019
As many as 18 people were shot and one suspect is in custody after a mass
shooting at an El Paso, Texas, Walmart on Saturday morning, officials said. A
spokesperson for El Paso Mayor Dee Margo confirmed to ABC News that there were
"multiple fatalities" from the shooting. El Paso Police Department Sgt. Robert
Gomez said that "we have ruled out multiple shooters," adding, "We have no
information ... about what the motive is."The shooting began in the parking lot
outside, an eyewitness told ABC News Radio, describing the shooter as dressed in
cargo pants and wearing ear protectors. The eyewitness, a shopper named Vanessa
who was searching for parking in her car with her mother, said that she heard
shots and at first saw a man who looked like he was dancing. Moments later, she
said, she she saw a woman a few feet away fall to the ground. The eyewitness
then describing seeing victims near the shooter who became cornered -- with
nowhere to run -- and then watched the gunman raise a rifle, aim it at them and
start firing.
New Round of U.S.-Taliban Talks Opens in Doha
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 03/2019
Talks between the U.S. and the Taliban seeking to end nearly 18 years of war in
Afghanistan resumed in Doha on Saturday, the Taliban said. "Today the talks
began," the insurgent group's spokesman in Doha, Suhail Shaheen, told AFP. The
U.S., which invaded Afghanistan and toppled the Taliban in 2001, wants to
withdraw thousands of troops and is hoping for a breakthrough. However, any
drawdown would be on condition the insurgent group renounces al-Qaida and curbs
attacks. Washington is hoping to strike a peace deal with the Taliban by
September 1 -- ahead of Afghan polls due the same month, and U.S. presidential
polls due in 2020. U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House
on Friday that "we've made a lot of progress. We're talking."A coalition led by
Washington ousted the Taliban, accusing it of harboring al-Qaida jihadists who
claimed the September 11, 2001 attacks against the U.S. that killed almost 3,000
people.
U.S. Says Wants to Quickly Deploy New Missiles in Asia
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 03/2019
Washington wants to quickly deploy new intermediate-range missiles in Asia, to
counter the rise of China in the region, new U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper
said Saturday. "Yes I would like to," Esper said when asked if the U.S. was
considering deploying new medium-range conventional weapons in Asia now
Washington is no longer bound by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF)
treaty. "We would like to deploy a capability sooner rather than later," Esper
told reporters on a plane to Sydney at the start of a week-long tour of Asia. "I
would prefer months ... But these things tend to take longer than you expect."
The new Pentagon chief did not specify where the U.S. intended to deploy these
weapons. "I would not speculate because those things depend on plans, it's those
things you always discuss with your allies," he said. Washington withdrew from
the INF treaty on Friday after accusing Russia of violating it for years. Under
the pact signed in 1987 by then U.S. president Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader
Mikhail Gorbachev, Washington and Moscow agreed to limit the use of conventional
and nuclear medium-range missiles (with a range of 500-5,000 kilometers,
300-3,000 miles). But its unraveling had been on the cards for months amid
worsening ties between Russia and the U.S. Washington is now free to compete
with China, whose arsenal is largely made up of weapons prohibited under the INF
Treaty, to which Beijing was never a signatory. Esper said China should not be
surprised by the U.S. plans. "That should be no surprise because we have been
talking about that for some time now," he said. "And I want to say that 80
percent of their inventory is INF range systems. So that should not surprise
that we would want to have a like capability," he said.
4 Dead, Many Hurt after Powerful Quake Rocks Indonesia
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 03/2019
Four people died and several were injured after a powerful undersea earthquake
rocked Indonesia's heavily populated Java island, triggering a brief tsunami
warning, the national disaster agency said Saturday. The 6.9 magnitude quake on
Friday evening sent residents fleeing to higher ground, while many in the
capital Jakarta ran into the streets. An official from Indonesia's national
disaster agency warned the quake could generate a tsunami as high as three
meters (10 feet), but the alert was lifted several hours later. Three people
died of heart attacks as the strong quake rocked the region, agency spokesman
Agus Wibowo said on Saturday. Another person fell to his death while trying to
flee his house when the jolt happened, he said. Four more people were injured
and more than 200 buildings were damaged, with some 13 houses destroyed, he
added. Over 1,000 people, who had earlier evacuated to temporary shelters,
returned home after authorities convinced them it was safe to do so, Wibowo
said. "There was thundering noise -- it sounded like a plane overhead -- and I
was just so scared that I ran," said 69-year-old Isah, who like many Indonesians
goes by one name, at an evacuation shelter in Pandeglang at the southwest end of
Java. In December, the area was hit by a volcano-sparked tsunami that killed
over 400 people. Indonesia experiences frequent seismic and volcanic activity
due to its position on the Pacific "Ring of Fire", where tectonic plates
collide. Last year, a 7.5-magnitude quake and a subsequent tsunami in Palu on
Sulawesi island killed more than 2,200 people, with another thousand declared
missing. On December 26, 2004, a devastating 9.1-magnitude earthquake struck off
the coast of Sumatra and triggered a tsunami that killed 220,000 across the
Indian Ocean region, including around 170,000 in Indonesia.
Sudan Generals, Protest Leaders Agree Constitutional
Declaration
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 03/2019
Sudan's ruling generals and protest leaders reached a "full agreement" on the
constitutional declaration, the African Union said, paving the way for
transitioning to civilian rule. The agreement came after prolonged negotiations
between Sudan's ruling military council and the Alliance for Freedom and Change
which has been leading the protest movement across Sudan for months. "I am
announcing to the Sudanese, African and international public opinion that the
two delegations have fully agreed on the constitutional declaration," AU
mediator Mohamed El Hacen Lebatt told reporters. Lebatt said meetings will be
held to discuss a formal signing ceremony. The main points of contention
concerned the powers of the proposed joint civilian-military ruling body, the
deployment of security forces and immunity for generals over protest-related
violence. Saturday's announcement came after the military council announced nine
paramilitaries had been arrested for killing four teenage demonstrators earlier
this week as talks with protest leaders over the country's future navigated a
second day. The move against the paramilitary men of the feared Rapid Support
Forces stemmed from the fatal shooting of four schoolchildren and two other
demonstrators during a rally against fuel and bread shortages in the city of
Al-Obeid in North Kordofan on Monday. The killings have sparked anger across
Sudan. On Thursday, four more protesters were shot dead in the capital's twin
city of Omdurman, just across the Nile from Khartoum, said doctors linked to the
country's protest movement. "An investigation has been launched into the
incident of Al-Obeid and seven members of the RSF were immediately dismissed and
handed over to civilian judges for trial," General Shamseddine Kabbashi,
spokesman for the ruling military council, told reporters earlier on Friday. He
also said that measures will be taken against those responsible for Thursday's
violence.
Tunisia Presidential Hopefuls Line Up for September Polls
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 03/2019
Presidential hopefuls in Tunisia began registering their candidacies on Friday
for snap September polls called after the death of 92-year-old leader Beji Caid
Essebsi. Eight would-be candidates, including media magnate Nabil Karoui,
submitted their papers to the North African country's electoral commission.
Prime Minister Youssef Chahed has not yet officially registered, although his
party said on Wednesday he would stand in the polls. Originally scheduled for
November, the vote was brought forward to September 15 following Essebsi's death
in late July. Karoui was charged with money laundering this month after stating
his intention to stand in the polls. He was nearly removed from the race in June
when parliament passed an amended electoral code that would bar any candidate
who handed out "favours in cash or in kind" in the year before the vote. But
Essebsi neither rejected nor enacted the bill, leaving the door open for Karoui
to run. The media mogul was an active supporter of Essebsi's election in 2014
and has become the prime minister's fiercest rival. Chahed, who studied
agricultural engineering, entered politics after the 2011 uprising which ousted
autocratic president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Launched at the start of the year,
his Tahia Tounes has become the second largest party in parliament behind
Islamist-inspired Ennahdha. Longtime Ben Ali opponent and head of Tunisia's
Democratic Current party Mohamed Abbou also submitted his candidacy on Friday.
He was joined by Abir Moussi, the only woman so far running in the polls. She
heads a party formed from the remnants of Ben Ali's ruling party and has called
for the exclusion of Islamists, including Ennahdha. "Our priority today is to
restore order in Tunisia" and the "fundamental principles" championed by its
first president Habib Bourguiba, she told AFP after submitting her candidacy.
Presidential hopefuls have until August 9 to register, with the commission set
to provide a final list of candidates on August 31. The campaigns are scheduled
to run from September 2 to September 13, with the preliminary results announced
two days after the polls. A date for the second round of presidential elections
has not yet been decided, but the electoral commission said it would be held no
later than November 3.
Russian Opposition to Take to Streets Again, Defying
Crackdown
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 03/2019
The Russian opposition vowed to stage another mass rally Saturday despite
increasing pressure from authorities, who arrested nearly 1,400 people at a
protest last week and have launched a criminal probe into the movement. The
unauthorized march along Moscow's leafy boulevards will be the latest in a
series of demonstrations after officials refused to let popular opposition
candidates run in next month's city parliament elections. The local issue has
boiled over into one of the worst political conflicts of recent years, with
rallies of up to 22,000 people and police violence against demonstrators. More
than 6,000 people said on Facebook they would take part in the march along
Moscow's so-called Boulevard Ring on Saturday to "bring back the right to
elections."Authorities installed barriers along the route ahead of the protest.
Candidates needed to collect signatures from city residents to stand in the
polls but officials said they were disqualified because some names were forged.
But candidates, including allies of top Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, insist
their signatures were thrown out arbitrarily, and the whole vetting process was
skewed against them. Many Muscovites said their signatures in support of
opposition candidates were declared invalid for no reason. President Vladimir
Putin has yet to comment on the situation in Moscow.
'Right to choose'
In the polls in September, the opposition hopes to end the monopoly of Kremlin
loyalists in Moscow's parliament. The body decides the city's
multi-billion-dollar budget but lacks political independence from mayor Sergei
Sobyanin, an ally of Putin. Sobyanin has warned the opposition against "new
provocations". Navalny and other protest leaders argue corruption is rife in the
capital. Navalny, currently in jail, was rushed to hospital last weekend in an
incident his personal doctor blamed on possible poisoning with an unknown
chemical substance. A state toxicology lab said no traces were found. Navalny's
team on Thursday released a report accusing Sobyanin's deputy of selling prime
Moscow property to her family members at rock-bottom prices. The claims have
angered protesters who have called for more street demonstrations. "The
Electoral Commission is not doing its job, the courts are not doing their job.
The only thing that works, is the street," said one young woman on Twitter.
Authorities have launched investigations into last weekend's "mass riots" and
"violence against police", echoing similar probes into protests against Putin in
2012 which saw several people jailed. Four people were formally arrested pending
trial Friday, though the opposition stressed that the protest was peaceful.
"Their task is to paralyze the protest movement, to isolate its leaders and
frighten participants," one rejected candidate, Ilya Yashin, wrote on Facebook.
He is currently being held for 10 days in a police cell for violating rules on
legal protests. "There were no mass riots in Moscow, not by a long shot," Yashin
wrote.
Hunger strikes
One of the men arrested is suspected of injuring a policeman by allegedly
throwing a plastic bottle into the ranks of national guard wearing heavy
protective gear. Several candidates have declared hunger strikes. Moscow police
on Friday issued a warning for people not to attend the rally, which has not
been given permission by the authorities to go ahead. "We repeat that the event
is illegal," it said on its website. "We suggest that residents and visitors
refrain from participating." Police "will take all necessary measures," the
Moscow prosecutors' office said. Reports said that the head of Moscow police
even petitioned the Russian Premier League to reschedule a match between the
city's two top teams, which may trigger fan violence and require a massive
presence of the force in two places at once. The petition was rejected, a source
told TASS news agency.
Hong Kong Protesters Seize Roads and Tunnel in Defiance of
China Warnings
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 03/2019
Anti-government protesters in Hong Kong erected barricades in a popular shopping
district and blocked a major tunnel Saturday evening, defying increasingly stern
warnings from China over weeks-long unrest that has plunged the city into
crisis.The semi-autonomous southern Chinese financial hub has seen two months of
protests and clashes triggered by opposition to a planned extradition law that
quickly evolved into a wider movement for democratic reforms. Authorities in
Hong Kong and Beijing this week signalled a hardening stance, including with the
arrests of dozens of protesters, and the Chinese military saying it was ready to
quell the "intolerable" unrest if requested. But protesters have remained
unyielding, vowing to hold multiple occupations and rallies into next week,
sending tensions soaring once more. On Saturday evening, hundreds of masked
protesters put up makeshift barricades across multiple roads in Tsim Sha Tsui, a
popular shopping and tourist district on the harbourfront. They also blocked one
of the three cross-harbour tunnels connecting to the main island, causing
widespread traffic chaos. In a statement, police called on protesters to "stop
their illegal acts" and told members of the public to avoid the area. Earlier in
the day protesters marched through the densely populated neighborhood of Mongkok,
which has previously seen clashes between police and demonstrators, chanting
slogans and calling for residents to join a planned strike on Monday.
"The more the government suppresses us, the more we will come out until the
government responds to our demands," protester Ah Kit, 36, told AFP.
City wide strike
Two marches are also planned for Sunday -- one on Hong Kong island and the other
in the Tseung Kwan O district -- as well as a city-wide strike on Monday and
rallies in seven locations. The call for strike action appears to be gaining
more traction than previous walkouts, with a host of organisations and unions
vowing to join. Hong Kong has witnessed eight consecutive weekends of huge
rallies -- often followed by violent clashes between police and small groups of
hardcore protesters. Under the terms of the 1997 handover deal, the city has
rights and liberties unseen on the mainland, including an independent judiciary
and freedom of speech. But many say those rights are being curtailed, citing the
disappearance into mainland custody of dissident booksellers, the
disqualification of prominent politicians and the jailing of pro-democracy
protest leaders. Public anger has been compounded by rising inequality and the
perception that the city's distinct language and culture are being threatened by
ever-closer integration with the Chinese mainland. On Saturday evening,
protesters tore down the Chinese flag from a pole on the waterfront and threw it
in the harbor. The past two weekends have seen a surge in violence used by both
protesters and police, who have repeatedly fired rubber bullets and tear gas to
disperse projectile-throwing crowds. A mob of pro-government thugs also
attacked demonstrators, putting 45 people in hospital. Hong Kong's police have
increasingly adopted tougher tactics, including this week charging 44 protesters
with rioting -- an offence that carries up to 10 years in jail.
'Bridgehead to attack China'
Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam has made few concessions beyond agreeing to
suspend the extradition bill and shied away from public appearances. Protesters
are demanding her resignation, an independent inquiry into police tactics, an
amnesty for those arrested, a permanent withdrawal of the bill, and the right to
elect their leaders. Thousands of pro-government supporters also held a rally in
a separate park on Saturday, many waving Chinese flags and chanting slogans in
support of the police -- who have refuted allegations of using excessive force.
Beijing has increasingly pitched the anti-government protests as funded by the
west. In a column published on Newsweek's website on Saturday, Beijing's
ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai said "ill intentioned" forces inside Hong Kong
and overseas were trying to turn the city "into a bridgehead to attack the
mainland's system and spark chaos across China."
China has provided little evidence beyond supportive statements from some
western politicians and critics say Beijing's accusations of foreign meddling
ignore Hong Kongers' legitimate grievances.
Erdogan Lays Stone for Modern Turkey's First New Church
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 03/2019
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday laid the foundation stone for the
first new church in Turkey since it became a modern republic in 1923. The church
in the Istanbul suburb of Yesilkoy will serve the 17,000-strong Syriac Christian
community, which is also paying for the new building. "It is the Turkish
republic's duty to meet the need for space to worship for the Syriac community,
who are the ancient children of this geography," Erdogan said during the
stone-laying ceremony. Syriac Christians are part of the eastern Christian
tradition and pray in Aramaic, which Jesus is believed to have spoken.
Erdogan said he hoped the construction of the Syriac Orthodox Mor Ephrem Church
would be completed within two years. He had ordered the Istanbul metropolitan
municipality to find space for the building in 2009 while he was prime minister.
It is being built on land belonging to the Latin Catholic Church and which is
part of an Italian cemetery, the head of the Beyoglu Virgin Mary Syriac Orthodox
Church Foundation in Istanbul, Sait Susin, said. In recent years, Turkey has
restored and reopened churches but the Islamic-rooted government has been
criticised for trying to Islamicise the official secular country. Christian
minorities including Armenians have also complained of being treated as
second-class citizens in the Muslim-majority country. Christians make up around
0.2 percent of the total population in Turkey. But Erdogan sought to extend a
hand to other communities in the country of 82 million, saying "don't forget,
this country, this state belongs to everyone". "Anyone who has affection for,
contributes to and is loyal to Turkey is a first-class citizen. There are no
barriers to anyone in politics, trade or any other area."Official statistics
show 98 percent of the Turkish population is Muslim but a poll by Konda group
earlier this year showed the number of people identifying as atheist rose from
one to three percent between 2008 and 2018. In the same survey, 51 percent said
they were religious in 2018 compared with 55 percent in 2008, although the
number of those who said they were a "believer" rose from 31 percent to 34
percent in a decade.
Palestinian Labor in Lebanon: Economic, Sectarian
Considerations
Beirut - Paula Astih/Asharq Al Awsat/August 03/2019
The Lebanese Labor Ministry’s recent decision to combat illegal labor has
brought back the case of the Palestinian presence in Lebanon to the forefront.
Since the introduction of the illegal labor control plan, Palestinian camps in
the country have witnessed large-scale strikes and protests, compelling Labor
Minister Kamil Abu Sleiman to reverse his actions.The minister, for his part,
confirmed that he was only implementing the labor law, which his predecessors
had failed to execute, adding that the same law granted Palestinian workers many
exceptions, taking into account the specificity of their situation. According to
the Palestinian Association for Human Rights (Witness), the Palestinian labor in
Lebanon is divided into three categories. The rich, who brought their wealth
from Palestine and are active in the real estate and banking sectors. Most of
them have managed to obtain the Lebanese nationality in the early stages.
The second category is that of the educated professionals, most of whom have
left the country in the 1950s due to the lack of opportunities, and headed to
Europe and the Arabian Gulf. As for the third class, it is the largest in number
and is composed of the labor force, working mainly in seasonal and arduous jobs.
The Palestinian labor force is estimated at 75,000 workers, who are concentrated
in difficult work fields such as agriculture, construction, bakeries and fuel
stations.Palestinian and international NGOs, particularly the UN Relief and
Works Agency (UNRWA), provide employment opportunities for Palestinian refugees
in Lebanon through their relief and development programs, including microcredit
and income generation projects. Some Palestinians, according to the National
Human Rights Plan on the website of the Lebanese parliament, are also running
small craft projects in and around the camps, as well as clinics, pharmacies and
unlicensed medical laboratories run by doctors, pharmacists and technicians.
Lebanese political forces emphasize that measures taken by the Ministry of Labor
aim to protect the Lebanese workers and give them priority over foreign laborers,
as is happening in all countries, especially after the rise of unemployment
among the Lebanese to unprecedented levels (about 35 percent). Fatah movement
sources stressed that the Palestinian objections would not rest until the
reversal of the ministry’s decision on Palestinian labor. In remarks to Asharq
Al-Awsat, the sources noted that the majority of Lebanese political parties
supported the Palestinian demands, which were explicitly asserted by Parliament
Speaker Nabih Berri, Hezbollah and Prime Minister Saad Hariri. This issue has
put the spotlight on the positions of the Christian political blocs. The
Lebanese Forces declared their full support for the minister’s plan, while the
Kataeb Party stressed “the necessity of applying Lebanese laws to all residents”
of the Lebanese territories, “in particular the labor law.” On the other hand,
successive Lebanese governments have not taken any action to address the many
crises that beset the camps, whether at the security, social or economic levels.
The only step that was taken in 2017 under the framework of the organization of
the Palestinian presence in Lebanon is the general population and housing census
in the Palestinian camps and gatherings in Lebanon. The census was supervised by
the Lebanese-Palestinian Dialogue Committee and completed by the Lebanese and
Palestinian central bureaus of statistics. Today, the Palestinian forces in
Lebanon fear that the recent measures taken by the Lebanese Ministry of Labor
will lead to a social and security explosion in the camps, which were already
under extreme poverty and unemployment rate close to 70 percent, according to
Palestinian sources. In a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat, researcher in
Palestinian affairs, Saqr Abu Fakhr, did not rule out the possibility of a
“social explosion inside the camps” if the Lebanese government “did not find an
appropriate way out of the crisis.” He noted, however that Palestinian refugees,
during their objections in the past few days, have shown a high degree of
self-restraint.”
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials
from miscellaneous sources published
on August 03-04/2019
France Slowly Sinking into Chaos
Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/August 03/2019
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14643/france-sinking-chaos
President Macron never says he is sorry for those who have lost an eye or a
hand... from extreme police brutality. Instead, he asked the French parliament
to pass a law that almost completely abolishes the right to protest and the
presumption of innocence, and that allows the arrest of anyone, anywhere, even
without cause. The law was passed.
In June, the French parliament passed another law, severely punishing anyone who
says or writes something that might contain "hate speech". The law is so vague
that an American legal scholar, Jonathan Turley, felt compelled to react.
"France", he wrote, "has now become one of the biggest international threats to
freedom of speech".
The main concern of Macron and the French government seems not to be the risk of
riots, the public's discontent, the disappearance of Christianity, the
disastrous economic situation, or Islamization and its consequences. Instead, it
is climate change.
"The West no longer knows what it is, because it does not know and does not want
to know what shaped it, what constituted it, what it was and what it is. (...)
This self-asphyxiation leads naturally to a decadence that opens the way to new
barbaric civilizations." — Cardinal Robert Sarah, in Le soir approche et déjà le
jour baisse.
French President Emmanuel Macron never says he is sorry for those who have lost
an eye or a hand from extreme police brutality. Instead, he asked the French
parliament to pass a law that almost completely abolishes the right to protest
and the presumption of innocence, and that allows the arrest of anyone,
anywhere, even without cause. The law was passed.
Paris, Champs-Élysées. July 14. Bastille Day. Just before the military parade
begins, President Emmanuel Macron comes down the avenue in an official car to
greet the crowd. Thousands of people gathered along the avenue shout "Macron
resign", boo and hurl insults.
At the end of the parade, a few dozen people release yellow balloons into the
sky and distribute leaflets saying "The yellow vests are not dead." The police
disperse them, quickly and firmly. Moments later, hundreds of "Antifa"
anarchists arrive, throw security barriers on the roadway to erect barricades,
start fires and smash the storefronts of several shops. The police have a rough
time mastering the situation, but early in the evening, after a few hours, they
restore the calm.
A few hours later, thousands of young Arabs from the suburbs gather near the Arc
de Triomphe. They have apparently come to "celebrate" in their own way the
victory of an Algerian soccer team. More storefronts are smashed, more shops
looted. Algerian flags are everywhere. Slogans are belted out: "Long live
Algeria", "France is ours", "Death to France". Signs bearing street names are
replaced by signs bearing the name of Abd El Kader, the religious and military
leader who fought against the French army at the time of the colonization of
Algeria. The police limit themselves to stemming the violence in the hope that
it will not spread.
Around midnight, three leaders of the "yellow vest" movement come out of a
police station and tell a TV reporter that they were arrested early that morning
and imprisoned for the rest of the day. Their lawyer states that they did
nothing wrong and were just "preventively" arrested. He emphasizes that a law
passed in February 2019 allows the French police to arrest any person suspected
of going to a demonstration; no authorization from a judge is necessary and no
appeal possible.
On Friday, July 19, the Algerian soccer team wins again. More young Arabs gather
near Arc de Triomphe to "celebrate" again. The damage is even greater than eight
days before. More police show up; they do almost nothing.
On July 12, two days before Bastille Day, several hundred self-declared African
illegal migrants enter the Pantheon, the monument that houses the graves of
heroes who played major roles in the history of France. There, the migrants
announce the birth of the "Black Vest movement". They demand the
"regularization" of all illegal immigrants on French territory and free housing
for each of them. The police show up but decline to intervene. Most of the
demonstrators leave peacefully. A few who insult the police are arrested.
France today is a country adrift. Unrest and lawlessness continue to gain
ground. Disorder has become part of daily life. Polls show that a large majority
reject President Macron. They seem to hate his arrogance and be inclined not to
forgive him. They seem to resent his contempt for the poor; the way he crushed
the "yellow vest" movement, and for his not having paid even the slightest
attention to the protesters' smallest demands, such as the right to hold a
citizens' referendum like those in Switzerland. Macron can no longer go anywhere
in public without risking displays of anger.
The "yellow vests" seem finally to have stopped demonstrating and given up: too
many were maimed or hurt. Their discontent, however, is still there. It seems
waiting to explode again.
The French police appear ferocious when dealing with peaceful protesters, but
barely able to prevent groups such as "Antifa" from causing violence. Therefore,
now at the end of each demonstration, "Antifa" show up. The French police seem
particularly cautious when having to deal with young Arabs and illegal migrants.
The police have been given orders. They know that young Arabs and illegal
migrants could create large-scale riots. Three months ago, in Grenoble, the
police were pursuing some young Arabs on a stolen motorcycle, who were accused
of theft. While fleeing, they had an accident. Five days of mayhem began.
President Macron looks like an authoritarian leader when he faces the
disgruntled poor. He never says he is sorry for those who have lost an eye or a
hand or suffered irreversible brain damage from extreme police brutality.
Instead, he asked the French parliament to pass a law that almost completely
abolishes the right to protest, the presumption of innocence and that allows the
arrest of anyone, anywhere, even without cause. The law was passed.
In June, the French parliament passed another law, severely punishing anyone who
says or writes something that might contain "hate speech". The law is so vague
that an American legal scholar, Jonathan Turley, felt compelled to react.
"France has now become one of the biggest international threats to freedom of
speech", he wrote.
Macron does not appear authoritarian, however, with violent anarchists. When
facing young Arabs and illegal migrants, he looks positively weak.
He knows what the former interior minister, Gérard Collomb, said in November
2018, while resigning from government:
"Communities in France are engaging in conflict with one another more and more
and it is becoming very violent... today we live side by side, I fear that
tomorrow it will be face to face".
Macron also knows what former President François Hollande said after serving his
term as president: "France is on the verge of partition".
Macron knows that the partition of France already exists. Most Arabs and
Africans live in no-go zones, apart from the rest of the population, where they
accept the presence of non-Arabs and non-Africans less and less. They do not
define themselves as French, except when they say that France will belong to
them. Reports show that most seem filled with a deep rejection of France and
Western civilization. An increasing number seem to place their religion above
their citizenship; many seem radicalized and ready to fight.
Macron seems not to want to fight. Instead, he has chosen to appease them. He is
single-mindedly pursuing his plans to institutionalize Islam in France. Three
months ago, the Muslim Association for Islam of France (AMIF) was created. One
branch will handle the cultural expansion of Islam and take charge of "the fight
against anti-Muslim racism". Another branch will be responsible for programs
that train imams and build mosques. This autumn, a "Council of Imams of France"
will be established. The main leaders of the AMIF are (or were until recently)
members of the Muslim Brotherhood, a movement designated as a terrorist
organization in Egypt, Bahrain, Syria, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates -- but not in France.
Macron is aware of the demographic data. They show that the Muslim population in
France will grow significantly in the coming years. (The economist Charles Gave
wrote recently that by 2057, France will have a Muslim majority). Macron can see
that it will soon be impossible for anyone to be elected President without
relying on the Muslim vote, so he acts accordingly.
Macron apparently sees that the discontent that gave birth to the "yellow vest"
movement still is there. He appears to think that repression will be enough to
prevent any further uprising, and so does nothing to remedy the causes of the
discontent.
The "yellow vest" movement was born of a revolt against exorbitantly high taxes
on fuel, and harsh government measures against cars and motorists. These
measures included reduced speed limits -- 50 mph on most highways -- and more
speed-detection cameras; a sharp rise in the penalties on tickets, as well as
complex and expensive annual motor vehicle controls. French taxes on fuels
recently rose again and are now the highest in Europe (70% of the price paid at
the pump). Other measures against the use of automobiles and motorists still in
force are especially painful for the poor. They were already chased from the
suburbs by intolerant newcomers, and now have to live -- and drive -- even
farther from where they work.
Macron has made no decision to remedy the disastrous economic situation in
France. When he was elected, taxes, duties and social charges represented almost
50% of GDP. Government spending represented 57% of GDP (the highest among
developed countries). The ratio of national debt to GDP was almost 100%.
Taxes, duties, social charges and government spending remain at the same level
now as when Macron came in. The debt-to-GDP ratio is 100% and growing. The
French economy is not creating jobs. Poverty remains extremely high: 14% of the
population earn less than 855 euros ($950) a month.
Macron pays no attention to the growing cultural disaster also seizing the
country. The educational system is crumbling. An increasing percentage of
students graduate from high school without knowing how to write a sentence free
of errors that make incomprehensible anything they write. Christianity is
disappearing. Most non-Muslim French no longer define themselves as Christians.
The fire that ravaged the Cathedral of Notre Dame de Paris was officially an
"accident," but it was only one of the many Christian religious buildings in the
country that were recently destroyed. Every week, churches are vandalized -- to
the general indifference of the public. In just the first half of 2019, 22
churches burned down.
The main concern of Macron and the French government seems not to be the risk of
riots, the public's discontent, the disappearance of Christianity, the
disastrous economic situation, or Islamization and its consequences. Instead, it
is climate change. Although the amount of France's carbon dioxide emissions is
infinitesimal (less than 1% of the global total), combatting "human-induced
climate change" appears Macron's absolute priority.
A Swedish girl, Greta Thunberg, age 16, -- nevertheless the guru of the "fight
for the climate" in Europe -- was recently invited to the French National
Assembly by members of parliament who support Macron. She delivered a speech,
promising that the "irreversible destruction" of the planet will begin very
soon. She added that political leaders "are not mature enough" and need lessons
from children. MPs who support Macron applauded warmly. She received a Prize of
Freedom, just created, which will be given each year to people "fighting for the
values of those who landed in Normandy in 1944 to liberate Europe". It is
probably reasonable to assume that not one of those who landed in Normandy in
1944 thought he was fighting to save the climate. Such minor details, however,
seem beyond Macron and the parliamentarians who support him.
Macron and the French government also seem unconcerned that Jews -- driven by
the rise of anti-Semitism, and understandably worried about court decisions
infused with the spirit of submission to violent Islam -- continue to flee from
France.
Kobili Traore, the man who murdered Sarah Halimi in 2017 while chanting suras
from the Qur'an and shouting that the Jews are Sheitan (Arabic for "Satan") was
found not guilty. Traore had apparently smoked cannabis before the murder, so
the judges decided that he was not responsible for his acts. Traore will soon be
released from prison; what happens if he smokes cannabis again?
A few weeks after the murder of Halimi, three members of a Jewish family were
assaulted, tortured and held hostage in their home by a group of five men who
said that "Jews have money" and "Jews must pay". The men were arrested; all were
Muslim. The judge who indicted them announced that their actions were "not
anti-Semitic".
On July 25, 2019 when the Israeli soccer team Maccabi Haifa was competing in
Strasbourg, the French government limited the number of Israeli supporters in
the stadium to 600, not one more. A thousand had bought plane tickets to come to
France to attend the match. The French government also banned the waving of
Israeli flags at the game or anywhere in the city. Nonetheless, in the name of
"free speech", the French Department of the Interior permitted anti-Israeli
demonstrations in front of the stadium, and Palestinian flags and banners saying
"Death to Israel" were there. The day before the match, at a restaurant near the
stadium, some Israelis were violently attacked. "The demonstrations against
Israel are approved in the name of freedom of expression, but the authorities
forbid supporters of Maccabi Haifa to raise the Israeli flag, it is
unacceptable," said Aliza Ben Nun, Israel's ambassador to France.
The other day, a plane full of French Jews leaving France arrived in Israel.
More French Jews will soon go. The departure of Jews to Israel entails
sacrifices: some French real estate agents take advantage of the wish of many
Jewish families to leave, so they buy and sell properties owned by Jews at a
price far lower than their market value.
Macron will remain as president until May 2022. Several leaders of the parties
of the center-left (such as the Socialist Party) and center-right (The
Republicans) joined The Republic on the Move, the party he created two years
ago. After that, the Socialist Party and The Republicans electorally collapsed.
Macron's main opponent in 2022 is likely to be the same as in 2017: Marine Le
Pen, the leader of the populist National Rally.
Although Macron is widely unpopular and widely hated, he will probably use the
same slogans as in 2017: that he is the last bastion of hope against "chaos" and
"fascism." He has a strong chance of being elected again. Anyone who reads the
political program of the National Rally can see that Le Pen is not a fascist.
Also, anyone who looks at the situation in France may wonder if France has not
already begun to sink into chaos.
The sad situation that reigns in France is not all that different from that in
many other European countries. A few weeks ago, an African cardinal, Robert
Sarah, published a book, Le soir approche et déjà le jour baisse ("The evening
comes, and already the light darkens"). "At the root of the collapse of the
West", he writes, "there is a cultural and identity crisis. The West no longer
knows what it is, because it does not know and does not want to know what shaped
it, what constituted it, what it was and what it is. (...) This
self-asphyxiation leads naturally to a decadence that opens the way to new
barbaric civilizations."
That is exactly what is happening in France -- and Europe.
*Dr. Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of 27
books on France and Europe.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Four Exciting Years in Saudi Arabia
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al Awsat/August 03/2019
Saudi Arabia today is very different from what it was just a few years ago. The
page has been turned to begin a new era through a series of courageous decisions
to repeal several laws that previously dominated the local scene.
The events of the past four years have marked the end of two-thirds of a century
that were filled with social norms and government legislation that presented
obstacles to development, normal life, business, and social relations.
This series of changes began on the day the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 was announced.
Anyone can claim they were behind this change, but the change began in Saudi
Arabia when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman took on the task of development in
the government of King Salman. Since then, not a month has passed without the
issuance of new decisions addressing the concepts, legislation, services, and
the state’s relationship with its citizens and society.
We can see many examples of the resultant changes to daily life in the Kingdom;
the decision to grant women more of the rights to which they are entitled, for
example, is a story in its own right.
Saudi Arabia is betting on its development of the entire state and the economy.
It is a huge project that affects all aspects of life in the country — and it
cannot follow the old approach that was taken by the Kingdom for so many
generations.
There have been, on one hand, contradictions that reflect official ambitions,
such as giving women grants to study abroad in Western universities, and, on the
other hand, obstacles that reflect officially approved social constraints that
prevent women from many activities associated with study, work, travel, and
other activities.
In the span of just four years, life has changed greatly in Riyadh and Jeddah,
and even in smaller cities. Movie theaters have opened, women can drive cars on
public roads, forums are being held, cafes are open to all, and more women are
now employed in shopping malls than men. All of these things were forbidden to
until recently, and women would be punished if they tried to participate in
activities they were excluded from. Several official decisions issued the day
before yesterday have removed the last remaining obstacles to gender equality.
Many amendments to laws, all of which give women and men equal rights, were
announced which are probably more progressive than the civil laws affecting
women in other Arab countries.
The amendments include improvements to the rights of women in court, where they
have until now been treated more severely than men. In addition, Saudi women who
want to work will no longer require the approval of their husbands, fathers, or
legal guardians.
The list of bans and obstacles to equality that the government’s recent
decisions have removed is a long one. The sheer number, nature, and application
of the changes, alongside the fact that most people in the country have accepted
them, are proof that the Saudi leadership is wise and courageous, and can
accomplish what was until recently thought to be impossible. The fierce campaign
by some against Saudi Arabia, and the crown prince, in particular, fails to
understand the priorities of the Saudi people. It does not realize the
importance of the significant changes that are taking place inside the Kingdom,
changes that will positively affect its Arab and Islamic surroundings. This is
the project of the future for which we all care more than anything else.
UK Must Back US in Tougher Stance Against Iran
Daniel Kawczynski/Asharq Al Awsat/August 03/2019
The crisis in the Arabian Gulf with Iran seizing a British registered tanker
stems not from a tit for tat measure of the UK impounding an Iranian ship off
the coast of Gibraltar; it goes back much further than that. We have turned a
blind eye to Iran’s malign actions throughout the Middle East for so many years
that it has given them the green light to completely ignore international laws
and the world-based order and to do as they please.
Five or six years ago when discussions of a nuclear deal with Iran were first
mooted, our key allies in the Gulf visited us in London to warn us of the
consequences if the deal was to be purely focused on nuclear weapons and failed
to take into account the highly dangerous and destabilizing actions that Iran
has been inflicting on her neighbors.
The European Union and President Obama in their rush to secure a deal with the
Iranians chose to ignore these concerns and indeed to brush them under the
carpet. Concerns were raised by the likes of Benjamin Netanyahu that a
strengthened (and financially bolstered) Iran would simply support other
extremist countries in their quests for nuclear weapons. Sure enough, in recent
years we have seen Iran attempting to destabilize the government of Bahrain, a
key Gulf ally of the UK and where we have a permanent naval base.
We have seen Iran sending troops and weapons to top up the Assad regime of Syria
which has brutalized its own population. Iran continues to fund and equip
Hezbollah which is perched on the Lebanese/Israeli border. This aggressive
behavior has contributed to the area of Lebanon becoming highly unstable and
increasingly dangerous, particularly for the numerous minorities who live there.
We have also seen how Iran funding and supplying Houthi rebels in Yemen has led
to huge human misery and suffering as well as bloodshed and a drawing out of the
conflict there.
If these examples weren’t sufficient, last year it was revealed that Morocco
had decided to break off diplomatic relations with Iran following the alleged
Iranian backing of the Polisario in the Western Sahara.
These are the actions of a country completely out of control and blindly
indifferent to the suffering caused by her actions. As we leave the EU and
regain our independence and sovereignty, we will play a pivotal role in
influencing how the international community deals with serious problems such as
this.
If we follow the EU line which seeks to ignore these issues, then the seizure of
our ship is just the start of further problems down the line. If we instead seek
the support of our American partners in a more robust approach through
sanctions, we will finally make the Mullahs in Tehran realize that this behavior
is unacceptable. Given that President Trump withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Deal
over the aforementioned concerns surrounding Iran’s behavior, it is highly
likely that the United States will support us in this endeavor.
As the sole EU country with a naval base in the Gulf we have a responsibility
to ensure that the naval base is protected and expanded and that we help create
the right circumstances in the region to foster stability and peace. By ignoring
Iran’s conduct for too long, we now need a major rethink of our strategy. Much
has been made in recent years of “red lines” but, when it comes to Iran, we must
make sure that our red lines are never crossed.
Qatar’s Constant Attempts to Sow Discord between Riyadh,
Abu Dhabi
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al Awsat/August 03/2019
Has the UAE government really changed its stance on the Iran boycott and
withdrawn from the Saudi-Bahraini-US alliance? There are only two possibilities:
Yes or no.
If the answer is yes, and Abu Dhabi has indeed decided to reconcile with Tehran,
then this is its sovereign right; it is surely aware of its own interests and
this could be the right decision for it. However, if the story is a lie then the
alliance against Iran still holds.
The UAE government has said that its recent meeting with Iran was arranged in
advance and conducted with the full knowledge of other Gulf states, not in
secrecy. This version was supported by a Gulf source who told Asharq Al-Awsat
that the Iranians were trying to exaggerate the news, and that Qatar was
spreading false information while inciting the media against the UAE.
Currently, the front against Iran consists of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain,
all of whom are willing allies. Qatar, on the other hand, recently joined the
coalition under pressure from Washington, which has warned Doha against
communicating or mediating with the Iranians.
Even if the UAE has changed its stance and is now seeking to solve its problems
with Tehran, there is little to worry about because we judge governments based
on a set of stances and behaviors over a long period of time.
Throughout the past two decades, the relationship with Abu Dhabi has remained
objective, and any differences have been manageable. This is also the case with
Kuwait, Muscat and Cairo. But with Doha, things have been different. Its record
since 1995 is full of controversies in its relationships with regional states,
including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt and others.
Qatar has distinguished itself as a center of sedition in the region, and its
actions in most instances have been negative. When the four states — Saudi
Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain — decided to boycott Doha in June 2017, it
was not over differences in political stances but because Qatar had broken its
commitments and overstepped all limits to the extent of funding opposition
groups targeting Saudi Arabia. These included radicals who were granted
residency in Qatar.
Moreover, Doha has also supported and financed radical organizations in the West
and Turkey, and devoted considerable resources to the goal of overthrowing the
Saudi government. The discord is no longer over television programs, conferences
or hostile declarations, which were the type of disputes that were usually
resolved in the past.
Since the beginning of the rift with the other states, the Qataris have sought
to dismantle the alliance confronting it. They began by targeting Egypt, trying
to create doubt among Saudis over the Egyptian position; they even disseminated
audio recordings aimed at sabotaging the relationship between Riyadh and Cairo.
Many times they tried, and each time they failed.
The Qatari media then turned its attention to Abu Dhabi, seeking to cause
problems between the UAE and the Kingdom through dramatized and exaggerated news
stories, as well as outright fabricated reports. Doha also tried to cast doubt
on the UAE’s intentions in Yemen, mobilizing Yemenis to write comments critical
of Abu Dhabi in a way that gave the impression they were made under Saudi
guidance. Qatar also claimed the UAE was increasing its military presence in
Yemen, only to reverse its story and say the opposite: That the UAE was
abandoning Saudi Arabia to deal with the situation alone.
One by one, the contradictions in the Qatari stories have revealed that Doha’s
strategy is to attempt to weaken and dismantle the opposing front. At the same
time, the falsehoods have demonstrated the strength of the relationship that
binds these four capitals on Yemen and other issues. The UAE, for example, is
still present in Yemen on a military level, and is active in the coalition
against Iran, in its support for the new Sudan, and in confronting hostile
Turkish expansionism.
Qatar’s hostile policy has not changed since the mid-1990s, despite Saudi
leniency and concessions. In the 1990s and into the 2000s, it incited Al-Qaeda
groups to carry out attacks inside the Kingdom. In 2008, it joined forces with
Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi to support Yemeni groups seeking to carry out
similar strikes. Afterward, recordings of Qatari officials talking to Qaddafi
about plots to dismember the Saudi state appeared. Indeed, evidence that this
conspiracy was taking place at a time when relations between Riyadh and Doha
were still reasonable was never denied.
However, conflicts between states have limits, and states that breach these
limits can be tolerated no more. Doha now supports the Houthis in Yemen who are
attacking Riyadh, Jeddah and Makkah. It is also conspiring in the West against
Saudi Arabia and incites violence against the Kingdom’s leadership. This is the
reason for the dispute and break-up with Doha.
Far from succeeding in its efforts to create discord, Qatar is the reason for
the exceptional cooperation among Abu Dhabi, Manama, Cairo and Riyadh — a
success story that has widened into other areas of the relationship.
Qatar’s efforts, which are bound to fail, have now been exposed in the court of
public opinion.
Tehran could push Europe closer to the US if it continues
its provocation
Raghida Dergham/The National/August 03/2019
The divide between the US and its partners, and Iran and its proxies, is too
wide to bridge
The next chapter in the US-Iranian confrontation will undoubtedly fall upon
Europe. Angered by US sanctions on its foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and
by what it perceives to be failed promises from Europe, Iran intends to issue an
ultimatum to countries signed up to Instex, the special purpose vehicle for
trade. The ultimatum is likely to give the Europeans until mid-August to
activate Instex for oil revenues, or Iran will swiftly withdraw from the nuclear
deal. Tehran’s goal is to push the Europeans into compelling Washington to agree
to its demands, even if through a partial side deal that would allow Iran to
sell its oil through the European trade mechanism. The risk, however, is that
the Trump administration might refuse to bow down to what it will likely see as
blackmail of its partners and a clear attempt to drive a wedge between the US
and its European allies. In that case, this would increase the likelihood of
military action – something that Tehran is preparing for.
Yadullah Jawani, political deputy to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
commander, vowed that if Washington made any miscalculation against Iran, Tehran
would be at the forefront of a regionwide response, involving proxies “from the
Eastern Mediterranean to the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden”.
Israel seems to have expanded its operations against Iranian deployments to Iraq
in addition to Syria. Israel has also threatened Lebanon from the halls of the
UN Security Council, insinuating that it would target Beirut’s seaport amid
claims Hezbollah is using it to smuggle Iranian arms, which is denied by
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. In Iraq, reports this week suggested Israel
had attacked Iranian positions with a view to undercut the Iranian project to
establish a land corridor to the Mediterranean via Syria and Iraq.
Israel and Iran are already engaged in wars by proxy in Syria and Lebanon.
Should a war between the US and Iran erupt, this equation could change in a
radical way, with Israel in direct confrontation with Iran. Yet even if a
US-Iranian deal is struck, Israel seems intent on aborting the Iranian project
in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria, whether through accords or military operations. On
the other side of the trenches, Iran continues to issue threats and mobilise its
armed proxies from the Mediterranean to the Gulf. Despite operating irregular
armies and militias in sovereign Arab countries, Iran’s actions are met with few
protests from the UN, the EU, Russia, China or India from the perspective of
violating international law.
Mohammad Javad Zarif, whose signature smiling diplomacy charmed Americans and
Europeans during Barack Obama’s tenure, seems to have now exhausted the patience
of the US
US sources familiar with the workings of Instex say there is a big gap between
how Iranians understand the mechanism and how Europeans see it. The EU, they
say, has tried repeatedly to make it clear to the Iranian side that it has too
many expectations of the mechanism and that its goal is not to circumvent US
sanctions but to facilitate legitimate trade in relation to humanitarian goods.
The US Treasury has been clear that any attempt to skirt sanctions by any entity
will be faced with penalties. This position has prompted European banks and
businesses, especially in Germany, to pull the brakes on any possible push by
their governments to comply with Iranian demands.
The US position on relaxing restrictions on Iran, meanwhile, are almost always
accompanied by tough positions. US National Security Adviser John Bolton,
commenting on Washington’s decision on Wednesday to exempt three Iranian
civilian nuclear facilities from sanctions, said this was a “short 90-day
extension only”.
US President Donald Trump’s policy is proceeding on parallel tracks: sanctions
and maximum pressure on one hand, and on the other, giving the Europeans some
time to convince the Iranians to negotiate by granting such exemptions. However,
any exemptions within the Instex framework will not touch on core sanctions and
will be based on humanitarian goods, according to sources.
Mr Zarif, whose signature smiling diplomacy charmed Americans and Europeans
during Barack Obama’s tenure, seems to have now exhausted the patience of the
US. Indeed, he has switched from diplomacy to threats, showing his true colours.
Some have described him as a loose cannon. But this does not mean that the
Europeans are on board with the US sanctions on Mr Zarif, with many expressing
concerns about the very principle of sanctioning a chief diplomat.
However, what the Europeans do not accept is Mr Zarif’s warnings against
Washington’s interference in Instex and threats to withdraw from the nuclear
agreement. Nor do they accept Iran’s censure for their “failure” to convince the
Trump administration to relax or lift the sanctions, at a time when Tehran is
pressing ahead with its strategy of provoking Washington into military action.
Tehran could push the Europeans into the lap of the US, especially when it comes
to protecting maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf region.
The Europeans, for their part, are anxiously watching the Iranian escalation in
the Gulf and statements by IRGC officials threatening to use Iranian proxies
from the Mediterranean to the Gulf, from the Houthis in Yemen to Lebanon, but
they can do little to influence these developments. European differences over
the US leadership of a military taskforce to secure navigation in the Gulf and
the Strait of Hormuz could lead Germany to stay out of the alliance. However, it
could also trigger a confrontation. Indeed, in the absence of clarity regarding
the chain of command, there is a collision waiting to happen. The issue must be
quickly resolved and a clear chain of command established for the ships,
submarines and other assets that will be deployed to protect tankers.
So far, the divide between the US and its partners, and Iran and its proxies, is
too wide to bridge. Tehran has no real allies in this battle, because China does
not want to take sides and Russia is trying to play the role of “honest broker”
without yet succeeding in convincing either side to make concessions. Yet Iran
is mobilising its IRGC-linked proxies, declaring that the theatre of war covers
everywhere between the Mediterranean and the Gulf, in complete disregard for the
sovereignty of independent Arab states, and the deadlock continues.
Nigeria has no answer after 10 years of Boko Haram
Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/August 03, 2019
It is 10 years since Boko Haram transformed from radical Islamist sect to
terrorist insurgency group, coinciding with the rise of its current leader,
Abubakar Shekau. He succeeded Mohammed Yusuf (Abu Yusuf Al-Barnawi), a preacher
fiercely critical of Nigeria’s wealth inequality and corruption despite the
country’s return to democracy in 1999, which many believed would quickly remedy
these ills.
In the first decade, the group set about fulfilling its name — decrying Western
education and its influences while propagating radical Islamist messages. Boko
Haram means “Western education is forbidden” in the Hausa language spoken in
parts of northern Nigeria. The group fed on societal frustrations, poverty,
illiteracy and widening inequality. Within a few years, Boko Haram became
popular and increasingly antagonistic to non-Muslims and the Nigerian state. It
became apparent that its escalating confrontations with state security forces
were a threat to a young federal republic.
The group was banned in 2009, leading to widespread rioting and clashes with
security forces that left more than 300 people dead. Its leader and dozens of
its members also perished at the hands of Nigeria law enforcement, the same sort
of blood and violence that has become a part of Boko Haram’s creed. Over 10
years, it has killed more than 35,000 people, injured thousands and displaced at
least 2 million in an asymmetric “holy war” against the Nigerian state.
Just last week, a Boko Haram attack on a funeral procession in northeastern
Nigeria claimed more than 60 lives. A few days earlier, a group of men on
motorcycles opened fire on mourners returning from a burial, killing nearly two
dozen, in an attack also linked to the group. A Boko Haram timeline features
increasingly frequent massacres, shootouts, suicide bombings, kidnappings and
even prison breaks.
Before the notorious Chibok kidnappings that attracted worldwide attention, Boko
Haram attacks were few and far between, but since 2015 they have been a weekly,
if not a daily, occurrence. Some victims may be part of the state security
apparatus, the regional joint task force or local militias and vigilante groups,
but the bulk of deaths and injuries affect innocent civilians. The Chibok
tragedy has left a pervasive sense of despair across Nigeria because citizens
are finding it difficult to trust that the federal government can protect the
citizenry and eradicate Boko Haram.
Years of counter-insurgency operations by the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF)
between Nigeria, Chad, Niger, and Cameroon, with support from 300 US advisers,
have neither eradicated Boko Haram nor slowed its operations. There is no
shortage of manpower given the involvement of local militias and a private
military company, but the group remains active and appears to show no signs of
waning.
At the heart of these failures are reports of low morale among poorly equipped
task force troops as well as porous Sahel-West Africa borders and rampant
corruption, which allow Boko Haram to stock up on weaponry sourced from Daesh
strongholds in Libya. Other factors, such as poor coordination, the lack of
coherent strategies and failure to attain agreed objectives, have made success
elusive for anti-Boko Haram operations.
Over 10 years, Boko Haram has killed more than 35,000 people, injured thousands
and displaced at least 2 million in an asymmetric “holy war” against the
Nigerian state.
In the meantime, the social and economic ills that gave rise to the group remain
as pervasive as ever, especially in rural, largely insular communities
far-removed from centers of wealth or urban areas such as Abuja, Lagos, Port
Harcourt, Ibadan and Kano. The group has always thrived on these frustrations,
despite Nigeria being resource-rich with vast oil reserves, natural gas, metal
ores and arable land used to grow both food and cash crops. In fact, Nigeria’s
economy is the largest in Africa and with a population of 200 million there is
enormous potential as a market for goods and services as well as a massive labor
pool.
The construction of a $15 billion oil refinery and the near eradication of polio
are some of the bright spots in a country beleaguered by abject poverty,
corruption, bribery, poor infrastructure and illiteracy. Boko Haram also benefit
from the recruitment of former prisoners and the radicalization of
disillusioned, poverty-stricken youths and young adults, swayed by the group’s
rhetoric. Ironically, the group seeks to rid Nigeria of the same ills and
lawlessness that have benefited its insurgency activities.
The lack of up-to-date coverage and credible reports have resulted in some
confusion about who or what Boko Haram is, making it difficult to pinpoint how
it operates. The Nigerian government has claimed since 2015 that Boko Haram has
been degraded and defeated. Recent attacks have proved otherwise, which have
given rise to a new narrative that these were remnants of Boko Haram, escaped
convicts, elements of Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb and other Sahel-based terrorists.
This narrative fits reports that the Boko Haram “split” in mid-2016 into two
Daesh-linked factions, with one of them, the Islamic State West Africa Province
(ISWAP) receiving more formal backing. Accordingly, what the rest of the world
refers to as Boko Haram is, at least according to the Nigerian government, a
loose coalition of dangerous elements operating in parts of North Africa, across
the Sahel and in West Africa. Unfortunately, the international response
targeting these elements pales in comparison to the anti-Daesh offensives in
Iraq and Syria.
The MNJTF is the only major military force confronting a dangerous, deeply
embedded, heavily armed and well connected Boko Haram in its many various
shades. Unfortunately, one of the members of this task force, Cameroon, is
facing a separatist crisis within its own borders, which has escalated to a
point where parts of the country are now lawless and ungovernable.
As in Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq, the Daesh playbook involves taking advantage
of these types of crisis, taking root, recruiting, expanding and then
splintering off, metastisizing into a massive network of self-financed
insurgency groups that operate independent of Daesh central. The crisis in
Cameroon would make it impossible for troops to be recalled, as it would weaken
the frontlines while also leaving a gaping hole within its borders that Daesh-backed
groups have proved capable of exploiting.
It can only be hoped that the $593 million sale of US A-29 reconnaissance and
support aircraft as well as accompanying advanced weaponry will lend some teeth
to the task force’s counter-insurgency operations. However, most countries have
shied away from directly lending any type of military assistance in favor of
humanitarian aid. In the absence of a sustained multination campaign targeting
Boko Haram’s bases, arsenals, financial networks, trafficking routes, training
camps, known leadership, community ties and known headquarters, exorcising the
group from West Africa will continue to be a very difficult task.
Nigeria and its fellow task force members are in a fight against a coalition of
seasoned guerrilla warfare veterans drummed out of Syria, Iraq and parts of
Libya that have become more chaotic because of the recent attacks on Tripoli.
They now relish the opportunities in a region caught fast asleep and
ill-prepared to confront the horrors of modern asymmetric warfare, particularly
its indiscriminate targeting of civilians.
*Hafed Al-Ghwell is a non-resident senior fellow with the Foreign Policy
Institute at the John Hopkins University School of Advanced International
Studies. He is also senior adviser at the international economic consultancy
Maxwell Stamp and at the geopolitical risk advisory firm Oxford Analytica, a
member of the Strategic Advisory Solutions International Group in Washington DC
and a former adviser to the board of the World Bank Group. Twitter: @HafedAlGhwell
The arms race has new legs
Cornelia Meyer//Arab News/August 03/2019
Donald Trump was as good as his word. On Feb. 1, 2019, the US president formally
suspended the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with Russia.
President Vladimir Putin reciprocated the following day. On Aug. 2, six months
after the suspension, Trump formally withdrew the US from the treaty.
The INF treaty was signed by US President Ronald Reagan and Soviet President
Mikhail Gorbachev in December 1987, and came into force in June 1988. It banned
ground-launched missiles with a range of 500km to 5,500km kilometres, along with
their launchers. By May 1991, 2,700 missiles had been eliminated, and 10 years
of on-site compliance inspections followed.
Trump said he withdrew from the treaty because Russia had broken it, in
particular by deploying its 9M729 missile. NATO Secretary General Jens
Stoltenberg broadly supports the US position and agreed that Russia had violated
the INF, but he said NATO would react in a “measured way.”
The hawks in the Trump administration, National Security Adviser John Bolton and
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, strongly support the US withdrawal from the INF.
Democrats criticised it.
Some arms control experts fear the end of the INF could be the dawn of a new
arms race. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned about the loss of “an
invaluable brake on nuclear war.” Indeed, US Defense Secretary Mark Esper said
on Saturday he was in favor of placing ground-launched, intermediate-range
missiles in Asia “relatively soon.” The US is expected to test a ground-launched
cruise missile within the next few weeks, and an intermediate-range ballistic
missile in November.
Nobody can want a new nuclear arms race, which would heighten the danger of a
war fought with such weapons and a catastrophic outcome for humanity.
Observers also fear that next on Trump’s agenda will be leaving the New START,
the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which is the other pillar of the
arms-control infrastructure. New START was signed by US President Barack Obama
and Russian President Sergei Medvedev in 2010, came into force in 2011 and
expires in 2021. It limits both countries to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and
700 missiles and bombers. Democrats in Congress urged Trump to renew New START
in 2021, but Putin said in June that Washington showed no interest in talks to
extend the treaty. At the same time he predicted a “global catastrophe, if
Washington keeps dismantling the global arms control regime.”
So much for those who own and control this formidable weaponry. It is true that
Russia has violated the INF. The question is whether withdrawing from it rather
than engaging in negotiation is throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
Many Europeans look at the US action with trepidation; they remember the nuclear
threat from the Cold War, when Europe was the main theater for the deployment of
short and intermediate range nuclear weapons, and its people feared destruction
if NATO faced off against the Warsaw Pact on European soil and with nuclear
arms. Nowhere was this more acutely felt than in Germany, divided by the Iron
Curtain into the Federal Republic in the West and the Democratic Republic in the
East. It is no surprise, then, that German politicians and others elsewhere in
Western Europe are skeptical about the end of the INF, and would hate to see New
START go the same way.
Trump is right to call Russia out on its violations of INF. He also has a point
when he says China poses a nuclear threat in the Pacific. India, Pakistan and
North Korea are nuclear powers too. It may therefore make sense to negotiate a
broader framework to limit nuclear weapons, except that Trump dislikes
multilateral negotiations and frameworks. He prefers bilateral bartering, which
brings the US the strategic advantage reserved for the strong.
Nevertheless, nobody can want a new nuclear arms race, which would heighten the
danger of a war fought with such weapons and a catastrophic outcome for
humanity. May wiser counsel prevail, and persuade the powers-that-be back to the
negotiating table. One must be allowed to dream.
*Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert.
Twitter: @MeyerResources